Forum: DarkAges BBS

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Saturday, November 29, 2025 21:53:25

AWUS01 KWNH 292153
FFGMPD
TXZ000-300351-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1254
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292151Z - 300351Z

Summary...Thunderstorms near Houston TX are expected to grow
upscale and potentially backbuild/train with time. Hourly amounts
to 2.5" with local totals to 5" could lead to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Satellite and radar imagery indicate the formation of
showers and thunderstorms near and east of a baroclinic zone
oriented northwest-southeast across Southeast TX within a region
of 850 hPa confluence near I-10. ML/MU CAPE to the west and
southwest is 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is near 40 kts,
which has led to right movers near IAH itself. The atmosphere is
saturated, considering precipitable water values (1.25-1.5" per
GPS data) within a region of 5630 meter 1000-500 hPa thickness
values. Hourly rain amounts of are up to 0.5-1" in the past hour
near Stagecoach TX, as of the time of this discussion's writing.

The 18z HREF moreso than the 12z REFS indicates the continued
building of thunderstorms in this area, with some further increase
in convective coverage, which may show backbuilding, training
character with time. Instability could erode/retreat westward
with time depending upon the degree of convective coverage,
essentially stalling the front west of Houston. Cell mergers are
also possible as less organized convection moves more northeast
while more organized convection moves more to the east. Given the
parameters, hourly amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are
possible over the next several hours, with the magnitude most in
line with the 12z ARW and 20z HRRR guidance. There is a chance
late in the MPD period of convection trying to form across
northeast TX presently near and ahead of an advancing cold front
approaching the southeast TX convective area, which could lead to
more cell mergers at or beyond 04z. Since the 12z ARW and 18z
HREF are closer to the convective evolution thus far, used their
guidance for the defined MPD area. Widely scattered instances of
flash flooding are considered possible, particularly in the
Houston metropolitan area.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Vhatwq8jLS3mZorPAMnYdTnKTx4EfsxLABG-GVOUpKylJtFpPdI52knRINntAjzbM-p= HzQOyXL5ZWPQujCk3_4mvYw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30579626 30439491 29959459 29489490 29339650=20
29869717=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Sunday, November 30, 2025 03:57:29

AWUS01 KWNH 300357
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-301000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1255
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas affected...Central and Upper Texas Coastal Plain...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300400Z - 301000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, pre-frontal cells with rates of 2"/hr
eventually merge with south-southeastward pressing cold front
convection resulting in localized 2-4" totals in 1-3 hours.=20
Isolated flash flooding remains possible, especially near urban
centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9um SWIR highlights a few low level
boundaries that will remain the focus of scattered thunderstorm
activity through the overnight period. The main being the surging
cold front being reinforced by favorable upper-level orientations
to support steepening of theta-E gradient while increasing
northerly surface wind flow to over 20-25kts nearly counter to the
weaker but solid onshore flow. Currently active convection along
the leading edge of the front is slow moving from Burleson to Polk
county as the winds are not fully intersecting with the line, but
will likely be propagating southward in the next hour or so. The
other boundary is the return moisture plume off the western Gulf
(which arches similar to the Lower TX Gulf coast before angling
east- northeast just south of the aforementioned convection). Tds
in the upper 60s to near 70 can be traced best in CIRA LPW sfc-850
and 850-700mb layers covering much of the MPD area of concern
across the Central and Upper Texas Coastal Plain.

Onshore flow is also increasing to 15-20kts resulting in
frictional convergence near coast. Conditionally unstable airmass
with MLCAPEs of 1000-1250 J/kg remain weakly capped but there are
some signs in satellite imagery of some weak cu field near
Victoria, TX as well as an isolated weakening supercells
northeast of Galveston Bay. The merging of the boundaries is also
allowing a westward expansion of new development upstream into
Bastrop/Caldwell county vicinity.=20

Total deep moisture of 1.5" as noted in the CIRA LPW is loaded
below 700mb, but there is solid deep saturation. These isolated
cells driven by frictional convergence will be slow moving and
eventually capable of 1-2"/hr rates. Spotty 2-3" totals will
occur in 1-2hrs, but as they mature and expand the slower moving
cells along the cold front will have started increased forward
speed and with very high low level moisture flux convergence will
have the capability of 1-1.25"/15min rainfall totals as they
intersect/merge with the cells across the Plain.

00z HREF probabilities continue to suggest 3"/3hr totals in the
20-30% range (3"/6hr over 50%) which is fairly impressive given
the strength of the updraft due to instability is fairly limited.=20
While the overall coverage will continue to be limited, spots of
3-4" totals are probable through 09z. This places sufficient
overlap of FFG exceedance (as 1hr FFG is 2.5-3" and 3hr is 3-4")
for possible localized incident or two of flash/rapid inundation
flooding. This only further increases with intersection with
urban centers, such as Victoria, Houston and Beaumont.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6eBqZJFeXYwfdfjOanroH9GQeQtbydrQfNUR442JL4eOoRDBCnP5-W_eKdR2izXE3AJE= Wxq3reM5uV59a3QArZIE_ho$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30999472 30719393 30099362 29749380 29519420=20
29359466 28499607 27779725 27969777 28499795=20
29529752 29879714 30199681 30729602=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Tuesday, December 02, 2025 00:36:34

AWUS01 KWNH 020035
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-020634-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1256
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 PM EST Mon Dec 01 2025

Areas affected...portions of the central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020034Z - 020634Z

Summary...A combination of cell training and backbuilding should
continue to lead to hourly rain amounts to 1.75" with local totals
to 4", which could cause flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Instability across portions of the central Gulf Coast
continues to rise ahead of a negatively-tilted shortwave across
OK. Precipitable water values are ~1.6" per GPS data and MU CAPE
values of 500+ J/kg lie across the southeast tip of LA and
continue shifting north towards the MS/AL barrier islands. Radar
estimates from LIX/Hammond LA indicate that hourly amounts peaked
near 1.75" not far from the eastern suburbs of New Orleans
recently, with local totals above 2.5" so far. Occasional hourly
rain amounts to 1.5" have been seen in backbuilding convection in
southernmost AL. Effective bulk shear of 25-45 kts lurks across
the area which is helping to form a band within an area of 850 hPa
confluence.

The band is showing some signs of shifting northward across
southern AL and slightly eastward in southeast LA. Additional
activity south of the LA/MS coasts within a convergence zone which
extends from northwest Cuba towards the central Gulf Coast could
advect northward towards portions of this area in the next several
hours and cause additional issues. The guidance has not been
ideal in this region thus far -- too far north and too light --
though the 18z hi-res NAM appears to have the best idea, so used
it as a starting point for the MPD bounds, making some adjustments
based on radar reflectivity trends. The region has been dry, so
flash flood guidance values are high. Hourly amounts to 1.75" and
local totals to 4" appear possible where cells train and/or
backbuild, which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6SdogcIUxTtroqQTUwxSALeN9Fo_uMvC5I4pW6eAAjX9DWw67VnyMfB31nkTA5_xaSPt= yY_XxORQJb-wb9BRCh179PU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31928616 31298582 30558670 30248743 30078846=20
29938870 29778905 29439024 29689078 30768934=20
31778728=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Friday, June 05, 2026 09:46:45

AWUS01 KWNH 050946
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-051400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0322
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 AM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...Northern Missouri...Southern and Eastern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050945Z - 051400Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of locally backbuilding and training
convection will continue to track across portions of northern
Missouri and to a lesser extent southern and eastern Iowa through
the mid-morning hours. Localized rainfall rates as high as 1.5+
inches per hour falling on locally moist/sensitive grounds will
maintain a threat for some additional flash flooding, but
conditions should gradually improve by later this morning.

DISCUSSION...A wave of low pressure and associated mid-level vort
centered over southwest Iowa continues to track gradually off to
the northeast along a well-defined surface trough that has some
weak frontal characteristics. This continues to facilitate a
mature cold-topped convective complex across northern Missouri,
with a more elongated and broken axis of convection seen
downstream across southern and eastern Iowa.

The thermodynamic profile has stabilized a bit relative to earlier
in the night, but there continues to be a nose of MUCAPE values on
the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg across northern Missouri and
southern Iowa which is being driven by a persistent southwest
low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kt. This coupled with the high PW
environment with values near 1.75 inches continues to favor
rainfall rates reaching as high as 1.5+ inches/hour.

The 06Z consensus of hires CAMs suggest a gradual decline in
convective organization and intensity going toward and after 12Z
this morning which will be largely driven by decreasing CAPE and
eventually a decrease in the low-level jet, but there will still
be at least a few more hours of locally heavy rainfall. This will
include some concerns for additional backbuilding and
cell-training across portions of northern Missouri in particular.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3+ inches will be possible.

As a result, some additional areas of flash flooding may occur
across northern Missouri, with the threat overall a bit lower over
southern and especially eastern Iowa where the antecedent
conditions are not as sensitive.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6o2jvNMC_LDlzj9UdbKdHs9Xcs_PkrRyrJ_9zrDpwQpI7iAJoUuCZsQ33RpcNM1BuDt_= 5I1Uok06zP7AbqwvkwPZSTg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42689099 42399012 40999061 40129143 39619229=20
39389360 39619490 39919526 40249513 40569434=20
40999333 41809226=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to [email protected] on Sunday, June 28, 2026 08:20:08

AWUS01 KWNH 280820
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-281400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0544
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern Missouri southeast through Eastern
Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280818Z - 281400Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand and train
southeast through the morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are
expected, leading to a corridor of 2-4" of rain with locally
higher amounts possible. This will likely lead to instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows
rapidly expanding convection organizing along a line from near St.
Louis, MO southeast to near Knoxville, TN. This convection is
intensifying along a weak surface trough and aided by impressive
ascent downstream of a convectively induced shortwave lifting
through western KY, which is overlapping the isentropic ascent
driven by the 30 kt WSW 850mb LLJ. This LLJ is also advecting
elevated thermodynamics (PWs over 2" and MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg)
northeastward to support heavy rain rates. Recent hourly rainfall
measured via MRMS has been as high as 1.5" in parts of eastern TN.

The high-res CAMs are struggling with the current evolution, but
the most recent HRRR has finally started to capture the ongoing
convection. Regardless of the CAM output, there is high confidence
that convection will continue to blossom as evidenced by a steady
surge in coverage and probability within the LightningCast
product. As the LLJ is expected to only gradually veer through
morning, it will maintain potent thermodynamic advection to
support regenerating and intensifying thunderstorms. Despite
modest CAM agreement, HREF and REFS probabilities for 1"/hr
(2"/hr) rain rates increase to 50-70% (10-20%) through morning.
These storms are expected to train SW to NE along the weak surface
boundary thanks to nearly parallel mean 0-6km winds, with the
veering of the LLJ causing Corfidi vector collapse to around 5 kts
suggesting an increased risk for backbuilding into the greater
instability. Together, this poses a strong training mechanism to
create corridors of rainfall exceeding 3" (40% chance) with
isolated totals approaching 5" possible (10-20% chance).

Training of these intense rain rates will pose a flash flood risk
for the next several hours. However, this threat is made even
greater by extremely vulnerable soils due to recent heavy
rainfall. 3-hr FFG is as low as 0.25" in some areas, and broadly
less than 1", for which the HREF indicates has a 60-80% chance of
exceedance. Additionally, this region has sensitive terrain that
makes it even more vulnerable to flash flooding, so any training
during the next several hours will likely result in flash flood
impacts.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!958DrSD2mE08uZHvuilGd26uaScbZr27Sbb5sIIdCFB-4pRLHyk33NY8HTGZmM4C0mYv= yOQST8U2PoAafSTFzyBQeak$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...MRX...OHX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39478970 39148851 38598654 38218526 37868440=20
37108305 36518268 35958281 35568340 35448436=20
35898580 36658734 37248886 37909025 38959173=20
39429135=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to [email protected] on Sunday, June 28, 2026 14:02:17

AWUS01 KWNH 281402
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0545
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Areas affected...Southern KY...Northeast TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281400Z - 281900Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
to locally backbuild and train over the same area for a few more
hours. Portions of mainly southern KY and into northeast TN are
likely to see more areas of flash flooding which may be locally
significant going through the early to mid-afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...The mid-morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
long-lived northwest/southeast axis of cold-topped convection
continuing to drop down across areas of southern KY through
northeast TN. This axis of convection has been locally
backbuilding and training over the same areas for several hours,
and it continues to feature pockets of extremely heavy rainfall
rates which have occasionally reached 2 to 3 inches/hour.

The latest RAP data shows the convection traversing a well-defined
instability gradient which is aligned with a surface
trough/outflow boundary. MLCAPE values across western KY and
adjacent areas of western and central TN are on the order of 1500
to 2000 J/kg which is bumping up against the convectively
reinforced cold pool across southern KY through northeast TN.
Westerly low-level flow at 850mb continues to be on the order of
20 to 30 kts which is favoring an isentropic
ascent/frontogenetical forcing component to the convective threat,
and especially with the modest, but persistent moisture and
instability transport.

Given the setup, and with PWs of as much as 2.0 to 2.25 inches,
the rainfall rates will likely continue to be quite extreme with
the stronger convective cores and capable of reaching 2 to 3
inches/hour. The good news though is that the cloud top
temperatures do appear to be leveling off just a bit, and with
some slackening of the westerly low-level flow, the ongoing
convection should begin to gradually weaken fairly soon.

Regardless, some localized additional rainfall totals may reach 3
to 4+ inches through mid-afternoon. This will support more areas
of flash flooding, some of which may be significant, given the
ongoing considerable runoff problems, sensitive soil conditions,
and terrain-driven considerations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5t1un91l-4kHcw-kM2rOEps0jSK9u8Tdlpa8YNhwW2cP3Eh0N1V2LvK7-xUqGbu6B9d_= duyBhPdzKuIa5IXufmegSFs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37508521 37248416 36488320 35868294 35498352=20
35558434 36028510 36728582 37268590=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to [email protected] on Sunday, June 28, 2026 17:28:06

AWUS01 KWNH 281728
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-282325-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0546
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281725Z - 282325Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of locally slow-moving showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through early this
evening. Locally high rainfall rates are expected which may lead
to a few instances of flash flooding. This may include some
localized urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a weak area of low
pressure situated over eastern OH which is slowly advancing along
a quasi-stationary front draped from the OH Valley eastward across
the central Appalachians and portions of the Mid-Atlantic region.
A substantial amount of moisture is pooled along the front with
PWs as high as 1.75 to 2.0 inches, and while there has been
substantial early day cloud cover, recently GOES-E visible
satellite imagery is showing some breaks in the cloud cover across
southwest PA down through central WV and portions of western VA.
This has allowed for some uptick in boundary layer instability
with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg in place.

Additional surface heating will favor a further destabilization
process over the next few hours, and this coupled with modest
frontal convergence and localized upslope flow over the higher
terrain of the Appalachians/Blue Ridge will support the
development and expansion of scattered areas of showers and
thunderstorms. Already the latest radar imagery shows some broken
shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of the northern
WV Panhandle and southwest PA.

Any convection this afternoon through this evening is expected to
be rather slow-moving, but also relatively shallow. This will
support some higher efficiency/warm rain potential for locally
elevated rainfall rates. The multi-model CAMs including those from
the HREF and REFS support some rainfall rates reaching 1 to 2
inches/hour. Some potential will exist for some convective cells
to become locally anchored near the front and over the terrain
itself, and this will support a concern for locally excessive
rainfall totals that could reach as high as 2 to 3+ inches.

Given the localized rainfall potential and relatively low FFG
values, a few instances of flash flooding will be possible. This
may also include some urban impact potential across areas of
southwest PA near the Pittsburgh metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7CbbC108mW4JbhtjmsvjheyaN8nFg45O2m0-Ci79-R2sCUYybXgjj316V6eYxMS80zvs= 3kifiD4KPhctnz33HnUMICg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40878036 40817919 40017845 39147811 37807809=20
37037856 36707914 36738001 37238095 38238133=20
39388129 40338101=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to [email protected] on Sunday, June 28, 2026 20:03:20

AWUS01 KWNH 282003
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and Central/Eastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282000Z - 290200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms with locally high rainfall rates
should lead to a few instances of flash flooding in the southern
Mid-Atlantic through this evening, particularly for urban areas.

DISCUSSION...As of 20Z there is a weak surface low over eastern VA
with lee side troughing extending down through the NC Piedmont.
This is ahead of a mid-level trough axis pushing east over the
southern Appalachians. This is a warm/moist sector with abundant
moisture (PW of 2 to 2.2") and strong surface based instability
(SBCAPE 2000 J/kg in eastern VA and 3000 J/kg in south-central
NC). Also, there is an MCV associated with the morning flood
activity in KY/TN currently tracking south of Charlotte, NC and
outflow/sea breeze in eastern NC from ongoing activity.

Forcing from the mid-level trough axis will continue to promote
peak diurnal convective development that organizes somewhat in
20-30kt bulk shear and 20kt mean layer westerly flow. While most
convection will be somewhat progressive, there is a risk for
repeating activity/cell mergers. Hourly rates should continue to
peak in the 1-2"/hr range. FFG is generally 2-3"/hr, so the main
threat areas should be for urban areas including Richmond, Hampton
Roads, the NC Triangle. Localized flash flooding should be
expected through this evening. Activity may last through the
evening and require a followup discussion.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!992Kx42emq-1s1Zj0lFNQxPIFIXLALOyMDzqcrxQ6s_ZpKduqkfAuO3TIRJuE30s76jl= RWRghr_J2npH4MvCOHQTVdM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38067728 38037654 37937544 37437518 35817545=20
35067609 34517670 34167822 34147944 34748093=20
36397971 37047876 37667812=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thursday, June 25, 2026 00:43:41

AWUS01 KWNH 250043
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250641-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0518
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
842 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...southwestern Nebraska, northwestern Kansas, and
northeastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250041Z - 250641Z

Summary...Increasing coverage of thunderstorms will occur in
tandem with increasing flash flood potential through 06Z/1a
central.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts scattered
thunderstorm development across northeastern Colorado (near Akron)
and adjacent areas of southwestern Nebraska (near North Platte and
Ogallala). The storms were exhibiting mainly cellular modes so
far in their development, which isn't surprising given
supercellular wind profiles, steep lapse rates, minimal inhibition
(keeping initial development isolated in nature) and 1-1.4 inch PW
values. Locally heavy rainfall was also noted near the
stronger/more dominant activity, with spots of 1 inch/hr rain
rates estimated per MRMS. Flash flood potential exists on an
isolated basis in the short term.

Strong low-level confluence into this region of convection will
combine with minimal inhibition to aid in expanding convective
coverage through the evening hours. While confidence is high that
coverage will increase, convective mode is a bit uncertain. The
most likely scenario is for storms to form a mix of clusters and
linear segments, with occasional mergers promoting locally
prolonged rainfall rates and attendant flash flood risk. FFG
thresholds are in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range (lowest in southwestern
NE and western Kansas), and as storms evolve (both mode-wise and
with southeastward movement toward a slightly more moist airmass),
the likelihood of local FFG exceedance will increase with time.=20
Flash flooding is possible as storms migrate east/southeastward
through the discussion area through 06Z/1a central time. Most
convection should reach the NE/KS border region through 04Z/11p
central and perhaps reach I-70 in northern Kansas through 07Z or
so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6M5qZNHvvNLF5NrG8u6WnCwdh_6Rm0Ys3THMkOk6x1AuvF0fTIhHidMP4rFL3cdfdDXX= Tubflp77cari_y5mWFOjweM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41619976 41009841 39659768 38939788 38760003=20
38680185 39520305 40110341 41090317 41540172=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thursday, June 25, 2026 06:04:44

AWUS01 KWNH 250604
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-251200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0519
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...High Plains of Colorado through central Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 250602Z - 251200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand overnight with
hourly rainfall of 1-2+". Training of this convection could
produce 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts. Instances of
flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows rapidly
expanding thunderstorms from the Front Range of Colorado eastward
through north-central Kansas. This convection is blossoming ahead
of a wave of low pressure and along/north of a surface front
analyzed by WPC. Increasing S/SE low-level flow analyzed both by
regional VWPs and the SPC RAP is lifting northwest into front,
providing both isentropic and upslope mesoscale ascent, aiding the
already robust large-scale lift produced through the RRQ of an
upper jet streak and an impressive shortwave pushing east. This
deep layer lift is acting upon favorable thermodynamics to support
heavy rainfall, resulting in recent hourly rainfall measured via
MRMS to be more than 2 inches in some areas of the Colorado High
Plains.

During the next several hours, convective coverage is likely to
continue to expand as the LLJ surges above 30 kts to draw PWs of
1.2 to 1.4 inches (above the daily 90th percentile) northwest
coincident with MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. As the surface boundary
drops southward, it will additionally interact with these intense thermodynamics, maintaining an extremely favorable convergence
axis for thunderstorm redevelopment while an MCV and the surface
low force some locally enhanced acceleration of the LLJ to drive
more impressive kinematics. The entire region appears primed for
heavy rainfall tonight, and this is reflected by high-res
agreement in clusters of storms, or a more cohesive MCS (on 45 kts
of bulk shear) pushing E/SE, while additional development occurs
within upslope flow into the terrain. This suggests an elevated
training risk, and with hourly rainfall likely (40-70% chance)
exceeding 1"/hr as progged by both the HREF and REFS, This could
produce 2-4" of rain (20-40% chance) with isolated totals around
5".

Across portions of the High Plains of CO and into western KS,
0-10cm soil moisture is above the 95th percentile according to
NASA SPoRT. In these areas, 3-hr FFG is less than 1.5", for which
the HREF indicates has a greater than 50% chance of exceedance.
Any slow moving storms or training of higher rainfall will create
the greatest flash flood risk, but the steady increase in
convective coverage so far tonight suggests that flash flooding is
becoming likely for parts of the region.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7ud-R4qLMcIQozUi77J1NWb3DYNc_Kp_YpUKfvwzCF_e85VohlWrjvyu2axowQOveBjh= 525UwdOVVGm2dtK9woLOPKs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...PUB...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40640448 40580221 40470065 40259936 40049859=20
39479755 38389767 37759803 37309924 37210051=20
37400140 37810189 38960311 39400397 39470475=20
39530533 39910564 40280549=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thursday, June 25, 2026 08:48:27

AWUS01 KWNH 250848
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-251400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0520
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...far southern KS, northern OK, northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250846Z - 251400Z

Summary...Training showers and thunderstorms will expand through
early morning with hourly rainfall of 1-2" possible. This heavy
rain falling atop saturated soils could result in flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows a narrow
corridor of showers and thunderstorms developing from near Alva,
OK (KAVK) east-southeast to Fayetteville, AR (KFYV). This fresh
convection is blossoming along the strong convergence axis on the
nose of the intensifying LLJ, which is now analyzed via regional
VWPs and the SPC RAP to be 20-25 kts from the south. These winds
have shown some subtle backing the past few hours in response to a
potent shortwave and surface low ejecting from CO, helping to draw
impressive PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches northward. This LLJ is
efficiently converging along its nose and within the moistening
column, producing locally enhanced ascent into an unstable
environment (MUCAPE above 3000 J/kg). While heavy rainfall within
convection has just started, the LightningCast probabilities have
steadily expanded northwest and increased, suggesting additional
convective development is underway.

The high-res guidance is struggling with the current evolution,
and really only the most recent (07Z) HRRR has caught on to the
ongoing activity. This is resulting in lower than typical
confidence of the convective evolution the next few hours.
However, with the impressive PW/MUCAPE overlap in place, and the
LLJ expected to remain locally backed and accelerated, the
ingredients suggest storms will continually regenerate along this
boundary until the shortwave (and any accompanying convection)
sweeps through from the west late morning. Rainfall measured by
MRMS has exceeded 1.5" the past hour, suggesting rainfall rates of
at least 1-2"/hr are likely through morning. This will become an
increasing flash flood risk as mean 0-6km winds are just around 5
kts and aligned parallel to this boundary, so as storms redevelop
to the west within slightly higher instability and on the locally
backed inflow, they will train to the E/SE to prolong the duration
of these rain rates. This could result in 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts.

Soils across this region are saturated as reflected by NASA SPoRT
0-40cm soil moisture above the 98th percentile, and locally
compromised 3-hr FFG To as low as 0.5" to 1". Despite the HREF
exceedance probabilities being very low (due to poor high-res
guidance of this event), two FFWs are already in effect, and it is
possible that additional flash flood instances will occur through
morning due to training along this boundary.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!--Fvt8od6oHSkhNvDYKb5CTiW-aFsE4uPaqe7ahU_GeH-GtLwKyc1MVsm9BUxEROzI6p= tuo3zH6n4f5dyzeipgwRecA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37509910 37329781 36939602 36339427 35929380=20
35489407 35279468 35289537 35299549 35329617=20
35599704 35919798 36199892 36499961 36750000=20
37050010 37299994=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thursday, June 25, 2026 09:50:05

AWUS01 KWNH 250949
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-251500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0521
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
548 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Western Arkansas through the ArkLaMiss

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250947Z - 251500Z

Summary...Nearly stationary showers and thunderstorms will
continue through late morning. Rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr will
produce 2-4" of rainfall with locally higher amounts. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows rapid
development of a line of convection oriented NW to SE from
north-central AR through the ArkLaMiss region. These storms are
blossoming along the nose of a SW oriented 20-25 kt LLJ, with
convergence driving ascent into a moistening column. PWs as
measured by GPS are generally 1.5 to 1.7 inches, above the 75th
percentile for the date, overlapping MUCAPE of around 2000 J/kg.
The sharp ascent into these thermodynamics has resulted in recent
hourly rainfall measured by MRMS of more than 2 inches in southern
AR.

The high-res guidance is struggling with the ongoing activity, and
in fact the recent HRRR and RRFS are completely missing the
current convection. This makes the forecast evolution of lower
confidence, but both the ARW and ARW2 capture better the
thunderstorms in AR, so are used more heavily for the next several
hours. As the LLJ gradually veers in the next few hours, it will
continue to transport the impressive PW/CAPE northeast to support
continued heavy rain. This will support rainfall rates likely
reaching 1-3"/hr at times, and as the LLJ becomes more WSW than
SSW, it should force additional development upstream in the higher
instability and then drift southeast on mean 0-6km winds aligned
parallel to the boundary. This will create a situation where net
storm motion could be close to 0 at times, with
backbuilding/training of these cells leading to 2-4" of rainfall
with isolated higher totals.

7-day rainfall across the area, especially from far southern AR
into LA/MS, has been more than 400% of normal leading to modest
FFG and 0-40cm soil moisture above the 90th percentile. Any heavy
rain across these more vulnerable soils could pose a more elevated
flash flood risk, but anywhere slow moving or training storms
occur impacts from flash flooding could result.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4hjdIITKX1orOmUwb0c-OKN_shfm2BqDDAQblt6_9lIZ288aNOzeHNs34HxZqPmMGrME= rbmF5Ka6t9LQbptDbXnHM5I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35599414 35489353 34849260 34469221 33499089=20
32679029 31379004 31189053 31399126 31899203=20
32639297 33319372 33839417 34359437 34889458=20
35319454=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thursday, June 25, 2026 12:11:19

AWUS01 KWNH 251211
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-251800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0522
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Western and Southern Kansas into Northern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251209Z - 251800Z

SUMMARY...Multiple areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
support intense rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour over
the next several hours. Localized totals of 3 to 4 inches will
likely result in flash flooding through early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends indicate an axis of
heavy showers and thunderstorms ejecting across western Kansas,
driven by a pronounced shortwave trough and associated surface low
pressure. Deep-layer ascent is being maximized by a combination of
DPVA and warm air advection with aid from a modest 20 to 30 kt
low-level jet. This is also yielding moisture and instability
transport up across the central Plains with MLCAPE values near
1500 J/kg and precipitable water values around 1.5 inches.
Continued cooling of convective cloud tops suggests vigorous,
sustained updrafts capable of highly efficient warm-rain
processes, and thus enhanced rainfall rates.

As the primary convective mass over western Kansas tracks
east-southeastward along the prevailing instability gradient, it
is expected to interact with a separate axis of backbuilding and
training convection already established over northern Oklahoma.
The intersection of these features, combined with persistent warm
air advection ahead of the shortwave, will support high rainfall
rates up to or locally exceeding 2 inches per hour.

Given the moist antecedent conditions across the region, these
intense rates are expected to overwhelm local infiltration
capacities. The latest HREF/REFS ensemble consensus supports
localized rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible where the most persistent cell-training occurs.
Consequently, areas of rapid runoff and flash flooding are
considered likely across the highlighted corridor through early
this afternoon, particularly where the Kansas and Oklahoma
convective axes consolidate.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5tqTInvmJ2OI5_FGSDNSyRuaXAvhFLjgzyiumtwWZaAxKSQEyr0v1m2LILdJn-D6B3bU= quKT77BCQncmevsTgtnPvLw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...OUN...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39500115 39379959 39069827 38499676 37519543=20
36809531 36269582 36139692 36509840 36939948=20
37740087 38510156 39120164=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thursday, June 25, 2026 18:01:54

AWUS01 KWNH 251801
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0523
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas...West-Central into
Southwest Missouri...North-Central to Northeast Oklahoma...Far
Northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251800Z - 260000Z

SUMMARY...An organized MCS and a secondary developing axis of
frontal convection will move eastward into a highly sensitive
downstream environment. Intense rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5
inches per hour will act on locally saturated soils and sensitive
terrain, making at least scattered areas of flash flooding likely
through late this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Operational radar and satellite imagery show a robust
mesoscale convective system (MCS) advancing steadily eastward
across central Kansas along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary,
with extension down into southern Kansas and north-central
Oklahoma. This activity is being sustained by strong large-scale
ascent from an ejecting central High Plains shortwave. Ahead of
this complex, a convergent 30+ kt southwesterly low-level jet
continues to drive warm air advection and favorable moisture
transport into the downstream region.

Thermodynamic profiles have become increasingly unstable due to
solar insolation, with MLCAPE values climbing into the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range across eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and
northeast Oklahoma. Precipitable water values are generally rather
high, ranging from 1.5 inches along the frontal boundary in
west-central Missouri to nearly 2.0 inches over southern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma. The 12Z regional soundings confirm rather
deep warm-cloud depths and high freezing levels, favoring highly
efficient warm-rain processes capable of sustaining 1.5 to 2.5
inch per hour rainfall rates within the stronger convective cores.

Going through 00Z (7PM CDT), two distinct axes of heavy rainfall
are expected:

1. The ongoing primary MCS tracking across central/southeast
Kansas and northeast Oklahoma where localized cell-training and
occasional backbuilding will favor storm totals as high as 3 to 5
inches based on the latest HREF/REFS model consensus. Some of this
activity may impact far northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri.

2. A somewhat more uncertain, but potential developing axis of
heavy showers and storms farther north across
east-central/northeast Kansas into west-central Missouri, focused
by frontal convergence and arrival of upstream forcing, capable of
producing localized 2 to 4 inch totals which is supported by the
HRRR/RRFS/REFS model camp.

Antecedent conditions are notably vulnerable across the region.
Recent NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm relative soil moisture data indicates
very moist soils, and USGS stream gauges show already elevated
baseflows, particularly across the rugged terrain of the Ozark
Plateau. Given the high runoff efficiency of both the
hilly/complex topography and localized urban centers in the path
of these storms, the projected rainfall rates will likely lead to
rapid surface runoff concerns. Some larger cities that may see
these impacts will include Kansas City, Chanute and eventually
Springfield. Consequently, at least scattered areas of flash
flooding are considered likely going into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!78ori7T5K02RM00JVN1sbZxphv5EOH2_Nao_r3g7ubeoO8z909g96bnuT18SowsVazbn= zPEhXnvAhRWT99PG-3RInyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39529519 39519369 39169223 38409158 37179162=20
36329244 36059404 36149623 36579772 37229843=20
37869868 38549853 39009792 39329685=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thursday, June 25, 2026 19:31:35

AWUS01 KWNH 251931
FFGMPD
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-260129-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0524
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...southern/central Utah and northern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251929Z - 260129Z

Summary...Isolated heavy downpours could result in instances of
flash flooding in typical low-spots, slot-canyons, and dry washes
through the early evening.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have developed across
south-central and southwestern Utah this early afternoon. The
storms are in an environment characterized by weak westerly
steering flow aloft (~15-20 knots), relatively high cloud bases,
and 0.7 inch PW values - all supporting areas of wetting and
locally heavy rainfall with slow-moving storms. MRMS estimates of
1 inch/hr are beginning to apear with the most dominant convection
near Fishlake National Forest and points just south. These
estimates suggest that storms will have at least an isolated flash
flood risk in the near term - especially if heavier rain affects
typical low-spots, slot-canyons, and dry washes.

The ongoing flash flood threat should continue for several more
hours - particularly as peak heating/instability persists through
at least 01Z/7p mountain time. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates
should remain possible during that time frame as well. Flash
flooding is possible on a localized/isolated basis.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8luFNrYIpZgRC3uQaaWw6EQ82a2LJnRkbX4LiWqauPME5H_3de26gIBAiFkQJHMGy6B1= DDctj1GVkESaSS-Oi6tlxS4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40211010 39270921 37300902 35750929 35511047=20
35921261 37161378 38891401 39811274=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thursday, June 25, 2026 19:47:37

AWUS01 KWNH 251947
FFGMPD
MIZ000-252245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0525
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...A small part of central Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251945Z - 252245Z

Summary...Localized/isolated flash flooding is possible for the
next couple hours (through 22Z/6p eastern).

Discussion...Slow-moving convection has formed in earnest between
Gaylord and Mt. Pleasant beneath a slow-moving mid/upper trough
centered over the central Great Lakes. Surface heating beneath
this mid/upper cold pool (-16C @ 500hPa) has aided in sufficient
instability for deep convection, while weak flow aloft and 1.1
inch PW values were enabling slow storm motions and local 1-1.5
inch/hr rain rates (estimated per MRMS). These rates were
reaching FFG on an isolated basis, suggestive of at least minor
runoff issues in the near term.

The ongoing threat should not last too long across the discussion
area. Scattered convection is resulting in widespread overturning
and low-level stabilization in areas north and west of ongoing
convection. Current expectation is that slow-moving convection
will gradually drift/propagate toward Lake Huron over the next 2-3
hours. Isolated instances of excessive runoff are possible in
this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9RghMah6uZtVwSJyS5trD25r846R438Bosb3wLgRkdv8kZjiDs2J5EkdyPsbxNC3EH6e= cB6ZH1Ry5hbeKswea0QqOrY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...GRR...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44638500 44638362 43838253 42978361 43308552=20
44258554=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thursday, June 25, 2026 21:11:45

AWUS01 KWNH 252111
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260309-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0526
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...southern Indiana, northern Kentucky, east-central
Missouri, and southern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252109Z - 260309Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists with ongoing
convective activity extending from near St. Louis Metro
east-southeastward to near Princeton, Indiana.

Discussion...A band of scattered thunderstorms has materialized
along low-level confluence within an axis extending from St. Louis
to near Princeton, IN over the past hour or so. This band was
embedded within a moist/unstable axis (1.8 inch PW and 2500 J/kg
MLCAPE) with enough westerly steering flow aloft for storms to
migrate eastward at roughly 20-30 knots. Unfortunately, the axis
of convection was also oriented parallel to that steering flow
aloft, allowing for localized training and spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr
rain rates. These rates have occurred on a relatively isolated
basis, but has caused localized flooding in a few areas this
afternoon.

The portion of the convective band over far southwestern Indiana
has exhibited local upscale growth, with recent radar imagery
depicting a gust front gradually surging southward from ongoing
activity. This suggests that the ongoing convective band will
gradually propagate east-southeastward across the Ohio River and
into northern Kentucky over the next 2-3 hours. Local
backbuilding within this axis will boost rain rates enough to
foster a continued risk of isolated flash flooding from Evansville
to Owensboro to Louisville and points nearby as 1-1.5 inch/hr rain
rates threaten both FFG thresholds and local urban interfaces.

The ongoing threat will likely remain tied to peak
heating/instability, with some weakening becoming possible after
around 03Z/11p eastern.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5an4bEkQ46PWPznjUnrvUAd4WDZwyf2G6f_fMpUcG0PNrt9aED_KHjIV4oXFPN7qETV-= LcG-bEtpUBWRYTLrY8D9F1Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39198656 38888454 37838411 37178499 37008841=20
37489028 38259137 39099097 39178932=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Thursday, June 25, 2026 23:13:56

AWUS01 KWNH 252313
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-260311-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0527
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
711 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle into western and central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252311Z - 260311Z

Summary...A cluster of maturing thunderstorms in the northeastern
Texas Panhandle will pose flash flood potential as the expand in
coverage through the early evening.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were increasing in coverage
across the northern/northeastern Texas Panhandle over the past
couple hours. The storms are moving eastward at a decent clip
(roughly 20 knots or so) while ingesting strongly unstable and
moist air (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch PW). Local rain rates
beneath the more dominant convection have reached 1-1.5 inches/hr
(per MRMS). With local FFG thresholds in the ~2 inch/hr range in
many areas, flash flooding should be relatively isolated in the
near term.

Over time though, as low-level flow increases across much of the
southern Plains, the ongoing complex will likely expand in size.=20
The current orientation of cells along with convergence along an
east-west oriented remnant outflow in far northern Oklahoma and
the northern Texas Panhandle may cause cells to train/backbuild,
eventually exhibiting a mix of linear segments and cells through
the evening. FFG thresholds are locally as low as 1.5 inch/hr but
are generally 2+ inch/hr in most areas. Flash flood potential
should be isolated and tied to areas that are 1) relatively
sensitive from prior heavy rainfall and 2) exhibit favorable storm
interactions (backbuilding/merging) for prolonged, local heavy
rainfall. Flash flooding is possible in this scenario, with some east-southeastward movement of the evolving cluster toward the
I-40 corridor in western Oklahoma also expected through 03Z/10p
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5zfcnzAWscUP_Z8lfxekWd5ERpe3NY6uqj40CuAUtVmX9mt33oTQAjmlhfEEmuNtexz4= w4zJ35_eo2iQUL4awrXdDC4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36820076 36689796 35759760 34759793 34690018=20
34990142 36600209=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Friday, June 26, 2026 01:04:38

AWUS01 KWNH 260104
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260702-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0528
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
903 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...much of Kansas, western/central Missouri,
northern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260102Z - 260702Z

Summary...A significant flash flood episode could develop through
the overnight hours across portions of Kansas and Missouri,
potentially spreading into northern Oklahoma and northwestern
Arkansas.

Discussion...A complicated mesoscale pattern exists across the
discussion area. Departing convection across central
Missouri/northwestern Arkansas has left low-level stable air in
its wake across much of the discussion area. Despite the
low-level stability, increasing low-level flow across much of
Oklahoma (20-25kt 850mb southerly) was providing isentropic ascent
and interacting favorably with lingering mid-level instability to
promote scattered thunderstorm development near Chanute, with
weaker activity increasing in coverage from Hutchinson
northeastward to Topeka. Recent objective analyses depicted
sufficient MLCAPE for sustained updrafts, while PW values remained
high (around 2 inches). Furthermore, wet soils from prior rainfall
today (widespread 2-4 inch totals over the past 12 hours) has led
to pockets of very sensitive ground conditions particularly in
west-central Kansas, northern/northeastern Oklahoma, and
southwestern Missouri.

Despite some uncertainty, models/observations all suggest that
convection will become widespread again, with east-west oriented
bands traversing the discussion area through the overnight hours.=20
Some recovery of the better/more unstable low-level airmass could
occur into southern Kansas, where 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE could be
noted. These east-west oriented convective bands will likely
foster areas of training and merging, with local rain rates
exceeding 2 inches/hr.

Flash flooding is expected in several areas, with locally
significant impacts possibly occurring in southwestern MO,
northern OK, and southern through western Kansas where recent
heavy rainfall has left ground conditions extremely sensitive.=20
This risk will persist through at least 07Z/2a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7b4J30lMJiF-mfSNRaCWiI-emGt4CBHiocIMrq4Iy3txmeMmxLErSzzqfaQKcN6kitIv= L5Xug6orOuZ6B9_y3bLPu3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...
TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39379552 39209320 38609208 37239208 36439254=20
35869396 36279684 37260019 38300050 39049936=20
39349774=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Friday, June 26, 2026 04:32:56

AWUS01 KWNH 260432
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0529
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1232 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Missouri, Southern/Central Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260431Z - 260900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand downstream of a
shortwave across eastern Missouri and into Illinois. Rainfall
rates within this convection will likely reach 1-2"/hr, leading to
2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...A shortwave noted via GOES-E WV imagery lifting
northeast near the Bootheel of MO will continue to track slowly
ENE overnight. Downstream of this shortwave, thunderstorms have
been expanding as noted via the regional radar mosaic, with an
increase in LightningCast probabilities suggesting additional
convection is blossoming even outside of the higher reflectivity
at this hour. Recent MRMS rainfall within this new convection has
exceeded 1" in the past hour, and these rates are expected to
expand into the overnight hours.

As the shortwave lifts northeast, it will force some locally
accelerated and backed 850mb inflow, becoming S/SW at 20-30 kts.
This inflow will not only draw elevated thermodynamics northward
(1.7-2.0 inch PWs and 1000 J/kg MUCAPE), but also force some more
impressive isentropic ascent into and atop the wavering stationary
front analyzed by WPC. Together, this should result in an
expansion of thunderstorm coverage during the next few hours, with
an intensification of rain rates for which both the HREF and REFS
indicate have a 30-50% chance of exceeding 1"/hr. Mean storm
motions of these thunderstorms are progged to increase to 10-20
kts, but regeneration within the higher instability to the SW and
along the wavering front as the local inflow backs will cause
Corfidi vectors to collapse to around 5 kts. This suggests some backbuilding/repeating potential of cells, with which 1"/hr rain
rates could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts.

7-day rainfall across this area has generally been well below
normal, although some areas of 150-300% of normal rain has
occurred in southeast MO and central IL. It is in these locations
where FFG is locally compromised to 1.5"/3hrs, and any more
prolonged training of rainfall could yield instances of flash
flooding into the early morning.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4iqH_iuYYeVEWqa2zOvkmR3DXcLQwkBhx_ZiPimqjnSwyLWQR5jfw6DzcHClI2ReYsC0= Oc4GKni__4RcmaUF7Kj7o2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...IND...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39968857 39738744 39308707 38778707 38098752=20
37568819 37288884 37158962 37179043 37369129=20
37649194 38009246 38959293 39549153 39928934=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Friday, June 26, 2026 07:06:43

AWUS01 KWNH 260706
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-261230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0530
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...Southeast KS, Northeast OK, Southwest MO,
Northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260705Z - 261230Z

Summary...Repeating showers and thunderstorms with 1-2+"/hr rain
rates will continue a flash flood risk through the morning.
Additional rainfall in some areas could exceed 3 inches.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows thunderstorms
continuing to build westward and then train E/SE across southern
Kansas. These storms have been ongoing much of the night, and are
expected to continue several more hours along a stationary front
and slowly southward advancing outflow boundary. Recent hourly
rainfall measured by MRMS has exceeded 1.5" in southern Kansas,
and 6-hr rainfall has been above 4" already tonight leading to
locally significant flash flooding near Wichita.

During the next few hours, the high-res guidance suggests that
this event should begin to wane as convection presses east more
into Missouri and south into Oklahoma. With convective overturning
tonight severely limiting MLCAPE anywhere north of the stationary
front, this appears a reasonable evolution. However, locally
accelerated and backed 850mb inflow in the vicinity of a wave of
low pressure will still drive impressive thermodynamic advection
as PWs of 2-2.2 inches and MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg into the area.
This combined with the resulting enhanced isentropic ascent atop
both the outflow boundary and the front should result in continued
convective development, especially upstream towards the surface
low and on the western edge of the stationary front. Despite at
least subtle stabilization of the environment, both the HREF and
the REFS indicate a 30-50% chance (10-20% chance) for 1"/hr
(2"/hr) rain rates. With cells backbuilding to the west and then
likely training along the boundary due to generally parallel
850-300mb mean winds, this will produce repeating rounds of heavy
rainfall through which 3+ inches of rain could accumulate.

This region has been saturated recently as reflected by 7-day
rainfall departures that are generally 300-600% of normal, not
even including rain the last 6-12 hours. This has resulted in
extremely vulnerable soils with 3-hr FFG as low as 1 inch.
Although rainfall through morning may be less intense than what
has occurred overnight, any additional heavy rain, or any training
across these sensitive areas, could result in additional flash
flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_wBPgU6qXlKsXVtZpHc1SBwpqetXQdIEFdZcDtAN2KFDjjPJ4v2GzKpi1cAQRtx0x0xw= DtBh-DPkc-Q7aLgFZdlhYUo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38649462 38579318 38219272 37839245 37339224=20
36759256 36249327 35949436 35999547 36649779=20
37219890 37519928 37749957 37979951 38109923=20
38159865 38159771 38289676 38519567=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Friday, June 26, 2026 17:42:16

AWUS01 KWNH 261742
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-262340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0531
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
140 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Ozark Plateau into the Lower Ohio
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261740Z - 262340Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be gradually
redeveloping and expanding in coverage this afternoon and into the
evening hours. High rainfall rates locally exceeding 2 inches/hour
are expected, and with generally wet antecedent conditions and
high streamflows, there will likely be new areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery along with surface
observations show a broad area of low pressure over eastern KS
which is advancing slowly off to the east toward areas of western
MO. This is traversing a frontal zone draped generally west to
east from the central Plains eastward into the OH Valley.

Despite substantial morning cloud cover, the warm-sector airmass
pooling along this front and ahead of the surface low has been
gradually destabilizing with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg
across central MO through southern IL. However, much stronger
thermodynamics are noted over the Ozark Plateau where MLCAPE
values have risen to 1500 to 2000 J/kg. The environment is very
moist with PWs on the order of 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above
normal with values of 1.8 to 2.2 inches.

This very moist and increasingly unstable airmass will be in place
as some modest, low-amplitude shortwave energy embedded within the
mid-level westerly flow traverses the region going through the
afternoon hours. The result will be the development and expansion
of heavy showers and thunderstorms that will be capable of
producing rainfall rates as high as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. A
combination of weak DPVA, low-level moisture convergence near and
south of the front, and relatively divergent flow aloft will help
facilitate the convective threat. Some modest shear also is noted
which may favor some relatively organized multicell bands of
heavier showers and thunderstorms that may support these higher
rainfall rates.

The latest HRRR guidance and the 12Z HREF/REFS solutions show
increasing coverage of convection over the next several hours with
some localized rainfall totals reaching 3 to 4+ inches by early
this evening. Areas east of the Ozark Plateau including southeast
MO (near Cape Girardeau), southern IL (near Carbondale), and
southern IN (approaching Evansville) are generally favored to see
the heaviest totals for this nowcast period. However, by early
this evening, convection should develop and become increasingly
more focused across the Ozark Plateau including southwest MO,
northern AR and back into northeast OK.

Most of the region is generally quite sensitive, with wet
antecedent conditions. The additional rainfall potential over the
next several hours, and especially by this evening, will strongly
favor runoff concerns and a likelihood for more areas of flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_NWuwjIvrid4FwfIUdLSeEneaAN3kNF8Wu2DjYuxEzxNLSBTUq_Qxn6F4ObwW3vHxKDU= yU1d1YtzZv3QGFdD9NmhV8M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... OHX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39139036 39028778 38288575 37268568 36758674=20
36628738 36308870 35718997 35369071 34899205=20
34929399 35269514 35799599 36649623 37519554=20
38469398 38969224=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Friday, June 26, 2026 18:40:53

AWUS01 KWNH 261840
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-270030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0532
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...Portions of New York and Northern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261839Z - 270030Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms may pose an isolated concern for some flash flooding
through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a digging upper
trough across the Northeast U.S., with radar imagery confirming
the development and expansion of showers and thunderstorms across
areas of the Adirondacks and into adjacent areas of northern New
England.

Surface low pressure is seen gradually lifting northeastward
across northern NY and this coupled with DPVA, increasing boundary
layer instability, and orographic forcing should tend to favor an
uptick in the coverage of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms
going through at least early this evening.

MLCAPE values are on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg, with PWs near
1.25 inches. This coupled with the aid of upslope flow near the
terrain and some deeper layer shear should favor some locally
organized pockets of convection with rainfall rates capable of
reaching 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger convective cores.

The latest hires model consensus support some spotty 2 to 3 inch
rainfall totals through early this evening. This may result in an
isolated concern for some runoff problems and flash flooding, and
particularly near some of the more sensitive and rugged terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Si-qd4hulRzwBFhlOceOszTUBIFlm4vRl34z3JU0dd0oZlwAjAAEuLr-uksQrzDWy2r= 1tv1yvmsB9HYjEsDIdzbbxo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47106939 46646847 45116877 43657045 42987174=20
42917337 43517438 44297468 44777397 44927263=20
45287127 46057062 46607009=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Friday, June 26, 2026 19:12:57

AWUS01 KWNH 261912
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-270100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0533
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley...Central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261911Z - 270100Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will pose
at least a localized threat of flash flooding through early this
evening given increasingly high rainfall rate potential.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with radar data shows some gradual increase in the coverage
of mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the OH Valley, central Appalachians and the interior of the
central Mid-Atlantic. MLCAPE values have increased to 500 to 1000
J/kg, and the PWs across the region are gradually increasing as
upstream moisture transport from the Mid-South focuses across
broader areas of the OH Valley and eastward into the central
Appalachians. PWs west of the Appalachians have risen to 1.5 to
1.75 inches, with values closer to 1.5 inches over the central
Mid-Atlantic.

Multiple upstream shortwave impulses transiting the OH Valley will
begin to move into the central Appalachians and the interior of
the Mid-Atlantic going through early this evening. There may be
just enough uptick in convective coverage, and the rainfall rates
to drive some localized concerns for flash flooding. The greater
overall threat will tend to be over the OH Valley where the
greater moisture is in place.

Localized rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour and some spotty 2
to 3+ inch rainfall amounts going through early this evening are
supported by the latest hires model consensus. A localized urban
flash flooding threat will also be possible given the setup which
would include some areas of northern VA and perhaps near
Washington D.C.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4v1z4o4NfmNoDhyJbjqZBKJa1AtwBkS-q_ch7EeXdWKBymcGq1q9Twt70geioupCInen= b5xYnnWv7t8EF9GdNP0LZMM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39388204 39348065 39267885 39067700 38127723=20
37547953 37448042 37138196 36798397 37018495=20
37438549 37988549 38398562 38958674 39218578=20
39358395=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Friday, June 26, 2026 23:18:54

AWUS01 KWNH 262318
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-270417-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0534
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
717 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of far southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262317Z - 270417Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains possible near and downstream of
an evolving convective complex over south-central Indiana and
north-central Kentucky.

Discussion...Areas of flash flooding remain possible in/near a
cluster extending from Princeton/Huntingburg, IN through Owensboro
to near Beaver Dam, KY. Within this band, a mix of
forward-propagating storms and mergers (especially in southern
Indiana) were promoting areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates. Some of
the heavier rainfall was occurring over areas that received
excessive rainfall yesterday, and local FFG (near zero in spots)
was being readily exceeded. Flash flooding has been reported in
southern Indiana with this activity.=20

The overall risk of flash flooding should continue for at least
another 2-4 hours as storms migrate through northern Kentucky and
adjacent areas of southeastern Indiana. Eventually, loss of
daytime heating should limit merger potential as storms further
congeal into a larger forward-propagating cluster. Downstream air
over eastern Kentucky has been cooled from prior rainfall, which
may also mitigate the flash flood potential via weakening updrafts
and attendant rain rates. These processes should take a few hours
to unfold though, with continued flash flood potential expected
(including near Louisville and Lexington) through at least 03Z/11p
eastern.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6opfPus4u9Mp_vEVvCwuzvvNH5v3gnwTscpGIeGxtAMB5ccTZVaz_YKKPnIpH_R6kSnW= nUA8Z6i47SvNZesO4RUzVBE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39178549 38818397 38148326 37288349 36948502=20
37248734 38908736=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Friday, June 26, 2026 23:50:55

AWUS01 KWNH 262350
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270549-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0535
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
749 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...northern Oklahoma, far southeastern Kansas,
southern/central Missouri, western Kentucky, southern Illinois,
far northern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262349Z - 270549Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are expected as storms increase
in coverage through the evening and overnight hours.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite/mesoanalyses indicate the
development of scattered convection along a left-over boundary
from prior convection from near Enid, OK east-northeastward to
near Rolla, MO. The updrafts were responding to increasing
southwesterly low-level flow over a broader part of the southern
Plains that was enhancing speed convergence along that
aforementioned boundary. Very high PW (around 2+ inches) and
strong instability (3500 J/kg MLCAPE) was fostering robust
updrafts, while modest westerly steering flow aloft was enabling
slow cell movement in addition to local mergers. 1 inch/hr rain
rates were already being estimated per MRMS near some storms -
particularly near Enid and Joplin. Additionally, rainfall was
occurring atop wet/waterlogged soils from prior rainfall, with 3-7
inch rainfall totals over the past 48 hours in some areas along
with impacts (some significant).

The redevelopment of ongoing, slow-moving convection in these
areas will continue to pose a renewed flash flood risk in much of
the discussion area tonight. In addition to convection along the aforementioned boundary, a secondary area of concern exists near
Cape Girardeau and vicinity, where 2-4 inch rainfall totals over
the past 6 hours has resulted in local impacts. Upstream
convection should approach that region over the next 2-4 hours,
with a renewed flash flood risk expected.

Convection should evolve into a series of both clusters and linear
segments with plenty of opportunity for local training and
backbuilding. Areas of 2-3 inch rainfall totals are expected.=20
Flash flooding is likely, and significant impacts remain possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9gRvjtkVts0KTy4d9T0yza8W9KST5it38F-nwBfeYe_ypo6Uu9L-gQav94lm6aHq8B7V= Ffu-AjUe7HJ41DA_WblWKw8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...
SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38609217 38588986 38048799 37288789 36598908=20
36249201 35699630 35649859 36129890 36979864=20
37249768 37899506=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Saturday, June 27, 2026 05:21:58

AWUS01 KWNH 270521
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-271000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0536
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Southern Kansas, Northern & Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270519Z - 271000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight across north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Rainfall rates of
1-2"/hr are expected, with through repeating rounds could generate
2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding may
result.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight indicates two
clusters of slow moving thunderstorms persisting across OK. The
first is a very slow moving area across far northeast OK, while a
second area is steadily expanding across north-central OK. This
activity is occurring within extremely favorable thermodynamics
characterized by PWs of 1.8 - 2.1 inches, and MUCAPE of more than
2000 J/kg leading to hourly rainfall measured by MRMS in excess of
2" in the strongest storms. Forcing for ascent is being driven
both by subtle PVA/height falls downstream of an approaching
shortwave, and the increasingly impressive isentropic ascent of
the accelerating LLJ from the S/SW.

As the shortwave pushes east during the next few hours, the
response at the low levels will be a continued intensification of
the LLJ, progged to rise from the current 25-30 kts (measured via
regional VWPs) to as high as 40+ kts by daybreak. While this will
also feature some subtle veering more to the SW which will reduce
the resulting upglide, the accompanying moist advection will reach
more than +2 sigma according to the SREF, maintaining robust PWs
to support heavy rainfall. The high-res CAMs suggest that storms
will continue to fire on the nose of the LLJ and in the vicinity
of the stationary front positioned near the OK/KS border, with
additional activity developing immediately downstream of the
shortwave as it moves east. Cells that form along the LLJ will
have the potential to backbuild and move slowly NW to SE before
the convection accompanying the shortwave sweeps through by
morning. This suggests a strong likelihood for multiple rounds of
storms in many areas, and with both the HREF and REFS indicating a
30-60% chance of at least 1"/hr rainfall rates, total rain
accumulation of 2-3" with higher totals is expected.

This area has been saturated recently, reflected by 7-day rainfall
that has been generally more than 300% of normal (in some places
more than 600% of normal) which has reduced FFG to as low as
1.5-2"/3hrs. Any heavy rain rates moving atop these vulnerable
soils would likely create rapid runoff, so instances of flash
flooding may continue through early morning.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9E2Kljnz5tB5PFZHb9DkkNCESKYsLEOZ_hmFXSmh9fzczOn8trLd9w5-i0sLw0tSHY57= nLX0cB3ijwXllXbrRi9Pkj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37979929 37879810 37679663 37439566 37029438=20
36509413 36009428 35659502 35439604 35329717=20
35339844 35509915 35810014 36370095 37060115=20
37420101 37710074 37930001=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Saturday, June 27, 2026 06:05:31

AWUS01 KWNH 270605
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0537
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri through Eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270603Z - 271200Z

Summary...Expanding showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr are expected overnight. Repeating rounds of convection
could cause 3-4" of rain with locally higher amounts leading to
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic has shown a slow uptick in
high reflectivity above 40dBZ the past few hours for parts of
southern IN associated with intensifying convection. At the same
time, LightningCast probabilities have steadily increased and
expanded, with areas above 30% now widespread from eastern MO
through central KY. Together, this indicates that the environment
is becoming increasingly supportive for expanding and intensifying
convection with rain rates above 1"/hr as reflected by recent
hourly MRMS measurements.

The environment is steadily becoming more conducive to
intensifying thunderstorms. PWs as measured by GPS have surged to
1.9-2.1 inches, well above the 90th percentile and approaching
daily records, with continued moist advection on a SWly 850mb LLJ
of 25-30 kts as measured via regional VWPs. At the same time,
MUCAPE has slowly climbed to above 1000 J/kg in response to the
thermodynamic advection provided via this LLJ, creating the
favorable environment supporting the ongoing activity. Forcing for
ascent is slowly intensifying as well thanks to broad isentropic
upglide of the LLJ atop a surface trough, aided by convergence
along the nose of this LLJ, and at least modest RRQ diffluence
aloft supporting both synoptic and mesoscale lift. A shortwave
exiting from MO will also provide locally enhanced ascent, while
also forcing subtle acceleration of the inflow/WAA/thermodynamic
advection.

Together, this suggests that thunderstorm coverage will expand
rapidly in the next few hours within this WAA, and this is
supported by recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS. Much of this
activity is progged to develop to the SW over MO/IL and then lift
ENE on 0-6km mean winds around 20 kts. However, regenerating cells
are likely within the WAA, and Corfidi vectors falling to 5-10 kts
and becoming increasingly anti-parallel to this mean wind suggest
backbuilding and repeating of heavy rain rates are expected. These
rain rates, which are anticipated to be 1-2"/hr, if not locally
higher, will contribute to total rainfall accumulation of 3-4",
with higher amounts possible (10-30% chance of 5"). This rain
falling atop vulnerable soils due to recent heavy rain and the
resulting extremely compromised FFG (as low as 0.25-0.75"/3hrs)
will likely create instances of flash flooding into the morning
hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-D_JubxWwBzex3dR2PsMz7RBobM3JG_kdm40Cd29OaKCRMzAJYYWXj8RyPbWwgEBYUE-= yXY7LnmJTlyS2NM2K2OmMrI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... PAH...RLX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39288556 39098392 38668328 38078308 37788345=20
37558437 37328566 36998688 36788797 36428898=20
36088982 35989042 36159081 36569121 36979128=20
37559116 38199068 38558986 38808877 39158717=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Saturday, June 27, 2026 06:10:04

AWUS01 KWNH 270609
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0537
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri through Eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270603Z - 271200Z

Summary...Expanding showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr are expected overnight. Repeating rounds of convection
could cause 3-4" of rain with locally higher amounts leading to
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic has shown a slow uptick in
high reflectivity above 40dBZ the past few hours for parts of
southern IN associated with intensifying convection. At the same
time, LightningCast probabilities have steadily increased and
expanded, with areas above 30% now widespread from eastern MO
through central KY. Together, this indicates that the environment
is becoming increasingly supportive for expanding and intensifying
convection with rain rates above 1"/hr as reflected by recent
hourly MRMS measurements.

The environment is steadily becoming more conducive to
intensifying thunderstorms. PWs as measured by GPS have surged to
1.9-2.1 inches, well above the 90th percentile and approaching
daily records, with continued moist advection on a SWly 850mb LLJ
of 25-30 kts as measured via regional VWPs. At the same time,
MUCAPE has slowly climbed to above 1000 J/kg in response to the
thermodynamic advection provided via this LLJ, creating the
favorable environment supporting the ongoing activity. Forcing for
ascent is slowly intensifying as well thanks to broad isentropic
upglide of the LLJ atop a surface trough, aided by convergence
along the nose of this LLJ, and at least modest RRQ diffluence
aloft supporting both synoptic and mesoscale lift. A shortwave
exiting from MO will also provide locally enhanced ascent, while
also forcing subtle acceleration of the inflow/WAA/thermodynamic
advection.

Together, this suggests that thunderstorm coverage will expand
rapidly in the next few hours within this WAA, and this is
supported by recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS. Much of this
activity is progged to develop to the SW over MO/IL and then lift
ENE on 0-6km mean winds around 20 kts. However, regenerating cells
are likely within the WAA, and Corfidi vectors falling to 5-10 kts
and becoming increasingly anti-parallel to this mean wind suggest
backbuilding and repeating of heavy rain rates are expected. These
rain rates, which are anticipated to be 1-2"/hr, if not locally
higher, will contribute to total rainfall accumulation of 3-4",
with higher amounts possible (10-30% chance of 5"). This rain
falling atop vulnerable soils due to recent heavy rain and the
resulting extremely compromised FFG (as low as 0.25-0.75"/3hrs)
will likely create instances of flash flooding into the morning
hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ZaHDpNw5rndGABW5QaohWHQN8xQ2AVIGGVLhndaqsu07HwOkzZ-e02KisVXzysWVCQj= Nw7EIE1elqTxKH3bmyo_TQE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... PAH...RLX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39288556 39098392 38668328 38078308 37788345=20
37558437 37328566 36998688 36788797 36428898=20
36088982 35989042 36159081 36569121 36979128=20
37559116 38199068 38558986 38808877 39158717=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Saturday, June 27, 2026 09:32:23

AWUS01 KWNH 270932
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-271430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0538
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Northeast OK, Far Southeast KS, Southwest MO,
Northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270930Z - 271430Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with 1-2"/hr rain rates will
continue for a few more hours this morning. Brief training of
these rates could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts, leading to instances of flash flooding, especially atop
vulnerable soils.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning
indicates continued development of showers and thunderstorms
across north-central OK and far southern KS. This activity is
blossoming in response to several forcing mechanisms, including a
shortwave exiting the TX Panhandle, a slowly veering 45 kt LLJ
converging across central OK, and an embedded MCV noted in
reflectivity. The resultant ascent is occurring within robust
thermodynamics characterized by PWs measured by GPS of 1.9 - 2.1
inches, over the 90th percentile for the date, overlapping MUCAPE
of 2000-300 J/kg. This has produced recent hourly rainfall
measured via MRMS of 1-1.5", leading to a few scattered FFWs from
the local WFOs overnight.

The recent high-res guidance is not excited about redeveloping
convection the next several hours, so confidence is modest as to
how this convection will evolve. However, even as the LLJ veers
diurnally through the morning, it should still maintain strong
thermodynamic advection northeastward, and will likely continue to
exceed the mean 850-300mb winds for several more hours. This
suggests further convective development, with the shortwave and
MCV providing locally backed and accelerated flow to additionally
support thunderstorm development. With the environment expected to
remain quite favorable for heavy rainfall rates, additional
thunderstorms will likely (>60% chance from both the REFS and
HREF) contain rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr. While cells should be
progressive to the ENE around 20 kts, repeating rounds of
convection are expected, leading to rainfall that has a 30-40%
chance of exceeding 3".

Most concerning for the continuing flash flood risk is that any
heavy rainfall associated with this convection will be occurring
atop very vulnerable soils. 7-day rainfall has been 300-600% of
normal, even excluding overnight rain, producing 0-40cm soil
moisture that is almost uniformly above the 95th percentile. This
has created compromised FFG that is around 2"/3hrs, but is locally
as low as just 0.25"/3hrs. This indicates that even as storms move progressively eastward and begin to weaken as the LLJ veers, any
heavy rain could result in additional instances of flash flooding
due to the sensitivity of the soils across the region.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7KrSWH2-CyW_uUSxW-m1538OKw0N5lIbfxw_R9gxiHHxbUNM8jX448_sS9UbIZ0Yj8sB= 7SGfd8jEFaJlM9xRKy209Dk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37939254 37849165 37299114 36969108 36529123=20
36039191 35449390 35169517 35059604 35439711=20
36089787 36589802 36939775 37059679 37069617=20
37069583 37309494 37529394 37769347=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to [email protected] on Saturday, June 27, 2026 12:01:37

AWUS01 KWNH 271201
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0539
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Middle MS and OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271200Z - 271800Z

SUMMARY...Regional concerns for flash flooding will continue over
the next several hours going into the early afternoon hours.
Repeating rounds of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity will
support new areas of flash flooding, and locally significant
impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
regional radar data shows an elongated axis of broken shower and
thunderstorm activity impacting areas of southern IL, southern IN,
and multiple areas of central KY. More recently some of this
activity has been edging into western WV as well. All of this
convection is associated with multiple MCVs that are embedded
within the westerly mid-level flow pattern across the Middle MS
and OH Valley region. Much of the region is very moist, with PWs
of 1.8 to 2.2 inches, and generally on the order of 2 to 2.5
standard deviations above normal for late June.

The early morning OSPO ALPW data shows substantial moisture in the
mid and upper-levels of the vertical column and supportive of
tall, skinny CAPE profiles. This is a rather classic warm rain
setup which is likely to result in extremely efficient convection
for high-end rainfall rate potential. Already the ejecting vort
energy is fostering sufficient lift for broken clusters/bands of
convection, but with nearly unidirectional flow through the
column, and upwind propagation vectors very weak and nearly
opposing the deeper layer mean flow, we are going to see an
environment conducive for backbuilding and training convection.

Already some hints of this are noted over areas of far southern IN
down through central KY. The MUCAPE values are on the order of
1000 to 2000 J/kg for much of the region, except for far eastern
KY and western WV where they are more in the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range. This coupled with the level of deep moisture in place and
high WCL depths will support rainfall rates easily into the 2 to 3
inch/hour range, with even some potential for rates higher than
this.

Given the repeating/training nature of the heavy rainfall threat,
some additional totals through 18Z (1PM CDT) may reach 3 to 5
inches, and there are multiple hires model CAMs that support this,
although there is disagreement on the placement. Radar and
satellite trends would favor areas of central KY probably seeing
the best potential for this. But areas farther west across
southeast MO into southern IL and southern IN will also see
separate bands of convection with very heavy rainfall potential.

The threat of flash flooding is increasing, and new areas of flash
flooding are expected over the next several hours. This will
include a threat for locally significant impacts going through
early this afternoon.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-v6y-LUeVOkLcucnluWUKaWtBNRxpjTO7R8XeeUt3uqCYjQ6_qo8dq0V0N2jRRnBdy9L= EZRH3y5PLgMPL5GIPkYkkeU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...RNK...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38998291 38658107 37608094 36748349 36528527=20
36338756 36249047 36519181 36969233 37569202=20
38049091 38378935 38548801 38768543=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to [email protected] on Saturday, June 27, 2026 18:02:45

AWUS01 KWNH 271802
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0540
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271800Z - 280000Z

SUMMARY...Locally repeating rounds of extremely heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue over the next several hours.
Significant and life-threatening flash flooding will remain a
threat into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with the latest radar shows broken areas of very heavy
showers and thunderstorms still impacting portions of central KY,
with recent strong development seen over parts of south-central
IL. Additionally, a very well-defined MCV is noted over southeast
MO which is advancing steadily off to the east. This energy has
been a major facilitator of the recent development over
south-central IL and is also driving some pockets convection
across far southern IL and far western KY.

Regionally, the airmass remains very moist with high PWs reaching
2.0 to 2.25 inches, and this is supported by the latest OSPO ALPW
data which shows high moisture concentrations well up into the
300/500 mb layer. Meanwhile, a substantial pool of instability is
becoming increasingly focused up across southern IL down through
western KY. Solar insolation has driven MLCAPE values of 1500 to
2500 J/kg across these areas, and this is bumping up against an
outflow boundary and downstream cold pool across portions of
southern IN and central KY.

The concern moving forward this afternoon and into the evening
hours will be the upstream MCV over southeast MO which will move
gradually across southern IL and into western KY. This should
interact with the strong thermodynamics downstream to drive an
uptick in convection and increasingly high rainfall rates.
However, the increasing warm air/theta-e advection around the
eastern flank of the MCV will likely interact with the downstream aforementioned outflow boundary/cold pool for an isentropic
component to the convective threat. Regenerating areas of
extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms may occur in time across
areas of southwest IN on down into central KY as this process
plays out by later this afternoon.

A 30 to 40+ kt southwest low-level jet is already in place, and
this focusing of moisture/instability transport up into the Lower
OH Valley coupled with the mesoscale boundaries and aforementioned
vort energy will support convection with extreme rainfall rates. A
highly conducive environment for backbuilding and training
convection will exist with the persistence of weak and nearly
opposing Corfidi vectors.

Rainfall rates are likely to reach 2 to 3+ inches/hour, and the
latest multi-model hires CAMs support as much as an additional 3
to 5+ inches of rain through early this evening. Already a number
of flash flooding reports, including a couple of catastrophic FFW
issuances (in central KY) have materialized today. The additional
rainfall over the next several hours will maintain a regional
threat for significant and life-threatening flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7zK4iAmUATvbCSmQGpiiD3hw2c7FS1aEeJck5a9bveBfh5l3VJq3IOW3WoyU8hBkpqEy= yBEpl3uGdkPnPHzvSklWxBY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...MEG...MRX...
OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39268901 39248707 38848546 38218429 37268335=20
36438320 35868405 35858596 36248809 36998995=20
37879071 38769047=20

=3D =3D =3D
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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to [email protected] on Saturday, June 27, 2026 18:08:44

AWUS01 KWNH 271808
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-280000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0541
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast VA and eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271806Z - 280000Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage through the early evening hours. Relatively slow cell
motions and backbuilding convection will lead to high rainfall
rates capable of producing flash flooding through 8 pm.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a rapid
increase in slow moving convection across the eastern Piedmont of
North Carolina and extending into western portions of the Hampton
Roads area of Southeast Virginia. This is also seen on recent
GOES-E visible and infrared satellite imagery with expanding anvil
canopies and cooling cloud tops.

The environment will be favorable for additional storms through
the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening given
anomalous 2.0-2.2 inch PWs, 1500-2500 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE,
and effective bulk shear on the order of 20-30 knots per recent
SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, there is a weak surface trough and
surface wind convergence in the general vicinity of the I-95
corridor, and nearly unidirectional flow in the low to mid levels
will support some back-building storms with higher rainfall rates
possibly exceeding 2 inches per hour.

The latest CAM guidance suite varies on the exact placement of the
heaviest QPF, but most agree on the potential for 2-4 inch maxima
across portions of this region through 8 pm local time. Much of
this is likely to fall within a two hour time period for most
locations affected, and episodes of flash flooding will be
possible as a result.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4kqN3Ad9UT-lCcPkkqBfSkR82wv3Lv_STa1BNimwdm1kJrlCKEfadK_d3XzO7gJkVVkM= bxRSI2FEIHGWe5xvqcwiv7I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37727668 37567632 37467619 37207616 36927588=20
36607583 36337583 36067597 35847602 35537623=20
35087653 34777694 34377747 33917774 33787830=20
33977860 34447910 34967929 35497921 35867893=20
36507828 36847798 37327776 37637748 37707711=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to [email protected] on Saturday, June 27, 2026 21:06:02

AWUS01 KWNH 272105
FFGMPD
MTZ000-280300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0542
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...East Central Montana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272103Z - 280300Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of slow moving thunderstorms is
expected through the late afternoon and into the evening hours.
Backbuilding cells may produce rainfall rates in excess of an inch
per hour that could result in some flooding issues.

DISCUSSION...Recent Doppler radar and GOES-E satellite imagery are
indicating a steady increase in convection across portions of
southeastern Montana, with the heaviest cells in the general
vicinity of the Interstate 90 corridor near Billings and points
south and east across the Crow Reservation. There has also been
more backbuilding of the convection across this area, and leading
to enhanced rainfall rates exceeding an inch per hour.

Environmental parameters are conducive for heavy rainfall given
anomalous PWs on the order of 1 inch, coupled with strong left
exit region dynamics from a deep upper trough to the west
promoting deep layer ascent. Recent CAM guidance depicts patchy
areas of 1-2 inch rainfall totals through 9 pm local time, with
much of this falling within a two hour time period for any given
location. This may be enough to result in some instances of flash
flooding across the outlook area.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9-CzOEXPI5vDBWvouMv7WANfpQj55yMd_hCQ0G5Fp43_kkqMj70tOimBTHBDBcYMQ_Du= 5KYAohDYu1Xhpu9yyigAlH0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 48980650 48950510 48810452 47830458 46570531=20
45460600 45100660 45060796 45170837 45780865=20
46510843 47630807 48790727=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to [email protected] on Sunday, June 28, 2026 00:15:23

AWUS01 KWNH 280015
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-280600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0543
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Central KY...Northern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280012Z - 280600Z

SUMMARY...Additional heavy rainfall through the late evening into
the early overnight hours will likely lead to additional instances
of flash flooding across southern Kentucky into northern Tennessee
through 2Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars continue to indicate a large
mesoscale convective system ongoing across much of central and
western Kentucky, with multiple areas of training convective
elements leading to enhanced rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per
hour at times. Much of central Kentucky has already been hammered
with extremely heavy rainfall earlier today, with many reports in
excess of 4 inches already, and therefore flash flood guidance is
severely reduced.

The latest CAM guidance suggests the axis of heaviest rainfall
will probably drift southward over the next several hours and
affect areas across the state line into northern Tennessee, mainly
along and north of the Interstate 40 corridor. This will allow the
complex to tap into a more unstable thermodynamic environment
where mixed layer CAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg is present
and effective bulk shear of about 30 knots. PWs are also quite
high, at or above 2 inches across western portions of the outlook
area. The potential exists for maxima of 2-4 inches, and isolated
higher totals, within the main axis of training convection. Given
the extremely saturated ground conditions across much of Kentucky,
flash flooding is considered likely.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9obIGTiIno5kd3NqEzmiKJ6tRI2LwNFEYdiRyUSeHEKb0_5qa8PcB0SMWpZjjqnibnHg= _H2QFo0DQ_PB4zgSKBZFoO0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38008512 37668378 36618349 35738380 35438418=20
35388487 35608590 36078713 36338813 36618877=20
36948901 37358880 37558830 37858668=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, July 26, 2026 01:03:14

AWUS01 KWNH 260103
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-260530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0849...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
901 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Corrected for Deleted line in Summary Statement and Spelling.

Areas affected...Much of Arizona...West-central New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252345Z - 260530Z

SUMMARY...Scattered incidents of potential flash flooding continue
through early overnight, especially in the higher terrain across
the Mogollon Rim into Mogollon Mountains. Rates up to 1.5" and
localized totals to 2".

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible imagery shows
organized band of thunderstorms or weak mesoscale complex across
the central Mogollon Rim starting to descend into the lower valley
of central AZ. However, stronger outflow and slightly less
unstable air (higher Temp/Td spread in Sun Valley) and slightly
divergent low level flow, may help to skip over the more populated
area as suggested by the vast majority of hi-res CAM solutions.
However, with night fall, southerly flow off the northern Sea of
Cortez will help to surge northward and sizably increase low level
moisture convergence for additional development over and southwest
of the Phoenix Metro area. Spots of 1"/hr rates should refocus
toward LaPaz and W Maricopa county with some potential into SW
Maricopa as well.

However, instability has been building over SE AZ and newer
development is starting to sprout within the confluent area along
the western portion of the slow moving mid-level shortwave near
the AZ/NM border. The outflow out of Gila county should further
help to focus convergence and broader scale ascent for increasing
scattered cells. Lower dew-point depressions and increasing total
PWats up to 1.25-1.5" may support increasing rainfall efficiency
with spots of 1.25-1.5"/hr possible.

Upstream along the northern edge of the shortwave trough, had a
bit more insolation throughout the day and slight cooling aloft
with continued east to east-southeast upslope out of the Rio Grand
Valley has helped to see a larger scale over-turning and
convective initiation from far Eastern AZ into the Gallo, Mogollon
Ranges. Solid upstream streets of low cu also suggest lingering
persistence of inflow to help maintain the cells into smaller
clusters that will advance west into the eastern San Francisco
Plateau. Here, northward advancing outflow from the Rim complex
will also increased low level moisture flux convergence to enhance
the leading edge cells. Rates of 1.5" and slowing forward cell
motions may allow for localized 2"+ totals which may result in
localized flash flooding concerns.

Overall, loss of insolation will likely reduce overall intensity
and coverage from 03-06z for most areas, with additional
development likely along the flanking outflow of dying storms
seeking out any remaining areas of unstable air.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4j80JQwL37AnvHyedL2kHsGQ6QorWtqf1Ca1CI-g3cVOUbF0FXd0vZzDAffVv6QyEtprzg8pJL6-C-kQHpwaXBPdO9s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36190969 35960892 35470837 34820801 33960779
33440818 33330902 33100921 31790926 31290951
31281083 31511176 32251251 32861346 33331398
34111402 34691372 35121331 35401283 35631230
35641151 35881078 36111016

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, July 26, 2026 16:48:18

AWUS01 KWNH 261648
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0850
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1247 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...Eastern South Carolina into extreme Southeast
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261646Z - 262200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across South
Carolina and drop slowly southeast through the afternoon. Short
term rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are possible, leading to isolated
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows rapid
expansion of elevated reflectivity associated with deepening
convection over the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Farther upstream
into the Midlands, the GOES-E experimental day-cloud phase RGB
indicates a slow coverage increase of mixed-phase and glaciating
clouds, suggesting additional convection is set to blossom across
the state. This activity is building along a stationary front
analyzed by WPC, with additional contribution to ascent being
provided by a wave of low pressure moving along the front with
weak mid-level vorticity support. This lift is occurring within
impressive thermodynamics characterized by PWs measured by GPS of
2.1 to 2.2 inches, above the 90th percentile for the date,
combined with MLCAPE that has surged to over 2000 J/kg within a
ribbon south of the wavering front.

This environment is likely to support additional convective
development during the next few hours, and this is reflected by
the majority of high-res CAM simulated reflectivity, albeit with
continued uncertainty into the placement and coverage of activity.
Despite that, it is more certain that any convection that does
develop will contain intense rain rates as reflected by both HREF
and REFS neighborhood probabilities reaching 30-50% for 2"/hr
rainfall, with the 15-min HRRR indicating at least short duration
rain rates above 3"/hr. Mean flow from the NW and aligned to the
stationary boundary suggests a training/repeating setup for
convection through the aftn. Additionally, as the sea breeze
develops and tries to push inland, it will serve as an additional
focus for convective development, and will likely result in
slowing or stalling storms near the coast where Corfidi vectors
drop to around 5 kts. This will support rainfall in a few areas
reaching 2-3", with localized amounts to 5" possible (10-15%
chance).

7-day rainfall has been around, to slightly below, normal across
much of the Midlands and Lowcountry, leading to FFG that is
elevated around 2-3"/1hr, and HREF exceedance probabilities peak
at only 10-20%. However, the training/slow movement of these
intense rain rates could still be sufficient to overcome this FFG,
with the greatest risk occurring near the coast/stalled storms or
across any urban areas with naturally less drainage.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-qwIlYZ1xN7dW8A5ULvyIGezOsPxQAKuUOMlgNrrBEl15BwERX1mw1OU-wQJ5B7MW0SNp8K4O6IBOzgvikcV-IExjzg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33958043 33807997 33427951 33097940 32657978
32228020 31968054 31878093 32098136 32428148
32888161 33338158 33618137 33908102

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, July 26, 2026 18:27:34

AWUS01 KWNH 261827
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-270030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0851
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...Northeast/East-Central AZ...
Northwest/West-Central NM...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261830Z - 270030Z

SUMMARY...Another active day for slow moving monsoon thunderstorms
across the central and eastern Mogollon Rim into Mogollon
Mountains and northeastward toward the Four Corners. Ample
low-level moisture and weak flux convergence should support
1-1.25"/hr rates and highly focused 1.5-2" totals may induce
localized flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denotes that embedded
shortwave/vorticity center has shifted into the central portion of
the synoptic ridge across the Four Corners region very close to
Gallup. Low level flow is responding to the weak motions with
general upslope flow out of the southern deserts of Arizona into
up the Mogollon to the San Francisco Plateau. CIRA LPW 700-500mb
denotes pooled moisture surrounding the shortwave with maximized
across the central Mogollon and back toward the Mogollon, Black
and San Mateo Ranges in western NM. As such, total available
PWats are in the 1-1.25" range.

GOES-E Visible imagery shows broader shield of broken mid-level
clouds over much of northern Arizona and western San Francisco
Plateau with solid clearing for insolation across much of the
central and eastern Rim and Mountains of NM as well. Temps have
risen through the mid-80s and with Tds in the upper 50s,
instability (SBCAPE) has risen to locally above 1500 J/kg...and so
cloud cover will help further strengthening a differential heating
boundary from the central Mogollon into NW NM. Mountain
circulation combined with the confluent flow toward the shortwave
is starting to result in localized convective initiation with some
fairly strong updraft responses even this early near in S Apache
county. It may take a bit of time for some sub-cloud moistening
of the profile, but rain rates should increase toward .75-1" over
the next few hours. Slow cell motions, particularly near the
shortwave, may help residency though concern of downdrafts too
close in proximity to updrafts could be a limiting factor for
duration, but there should be scattered incidents of better
up/down displacement to allow for 1.5-2" totals locally. So all
considered scattered incidents of localized heavy rainfall on
hard, rocky grounds may support incidents of flash flooding
through the afternoon into evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-D8o81CPI3xfcZRB1QENDM-ryLS9W-ZFl66H7UZNV67pE04202eY0IFb7-_zlHdX2fPAdEcClvPyZjlkEiGWJ7EevbI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36570864 36030746 34800742 33840745 32910782
32820881 33350950 33881031 34191137 34471251
35361263 35741124 36491034

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, July 26, 2026 18:43:04

AWUS01 KWNH 261842
FFGMPD
FLZ000-270030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0852
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261840Z - 270030Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will expand and
drift across the Florida Peninsula into this evening. Rainfall
rates of 3"/hr or more are likely, leading to locally as much as
5" of rain. This may cause instances of flash flooding, especially
across urban areas.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this aftn shows rapidly
expanding convective cells blossoming across much of the Florida
Peninsula. Although most of these cells are scattered and small,
the day-cloud phase RGB and corresponding LightningCast
probabilities have clear indicators of additional convective
growth, and this should result in widespread thunderstorms in the
next few hours. This activity is building in response to
impressive thermodynamics characterized by near-record PWs of 2.1
to 2.3 inches as measured via the 15Z XMR sounding and regional
GPS measurements, overlapping 3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Light W/NW
synoptic flow in the low-to-mid levels is pushing convection
inland from the Gulf, with these cells expected to track across
the Peninsula before slowing on the east coast in response to
merging with the Atlantic sea breeze.

MRMS hourly rainfall has recently reached above 1.5" in some
areas, and this is despite generally modest updraft strength so
far within the fresh convection. However, with the Gulf breeze and
accompanying outflow boundaries (thanks to pulse convection in
weak shear) pushing into the extreme thermodynamics, rainfall
rates should continue to intensify through the aftn. This is
reflected by both REFS and HREF neighborhood probabilities
reaching 30-50% for 3+"/hr, and the 1subhourly HRRR indicating
1+"/15 min (brief 4+"/hr rates). These intense rainfall rates will
be occurring within slow moving storms on 0-6km mean winds of just
5-10 kts from the W/NW, and as Corfidi vectors veer and collapse
to less than 5 kts near the Atlantic coast, this will result in
2-4" of rainfall with locally more than 5" possible (30-60%
chance).

This area of Florida can generally tolerate heavy rainfall, and
0-40cm soil moisture is normal to well-below normal after recent
dryness. This has led to 3-hr FFG that that is widespread above 4
inches, for which the HREF exceedance probabilities peak only
around 15%. This suggests that most areas can handle this type of
rainfall, but where any storms stall to lengthen the duration of
these intense rain rates, or should a slow moving storm drift
across an urban area, flash flooding could result.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6UIAr28yjM9i1vbrlYcgTOAxpFAFKwFpQ2gnfcXeUYelpQFA3FJvWzWFjurE2VceCu-YPhFWZb7qwrNDAIUON-RKLbg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30508149 30078125 29268082 28378043 27758019
27007989 26317987 25658010 25408042 25738081
26298108 27108135 28398158 29538176 30178179

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, July 26, 2026 18:56:36

AWUS01 KWNH 261856
FFGMPD
COZ000-UTZ000-270100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0853
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...Colorado Rockies into Eastern Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261900Z - 270100Z

SUMMARY...Enhanced convective activity is possible today with
southerly confluent flow out of the Southwest along the northwest
edge of the deep layer ridge. Slow cell motions and rates of
1"/hr may allow for widely scattered 1-1.5" totals in
short-duration. Rocky/hard ground conditions suggest higher
run-off for widely scattered, localized flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows area of scattered to
numerous developing updrafts along the spines of most of the main
ranges across Colorado and eastern UT at this time. WV suite
shows the center of the synoptic upper-level ridge is centered
across SE Colorado with a slight tilt with height as the 5H is
nearer the Sagre de Cristo Range, while the 3H is more in far
southeast High Plains of CO. Overall, this is result in broad
southwesterly flow out of the San Francisco Plateau into the
western slopes of the Rockies. However, there is a low-level trough/convergence axis from the Palmer-Lake Divide northeast into
far SW NEB near KMCK. Anti-cyclonic northerly and northeasterly
moist low level flow is also banking up across the northern
Colorado Rockies, to further enhance mountain circulation
development. Hence the convective activity is a bit more mature
there compared to central or western ranges. RAP analysis has 1
to 1.25" Total PWats banking upward, while 1.25" totals have crept
into SE UT with even .7 to .85" over the peaks of the central CO
Rockies; so there is ample moisture to work with.

Clear skies through the morning allowed for increased temperatures
in the 70s and 80s in the terrain and SBCAPEs have risen to
500-1000 J/kg, further localized heating may result in localized
15000 J/kg over the next few hours. Given deep layer low level
convergence but also subtle southwest to northeast rounding aloft,
should supply weak but sufficient divergence aloft while not
increasing deep layer steering flow, allowing for some vertical
tilt of updrafts for multiple cycles and some increased residency
for moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall.

Additionally, RAP forecasts suggest shortwave to the south in NW
NM will start to shift northward into the building right entrance
to the upper-level jet to support some modest dPVA aloft to help
maintain broad ascent pattern toward late afternoon. As such,
spotty 1"/hr rates may have capability for some repeats locally
for 1.5" totals through 00z; with greatest potential along the San
Juan Range. So all considered, highly focused but scattered
incidents of flash flooding are considered possible again today.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_TP8_lXzGCra6JEFPpzlyWHPBQxiUwMZmZgtiJ7Y09_ZNSd5KG0bNcE0nvNmZyxTEl3211UHC7lEwRb0DYkz4lGBCR8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40920657 40820571 40470524 39880512 39270509
38610534 38350596 38090663 37240639 37010676
37020762 37100836 37450933 38350987 39110998
39930961 40550863 40880731

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, July 26, 2026 19:21:08

AWUS01 KWNH 261920
FFGMPD
UTZ000-270100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0854
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...Southwest to north-central Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261920Z - 270100Z

SUMMARY...Scattered incident(s) of possible flash flooding along
terrain of Southwest to central Utah. Deep layer steering flow
parallel to the terrain may help for spotty short-term repeating
and totals of 1-1.25" locally.

DISCUSSION...A weakening MCV can be seen in far NW AZ lifting
northward and likely will deflect more northward and NNE with time
into SW UT. Downstream of the older dying debris cloud, full
insolation across the central UT terrain and low level moisture
streaming through the Lower Colorado gap into SW UT and further is
noted with increasing Tds into the mid to lower 50s. CIRA LPW
also notes, the downshear axis of the shortwave also has enhanced
pooled moisture in an arch that extends parallel to the central
Range as well. This helps to maximize column moisture values
through the terrain as the mountain circulation upslope starts to
maximize over the last hour or so. Core of upper-level jet
exists over NE NV into N UT, providing some ageostrophic flow and
weak divergence along the southeast edge of the jet axis for
additional broad scale support.

As such, recent RADAR loop and GOES-Visible imagery depict
increasing convective activity along the spine given all the
supportive ascent features. Total moisture slowly increasing to
above 1" to help the limited instability (250-500 J/kg) noted in
RAP analysis. As such, vigor and moisture loading will likely be
a bit more limited and rates of .5-.75" may slowly increase to
1"/hr toward late afternoon. The increasing concern is deep layer
steering is generally parallel to the terrain, allowing for
upslope to continue along both directions in the sub-cloud region
as well as allow for downdraft cores to track along the spine for
some potential repeating. Given the vigor of the updraft may be
limited totals of 1-1.25" will require the repeating, but steep
terrain, burn scars and proximity to slot canyons still wouldn't
take and moisture availability would support sub-hourly totals of
0.5". As such, scattered incidents of flash flooding will remain
possible through the afternoon/evening across southwest to central
UT.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-DBPUXqx28dY4we7ExejBYPx3-Z0s7OnFOMJdC2XlJ9tK8wEDjrydEv5R0M1RNokSHSy31c7W65mnDyiD42CjikU91E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40741022 39741016 38391054 37391156 37271292
37601376 38421373 39091324 39731252 40671131

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, July 26, 2026 22:22:56

AWUS01 KWNH 262222
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-270400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0855
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
621 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...Central & Southern IL...Southwest IND...Western
KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262220Z - 270400Z

SUMMARY...Extremely unstable air mass with ample moisture will
support highly efficient thunderstorms capable of 3"/hr rates.
However, mean steering flow is likely to allow for progressive
squall line to develop. Best potential for prolonged heavy
rainfall will be along upstream edge with good back-building
potential and training. Spots of 2-4" are probable with localized
flash flooding conditions possible.

DISCUSSION...Please refer to MCD 1746 (2148z), issued by SPC, for
more details on severe weather potential across the region.
However, along with severe, high moisture content through depth
will allow for efficient rainfall production.

22z surface analysis shows a stationary fron from south-central WI
(DLL to JVL) across northern IL RPJ to AAA to a weak surface low
near FOA before angling SE across SW IND near KEVV int W KY near
BWG and west of CSV. This differential heating boundary separates
mid to upper 90s Temps from low to mid 80s due to mid-level stratus/cirro-stratus deck that aligns with shearing/elongating
shortwave trough. The center of which is just NE of DEC, with a
stronger more concentric wave in Northern IA racing southeast
along a tight/strong gradient of a 100-110kt upper-level jet
across the Great Lakes. CIRA LPW shows a pool of enhanced mid to
upper-level moisture with the lead shearing shortwave in IL with
over .5" in the 700-500mb layer, .5-.7" in the 850-700 layer
combining with Surface Tds in the low 80F for a centroid of TPW of
2.25-2.5" values and mixing ratios over 22 g/kg.

As such, the low-level environment is extremely unstable with
MLCAPEs of 5500-6000 J/kg across central IL. Currently VWP and
RAP analysis show 15-20kts of westerly 850mb flow intersecting the
frontal boundary sufficiently for solid moisture convergence to
initiate a few stronger updrafts. East of the boundary winds are
also convergent to the boundary to help further steepen isentropic
ascent. As noted in SPC MCD...storm mode may initially support
rotating updrafts, that further enhance storm-scale moisture flux
convergence due to speed increase as well as directional
convergence and may allow for significant moisture loading for
3"/hr rates (or higher sub-hourly rates).

Steering flow is also supportive of increased residency/rainfall
totals as 800 to 400mb flow is fairly parallel to the boundary;
though the strength of the flow is likely to be more of limiting
factor for increased duration given mean flow 30-35kts. Still any
intersection and potential for training with these rates may
result in localized 2-4" totals very quickly.

Currently, Hi-Res CAMs support a more scattered storm mode with
slow expansion toward some MCS/squall line features after night
fall as the LLJ also increases; so flash flooding risk remains
possible and more widely scattered in nature. However, there is
growing concern given the orientation of the elongating shortwave
exiting quickly into SW IND and an approaching stronger wave
upstream out of IA, the flanking low-level moisture convergence
will support back-building along the frontal toward the
approaching wave. This will allow for better regime for training
and intersection with upstream thunderstorms already forming in
east-central IA. There is greater uncertainty with placement,
timing and coverage with this evolution; however, it would pose
the greatest potential for even locally higher totals in excess of
5"+.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-abXH8dPl70fysVjt2kr2OwG6zTgkZ0Hy4UogD4cwr1RdcXEiIGHCVRoC0h5nzd5_bH7Vy4SS7pUR6aimXDB-Y_kvSE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40889017 39538796 38348597 37688550 36958579
36708668 36868801 37508887 38308959 38999012
40099090 40719093

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 00:49:56

AWUS01 KWNH 270048
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-270600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0856
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...Four Corners Region...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270050Z - 270600Z

SUMMARY...Convection/Outflow seeking out remaining unstable
pockets. Ample moisture over 1.25" should still support rates of
1-1.25" locally, but reducing in coverage/magnitude with loss of
heating expected. Isolated incidents of flash flooding remain
into early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and WV suite shows mid-level vorticity
center has slowly slid north-northwest over the last few hours
with low to mid-level warm clouds under cirrus canopy generally
converging toward the center as well seeking out remaining pockets
of conditionally unstable air. CIRA LPW still shows enhanced
700-500mb moisture across much of the San Francisco Plateau into
NW New Mexico while 850-700mb slowly still funnels northeastward
onto the Plateau itself. Pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE
remain in those clearer areas between initial convective
development with outflow boundaries propagating towards it: most
notably in SW CO toward the Four Corners proper, and northeastward
moving boundary in northwest NM.

While coverage is slightly diminishing there remain overshooting
tops breaking through the canopy including through the western
Mogollon Rim and back toward the Gila Mountains in eastern AZ.
Given the overall moisture ranging from 1-1.25", solid flux
convergence; rates of 1-1.25" can still be expected in isolated
spots and may result in localized flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_71UeW4pvak1fu3A3lPuSgSz7NxzGnOdTQCilPYrMO0LW46IXFlDJCgsKZOb58qNK3x9Bzg_bZVM8NuvYsTTkcfEW2U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39250908 39080771 38450599 37480564 36330595
34580659 33800739 33320904 33931018 34321091
34241191 34911238 35661220 36331134 36811056
37200986 37890980 38310971 38940983

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 15:57:42

AWUS01 KWNH 081557
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081855-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0974
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1156 AM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...ArkLaTex and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081555Z - 081855Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding risk continues across the
Arklatex...

Discussion... A near stationary band of thunderstorms has
developed across Southwest Arkansas along an outflow boundary from
convection across the area this morning. Convection is also
forming along this boundary westward to the Texas/Oklahoma border.
Satellite shows convection and lightning expanding within this
storm cluster. Rainfall rates (per MRMS) are as high as 2-3" per
hour on a localized basis, nearing hourly FFG thresholds, while
MRMS Flash responses were low to moderate, suggestive of local
runoff potential beneath ongoing cells.

The storms are embedded in 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (per RAP/SPC
mesoanalyses) and 2 inch PW values, supporting heavy rainfall and
efficient rainfall processes. This moisture/instability combo
along with subtle confluence rooted in the 850-700mb layer should
sustain storms for at least another couple hours. Weak steering
flow aloft will enable slow/negligible storm motions, and spots of
2-3 inch/hr rain rates are likely to occur while storms persist.

Models/CAMs suggest that this threat may diminish through 18-19Z
or so as weak low- to mid-level convergence further weakens.These
trends will be monitored through the early afternoon as there
remains some uncertainty if the storms may persist beyond this
time period.

Cook/Wilder

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5QyJ2iRPGqMoWOkDx9XRQZJWqW1Qxop2W2xXpNNEUJRsLU7qj6fbDklwzjn1DyjIAO3S6IVKTDxwzNOYA997Q_12SnY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34819317 34679216 33979209 33259368 32989584
33009634 33859639 34319522

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 16:26:14

AWUS01 KWNH 081626
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-081954-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0975
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1225 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...I-95 urban corridor from Baltimore to
Philadelphia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081624Z - 081954Z

Summary...A few areas of heavy rainfall could pose a primarily
urban flash flood threat along the I-95 corridor over the next 2-4
hours.

Discussion...A forward-propagating line of convection is currently
organized along an axis from York/Harrisburg, PA southwestward to
Frederick, MD. The storms are moving at a decent pace (around
25-30 knots or so), but are in an environment characterized by 1.8
inch PW values and ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The downstream airmass will
likely support a continued heavy rainfall threat with this
activity, and areas of 0.5 inch/hr rain rates (locally higher)
will accompany this activity as it reaches the Baltimore to
Philadelphia I-95 corridor and surrounding area through
approximately 1730-1830Z (130-230p eastern). Local FFG thresholds
are near zero across Baltimore and closer to 1 inch/hr near
Philadelphia, though urban sensitivities could result in excessive
runoff even with sub-FFG threshold rainfall rates. Areas of
primarily urban flash flood instances are possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8dyZNF6IXYUjUrHMYGZarQHXyNpkOl1AAlsdX0C0nppcZlbnKh_Z5erEt5U5Hwsgftw0jnV_20spLhgTBYoCRsd5s3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40707502 40327430 39517416 38937483 38707660
39197709 40397687 40617627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 18:45:00

AWUS01 KWNH 081844
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0977
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Arklatex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081843Z - 090030Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates
continue across portions of the Arklatex region. Additional areas
of flash flooding will be possible over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and radar data suggests
evidence of a slow-moving vort across the Arklatex region which
continues to interact with a very moist and unstable airmass for
redeveloping areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPE
values across far northeast TX through northern LA and far
southern AR are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg, with PWs of
generally 1.8 to 2.0 inches based on the latest RAP analysis.

This strongly favorable thermodynamic environment coupled with
small-scale vort dynamics and surface outflow boundary activity
should help to maintain a convective threat across the broader
Arklatex region over the next several hours.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with
the stronger storms given the level of moisture and instability
that is in place. While the shear is limited, these storms should
still have some localized organization along any outflow boundary
collisions. This coupled with slow cell-motions overall may allow
for some additional rainfal totals of 3 to 4+ inches to occur.

FFG values are quite high over the region, and therefore these
additional rains should generally favor an isolated and mainly
urban flash flood threat going through the afternoon and early
evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9XgyE-CzbGeOqG5BYwrUSp0MgxuriDDy1jOZzV3Q1O6zVRZu5gyA21PuSGIAXHTkVhjj9M65PyfakXTuGDN3k8q_rto$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34119395 34039310 33889255 33589196 33249171
32689171 32249187 31969249 31929371 32129481
32539569 32939591 33479583 33859548 34029488

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 18:13:58

AWUS01 KWNH 081813
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-090000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0976
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081812Z - 090000Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates will promote concerns for at least isolated
areas of flash flooding going through the afternoon and early
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling
cloud tops across areas of northern MS, western TN and northwest
AL in association with developing clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. Additional activity is also noted farther east
across the Cumberland Plateau region of eastern TN. The activity
is initiating and expanding in coverage as a well-defined
mid-level vort center over eastern AR drifts east into a very
moist and unstable airmass pooled up across the broader Mid-South.
Farther east, there is also the influence from terrain and
differential heating boundaries.

MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and PWs of 1.75 to 2+ inches
are in place across the region. The strong boundary layer heating
with solar insolation will continue to help drive increasing
levels of instability over the next few hours, and this will
couple with the evolution of smaller-scale outflow boundary
activity for additional convection to develop and expand in
coverage. Local orographic ascent near areas of elevation will
also be a key player in driving more areas of convection.

The morning 12Z RAOB soundings from KLZK, KBNA and KBMX confirm
rather high WBZ heights and plenty of moisture extending through
the vertical column. This will support high efficiency with this
afternoon's convection with high rainfall rates that will be
capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms.

The lack of effective bulk shear suggests the convective mode
should mainly be pulse in nature, but there may be enough outflow
boundary collisions and cold pool activity to facilitate some
loosely organized multi-cell convection. This coupled with slow
cell-motions and some cell-merger potential may help yield some
localized 3 to 4+ inch rainfall totals over the next several
hours. This will drive a threat for at least isolated areas of
flash flooding, with the more urbanized locations at greatest risk
for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VZ7YQLm-IPvAN2vO8MiVW4I8hW0Uf--izJd1ZDx5jXrLL2cChBgz6jlFytWi6OQDzj3b3a67U2UeiBvZT2P7kqvZiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG... MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36988713 36978567 36768460 36218393 35368413
35138428 34648491 34238588 33788845 33059043
33159148 33609158 34919046 36019006 36558893

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 21:58:54

AWUS01 KWNH 082158
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-090345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0978
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
557 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northwest AZ...Southern NV...Southwest
UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082157Z - 090345Z

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for flash flooding will exist from
scattered areas of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms through
early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W satellite imagery, LightningCast,
and GREMLIN products show scattered areas of locally heavy showers
and thunderstorms impacting portions of southeast NV through
southwest UT and northwest/central AZ. New areas of convection are
expected to initiate and locally expand in coverage this afternoon
through early this evening as the full diurnal heating cycle plays
out.

Much of the activity will continue to be terrain-focused, but the
activity will increasingly move off areas of higher terrain over
the next few hours and propagate downwind into areas of stronger
boundary layer instability and also with potential for interacting
with multiple outflow boundaries.

SBCAPE values have reached locally as high as 1000 J/kg with the
continuation of strong boundary layer heating, and with areas of
terrain still enhancing some differential heating boundaries,
convection will still be capable of focusing along these mesoscale
features throughout the afternoon.

PWs are as high as 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across
areas of southern NV down into western AZ. These elevated PWs are
due to the deeper layer transport of monsoonal moisture around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge over the Southwest.

The model guidance is overall pretty modest with its QPF over the
next several hours, but with areas of deeper and sustainable cloud
top cooling seen, there will be concerns for locally heavy
rainfall. Slow cell-motions and the degree of moisture that is in
place may foster some rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches/hour, but
this would be highly isolated in nature. The instability uptick
across areas of central and western AZ to the west of the Mogollon
Rim may facilitate the development or sustenance of westward
moving convection off the terrain of the Mogollon Rim. Some spotty
rainfall amounts may reach up to 2 inches going through early this
evening, and this may result in an isolated occurrence of some
flash flooding. The local burn scar and slot canyon areas will be
most susceptible to potential impacts along with the normally dry
washes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_vLBcmIRYoGBWz-RH8uDA1daSe_vl4ihuRegqtxtpZnygjahDen6vYMZ5aol1WKbM7sMEBRqI907QdIOxMSMFhSRAdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40071466 39501390 38931273 39061190 38611130
37531144 36891148 36111145 35331121 34731077
34420995 33840972 33261013 33091109 33231233
33831331 34561379 35401404 36311432 36891480
37331621 37681691 38331739 39491723 39991621

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 22:49:54

AWUS01 KWNH 082249
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-090300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0979
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Southwest to Central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082248Z - 090300Z

SUMMARY...An isolated and mainly urban flash flood threat will
exist this evening. This will include the Raleigh-Durham
metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows some
cooling convective tops across areas of southwest to central NC in
association with a broken axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Surface data shows the activity focused along a well-defined and
convectively reinforced surface trough.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg are pooled along this
boundary, and it is quite moist with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches in
place. This airmass combined with modest moisture convergence and
weakly divergent flow aloft may help to sustain the convective
threat at least into a portion of the evening time frame.

Some of the 18Z HREF/REFS guidance suggests some locally heavy
rains with potential for 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates and
perhaps a few spotty 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals where some highly
localized cell-training takes place. As the aforementioned
instability pool is exhausted, the convection should weaken later
this evening, but at least for a few hours this evening, there
will be an isolated and mainly urban flash flood threat. This will
include areas near and west of the Raleigh-Durham metropolitan
area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-fLhsvz83JM_uZiw5uFWNWi8XZarFjiV8DZPoXe7mqiOkjZ6ySMm5S2Zd6tz8mNTxvWFtPZwGyRaKeq6wjDIwxAtYF4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36307857 36287803 36067782 35767794 35457839
35247907 35117997 35028082 35038159 35088199
35248218 35448209 35608168 35808087 36028002
36187929

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 00:19:36

AWUS01 KWNH 090019
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0980
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Sierra Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090017Z - 090400Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally anchored thunderstorms over the
Sierra Nevada may persist for a few more hours. This will maintain
at least a localized flash flood threat over sensitive sloped
terrain and possibly burn scars.

DISCUSSION...Relatively anomalous monsoonal moisture pooling along
the crest of the Sierra Nevada working in tandem with the diurnal
heating cycle and orographic ascent has led to the development of
slow-moving thunderstorms over the higher terrain.

Radar and satellite imagery shows some of these cells becoming
quite focused over the higher terrain of Alpine and Mono Counties
in particular, and these cells may tend to persist locally for
another couple of hours. Terrain-driven circulations related to
the differential heating boundaries are the primary driver of some
of these cell-anchored storms, and with the moisture profiles that
are in place, some additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2+ inches
will be possible. This is being aided by pockets of MUCAPE around
500 to 1000+ J/kg.

Additional areas of small-scale flash flooding will be possible
which may include burn scar locations and also the more sensitive
sloped terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_8fCO4U4NO_mrTi4Lh2BX7DjLGTSKP68zDwdyZVDB6qtJmoNBR_drIDqjiQRbwlRt3EC1bSldH46BotMR2SBlteWoIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...REV...STO...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38861998 38821971 38601935 38181892 37571847
36871819 36421814 36321861 37041903 37661950
38272013 38702031

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 02:09:44

AWUS01 KWNH 090209
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-090700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0981
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1007 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper OH Valley and Northern
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090207Z - 090700Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of thunderstorms with some
cell-training concerns may result in at least some isolated areas
of flash flooding going into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar data shows some clusters of convection tending to expand in
coverage across areas of central to northeast OH, western PA, and
into southwest NY. The activity is focusing along and ahead of a
cold front dropping southeast across the region as an upper-level
trough and corridor of upper-level jet energy transits the Great
Lakes region.

MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are pooled up across these
areas along with an axis of 1.75+ inch PWs. This coupled with
broadly divergent flow aloft and a belt of stronger shear will
help to drive potentially some additional expansion of convection
over the next few hours.

Some localized cell-training will be possible with some of the
swaths of convection over the next few hours, and with rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour expected with the stronger storms,
there may be some spotty areas of 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals.

FFG values are generally rather low across the Upper OH Valley and
adjacent areas of the northern Mid-Atlantic, so these corridors of thunderstorms going into portions of the overnight period may
result in at least some isolated areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5SUEI4qKpizBZEs4hsioO9rBqd9R_rpnJ65ZepWge4Xx1GZAaMrp8K7cVJjzg4_jeVo4dLTF8kc8TJDliHx9P37RftQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43137656 42887538 42377495 41487560 40177808
39297925 38408038 38028153 38188276 38788355
39408350 40478261 41438108 41898000 42287907
42677815 42957755

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 05:38:08

AWUS01 KWNH 090537
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-091130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0982
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 AM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...South Dakota through Southern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090534Z - 091130Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage during the next several hours and train across eastern
South Dakota into Minnesota. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr are likely,
which through training could produce 2-4+" of rain. Flash flooding
is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows a slow
expansion of slow moving thunderstorms near the SD/ND border, with
additional scattered thunderstorms farther east into MN. This
activity is blossoming in response to a strengthening LLJ emerging
from NE, now being measured via regional VWPs as high as 40-55
kts. The S/SW orientation of this LLJ is drawing impressive
thermodynamics northward as reflected by GPS measured PWs of 1.3
to 1.5 inches, around the 90th percentile for the date,
overlapping a ribbon of extreme MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. A weak
shortwave digging out of ND to interact with this LLJ in a region
of modest mid-level thickness diffluence is additionally enhancing
ascent, and it is likely activity is on the precipice of rapid
expansion as reflected by a steady increase in LightningCast
probabilities over the Dakotas/Minnesota.

The HRRR is initializing poorly tonight, but some of the high-res
CAMs including the RRFS have at least some semblance of the
current activity to help with the progged evolution. As the LLJ
continues to ramp up and surge northward, it will sharpen both the
convergence axis and the resulting CAPE gradient to cause what
should be a NW to SE arcing line of thunderstorms through the
overnight. Mean 0-6km winds from the west (and region of more
impressive thermodynamics) combined with Corfidi vectors aligned
to the LLJ nose suggest upstream development will occur, leading
to training as cells move repeatedly to the southeast. With
rainfall rates potentially eclipsing 2"/hr at times (10-20% chance
from the REFS), this could lean to a corridor of 2-4" of rainfall
with locally higher amounts possible.

7-day rainfall across this region has been below normal with just
a few exceptions in southern MN. This has allowed 3-hr FFG to
recover to 2-2.5 inches, for which REFS exceedance probabilities
peak around 30%. This suggests that despite the relatively dry
antecedent conditions, the training of these intense rain rates
could still overwhelm the soils, leading to instances of flash
flooding through the overnight and into the early morning hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4_6znjrjbKM8d-4FNIVmr_DCwj7NROZaYykGtBqeWnrsuDCSy5NzmrlhYeRWroTxbwYWRoAXpREu6yM1FgE-Gnesm68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46320040 46259856 45799544 45689527 45179369
44449288 43869327 43749360 43519477 43609623
44319834 45320019 45900106 46210108

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 07:26:48

AWUS01 KWNH 090726
FFGMPD
MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-091300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0983
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Iowa, eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090724Z - 091300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across western Iowa overnight with a slow advance eastward through
morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-3" of
rain with locally higher amounts. This may result in flash
flooding.

Discussion...During the past few hours, the regional radar mosaic
has shown a slow but steady expansion of thunderstorms across
western Iowa. This activity is blossoming along the eastern edge
of the intense 850mb LLJ centered over Nebraska (measured via VWPs
to above 50 kts). Veering winds between 850-700mb is helping to
transport the accompanying robust thermodynamics over Nebraska
eastward, and the resulting convergence on the edge of the +12C
700mb is leading to regenerating thunderstorms within the
associated WAA.

Hourly rainfall measured via MRMS has been generally 0.75 to 1.25
inches within the more intense cells. However, the coverage of
these higher rain rates has begun to expand, suggesting the flash
flood risk is increasing. As the core of the LLJ moves slowly
eastward, the accompanying veered flow should push MUCAPE to above
2000 J/kg coincident with a PW plume of 1.7 to 1.8 inches. This
will support expanding convection with rain rates peaking at
1-2"/hr as suggested by HREF and REFS probabilities reaching
20-30% for 1"/hr, despite the poor initialization of many of the
high-res CAMs this morning.

The persistent WAA should generally push the convection eastward
with time in response to the translation of warming mid-level
temperatures. However, this will promote at least a short duration
of backbuilding convection with storms developing upstream near
the Nebraska/Iowa border and then translating E/SE at 10-20 kts.
Where any repeating/backbuilding storms can occur, 2-3" of rain is
possible with locally higher amounts.

Soil moisture across the region is generally normal to slightly
below normal according to NASA SPoRT. However, recent 7-day
rainfall that has been as much as 400% of normal over southern
Iowa/northern Missouri has reduced 3-hr FFG to around 2 inches.
While any backbuilding of these intense rain rates could lead to
instances of flash flooding, the greatest risk appears to be over
southern Iowa, southeast Nebraska, and northern Missouri, where
antecedent conditions make the area a bit more vulnerable to
runoff and flash flooding impacts.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7IugpsI26kqmniRe3xoazHTaFD0rWW4-id1fNTH6IZeGbxwtPAMhRwnCE056XnoaCWlUNf-fVxLPHsMSCTgCNS9EDJE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...MPX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43689409 42569284 41219275 40269323 39899455
40059579 40489622 40979631 41729636 42269648
42409647 43689665

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 14:24:00

AWUS01 KWNH 091423
FFGMPD
WIZ000-091922-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0984
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1022 AM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...central into southeastern Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091422Z - 091922Z

Summary...A mature convective complex near Wisconsin Dells was
migrating southeastward while producing heavy rainfall. Flash
flood potential will increase once this complex reaches
urban/sensitive areas of southeastern Wisconsin over the next 2-4
hours (though 18Z/1p central).

Discussion...Areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates were noted with a
convective complex currently near the Wisconsin Dells/Portage
areas (per MRMS). The complex was migrating southeastward at a
decent pace (around 30 knots) but was exhibiting both
forward-propagation and local mergers, enhancing rain rates on a
localized basis. FFG thresholds in the immediate vicinity of the
complex were in the 2-2.5 inch/hr range, suggesting
isolated/localized flash flood potential in the short term.

Storms are moving east-southeastward along a warm front currently.
Their trajectory will result in heavy rainfall approaching more
urbanized areas of southeastern WI (Milwaukee and vicinity) over
the next 2-4 hours, and should the orientation/organization of the
complex remain during this timeframe, an increase in local flash
flood potential will exist. Downstream PW values of 1.5+ inches
and instability (around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE along/south of the warm
front) will continue to support heavy rainfall. Furthermore, FFG
thresholds decrease to around 1 inch/hr with southeastward extent,
which has potential for exceedance as the complex migrates through
the region. Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis -
particularly in low-lying/urban/sensitive areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7NEAW2tNbIpzQr9N9IxL8Z0vh-H-pxz561SHDiVzbyKC0mOoi-mEeBk3DVB70LtShTWNjl29oKNdwVrZHfkYSo0SVxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44168841 43928748 42868741 42508819 42718965
43419017 44158929

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 23, 2026 00:47:58

AWUS01 KWNH 230047
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-230515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...central PA into central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230042Z - 230515Z

SUMMARY...A threat of flash flooding will continue over the next
few hours from portions of central PA into central VA. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3
inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level water vapor and GLM imagery from 00Z showed
scattered thunderstorms from eastern OH/WV into PA and portions of
west-central VA, located out ahead of the base of an amplifying
upper trough advancing across the OH Valley, with a couple of
leading vorticity maxima at the leading edge. Radar imagery showed
a few slow moving and repeating cells over west-central PA and
north-central VA (Green, Madison and Culpeper counties) resulting
in a broken north-south axis of FLASH Unit Streamflow responses of
200 to 400+ cfs/sq mi and likely a few areas of flash flooding
embedded within. Many of these cells are about to be overtaken by
eastward propagating boundary from the west, located from near
Philipsburg, PA to Cumberland, MD to Waynesboro, VA, advancing
between 25-30 kt toward the east. However, the environment out
ahead of the advancing line contained 500 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
(highest to south) and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches via the 00Z LWX
sounding and the 00Z SPC mesoanalysis, resulting in localized
hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches.

As the mid to upper-level trough continues to advance east early
tonight, thunderstorms will follow suit with movement from west to
east over time. Decreasing instability with time for some
locations (especially northern and eastern PA) combined with
mostly progressive cells should limit the flash flood threat.
However, increasing instability over northeastern MD into
southeastern PA and the potential for convective development out
ahead of the main thunderstorm axis and/or alignment of cells with
the mean southwesterly steering flow may result in peak hourly
rainfall in excess of 2 inches. Total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected from central PA into central VA, but portions of the
northern Mid-Atlantic into eastern PA have received above average
rainfall over the past week (200 to 400+ percent of normal).
Therefore, locations with above average soil moisture, coupled
with any urban locations, will be at higher risk of flash flooding
should brief training setup through ~05Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!94Psq17KuIqjhoQNtSLrC3FCYxk2wUKBMWAiEAvo3EEiDUpaMUgvKZ-MJmDHxiJiNE3-8n1YOia3M5dCIYE_BThk43U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41867775 41867665 41397598 40857568 39927567
39137678 38227790 38357902 39667855 40297843
40987830 41657826

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 23, 2026 04:52:54

AWUS01 KWNH 230452
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-230900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania, southern/central New Jersey, and Delaware

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230450Z - 230900Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will continue -
especially as thunderstorms spread eastward toward populated areas
of the I-95 Urban Corridor through 09Z/5a eastern.

Discussion...A line of thunderstorms has persisted through much of
the night across much of the northern Mid-Atlantic and currently
extends from near Lancaster to near Frederick, and from near
Waldorf across the Chesapeake Bay to near Cambridge, MD. The
storms are being aided by ascent associated with a negative-tilt,
longwave trough extending from Lake Huron to West Virginia along
with instability from a very moist downstream airmass in place
across the Mid-Atlantic (characterized by 1.5+ inch PW and ~500
J/kg MLCAPE). While most convection was linear in character, a
few spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates exist in north-central Maryland,
while new shower/convective development has recently appears
across southern NJ and vicinity. This suggests a likelihood for
persistence of these convective bands with eastward extent toward Wilmington/Philadelphia and vicinity, posing a risk of urban flash
flooding beginning in the 06-07Z timeframe. Persistence of
convection northeastward from that point is in doubt, however, as weaker/negligible buoyancy exists from central NJ northward.
Isolated/spotty flash flood potential exists with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9VlsxbDoy-GkKgCwKniPjovFkORCyFeLhkXlbP_TOTbqVK_AKhG1tcXaxgrz5ZoYCHHNdU-CmPk7httOg6_ZnMbZxF4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40477461 39797430 38467503 37887572 39137660
39737701 40377562

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 23, 2026 06:05:26

AWUS01 KWNH 230605
FFGMPD
SDZ000-WYZ000-231003-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...southwestern South Dakota and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230603Z - 231003Z

Summary...A conditional risk of flash flooding exists with
scattered storms near the Rapid City area.

Discussion...Deep convection has materialized over the Black Hills
vicinity over the past couple hours - very near the WY/SD border
region. The storms are persistent despite larger-scale ridging
aloft, and are primarily tied to mid-level shortwave troughs
traversing the region, focused convergence on the nose of 20-25 kt
850mb flow across the High Plains, steep (7+ C/km) lapse rates
aloft, and 1.5 inch PW in the vicinity of the storms. While these
storms were fairly localized, spots of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates were
estimated per MRMS recently with the activity. Furthermore, the
meso- and synoptic-scale features forcing the convection (mainly
the 850mb convergence into the region) should change little over
the next 2-4 hours. These factors suggests a continued risk of
heavy rainfall from Newcastle WY to Rapid City and across the
Black Hills, with flash flooding becoming possible should rainfall
develop in locally sensitive areas through 10Z/5a central. FFG
thresholds are as low as 1-1.5 inch/hr in spots across the
discussion area, which should also be threatened at times beneath
the most persistent heavy rainfall axes.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5oUCizJMqLC6DpG1RmPDXcFsvatWpefS4Uh_kLu3volEeSZ0WI8QRZLCelcg3-9QUiQfBTC--g7hHeuEzoLqBGlCMlA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 44660340 44340196 43590160 43090231 43260464
44400487

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 23, 2026 08:09:38

AWUS01 KWNH 230809
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-231107-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and far
southern New York State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230807Z - 231107Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential continues.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a convective band
sweeping through southeastern PA into western NJ (including the
Philadelphia area). On the southwestern flank of this band,
enough training occurred for rain rates to peak into the 1-1.5
inch/hr range just southwest of Philadelphia, prompting at least
isolated impacts and local MRMS Flash responses. The downstream
airmass is marginally supportive of deep convective with
northeastward extent, though some concern remains the local
backbuilding could still occur through central NJ where 500-1000
J/kg MUCAPE exists per mesoanalyses. While a primarily urban
flash flood risk continues, the greatest chance of impacts will
exist from Philadelphia through Trenton and perhaps Newark through
10Z/6a eastern. It is worth noting that FFG thresholds drop
substantially in northeastern NJ, and rates as low as 0-0.25
inch/hr could cause impacts there.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6GuZ8ujHWI5wb3ho2lkd2Fw4WUu14MYJy8SNq_rynPPDpcAbPKhyOP1JqhxcU2WQDOkZPFRf4Rl3uWalC1Ivgo_hvEA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41617415 41467350 40747342 39697428 39157491
39577542 40947533 41337491

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 30, 2026 07:51:30

AWUS01 KWNH 300750
FFGMPD
NDZ000-MTZ000-301300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1149
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...northeastern MT into ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300748Z - 301300Z

SUMMARY...A few slow moving thunderstorms could produce localized
areas of flash flooding across portions of northeastern MT into a
sizable portion of ND through 13Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches could result in isolated storm total rainfall maxima
of/over 3 inches through 13Z, although these higher totals are
expected to remain isolated.

DISCUSSION...0730Z GOES East water vapor imagery showed
southwesterly flow aloft over the Dakotas with an embedded
shortwave near the central ND/SD border, just upstream of the
ridge axis located north/south over western MN. The shortwave
along the ND/SD border has been associated with scattered strong
to severe thunderstorms across northern SD while another impulse
on water vapor imagery was associated with weaker and scattered showers/thunderstorms near the northern MT/ND border in the
vicinity of a pair of outflow boundaries.

RAP and VAD wind data showed a well defined 850 mb low in
west-central SD, with a northwestward extending trough axis into
eastern MT and southwestern Saskatchewan. A zone of modest 850 mb confluence/convergence was in place over ND where MLCAPE was
estimated to be 1000 to 2000+ J/kg via 07Z SPC mesoanalysis data,
with little to no CIN extending from near Williston to Devils Lake
and as far south as I-90. An anomalous plume of moisture was also
over ND with PWs ranging from 1.2 inches across the northwestern
part of the state to 1.7 inches in the southeastern part.

Expectations are for lift tied to the impulse(s) on water vapor
imagery to combine with lower level ascent focused near 850 mb to
result in at least a modest increase in thunderstorm activity over
the next few hours across northwestern to east-central ND. There
remains some uncertainty in the coverage of storms however, given
poor model handling of this region of the U.S. so far and only
modest low level convergence in place. Should thunderstorms
develop and become more numerous overnight, high hourly rainfall
will be possible with slow moving cells given ND was located
within a weakness in the mean steering flow with 0-6 km mean layer
winds of only 5 to 15 kt. 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour
(locally higher) may develop, resulting in potential for isolated
rainfall maxima over 3 inches through 13Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7DNuz4HNpj71RWLS2nLhOVIutB2wDUW18o3qS6y-NeHhs7YExhVnCHhB-GVnjyQ6khvQv1fT6k5I8QIeFjy0Pv_aKxA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48970194 48780015 48179827 47399781 46709829
46559925 46630087 47020231 47550358 48010494
48850499

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 30, 2026 16:05:12

AWUS01 KWNH 301604
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-302000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1150
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...Northern Utah, Northwestern Colorado, & Southern
Wyoming

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301603Z - 302000Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms over Utah may cause localized
areas of flash flooding into early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION... A strong upper level shortwave trough centered
across Montana will provide the forcing needed to allow already
ongoing showers and storms across northwestern Colorado to break
the cap. Inflow into the right entrance region of a weak jet
streak will also provide additional lift into this afternoon.
Moisture values are over 1 inch across eastern Utah, which is 2
sigma above normal. Despite the abundant cloud cover, instability
is building, mostly over Utah, with values over 1,000 J/kg in some
areas. While instability hasn't yet built across Colorado, RAP
forecasts for the next few hours suggest instability will build to
over 1,500 J/kg into parts of northwestern Colorado over the next
few hours. Time will tell if the cloud cover present over that
area will allow this.

HRRR and a few other HiRes guidances suggest more widely scattered
storms form across this region over the next few hours, most
likely towards 20Z. Considering some of these areas have seen rain
for much of the morning, as well as much of this area seeing rain
over the past couple days, it appears probable that additional
flash flooding will occur from these storms into the early
afternoon.

This area will continue to be evaluated with a likely update for
this area this afternoon, depending on how well instability builds
and how plentiful storm coverage is near the end of this
discussion period.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8micVSHka-vHE54el-14DQ9ESarVxTyUb51sUiRZJMmzQH5k95NuOf-ZFW3NYmUYGHxd8_t4d80GlGqwtUvKdxuN-AE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GJT...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41620755 41400624 40680583 39870589 39590633
39250757 38850903 38731042 38521184 38271249
38211264 38081311 38921304 40171200 41201069
41530933

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 30, 2026 18:40:28

AWUS01 KWNH 301840
FFGMPD
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-310000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1151
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...Southern Utah...Northern Arizona...Southwest
Colorado...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301840Z - 310000Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms within strong but unidirectional
flow may support short-duration repeating but quick intense
rainfall bursts of .5-1" in less than an hour with localized
maximum totals of 1.25-1.5" possible to result in focused but
widely scattered incidents of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad long-wave trough across
the Pacific Northwest with leading stronger shortwave exiting
northern UT at the tail end of stronger jet streak, leaving much
of central UT into CO in divergent right entrance region for broad
scale ascent; while another 70kt speed max upstream over S CA into
S NV is providing left exit ascent and weak low level cyclogenesis
into SW UT with a sharpening mid-level shear axis across
south-central UT into W-central CO. Add a bit of broad scale
ascent from sub-tropical jet streak out of AZ/NM border through S
CO and overall dynamics are solid for any thunderstorm activity
that develops. While the strong dynamics will limit residency
time for any given storm given 30-40kts of SW to NE steering flow,
the effective bulk shear from 35 to 45kt and increasing 850-700mb
southwesterly flow 20-35kts may help to counteract by providing a
solid back-building upstream convergence regime for short-term
repeating of updrafts with some weak rotation/localized
isallobaric moisture flux for efficient rainfall production.

CIRA LPW shows moisture axis (especially above 700mb) is further
east across NE AZ into SW CO, but the Surface to 700mb moisture
distribution is solid supporting .75 to locally 1" total PWats
(though source in the lower AZ deserts is over 1.75", and trying
to become deep enough to filter into the San Francisco Plateau and
Grand Canyon Region. Given those lapse rates but solid insolation
today, MLCAPEs have been increasing to 1000-1250 J/kg perhaps
reaching 1500 J/kg over the next few hours. As such, those
updrafts should be strong, but perhaps a bit narrow initially.
Still, flux convergence should support rates up to 1.25"/hr though
as mentioned, residency will be the key but quick .5-.75" in 15-30
minutes in harder ground conditions would still result in quick
run-off/flash flooding. Overall coverage should be a bit less
than yesterday but locally saturated grounds would be once again
an issue to increase run-off and so widely scattered incidents of
flash flooding are once again considered possible this afternoon
through evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5myqBPJoroRvyNnquVuhweuSJIKcHHgJTlA7OpiY4zMc89CNzMYs2WkJjAs_wwGkAcApgg7rTXvdsNIccIi_uGgTClQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39550804 39300697 38190724 37020905 35431047
34851160 35541315 36581368 37381375 38001351
38621265 39261036

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 04:50:56

AWUS01 KWNH 270450
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-270915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0857
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...central IL into Lower OH Valley and western TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270449Z - 270915Z

SUMMARY...At least localized flash flooding will be likely across
portions of the Midwest from central IL into the lower OH Valley
and western TN through 09Z. Training of thunderstorms will allow
for 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour with isolated higher hourly
totals possible. Additional storm total rainfall through 09Z of 2
to 4+ inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery across southwestern IN into
portions of northern KY at 0430Z showed a compact cluster of
thunderstorms with some recent expansion in coverage. Training of
cells was coincident with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall just over 1
inch in a few locations in and around the western IN/KY border.
These cells were elevated on the cool side of an outflow
reinforced frontal boundary that draped from west-central IL into
western TN. 925-850 mb layer winds were from the WNW along the MS
River, veering to more of a NNW direction along the southern IL/IN
border. Overrunning of the relatively colder airmass and
directional low level convergence was supporting the convection
beneath diffluent flow aloft. The airmass across the Midwest was
strongly unstable with 2000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE and very moist with
PWs of about 2.0 to 2.4 inches via the 04Z SPC mesoanalysis.

While the persistence of convection across the region is a bit
uncertain due to poor hires model handling of the current
activity, the same larger scale forcing mechanisms will generally
remain in place over the next 3-5 hours. This should allow
training potential to linger for at least another few hours with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches at times (locally higher) due to
training of cells following the mean steering flow from NNW to
SSE. Some upstream convective development will be possible farther
north into central IL later tonight due to the presence of
uninhibited elevated instability and subtle upstream vorticity
maxima within the northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated
flash flooding appears likely with 3-hr flash flood guidance
values of 2 to 3 inches across a majority of central IL into Lower
OH Valley and western TN.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9kwV4GdtvbMQrrrGhqCsGAUXjr9njJAqi4IRTXPb1mlTF3GFOojOYDF1ql0Vnp8M8BgaVb3BjT-uETRlb9Vb2kqG5rU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LOT...LSX...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40478839 39478717 37828671 36598690 35988766
35968855 36558930 37638956 39968955

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 09:20:08

AWUS01 KWNH 270919
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-271335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0858
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...central IL into Lower OH Valley and northwestern
TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270916Z - 271335Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible from
central IL into and across the lower MS Valley into northwestern
TN through 13Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be likely at
times (at least early on) along with isolated potential for an
additional 2 to 4 inches (locally higher) of rain.

DISCUSSION...09Z radar imagery across the Midwest continued to
show thunderstorms with areas of training from southeastern Shelby
County, southward to just south of I-64 into Hamilton and White
counties. MRMS-derived and gauge verified peak hourly rainfall has
been 1 to just over 2 inches within this axis over the past 2-3
hours. Strong to extreme instability remained over the region with
09Z SPC mesoanalysis data showing 4000 to 5000+ J/kg MUCAPE over
central and southern IL with little to no inhibition. Moisture was
also high with estimated PW values of 1.8 to 2.2 inches according
to GPS and SPC mesoanalysis data. The area of storms was located
along an axis of elevated convergence in the 925-850 mb layer,
noted on shortwave infrared imagery as a broken line of colder
cloud tops extending NNW into central IL from the Little Wabash
River Valley, on the cool side of a combined
outflow/quasi-stationary front extending north to south across
west-central IL. Colder cloud tops advancing southward across the
OH River also showed a classic fanning out signature associated
with a diffluent flow pattern aloft.

Low level convergence in the 925-850 mb layer is forecast to
weaken over the next 3-6 hours according to the RAP, as the
approach of an upstream disturbance shifts the low level ridge
axis farther east this morning. Until then, expectations are for
continued regeneration of convection across portions of central
IL, with training from NNW to SSE supporting hourly rainfall of 1
to 2+ inches at times. Given uncertainty in the future duration of
training due to poor model handling of the ongoing thunderstorms
and some recent warming in cloud tops on infrared satellite
imagery, the flash flood threat beyond 12Z is uncertain.
Therefore, the "possible" tag was used with potential for an
additional 2 to 4+ inches on an isolated basis over the next 3-5
hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4QB1PRpa5mVwCQOG5MaiVxL_PqCwI4x-djmYGxaUZamAptU6UqkZxmcZQ2JdQsfknKN1Nnkv3fm7435hJDgLKvKqXks$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LSX...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40348882 39428802 38108763 36868732 36258768
36078853 37028950 38038971 39998962

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 10:05:44

AWUS01 KWNH 271005
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-271500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0859
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
604 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Upper MS Valley into WI and the western U.P. of
MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271003Z - 271500Z

SUMMARY...Increasing potential for at least brief periods of
training heavy rain will evolve over the next 3-5 hours across
portions of the Upper Midwest. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
and flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery across the Upper Midwest into
southwestern Ontario showed a broken axis of elevated
thunderstorms stretching from just north of the MN/CN border into
the west-central U.P. of MI and portions of eastern WI. The storms
were located along the northeastern edge of a large mid to
upper-level ridge over the western and central U.S., out ahead of
a shortwave impulse riding around the top of the ridge near the
ND/MN/MB junction. Cells over the southern Arrowhead region of MN
into northern WI have struggled to sustain themselves, perhaps
owing to too much low level convective inhibition. Despite the
recent struggles with sustaining convection over MN/WI, the region
was moist and unstable with 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data showing PWs
ov 1.5 to 1.7 inches and MUCAPE of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg, supportive
of heavy rain production.

There are indications in the short term RAP guidance and ALPW
trends that increasing low level moisture, advecting into WI out
ahead of the aforementioned shortwave and related surface front in
MN, will allow for decreasing CIN across WI through 15Z and
increased convective coverage. While this scenario is far from
certain, should convective coverage increase as forecast,
congealing and clustering of storms could allow for bowing/forward
propagating convective segments to develop and advance toward the
southeast. There will be some potential for short term training
along the western flank of these segments. Within any axes of
training, hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be possible along
with isolated flash flooding.

It should be noted that confidence in this forecast is lower than
average due to consistently poor model handling of current
activity from earlier runs of the HRRR, RRFS and 00Z HREF.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5CpachB_AiaEm_157GWsXVNBD5ISY6ZPd6bwoF0rkEab8vLd5jYvUedUzp-g6xkb7ogQdmWuZiRCfhBBgFSlqItM2PU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48089181 48049033 47728969 46708863 45908797
44248769 43278807 42938950 43429088 44389184
45349233 46189265 47459260

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 18:01:54

AWUS01 KWNH 091801
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-100000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0986
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the TN Valley and Southern
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091800Z - 100000Z

SUMMARY...Expanding areas of showers and thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates will pose a threat for localized flash flooding.
Some sensitive sloped terrain and the more urbanized locations
will be at greatest risk for impacts this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with LightningCast data shows convective initiation taking place
across central to northeast AL up through northern GA, eastern TN
and adjacent areas of the southern Appalachians.

The convection is developing in an unstable and moisture-rich
environment with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWs of
1.75 to 2.0 inches. This thermodynamic environment coupled with
modest orographic ascent over the Cumberland Plateau and adjacent
southern Appalachians will foster an uptick in the coverage of
rather slow-moving and locally terrain-anchored showers and
thunderstorms going through the afternoon hours. Some very weak
ascent also around the eastern flanks of vort energy over the
Mid-South may provide some additional support for convection, but
largely the convective threat today is being driven by orographic
ascent and differential heating boundaries. In time, some outflow
boundary collisions will favor additional convective development.

Rainfall rates with the stronger and more focused cells will be
capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. The latest consensus
of HREF and REFS data suggest some localized 3 to 4 inch rainfall
totals will be possible. This would likely be sufficient to drive
a localized threat for some flash flooding, including some of the
more sensitive sloped terrain and urban corridors where runoff
would be more enhanced.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4NZQ5kYtwgqq8dMuvNz0N2RXVfc6JeAcOH-c2kLY0gSIb5UGbAPei1CSS9jTHJpYVDns8ahF4fD3awiz6hI_we8WR5w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36888067 36658033 36018089 34998206 34228338
33128504 32968617 33358661 34368641 35158583
36208532 36678463 36378330 36478234 36878123

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 17:32:50

AWUS01 KWNH 091732
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-092030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0985
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
131 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Illinois, northwestern
Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091730Z - 092030Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible through 2030Z/3:30p
central.

Discussion...An earlier, mature MCS has migrated southeastward
primarily across WI and the border region between WI and IL over
the past several hours. Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts
more focused development on the southwestern flank of this mature
MCS extending from near Waukegan to near Rochelle. These storms
were progressive owing to 25 kt mean flow aloft, although 1.7 inch
PW and 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE was enabling local rain rates to reach 1
inch/hr as storms mature. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough
over central IL was also likely aiding in convective development
in tandem with southward surging outflow from far southern WI into
the discussion area.

The overall result of this evolving mesoscale pattern is localized
areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates that should affect populated/urban
areas of northeastern IL into northwestern IN over at least the
next 3 hours (through 2030Z). The combination of urban surfaces
and FFG thresholds near 1 inch/hr should support at least a
localized risk of flash flood impacts 1) as storms mature and 2)
near any local mergers that may occur.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4VSpA_p2Ff5VFtkwou4F7OdcXk6jwzBWep2xkBu15gqS6Vr_mwjuQEvXFfYG2CHkS5TtDPN8cRt3JZLoOO0Cd7zxg90$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42458819 42218739 41848680 41418662 41118692
41098803 41488910 41838910 42368876

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 18:32:00

AWUS01 KWNH 091831
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-100015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0987
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast GA...Northeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091829Z - 100015Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with locally extreme rainfall
rates may cause some areas of especially urban flash flooding this
afternoon and early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Cooling convective tops are seen across areas of
southeast GA and far northeast FL as sea breeze convergence
gradually attempts to push inland where interacting with a very
moist and unstable airmass. MLCAPE values have increased to over
3000 J/kg in a corridor just inland of the coast to the west of
Brunswick and down to the northwest of Jacksonville.

LightningCast data shows high probabilities (over 70 percent) of
CI taking place to the west and southwest of the current activity
over the next 60 minutes, and visible satellite images show an
increasingly agitated CU/TCU field more broadly across southeast
GA and northeast FL, so the overall convective footprint should
expand in coverage over the next few hours.

PWs are very high and reflective of a deeply tropical environment
with values around 2.25 inches, and this coupled with the
instability will favor extreme rainfall rates. Some rainfall rates
of 2 to 3 inches/hour are expected, and with weak steering
currents driving slow cell-motions, some spotty 3 to 5 inch
rainfall amounts will be possible.

This is supported by a consensus of the 12Z HREF/REFS solutions
which also show some 20 to 40 percent probabilities of seeing the
3-hour FFG being exceeded. As a result, some areas of mainly urban
flash flooding will be possible over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7ILHxJGeWDCzkBnl4ve3TyIfbdRP0R4jzOrk32T4tog6bk5K1heO4lcSkwkdBN8lHFjVZCxWY1dUmPxcxJSO1h08Mxw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32218158 31948097 31248108 30668128 29888134
29768217 30198298 30618330 31108336 31548314
32038240

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 20:40:14

AWUS01 KWNH 092039
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-100235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0988
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
438 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Northern IL...Northern IN...Southern Lower
MI...Northwest OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092038Z - 100235Z

SUMMARY...A strong MCS advancing across portions of the Midwest
will continue to foster a threat for at least isolated areas of
flash flooding going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows a generally progressive MCS advancing across portions
of far northeast IL through far northwest IN and into southwest
Lower MI. This convective line is generally focused in close
proximity to a warm front attempting to lift off to the northeast
out ahead of a shortwave trough and associated low center crossing
through northern IL.

Very unstable and moist air is situated across the warm sector to
the south of this front with MLCAPE values of 3000 to 3500 J/kg
pooled up across north-central IL through northwest IN. Surface
dewpoints in the mid 70s are contributing to these high CAPE
values, and fostering PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches.

Given the elevated shear values (~30 to 40 kts) in conjunction
with strong thermodynamics, the ongoing MCS is likely to be
sustainable with a motion off to the east or east-southeast over
the next few hours. Convergence along the warm front along with
isentropic ascent will play a role in maintaining the convective
threat as the MCS moves across northern IN, southern Lower MI and
eventually northwest OH.

The southwest tail of the MCS is an area where some cell-training
concerns may occur to the extent of fostering some flash flood
risk. Also, with a cold pool established across parts of northern
IL in the wake of this MCS, the upstream advance of very
moist/unstable low-level southwest flow over top of it may result
in there being some regeneration of elevated convection. Radar and
satellite imagery is already hinting at some of this.

Considerable uncertainty exists this evening with the convective
threat over northern IL and northern IN as there may be an
opportunity for regenerating rounds of convection, but at least
for the near-term, some rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour will
be possible with the main MCS, with some spotty 2 to 3+ inch
amounts where any cell-training sets up.

At least isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through
early this evening, with most of the threat confined to the more
sensitive urban areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5AHtXxzym7S8NI_athLYKrRd25g_n3qnA9pDIQSjHWeMXGju1WVeise6CXOyfpZYYYtlYyZ71EAIum8rTJ2lE0lgefw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...
LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42568919 42328801 42248719 42218625 42448536
42398422 42058330 41358293 40778325 40468446
40518620 40658777 41048916 41689008 42419030

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 21:59:26

AWUS01 KWNH 092159
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0990
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
557 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092157Z - 100330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening across portions of the Mid-South which will maintain a
concern for additional pockets of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of relatively slow-moving showers
and thunderstorms are seen impacting areas of central to northwest
AL and also adjacent areas of northeast MS and middle TN.

There are still areas of northern AL and parts of middle TN that
have a substantial pool of boundary layer instability in place
with MLCAPE values of around 2500 J/kg. Meanwhile, outflow
boundaries are seen slowly advancing out from the existing areas
of convection across the region.

Over the next few hours, some outflow boundary collisions are
expected which will drive a threat for expanding and regenerating
clusters of convection over the region. Northern AL in particular
appears to be at risk for seeing the best potential for this based
on the latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery trends.

Given the instability and high PW environment, with PWs of 2.0 to
2.2 inches, the rainfall rate potential will be very high and
capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour. Slow cell-motions and
potential for a few cell-mergers may allow for some spotty 3 to 4
inch rainfall amounts going through this evening.

Already there have been a couple of flash flood warnings that have
come out across central and northwest AL, and some additional
flash flooding concerns will exist going into the evening hours as
the convective threat continues.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!95y6SJ4NF_1U1AOl_wju3-skkGyQRyLShg91b78Zz1Qi0_-i19Zu2geTl5fur8t74cBmjv3TZ5SlRlwFeoOZIjHpiM8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35638690 35618629 35378566 34778551 34168589
33288675 32908765 32978853 33408879 34308822
35238781

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 21:34:16

AWUS01 KWNH 092134
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-100330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0989
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
532 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092132Z - 100330Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will tend
to increase a bit further in coverage this evening. Isolated areas
of flash flooding will be possible with locally heavy rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2+ inches.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite along with the
GREMLIN product shows scattered areas of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms tending to further increase in coverage across areas
of west-central NM into eastern AZ, with additional areas of focus
noted up across some of the higher terrain of northwest AZ (near
the Mogollon Rim), southeast NV, and southwest to south-central UT.

Strong diurnal heating has led to SBCAPE values of as much as 1000
to 2000 J/kg across sizable areas of central and southern AZ with
nose of this extending up into northwest AZ and southwest UT. This
corridor of greater instability will tend to be where some of the
better convective focus will be over the next several hours in
conjunction with orographic ascent and differential heating
boundaries.

Some convection over the Mogollon Rim is expected to advance
westward off the terrain and out into this more unstable airmass
that is pooling across the region, and some of the hires models
suggest areas of central AZ may see some of the heaviest rainfall
potential this evening. PW anomalies of 1 to 1.5 standard
deviations above normal area noted across some of these areas with
the fetch of better low to mid-level monsoonal moisture seen
lifting north around the west side of the subtropical ridge over
the Southwest.

A highly isolated threat for flash flooding will exist into the
evening hours from the thunderstorms which will have the potential
to drop 1 inch of rain in as little as 30 minutes. Generally the
totals will be 1 to 2 inches, with a couple of spotty 2+ inch
amounts possible where the stronger storms focus. This may result
in some arroyo flash flooding, and some of the regional burn scar
locations and sensitive slot canyon locations may also potentially
see impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6R8MqZMI--W_-0M7BoRUzTavHXbL9lAUaexgGYf6sm4LXxuLo4Jdg0KyjV-U-XjklCwBJtrREwQFlWWfO90DE8TZGkw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PSR...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39171180 38951097 38251053 36181106 35131087
34671034 34320941 34220843 33930777 33680764
33180769 32460871 31610942 31301013 31341152
31841289 32581332 33671350 34631399 35321467
36141570 36981596 37811545 38661409 39091249

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 02:33:48

AWUS01 KWNH 100233
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-100700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0991
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1032 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Northern Illinois, far Southwest Michigan,
Northern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100231Z - 100700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this evening
and then expand while training to the east-southeast. Rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-4+" of rainfall in the
next few hours. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows new
thunderstorm development occurring across far NW Illinois. This
activity is blossoming downstream of a modest shortwave rippling
southeast within broadly cyclonic mid-level flow. This is
producing subtle backing of the low-level wind field to
isentropically ascend a stationary front analyzed by WPC draped
west-to-east from Iowa into Ohio. 850mb winds have increased to
20-30 kts as measured via regional VWPs, helping to transport
impressive thermodynamics northward due to PWs approaching 2" and
MLCAPE of 4000 J/kg pooling along the front. This is supporting
hourly rainfall that has already exceeded 1" according to MRMS
within this new activity.

The ingredients are extremely supportive for heavy rainfall into
tonight, but the CAMs are struggling to identify a focus for the
footprint. As the shortwave drops steadily E/SE it will help to
accelerate the inflow to produce even more intense thermodynamic
advection northward. Locally enhanced ascent downstream of this
shortwave should interact broadly with the front to create strong
lift to regenerate convection. The mean 0-6km winds aligned
parallel to the front indicate a high potential for
backbuilding/training, with a southeast motion eventually
developing as Corfidi vectors become aligned NW to SE to dive into
the moisture in reponse to the veering LLJ. The last two runs of
the HRRR have finally started to exhibit a reasonable QPF
footprint, getting closer to the ARW/CONEST/RRFS which, while not
perfect, appear to match better the conceptual model for tonight's
evolution. This is concerning because several of the deterministic
models suggest locally 5-6" of rain in the next 6 hours, and
although confidence in these amounts by 08Z are limited, it does
outline the higher-end potential for the area tonight.

Parts of this area, generally along and north of I-90, have
received 1-3" of rain already today, priming the soils ahead of
the event tonight. 3-hr FFG is generally 2 inches across the
region, but locally is as low as 1-1.5", for which the HREF and
REFS both indicate a 20-30% chance of exceedance, and this is
despite significant spread in the individual ensemble members.
Still, this is enough support to suggest at least possible flash
flooding the next few hours. However, as this event unfolds,
additional MPDs will likely be needed to capture the evolving, and
potentially increasing, flash flood risk overnight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!77rguL3N0y6NjR4V8ywosbfi4E2aVKKEYtVzgzUuwj1nEI2CXclhqr0Q_KvjSTe0Rxweb0F28SfV9n8DRKzCipSQJCo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42408838 42198620 41838521 41378456 41008441
40528473 40158558 39968688 40078820 41019012
42399059

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 03:34:54

AWUS01 KWNH 100334
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-100800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0992
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1133 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100330Z - 100800Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to progress
westward across southern Arizona the next few hours. Hourly
rainfall of 0.75 to 1.25 inches is possible, leading to isolated
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...GOES-E IR satellite imagery this evening indicates
that cloud tops are continuing to rapidly cool across southern
Arizona. This cloud top cooling is associated with deepening
thunderstorms moving steadily east to west across the region. At
500mb, a shortwave trough is noted pushing west beneath the
monsoon ridge, driving locally enhanced forcing for ascent. This
lift, combined with surface convergence along boundary collisions
and storm mergers from the ongoing convection is producing renewed
thunderstorm activity thanks to impressive thermodynamics
characterized by PWs as high as 1.6 inches and MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/kg.

Recent MRMS hourly rainfall has been above 1 inch in a few of the
deeper convective cores, and despite limited signal in the HREF
neighborhood probabilities (just 5-15%), the ingredients suggest
these rates can continue for a few more hours. This is supported,
at least, by recent UA WRF and sub-hourly HRRR guidance as well.
As the shortwave pushes steadily to the west, it will impinge upon thermodynamics that may additionally improve due to persistent
inflow off the Gulf of California. The overlap of the approaching
shortwave with an even more moist column suggests rainfall rates
of 0.75-1.25"/hr are likely. Limiting the total rain from this
convection is the speed at which these storms should move, as
propagation vectors are to the west at 20-25 kts, but any
collisions or redevelopment immediately downstream of the
mid-level wave could cause locally slower storm motions, or
repeating events. Where this occurs, 1-2" of rain is possible in
isolated locations.

In general, the modest storm coverage combined with steady storm
motions should preclude widespread flash flooding tonight.
However, any of these intense rain rates that move over vulnerable
terrain features like dry washes or burn scars, could lead to
flash flooding impacts before activity wanes later tonight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_GIeXgc9DWEhdk3silp_9Dm-RcP_GGwaOEiFCYf5pHd8EVfehAbocjQeSMprYtJ_4yQuZak5ItYt3Wpj6BLaxfKzKDA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33881303 33541207 32961106 32811080 32090998
31731017 31461103 31371180 31781312 32391484
33411461 33861410

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 06:14:46

AWUS01 KWNH 100614
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-101130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0993
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas, Northern Missouri, Far Southern
Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100612Z - 101130Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms moving along a stationary
front will bring 1-2"/hr rain rates through the overnight. Total
rainfall of 2-3" with locally higher amounts may cause flash
flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows clusters of
thunderstorms expanding near the intersection of Nebraska, Kansas,
and Missouri. This activity is building along a stationary front
analyzed by WPC, into which a strengthening LLJ of 40-50 kts
measured via regional VWPs is supplying impressive moisture and
instability to sustain convection. Recent GPS measurements
indicate PWs have climbed to 1.4 to 1.7 inches, collocated with
pooled MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in the vicinity of the boundary. A
modest shortwave tracking east from Nebraska has helped develop a
wave of low pressure along this boundary, with these coupled
features driving additionally enhanced ascent to support
thunderstorms.

The high-res CAMs are struggling with this activity tonight. There
is very little support from any of the CAMs to suggest the ongoing
activity will continue (as most do not have the current
development at all). This creates lower than typical confidence in
the forecast. However, with the LLJ progged to continue to surge
to the NE at 40-50 kts until diurnal veering, convection should be
sustained for many hours. Thunderstorms which develop along the
convergent nose of this LLJ should generally organize into
clusters on 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear, with cells
generally tracking to the south as reflected by Corfidi vectors.
However, with redevelopment upstream likely, and mean 0-6km winds
pointing to the east, this suggests the potential for repeating
rounds of convection, through which 1-2"/hr rain rates could cause
2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts.

This area has received impressive rainfall the past 7 days,
reflected by AHPS showing 300-400% of normal rainfall. This has
lowered the 1-hr (3-hr) FFG to just 1.5 (2.5) inches, indicating
the area is vulnerable to these intense rain rates. Despite
minimal model support, the ingredients suggest the environment is
supportive of rainfall exceeding this FFG, leading to isolated
instances of flash flooding into the early morning hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7VyQgUTyI34wD7UhuWhuWksjpJ2JYxiP5vEV77NbGJZzZj28VobDY46QJInMoqSrdAiJCXUjrQjCYtsQvlKS19DvlHQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40789422 40629275 39889185 39019164 38609205
38299295 38349373 38479460 38869544 39429598
40209618 40679544

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 06:54:50

AWUS01 KWNH 100654
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-101230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0994
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100651Z - 101230Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with hourly rainfall as high as 2.5" will
continue to spread across the lower Great Lakes into the early
morning. Where any repeating/training can occur, total rainfall of
3-5" is possible. This may result in additional flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery early this morning shows an
impressive MCS with a large area of -50C or colder cloud tops
moving over northeast Illinois and into Indiana/Michigan. Embedded
even colder cloud tops are indicative of still deepening
convection, which is additionally reflected by the regional radar
mosaic featuring many clusters of thunderstorms moving across the
area.

This activity is building within an area of strong overlapping
deep layer ascent caused via a mid-level shortwave moving atop a
stationary front and isentropic upglide on a 30-40kt 850mb LLJ.
This LLJ is gradually strengthening as noted via regional VWPs,
and is transporting robust thermodynamics (PWs above 2" and MUCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg) northeastward. The deep layer lift impinging
into these thermodynamics will continue to fuel convective
development, and recent MRMS hourly rainfall has already exceeded
2 inches in the strongest cores.

There is high confidence that thunderstorms will continue into the
morning, although the footprint of heaviest rainfall continues to
be somewhat uncertain. The high-res CAMs are all in agreement that
stripes of heavy rainfall will occur both just north of the front
where an MCV tracking across Lake Michigan will locally accelerate
inflow to enhance the isentropic upglide, as well from northeast
Illinois into northwest Indiana where the most impressive moisture
flux occurs on the LLJ convergence. With rainfall rates climbing
above 2"/hr within the deeper convection, any repeating cells or
training of heavy rain could create 3-5" of rain with locally
higher amounts (5-10% chance for more than 5 inches according to
both HREF and REFS).

There is a slightly higher risk of the heaviest rain occurring
across IL/IN than in lower MI due to a higher training potential,
but much of this region is already vulnerable from recent heavy
rainfall and compromised FFG. While there continues to be some
uncertainty as to whether the additional heavy rain can
efficiently overlap recent rain footprints (and accompanying
reduced FFG) anywhere these intense rain rates can train or
repeat, a flash flood risk will exist.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9yu8_EXu4Xev9kiDBcoAiz8XUu3zzG-G_e5CtRjgaoStnMACvh9e5rCxJBHzFmHyWUu3UiAVHNVBhTu27ljygE2L0aM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43388619 43288462 42328374 41248414 40558499
40388538 40188600 40338745 40728868 41338920
42388859 43078784

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 15:37:38

AWUS01 KWNH 101537
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-102000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0995
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1136 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Western PA...Much of Western & Northern
WV...Southern Half of OH...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101535Z - 102000Z

SUMMARY...Efficient but fast moving convection into western slopes
of Appalachians possible to exceed hourly FFG (1-1.5"/hr), while
flanking line likely to see redevelopment that may repeat across
areas of slightly higher FFG, but with localized totals of 3-4"
possible, flash flooding becomes possible here as well.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible imagery shows a
mature but compact MCS across NE PA nearing SW NY with a broad
northwesterly flow around the SW quadrant is is providing strong
moisture convergence through the Upper Ohio River Valley.
Enhanced moisture has streamed ahead of the wave through the
Valley bringing upper 60s to low 70s Tds even into the higher
western slopes/ridges and with some early morning sun, temps are
nearing low 80s and supporting SBCAPEs of 2000-2500+ J/kg. The
deep layer moisture pooled through the valley is also above normal
with total through depth around 1.75" though with most in the
lowest levels where convergence is maximized; loading is
supporting efficient rainfall production. Upstream observations
note .75-1.25" totals in 30 to 60 minutes and with continued
cooling trends/overshooting tops with broadening reflectivity,
expect similar 1-1.5" in the 30-60 minute time period across W PA
and western WV over the next hour or so. FFG values in the area
are 1-1.5" with 3hr FFG less than 2", suggesting the rates in
steep terrain may result in scattered incidents of flash flooding.

Upstream across SW, central and southern Ohio; there is a strong
cluster with elongated orientation to the mean flow from Licking
to Logan county, currently... this will start to intersect with
the south-end convection of the main convergence line over
Licking/Perry county, which could induce localized issues, though
FFG is naturally slightly higher across the area closer to
2"+/3hrs... which is about where observations plus hourly totals
will near but maybe not exceed initially. However, VWP through
the region shows highly confluent flow through depth along the
upwind flanking end; combine this with the area starting to move
into a broadening 500-1000mb thickness trough, supports
propagation vectors to reduce to less than 5kts with some
convergence along the upwind edge in SW OH. So with increasingly
unstable air upstream across IND and N KY with southwesterly
inflow orthogonal to the training line (near surface) but veering
confluent inflow aloft is highly suggestive of favorable
backbuilding and then NW to SSE (note turning) training
convection. Total PWats are slightly higher and instability will
further build into the 3000 J/kg increasing vertical strength/low
level moisture flux convergence into the updrafts with rates
increasing to near/locally above 2"/hr. Ideal training will
result in 3-4" totals which would even exceed 3 & 6 hr FFG.

However, there is high uncertainty within the evolution of this
cluster and then new additional development later this morning
into the afternoon. Some suggest the storms would not even exist
now; and therefore would further delay development (due to
capping) and new cells would develop further north and east
(HRRR/FV3/RRFS). Others suggest strong inflow orthogonal to the
outflow boundary and stronger cold pools will propagate the line
further southwest perhaps into SE IND/N KY (ARW2/NamNest). At
this time, the most conservative, middle ground solution is the
12z ARW which also has flaws compared to current RADAR/Satellite
trends but also appears more reasonable than the most aggressive
solutions though the overall line appears to be weakening relative
to the ARW solutions too.

Bottom line, there is solid potential but confidence is low for
the upstream area for prolonged training and may need to update
the MPD as trends unfold and confidence increases; however, the
rainfall efficiency/short-term rates have much higher confidence
for localized flash flooding issues across the western slopes of
the Appalachians in the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_I8sE_xMOAPdhTP1MdMSmuTcspb2uxyDrFsS12anmS3ZR8-XFFcFFEtxgbO5gP7c9hEIU6ADlX7FcIUX_W_2BmO7QQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41077989 41077920 40567874 39847921 39007980
38448052 38178159 38288252 38768366 39308436
39898470 40388459 40568404 40478343 40198275
39978172 40388095 40788036

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 23, 2026 23:34:50

AWUS01 KWNH 232334
FFGMPD
AZZ000-240515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1118
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...south-central to southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232333Z - 240515Z

Summary...Flash flooding will be possible across portions of
southern AZ through 05Z with at least isolated coverage. High
sub-hourly rain rates, locally exceeding 1 inch in 15 minutes, are
expected to lead to 1 to 2 inch totals (locally higher possible).

Discussion...Satellite and radar imagery showed a few ongoing
thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southeastern AZ as of
23Z with a general movement toward the west, though some cell
motions were slower than others. Additional attempts at convective
development were also noted over southern Maricopa/Pinal counties
in visible imagery while outflow was propagating southward off of
the Mogollon Rim across northern Maricopa County. The recent
increase in cell coverage has begun to form a couple of outflow
generated cold pools over southeastern AZ, with the potential
early stages of congealing occurring. Blended TPW imagery has
shown increasing moisture from the Gulf of CA into portions of
south-central and southwestern AZ since 12Z with values of 1.1 to
1.7 inches as of 22Z, helping contribute to MLCAPE of 500 to 2000
J/kg (highest over southwestern AZ as seen on the 23Z SPC
mesoanalysis).

Given the center of the mid to upper-level ridge was over
southeastern NM, an increased southerly trajectory to the low to
mid-level flow was seen into southern AZ. Expectations are for
continued convective development over the next couple of hours
over southeastern AZ (and possibly out ahead over south-central AZ
near/ahead of outflow), with movement around the ridge toward the
west and northwest. There is some uncertainty regarding convective
development over parts of southwestern AZ given increasing values
of convective inhibition with western extent as noted on SPC
mesoanalyses (Yuma County) but lift associated with outflow
propagation should be enough to overcome weaker values of
inhibition farther east (Pima and southern portions of Maricopa
and Pinal counties) if organization continues to increase. Should
at least a weakly organized convective cluster form, system
propagation should limit the duration of rainfall over any given
location. However, the environment will be supportive of high
sub-hourly rain rates similar to what has already been observed in
northern Santa Cruz County just after 22Z (1.38 inches in 15
minutes). 0.5 to 1.0+ inches in 15 minutes will be possible with
an evolution toward the west and northwest with time through 05Z,
possibly resulting in flash flooding of low water crossings,
normally dry washes and low lying areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4FS8gYfviQGleNwgzRp9yPLE5vAxmSt9WhyieOOd7DgbhXJEeC-PshiEX4tQME1u-xNETUo69hB9K3O22el0LZ-93pA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33791258 33641153 32471025 31700998 31201023
31561222 32091343 32761371 33151371 33671330

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 24, 2026 08:20:42

AWUS01 KWNH 240820
FFGMPD
NDZ000-241218-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1119
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern/northeastern North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240818Z - 241218Z

Summary...Spotty/isolated flash flood risk will continue across
the discussion area for the next 3-4 hours (through 12Z/7a central.

Discussion...A band of deep convection was moving very slowly
eastward at around 10-15 knots per radar mosaic imagery. The band
was collocated with strong low-level convergence on the nose of a
~30 kt low-level jet across central ND, with convection rooted in
the mid-levels where ~6.5 C/km lapse rates exist. The airmass is
also characterized by 1.5+ inch PW values that were combining with
slow storm motions to foster areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates (near
Rugby and near the international border at the intersection of ND
14 and ND 5). While these rates were impressive (and approaching
2.5 inch FFG thresholds in spots), antecedent dry conditions and
low soil moistures (per NASA Sport) were likely limiting the
extent of flash flood potential across the region.

These trends are expected to continue for the next 3-4 hours or
so. SPC Mesoanalysis depict that the low-level convergence
supporting ongoing convection will slacken gradually this morning
as flow weakens to around 15 knots or so. Downstream instability
values are weaker too (~6 C/km lapse rates, negligible
surface-based instability), also supporting eventual weakening.
The ongoing flash flood threat should remain isolated through
12Z/7a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5j0ffAqsg4FqV5sq5aHvrVGNet65WL-si8yXdc7NmPPYmKDj4-Ygin2VbiuU2lfFSigkU19dGWD1u3CRzp_CazBbD-s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49050049 48949934 48909822 48219786 47479802
47729990 48240082

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 24, 2026 11:01:58

AWUS01 KWNH 241101
FFGMPD
MSZ000-ARZ000-241700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1120
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241059Z - 241700Z

Summary...Flash flooding is possible this morning across portions
of central Arkansas as repeating showers and thunderstorms move
through. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches in a short duration may
cause isolated instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms this morning continue to
blossom over portions of Arkansas, moving from the northwest to
southeast on the periphery of the upper ridge that is centered
over central Texas. This activity is being fueled by the lingering
nocturnal low level jet and is positioned within an axis of
relatively higher moisture, characterized by PWs around 1.5-1.75
inches.

Over the next several hours, this activity should progress
southeast. However, upstream additional convection is forming and
will likely track over the similar area. The most recent runs of
the HRRR and other hi-res guidance is in reasonable agreement with
the placement of the heaviest rainfall axis positioned in a stripe
from northern to southeast Arkansas, indicating 1-2 inches likely
with some embedded cores of 2-3 inches through about 17Z today.
Rainfall rates with the strongest cores could approach 2"/hr.

Despite the drier soils, the intense rain rates combined with the repeating/training nature of the activity suggests at least a
lower end threat of flash flooding for the more vulnerable
locations. After about 17Z, convection should begin to wane and
also move out of the area.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5UWeQ6xI1XpgUEcjcOshzWBpcB4_qZ1LSBGCqGtoZasiN0EpNlwU0OXGtgCo952xvY599I6mE-t1Bui4dWk6X8X87MM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36489251 36149183 35769151 35079109 34669082
34039059 33529063 33269125 34159242 34959289
35529317 36229341

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 24, 2026 17:28:14

AWUS01 KWNH 241727
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-242326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1121
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241726Z - 242326Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon across the central Gulf Coast will pose a flash flood
risk due to intense rain rates. Localized 2 to 4 inch totals in a
short duration are possible.

Discussion...The early morning complex of thunderstorms that
developed over Arkansas earlier has moved south/southeast today
and as of early this afternoon is now approaching southeast
Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Interacting with a surface
front draped across the area and heading into an increasingly warm
and unstable environment, this activity should begin to uptick and
intensify with peak heating over the next few hours. The
environment along and ahead of the front has ample instability,
with the latest mesoanalysis showing upwards of 2500-3500 J/kg
MUCAPE in place. It's also very moist, with PWs close to 2 inches.

The expectation is that this activity should increase in coverage
and intensity as it approaches the outlook area. While activity
should steadily move, some isolated cells developing ahead of the
main complex would be slower moving and capable of producing rain
rates 2-3"/hr. Isolated totals of 2-4" are possible, and most of
this could fall in a short period.

Given the short duration of the intense rain rates, isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding is possible over the
next several hours.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6j50KGxhYOrl8w2VCb4-iG6PYngYsn1yjogWaRWmFQX6FcA7goeM-nDeOKMDg2Jx9UkFq9TXI1BItd7mNp6bNMGjIIk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31889055 31708879 31838683 30338671 30138862
30178921 29688962 29468991 29569040 30049116
30469152 30939167 31589161

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 24, 2026 18:35:50

AWUS01 KWNH 241835
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-250030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1122
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Southwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241834Z - 250030Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal moisture being drawn northeastward ahead of a
deep longwave trough is likely to cause widely scattered instances
of flash flooding across portions of the Southwest this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered flash flooding is expected across
portions of the Southwest, from the Peninsular Ranges of southern
California north and east through much of northern Arizona and
southern Utah. SPC Mesoanalysis shows moisture amounts from 1.8
inch PWATs in the southeast corner of California north up the
Colorado River Basin to around 1 inch in Las Vegas. These moisture
amounts are about 2 sigma above normal in southern California to
around 1 sigma above normal in Arizona and Utah. While not
impressive amounts of moisture, when combined with the numerous
terrain impacts, largely unidirectional flow (which supports
uplift on the south and west facing sides of the mountains), and
surface heating, expect scattered to convection to blossom once
again across this region today. Lightning has been observed with a
few storms across Arizona and Utah, indicating the potential for
heavy rain from those same storms.

HRRR and RRFS guidance suggest coverage of storms later this
afternoon will be scattered to potentially numerous in the
Peninsular Ranges of southern California, as well as in northern
Arizona with the vort max. The vort max in Arizona has already
been producing some convection, but as the stratiform rain coverts
to convection and the total coverage of clouds diminishes, expect
any resultant convection to have the potential to produce flash
flooding. Across Utah, any storms are likely to impact
flood-sensitive areas, including slot canyons. Potential for
impacts will be high, especially should any convection impact the
national parks.

Convection should wane in most areas by the end of this discussion
period, but it may persist into Utah a bit longer.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6So4VtawcPj8OUB-_6u2dQwMQMNO-k92xih-YYcy_fkbGfOl1cnzrDneGCETEBIFum3Db5Ay-xL3gnSSiFt1NyVsJJY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SGX...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39001173 38311106 37021019 35890935 34691003
34271131 34031378 33771476 33401558 32821586
32271597 32501651 32611647 33061672 33821680
34501681 35531641 36781562 37811470 38731297

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 24, 2026 19:42:26

AWUS01 KWNH 241942
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-250130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1123
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Utah and Western Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241941Z - 250130Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over Utah and
Colorado will likely cause terrain-driven flash flooding through
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed along
many of the mountain ranges from eastern Utah through western
Colorado this afternoon. Some of these storms have formed in
flood-sensitive areas, including burn scars, slot canyons, and
steep flood basins among the numerous terrain features of this
area. Thus, as on previous days, it should not take much storm
formation, given their slow movement, to result in flash flooding.

MUCAPE values in this area are generally between 500 and 1,000
J/kg. While very low in many areas east of the Continental Divide,
here given the favorable hydrology, this should be sufficient
instability to allow at least pop-up storms to continue on the
terrain. Swift WSW flow in the upper levels, to the tune of 35-50
kts, should keep the storms that form well-ventilated. PWATs
around 0.75 inches will also support the storms at times doing a
chain-reaction along the north-south aligned ranges this afternoon
and favoring a slow eastward movement/building for any east-west
ranges. This is due to the prevailing westerly wind regime to the
north of the large ridge near the NM/TX border.

Hi-Res guidance supports the widely scattered nature of the
convection, where any convection forms along the terrain, but
clusters of storms riding the initial storms' cold pools can allow
for some east to northeast building of those clusters through the
afternoon. By evening, with the loss of daytime heating, storm
coverage and intensity should wane.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-k3_y6Ouo0cdj9eiKpVxAiEAjFP9kXA3uRO5kW5CoviJt50nvdIuFBACn6gYEuateDngIOkWsd1bk5jYUFCUjZuxobo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...PUB...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41470989 41310900 40470745 39970617 39990594
39880537 39810512 39600504 39410510 38840531
38600538 38330545 38080517 37830487 37340460
36760446 35940493 36470552 36520618 37100700
37230749 37390807 37520833 37790875 37770952
37690993 37811064 38861136 39071201 39121211
39161214 39631180 40361119 41061081

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 18:32:06

AWUS01 KWNH 271831
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-272330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0862
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Southern Delmarva...Eastern Virginia...Eastern
North Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271830Z - 272330Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/retrograding efficient rainfall producing
cells with 2"/hr rates allow for localized 2-3.5" totals in
short-duration. Recent heavy rains have saturated soils and so
run-off could be higher than normal. Localized FF is possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a narrow larger scale trough
entrenched over the Eastern U.S. Seaboard, but upstream shortwave
energy is digging with a 90kt jet trying to descend south of the
tough resulting in increased sharpening of the trough with a
slight retrograde noted. As the streak drops south the rapid
cyclonic curvature allows for very sharp but divergent pattern
from southern NJ through the northern Outer Banks of NC; However,
with solid upstream 15-20kts of low level flow converging on the
core of remaining moisture axis (1.5-1.8" TPW) that lays in the
mid to upper-level trough axis.

Solid insolation allowed for increased temperatures and
conditionally unstable air with 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across
the Chesapeake Bay to the Coastal Plain of North Carolina. That
upstream cyclonic convergence, opposed by developing sea-breeze
resulted in broad area of solid development in SE VA into NE NC
but more scattered further north in the line through the southern
Delmarva Peninsula. Given proximity to the trof, steering flow is
very weak and propagation is actually slightly west (and south
from the Albemarle sound and southward). Given this increased
residency of heavy rainfall capable of 1.75-2"/hr has potential
for localized 2-3.5" totals in 2-3 hours.

Most of the region has been recently wet with soil saturation
ratios still well above normal (near 90th percentile in SE VA/NE
NC), so while the FFG values have rebounded to normal given
sandier ground conditions; the higher saturation may limit
infiltration especially at the higher rates that localized rapid
inundation flooding remains possible. through the afternoon into
evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8IYBawHFiSgwnz_tK4Zyf6QJQUP2j7i9DoLccn3Czl_zwZItLmQSGwa-FRPAOzr48BKrpBOLUSEt0q_JNiMniu0kSuk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...LWX...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38437551 38287503 36807574 35397544 34627640
33897773 34317825 35617741 36237703 36927675
37427665 37857651 38077630 38417602

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 17:48:30

AWUS01 KWNH 271748
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-272345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0860
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Mountains of Colorado and North-central New
Mexico and Adj. Eastern Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271745Z - 272345Z

SUMMARY...Enhanced moisture across the Colorado Rockies and
favorable upper-level forcing/outflow should allow for increased
coverage of thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Slow cell
motions and rates of 1"/hr may promote localized spots of 1-1.5"
totals and possible incidents of scattered localized flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E satellite animated imagery suite shows the
center of a compact shortwave over north-central CO at this time,
with an impressive downstream 50kt jet streak indicated by dense
mid to upper-level cloud shield (and embedded shallower convective
elements) across NE CO, SE WY into W NEB. The combined features
remain on the northern periphery of a strong synoptic ridge
centered along the SE CO/SW KS boarder; leaving another favorable
day for convective activity starting with normal mountain
circulation.

CIRA LPW and RAP analysis show 7-10C Tds and enhanced moisture
from the San Francisco Plateau across the central CO Rockies,
while surface Tds are in the upper 50s in lower elevations of SW
CO and even remain in the low 50s to mid-50s in the central
terrain, which combined with moderate moisture noted even in the
500-300mb resulting in TPW values over 1.25" in the Valleys and
even building into the North Park region later this afternoon,
nearing 1" values even to the highest peaks which is clearly well
above normal and near the highest percentiles of all-periods.
East of the Rockies, moisture flux still remains upsloping
building ever so slightly as a surface pressure trof remains in
solid positioning just south of the Lake/Palmer Divide into
West-central KS at this time. All in all, a very moist
environment in place suggests an increased potential in at least
coverage, even as far south as the Sangre de Cristo Range.

Currently full insolation in all but the northern Colorado Plains,
Wyoming and Far northwest CO will help to expand instability
fields across the region with RAP forecast of 750-1250 J/kg across
the northeast Rockies in 3-4 hours with most of the region above
500 J/kg even into the San Juan Range. Initial thunderstorm
activity will be driven by normal mountain circulation convergence
(as already noted along the Sangre de Cristo with LightningCast
already over 70% for CI in the next hour). Initial rates of
.5-.75" will translate toward .75-1"/hr with maybe a highly
isolated 1.25"/hr rate toward mid-afternoon, with best potential
near and downstream of the shortwave in the northern Colorado
Ranges given slightly better dynamics. Spots of 1-1.5", perhaps
locally as high as 2" are possible though 00z. Given rocky,
complex terrain and scattered older burn scars, scattered
incidents of flash flooding are considered possible through this
afternoon into evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7QEw1Im5S95EJU2ECkJWFi38j9mv9OVxj5YExd9oOFjxof_X1XO9aF06anhJiIElaPAoE3w0aJJdziUszPSlN1Ik6Mk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40960689 40950660 40840599 40310526 39470497
38650488 37970478 37330443 36650455 36030486
35540516 35570579 35560638 35570689 35950711
36510682 37070689 37200740 37260808 37560875
38030921 38580946 39000944 39460897 39740855
40130831 40620814 40920757

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 18:13:04

AWUS01 KWNH 271812
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0861
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Illinois, Northwest Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271809Z - 272100Z

Summary...There will be a window for potential training of
thunderstorm activity from the Chicago Metro Area toward the
border region between northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana
between 1 PM and 4 PM CDT. Rain rates could exceed 2 inches per
hour at times; if those occur in areas that have already received
heavy rainfall, flash flooding could rapidly develop, or existing
flash flooding could worsen.

Discussion...Isolated supercells along the western shore of Lake
Michigan have occasionally exhibited enough southward right-moving
tendency near the composite lake breeze and outflow boundary to
produce rapid bursts of heavy rainfall on the order of 1-2 inches
in about 45 minutes. Thus far, the threat of flash flooding has
been more isolated as the storms themselves were spaced out, but
has materialized where supercell motion has been slowest and
intersected with urban areas. However, there are signals in the
past 30 minutes for some elevated thunderstorm redevelopment in
the wake of a lead supercell and storm cluster now on the south
side of Chicago. The redevelopment is occurring over the urban
corridor from Lake County into Cook County, and could pass over
some areas that have already received heavy rainfall. The lead
thunderstorm cluster should continue to make progress south along
the IL-IN border region with continued intense instantaneous rain
rates, and there is potential for a training band of convection to
continue to feed in behind it over the next few hours. The
environment will be very similar -- a reservoir of extreme
instability upstream with high PWs -- which will support rain
rates over 2 inches per hour and a continued flash flood threat.

Lamers

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7iixnL1R30V2288vbX6oudMMB_GuppjCrW7hT0iFJBHBNHFsRZ1Wm1wlIoJpVxfjekE6QpQB-Hc3fXZHkz_jft09PmU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42438788 42278741 41488694 40828701 40868801
41598827 42258823

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 21:07:18

AWUS01 KWNH 272107
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-280300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0864
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Much of Indiana...Northeast & Eastern
Illinois...Southwest Ohio...Far Northern Kentucky...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272105Z - 280300Z

SUMMARY...Intense, locally repeating thunderstorms capable of
2.5"/hr rates may result in multiple stripes of 2-4" totals in 1-3
hours resulting in possible localized incidents of flash flooding,
particularly across urban centers where there will be limited
infiltration.

DISCUSSION...A complex, vigorous and highly dynamic environment
across the Great Lakes is spreading south into the Ohio Valley
with very deep moisture/unstable environment to support
strong/highly efficient rainfall production. However, given
strong deep layer flow, the speed will likely limit overall totals
with exception of incidents of repeating/training which are
probable locally across a broadening zone from W OH to E IL.
Aloft a strong shortwave at the nose of a splitting upper-level
jet can be seen with rapid WV leading ahead of rapid/broadening
warming in WV across WI into northern LP of MI. This split
downstream has allow for solid divergence aloft and upscale growth
of initial supercells near Milwaukee and Chicago this afternoon,
into a progressive bow in north-central IND with an upstream
elongated long updraft from SE WI across Lake Michigan.

Here the upstream edge of outflow boundary can be seen from a
surface low near ISW in central WI due south along, just east of
I-39 into northern IL. A surface pressure trof well ahead of the
surface cold front is helping to provide slightly enhanced
confluence at the trailing end of a broad west-southwesterly very
moist and very unstable inflow where surface Tds are in the upper
70s, low 80s and MLCAPEs are up to 5000 J/kg. This ascends
orthogonally to the outflow boundary supporting the trailing broad
updraft in SE WI but also newer development along the flank of the
exiting bow echo across the western suburbs of Chicago at this
time. Scattered TCU and weak CBs are intersecting and
reinvigorating surface based convection along the outflow. Hourly
rates of 2.5-3"/hr are probable given broad updrafts that are
rotating, providing the extra flux convergence from super-cell
influences. It is along this upstream edge, the greatest potential
of training will exist given unidirectional steering flow
generally parallel to the N-S outflow boundary. Depending on
further expansion/destabilization, streaks of 2-4" are possible
mainly in E IL and along the IND line. This is in line with
recent RRFS and WoFS solutions, with the latter suggesting 90th
percentile range may even locally reach 6", which seems to be a
bound for worse case solution given current trends.

Further east...the progressive bow echo will help to produce a
quick sub-hourly 1-1.5" higher near the cyclonic rotor of the bow,
but RAP analysis still shows some remaining pockets of
conditionally unstable air and with reduced upstream development,
perhaps further elevated advection of higher theta-E air to
support additional upstream development filing in before the main
upper-level trof swings through. This is more in line with recent
HRRR and ARW solutions with slightly reduced totals but localized
random intersections up to 2-3". Proximity to urban centers where
limited infiltration and higher run-off given the shear rates
resulting in the highest potential for localized FF across central
IND into SW Ohio later this evening.

All in all, the broadening of the split flow and current trends do
not provide high confidence, but a few incidents of flash flooding
(as described above) remain possible through this evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4oYYttlfZLP3JT869MGLLBZz8nkclrS4uRkQLDhbGDONfOx5S96nw_r-8hqfe-Y5MyUvVfmIQBG7q2PxOhZH9fzlWXU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42378797 42248716 41908654 41398595 40818518
39898415 38878434 38408545 38568699 38898789
39808829 40588852 41358865 41788865 42138842

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 20:19:50

AWUS01 KWNH 272019
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-280215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0863
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Mogollon Rim and Southeast
Arizonia...West-central to Southwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272020Z - 280215Z

SUMMARY...Increasing scattered thunderstorms to continue to expand
into smaller clusters with slow cell motions. Ample remaining
moisture and weak but sufficient inflow likely to maintain
efficient rainfall with rates of 1-1.5"/hr. Scattered totals of
1-2" in 1-2 hours may result in possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...While mid-level vorticity center is well distant in
northern Colorado, there remains a south-southwestward extending
700-500mb trough through S CO into northwest to western NM that is
driving remaining upslope flow out of the southern deserts as well
as through the Rio Grande Valley to intersect the terrain in SE AZ
and SW NM. Full insolation today has help to build conditionally
unstable environment along the Mogollon Rim from NW AZ through to
the Mogollon/Gila Mountains in E AZ/W NM where MLCAPEs have risen
to 500-1000+ J/kg from west to east. Better low level moisture
out of the Valley into SE AZ has increased instability to 1500
J/kg in Cochise county where low 60s Tds reside.

Unlike prior days, there was some weak capping across the region,
but that is quickly eroding from the mid-level trough axis
westward through the Rim. Isolated convective initiation is
starting to take place across the areas of reduced capping but
also increasing moisture flux convergence generally centered near
SOW and SW toward SVC. With stronger updraft strength, rates of
1-1.5"/hr are to become more likely with further insolation and destabilization. Generally low level convergence toward the
mid-level trough axis will be countered by weak westerly flow
aloft, allowing for back-sheared anvils to fall along the path of
the initial core allowing for random increased rainfall residency
for localized 1.5-2" maximum. Given rocky, rough terrain, this
may result in localized incidents of flash flooding, with higher concentration/areal coverage more likely across SE AZ into the
eastern Mogollon Rim where instability remains highest through the
late afternoon into evening hours, with a larger cluster possible
to evolve/upscale grow toward 00z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_b66ash13TywNiAIzMA18RA_f-hos8RgGWAlxkI0Rph0FRZ4d_hn9uozU3AaY2x-st4JdeOWJD0QlNk6mb4z-aXF6rk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36181283 36151181 34930880 35680717 34270708
33170747 32060780 31270807 31280960 31611172
32681049 33241055 33651094 34391230 35611322

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 21:37:56

AWUS01 KWNH 272137
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-280300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0865
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwest Kansas...Far
Southwest Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272135Z - 280300Z

SUMMARY...Strong initially slow moving cells will be capable of
1.5-2"/hr rates and with some mergers/collisions, localized total
of 2-3" pose possible incident(s) of localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis shows traditional surface low
north of Lamar, CO with a persistent surface trof/shear axis
extending northeastward toward CBK before starting to sag south
from K82 east toward NW MO. Surface to boundary layer
northeasterly flow has been pooling enhanced moisture values
through the South Platte River Valley and northwest KS with
1.5-1.75" Total Pwats in confluent flow responding to the
deepening low across E CO. Proximity to the deep layer ridge
centered along the SE CO/SW KS border and ample clear skies south
of a stratus deck across SE WY into W NEB has allowed for
temperatures to rise into the low to mid-100s with said enhanced
mid to upper 60s Tds.

As a result, highly unstable air to 5000 J/kg MLCAPE is analyzed
along north of the boundary and with the convergence along the
boundary convective initiation has rapidly occurred (overshooting
tops to -75C)along the CO/NE KS border. That stratus shield is
associated with an older jet streak out of the Rockies this
morning that is starting to open toward right entrance ascent
pattern to provide further divergence aloft to support the
updrafts, while the overall steering flow remains very weak. As
such, strong moisture flux updrafts will support 1.5-2"/hr rates
and with limited cell motions may result in quick 2-3" totals in
the next hour or so. RADAR animation shows outflows are already
starting to emanate and converge for additional proximity
development, so eventual slow motions toward the north-northeast
may allow for some cell mergers/collisions that could result in
short-term enhancement totwward 2.25-2.5"/hr rates.

While the area has been very dry in the upper 0-40cm (less than
20% soil saturation), FFG values fluctuate through the area but
are as low as 1-1.5"/hr in Lincoln/Kit Carson County, but
generally remain around 2"/hr and 2-3"/3hrs. Given both are in
range, and up/downdrafts are fairly broad and incident or two of
flash flooding is considered possible through the next few hours.
Expansion and slow motions to the north will approach the southern
Sand Hills of SW and central NEB, where obviously the risk will be
mitigated by the higher soil infiltration.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7j2ckYpfDnJOQ-8MgTxRLxJiqTO1p1gA2PXcFvx6XZZn3WSnbIF6-tWjBjXM_tlPwtfoxj8-mMwbvqix9r3-j1ON3aI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41180083 40909989 40309978 39859992 38810115
38380206 38280274 38380314 38730337 39410325
40540252 40870211 41090152

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 23:51:52

AWUS01 KWNH 272351
FFGMPD
MIZ000-280530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0867
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Northern & Eastern Lower Peninsula of Michigan...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272350Z - 280530Z

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms with ample moisture for 1.5-2"/hr
rates show signs of upstream strengthening for repeating/training
that may result in 2-3.5" totals and localized flash flooding
through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...23z surface analysis depicts a subtle surface wave in
the center of the MI U.P, between P53 and ISQ along a quickly
advancing cold front. This is generally collocated with the left
exit region of strong 110-120kt 250mb jet crossing Lake Superior
and strengthening shortwave. VWP and RAP analysis also denote
this inflection, perhaps enhanced by the shapes of the Lakes and
prior wave, to 850mb, but unlike the surface; the 850mb boundary
extends southeastward across the northern LP into the 'Thumb' and
Ontario Peninsula. In the wake of the initial shortwave, strong
southwesterly flow along/ahead of the cold front has strengthened
to 30-35kts and advected higher moisture and unstable air to
replenish/enhance unstable areas of the northern LP that were not
mixed over with the initial convection.

Surface Tds in the upper 60s, near 70F combined with pooled
moisture along the 850mb boundary is support 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and total PWats starting to near 2.0". The strong
isentropic ascent/convergence has resulted in stronger
thunderstorms in Alpena/Alcona county, with additional upstream
development through the northern Lake Michigan Islands. Rates of
1.5-2"/hr are likely to become more common, but given inflection
of deepening, deep layer cyclone; the pooling of moisture and
favorable unidirectional steering flow should allow for expanding
development and potential for training thunderstorms over the next
few hours. Recent HRRR solutions suggest, as evening turns to
night, strengthening LLJ and boundary layer decoupling may allow
for cells to become a bit more surface rooted. This would
generally deflect the track of the training potential more south
of southeast which would bring areas surrounding Saginaw Bay into
the eastern Thumb of Michigan and perhaps even northern suburbs of
Detroit for training/repeating cells into the early overnight
period as well.

Naturally lower FFG values across the northeast tip of the LP into
the 'Thumb' are about <2"/hr and 2-3"/3hrs; both of which are well
in the range of localized exceedance. As such, flash flooding is
considered possible through 05z tonight.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6iHPo08NZfltERd1GHiw07ZjXUraRBqtGoTHr428-whp2aPcfNzHQNwIDKOO7fDYNJQxuocauXSN9a9m0hdVuBiJY8g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45888546 45858497 45658411 45188329 44748292
44108248 43088221 42568257 42488326 43128390
44198450 44648503 45018547 45398580 45778576

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 23:17:02

AWUS01 KWNH 272316
FFGMPD
COZ000-280500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0866
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Central Colorado...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272320Z - 280500Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered incidents of focused flash
flooding remain possible into the early overnight period. Rates of
1-1.25"/hr and localized totals to 1.5" to continue, with better
signals across the San Juan range through the central Front Range.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible, 10.3um EIR and GLM/NLDN lightning
animation show a few clusters of enhanced activity in the last
hour or so across the central Front Range of the Colorado Rockies
as well as cluster lifting north east off the San Juan Range. RAP
and surface analysis shows an increasing stabilizing northern
Colorado High Plains, with some inflection of the surface to
boundary layer shear axis noted in the central High Plains toward
Pueblo before angling northwest toward Central and North Park.
LightningCast denotes a solid increase in percentages above 70%
across the North Park and ranges southwest into NW Eagle county
and S Routt county. Modest remaining 1000-1250 J/kg of SBCAPE
exists through this area and along that aforementioned shear axis
with a few 1500-1750 J/kg pockets remains in south-central CO
northeast of the San Juan activity. Given exiting shortwave over
NE Colorado at this time, general southwest to west-southwest
confluence should concentration best development through before
moving into more stable air across the Northern Rockies and
downslope areas in the High Plains.

Total layer moisture remains well above normal with some variation
due to off-higher terrain valley mixing but Tds are in the upper
40s to low 50s and total PWat values are closer to 1" in the
highest plateau with 1.25" or higher in the lower valleys in W and
E CO, though reach to over 1.5" further east along the Lake-Palmer
divide into far E CO. With 5-10kts of confluent convergence (and
southwestward propagating boundary), moisture flux convergence
should support rates of 1-1.25"/hr but longevity will be reduced
as the boundary undercuts and shifts southwest for additional
redevelopment in south-central CO. So, only localized 1.5" totals
should be highly isolated, but the rates over complex/rocky ground
conditions, even .5-.75" totals may pose scattered incidents of
focused flash flooding.

There are some hints that a more mature cluster through the
central Rockies with some enhanced moisture flux north of the
surface shear axis may allow further propagation out into the High
Plains and deeper overall moisture. This is less certain, but
also should move into slightly higher FFG, so FF risk would likely
remain with any intersection with smaller towns/urban centers and
fairly quickly at that.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6cNWAd-pgIVmrsyTW2ia2jlw2NPCtYqrFp49ZBMuRVOANTMh0sgve6uJMoCR6fT7jWwMVAvSrXLvkalTtX2Z-goIGIc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40920627 40870526 40440487 39770474 39320433
38570339 38020376 38070579 37530717 37750803
38730801 39980782 40560714

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 01:31:14

AWUS01 KWNH 280131
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-280700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0868
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona....Southwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280130Z - 280700Z

SUMMARY...Remaining conditionally unstable air between approaching
outflow boundaries likely to result in scattered thunderstorms
with rates of 1.25-1.5"/hr possible.

DISCUSSION...Fading GOES-E Visible imagery shows low-level
streamers emerging from the lower southern deserts of
south-central Arizona shifting eastward upslope toward two
complexes of thunderstorms. The northern linear feature coming
off the peak of the Mogollon Rim from near KPAN southwest toward
KSAD, which have solid cooling convective towers, but remain
dotted/scattered along the line. The outflow is slowly advancing
downslope into the easterly inflow. The second larger MCS over
eastern Sonora state in NW Mexico is very broad with numerous
overshooting tops and cold canopy below -70C with some tops to
below -80C. Most of the activity remains south of the border, but
there are hints the Meso-high is strengthening and an outflow
boundary is progressing northward in proximity to the SE AZ border
at this time. Additional streams can be seen with occasional
development across SW NM advancing westward. All areas are
generally advancing to an area of 1000-1500 J/kg of remaining CAPE
but also increased deeper layer moisture where TPW is over 1.5
nearing 1.75". The broad scale overturning/ convergence should
result in scattered broadening updraft cores capable of
short-burst (sub-hourly) 1-1.5" totals. Given the rate over
hard/rocky ground conditions, incidents of localized flash
flooding will remains possible through the early overnight period
as the boundaries collide and the developing complex shifts
eastward downslope.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-iT0yqZXU1CDSy8mwHflRBRu8TMP2JZ2LKYUzfrVsiaAQGtj8HdionvkRJRGvnOnvSjWEv-kQa2YRrKRhu1nRAhWktI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34821139 34241047 33530959 33100904 33060795
32720701 31740690 31670796 31250802 31250844
31210967 31261105 31741250 32461241 32691184
33271132 34241195 34681194

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 05:15:54

AWUS01 KWNH 280515
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-281015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0869
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
114 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...eastern Lower MI into OH and the upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280512Z - 281015Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage with areas of training
will setup a threat for flash flooding from eastern Lower MI into
much of OH and the adjacent upper OH Valley through 10Z. Training
of heavy rain will allow for 1 to 2+ inches in an hour and storm
totals of 2 to 4+ inches in a few locations.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased across southern
MI as of 05Z, ahead of a mid-level shortwave advancing
southeastward to the north. Despite earlier stabilization from
Monday afternoon's storms, westerly low level flow has replenished
moisture below 700 mb, with modestly steep 700-500 mb lapse rates
of 6-7 C/km allowing for MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg
across southern Lower MI per 04Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

Farther south, central to western OH was also in a relative
minimum of instability per SPC mesoanalysis data but that will be
changing as the night progresses. As the shortwave over Lower MI
continues to advance southeastward tonight, westerly low level
moisture transport via 30-50 kt at 850 mb will advect moisture
eastward from IL/IN into OH, supporting increasing instability
through 10Z. As this occurs, thunderstorm coverage will increase
over northwestern into central OH, with an overall movement toward
the SSE with time. The orientation of the forecast expanding
thunderstorm cluster(s) aligned with the forecast movement toward
the SSE will allow for training at times with hourly rainfall of 1
to 2+ inches. These rates could result in flash flooding in a few
locations with storm totals of 2 to 4 inches expected (locally
higher).

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8KQpsFLCbbplWfFR7N-F52_OstSBCLHTL1zoeC8lwbXekHebyosesFye3bC5uoPnV9hHf6iIQMS3rurppef4ZlWUVgI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43088358 42878310 42368286 41728258 41028183
39618129 38498163 38078267 38088354 38808429
39588472 41258509 42438470 42978397

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 05:55:46

AWUS01 KWNH 280555
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-281150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0870
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...western/central NY into northern PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280553Z - 281150Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding may occur across portions
of central and western NY into northern PA over the next 3-6
hours. Hourly rainfall, locally in excess of 2 inches, will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Areas of scattered thunderstorms were ongoing from
northern PA into central and western NY as of 0530Z. These storms
were occurring out ahead of a mid to upper-level shortwave trough
and associated cold front advancing ESE/SE across southern Ontario
with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE estimated from western PA to the eastern
shores of Lake Erie and Ontario as seen on 05Z SPC mesoanalysis
data. Cells have had a history of upstream development and
repeating, such as what has been observed across the Allegheny
Plateau south of I-86 along the NY/PA border, locally generating
2+ inches of rain in an hour in southern Cattaraugus County.

Going forward, while coverage is a bit uncertain, small clusters
of thunderstorms are likely to continue within the slowly
expanding instability axis as low level winds of 15-25 kt from the
southwest continue to advect moisture into the region. With a
general mean steering flow from the west at 10-20 kt and lower
level flow from the southwest, potential for upstream thunderstorm
development within a low level warm advection regime will support
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches due to training, although
localized hourly rainfall in excess of 2 inches will remain
possible. Storm totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher) are
expected through 12Z on an isolated basis along with the potential
for flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9dKppCG0M8q1Htos_NgAzLjg1nFKWjLYv7T8ShDhWUCuTUat6RXWZYOAF9MN6Ipt0vGvS2e2EbJT7ImmXjy1ax0P9O8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44677602 44527533 43957506 42467551 41507642
41037762 40957925 41388058 42098063 42537974
43437913 43637735

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 06:40:24

AWUS01 KWNH 280640
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-281040-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0871
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...southeastern NE into northeastern KS and
northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280638Z - 281040Z

SUMMARY...An axis of heavy rain is expected to focus across
southeastern NE into northeastern KS and the mid-MO Valley over
the next 2-4 hours. Training will likely allow for 1 to 2 inches
of rain in an hour or less with storm totals of 3 to 5 inches
possible.

DISCUSSION...A broad region of fairly disorganized rainfall with
embedded pockets of thunderstorms was ongoing as of 0610Z across
southeastern NE into northern KS. This activity is what remains
from more robust convective activity that occurred earlier in the
night across central NE into northwestern KS. Several embedded
mesoscale circulations were embedded within the cluster spanning
from NE into KS, but most notably across south-central NE, about
20 miles northwest of Grand Island, in the form of a well-defined
mid-level vorticity max. A warm advection wing of convection was
located ahead of this mid-level circulation over southeastern NE
into northwestern KS, within a region of very weak deeper layer
steering flow. Peak MRMS-derived hourly rainfall has been in the
1-2 inch range over the past hour with this feature.

The environment over southeastern NE into northwestern MO
contained 3000 to 4000 J/kg MUCAPE and PWs of 1.9 to 2.3 inches
per 06Z SPC mesoanalysis data. The mid-level vorticity max is
forecast to track southeastward through 12Z around the
northeastern side of an expansive upper ridge centered over
eastern CO/NM. A favored zone for heavy rain is expected to
persist from portions of southeastern NE into northeastern KS and
possibly northwestern MO through 10Z. The orientation of the axis
of heavy rain aligned with the forecast track of the mid-level
circulation could result in locally very heavy rainfall with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and potential for storm total
rainfall in excess of 4 inches. Areas of flash flooding may occur
as a result.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7ZB4XjG3JCKZ8ETgK9AP6Ti3YbQwV35HY_vzxnYLoxwEHtX9IflVnOcxJ-62mcb9e8foGEbiWcTKiliC6MjebSfgVws$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41299752 40859571 40109439 39399413 38999481
39229604 39659726 40059914 40949913

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 07:44:28

AWUS01 KWNH 280744
FFGMPD
AZZ000-281300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0872
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...central to southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280741Z - 281300Z

SUMMARY...The flash flood threat associated with an MCS over
southeastern AZ will linger over southeastern AZ and possibly
impact portions of central AZ through 13Z. Hourly to sub-hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected on a localized basis.

DISCUSSION...Infrared satellite imagery from GOES East through
0715Z showed that cloud tops were warming overall in association
with an MCS along the eastern AZ/MX border, although bursts of
colder cloud tops and lightning were observed over southeastern AZ
into northeastern Sonora in the wake of the system. An MCV was
identified near I-19 in southern Santa Cruz County via radar
imagery with movement toward the WNW, beneath pronounced
anti-cyclonic outflow in the upper levels seen on water vapor
imagery. Instability has reduced over the past 3-hours by 500-1500
J/kg as seen in the 3-hr MUCAPE trend on the SPC mesoanalysis data
from 07Z, but with pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE remaining.

Despite the overall reduction in instability and warming as seen
in cloud tops on infrared imagery, a localized flash flood threat
will linger across portions of AZ for another few hours. This will
be as localized increases in instability occur along the outer
periphery of the MCS via contributions from outflow and low level
southerly flow from the Gulf of California into parts of central
AZ. In addition, subtle vorticity maxima over NM and Chihuahua,
embedded within the southwestern portion of an expansive upper
level ridge centered over the southern High Plains, are expected
to aid in localized convective development over the next 3-5 hours
as they encounter remaining pockets of instability. The
anomalously moist environment with PWs of at least 1.3 to 1.5
inches (per 06Z GPS data over southeastern AZ) will have the
potential to support high rainfall rates with 1 to 2 inches in
30-60 minutes. These lingering high rain rates will allow for at
least an isolated flash flood threat through the remainder of the
overnight over southeastern to central AZ.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-E9OSdX-pO_q5z-1RVMkXGjLPtIp8TRvUH87LM4xpV9CjENxWtEMT-bLLByrB_MVZvCdGiNEZDmhRNNLuqljEXgfw0U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33921144 33461056 32770961 31990926 31040965
31081099 31391210 31881295 33081305 33801234

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 10:34:46

AWUS01 KWNH 281034
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-281600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0874
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
633 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...western/northern PA into western/central NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281032Z - 281600Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of flash flooding will remain possible
across portions of western/northern PA into western/central NY
through 16Z (12 PM EDT). Training of heavy rain will support
hourly totals of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher).

DISCUSSION...scattered thunderstorms were ongoing as of 1015Z
across central NY into western and northeastern PA. These storms
have had a history of generating widely scattered instances of
hourly rainfall between 1-2 inches over the past few hours but
coverage has been low so far. The storms were occurring out ahead
of a mid to upper-level shortwave trough and associated cold front
advancing SE across southern Ontario. A number of embedded
vorticity maxima were noted within the westerly to northwesterly
mid-level flow. One vorticity max in particular was observed over
northern Lake Erie, with blossoming convection just ahead of the
circulation, with additional development likely over portions of
northwestern PA and western NY within the next 1-3 hours.

Appreciable MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg was limited to a small region
of western NY in the vicinity of Buffalo into northeastern OH.
However, instability will expand across much of central NY into PA
this morning as daytime heating gets underway and continued
moisture advection from the southwest contributes to higher
dewpoints in the 925-850 mb layer. Additional forcing for ascent
will come as the upper trough axis over southern Ontario advances
east with increasing upper level diffluence and divergence within
the left-exit region of 90-110 kt jet streak near 200 mb advances
downstream. Individual cells are expected to track toward the east
with the deeper layer mean flow, but upstream development and repeating/training are likely to contribute to scattered areas of
training containing hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher)
in a few locations. Resulting rainfall totals through 16Z are
expected to range from 2 to 3 inches (locally higher) with areas
of flash flooding possible, especially should there be overlap
with urban areas or otherwise poorly draining locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9NQSBm9_JBO6eeEycCuBUQ9S2iCddYts4xOwVK73nKcjbYgW6gPL5rq5sUk6wd0XrQ-LkXeXRiauh6gJoa6rYZhfb0Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43947657 43897608 43337516 42247527 41267626
40797750 40417889 40708041 41328064 42008063
42358014 42577978 42967932 43457921 43617850
43787732

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 10:00:26

AWUS01 KWNH 280959
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0873
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280956Z - 281410Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible from the
upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians through 14Z (10 AM).
Training of heavy rain will allow for hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches (locally higher) with storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0935Z showed a region of
thunderstorms advancing southeastward from eastern and southern OH
with an embedded axis of training which passed through Columbus
around 08Z containing hourly rainfall between 1-2 inches. 0935Z
imagery showed an apparent MCV about 45 miles SSE of Columbus,
tracking nearly parallel to a warm front which was analyzed from
west-central OH into far southwestern WV at 09Z. A second
MCV-feature was observed over eastern OH, tracking toward western
PA. Instability has continued to increase across southern OH with
a 500 to 1000 J/kg increase in MLCAPE since 06Z per SPC
mesoanalysis data, owing to low level moisture advection from the
west. 09Z estimated MLCAPE was 250-750 J/kg with the ongoing
convective cluster in southern OH, while less than 250 J/kg was in
place farther north along the OH/PA border.

Low level westerly winds (40-50 kt at 850 mb) are likely to weaken
a bit over the next few hours but continue the advection of
moisture and instability toward the east over the next 3-5 hours.
Expectations are for convection to maintain along the leading edge
of the advancing instability gradient, which should move into
eastern KY, much of WV and portions of western VA and northeastern
TN through 14Z. The MCV over south-central OH is forecast to track southeastward in the near term, carrying the greatest short term
potential for training heavy rain of 1 to 2+ inches per hour into
WV. Additional convection may develop elsewhere across eastern KY
into the central Appalachians within the warm advection regime,
with isolated flash flood potential. Through 14Z. Storm total
rainfall of 2-4 inches will be possible, though these higher end
amounts should remain fairly isolated.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_XFJJSjzBiyaTSz6WnrIpDEFZql_I_jUXGBc3vtKSV4pjy_WlVGMxqYBOuWutT4Lw9WI9V7LNqjw7tlMZhPewqqdy8Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40028123 39888034 39537996 39047978 38167988
36808100 35988233 35928355 36358420 37168426
38258373 39228310 39618254 39888202

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 14:04:30

AWUS01 KWNH 281404
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-282000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0875
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1003 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...Southern West Virginia, Southwest Virginia,
Eastern Tennessee, and Western North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281400Z - 282000Z

SUMMARY...2 inch/hour rainfall rates with a series of disturbances
riding along a warm front could cause additional flash flooding
into the mountains into this afternoon. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of storms moving southeastward along
a warm front that has banked along the southern Appalachians could
cause additional flash flooding into this afternoon. The storms
across southwestern West Virginia this morning have a history of
producing flash flooding due to multiple inch per hour rainfall
rates. The heaviest of the rain has now reached the southern tip
of West Virginia and will be heading into southwest Virginia over
the next few hours. Meanwhile a largely separate cluster of storms
over northeastern Tennessee will continue pressing southeastward
towards the Great Smoky Mountain N.P. As MUCAPE values remain in
the 1,000-1,500 J/kg range across far western North Carolina, it
appears the instability should allow for the storms to maintain
themselves into the convective minimum in the late morning as the
larger MCS transitions to surface based and much more widely
scattered convection across this region into this afternoon.

FFGs are particularly low along most of the VA/TN border, in the
1-1.5 inch/hour range. For the rest of the area highlighted in
this MPD, FFGs range between 1.5 and 2 inches per hour. Behind the
storms early this afternoon, instability is expected to rapidly
increase due to both maximum daytime heating as well as
instability advection from the west, peaking between 2,500 and
3,500 J/kg, with PWATs remaining around 1.75 inches. The plentiful
instability and moisture suggests that when afternoon storms fire
along the mountains this afternoon, they will be capable of
multiple inch/hour rainfall rates.

CAMs guidance (particularly the HRRR & RRFS) suggest the storms
this afternoon will come in multiple waves, tracking southward
across this region. While the storms should be fast-moving,
they'll follow one another, fairly closely, so minimal dry time is
expected in between. Given the already low FFGs in this region,
this could result in additional flash flooding. The storms could
continue, especially over Tennessee and North Carolina, beyond the
time of this discussion, so an update appears probable.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!64V_tPwmg0OhUXiNVp3Gbd2g2VoPSiXQfziOVWRtcn0YPqiYwvi7n7jF3ZAA3RDb8OfPU9aqTHzrohjqayabJF71M-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37978167 37708039 37408006 36928039 36688068
35718173 35238228 35168300 35258376 35528418
35948414 36548369 37038299 37638248 37858233

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 18:12:58

AWUS01 KWNH 281812
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-290000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0878
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...Central Colorado and Northern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281810Z - 290000Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms forming along the Rockies will
develop into line segments as they advect east out over the
Plains. Flash flooding is likely from upslope enhancement in the
mountains, then from coverage and higher rainfall intensity over
the Plains.

DISCUSSION...Numerous showers and thunderstorms are developing
over the Colorado Rockies this afternoon. These storms are
expected to continue to grow upscale over the next few hours,
particularly those forming along the Front Ranges. Strong easterly
moisture advection is bringing PWATs over 1 inch into the Front
Range, with PWATs over 1.75 inches along the KS/CO border as
analyzed by the SPC Mesoanalysis. This influx of moisture will run
into eastward-moving storms that are forming over the mountains
but will advect eastward off the mountains and out onto the
Plains. As the storms run into increasingly unstable and
moisture-rich air, they will grow upscale into clusters and line
segments as they move into eastern Colorado. Increasingly heavy
rain will be a notable factor with any and all storms as they
progress eastward.

The storms that are currently developing over the mountains are
likely to cause locally heavy rain, which due to topography will
quickly convert to runoff and flash flooding today, especially
where the storms are the most persistent. FFGs are locally as low
as 1 inch per hour across southwestern Colorado. Further south
over New Mexico, a similar evolution is expected with the storms
advecting east off the mountains and towards the Panhandles by
this evening. Burn scars and other locally flood prone/low-lying
areas are the areas most vulnerable to the development of flash
flooding in this region.

CAMs guidance suggest most of the convection will move into the
Plains by this evening. However, some of the storms will remain
tied to the terrain, and will therefore continue to threaten
additional flash flooding over the Colorado mountains into this
evening.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_mSDIqv5PCjjrFZm3DDKT5NOVGkeOO8SN7fOyhlk1blbsT_ULmbFuuJrag87h3lFTI8L6d42Hbfx61YuGRBHh6D0mos$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41400440 41050328 40520309 39220341 37130455
35700564 36780701 37810774 38450810 39690775
40720635 41350487

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 19:59:00

AWUS01 KWNH 281957
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-282356-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0879
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...northeastern New Jersey, southern New York State,
and western Connecticut

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281956Z - 282356Z

Summary...A slow-moving cluster of storms will spread heavy
rainfall across much of the discussion area through the afternoon.
Areas of flash flooding are expected, with significant impacts
possible.

Discussion...A slow-moving cluster of storms currently extends
from near Poughkeepsie, NY southward along I-87 through Newark, NJ
and New Brunswick. The storms are embedded in roughly 20 knots of
mean steering flow aloft while oriented favorably for training.
Areas on the southern sides of the complex currently have the
greatest potential for training, where convective cells have
recently increased in intensity while drifting slowly northward
and merging. Flash flood potential will also peak in the short
term due to very slow cell movement. Given the airmass supporting
this activity (1.8 inch PW, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect ongoing thunderstorms to eventually begin producing 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates, which will readily cause runoff/flash flood issues given
the urban nature of ground conditions in the region. FFG
thresholds of 0.5-1 inch/hr will also be exceeded at times.

The current trek of the cluster will result in scattered
thunderstorms and 1-2 inch/hr rain rates spreading more into
southern New York State (including White Plains, Yorktown, and New
York City Metro) and adjacent areas of southwestern Connecticut
(near Stamford) over the next 1-3 hours. Any upstream development
over central New Jersey will also have to be monitored carefully
for intensification and merging into the complex, resulting in
potential prolonging of rain rates and worsening flash flood
potential. Local amounts of 3-5 inches are expected through 2300Z
- especially across far northeastern New Jersey.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Kz8SK5m0s7AsV4Z5ucRvJ841F1s7_H80gi4ioawEeWd8NTDzj7y2-IsLAy6HGvgc_vXxJcCqj_nn9RcmG3gvWt2CkY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42357301 41697242 40867253 39787456 41307472
42107415

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 20:54:12

AWUS01 KWNH 282054
FFGMPD
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-290152-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0880
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and the
District of Columbia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282052Z - 290152Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible - especially as
storms over the Appalachians reach the I-95 Urban Corridor between
Washington, D.C.; Baltimore; and surrounding areas.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have increased in coverage
across the Appalachians generally from Frederick, MD southwest to
Harrisonburg, VA. The storms are moving southeastward at about
15-25 knots or so, and with southeastward progression, they'll
encounter a more moist airmass characterized by 1.9 inch PW and
sufficient instability (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) for strong to intense
convection and heavy rainfall. The presence of towering cumulus
and isolated showers ahead of this convection suggests potential
for mergers that could also prolong rain rates over the next 2-4
hours. Storms should also reach more sensitive ground conditions (urban/hydrophobic surfaces near DC/Baltimore and the general
vicinity), promoting excessive runoff and flash flood potential.

On the current path, storms should reach the I-95/DC to Baltimore
urban corridor between 2130-23Z (5:30p-7p eastern). These storms
will have potential for 1-2 inch/hr rain rates that will readily
exceed local FFG in a few spots (especially urban areas). Flash
flood potential will likely maximize during that timeframe and
persist eastward toward Delaware and eastern Maryland through at
least 01Z (9p eastern).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6TNmyNgwgG3UFoBD-4F_v2YVRpRBttIED7lajkm6PvldMz3ZfySTeyivgmkF_TrBXtp6nXkrH6rjk1FtTqEtaisoxB4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39777735 39707575 38867506 37807532 37497658
37587847 38777871 39407811

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 21:15:48

AWUS01 KWNH 282115
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-290313-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0881
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
514 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of Arizona, western New Mexico, and
southern Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282113Z - 290313Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are producing locally heavy
rainfall in a climatologically favored monsoon regime. Areas of
flash flooding could occur in a few areas through 03Z/9p mountain
time.

Discussion...Areas of scattered thunderstorms are moving
northwestward across the discussion area, with the greatest
concentrations currently extending from Kingman to Page, AZ and
from near Show Low, AZ to near Gallup, NM. The storms are slow
moving due to weak southeasterly steering flow on the southern
periphery of an upper ridge centered over New Mexico.
Additionally, storms are in a sufficiently moist/unstable
environment (1.1-1.4 inch PW) for locally heavy rainfall, with
rates exceed 1 inch/hr at times. The rates are high enough to
cause occasional flash flood issues particularly in low spots/slot
canyons and other sensitive terrain. Enough instability/moisture
exists for storms to persist into southern Utah as well over the
next 1-4 hours. FFG thresholds (around 1 inch/hr) will be readily
exceeded beneath the most dominant storms.

Models/CAMs suggest that the ongoing activity will continue to
drift northwestward while continuing heavy rainfall potential
through at least 02Z/8p mountain. Thereafter, storms (and flash
flood potential) should undergo a weakening/downward trend due to
loss of daytime heating and nocturnal boundary layer stabilization.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9I1iEIFOgDjvV_LsRJcwrNNdHzlcre_4dSEOGpZDAYBToM5eOjHEVxJMpnBx6TTPQhXU1rgUegI3T24IKyy6WKDQkVk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38771271 38751148 37861046 36930916 36440768
35290728 33660755 32870815 32540955 33321215
35511393 38031374

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 22:10:56

AWUS01 KWNH 282210
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-290409-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0882
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
610 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey,
southern New York State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282209Z - 290409Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues for the northern
Mid-Atlantic into southern New York State.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorm continue to migrate slowly eastward/northeastward across the discussion area. Latest radar
depicts a couple of dominant storm modes: 1) a linear complex
approaching southeastern Pennsylvania extending from near Reading
to near Oxford and Bel Air, MD and 2) more scattered cells and
mergers occurring from Reading northeastward toward New Brunswick,
NJ. The storms remain in a favorable environment for heavy
rainfall, with modest southwesterly steering flow aloft promoting
slow storm motions and nearly 2 inch PW/1500 J/kg MLCAPE promoting
heavy rainfall beneath the storms. 25 kt low-level flow and
ascent aloft from approaching mid-level shortwave troughs also
appear supportive of ongoing convection continuing for another few
hours.

Models/obs all favor slow eastward progression of ongoing
thunderstorm activity. Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates will occur
on a scattered basis, and local 3 inch/hr amounts are possible on
an isolated basis. These rates are likely to cause flash flooding
at times in several areas, with particular concern in urban and
flood-sensitive areas from Philadelphia northeastward to New York
City metros and areas near Reading, Allentown, and Easton. Storms
may reach the eastern parts of the discussion area (eastern NJ and
vicinity) by 03Z/11p eastern or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8lDsdnFv3qAzmZuefTs11MB1ElYbeyhszMvcyoE4fd1gCH1dxn_wsPKNGq5IsbnqFCTxqVv6Dc59O0Xjgga1jjZJ1zI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41667375 41037270 39777396 39157465 39657565
39857657 40367652 41057570 41597511

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 00:35:36

AWUS01 KWNH 290035
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-290433-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0883
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
834 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...eastern Colorado, western Kansas, southwestern
Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290033Z - 290433Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms continue to migrate slowly
southeastward across the central High Plains. Isolated to
scattered flash flood potential exists.

Discussion...Earlier convection across the High Plains of Colorado
and adjacent areas of southwestern Nebraska have begun the process
of congealing into forward-propagating clusters while migrating
southeastward through the discussion area. Satellite
representation of this activity remains impressive, which isn't
surprising given steep mid-level lapse rates (~7C/km) supporting
intense updrafts. Spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates were noted over
the past hour (per MRMS) east of Pueblo and from near Akron/Yuma
south to I-70 in eastern Colorado. These rates were locally
exceeding FFG, and spotty flash flood impacts remain possible with
this activity. Additional storms in southwestern Nebraska (near
Oshkosh) were also producing spotty 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates that
were approaching FFG locally.

Ongoing flash flood potential should continue on an isolated to
scattered basis as these storms move eastward. Upscale growth
into forward-propagating clusters is underway and should help
storms persist eastward to at least the CO/KS border and portions
of far western Kansas. At some point though, hostile upper-level
conditions (around -3C temps at 500mb in SW KS) may work against
persistence of storms on a widespread basis especially east of US
83. Flash flood potential should gradually decrease with eastward
extent in tandem with any lessening of convective coverage.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4oEH13NSh80y-ezULd0OwDASkTeg8D2iy4W0zCOxcgcyCbqyWpzoT7RmJmJTRiixngQkq5he3qSg3TW14pvKUx3-qoE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41340188 40950108 39880079 38390118 37290416
38420543 39440483 41080355

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 04:28:26

AWUS01 KWNH 290428
FFGMPD
MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-290930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0884
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1226 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...eastern NY/NJ, Long Island into southern New
England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290425Z - 290930Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact
portions of eastern NY/NJ, Long Island into southern New England
over the next 4-5 hours. Training and repeating rounds of heavy
rain are likely to result in flash flooding with 2 to 4 inches of
rain (locally higher) through 10Z (6 AM EDT).

Discussion...GOES East water vapor and area radar imagery at 04Z
showed a number of low to mid-level vorticity maxima over southern
NY into NJ, located just ahead of a mid-level trough axis that
extended southward through central NY into eastern PA and southern
NJ. These mesoscale circulations were slow moving and associated
with locally enhanced moisture convergence and areas of heavy
rain. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall has peaked in the 1-2 inch
range since 01Z over portions of NJ into southern NY with a number
of flash flood warnings ongoing across the region. The environment
over the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England was
characterized by weak MLCAPE of <1000 J/kg and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7
inches (04Z SPC mesoanalysis and 00Z OKX sounding)

The larger scale mid-level trough axis is forecast by the RAP to
slowly shift eastward over the next 6 hours with a more pronounced
mid-level vorticity over southern NJ expected to advance more
toward the northeast. Out ahead of these mid-level features will
be ~20-30 kt of 925-850 mb southerly flow which will feed from
locally higher moisture/instability just off of the East Coast.
Development of showers/thunderstorms are expected near the NJ
coast and south of Long Island, with northward translation into
the overnight. The lower level winds will promote areas of
training and repeating rounds of heavy rain given mean steering
flow from south to north of 10-20 kt, with even slower mean flow
over the Catskills and lower Hudson Valley. The environment will
be supportive of continued peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
(locally higher) which should contribute to a localized rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher) through 10Z (6 AM EDT)
due to the slow movement of heavy rain cores. Areas of flash
flooding will continue to be likely, especially where heavy
rainfall has already occurred over the past 12 hours and with any
overlap of urban locations or sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5twPvAEEeWxR_Ss9TqWj7C0P-haIs27IrHk2RVJkfEf0DYwJ0iTIfswDVs-OImcXyfSgAvN3KQi9ZRcbbJ99RQYmqws$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43787375 43637323 43287303 42397282 41617244
40947224 40087276 39677350 39657423 40307419
41117426 41757493 42437504 43007453 43647403

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 07:19:22

AWUS01 KWNH 290719
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-291230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0885
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...southern NE into northern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290716Z - 291230Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms will pose a risk of flash
flooding to portions of southern NE and northern KS through 13Z.
Hourly rain may exceed 2 inches on an isolated basis with storm
totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher).

DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the last 45 minutes ending at 0645Z
showed the development of slow moving cluster of thunderstorms
over southwestern NE, on either side of I-80 between North Platte
and Lexington. Additional, more isolated convection has also
formed ESE of this region over southern NE, as far east as US 77.
This development appears to be related to a strengthening low
level jet represented by 25-30 kt of southerly 850 mb flow noted
in the KDDC VAD wind profile. The cells are likely rooted just
above 850 mb per RAP analysis soundings, overrunning a
subtle/shallow surface front analyzed near the KS/OK border, and a
remnant west-east oriented rain-cooled boundary near the southern
NE border. A more prominent outflow boundary was noted to be
advancing eastward across western KS, related to weakening
convection near the southern CO/KS border.

The low level jet is likely near peak strength according to RAP
forecasts, but some veering of the low level flow is forecast over
east-central KS through 12Z. Continued isentropic lift atop the
leading edge of warmer air to the south should continue some
degree of mostly disorganized elevated convection over southern
NE/northern KS through the remainder of the night. Additional
development and increasing coverage of cells is expected into
northern KS, southeast of ongoing activity in southwestern NE
later in the night. Despite the expectation of disorganized cells,
much of NE into northern KS is caught within a weakness of the
deeper layer mean flow. 0-6 km AGL mean layer winds are less than
10 kt area wide and even less than 5 kt in a few locations. This
should contribute to slow cell movement with heavy rain rates
given PW values ranged from 1.9 to 2.1 inches (00Z area soundings
and SPC mesoanalysis data from 07Z). Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches and storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher
rates/totals possible) can be expected through 13Z. While coverage
of these higher amounts is uncertain, current thinking is that
they should be widely scattered in nature. Flash flooding may
develop as a result of localized heavy rain rates.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!657IbYNK7Nw4UaJIrv_cXJQC1kWKt860Zx6gduOKcQG--wl-QmttwGKGR5ikW7dFFafSVu7XJsyBgSTvOCegWx90g4g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41310015 41239851 40699706 39979624 39419599
38869619 38709682 38879751 39379870 39810044
40490090 41090079

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 09:44:36

AWUS01 KWNH 290944
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-291515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0886
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
543 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...Long Island, far northern NJ into eastern NY and
southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290942Z - 291515Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will continue to
produce areas of flash flooding across eastern NY into southern
New England and Long Island this morning. Slow moving areas of
heavy rain are expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of
rain in some locations through 15Z (11 AM EDT).

Discussion...Area radar imagery at 0915Z showed a slow moving
corridor of heavy rain impacting the Hudson Valley containing
observed hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher). Farther
south, another axis of heavy rain was slowly pivoting east across
central Suffolk County into western CT. Despite weak instability
of about 500 J/kg or less, the region remained in a favorable
environment for heavy rain, positioned just ahead of a slow moving
low aloft with numerous mid-level vortices helping to focus
locally higher rainfall rates over inland locations. A surface/850
mb low has become rather well defined about 25 miles south of
Farmingdale, with 25-35 kt of southerly to south-southeasterly
925-850 mb flow transporting PWs of 1.7 to 2.0 inches across Long
Island into southwestern CT and eastern NY. Similarly oriented low
level and deeper layer steering flow has promoted training and
repeating rounds of heavy rain beneath diffluent and divergent
flow just east of the upper low over northeastern PA.

Short term forecasts from the RAP show the 850 mb low slowly
tracking north over the next 6 hours with the low level moisture
transport axis to its east pivoting eastward across Long Island
into southern New England. By 15Z, the low should be over
southwestern CT with low level southeasterly to easterly winds
across southern New England converging into a deformation zone
along the eastern NY border with CT/MA. It is here that the
highest additional rainfall totals may occur with slow moving
hourly rainfall values of 1 to 2+ inches over multiple hours.
While a single location may not see 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall
continuously, the eastern NY into southwestern New England region
will be in a favorable location for periodic occurrences of higher
rainfall intensities. Terrain influences may factor into flash
flood severity. Given locally heavy rain across eastern NY into
portions of New England over the past 24-28 hours, flash flooding
could be locally significant this morning. Areas of flash flooding
will continue to be likely this morning with likely disruptions to
the morning commute and across locations of sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!53oRGEAzwKTiMXg4sVjZ6d1bCVigzFVJF2BwfOyZEeQvHfXLBdHk2TGzFL75Mct5aXbLKiRryuQsi9lkrYIMljJsm5o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44117359 43967308 43607279 43027248 41957166
41337131 40937158 40667220 40467347 40657387
41177437 42237467 43407457 43937418

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 19:11:48

AWUS01 KWNH 031911
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-040030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0934
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031908Z - 040030Z

SUMMARY...The potential for an additional 1 to 2 inches (spot max
of 3 inches) will maintain at least an isolated flash flood threat
across New England through about 00Z. Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches is expected with the threat ending from west to east into
the evening.

DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery across the Northeast over the
past 3 hours showed weakening associated with
showers/thunderstorms over southeastern New England, while new shower/thunderstorm development was underway to the west. 1845Z
radar imagery showed a narrow axis of higher reflectivity
extending along the VT/NH border into western MA and along the
NY/CT border, just ahead of a cold front. The 18Z SPC mesoanalysis
showed MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg in place from CT into central MA,
VT/NH and western ME along with PWs that increased from 1.8 inches
near the cold front to about 2.3 inches along the coast of
southeastern New England.

The RAP forecasts the cold front to track east through New
England, clearing much of the region by 00Z. This progressive
motion should limit much of flash flood threat over the next 3-5
hours as cells are not likely to remain over any given location
for too long. However, portions of southern VT/NH into central and
western MA/CT have lowered flash flood guidance values of about 1
inch or less in an hour. Hourly flash flood guidance of up to 2
inches or higher is in place for the remaining portions of New
England. There is some potential for line segments to push out
ahead more quickly than portions to the south, setting up
alignment with the mean southwesterly steering flow and supporting
brief training. This would allow for hourly rainfall totals of 1-2
inches and potential for flash flooding. Through 00Z, additional
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected for portions of New England,
with a spot maximum total up to 3 inches possible. Isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding may occur through
about 00Z, at which point the deeper moisture should have moved
out of most of the region, ending the flash flood threat.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8m6y-5s-KMrEIJYgKSV_6Y4JCm22GxxzPZBH7iwMoUriHB6PAy7FRT1Rq5B5_ES1sj24Ax82Mt8aBJyt8cvndUEur3Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45797017 45686954 45196932 44116939 42537013
41457126 41117280 41127343 41367365 42107333
43427227 45127122 45647069

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 21:05:26

AWUS01 KWNH 032105
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0935
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern New Mexico and Southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032103Z - 040200Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms have formed across portions of
southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. These storms
could produce up to 1.5 inch/hour rainfall rates over flood-prone
areas, which could lead to flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Storms associated with the ongoing summer monsoon
have developed over southwestern New Mexico and southeastern
Arizona this afternoon. These storms have formed over
flood-sensitive areas, especially local burn scars and slot
canyons. Flash flooding will be possible where heavy rains occur
over those flood-sensitive areas.

SPC Mesoanalysis shows PWATs over portions of southern Arizona
west of Nogales over 1.5 inches, with over an inch PWATs over all
but far northern portions of the discussion area. The storms have
a history of producing rainfall rates over an inch per hour. Given
the daily storms that have formed and tracked over these flood
sensitive areas over the past several days, soils remain sensitive
to additional rainfall. Instability values in the area are between
1,000 and 2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, except along the immediate Mexican
border areas from Nogales east, where instability is a bit higher
than 2,000 J/kg. This instability should more than supper
additional thunderstorm development over these areas of extreme
southeastern Arizona where 1-hr FFG values are between 1 and 1.5
inches.

CAMs guidance suggests the storms will continue forming in
clusters and individual cells across the discussion area for the
rest of the afternoon. The typical waning of thunderstorm activity
with the loss of daytime heating will once again end the flash
flooding threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-WRbvv-GAjG7YOH51iopfmmdSS-uSS8mn8UN0ast7EmUUtyfOT3rMBYeZZG46zbPZ73Hg0ZzvZFGDmTaxC1dX4LzzjI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34470879 34340773 34120703 33320752 32570773
31930831 31330845 31321129 31771255 32551187
32931130 33181092 33671069 34061052 34231069
34421008

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 21:41:36

AWUS01 KWNH 032141
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0936
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032139Z - 040300Z

SUMMARY...A few clusters of storms developing just inland from the
coast of the Carolinas have a history of producing rainfall rates
to 3 inches/hour. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms have developed along the sea
breeze front in the coastal Carolinas this afternoon. These storms
have a history of producing rainfall rates to 3 inches per hour
based on radar estimates. FFGs are generally between 2 and 3
inches per hour, so these storms have been at times exceeding
those values, so flash flooding is possible. The areas where these
values have been the most greatly exceeded is where cell mergers
with the clusters have resulted in abnormally long periods of
heavy rain, so most areas have stayed below these FFG thresholds
so far. However, given much of the coast is urbanized to some
extent, local flash flooding thresholds could be lower.

This area has been hit repeatedly over the past few days with
afternoon thunderstorms, so NASA Sport imagery shows surface soils
are significantly wetter than normal in some spots.
Meteorologically, the storms are forming ahead of a shortwave
trough over the Southeast, with a front stuck near the mountains.
The primary forcing for these storms is sea breeze and frictional
convergence due to southerly winds along the coast. As on past
days, PWATs are very high, generally between 2.2 and 2.4 inches
from SPC Mesoanalysis, leading to MUCAPE values between 2,000 and
3,000 J/kg. These factors should continue to support additional
thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

CAMs guidance shows most of the strongest storm activity staying
off the coast, which has not been the case so far. Meanwhile, most
of them showing the current convection, all of them underdone,
pretty quickly dissipating over the next couple hours. Seeing no
reason why the storms should largely dissipate into showers, have
opted towards a persistence forecast in this area considering the
pattern over the past several days has supported it. Urban and
small stream flash flooding is possible in areas further inland
such as Augusta and Columbia where more widely scattered, but
nonetheless heavy rain capable storms have been forming.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_fFXq7LjF9IOcOzpHpfLx_yTUAN2NJ1yRbowptvwVgTaSP1srLYNmWqXT70lmCXzFpxoHcPJdQXDG2xnpBXn_1Kr68g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35107868 34937793 34717635 32477966 32048079
32338106 32598126 32998172 33378213 33708245
33978191 34538089 34917962

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 15:16:18

AWUS01 KWNH 041516
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-042114-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0937
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1115 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of Georgia, far southwestern North
Carolina, far southeastern Tennessee, and upstate South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041514Z - 042114Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with isolated/localized flash flood
potential will gradually increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon hours (21Z/5p eastern).

Discussion...Deep convection has recently materialized over/near
the Atlanta area, with more isolated activity noted across
northern Georgia and the Chattanooga, TN area. The storms were
developing beneath a nearly stationary upper low centered over
northern GA, with thermodynamic characteristics (1500 J/kg MLCAPE,
1.8 inch PW values) supporting heavy rainfall with the developing
activity. Abundant towering cumulus via satellite imagery
suggests that convection will gradually increase in coverage over
the next couple hours, with areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
becoming common -- primary due to very weak steering flow aloft
and slow convective cell movement.

Models/CAMS also support the expected evolution of this activity
(increasing convective coverage). Hourly FFG thresholds are
relatively high across central GA (around 2+ inch/hr), but
decrease with northward extent into southeastern TN and the
southern Appalachians where 1.5 inch/hr is more common. Flash
flood potential will be slightly higher where lower FFG thresholds
are present, while urban excessive runoff cannot be ruled out
(particularly near Atlanta Metro).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7KADVSQMqNOo7DiGOG1tAX2qJFF5Ue0jt0Teaxk2Rp6lkfvbqXNzq09NVqQkZRFAUYlVfBTNxxGQ3lMpdVUD_SX45lc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35978289 35098231 33388299 32918494 34578545
35568472

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 02:18:16

AWUS01 KWNH 020218
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-020800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0921
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1016 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KY...Eastern TN...Northern GA...Northeast
AL... Western NC, Upstate SC and Far Western VA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020220Z - 020800Z

SUMMARY...Increasing deep layer forcing should maintain convective
activity in a narrowing warm sector across the Cumberland Plateau.
Ample deep layer moisture and flux convergence will allow for up
to 2"/hr rates and multiple lines may allow for repeating random
intersections for spots of 2-4" totals across increasingly complex
terrain. Localized flash flooding remains possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows classic elongating deep layer
cyclone over the Midwest with impressive mid-level dry slot across
Middle-TN into central KY as jet speed max is starting to round
the base of the elongated SW to NE deeper layer cyclone. This
will help direct circulation FGEN along the advancing cold front
as noted by trend of continued convective development along the
length from NE KY across eastern Middle TN into northern AL and
east-central MS. Pre-frontal warm sector clusters also exist
given solid surface to mid-level moisture flux confluence across
NE AL/N GA into eastern TN with the southwest slopes of the
Appalachians further compressing the zone for increased localized
convergence for convective initiation. As such Regional RADAR
mosaic denotes a few bands of cells advancing eastward into slower moving/banked up cells (Monroe to Fannin to Lumpkin counties).

Total PWats are reaching 2-2.25" in a narrow band in the warm
conveyor belt up through eastern KY/SW WV. Given steepening lapse
rates aloft due to mid-level drying, the instability axis remains
west of the moisture with 1500-2250 J/kg
of MLCAPE to support vigorous updraft strength and enhanced
moisture flux. As such, cells will have capability of 2-2.25"/hr
rates and while generally progressive, a few cells along the lower
slopes as well as multiple lines, may allow for increased
residency and/or repeating to support localized 2-4" totals
through the overnight period.

FFG values across the area are generally 1-1.5"/hr in E KY/TN
increasing to 1.5-2" into N GA with another minimum near
Birmingham and the far southwestern foothills of the Appalachians
in NE AL; while 3 hr FFG are 1.5-3". This suggests a solid
potential for localized exceedance of flash flooding both in
initial hour but also with those random intersections of repeating
across the area.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9UXTcUzxhzzfXayN4pQggGbYd6plGQ9JAgmuImMx8xEqtQnVvEt35D5lcAc8GbH-auTOeB9bPYb2J40zUXSiLNgb5F0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37918368 37908319 37608266 37018265 36288273
35968273 36008186 35928155 35468174 34608308
34068390 33258557 33088676 33388743 33998726
34338701 35178596 36108500 36678468 37248427

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 04:26:56

AWUS01 KWNH 020426
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-020900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0922
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1225 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Slopes of Applachians of Upstate SC...
Western NC...Southwest VA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020425Z - 020900Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing significant flash flooding likely to continue
and expand in coverage along the eastern upslope regions of the
Southern Appalachians. Reports of 5-7" have already occurred while
other focused cores are reaching 3"+.

DISCUSSION...Hi-Res CAMs have been persistent in weakening
convection along the eastern upslope region of the Appalachians
from Western NC into SW VA for the last few cycles as the warm air
deepens and leading edge of moisture flux convergence reaches the
upper heights of the terrain with weakening instability and wind
fields veering in the forecast guidance. However, surface
observations continue to show southeasterly surface and southerly
925-850mb winds in the VWP network while still having 3-5 degrees
of dew-point depressions, all while moisture flux through depth
and surface Tds continue to slowly rise.

RAP analysis shows 500-750mb of uncapped MLCAPE along the upslope
region and GOES-E 3.9um animation depict continued convective
vigor/pulsing rather than increased glaciation of cloud tops.
CIRA LPW shows surface to 850mb larger remains above .8" with slow
increase at 850-700mb layer toward .6" and overall totals nearing
2" along the lower slopes and with VWP increasing in the wake of
the warm front toward 20-25kts; moisture flux will continue to
support increasing rainfall rates within the shallow convection.

The worst convective area had been near Mount Airy/Pilot Mountain
where RADAR appears to have been overestimating the rates
significantly from KRNK but observations of 2-2.5"/hr for a few
hours has resulted in localized 5-7" totals in the last 2-3hrs
resulting in a significant flash flooding signal. While MRMS
Flash is likely overestimated due to the inflated rates, there is
a broadening area of near 1000 cfs/sq. mi indicative of
significant flash flooding especially given complex terrain. This
cell had had a longer life than other convective cells, but
coverage in 3.9um/10.3um IR imagery in W NC continues to slightly
increase with observations starting to reach 2-3" totals.

RAP forecast has been a bit more realistic in maintaining
convective/rainfall capabilities compared to the HRRR which tends
to dissipate convection too quickly in a reducing instability
environment; so this suggests capability for continued convective
activity through the early morning is more probable and spots of
add'l 2-4"+ remain likely through the overnight period from W NC
across SW to West-central VA eastern slopes of the Appalachians,
especially as shortwave energy continues to lift northeastward
along and west of the Appalachians maintaining very moist upslope
conditions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8TVUXo-SOUbr_DU9M_9IAxo2nMpxSrtv8dWP9J9gocAKm09QXZFRaGfPufocPWKspuXhZ3JmAtxAZHjI0hlk6UJJk0M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37897963 37607940 36957957 36188055 35198192
34898233 34738282 34788326 35108343 35598291
36328180 36918102 37718028

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 10:02:40

AWUS01 KWNH 021002
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-021500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0923
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
601 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Western PA...Central to Northern WV... Adj.
Eastern OH...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021000Z - 021500Z

SUMMARY...Increasing scattered convection with potential for
multiple rounds of storms may result in localized incident(s) of
flash flooding given rates of 1-1.5"/hr and 1.5-2.5" totals by
late morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows elongating positive tilt
mid-level trough/occluded surface low over the lower Ohio Valley
with a broadening dry slot across much of Ohio and warm conveyor
belt narrowing out of the Cumberland Plateau into the Upper Ohio
River Valley. CIRA LPW shows band of enhanced moisture from
surface to 500mb across W PA, WV into far eastern KY but also a
connecting bridge of surface to 700mb moisture out of the
Mid-Atlantic (from the eastern Atlantic) trying to over-top the
peak of the Appalachian chain. A subtle shortwave can be seen
near the Cumberland Gap of SE KY/W VA with downstream short-wave
ridging associating with expanding divergent mid to upper-level
flow across WV. While heating is clearly a problem overnight, the
warm conveyor still has some modest low-level remaining warm air
and steepening lapse rates from drying aloft just west of the warm
conveyor, there is a narrow axis of increasing instability with
MUCAPE values increasing 200-400 J/kg over the last 3 hours across
the upper-Ohio Valley into 750-1000 J/kg range.

A SW to NE confluence axis along and north of the warm front still
south across E KY/W VA, is isentropically ascending with a weak
convergence toward the western branch resulting in some weak but
sufficient low-level moisture convergence. Combined with the
expanding divergence aloft, shallow thunderstorms have been
expanding across the Stovepipe of WV into W PA, with further
scattered development closer to the surface front in SW WV. Given
deep layer moisture and TPW toward 2", increasing efficiency is
expected with the shallow cells with rain rates increasing above
1"/hr with a spot or two of 1.25-1.5"/hr becoming possible over
the next few hours. Forward propagation may limit overall totals
to a similar range; however, the upstream environment will likely
support scattered development for possible repeating. As such,
isolated spots of 1.5-2.5" totals are possible through morning
hours; with very slow eastward progression of the occluded/cold
front and therefore warm conveyor belt toward the spine of the
Appalachians.

Hydrologically, complex terrain makes hourly FFG values in 1-1.5"
and between 2-2.5" for 3hrs which is at the threshold of
exceedance suggesting isolated to widely scattered incident or two
of flash flooding remain possible this morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_4Oo8vpTeM5WzOrtsn-bQ48tbGW6g_nhZO8ptgTIY_dVukj2WAVc8MMPMjIZvuUgWueRT9gjb4xlUevouL5CfqsChwM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41947842 41647745 40807778 40137842 39347921
38618018 38058120 38358191 39068185 40308098
41138022 41757929

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 14:16:32

AWUS01 KWNH 021416
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-021900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0924
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1014 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...FL Panhandle...Far Southwest GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021414Z - 021900Z

SUMMARY...Locally concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms
with high rainfall rates may support some areas of flash flooding
going through mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows rapidly cooling
convective tops across portions of the FL Panhandle as showers and thunderstorms are seen expanding in coverage and gradually
advancing off to the east-northeast. The activity is focused
within a confluent low-level flow regime southeast of a cold front
slowly dropping into the Southeast U.S.

The airmass across the northeast Gulf Coast region is very moist
and unstable with MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg, and PWs near
2.25 inches. Modestly divergent flow aloft coupled with at least a
weak corridor of moisture convergence should tend to support this
convective activity maintaining itself in the near-term which is
supported by the latest HRRR and RRFS solutions.

Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour will be likely with the
stronger storms given the level of moisture and instability that
is in place, and with slow cell-motions and potentially some
occasional cell-training, some localized 3 to 5 inch rainfall
totals will be possible through mid-afternoon.

The activity at least for the next few hours will tend to largely
be impacting areas of the FL Panhandle, but some of this
convection may edge into far southwest GA by early this afternoon.
Given the high rainfall rates and localized storm potential, some
areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_TT-dq-d9BbE60sg72oP88u6TOXns3S56jTxrI-VekllNcWmFDAEt-kwWWGSPfKs_R6re3MJfwdLnXlYNhI2br7fScs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31308431 31128358 30628344 30228382 29818464
29788546 30008592 30428619 30708592 31098521

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 16:32:40

AWUS01 KWNH 021632
FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-022230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0925
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Interior of the Central Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021630Z - 022230Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
very high rainfall rates over 2 inches/hour may result in an urban
flash flood threat going through the afternoon hours. This will
include areas near I-95 from northern VA into southeast PA.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with radar data shows a cluster of thunderstorms with very high
rainfall rates tending to gain organization and coverage to the
southwest of Washington D.C. and very close to Fredericksburg, VA.
This convective cluster is exhibiting some weak mesocyclone
tendencies as it advances off to the north-northeast.

3-hour MUCAPE differentials confirm an uptick in instability
across northern VA on up through central MD and into southeast PA,
with the nose of 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE magnitudes noted. This
coincides with the nose of high PWs, with values locally exceeding
2 inches. This environment will be highly conducive for the
ongoing convection to sustain itself and locally expand in
coverage as differential heating along the I-95 corridor helps to
tighten and locally strengthen the instability gradient. Visible
satellite images show substantial solar insolation taking place
across southern MD up through far northeast MD and into southeast
PA to support this.

The thermodynamic environment favors extreme rainfall rate
potential with the 12Z RAOB data from KIAD and KRNK showing a
substantial moisture and elevated WCL depths advancing up across
the Mid-Atlantic. The instability uptick along with the moisture
will support rainfall rates locally exceeding 2 inches/hour with
the organizing areas of showers and thunderstorms.

The latest hires CAMs are not doing well in handling the ongoing
convective activity, but based on the latest satellite and radar
trends, some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall swaths will be
possible where these organizing convective clusters focus and
locally train over the same area. Already the convection has some
linear segments aligned with the deeper layer south-southwest flow
to favor cell-training.

The setup going through through the afternoon hours will support
an urban flash flood near and adjacent to the I-95 corridor from
Washington D.C. through Baltimore and at least some areas of
southeast PA from Lancaster on down to Philadelphia.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-v197v5c8mQZhnWCjf1L5JTPIcx9U0kE6sPj3HR6P42aGG4gtqp-W6P6WklR_Ll5dsZAdCH3ow7ZxVrW1-4QBBCY4Kg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 31308431 31128358 30628344 30228382 29818464
29788546 30008592 30428619 30708592 31098521

40667559 40407508 39797514 38687577 37937644
37497705 37497785 37907827 38797805 39497764
40297689 40627627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 16:58:04

AWUS01 KWNH 021657
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-022230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0925
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Interior of the Central Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021630Z - 022230Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
very high rainfall rates over 2 inches/hour may result in an urban
flash flood threat going through the afternoon hours. This will
include areas near I-95 from northern VA into southeast PA.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with radar data shows a cluster of thunderstorms with very high
rainfall rates tending to gain organization and coverage to the
southwest of Washington D.C. and very close to Fredericksburg, VA.
This convective cluster is exhibiting some weak mesocyclone
tendencies as it advances off to the north-northeast.

3-hour MUCAPE differentials confirm an uptick in instability
across northern VA on up through central MD and into southeast PA,
with the nose of 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE magnitudes noted. This
coincides with the nose of high PWs, with values locally exceeding
2 inches. This environment will be highly conducive for the
ongoing convection to sustain itself and locally expand in
coverage as differential heating along the I-95 corridor helps to
tighten and locally strengthen the instability gradient. Visible
satellite images show substantial solar insolation taking place
across southern MD up through far northeast MD and into southeast
PA to support this.

The thermodynamic environment favors extreme rainfall rate
potential with the 12Z RAOB data from KIAD and KRNK showing a
substantial moisture and elevated WCL depths advancing up across
the Mid-Atlantic. The instability uptick along with the moisture
will support rainfall rates locally exceeding 2 inches/hour with
the organizing areas of showers and thunderstorms.

The latest hires CAMs are not doing well in handling the ongoing
convective activity, but based on the latest satellite and radar
trends, some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall swaths will be
possible where these organizing convective clusters focus and
locally train over the same area. Already the convection has some
linear segments aligned with the deeper layer south-southwest flow
to favor cell-training.

The setup going through through the afternoon hours will support
an urban flash flood near and adjacent to the I-95 corridor from
Washington D.C. through Baltimore and at least some areas of
southeast PA from Lancaster on down to Philadelphia.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Zts2kAcClk5O79S3GkBg4QnWNzlvx4wxEqnKe8OG7vSEVrzc13Tmcq2_mPJy8dxgD9SXeDY0u7FoKG0dYDTArJPvw0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40667559 40407508 39797514 38687577 37937644
37497705 37497785 37907827 38797805 39497764
40297689 40627627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 17:28:18

AWUS01 KWNH 021728
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-022315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0926
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper OH Valley...Lower Great
Lakes...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021726Z - 022315Z

SUMMARY...Expanding coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will foster some areas of flash flooding going through the
afternoon and early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E GeoColor visible satellite imagery
along with radar data shows developing and gradually expanding
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Upper OH
Valley, Lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. This is being
facilitated by the presence of a deep layer trough/closed low
which is interacting with a destabilizing boundary layer and
plenty of moisture.

MLCAPE values have risen to 1000 to 1500 J/kg locally, and
additional solar insolation, especially across the Upper OH
Valley, should drive an uptick in this instability over the next
few hours. PWs are locally on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches, and
this coupled with the instability will favor convective cells
capable of producing 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates.

Over the next few hours, expanding clusters of convection are
expected which will be capable of some cell-training given
alignment of the convection with the deeper layer steering flow.

The latest hires model guidance supports some localized swath of 2
to 4+ inches of rain going through the afternoon and early evening
hours. The greatest potential for this based on the 12Z HREF/REFS
guidance should generally be across western PA and into western NY
where the 3-hour FFG exceedance probabilities are also on the
order of 30 to 50+ percent.

Given locally moist/sensitive antecedent conditions, the high
rainfall rates and storm total potential will likely foster some
areas of flash flooding. This will also include locally some urban
flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-OitDjaBPOy4oBQyMN9r0vtsnZkPKnmT0O4zNextPxxLE3hCn8Tev1pQvwNsRyUcuQFEimsnckG0A7aqvgwKWFILIZU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...MRX... PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43727704 43627621 43217546 42667534 41647584
39887847 38677972 37218126 36648245 36688351
37168363 37878313 39088246 39888216 40598246
41038302 41458329 41858314 42258218 42588060
42987966 43577872

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 18:02:22

AWUS01 KWNH 021802
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0927
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern Georgia into South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021800Z - 030000Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms over central Georgia are likely to
move over hard hit areas of eastern Georgia and South Carolina,
likely causing renewed flash flooding. There's a more conditional
flash flooding threat into southwestern Georgia and far
southeastern Alabama.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms have formed over central Georgia
this afternoon. These storms have a history of producing rainfall
rates over 3 inches per hour. Plentiful moisture is in place both
where the storms are now over Georgia and into central South
Carolina as well. SPC Mesoanalysis shows instability values from
2,500 J/kg near the NC/SC border to near 4,000 J/kg near where the
storms are now in Georgia. A strong cold front to the west is
providing ample forcing for the storms, with deep tropical
moisture being drawn northward ahead of the front over Georgia and
South Carolina to the tune of PWATs between 2.2 and 2.4 inches.
Thus, these storms have ample moisture, instability, and forcing
to not only persist on their journey northeastward up the front,
but thrive.

CAMs guidance shows the storms likely consolidating as they
approach the GA/SC border into a line along the advancing cold
front to the west, with clusters moving ahead of the line. This
could lead to areas seeing prolonged durations of heavy rainfall
through this afternoon from Augusta northeastward to near
Charlotte. The good news is guidance shows that by the 00Z ending
of this discussion, the storms should be progressive enough as
they move into eastern NC and SC that the flood threat should
diminish a bit by then.

Meanwhile, further southwest, additional storms moving into the
eastern Florida Panhandle from the Gulf, and addressed by MPD 924
will continue moving into extreme southeastern Alabama near
Dothan, and then into southwestern Georgia. Soils are a mix of
saturated and dry across southwestern Georgia due to spotty
showers and thunderstorms over the past few days. So the flash
flooding threat for the southern part of the area is more
conditional. Plentiful moisture and instability are in place there
as well, and the cold front is having no trouble advancing to the
Gulf Coast, so there are no obvious reasons that heavy rain will
have any trouble forming in these areas. The flash flooding threat
may therefore be more driven on whether the storms that impact the
area move over soils that are already saturated from prior days'
storms in flooding prone areas.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_8LfoPdM9lNe4CSYin7c1V7xASAqxE847heEYQQC60R7tBHZJw0WGQElniWafWRdHzdy2vOP93nmDLBkAirFHVsk6H4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35408063 34228026 33808036 32858119 32278176
31978204 31648265 30928297 30808331 31148337
31298372 31398443 31318477 31218517 31048565
31508560 31988535 32358502 33228410 33458376
33798333 34208261 34488220 34768187 35098145
35358117

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 22:08:12

AWUS01 KWNH 022208
FFGMPD
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-030200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0928
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
606 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...I-95 Corridor of Virginia and Maryland

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022206Z - 030200Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of storms moving north up I-95 could
cause flash flooding, particularly in urban areas for the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of storms that have been moving
north across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon have generally only
been producing rainfall rates to 2 inches per hour. This trend
will continue with a new batch of storms that has passed through
Richmond. Portions of the DC area have seen up to 2 inches of rain
so far today. As the next round of storms moves through,
additional rainfall amounts to 2 inches are possible, as well as
any additional storms developing off to the west which may impact
the urban areas could locally add further to those totals.

Despite the storms, PWATs remain downright tropical across the
Mid-Atlantic with values on SPC Mesoanalysis in a tongue to 2.3
inches extending across much of eastern Virginia and up to the DC
area. PWATs decrease considerably going up the Delaware River past
Wilmington with PWATs in Philly around 1.75 inches. Meanwhile,
instability analysis shows MUCAPE values remaining in the 1,000 to
2,000 J/kg range from about Baltimore south. It's in this area
that where storms move over urban areas such as the DC Metro that
additional flash flooding could occur into the evening. Past
Wilmington, much like PWATs, instability rapidly decreases up
towards Philadelphia.

CAMS guidance shows at least one more round of storms, with
potential for smaller clusters in the meantime, to continue to
track off to the north from the Richmond area towards the DC and
Baltimore metros through 02Z/10pm ET. With up to 2 inch/hour rates
possible with these storms added to the rain that has already
fallen in the area, flash flooding will remain possible.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8EGPEBwE95IbPBoabV2zukiBRaWfC4Pdo7Dbrt55effEhQHjJgP0tr6PQJhjkQ9PhFzusaGch4eEvrOfuMjZdZTs1o8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40227642 40197612 40207598 39827545 39417598
39087637 38577649 38517654 38137694 37607726
37587774 37847815 38307840 39597782 39707786
39877757 40137706

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 23:16:22

AWUS01 KWNH 022316
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-030400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0929
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 022314Z - 030400Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms ahead of a front over the
Great Lakes will continue to produce localized flash flooding
across the Central Appalachians into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A large and dynamic storm system moving into the
central Appalachians this evening continues to produce
thunderstorms ahead of the low center near Erie, PA. A tongue of
instability is noted on SPC Mesoanalysis extending into western
Pennsylvania and western New York. Bulk shear vectors are out of
the southwest at 30 kts. PWATs in the area are generally between
1.5 and 2 inches. This has allowed the clusters of storms to
produce flash flooding along the spine of the Appalachians in
northeastern Pennsylvania, and in widely scattered locations from
Pittsburgh south into West Virginia.

CAMs guidance shows the storms will continue congealing along the
front in northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York over the
next few hours, while more topographically enhanced convection
continues from northeastern Pennsylvania into central New York.
The two areas of storms begin to fill in across the Finger Lakes
region of western New York. FFGs are particularly low along the
spine of the Appalachians from southwest Pennsylvania through
south-central New York and the Catskills. It is in these areas
where continued shower and thunderstorm activity over the next few
hours is expected to continue producing localized flash flooding.
The Finger Lakes region into central New York has a bit higher
FFGs (above 1.5 in/hr), and with a local minimum of rainfall
expected there, flash flooding instances will be much more
isolated there.

Urban and small stream flooding in urban areas including Buffalo
and Scranton are most likely, as well as in flood prone areas
where the topography acts to enhance flash flooding severity.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5tw0MwwdnTs4wMeBYx5nyS5ff4BUcrPL7XW-YN__YwlNYiobnQIiZ359jvQyXZ_MlLODU8s_vsYvhooYD2vT_D6inng$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43477880 43367680 43297647 43197583 42887537
42607507 42237494 41907513 41597528 41327567
40497742 40087842 39067958 38538001 38418024
38648071 39078117 40338054 41558054 42148024

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 02:43:36

AWUS01 KWNH 030243
FFGMPD
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-030830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0930
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1042 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast into Southwest New
England...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030245Z - 030830Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing very efficient tropical showers will be
reinforced with upstream redevelopment through the early overnight
period as warm front lifts into Northeast. Rates of 1.5-2"/hr and
repeating potential (2-3" totals) across Megalopolis urban zone
likely to induce localized flash flooding concerns overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of remaining mid-level
closed low centered over the Ontario Peninsula with a long ribbon
of remaining moisture in the positive tilt trough through the
Cumberland Plateau into northern AL. A slight cyclonic bump and
AMV winds suggests the shortwave is further consolidating before
wobbling northeastward later toward morning. However, this is
directing the very moist southern-stream smaller shortwave
features northeastward along the Atlantic coast with a smaller
wave entering NJ supporting remaining activity that affected
Maryland this evening. RAP analysis suggests much of the
instability has been worked over with a localized minimum of
remaining 500 J/kg of MUCAPE associated with the wave and still
supporting cells capable of a quick 1-1.5" rates totals as they
move through the Delaware River Valley.

Further upstream another wave can be seen across the eastern
Carolinas also lifting north. CIRA LPW denotes a slug of enhanced
850-700mb moisture along and ahead of it; but with upstream flow,
this wave appears to be driving the warm front further north over
the next few hours with surface temps into the upper 70s and low
80s and even greater moisture with Total PWats of 2.25 increasing
to near 2.5"; however, the warm front will lift more traditionally
through LI into southern New England with increased moisture
convergence with warm sector MLCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg helping to
have more surface rooted convection developing and reaching the
area toward 07z. However, elevated convective cores will
translate through ahead of the front with 1-1.5"/hr rates; but the
concern is along the western edge where upstream approach of
height-falls is countered by the strengthening onshore flow from
the southeast. The warm front will effective stall and remain
fairly parallel to the Chesapeake Bay/Delaware River Valley, but
also steepen with solid moisture flux convergence along it. As
such, additional upstream development along/ahead of the southern
stream shortwave will have opportunity for training/repeating.
Instability gradient will be in proximity but overall availability
for stronger updraft strength remains a bit more uncertain.
Nonetheless, even weak tropical showers with increasing 25-30kts
of confluent LLJ flow along the frontal zone with ample deep layer
moisture may support rates of 1.5-2"/hr. However, with the
strengthened low to mid-level southerly flow will increase cell
motions and should reduce residency times. As such, localized
streaks of 2-3" totals can be expected.

The efficiency of the shallow convective showers and proximity to
broad urban zones as well as terrain in NW NJ and into the
Catskills of NY, may be the driving factor for rapid inundation
even though showers may be moving through quickly. As such,
scattered incidents of flash flooding is considered possible
overnight for much of the Megalopolis from Wilmington, DE through
CT/RI.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!62fdmr-g3IpSQ1HUAsF70oH7Czi-WOBORjdkz_cY-jzZSe8SnAS-3XIcmT1id329MMIEsCPyJX5K-p8Vbqd2yTgrKWU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42747324 42717266 42437203 41837141 41607124
41137135 40847212 40447358 39747406 38897498
38807605 39167660 39987639 40847580 41767497
42197462 42597395

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 03:41:46

AWUS01 KWNH 030341
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-030800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0931
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1140 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...South Central Upstate New York...Central to
Northeast Pennsylvania...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030340Z - 030800Z

SUMMARY...Strong dynamics/moisture flux remains but with reduced
instability overall coverage and intensity will be significantly
reducing with time. However, ongoing clusters capable of
additional 1-2" through saturated soils keeps flash flooding risk
possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts upstream 70kt jet streak
rounding the western side of sharpening mid-level closed low.
This will help to concentrated vorticity as it rounds the base of
the trough providing solid dPVA and right entrance broad scale
ascent pattern overnight across Upstate New York into central PA.
As such, LLJ remains solid at 30+kts with upstream/sharpening
trough along mid-level trough and advancing cold front out of
western NY. Given total PWats in the 1.75-2" range any ongoing
cells will remain efficient if convergence remains strong to
overcome the overall stabilizing environment downstream.

A solid cluster with bowing features just east of State College to
Altoona is showing signs of further weakening though there is some upstream/back-building parallel to the mean flow, in addition, it
also has a trajectory toward areas of earlier heavy rainfall that
resulted in broad flash flooding from Lycoming to Broome counties
in PA/NY where FFG values are below 1" even for 3-6hr and hourly
FFG values are less than .5-.75" for much of the stretch,
suggesting any intense rainfall could re-trigger flooding
conditions fairly easily.

Further northwest along the cold front/mid-level trough axis,
there is some remaining 250-600 J/kg of MUCAPE and southwest to
northeast deep layer flow has shown a history of narrow but
elongated banding parallel to the boundary to Cattaragus to
Steuben/Livingston county that allows for 1-1.5"/hr rates and
30-90 minutes of residency for some spots up to 2". Flash
flooding would be highly focused and likely on the lower-end of
impact, but still remains non-zero given overall moisture/dynamic
environment for at least a few more hours. As such, localized
flash flooding remains possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_CKLr9BTtF5ata5ZNfbm1yEtBLPwbah2tdP8GX8uDvGfP9ZOjDRcNLvPAE4QpbS3ZXdw4peHJr03SDlWGor6nPF9dIQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43557667 43277579 43027520 43497448 42967397
42647403 42157462 41367543 40817615 40137711
39997790 40117823 41017782 41477775 41987788
42557832 43057840 43467788

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 07:55:18

AWUS01 KWNH 030754
FFGMPD MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-031400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0932
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern New England...Southeast NY & Long
Island... NJ...Eastern PA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030800Z - 031400Z

SUMMARY...Repeating highly efficient tropical warm showers capable
of 2-2.5"/hr and streaks of additional 2-4"+ along the I-95
Megalopolis corridor likely to maintain flash flooding concerns
through daybreak.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows impressive dynamics with upper-low
over the Lower Great Lakes with solid hints of west to east
vertical tilting of the cyclone with height and and downshear
expanding baroclinic leaf over southeast Canada indicative of the
strengthening as well as eastward shift of the system as a whole.
This has tightened the overall flow and merging of Gulf and
Atlantic moisture streams through the Mid-Atlantic into New
England with fairly unidirectional southwesterly flow from
925-700mb running between 35 and 45kts. This is also expanding
vertically with 3H jet streak along the southeast quadrant of the
upper-low expected to expand toward 100-120kts by 12z with
broadening right entrance ascent pattern along the coastal region.

High theta-E air off the Atlantic, with strengthening flow has
also tightened the instability gradient with spots of 1500-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE across the Delmarva expanding with the high
moisture south of the warm front to over 1000-1250 J/kg in S New
England. Warm conveyor moisture plume gradient is tightening with
the height-falls to the west, but axis remains along the Eastern
Seaboard with 2.25"+ reaching Long Island with up to 2.5" still
further south.

Surface analysis denotes a stronger pressure trof from the lower
Hudson Valley through new Jersey and into the Chesapeake Bay, this
appears to be the old warm front or at least western edge of the
Atlantic stream of moisture and has been (and likely to remain)
the focus of continued low level convergence and convective
development as each southern stream shortwave pulses northward
providing that subtle but sufficient developmental kick. The
ample moisture should allow for efficient heavy rainfall
production, with hourly rates of 2-2.5"/hr. However, cell motions
will likely continue to increase with the strengthening deep layer
flow likely limiting residency of any given core; however, with
these pulses, repeating is highly probable with only a slight
eastward motion due to the parent system's slow eastward march.
As such, streaks of 2-4"+ are continued to be likely along the
I-95 corridor expanding into far SE Maine toward 12-14z. Given
broad urban areas as well as some complex terrain/hills in N NJ/W
MA...there will likely be incidents of flash flooding/rapid
inundation through early morning hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5a07ew_zOOtVkwG04kWzCS4pH72eBQCegKRvXdKHycpt03gfVeSodbF5JCm2glNEg0MWl-bZN_cZE5IPWElFpGWmweU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44246981 43856972 43556990 42967051 42477045
42157072 41407118 40847204 40507361 40217382
39467426 39197489 39597567 40287564 41067492
41657416 43137240 44147057

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 14:34:46

AWUS01 KWNH 031434
FFGMPD MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0933
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...far northern Mid-Atlanitc into Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031432Z - 031900Z

SUMMARY...The threat of flash flooding will continue over far
eastern PA into NJ, southern NY into portions of southern and
central New England into the afternoon. Potential will exist for
an additional 2 to 4+ inches through 19Z before a cold front
begins to end the flash flood threat from west to east.

DISCUSSION...14Z radar imagery showed a broken axis of showers and thunderstorms extending from southern NJ into Long Island and
southeastern New England. An embedded low to mid-level vorticity
axis was located over southern ME with another weaker vorticity
max over southwestern NJ near the eastern shore of the Delaware
Bay, each associated with a relative surge in rainfall intensity,
although the vorticity max over ME is moving into a more stable
environment. Areas of flash flooding were ongoing across the
northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast with MRMS-estimated
rainfall of about 2-4 inches over the past 6-12 hours.

14Z surface observations showed a slow moving cold front extending
from central NY into east-central PA, preceded by impressive
moisture with 2.0 to 2.5 inch PW values from the PA/NJ border into southern/coastal New England, along with roughly 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Aloft, a strengthening 100+ kt jet streak was located over
northern PA into central NY, placing enhanced upper level
divergence over the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New
England.

Areas of flash flooding are likely to continue as waves of heavier
rainfall continue to generate heavy rain over the region with
unidirectional southwesterly flow supporting areas of training at
times. Despite the relatively weak instability, high moisture will
compensate to help support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
(locally higher possible). Some modest strengthening of the upper
level jet streak is expected through the early afternoon but
forward progression of the cold front is expected to mark the
western edge of the flash flood threat as the boundary advances
eastward into the early afternoon. Stripes of an additional 2 to 4
inches of rain (locally higher) are expected to maintain scattered
areas of flash flooding with enhanced impacts over the urban I-95
corridor.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Lx5i9HQx5K-aH9q7PAZnENidIytkeSL_jbTdGHuMVI9gIJOtTFoiLYAPTZehvrp44ssjMFlun44KUU46iuw7MPVaqk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44067091 43877035 43646988 43276952 42776950
41987035 41427092 40867180 40317311 39367363
38927449 38987514 39837551 41177473 43017285
43967160

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 18:12:32

AWUS01 KWNH 311812
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-010010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0905
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...South-Central CO...Central to Northeast NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311810Z - 010010Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing this afternoon will impact the
high terrain of south-central CO down through central and
northeast NM. This will include the Sangre De Cristo Range and
Sacramento Mountains where there will be a threat for burn scar
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery shows
just the early stages of convective initiation across the higher
terrain of the central and southern Rockies, with an emphasis on
the Sangre De Cristo Range and to some extent the Sacramento
Mountains.

Strong diurnal heating and increasing boundary layer instability
near and adjacent to the high terrain will couple with some modest
vort energy near the CO/NM border to help facilitate the
development of thunderstorm activity going through the afternoon
hours. SBCAPE values have locally increased to over 1000 J/kg, but
this will be increasing over the next few hours. PWs across the
region are forecast to increase a bit over the next several hours
as a combination mid-level monsoonal moisture and some
post-frontal low-level east to northeast flow helps to increase
values.

The 12Z HREF/REFS suite of model guidance suggests convection will
initiate over the high terrain and also impact some of the
immediate High Plains over the next several hours. The Sangre De
Cristo Range in particular, and to a lesser extent the Sacramento
Mountains will be the primary targets for the heaviest QPF. This
will be aided by stronger orographic ascent/upslope flow.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with
the strongest and more terrain-focused cells. Localized
persistence of these thunderstorms going through the afternoon
hours will support a potential for some spotty 2 to 3+ inch
rainfall totals.

This will drive a concern in particular for burn scar flash
flooding, and also perhaps for some of the normally dry washes.
Multiple burn scars in the Sangre De Cristo Range, including the
Aspen Acres burn area, along with multi-year burn scars in the
Sacramento Mountains will be at greatest risk for seeing flash
flooding impacts and potential debris flow activity.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-1-hS3HJLWr-UE1vcoTsoogPbY0JV8epD7erzunNE30CdZNha5eEzz_uUnqaXinSnYwdi57XnwA-rNl1l6tBp6CPj_s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39310552 39270461 38090383 36850353 35680324
34870362 34110450 32510507 32250577 32790636
34060675 35170659 36230635 37280679 37900679
38700589

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 19:16:14

AWUS01 KWNH 311915
FFGMPD
MIZ000-312300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0906
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311914Z - 312300Z

SUMMARY...A nearly stationary lake boundary has become the focal
point for a line of showers and thunderstorms. Flash flooding will
be possible as hourly rates exceed 2 in/hr at times.

DISCUSSION...A convergence zone primarily off Lake Michigan has
formed over the Upper Peninsula this afternoon. This has resulted
in a nearly stationary line of storms that has developed from
southeast of Marquette towards the southern Lake Michigan
shoreline, then extends towards Sault Ste. Marie. Radar estimated
rainfall rates with a few of the storms are already exceeding 1.5
inches per hour. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a "bubble" of both higher
instability (2,000 J/kg) and higher PWATs (to 1.8 inches) over the
eastern U.P., so it appears likely that additional convective
development will occur both due to lake convergence and cold pools
through this afternoon.

There is considerable uncertainty further west on the U.P. towards
the Wisconsin border due to less instability, less moisture, and
stratiform rain on the northernmost extent of the comma-head
region of the storm likely restraining much additional instability
from forming, if for no other reason than due to thick cloud
cover. Conversely, cloud cover remains much higher over the
eastern U.P. Thus, despite some CAMs guidance suggesting storms
will develop southwestward towards Wisconsin, that solution
remains highly uncertain.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5UJvGDd-arLjh1VJkPH8Mj41tW0SId1GPj93vRKCnL2TRcZaZll6kLNhDrUZKqsqX_RHEpORASczIuCcwXq51rmo080$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46778493 46558424 46228395 45958387 45918434
45848465 45888559 45888600 45798638 45928681
46048723 46238759 46518751 46588723 46578717
46588667 46738581

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 22:21:56

AWUS01 KWNH 312221
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-010400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0907
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
620 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa & Portions of the Upper Mississippi
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 312220Z - 010400Z

SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of storms will track across eastern
Iowa through the evening. Portions of eastern Iowa were hit with
multiple inches of rain this morning, making them more flood
prone. Flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION... A large vertically stacked low centered over central
Iowa this afternoon will track southeastward towards south-central
Iowa into this evening. Widely scattered storms have developed in
waves/lines across eastern Iowa in the dry slot of the large upper
level low. While this has limited convective coverage so far this
afternoon, as the low wraps up, convection is likely to become
more widespread across eastern Iowa through this evening.

As the low tracks southeastward, much of eastern Iowa is starting
out this afternoon in the warm sector of the storm, allowing
instability in the nose of the warm sector ahead of the low to
spike to between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg based on SPC mesoanalysis.
Moisture was never going to be a concern anywhere around the low
as PWATs this afternoon are around 1.75 inches broadly. Convective
coverage was always the concern.

CAMs guidance suggests the convection ahead of the low will run
into the comma-head region of the low with slowly southward moving
storms. The area of greatest convergence over the next few hours
appears to be around the Cedar Rapids area, which was near where
the heaviest rains fell last night. Thus, it is in this area where
the greatest potential for FFG exceedance exists and therefore
where the greatest potential for renewed flash flooding will be.

As the low continues eastward tonight, nearly steady light rains
may continue to keep any flash flooding going through the
overnight.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7ylZnqdZH1jx1KIPkpRw_XrmI31w2h9fARR7p3dcGaKY5VJQkc4jrjPMj-q7KPX6VeprNYKrjw1_hVHZoEXq5-j_Sy8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43559150 43539096 43439061 43049007 42708972
42338970 41508980 41229044 40579061 40439112
40699158 40739188 40749199 40899226 41169270
41609279 42099264 42329265 42529291 42919330
43489293 43549221

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 00:19:14

AWUS01 KWNH 010018
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-010500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0908
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010016Z - 010500Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms forming along a dying front have
formed within the thermal low over New Mexico. Flash flooding is
likely where the storms impact burn scars and narrow canyons.

DISCUSSION...A dying front draped under a large upper level ridge
aloft with a thermal low typical of summertime in the Southwest
has resulted in numerous thunderstorms that have formed from far
eastern Arizona through much of southern New Mexico to the Texas
Panhandle. The storms have a history of producing 1-2 inch per
hour rates in the strongest cells across southern New Mexico, with
more frequent storms to that intensity with the southward moving
line over eastern New Mexico.

CAMs guidance suggests the storms will continue over southern New
Mexico into this evening, then gradually dissipate with the loss
of solar heating. The most organized convection will be with the
line tracking south down the NM/TX border, with some of the storms
crossing into the western Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile, the storms
over southwestern New Mexico and far eastern Arizona will likely
remain slow-moving, resulting in more localized flash flooding,
but due to the slow movement, may end up producing more rain over
the impacted areas than the storms further east, which are moving
along fast enough to generally limit the time any one area sees
heavy rain. That said, storms forming out ahead of the line across
far western Texas could help keep any heavy rainfall continuing
for a longer period of time in those localized areas.

The greatest threats for flash flooding will be where the storms
impact burn scars, narrow canyons, and any urban areas. Sudden
onset flash flooding could occur in flood prone but normally dry
low-lying areas, and with the loss of daylight, could be some of
the most dangerous.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!52DHHHPWLTzfp8iADbY_ILHX9ml9sKJHcGTw-xhL0ETglHF-Ss9rnh2YaGge2XcFFiUohQp1mcTiCIKZs8Cbbv0NUBo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...LUB...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36600277 36040224 34590209 33360311 32500481
32300519 31930580 31680661 31730677 31710710
31530783 31420844 32100965 33290999 34020929
34580713 35270600 36090418

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 03:57:26

AWUS01 KWNH 010357
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-010900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0909
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1156 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...Southern Wisconsin...Northern &
Central Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010400Z - 010900Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered very slow moving convective
cells capable of 1.5"/hr and spots of 2-3.5" total. Most
locations this will be mainly beneficial due to slower rises, but
intersection with urban locations, especially urban centers along
Lake Michigan suggest possible incidents of flash flooding will
remain possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a classic well defined closed
low cyclone over the Midwest centered in Eastern IA at this time,
though there is a slight imbalance to the overall cyclone as core
of vorticity in shifted along the northwest to western side of the
centroid, about to round southeastward. This will increase dPVA
across northern and central IL and sharpen the deformation zone
though the mid-levels across far northeast IA, southern WI into
northern Lake Michigan with combination of cool conveyor belt and
western branch of the TROWAL/warm conveyor angling back northeast
into the downshear outflow channel aloft. So solid divergence as
the 60kts jet rounds the base of the larger scale trof within the
left exit in S WI/N IL will allow for continued deep layer
moisture convergence and ascent for prolonged moderate showers.

Twenty to 25 kts of southeasterly confluent flow through the
ascent plain also resides in the axis of enhanced moisture with
TPW remaining at or just below 2" so flux convergence remains
solid. While instability is the limiting factor, there is still
some 250-600 J/kg of MUCAPE along and east of the cyclone center
across E IA into N IL to allow for embedded shallow convective
cores with the capability of 1-1.5"/hr rates. Slow, convergent
translation of those cores in the prolonged moderate rain shield
suggest localized 2-3.5" totals over the next few hours.

Further south, due to the rounding vorticity center, low level
flow has backed slightly across NW IL, nearer to the remaining
instability axis where SBCAPEs still remain about 750-1000 J/kg
per RAP analysis through the MS River Valley. As such, a new band
of thunderstorms is developing and slowly advancing eastward into
NW IL. As dPVA increases and low-level flow increases by 5-10kts,
flux convergence may support spots of 1.5-1.7"/hr rates given they
reside at the best divergence aloft north of the jet streak, spots
of 2-3.5" are possible too across N IL through 09z.
However, initial band along/advanced of the surface warm front in
central IL remains progressive, though with deeper/stronger
convective capabilities. Intersection of those cells with urban
locations will be the only concern for FF, but will also be more
fleeting temporally given forward propagation. Still, it remains a
non-zero risk and is included.

Overall, the hydrological environment will likely uptake much of
the slower rates as beneficial in the longer run, but FFG remain
lower in E IA with 2-2.5"/6hrs suggest flooding may still be a
concern, as well as through larger urban corridors from Milwaukee
through Chicagoland...where even 1.5"/hr rates would be concerning
especially if 2-3hr totals get over 3". All in all, flash
flooding risk is reducing in overall areal coverage overnight, but
there will remain a good possibility of FFG exceedance in isolated
to widely scattered manner across the area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_glZB-nIFM9m0nxGHSYUgIOWHRuaC6zj0ov7VIUsp-PQ7eIJEqUo7nHNq6Vs38eKPmDbGQKSfxT_VHMSeCeEfZ-a0jU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...ILX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43508919 43338834 42928779 42388758 41668754
40648751 39828759 39468807 39378860 39548912
40328985 40679037 40649119 40839172 41329209
42189198 42959147 43399064 43449012

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 10:40:42

AWUS01 KWNH 011040
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-011630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0910
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
639 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Northern IL...Northwest IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011039Z - 011630Z

SUMMARY...Some bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms expanding
in coverage across northern IL this morning may result in some
areas of flash flooding. This will include potential impacts to
the Chicago metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
cooling convective tops aligning itself in a general north/south
fashion across portions of northern IL. The activity is focusing
generally around the eastern flank of a deep layer low center,
with a relatively focused axis of strong low to mid-level moisture
convergence while also coinciding with a corridor of deeper layer
ascent.

Divergent flow aloft with DPVA in place is seen working in tandem
with the nose of modest instability (MUCAPE values ~500 J/kg) for
convection that more recently is showing some capability to
locally train over the same area. Overall the environment is very
efficient though for high rainfall rates, with OSPO ALPW showing
deep moisture through the vertical column, and suggestive of a
tall, skinny CAPE profile.

IR satellite images show a bit of a convective wedge signature
west of the Chicago metropolitan area which suggests a divergent
flow pattern aloft coinciding with sustainable cold-topped
convection for at least the near-term. Rainfall rates with the
convection are likely to reach 1.5+ inches/hour with the stronger
cells, and with some backbuilding/training cell potential in
place, there may be some rainfall amounts through late-morning
that approach 2 to 4 inches.

These rains may get into the Chicago metropolitan area over the
next couple of hours and promote an urban flash flood threat. Area
streamflows across northern IL are generally on the high side as
it is, so areas even away from the city across northern IL may see
at least localized flash flooding with this morning's rainfall. It
is also possible based on some of the latest hires CAMs that some
of this heavy convective rainfall threat could focus farther
southeast and build into areas of far northwest IN, so these
adjacent areas to the southeast of Chicago will also need to be
monitored.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!66Nz7b6QRJy9YWWKeQxGs2Gqb0AVOZga90V5a0BlixJm6gIMREC-YjhylUq30ZYSj6NS8zEvqkv_ABduK4IUZIksyU8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42538891 42478780 41878694 41298682 40908709
40738767 40888830 41258910 41768962 42248953

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 11:21:44

AWUS01 KWNH 011121
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-011600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0911
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Middle TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011120Z - 011600Z

SUMMARY...Locally backbuilding and training showers and
thunderstorms will continue to foster at least a short-term threat
for mainly urban flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
cold-topped convective cluster across central TN, with radar and
satellite images showing some recent backbuilding and
cell-training characteristics. The convection is focusing out
ahead of a warm front that is gradually approaching the region
along with a deeper pool of moisture and instability.

Warm air advection and relatively divergent flow aloft combined
with an axis of stronger moisture convergence may tend to support
this activity maintaining itself at least for the next few hours.
The nose of a 30 to 40+ kt west-southwest low-level jet
overrunning the upstream warm front will certainly foster an axis
of relatively strong moisture transport that will encourage
heavier rainfall rates.

Favorable upwind propagation/Corfidi vectors at least over the
next few hours will favor an elevated threat for backbuilding
convective cells and cell-training. PWs are locally approaching
2.25 inches across middle TN, and this coupled with MUCAPE values
of 500 to 1000 J/kg will foster rainfall rates reaching over 1.5
inches/hour with the stronger storms.

Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible going
through late this morning, and this may yield some additional
areas of mainly urban flash flooding. This will include the
Nashville metropolitan area where there has already been heavy
rainfall over the last 90 minutes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!79nA02qvgUkJtnzcORKTy3MlaeIrOLcbM5Xs6ExMkjvi0KOUUhF3nTacNa-VYQDVAfqIJa85ksntWFyiJdmAkC_nB1U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36678605 36508511 35748498 35458589 35618679
35978729 36538709

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 16:59:44

AWUS01 KWNH 011659
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-012245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0912
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1258 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Central IL...West-Central to Southern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011658Z - 012245Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding bands showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon will be capable of high rainfall rates. This
coupled locally slow cell-motions and cell-training will likely
result in areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite imagery shows a deep
layer cyclone continue to drift east-southeast toward the Lower OH
Valley. Southerly low-level moisture transport along with the nose
of at least modest instability will continue to ride northward up
around the eastern flank of the low center. This will work in
tandem with DPVA and the diurnal heating cycle to promote the
development and expansion of bands of convection going through the
afternoon hours.

Already the latest radar imagery shows a broken axis of heavy
showers and thunderstorms across central IL just to the north of
the 700/500 mb low center and pivoting in a general east to west
fashion with some cell-training concerns. As the boundary layer
destabilizes further across areas of west-central to southern IN,
more banded structures of convection are expected to develop here
which will likely become aligned with the deeper layer cyclonic
flow and be capable of training over the same area.

MLCAPE values have risen to between 500 and 1000 J/kg across
central and southern IN, with the northwest edge of this getting
pulled back into at least eastern IL. PWs meanwhile are generally
near 1.75 inches, which is being tempered actually a little bit by
a mid-level dry slot riding up across central and southern IN.
Regardless, the threat for concentrated bands of convection should
tend to increase over the next few hours from an increase in
instability and deeper layer ascent around the eastern and
northern flanks of the mid-level low center.

The environment supports rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour
within these bands of convection, and the latest hires CAMs as a
consensus suggest corridors of heavy rainfall totals reaching 2 to
4 inches with spotty 5+ inch amounts not out of the question.
Generally, this is likely to result in some areas of flash
flooding and especially where cell-training is maximized. The
threat will be more near-term across areas of central IL, but
should develop over time across west-central and southern IN.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!56OoPfTwDoupb5of1UFSsDEt6UOoWjwWslkZS66zGEK2eqQa46Cj8wNk1fGahmoEfHcXkTH_v-FdMBMU4QJhEMjTmG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41568805 41368680 40908581 40308513 39418489
38668520 38238557 38018625 38018710 38358760
39178810 39438908 39568963 39879041 40319073
41029039 41398959

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 17:32:28

AWUS01 KWNH 011732
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-012330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0913
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Northern FL...Southern GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011730Z - 012330Z

SUMMARY...Locally broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
with slow cell-motions will pose a threat for some pockets of
flash flooding going into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows broken bands of
convection impacting portions of the FL Panhandle eastward across
northern FL with some of this activity edging into southern GA.
There has been enough convective activity that a cold pool has
become established across the FL Panhandle and adjacent waters of
the northeast Gulf of America. The leading edge of this is
expected to advance off to the east-northeast this afternoon
across northern FL and adjacent areas of southern GA.

MLCAPE values across these areas are on the order of 2000 to 3000
J/kg with PWs near 2 inches. This will foster convection capable
of producing rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour with the
stronger convective elements as the convective mass advances off
to the east-northeast. The convection across northern FL and
southern GA will generally be a mix of pulse and multicell
activity, but the cell-motions are expected to be rather slow.

Some localized outflow boundary collisions may may foster new
convective development and potential for cell-mergers as well over
the next several hours. Rainfall amounts may locally reach 3 to 5
inches where these cell-mergers or any localized cell-training
occurs. A localized and generally urban flash flood threat will
exist as a result since the FFGs are generally quite high across
the region.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9tqx9AueaMgD7qx1xEkewRnHipDj5AZS0hLGkARLR7mPe9jH9B1UBYLCMMUhUeKUuQRSkbGoEIe7ozTRfto2KZ4xhBE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32218205 31968113 31528102 30818128 30358122
29938111 29468165 29608282 30218351 30368393
30648467 31258506 31838473 32158364

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 19:02:04

AWUS01 KWNH 011901
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-020100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0914
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011900Z - 020100Z

SUMMARY...Convection forming over the Sangre de Cristos and
Sacramento Mountains this afternoon have the potential to produce
flash flooding over urban areas, burn scars, and slot canyons as
the storms track southward.

DISCUSSION...Localized flash flooding is possible this afternoon
as convection that has developed over the Sangre de Cristos and
the San Juan mountains gradually shift off the mountains towards
the south. Urban areas such as Santa Fe, as well as any burn scars
and slot canyons have the potential for flash flooding as the
convection tracks near those flood prone areas.

Moisture across much of New Mexico remains high as PWATs around 1
inch have moved across the southern and eastern portions of the
state. A convergence zone has set up along a north-south boundary
where southeasterly flow out of Texas is advecting both higher
moisture and instability between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg into central
New Mexico. The storms have have formed are producing rainfall
rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour in the strongest cores, and with
numerous flood prone areas in the vicinity of those cores, from
canyons to burn scars, flash flooding is possible.

Convection has started to form off the Sacramento mountains as
well in southern New Mexico. The convergence over that area is
more stark with easterly flow approaching the Sacramentos from the
east and westerly flow from the west. Neither flow is particularly
strong, but the combination of that wind convergence and the
Sacramento mountains themselves could lead to more robust
convective development over the next few hours, in areas that are
also highly prone to flash flooding, such as around Ruidoso.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7GDA5XB07bEN3Q2Igy353rYgMqwyeOM6k8Y8y4EEc2fZrMctomUyWRzl9CZCpKbZUtqg1oGS2Z0kaoYtkdnRso6aNuI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37640530 37550467 37520460 36780425 33610412
33010485 32110557 33120620 34630650 35820676
36460679 37270668 37590623

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 20:04:04

AWUS01 KWNH 012003
FFGMPD
TXZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0915
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012002Z - 020200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and storms developing along and ahead
of a cold front over central Texas could cause storms capable of
producing flash flooding into early this evening. Flash flooding
possible.

DISCUSSION... A cold front slowly pushing south across the Texas
Hill Country is beginning to provide the forcing for scattered
showers and storms to develop. These storms are in a very
favorable environment. SBCAPE values are over 3,000 J/kg near Del
Rio, with over 2,000 J/kg CAPE across the rest of the discussion
area. PWATs are over 2 inches for the eastern half of the area and
over 1.75 inches closer to the Rio Grande. With the front
providing the forcing, and ample moisture and instability in
place, expect continued upscale growth in the convection as it
forms along and south of I-10, and presses south towards the
Balcones Escarpment. Much of the Texas Hill Country is highly
susceptible to flash flooding. Thus, even though rainfall rates
are well below FFGs now, the upscale growth of the storms could
make up for that difference, resulting in flash flooding both
under the storm and immediately downstream in the impacted river
basins.

CAMs guidance is mixed about the potential for flash flooding.
Some of the guidance such as the HRRR is quite lackluster in its
presentation of the expected storms over the next several hours.
Meanwhile the RRFS, FV3, and ARW2 are all quite robust in their
depictions of the convective activity. The HRRR was thrown out as
it has been vastly underdoing the convective coverage so far
today, and with new activity now developing from Del Rio east
through Kerrville, it appears the wetter solutions are in much
better position to verify. When adding the very favorable
environment the storms have been forming in, and the front
continuing to press south, keeping the forcing favorable, expect
convective coverage to continue increasing. This in turn will
allow flash flooding potential to also continue increasing into
this evening.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5tjrbIkW8Pt2F6onS7cdUbbQFd9_P4Q-sRXmB6SWKAr8Xw_qfL7IaDzntxhAuvAUbqbMT1yb8GpOUXSXltZoIVe7wDs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30660007 30599870 30559845 30489813 30429792
30209768 29769776 29119821 28969887 28769970
28670019 28660053 28820064 29300096 29720164
29750228 29810220 29980201 30360170 30620099

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 20:46:08

AWUS01 KWNH 012045
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-020230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0916
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Alabama through Eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012044Z - 020230Z

SUMMARY...A line of training thunderstorms has formed in a highly
unstable and moisture rich environment from northern Alabama
through Eastern Kentucky. Flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION...A series of lines of thunderstorm cells are setting
up across northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee this afternoon.
These storms are moving northeastward as the lines they are
embedded in move east, thus allowing for some limited training.
Across Alabama, SPC Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE values close to
5,000 J/kg near the Mississippi border near Hamilton, Alabama. The
nose of instability extends into central Tennessee and Kentucky
with SBCAPE values around 3,000 J/kg. Southwesterly flow ahead of
the advancing cold front is advecting plentiful moisture
northeastward ahead of the front, allowing the storms to blossom
in coverage as they track off towards the northeast. There are a
few segments where the storms have done a better job merging west
of Knoxville, but it's likely that these storms will congeal into
a solid line or two over the next few hours. For now, the storms
are only producing rainfall rates up to an inch per hour, but as
they organize in this highly unstable and moisture-rich
environment, expect the rates in the strongest cores to rapidly
increase. Rainfall rates will be highly dependent on the speed of
the storms, despite expected high instantaneous rainfall rates.
Local rates will approach 3 inches per hour, with isolated rates
to 4 inches per hour where cell mergers and cold pools locally
slow the movement of any stronger cores.

Urban areas such as Birmingham, Chattanooga, and Knoxville are
likely to be impacted by storms capable of producing heavy
rainfall over the next several hours. These urban areas will have
a greater risk of flash flooding as a result. Meanwhile, low-lying
and particularly flood prone areas, especially into northwest
Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and eastern Kentucky where terrain
becomes a significant factor could also see localized flash
flooding in a few hours as the storms move through.

CAMs guidance suggests there will be a single concrete line of
storms on the western end of any convection associated with the
approaching cold front. However, scattered segments of storms are
likely to continue forming out ahead of the main line, seemingly
at random. Areas that are hit with multiple rounds of heavy rain
in quick succession will also be susceptible to localized flash
flooding into this evening.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-uvUIZpfeLbqQ7D-Ok6FDb7psYzUqGi4-D71KLVSin9MAfbFfF_o2j9BeoUv4PHWhQEb55t7XTaXg82XOB3leBZu3RM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37828301 37258257 35688334 35318359 35028385
34398445 33788514 33438586 33088699 33148790
33548806 34468736 35188655 35518637 35898605
36088578 36258548 36638489 37518408

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 21:24:40

AWUS01 KWNH 012124
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0917
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
523 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Central South Carolina and Eastern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012122Z - 020200Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms with a history of rainfall rates over
3 inches per hour will continue to press slowly east across South
Carolina into this evening. Flash flooding likely as the storms
continue over urban areas, and heavy rains overwhelm the dry soils.

DISCUSSION... Numerous showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing
across central South Carolina and portions of eastern Georgia this
afternoon. Due to high FFGs in the area, most storms have been
unable to exceed them so far this afternoon. However, due to the
storms' slow motions, plentiful moisture with PWATs over 2.25
inches along the SC/GA border, instability between 2,000 and 3,000
J/kg of MUCAPE, and interactions with some urban areas, the flash
flooding potential has continued to increase.

The storms have generally been moving very slowly across South
Carolina this afternoon. Meanwhile, with a deep tropical air mass
in place, southeasterly flow off the Atlantic continuing to
replenish the atmospheric moisture lost to rainfall, and
interaction with some urban areas, the storms have continued to
grow upscale as they interact with cold pools in the area.

CAMs guidance suggest the storms will continue to persist for the
next few hours, then gradually diminish in coverage and intensity
over central and eastern South Carolina this evening due to loss
of solar heating and the storms using up the available
instability.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5uAV6j5gxoTT0JAm9vgJjfe3fZXpO1u7QfruzF1yAEbdc8-Eqg9Ffv7qy4qL_aUtggMMyQIMdAcQGA50z7pYV0BES5I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35358112 34797931 33777953 33128041 32178120
32408246 32418275 32568295 33118281 33558238
33848192 33968157 34458143 34918162 35178149

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 22:11:54

AWUS01 KWNH 012211
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0918
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
610 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012209Z - 020200Z

SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms are moving south over
southwestern New Mexico. These storms have a history of rainfall
rates to 1.5 inches per hour. Burn scars and slot canyons
scattered about southwestern New Mexico will likely see additional
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms that formed over the Gila
National Forest has been tracking southward parallel to the
Arizona border this afternoon. The storms have formed as a result
of a thermal low and a front that are draped along the Mexican
border. Weak upper level shortwave energy tracking south along the
eastern side of a large upper level high centered over Southern
California has likely also contributed to the storms' development.

As the storms push southward, they will move over other vulnerable
areas in southwestern New Mexico, particularly any burn scars and
slot canyons over the area. This area has been hit repeatedly over
the past few days, so the level of flash flooding in those canyons
is likely to be similar as the storms on previous days.

Meanwhile further east, a single storm cell is tracking over
extreme western Texas, just to the north of El Paso. This storm
too has a history of producing localized flash flooding. The storm
will move towards the metro, likely impacting the northern and
western suburbs over the next hour or so. Urban flash flooding
from this storm is also possible.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4wNVBdD8e2xRHv0R_LGW2aNOIN30dzPNUnZJFTAp_aG1JtANmNOU_d-wbqJtFbODFCQ4Vejx_HDY26dBPs9Ea9IIUPU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33590830 33550782 33480759 33070692 32330619
31690578 31360604 31710651 31740729 31750815
31310815 31250994 31321028 31681030 32341002
33240947 33470928 33480917 33560881

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 23:02:02

AWUS01 KWNH 012301
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0919
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Indiana and Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012300Z - 020500Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms will cause additional flash
flooding over portions of the Ohio Valley into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A complex of strong thunderstorms tracking across
eastern Indiana this evening will continue to push north and
eastward into this evening. The storms have a history of rainfall
rates to 3 inches per hour, and they will likely maintain that
intensity for the next few hours, especially over portions of
eastern Indiana to the northeast of Indianapolis.

A strong low near Indianapolis is moving ESE across central
Indiana. Ahead of the low a strong occluded front is forcing a
strong line of storms, which extends well south into Kentucky.
These storms are approaching Dayton and Cincinnati. They will move
through over the next hour or so, with urban and small stream
flash flooding possible.

More consequently, the storms that are currently near I-70 between
the Ohio border and Indianapolis are expected to struggle to move
too much further north, as the low center tracks ESE. This will
make for a scenario where the storms become nearly stationary,
likely extending in a line that orients NE to SW. HREF flash flood
exceedance guidance in eastern Indiana shows that there is a 60%
chance of exceeding 3 hrly FFGs through 00Z, staying above 40% in
a portion of eastern Indiana through 03Z, then above 20% through
06Z. This follows with the loss of daytime heating that the storms
should weaken with time.

SPC Mesoanalysis over Ohio shows PWATs over 1.8 inches over much
of the discussion area, with a nose of MLCAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg
over the same area. This will support the line of storms entering
western Ohio to maintain itself, which is well supported in the
CAMs guidance. The further south one goes, the more progressive
the storms will be, so the flash flooding threat towards the Ohio
River should be lesser than areas further north towards Dayton and
eventually Columbus. As the storms move into northern Ohio later
this evening, FFGs increase considerably. The combination of those
higher FFGs and weakening storms should begin to lessen the flash
flooding threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_V3T-pn7GaweGsIj2goXdJ8EYuaEBItTPn_IjQFzWW1EhVONr3AvhEXLH28zugCEoq5SfTCnBHTVb4Hb_TMe4OtZm2s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LOT...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41188690 41178501 40898403 40568349 40368318
40068230 38938216 38368261 37868294 37888312
37928358 38368380 38738438 38888459 39548558
39958717 40138748 40458747 41028733

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 23:06:28

AWUS01 KWNH 012306
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0919...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
705 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Corrected for Graphic

Areas affected...Portions of Indiana and Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012300Z - 020500Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms will cause additional flash
flooding over portions of the Ohio Valley into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A complex of strong thunderstorms tracking across
eastern Indiana this evening will continue to push north and
eastward into this evening. The storms have a history of rainfall
rates to 3 inches per hour, and they will likely maintain that
intensity for the next few hours, especially over portions of
eastern Indiana to the northeast of Indianapolis.

A strong low near Indianapolis is moving ESE across central
Indiana. Ahead of the low a strong occluded front is forcing a
strong line of storms, which extends well south into Kentucky.
These storms are approaching Dayton and Cincinnati. They will move
through over the next hour or so, with urban and small stream
flash flooding possible.

More consequently, the storms that are currently near I-70 between
the Ohio border and Indianapolis are expected to struggle to move
too much further north, as the low center tracks ESE. This will
make for a scenario where the storms become nearly stationary,
likely extending in a line that orients NE to SW. HREF flash flood
exceedance guidance in eastern Indiana shows that there is a 60%
chance of exceeding 3 hrly FFGs through 00Z, staying above 40% in
a portion of eastern Indiana through 03Z, then above 20% through
06Z. This follows with the loss of daytime heating that the storms
should weaken with time.

SPC Mesoanalysis over Ohio shows PWATs over 1.8 inches over much
of the discussion area, with a nose of MLCAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg
over the same area. This will support the line of storms entering
western Ohio to maintain itself, which is well supported in the
CAMs guidance. The further south one goes, the more progressive
the storms will be, so the flash flooding threat towards the Ohio
River should be lesser than areas further north towards Dayton and
eventually Columbus. As the storms move into northern Ohio later
this evening, FFGs increase considerably. The combination of those
higher FFGs and weakening storms should begin to lessen the flash
flooding threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_mjE6tpVGSIsI3ho1Hp7FW4EJTfkxcb4tyPsVFU9GKmoMnuCppPOyQsqLp4IvME38kAqsSYeIgHEaj0vTV036eYsCwQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LOT...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41188690 41178501 40898403 40568349 40368318
40068230 38938216 38368261 37868294 37888312
37928358 38368380 38738438 38888459 39558556
39698608 39738659 39508695 39538733 39508748
40138748 40458747 41028733

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 23:09:00

AWUS01 KWNH 012308
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0919...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Corrected for Graphic

Areas affected...Portions of Indiana and Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012300Z - 020500Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms will cause additional flash
flooding over portions of the Ohio Valley into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A complex of strong thunderstorms tracking across
eastern Indiana this evening will continue to push north and
eastward into this evening. The storms have a history of rainfall
rates to 3 inches per hour, and they will likely maintain that
intensity for the next few hours, especially over portions of
eastern Indiana to the northeast of Indianapolis.

A strong low near Indianapolis is moving ESE across central
Indiana. Ahead of the low a strong occluded front is forcing a
strong line of storms, which extends well south into Kentucky.
These storms are approaching Dayton and Cincinnati. They will move
through over the next hour or so, with urban and small stream
flash flooding possible.

More consequently, the storms that are currently near I-70 between
the Ohio border and Indianapolis are expected to struggle to move
too much further north, as the low center tracks ESE. This will
make for a scenario where the storms become nearly stationary,
likely extending in a line that orients NE to SW. HREF flash flood
exceedance guidance in eastern Indiana shows that there is a 60%
chance of exceeding 3 hrly FFGs through 00Z, staying above 40% in
a portion of eastern Indiana through 03Z, then above 20% through
06Z. This follows with the loss of daytime heating that the storms
should weaken with time.

SPC Mesoanalysis over Ohio shows PWATs over 1.8 inches over much
of the discussion area, with a nose of MLCAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg
over the same area. This will support the line of storms entering
western Ohio to maintain itself, which is well supported in the
CAMs guidance. The further south one goes, the more progressive
the storms will be, so the flash flooding threat towards the Ohio
River should be lesser than areas further north towards Dayton and
eventually Columbus. As the storms move into northern Ohio later
this evening, FFGs increase considerably. The combination of those
higher FFGs and weakening storms should begin to lessen the flash
flooding threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5CwxJg-4vP0uMkVZaakowEyZ6LoG2G6QAk-bTxq9LDqxCmf838t6z4aHI8l9womDwqAuLOiIz_ncsPa-kwSIHz6FMvQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LOT...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41188690 41178501 40898403 40568349 40368318
40068230 38938216 38368261 37868294 37888312
37928358 38368380 38738438 38888459 39558556
39698608 39738659 39508695 39538733 39508748
40138748 40458747 41028733

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 01:51:16

AWUS01 KWNH 020151
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-020630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0920
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
949 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico..Adj. Southeast
Arizona/Western Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020150Z - 020630Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of slightly progressive, but intense
rainfall producers additional 1-1.5" in 0-1hrs may result in
isolated remaining new incident of localized flash flooding
through 06z.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows a shortwave at the tail end of the
larger scale trough across the Great Lakes extending into the
eastern edge of the western ridge aloft. This wave currently in
east-central NM, extends a bit further westward due to convective
feedback from earlier convection providing some increased, if
generally weak organization to the convective line. Weak easterly
to east-southeasterly moisture flux out of western Texas into
southern NM as well as generally confluence into the developing
850mb low over N Chihuahua has been providing sufficient moisture
flux with 1.25-1.5" in the southern High Plains and 1-1.25" across
SE AZ into S NM (higher values with greater vertical depth in the
valleys, of course). However, it is the deep layer flow and
convergence and remaining conditionally unstable air across the
area of concern that will help to maintain the forward propagating
complexes.

Regional RADAR also, denotes outflow has been pretty solid ahead
of the mid-level 850-700 convergence axis, allowing for some
pre-convective line convergence to focus/redevelop new scattered
cells in advance of the line as noted in Dona Ana and northeast
Otero county and earlier in northern Chaves county. It is spots
like this that will have greater potential for longer duration and
totals nearing 1.5" in 1-1.5hrs; while overall deep moisture
should support sub-hourly 1" totals along the length of the line.
Given rocky/harder ground conditions and a few urban locales in
the path of the line, there remains a possible chance for
localized flash flooding conditions through the early overnight
period. Instability will continue to diminish with cooling
surface temperatures and cells will likely weaken through 05-07z
ending the FF risk.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_QCr-Cp8t3vl13bZxv_pWAUA0rxv2fTxz5N2YEu8ok_65gRgTbNxycEwdq8OaO9YmL-jiQvGUzAi2ddnDz9QD9R4fAA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33960347 33860314 33290307 32830318 32360381
31910489 31650619 31670703 31720800 31240809
31230897 31331011 32041021 32830848 33320612
33760440

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 30, 2026 15:52:42

AWUS01 KWNH 301552
FFGMPD
FLZ000-302050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0896
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1151 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...West-Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301550Z - 302050Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms containing intense rainfall
rates over 3"/hr are possible through this afternoon in
west-central FL, including the greater Tampa Bay region. Localized
rainfall amounts of 5-8+" may prompt urban flooding and ponding
water over roadways.

Discussion...Regional radar and satellite imagery across the FL
Peninsula show a primary complex of thunderstorms gradually
sinking southward near Tampa bay and extending eastward across the
Peninsula. This is occurring within a very moist and unstable
environment. The 12Z sounding out of TBW recorded a PW of 2.41"
and MLCAPE of 2,015 J/kg. These are both near the daily max in
climatology. Additionally, flow over the Gulf into the region will
continue to advect instability into the region and allow for
thunderstorm redevelopment for areas along the Gulf Coast of
west-central FL through the afternoon.

12Z HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities for at least 5 inches
of rain by 21Z are 40-60% from near Tampa eastward near and just
south of I-4. Additionally, rainfall totals in the areas have been
observed to exceed 2" within 30 mins and is enough to lead to at
least urban flooding or ponding water on roadways. These rates are
expected to continue through this afternoon, with rainfall totals
potentially nearing or exceeding 8 inches within the most
pronounced and slow-moving thunderstorms.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6KoP2OE-H_0MmvV9m9_2pMsaJuwQ56plWVye7TwD32c5eh3NEk9fiKJ3LPVGcDLYarKe5mwdqmDSbCWhhrk1UHuVUrE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28408277 28228198 28298126 28048102 27678115
27388161 27248208 27348266 27918293

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 30, 2026 18:29:34

AWUS01 KWNH 301829
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-310030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0897
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northern South Dakota, southeast North
Dakota, and northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301830Z - 310030Z

Summary...Increasing coverage of slow-moving thunderstorms this
afternoon from north-central South Dakota to northwest Minnesota
are expected to contain rainfall rates up to 2-3"/hr at times.
This may produce isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
through this evening.

Discussion...GOES-E satellite imagery this afternoon shows cooling
cloud-tops across parts of north-central SD into eastern ND. These
developing thunderstorms are exhibiting slow forward propagation
as wind profiles remain rather light (less than 10 kts) out of the
south up until around 500mb. This southerly flow is also ushering
in a very moist airmass with PWs between 1.8-2.2" and aided by a
tightening mid-level circulation/vort max over western SD. These
values are above the 90th climatological percentile in SD per
30-yr CFSR climo for late-July to early August. Instability is
also not lacking with SBCAPE values over 5000 J/kg along the
border of southeast ND and MN (per SPC's mesoanalysis). A frontal
boundary gradually sinking across northern ND into northwest MN
will provide an additional focus for thunderstorm development,
which may remain separated from ongoing activity across southeast
ND into northern SD.

Latest HRRR and RRFS highlight maximum rainfall amounts through
01Z around 3-5" are possible. These 3"+ amounts are also supported
by the 12Z HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities ranging from
20-60% in the region. A limiting factor for widespread flash
flooding is the dry antecedent conditions, with NASA SPoRT-LIS
0-40cm soil moisture below the 5th percentile for much of this
area. However, rainfall rates of 2-3" within this highly moist and
unstable environment could overcome this and produce rapid runoff,
as well as urban flash flooding.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5M0f096OfOrtdcsJ24AoTCAv_-iUQgiqVu6G_vq7ezoGngRdM-EywByJbbb9c2NoHj_JgOCtSI8317epk8PospFqU4k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48979561 48929419 48309392 47409533 46359635
45309696 44799796 44639919 44850043 45600086
46670000 48119779

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 30, 2026 20:44:54

AWUS01 KWNH 302044
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-310042-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0898
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...northern/northeastern Wisconsin, portions of the
upper peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302042Z - 310042Z

Summary...Spotty/isolated flash flood potential exists for a few
hours this afternoon.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the
discussion area and have a history of producing local rain rates
to 3 inches/hr over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The storms
continue to produce spots of 1.5-2 inch/hr rain rates (per MRMS)
and are located within a pool of moderate instability (around 1500
J/kg MLCAPE) along and just ahead of a composite convective/lake
breeze boundary near the WI/MI border. PW values of 1.5-1.9 are
supporting efficient rainfall processes within the storms, while
modest mean flow aloft (around 15-20 knots) was fostering spots of
convective backbuilding, enabling locally higher rain rates to
develop. These rates (approaching 2 inches/hr) are approaching
local FFG in a few areas, suggesting isolated potential for
excessive runoff in spots in the short term.

This risk will continue for another 2-4 hours or so. The upstream
airmass across central/southwest WI is notably drier and less
stable than the near-convective environment, suggesting that once
ongoing activity exhausts the current pool of instability, storms
(and flash flood potential) will diminish in intensity. The flash
flood risk should exist on an isolated basis through at least
00Z/7p central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5e6P27vpg1d-8oOgGTZ_F8MjDCqwCd_8CGEZE7TE0KtN91j6NOMB40nhyt3r_-TkCz7ladxxL8A2Hhdbe_utA-jFh6I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DLH...GRB...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46598554 46448516 46278575 46038662 45038775
44588837 45108986 46359133 46459030 46468929
46238858 46028761 46228658 46438651

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 30, 2026 22:13:58

AWUS01 KWNH 302213
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-310211-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0899
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
612 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...portions of Arizona and New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302211Z - 310211Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out across
Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon and evening.

Discussion...Strong insolation and mid-level moisture was
promoting isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
especially along terrain-favored ridgelines and peaks over the
past couple hours. Development has been gradual, and is most
concentrated across southwestern NM, with more isolated activity
near Ruidoso in south-central NM and also along the Mogollon Rim
in AZ. Storms are in a comparatively drier environment compared
to recent monsoonal thunderstorm days (0.8-1.2 inch PW values),
though MRMS was already indicating spotty rates of 1 inch/hr
especially in southwestern NM with the activity due to slow storm
movement. Flash flooding should be isolated this afternoon/early
evening, and generally tied to locales that experience heavier
rainfall atop burn scars and sensitive terrain/canyons in the
region. Most of this threat should be diurnally driven, with a
weakening trend in storms expected after around 02Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8XZNEortFHDejAP3knFeDKG-utWXQQfT0OPdsjRYElQUw0CjobKemuwYm9cFu7kM32yt2bBq6V0g-2jV_Q8OnEcL70Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35611132 35371031 35210872 35230692 35010546
34090515 32720575 31990685 31710817 31340826
31401013 31741112 32891078 33811157 35381236

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 00:50:36

AWUS01 KWNH 310049
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-310647-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0900
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 310047Z - 310647Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue to spread eastward
into southwestern Minnesota while persisting in much of South
Dakota, though the duration and extent of this risk is uncertain.

Discussion...A complicated surface pattern exists across the
discussion area. A couple of maturing convective complexes exist:
1) from just northwest of Benson, MN southwestward to near Huron
and on to near Mobridge, SD and 2) a second, more quickly moving
MCS from near Faith to near Phillip, SD. At their current pace,
each of these complexes were expected to merge across central into
east-central South Dakota, prolonging rain rates in areas that
were already experiencing 1-3 inch/hr totals due to slow storm
movement. These trends suggest a continued flash flood threat
particularly with the lead MCS from near Huron to Mobridge given
slow cell movement and potential for more than one round of heavy
rainfall.

Further complicating this pattern is the presence of subtle
low-level drying downstream across Iowa and far southern
Minnesota, which has resulted in negligible instability in those
areas. Furthermore, a more mature, intense MCS over
central/eastern Nebraska will stabilize the low-levels into
south-central South Dakota via convective overturning. These
factors will likely impact MCS maintenance/propagation over
eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota, although the
well-organized nature of the MCS in eastern South Dakota suggests
at least another 3-5 hours of persistence along with slow eastward
movement. Should 2-3 inch/hr rain rates continue to materialize
(plausible given slow cell motions in some areas and 2.1+ inch PW
values), areas of flash flooding will remain possible. Eastward
maintenance of the convective complexes into southwestern
Minnesota is expected, although persistence beyond State Highway
15 in Minnesota remains uncertain. Flash flooding is expected on
at least an isolated basis in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4LtTCLnCLeHRbW5XNC8V0PR26xoFsK6RNcNpVOw55KYYbSvxU5lIagZ7TPCTqQSYzzlNPZQmZ9mKmdoZRaATpJgpBlk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45819638 45729529 45169465 44619438 43979436
43629600 43789943 44000030 44650035 45169982
45199854 45499719

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 06:27:20

AWUS01 KWNH 310627
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-311200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0901
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Eastern SD...Southern MN...Northern IA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310630Z - 311200Z

SUMMARY...Vertically stacking cyclone will have strong moisture
flux convergence for slow moving thunderstorms near the center and
along the steepening warm-air advective band(s) across S MN/N IA.
Prolonged 1-1.25"/hr rates with occasional peaks near 2"/hr will
support spots of 2-4", with possible highly localized spot or two
up to 5". Incidents of focused flash flooding will be possible,
especially near and east of the cyclone center.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite and RAP analysis depict, older
shortwave that translated out of the Rockies yesterday has stalled
over SE SD and is starting to lift northward and merge with the
larger scale shortwave that can be seen well near KPIR sliding in
to replace it, providing a strong downstream zone of dPVA and deep
layer cyclogenesis. At the surface, a strengthening 1007-8mb low
in SE SD, appears to be slowly occluding as lead cold front is
advancing upon warm front slow to leave the Missouri River Valley
into western IA; the older northern-stream frontal zone is
dropping a stronger cold front through central SD and through the
Sand Hills that will continue to swing through the base as the
main height-falls roll through over the next 4-6hrs; while return
easterly flow across central MN is steepening the isentropes ahead
of the advancing warm front, though with ample moisture in the
upper 60s and low 70s aiding overall deep layer moisture in the
region. Overall Total PWats along and east of the surface to 500mb
trof axis (across E SD) are AoA 2.25" with strong directional
convergence and with winds of 20-30kts from surface to 700mb.

Moisture flux convergence will be key has overall instability
environment continues to diminish with loss of heating. Warm
sector/warm conveyor belt out of E NEB had be mixed over with
initial convective line, but solid WAA across the warm front and
into the back-shearing TROWAL toward the vertically stacking
cyclone center will continue to maintain pockets of MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg. This will allow for shallow, inner core convection
across E SD into SW MN to have capability of up to 2"/hr though
flare-ups of convection are likely to be short-lived, focused and
transient to next strong convergence zone, though with limited
cell motions, SHaRS-type intense localized rainfall for 1-2 hours
may result in localized 2-4"+ totals and represent the best
opportunities for flash flooding; though broad areas of 1-1.25"/hr
will exist for prolonged periods due to isentropic ascent/mst flux
convergence.

Eastward, strong vertical ascent on those steepening isentropic
boundary into south-central MN and northern IA will also have
stronger vertical depth closer to the warm conveyor/instability
axis. Rates of 1.5-2"/hr are likely to result in 2-3" totals
closer to the slower cell motions near the cyclone pivot point,
while further south into central IA may have reduced localized
totals due to forward (west to east) cell motions to limit
residency time.

Hydrologically, the area has remained very dry with NASA SPoRT LIS
0-40cm relative soil moisture values below 15% for much of the
area of concern. If rates are hard enough, the soils could be
more hydrophobic with run-off, but shield precipitation may help
to soften them initially before heavier rates reach most areas.
So hopefully, the slower rates will be more beneficial for most
areas; however, those areas where the inner-core shallow but
intense convective cores reach with 2-5" totals may result in
localized incident or two of possible flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5aSKrUPMIqpjzAjgGzinR8Ouz8tBhr8XVAzWzw1qQx4B1uO-PfDPn1iNDlg_U7XKNZKbx57Gzj5Bar3BIGwH33-wS_c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45819658 45739620 45659558 45369419 44689312
44069270 43069246 42559268 42279385 42179511
42509536 43489630 43669675 43859719 44439750
44989756 45379755 45589739 45789700

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 09:52:42

AWUS01 KWNH 310952
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-311250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0902
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
551 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Western Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310950Z - 311250Z

SUMMARY...Recent uptick of convective vigor and short-term
training suggests a narrow window of possible 2-4" totals and
possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows warming across SE SD and NE NEB
as upstream shortwave is merging into larger scale closed low
feature resulting in flattening of deep-layer flow across KS into
MO. Simultaneously, outflow-boundary is pressing south, but
orientating west to east across E KS with slightly backed
southerly LLJ across E KS. RAP analysis shows instability axis
along and downstream across SE KS and W MO with 1000-1500 J/kg of
slightly capped MLCAPE. As such, the strengthened deep layer
moisture convergence has recently resulted in stronger convective
response over Jefferson and W Leavenworth county with tops cooling
below -70C, while upstream development continues in the core of
the LLJ in Shawnee county.

CIRA LPW and RAP analysis show solid overlap of enhanced moisture
through E KS with 2.25-2.5" total PWats. Given ample moisture and
convective vigor, recent rainfall rates are pushing 2-2.25"/hr
with length of potential training sufficient for 2-3"+ totals.
Weak southeastward propagation as the meso-high/cold pool
regenerates may deflect ideal training to reduce overall temporal
and therefore eastward areal coverage, especially as local FFG
values increase into central MO. However, with 1hr FFG values in
the 1.5-2" range and 1.5-2.5"/3hr from Waubansee, KS to
Cass/Johnson county in MO, there is a sufficient window for
possible localized flash flooding over the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Mche3yXFZirQAPeSRlClmFkTWihwWCnvvMBhVLAXofXjO3ZsNo_FcV2FzxzCU1Xw1Kgp9MvI7S5HZFLssx3x4jc2Ck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39199428 39059346 38679324 38209362 38269480
38409558 38819634 39149599

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 11:48:52

AWUS01 KWNH 311148
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-311745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0903
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
747 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311147Z - 311745Z

SUMMARY...Concerns for isolated and mainly urban flash flooding
will exist across portions of the Upper Midwest going through
midday.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
well-defined mid-level trough and associated closed 700/500mb low
center across the Upper Midwest which is driving a regional area
of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Much of the current activity
is situated out ahead of a surface low and is elevated in nature
across central and especially southern MN, along with an axis down
across northeast IA.

Focused warm air advection into the region and coupling with the
right-entrance region of the upper-level jet is providing focused
corridors of deep layer ascent. This coupled with modest
instability (MUCAPE values ~500 J/kg), but rather strong low-level
moisture convergence, has been the key driver of the morning
convective footprint across the region.

An axis of 2.0 to 2.25 inch PWs are noted across south-central MN
through central IA just ahead of the approaching cold front, and
this moisture coupled with the aforementioned forcing is helping
to yield rainfall rates as high as 1.5 inches/hour with the
stronger convective cores. The relatively lackluster instability
is actually helping to mitigate the rainfall rate potential a bit,
but the current activity is also rather slow-moving. Therefore,
this is allowing for concerns for locally heavy rainfall totals to
materialize.

The latest multi-model hires CAMs and global model guidance show
some additional amplification of the mid-level trough, and with
the rather strong dynamical forcing, the overall convective
footprint is likely to persist despite the relative lack of
instability.

Slow cell-motions will encourage persistence of locally heavy
rainfall rates that may allow for an additional 2 to 4 inches
going through midday. While generally south-central MN down
through northeast IA should see the heaviest rains, some of these
rains may edge into western WI and northwest IL toward midday.
This rainfall is expected to support concerns for isolated and
mainly urban flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4LJQzYuzxXQ-HBzGZgCP7Av3dfUa7pTfJhNZPESGLyej7pEwhm7IlvUmEARIYsD20jxPGCzu9GxdFKKUqoF0qF7JjLU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45419426 45159272 44319119 43409027 42608984
41918974 41538981 41329016 41319108 42039204
43009321 43549475 43969589 44589633 45229572

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 14:42:36

AWUS01 KWNH 311442
FFGMPD
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-311900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0904
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1041 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast MO...Southern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311441Z - 311900Z

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly urban flash flooding will
exist over the next few hours from locally repeating showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms advancing across east-central MO and into western
and southwest IL. The convection is associated with a well-defined
warm air and moisture advection regime around the southeast flank
of a deeper layer trough over the Upper Midwest.

This coupled with relatively divergent flow aloft and some uptick
in boundary layer moisture convergence has been promoting some
localized expansion and uptick in intensity of this convection
over the last hour. Much of the convection is highly elevated and
focused along a rather strong instability gradient, but with some
cloud-top cooling noted, the activity should tend to persist over
the next few hours as it advances off to the east.

Some expansion of convection is possible across southern MO and
adjacent areas of southern IL as a warm front begins to encroach
on the area, and this will also lead to an increase in PWs which
are quite high across central and southern MO right now with
values of 2.25+ inches. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are
expected with the stronger and more focused cells.

Some localized repeating of convective cells is noted in radar
imagery over the last hour, especially south of St. Louis, and
this may result in some localized 2 to 3+ inch totals as the
general convective mass advances more into areas of southern IL
over the next few hours.

An isolated and mainly urban flash flood threat will exist with
this activity over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9UzJjZfxyFdwt86ZTmdFmlc5bf_MYrCHyK2AqJrQtehf6ZBGi4XFNyeVRKLdZ9RWOdsQxZGTNlE8UycaRvZTVHPyXw0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39368898 38788818 38038808 37328851 36998956
37109116 37559171 38259143 38789045 39248989

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 16:48:14

AWUS01 KWNH 281648
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-282245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0877
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1247 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern New York through Western New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281646Z - 282245Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have developed across portions of
New York into New England. Flash flooding is likely as the storms
interact with the terrain.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have formed in several
clusters from central New York through portions of western New
England this afternoon. These clusters have a history of producing multiple-inch-per-hour rainfall rates. Duration has also been a
distinguishing factor as some portions of central New York have
seen heavy rainfall for several hours. The clusters of storms have
developed ahead of a strong upper level negatively tilted trough,
on the leading edge of a potent low level jet advecting high PWATs
to 1.5 to 1.75 inches right into eastern New York and western New
England. With plentiful terrain in these areas, the combination of
upslope into the south-facing slopes of the mountains, heavy rain
that's likely to persist for multiple hours, and plentiful
moisture allowing storms to train and backbuild will all combine
to make flash flooding likely in this region through the
afternoon.

While the heaviest rain has been in Central New York thus far,
streamers of storms will fill in most areas in eastern New York
over to western New England through the afternoon as peak heating
and instability advection both increase the coverage, severity,
and duration of the strongest storms. Urban and small stream
flooding are most likely, especially off the south-facing slopes
of the mountains and in the urban areas subject to the longer
durations of heavy rainfall. Locally significant flash flooding
can't be ruled out.

High resolution CAMs guidance suggests the most persistent rains
will be in the western areas from Binghamton up I-88, and for
eastern areas from western Connecticut into southern Vermont from
I-91 west. There remains some uncertainty for the Catskills
through the Hudson Valley, where southerly flow may limit the
convective coverage since terrain won't necessarily help
concentrate the heaviest rainfall, and storms to the south may
limit how much instability can advect into that area.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6o50qUhhx870TJnLypXP7q9PoIMPZrXhRGTn_xj_TYcscowWKenmc-4ss_iwnH_rUXoTOivRdeGJ2TftYPIHjSBf5i0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43957288 43157243 42467213 41767207 41417244
41387304 41357405 41327467 41417475 41537502
41507557 41597608 42097667 42927578 43677401

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 14:41:46

AWUS01 KWNH 291441
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-292035-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0887
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...Central NY into Parts of Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 291435Z - 292035Z

Summary...Ongoing flash flooding threat will continue through at
least early this afternoon as moderate to locally heavy rain
(hourly rates up to 2"/hr) maintains over the region. Locally
significant impacts are possible in parts of the Hudson Valley
where over 5" has fallen already.

Discussion...A favorable synoptic setup for heavy rainfall
continues to evolve this morning, although waning in intensity
somewhat, over parts of east-central New York State and adjacent
southern New England. Stacked low-to-mid level low with a few
embedded circulations extend from near Long Island to the
Adirondacks and is supplying an axis of strong deep layer
convergence. Additionally, this setup is supplying very moist flow
(1.5-1.8" PWs) from the Atlantic just to the east of this
circulation. As the northernmost low rotates around the strong
southern low, this creates a pivoting axis over the Hudson Valley
for longer duration moderate rainfall rates and the highest storm
totals. Rainfall amounts up until 14Z over the last 24-hrs were
over 5" along the Hudson River Valley of NY and as high as around
9.5" just southeast of Albany, NY. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr as
estimated by MRMS this morning have come down and are expected to
remain around or below 2"/hr throughout the day due to limited
instability. However, rates of 1-2" across regions already dealing
with overly saturated soils will be enough to continue producing
scattered to widespread flash flooding. Locally significant
impacts are possible, including additional road closures and
impacts to low-lying infrastructure.

Just to the east of the Hudson Valley throughout southern New
England, a band of moderate to heavy rainfall wrapping on the
east-northeast periphery of the circulation moving inland from the
Long Island Sound will produce potential for isolated to scattered
flash flooding. Although hourly rainfall rates across this region
are again not expected to exceed 2", there could be a brief period
of training that leads to 3-5" amounts and exceeding local FFG
from northern CT to central/western Ma. Additionally, upslope
enhancement into the Berkshires, southern Greens, and Worcester
Hills could lead to locally higher rainfall and higher likelihood
of at least scattered coverage of flash flooding.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VUy7j5RmhBpfKPH27hkG5Iv4_M1v577Qyk1O7NL1cPvjhd-r4csmFZu4GvsE3EKsfpZJQyI6JuSJ4YIbtTJ6kVTJj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43717416 43377343 43097276 42847225 42427177
41987183 41747228 41557291 41387363 41677430
42367441 42857446 43577464

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 15:44:18

AWUS01 KWNH 291544
FFGMPD
NYZ000-292140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0888
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1143 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...Parts of New York State from the St. Lawrence
River Valley to the Southern Tier

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291540Z - 292140Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms with pockets of 2-4" rainfall
totals are possible through this afternoon across parts of New
York State, centered over the eastern shores of Lake Ontario,
which may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Latest regional radar and MRMS estimates show
developing efficient rain-producing showers across far northern
New York State near the St. Lawrence River Valley along a frontal
boundary wrapping southward to the east of Lake Ontario and into
the Southern Tier of New York. MRMS hourly rates have been
estimated up to 2" across far northwest parts of the state so far.
This is all occurring to the west of a strong and stacked low-mid
level low over southern New England, with high PWs being directed
to the north and west into this frontal zone. PWs of 1.5-1.75" via
SPC's mesoanalysis are found across this region and actually
higher from Oswego, NY on northward.

With ample moisture and an axis of convergence in place,
instability is not overly impressive, but is highest over the
highlighted area where compared to the remainder of the Northeast
and New England. SBCAPE values remain around 1000 J/kg and should
keep showers from growing upscale, but the slow forward
propagation and uniform northerly flow could allow for some
repeating of showers. Should this occur, rainfall amounts could
add up to around 2-4" and is supported by recent HRRR and RRFS
runs. 12Z REFS neighborhood probabilities for at least 2" per
3-hrs are between 20-40% and match recent radar trends, with the
expectation that these totals are isolated in nature.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_hEgyMBJLfPtR6htyH1VN-vXi4lhMGye_f7h0I56ngOecaZ6zWxm7Tlm4MWvxaLS72ekk4HIPRrh3eKICsegS2gu6zg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45027499 44627474 43737517 43027532 42527545
42407602 42727661 43577670 44477621 44897560

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 17:40:34

AWUS01 KWNH 041740
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-042338-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0938
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
139 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...Much of North Carolina into Southern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041738Z - 042338Z

Summary...A few instances of flash flooding are possible through
23z/7pm EDT.

Discussion...Radar shows increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across North Carolina into southern Virginia. 1-2
inch hourly rainfall rates are occurring on an isolated basis in
cells forming in this general region -- highest near Fayetteville.
The convection was increasing due to a number of factors,
including: 1) increasing instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) from
surface heating, 2) ascent from weak mid-level shortwave troughs
just downstream of an upper low over Georgia, and 3) Moist
southerly flow emanating from the Gulf Stream, which was
maintaining 1.5-2.4 inch PW values into a stationary front
extending from near Richmond, VA west-southwest to near Asheville,
NC.

Scattered convection will continue to increase in coverage, with
areas of 1-3 inch totals expected (per models/HREF) in several
areas. Locally higher amounts could be observed where cell mergers
or local training materializes. Model guidance indicates 20-30
percent chances for 2 inch hourly rainfall rates in North Carolina
and 30-50 percent chances in southern Virginia, with similar 3-6
hour flash flood exceedance probabilities in these respective
areas. Urban locales (i.e., Richmond to Virginia Beach) and areas
of lower FFG from central VA through western NC will be more
susceptible to flash flooding. This risk will likely exist
through at least 23Z/7p EDT.

Wilder/Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!78l-GHuzGQEpGLTv6WkPrAw0KPSg4hIhKvdiWBVvP0xGlqSxyGixOwG2-Irc5Sh8ffPxY_DEq_Uz8Xtl6ENq3m9BwpI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MHX...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37917811 37387629 36597614 35887705 35407834
34937946 35228212 35758253 36568148 37347985

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 21:08:24

AWUS01 KWNH 042108
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-050240-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0939
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...southwestern NM into southeastern/southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042106Z - 050240Z

Summary...Increasing thunderstorm coverage across southwestern NM
into southeastern AZ through the evening and early overnight may
result in a few areas of flash flooding. Hourly rainfall totals of
1-2 inches and sub-hourly rains of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15-30
minutes are expected through 03Z.

Discussion...2045Z visible satellite imagery showed monsoonal
convection underway across the higher terrain of southwestern NM
into southeastern AZ. Water vapor imagery showed the center of a
west-east elongated mid to upper-level ridge over south-central AZ
into NM, with deeper layer mean flow from the E to ENE across the
south-central AZ/NM border into northern MX. PW values across
western NM into eastern AZ were average to slightly above average
for this time of year (per blended TPW imagery) and mostly clear
skies through the mid-afternoon have contributed to 500 to 1500+
J/kg MLCAPE across southeastern AZ into far southwestern NM via
20Z SPC mesoanalysis data, with higher instability in excess of
2000 J/kg with southward extent into northern MX.

Expectations are for thunderstorms to continue forming along the
higher terrain of southwestern NM into eastern AZ over the next
few hours, with an eventual movement toward the west and southwest
into the lower deserts and eventually portions of the I-10 and
I-19 corridors which have greater instability. While some slow
cell movement may be observed early on in the storm life cycle,
individual cell speeds of 10 to 20 kt are expected as one nears
the US/MX border due to the presence of 20-35 kt of easterly 500
mb winds over southern AZ into northern MX on the south side of
the ridge axis. Rainfall rate potential will be for 1 to 2 inches
in an hour but also high sub-hourly totals of 0.5 to 1 inch in
15-30 minutes.

Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase through 00Z
across the mountains of southeastern AZ into northern MX (per
recent HRRR/RRFS runs), with these cells generally moving from
east to west. Outflow development within the dry sub-cloud layer
should contribute to eventual merging and clustering of cells with
movement toward the west. As this occurs, locally enhanced rain
rates of 1-2 inches per hour are expected but with much of the
heaviest rain falling in the sub-hourly time frame. These intense
rainfall rates may produce a few areas of flash flooding through
03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4AKAOQd4a6mh9rV27f27afd6zu8KmKZYZQmgBN3vyOCB-eznwNF0QSAt_nYjeYisZmeOGnHnzEpyZgbGVWCSlgp6zZw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34671088 34440963 33560823 32640746 31850739
31510796 31110837 31071013 31121107 31481175
32271168 32891146 33881154

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 23:55:46

AWUS01 KWNH 042355
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-050330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0940
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
754 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...far southern VA into central/east-central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042353Z - 050330Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood potential will exist across far
southern VA into central/east-central NC for another 2-4 hours. An
additional 2-4 inches of rain will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 2340Z showed lingering
convection along the central VA/NC border into portions of central
NC. Satellite and radar imagery showed an outflow boundary
tracking southward into northern NC, associated with locally
heavier rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour. Farther south, scattered
showers were noted in the vicinity of a mid-level vorticity max
centered roughly between Raleigh-Durham and Rocky Mount,
NC...tracking slowly north to northwest. SPC mesoanalysis data
from 23Z estimated MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg in place across the
region but high PWs of 2.2 to 2.5 inches also remained, supporting
high short term rainfall rates.

While the overall trend in convective vigor appears to be down
with the loss of daytime heating, it seems widely scattered
instances of higher rainfall rate potential (1 to 3 in/hr) will
remain from the VA/NC border into central/east-central NC for
another 2-4 hours as the vorticity max continues to interact with
convectively driven mesoscale outflows. An additional 2-4 inches
of rain will be possible through ~03Z, but these higher totals are
expected to remain isolated/localized in coverage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5zd4Cc_yZnrZ_YNDnuNRpl-QfhuACMPKwKvV-B_loSdZ98UgW7aDhuQxS9WvaLkNyCuzQcBfVur6839lGIxiVh39sHQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36817776 36627689 35717707 35137890 35367990
35837997 36197959 36467880

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 00:31:22

AWUS01 KWNH 050031
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-050400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0941
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...northern MO/southern IA into western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050029Z - 050400Z

SUMMARY...A relatively narrow axis of flash flooding will be
possible across northern MO, far southern IA into western IL
through 04Z. Peak rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (locally higher)
are expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0015Z showed a few slow moving
thunderstorms located along a cold to quasi-stationary front
across northern MO. These cells were slow moving within a weakness
in the steering flow and tracking parallel to the boundary aligned
from west to east, supporting peak MRMS-derived hourly rainfall
locally in the 2-3 inch range over the past 1-2 hours. MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg and PWs just near 2 inches were estimated by the
00Z SPC mesoanalysis across the region, supporting high rain rates
beneath modestly diffluent flow aloft. To the west of this axis of
slow moving cells was a forward propagating and loosely organized
cluster of thunderstorms along the west-central IA/MO border.

The forward propagating cluster is expected to maintain a west to
east track in the short term. Given the orientation of the
initiating boundary/front aligned with the mean wind and available
instability, it seems plausible that hourly rainfall rates of 1-3
inches in an hour will continue along a relatively narrow axis
from northern MO into far southern IA and western IL over the next
3-4 hours. These high rates from slow movement or training of
cells may result in flash flooding with potential for an
additional 2-4 inches of rain (locally higher) through 04Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!59xWB8QhBVmeEa7EEfjFVzmZijgANAV96YvXpiIgc3mFPqeUyGirJHO8RKvoqVbu0D638Pp7V7t2DN9cedI9vzOsVOg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41129066 40889009 40339019 39999093 39789272
40039414 40779407 40979371 41109207

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 02:41:06

AWUS01 KWNH 050240
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-050615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0942
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...far southwestern NM into southeastern/southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050238Z - 050615Z

Summary...Flash flooding will remain possible for another few
hours from the NM Bootheel westward into far southeastern AZ.
Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be likely and localized storm
totals over 2 inches will be possible.

Discussion...02Z satellite and radar imagery showed scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms over the Bootheel of NM into
Cochise and Graham counties, with an overall movement toward the
west on convective outflow. Overlap of convection with a personal
weather station in northern Cochise County showed 0.64 inches of
rain in 15 minutes ending at 02Z, an example of the high short
term rates with the ongoing activity. Additional cells were noted
south of the border into Mexico where SPC mesoanalysis showed
MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg, falling off sharply with northward
extent into southeastern AZ along with increasing CIN with
northward extent. PW values have increased a little since the
mid-afternoon, remaining slightly above average for early August.

As the cells from Mexico and far southern AZ/NM continue to
advance downstream toward the west, congealing into a compact
convective cluster is expected with motion following Corfidi
vectors generally toward the west at a progressive pace. However,
there is good model agreement from the HRRR/RRFS and recent runs
of the WoFS to support a localized flash flood concern over the
next 3-4 hours evolving westward from the southern AZ/NM border
into remaining portions of southern Cochise County and Santa Cruz
County, possibly extending into eastern/central Pima County
overnight.

The 23Z-02Z WoFS has been consistent with high probabilities
(70-90+ percent) of 1+ inches across southern Hidalgo into
southern Cochise and Santa Cruz counties through 06Z. Also of note
is the 90th percentile shows 2-4 inches for southern Cochise
County for the same time period, representative of potential spot
maxima. While the threat looks to stay south of the Tucson metro,
a localized flash flood threat will remain for mainly southern
portions of the MPD threat area through 06Z, at which point the
threat of high rain rates appears to shift primarily south of the
border.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8qo6y5sKRcE-KIsO4RzqG_1gxxgQ674rVgw_eWJHthMracitsdcBJedkKjlwAgtOAsdHVXZiN71g9ZafUfyrq7u2CVI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32380998 32260848 31690802 31330801 31140831
31111054 31311203 31701262 32091259 32321170

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 18:51:06

AWUS01 KWNH 101850
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-110030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0997
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101849Z - 110030Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to advance
south and east this afternoon across portions of the central
Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. A localized flash flood threat
will exist, including for the urban I-95 corridor from northern VA
through southeast PA and much of central and northern NJ.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows a long-lived MCS
advancing across central WV through far western MD and up through
central PA. This activity will be moving downstream in to an
increasingly unstable environment across the Piedmont and coastal
plain areas of the Mid-Atlantic, including the sensitive I-95
urban corridor.

MLCAPE values from south-central WV through northern VA and into
southern PA are upwards of 2500 J/kg, with PWs locally near 1.75
inches. This coupled with as much as 30 to 40 kts of effective
bulk shear should promote convective sustenance with the MCS.
Additional cell development is possible out ahead of it near the
more favored southerly flow convergence zones near the northern
Chesapeake Bay region and also the more orographically favored
areas of north-central to northeast MD, south-central to southeast
PA, and into central and northern NJ.

The latest hires CAMS are not doing the best job in handling the
current spatial character or overall intensity of the MCS, but the
environment is conducive for the ongoing convection and additional
cells to produce rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour. The overall
forward propagation of the MCS activity will tend to mitigate the
threat for flash flooding, but sufficient orographic focus of
convective cells, and at least some episodic instances of
cell-training may allow for some spotty 2 to 3 inch rainfall
totals.

This would favor concerns for localized flash flooding, and
especially along the more sensitive I-95 urban corridor.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7g_48oSa83h7om7Fd0r98to_7WcLmiZ4Yg4q6P6iyByvHGR5AIgbDdSW1UxXOwa5b1KOexWKLF2kX-MtCVrVZjn4eSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41777534 41717427 41197374 40107384 39177466
38187609 37577781 37387902 37328071 37718180
38118217 38568203 38768151 38828026 39347882
40277743 41217640

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 18:07:54

AWUS01 KWNH 101807
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-102330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0996
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...East-central GA...Central SC...Southeast NC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101805Z - 102330Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, intense thunderstorms within deep moisture
axis will have limited flow for significant organization but
efficient pulse-like cycles capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates. Weak but unidirectional flow suggests some repeating or colliding outflow
boundaries may result in localized higher totals, especially near
sea-breeze interaction. Isolated to widely-scattered localized
flash flooding is considered possible afternoon to evening.

DISCUSSION...RAP analysis and CIRA LPW denote a deep layer
moisture axis across central GA, central SC into southeast NC with
broad 2.25-2.4" total PWats. Solid insolation has resulted in
temperatures rising into the low 90s and with modified 12z RAOB
soundings, become supportive of 3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep
layer flow is also parallel to the axis of moisture but is very
weak with limited inflow and barring some exposure to a dual "jet"
structure over Southern NC with right entrance to 45kt 250mb jet
and left exit to 40kt jet across the northern portions of
MS/AL/GA; organization will be limited. Still, strong updrafts
and ample moisture will support efficient deep layer tropical shower/thunderstorm activity capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates with maybe
one or two updraft cycles before kicking outflows north and south
to initiate new development.

While the flow/steering is weak, it still remains unidirectional
and generally parallel to the moisture/instability axis. This
suggest isolated mergers or short-term repeating is possible for
residency to reach 90+ minutes supporting highly focused and
widely scattered 3"+ totals which depending on intersection with
towns/cities may result in low-end but sufficient rapid inundation
flooding. This risk slightly increases toward the location of
best divergence aloft in the dual jet structure in SE NC, but
mainly because the sea-breeze will be slowly retrograding with the
westerly flow...further suggesting further increase in
time/residency at a random location or two further east in the
area of concern. All considered flash flooding is possible, but
isolated to widely scattered and highly focused.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5FUAmGdfzQzja-85916I7zMqnjzwxk0JTM1CbAVIBdIi03GzatJ-YklJl0jXlwkOGq2zuG1OAzbBO9hbUi_wVjtPTAU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35397714 35177643 34757623 34487661 34417729
34047774 33837788 33727817 33587874 33087914
32797997 32878128 32948257 33098354 33908365
34288230 34558104 34768025 35277842

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 20:01:58

AWUS01 KWNH 102001
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0998
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102000Z - 110200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
foster a threat again for isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding. The normally dry washes, slot canyons and burn scar
locations will be at greatest risk for impacts going through early
this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with LightningCast data shows convective initiation taking place
along the Mogollon Rim of AZ and also adjacent areas of southwest
UT. Some hints of CI are also showing up across portions of
southwest CA involving the Peninsular Range. Strong diurnal
heating through solar insolation is promoting enhanced
surface-based instability parameters with SBCAPE values across
portions of western AZ upwards of 2000 to 3000 J/kg.

PWs are elevated across the region, and especially north of the
Gulf of CA across southeast CA and southwest AZ where values of
1.75+ inches are noted. These are a solid 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal and this moisture coupled with the
increasing boundary layer instability will promote high rainfall
rates capable of reaching 1.5 inches in as little as 30 minutes
with the stronger convective cells that develop.

The visible satellite imagery shows two very well-defined MCVs
involving portions of far southern NV and northwest AZ. This
energy combined with differential heating and orographics should
facilitate convective growth over the next several hours. Adjacent
areas near the Mogollon Rim and also down across the Peninsular
Range of southwest CA should see an environment conducive for
convection to develop and expand in coverage as well.

It should be noted that the latest RAP analysis shows a belt of
about 30 kts of effective bulk shear across central and southern
AZ, and this may help drive some organization to convection that
initially focuses near the Mogollon Rim, but then advances
westward over the open deserts and toward more populated/urbanized
areas including Phoenix.

Some spotty 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals will be possible where any
storms tend to become anchored near areas of higher terrain.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible as
a result, with the normally dry washes, slot canyons and burn scar
locations at greatest risk as usual for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-t2_wALDzsDb1YhDSVhiemJPrQtdv0oEGrxi0OsalkgXNYU_B0-id-x_iuQSgXEdKId_clhrspPwiT6EguvsFSpQDWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...LKN...LOX...PSR...SGX...SLC...
TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38951154 38681074 37971051 36701110 35931110
35361077 34851017 34550951 33860869 32430859
31410933 31311131 31871333 32211483 32291624
32651694 33551725 34181809 34761797 34791716
35071656 35681649 37021629 38351481 38891316

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 00:23:36

AWUS01 KWNH 110023
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-110615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0999
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
822 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110022Z - 110615Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates will
expand in coverage going into the overnight hours. Cell-training
concerns will exist, and this will promote a general likelihood
for areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a
low-amplitude mid to upper-level shortwave trough traversing
central and northern IL with some evidence of a weak MCV just
ahead of it moving into western IN. This energy coupled with a
gradually strengthening low-level jet by later this evening should
help facilitate a developing axis of heavy showers and
thunderstorms.

Already the airmass is extremely unstable across northern IL down
through central IN and into western OH, with MLCAPE values of 4000
to 5000 J/kg. This extreme instability is being aided by very high
surface dewpoints reaching into the mid to upper 70s. Overall, PWs
are on the order of 1.75 to 2.0 inches, and this combination of
moisture and extreme instability will favor an environment
conducive for extreme rainfall rates.

There has been some evidence of a warm nose near 800 mb (as
evidenced by the 18Z KDVN RAOB) in association with an EML that
was tending to suppress surface-based convection over the last
several hours. However, recent radar and satellite trends finally
show convection developing and expanding in coverage across parts
of northern IL and northern IN as the upstream shortwave energy
arrives. This energy coupled with a slowly strengthening westerly
low-level jet and the strong downstream pool of instability should
promote a further expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm
activity over the next several hours.

An excellent environment will be in place overnight for
cell-training given alignment of convection with the westerly
deeper layer steering flow. As some cold pool activity becomes
established, this may allow for convection to lose some latitude
in time and drop more to the southeast. Generally areas from
northern IL through northern IN and down through central OH and
possibly western WV will be at risk at least going through 06Z.
Additional cell-training rounds of convection will be likely after
this time frame across the Upper OH Valley.

Rainfall rates of up to 2 to 3 inches/hour are expected with the
stronger storms, with some localized storm totals of 3 to 5 inches
possible where cell-training occurs. These heavier totals are
likely to be in relatively narrow swaths. Areas of flash flooding
will be likely given the high rainfall rates and storm total
potential.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!73v6MBEYypnjrDgMi2nTyVx8UAK4505GAF7h1cdPcJfSFHvX9i-SoIYoDlM1pORLJ7IUgDkN0PS19QagdlfLwXixW8M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...LOT...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41898657 41758513 41458370 40828189 40318080
39878031 39448016 38998041 38708133 39018247
39798432 40318557 41078781 41718777

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 01:37:16

AWUS01 KWNH 110137
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-110600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1000
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
935 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Northern NY...Northern VT...Northern NH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110135Z - 110600Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue across
portions of northern NY and northern New England over the next few
hours. Some localized cell-training may result in some areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows a couple
bands of loosely organized convection impacting portions of
northern NY and northern New England as a shortwave trough digging
across southeast Ontario and southern Quebec amplifies into the
St. Lawrence River Valley. Meanwhile, a warm front is attempting
to lift northeastward up across New England as surface low
pressure approaches southern Quebec.

A nose of MLCAPE values reaching 1500+ J/kg as edged into northern
NY and is combining with 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear to
promote some storm-scale organization. The activity is also be
influenced by areas of higher terrain/orographics and deeper layer
ascent associated with DPVA.

The combination of these ingredients will support convection
continuing for at least a few more hours, with multiple bands of
convection advancing across northern NY and also adjacent areas of
northern VT and northern NH. This will include the Green and White
Mountains. Some cell-training concerns may exist for at least a
couple of hours given the current nature of the activity.

Rainfall rates of up to 1 to 2 inches/hour, some localized storm
totals of 2 to 3+ inches will be possible. This may result in
there being some areas of flash flooding for the sensitive areas
of the higher terrain and adjacent slopes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5azAGEb_3c7XhzwUfffthesQWyRdvJZSsEMPycDQ_fW_WjGmSzrMDKD_1DkiMeAfEIARdW4wsPh9YWk-c_hGPETsJ4M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44997361 44997253 44997141 44527094 43947119
43687255 43807389 44157510 44507551 44927542

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 02:06:10

AWUS01 KWNH 110156
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1001
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
954 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110154Z - 110730Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the evening hours which will likely support some
additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
scattered areas of cold-topped convection continuing to impact the
Southwest U.S., with some of the coldest/deepest convection
occurring over portions of central and southern AZ. MLCAPE values
vary a bit across the region, but are locally as high as 1500 to
2500 J/kg where the atmosphere has not been convectively
overturned yet. This is especially the case across southwest AZ.
Instability is also seen persisting over southeast CA, with a nose
of this aimed up into far southern NV and to a lesser extent
southwest UT.

A couple of MCVs are still in place over far southern NV and
southwest UT, and are generally drifting northward around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge. They will still be
capable of working in tandem with the leftover instability and
orographics for some additional areas of convection over the next
few hours. However, generally the greatest remaining threat of
convection will be down across central and southern AZ where
elevated instability and as much as 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk
shear will favor convective sustenance and organization through
the remainder of the evening hours.

Rainfall rates with the continuing monsoonal shower and
thunderstorm activity may again be locally as high as 1.5 inches
in as little as 30 minutes. Some storms in radar imagery are also
showing some spotty evidence of backbuilding, and this will only
enhance the hourly rainfall potential. The latest experimental
WoFS guidance suggests additional rainfall totals of 2 to 2.5
inches where these stronger storms in central and southern AZ tend
to persist.

Given the current convective trends, additional areas of flash
flooding will be likely for at least a few more hours, and
especially across areas of central and southern AZ. The threat
will be more isolated across far southern NV and southern UT.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!96mVYIXEhbT6iQounQI_7l87cbpIJkc013f3j50nOplZVmU1iZAorUL1e8h6xuNcASR8S15n1bcjYE2pqBMpk0fux7k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SGX...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38551135 37721034 36490991 35370914 34680870
34090849 33280845 32560861 31870897 31530937
31311009 31391153 31871333 32211483 32321599
32651673 33161697 33761709 34401703 35231682
36231624 37661484 38501293

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 05:50:20

AWUS01 KWNH 110549
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-111100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1002
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110548Z - 111100Z

Summary...An MCS featuring training thunderstorms with 2"/hr
rainfall rates will move steadily eastward overnight. This MCS
will create regions of 2-4" of rainfall with locally higher
amounts possible. This may result in flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery tonight shows a broad cloud
shield with temps to -60C associated with an MCS dropping
southeast out of Ohio. Within this broad shield, locally cooler
cloud tops reaching below -70C are reflective of still
strengthening updrafts within thunderstorms embedded within the
larger convective cluster. Recent hourly rainfall from MRMS within
these thunderstorms has been above 2"/hr, which through training
has created 6-hr QPE of 2-4", with a local maxima near Roseville
and New Lexington, OH of more than 6". Multiple flash flood
warnings are already in effect for this MCS.

The environment will remain supportive of this MCS tracking
steadily E/SE the next several hours. 850mb inflow of around 30
kts is generally from the west, but this is favorable for
thermodynamic transport as PWs upstream are 1.7 to 1.9 inches
collocated with MUCAPE above 2000 J/kg. This is providing a focus
for convective development along the convergent nose stretching
from eastern OH through western MD, with additional lift provided
via height falls downstream of a shortwave trough digging out of
OH, with what appears to be an embedded MCV (in radar) leading to
locally accelerated flow and ascent as well.

The CAMs suggest this activity will begin to wane as it moves
east, and while the environment downstream into the eastern
Mid-Atlantic is less supportive than the Ohio Valley, the
continued advection of favorable thermodynamics could allow this
to progress much farther east than modeled. The recent HRRR,
RAP13, and Nam3km have at least some semblance of this occurring,
although they too seem to be under-doing the current activity. For
this reason confidence is modest as to how far east the excessive
rain threat will truly exist with this MCS, but with improving
thermodynamics supporting 2"/hr rainfall, and aligned Corfidi
vectors/mean 0-6km winds suggesting training, 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts is possible.

Additionally favorable for flash flooding is that this MCS will
track across vulnerable soils, both due to recent rainfall as well
as the general sensitivity of this region due to terrain. 3-hr FFG
is as low as 1" in the Central Appalachians/eastern Ohio Valley,
for which the HREF indicates has a 20-25% chance of exceedance. At
this time the greatest risk for additional flash flooding appears
to remain west of the Fall Line, but if this holds together more
substantially, downstream impacts may need to be messaged by
morning.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5D5WHoqtxbNYsfC9PR7mXpqfyYBn-L5IF3k8LH9gRTtC43Zz4m2gzJX5UI8x8LBTyJvkeVlL4TWljmyjVuduO1eoODY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41478278 41358126 40667928 40477886 39817766
39367736 38947758 38157886 37858056 38328222
39988307

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 07:03:50

AWUS01 KWNH 110703
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-111200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1003
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110701Z - 111200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift
westward overnight across southern Arizona. Hourly rainfall may
eclipse 1 inch in some areas, leading to instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows renewed
convective development across far southwest New Mexico and into
southeast Arizona. This activity is blossoming downstream of a
modest mid-level impulse rotating westward beneath the monsoon
ridge. Additionally, an MCV is evident as a small cyclonic spin
embedded within a larger convective cluster over Pinal county.
This forcing for ascent is impinging into more robust
thermodynamics reflected by GPS measured PWS around 1.5-1.6 inches
overlapped with MUCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg, and this is
resulting in recent MRMS hourly rainfall that has been as high as
0.75 to 1.25 inches.

As the shortwave and MCV continue to push west overnight, coverage
of thunderstorms is expected to increase once again. This is due
in part to the more favorable environment over south-central and
southwest Arizona, but also due to increasing bulk shear which may
reach 25-30 kts. This suggests storms could organize into clusters
to force locally enhanced ascent, and both the HREF probabilities
and the UA WRF indicate hourly rainfall could reach 1.5-2 inches
in a few locations, with the recent WoFS output also suggesting a
10% chance of 2 inches within its hourly ensemble probabilistic
output. 0-6km mean winds are expected to remain light around 5-10
kts, so although some chaotic motion is possible through any storm
interactions during cluster evolution, storm motions will
generally be slow to the west, leading to 1-2" of rain with
locally higher amounts (HREF neighborhood probabilities for 3"
10%, WoFS 90th% over 2").

While 7-day rainfall has been scattered across this area, 1-hr FFG
remains low at 0.75-1.00" for which the HREF and REFS both
indicate a modest chance for exceedance (10-15% and 15-25%,
respectively). The greatest exceedance probabilities occur in the
next few hours before the combination of nocturnal influence and
convective overturning cause this activity to wane. Until that
occurs however, the risk for flash flooding will continue.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4cZh5Ke_6JEKBPuZiWb4lGStKq4qosZwi9RGCqs8nkoCg4wxV1mHZc1M5oYX_YBAYDPxlwRGoygwCFq8Mq0AjllLgew$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34481443 34291254 33851098 33040939 32150887
31340935 31071002 31101029 31211130 31561235
32051380 32361450 32651485

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 07:48:24

AWUS01 KWNH 110748
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-111300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1004
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110746Z - 111300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand along a stationary
front early this morning. Rainfall rates within this convection
will likely reach 1-2"/hr, leading to 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a
few clusters of thunderstorms blossoming across the Upper Midwest
and Lower Great Lakes. Two clusters, one across northern Indiana
and another in southern Wisconsin have produced MRMS hourly
rainfall as much as 1", and while coverage so far has been
generally isolated, a rapid uptick in LightningCast probabilities
draped from far southeast Minnesota into far northwest Ohio
suggests additional development is likely very soon.

The overlap of forcing and thermodynamics are favorable in this
region for widespread heavy rainfall rates. A shortwave trough
ejecting from northeast Iowa will help to accelerate the low-level
jet (LLJ) to produce isentropic ascent atop a stationary boundary
analyzed by WPC. Additionally, this LLJ will transport impressive thermodynamics northeast, with PWs progged to approach 2" by
daybreak along a pinched MUCAPE gradient from 1000-3000 J/kg. This
will support both an expansion and intensification of
thunderstorms through early morning, reflected by HREF
neighborhood probabilities climbing to above 20% for 2"/hr rates.

Although the CAMs are quite different with their coverage the next
several hours, the ingredients suggest that thunderstorms will
expand first along/north of the stationary front, and then may sag
slightly south on outflows and in response to the veering of the
LLJ. Regardless of the exact footprint, propagation vectors
aligned to the mean winds, and to the boundary, suggest a high
threat for training/repeating of these rain rates. This will pose
an increasing risk for flash flooding, but especially where any
cells repeat across the more vulnerable FFGs due to urban
influence or where recent rainfall has been most prolific.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9rdrC22sou7QXnYw23Wj2oyrZBhm6FyOPaO89zcU1ZoCJT1C39LQlPKG4rHE3ySo_mk-AJyU2HA0BvkbaW6tK2bGo38$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...IND...IWX...
LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42939030 42918924 42538735 42268546 42138439
41688343 40728267 40048277 39618320 39588435
40168642 41138894 41979049 42559086

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 08:36:56

AWUS01 KWNH 110836
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-111400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1005
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Central Plains and Upper Midwest
from South Dakota through Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110834Z - 111400Z

Summary...Thunderstorms developing downstream of a potent
shortwave will expand and intensify through the early morning.
Rainfall rates will likely eclipse 2"/hr at times, which through
training could produce 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts.
Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E water vapor imagery this morning shows a
potent shortwave moving across far southeast South Dakota towards
western Iowa. This shortwave is tracking within generally W/NW
mid-level flow, nearly paralleling a surface stationary boundary
analyzed by WPC. The resulting height falls and PVA are impinging
into extreme thermodynamics characterized by MUCAPE above 4000
J/kg overlapped with PWs of 1.7 to 2.0 inches to support intense
rainfall rates which have eclipsed 1.25"/hr according to MRMS.
Although convective coverage is generally isolated so far, a noted
expansion of the LightningCast probabilities suggests more
widespread coverage will develop apace.

As the shortwave continues to track steadily E/SE, it will not
only drive locally enhanced ascent, but also force acceleration
and local backing of the LLJ. Recent VWPs indicate 850mb wind
speeds have reached 40-50 kts across NE/IA, which is efficiently
isentropically ascending the stationary front while also
transporting the impressive thermodynamics northward into the path
of this shortwave (noted clearly within the GOES-E 850-700 LPW
fields.) This will fuel widespread thunderstorm development in the
next few hours, which is supported by most of the high-res CAMs.
With bulk shear expected to be 35-45 kts, this convection should
organize into an MCS and then push rapidly E/SE through morning.
This may limit the rainfall amounts despite a 20-40% chance of
rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr, but additional development
downstream within the WAA wing could prolong rainfall before the
shortwave sweeps through. Where this occurs, 6-hr rain of 2-4" is
likely, with locally 5+" possible (30% chance from both the HREF
and REFS) although 5" probabilities from the WoFS are notably
absent with the 90th% just being over 3", so amounts this high may
be quite isolated.

Even so, parts of this area, especially northern IA and far
southern MN have received 300+% of normal rainfall the last 7
days. This has compromised soils and reduced FFG to as low as
1.5-2". While any of these intense rain rates could cause flash
flood related impacts, the greatest threat where be will any
training can occur atop these more vulnerable soils.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6B3-j6gs-L4zjbS4Tonha6kCrMJ9DNnCWtEfuq2FS0Jwty8KQ5XrTDscnfFD2HrcMJBaEdz0avg7nL-WYNGqQp5fDT4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...MKX...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44809553 44629393 44099188 43179027 42539028
42029102 41679236 41669240 41649295 41769446
42149614 42679734 43279848 44049797 44619682

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 09:46:34

AWUS01 KWNH 110946
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-111300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1006
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio Valley into the Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110944Z - 111300Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across the Ohio
Valley this morning with rain rates of 1-2"/hr. Through training,
this could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts and
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows
new thunderstorms rapidly blossoming across parts of southern Ohio
and into West Virginia. This area was recently worked over by an
MCS, but persistent thermodynamic advection on W/SW 925-850mb
winds have allowed for MUCAPE recovery sufficient for this renewed
convective growth. A shortwave exiting from southern Indiana is
providing additional ascent while locally backing the low-level
inflow as well, leading to slow moving lines of thunderstorms that
have hourly rainfall estimated from KILN of nearly 2 inches.

The CAMs are struggling with this new convective growth this
morning, so confidence in the evolution for the next several hours
is modest. However, upstream PWs measured via GPS are around
1.7-1.8 inches, or above the 90th percentile for the date, and
this is collocated with a ribbon of MUCAPE above 3000 J/kg which
has pooled south of a stationary front. The advection of this
environment has allowed for the aforementioned environmental
recovery, into which the shortwave and the convergence of the
low-level winds are driving the thunderstorms. Mean 0-6km winds
are aligned to the Corfidi vectors and this convergence axis,
suggesting the impressive training already ongoing will continue
for a few more hours. Additionally, Corfidi vectors collapsing to
just around 5 kts indicate backbuilding potential, and with rain
rates of 1-2"/hr, this could produce corridors of rain which
exceed 3" (20-30% chance from the REFS, which appears to have a
better handle on the ongoing convection).

Some of this area received excessive rainfall already overnight,
especially southeast Ohio into central West Virginia. This has
lowered the 3-hr FFG to less than 0.5" locally, but more broadly
it is 1-1.5". While the heaviest rainfall this morning should
hopefully stay just west of the hard-hit areas overnight, any
training of this rain will create new, or exacerbate ongoing,
flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8OwstVKC7OpV39uX9fsLQFpUSEWNNeyl3w0_4LWDBX5mLbewbfKkLFpAMT9U33wtgOLxMRWf154c9etsroNulyIXgQw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40488374 40388280 39378130 38738042 38358009
37838007 37348061 37178182 37658321 38458419
39088456 40018438

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 13:03:24

AWUS01 KWNH 111303
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1007
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
902 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Central IN...Southern OH...Central WV...Northeast
KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111301Z - 111900Z

Summary...Multiple thunderstorm complexes are expected to track
southeast from Indiana to West Virginia through the early
afternoon hours. Convective training across portions of this
region could produce additional 2-3 inch rainfall totals with
locally higher amounts, and given highly saturated grounds from
earlier rainfall, instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars, in conjunction with infrared
satellite imagery, indicate three relatively distinct convective
complexes across the outlook area this morning, each of which is
associated with a low-mid level vortmax embedded in enhanced WNW
flow. The strongest complex is currently over east-central Indiana
into western Ohio, and persistent back-building convection has
been ongoing over north-central Indiana for the past couple of
hours given weak Corfidi vectors aligned with the surface-6km
flow. Rainfall rates on the order of 2+ inches per hour have been
noted with the most persistent convection, and regional
observations indicate 2-4 inch rainfall totals since midnight
across portions of southeast Ohio and also west of Fort Wayne,
Indiana.

The latest CAM guidance suite continues to struggle with an
accurate depiction of the ongoing convection and its expected
evolution over the next several hours, with the HRRR and RRFS too
light compared to current radar imagery, and also some differences
with latitudinal placement of the complexes. The overall
thermodynamic environment remains favorable for a continuation of
these storms with high rainfall rates. A deep reservoir of
2000-3000 mixed layer CAPE exists just to the south of these
complexes, and strong theta-e advection from the WSW will continue
to fuel the convection, and PWs on the order of 1.75 to 2 inches.
Some instances of flash flooding are likely, especially across
areas that have received excessive rainfall over the past 24 hours.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9UD7EGV3HKdso0JV_SurUTGHIJ-y8e59mrPzf5Pah5a2y3WPl-NeoEe6Rlbvh7lUnGGcQIJy6UTx-xCuyHaycz2q_s0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LOT...LWX... PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41298682 41218614 41148549 40928404 40838324
40678231 40388133 40038075 39488011 38957983
38387976 37778010 37358093 37388194 37768284
38628431 39308532 39928621 40388676 40718717
41138721

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 15:20:48

AWUS01 KWNH 111520
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-112000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1008
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1117 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern WI...Northern IL...Northern
IN...Southern MI...Northwestern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111517Z - 112000Z

SUMMARY...An MCS tracking across northern Illinois late this
morning will support the development of additional convection with
high rainfall rates through 19Z across the outlook area. Some
instances of flash flooding will be possible with the most
peristent thunderstorm activity.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars show a long lived MCS
currently tracking across northern Illinois towards the greater
Chicago metro area. Meanwhile, a separate complex of storms has
rapidly increased in coverage and intensity across northwestern
Indiana, and recent radar scans are indicating these separate
complexes are starting to congeal into a single larger complex.
This is resulting in more back building storms with longer periods
of higher rainfall rates, in some instances over 2 inches per
hour. Mixed layer CAPE near 3000 J/kg per recent SPC mesoanalysis
and PWs near 2 inches are present near and just south of the
ongoing convection.

Although severe weather has been the primary threat thus far west
of the Rockford area, the potential for flash flooding will
increase over the new few hours as additional storms develop ahead
of the main line. There is good overall agreement in the latest
CAM guidance suite, including the current WoFS, for a swath of
additional 1-3 inch totals through 19Z, with much of this falling
within a 60-90 minute time period for any given location. Rainfall
rates should taper off after the main squall line moves through.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Wq-LlZJwmMq30OYjMOue4ydhAB4BSE3ItVuUnSerhdLSiUx0b3bnef3gJTEPBi6Bufw7vCIJrdaQqCzo2YeS63ZJIA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43318927 43248664 43038547 42558324 41458328
40818463 40348680 40228898 40738998 41409004
42048937 42958963

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 18:25:26

AWUS01 KWNH 111825
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-120000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1009
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Eastern CA...Southern NV...Western AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111822Z - 120000Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms developing in an anomalously
moist airmass are expected to increase in coverage through the
afternoon hours, with the heaviest and slower moving storms
possibly resulting in some instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Convection has already started to develop across
portions of the Desert Southwest with plenty of monsoonal moisture
in place across the region. PWs are on the order of 1 to 2 inches
across the outlook area from the lastest SPC mesoanalysis, coupled
with ample instability given 500-1500 J/kg mixed layer CAPE.
Additionally, early morning convection across central and southern
Arizona has left behind a couple of weak MCVs noted in recent
visible satellite imagery.

Once the mid and high level clouds from this morning's storms
break up further, additional solar insolation and any existing
outflow boundaries will likely aid in the development of
additional storms later this afternoon given the moist and
unstable airmass present. The current CAM guidance suite has
greater coverage of showers/storms across the Peninsular Range and
also western portions of the Mogollon Rim. Some instances of flash
flooding will be possible across brun scars or other vulnerable
terrain areas through 00Z this evening, especially for the slower
cells that develop.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5bEhdGMHT6-1KaLqW700a0GeDgk3Z_eHCEH4Rf2OGMZdCP2Wvd94L3fJr0ti49MIy1nZF9OaG-2KhgA2ZXAxJBtXhDo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SGX...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36891405 36891304 36881183 36771077 36101020
35291011 34231077 34341209 34201277 34021300
33781317 33351325 32781307 32431316 32241359
32451489 32531588 32561646 33401684 34361701
34861677 35251649 35761619 36201579 36711494

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 18:30:40

AWUS01 KWNH 111830
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-112330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1010
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Far Southern WV...Western VA...Western
NC...Eastern TN...Far Eastern KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111830Z - 112330Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cells prior to a quick moving squall line
through rough terrain should support 1.5"-1.75"/hr rates and
scattered totals of 1.5-3" which may result in localized flash
flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery and Regional RADAR mosaic
depict a mature squall line moving south-southeast through
southern WV attm. Ample deep layer moisture of 1.5-1.75" (based
on elevation) forward convergence along the squall line will
continue to support localized 1-1.5"/hr rates as the line quickly
moves though. Given complex terrain and hourly FFG values of
1-1.5"/hr scattered incidents of flash flooding continue to remain
a risk as it tracks into far W VA and NW NC in the next few hours.

Downstream, a solid cu field across the southern Appalachians
extends into the eastern foothills of North Carolina with a
distinct edge extending from near KHLX to KMWK to KGSO. This
delineates a stark surface Td drop of 5 to 6 degrees from the
mid-60s in SW VA to the low 70s even through the higher terrain of
the Smokies. With full insolation, MLCAPEs have risen to
2500-3000 J/kg across the unstable area south of the dewpoint
boundary (while remaining capped northward). Aloft, shortwave
energy that has driven the forward propagating squall line will
also provide broad scale ascent to further convective initiation along/downstream of the squall line. These cells should develop
and be very slow moving initially given the upstream
height-falls/forcing approaching. The ample moisture of 1.5-1.75"
and 15-20kts of southwesterly inflow should help to support rates
of 1.5-1.75"/hr and with residency of an hour or so, widely
scattered totals of up to 2-2.5" are possible. Combine this with
the approaching squall line and focused totals of 3"+ are
possible. FFG values are slightly higher in the Southern
Appalachians compared to areas further north (~1.5") and increase
to ~2"/hr and 2-2.5"/3hrs through the foothills to suggest, these
totals may result in localized incident(s) of flash flooding
through the evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!88yinispqaq3euv7PxLWbZJPKXR3dciB0Pz9X3S1n-VPHv--nfViAFwV3lWpwNoJkF_rvsyJaZu5sLJiC3Bfc1QeEdU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37548152 37508031 36957984 35967885 35617916
34918037 35448196 35088402 35628440 36378387
37078322 37428262

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 19:18:08

AWUS01 KWNH 111917
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1011
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Central Indiana...Southern Ohio...Northeast Kentucky...Southern WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111915Z - 120015Z

SUMMARY...Fast moving squall line with sub-hourly 1-1.5" totals
may result in urban flooding conditions through this evening,
until reaching compromised soils in foothills of Central
Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts an intense compact
shortwave/MCV crossing northern Indiana at this time. Along the
forward flank of the MCV/cyclone a mature squall line exists from
Pickway to N Butler county OH and across to Shelby, IND. Severe
winds are main concern (please refer to SPC MCD 1926 for more
details); yet, the strong convergence along the leading edge is
ingesting solid deep layer moisture environment near 2" of TPW.
Flux convergence will support very high rainfall production, but
residency is likely to limit totals to less than 1.5". However,
this may come at 15-30 minute range which would be a problem for
locally prone flashy locations and urban/hydrophobic ground
conditions. This will change as the line reaches the lower
foothills of the central Appalachians in Southern to Southeast
Ohio and WV where earlier heavy rainfall have reduced soil
capacity and lowered FFG values to below 1" for much of the the
area with spots lower than .5". As such, flash flooding will once
again become possible across those areas again later this evening.

Currently, inflow to the system is very oblique, almost parallel
with VWP showing nearly westerly inflow from 925-850mb across E
IL, S IND and N KY limiting the potential for flanking line
development at this time. There is some weak convergence for some
development from Ford, IL to Benton, IND counties, this
convergence trof along the inflow streamlines toward the MCV in N
IND is expecting some weaker backing across the Ohio Valley toward
SW flow after 22z. This should increase orthogonal isentropic
ascent over the flanking outflow boundary and increase overall
convection. The uncertainty remains on level of development with
surface rooted convection looking a bit less likely than elevated
convection in an axis a bit further eastward. Either level, deep
layer steering will be parallel to the boundary, orthogonal to the
inflow allowing for a higher potential for NW to SE training band
into the later evening hours, more likely at or after 00z. If
the axis is more elevated, it would more likely overlap areas
affected with the earlier rounds over the last few days,
reaggravating flash flooding potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5mhVsrbZLX2gNBWa92fVeGKzqeoedrzN_sL68NHWYzzHY9GDMX_e7ktScyFboKgEudnVI_Ll0jZN0TmV4UV6fpV6XJs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LOT...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40718689 40488529 40098337 39748216 39368101
38837992 37938004 37258095 37168212 37538324
38448522 39458709 40098783 40558767

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 19:19:30

AWUS01 KWNH 111919
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1011
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Central Indiana...Southern Ohio...Northeast Kentucky...Southern WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111920Z - 120100Z

SUMMARY...Fast moving squall line with sub-hourly 1-1.5" totals
may result in urban flooding conditions through this evening,
until reaching compromised soils in foothills of Central
Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts an intense compact
shortwave/MCV crossing northern Indiana at this time. Along the
forward flank of the MCV/cyclone a mature squall line exists from
Pickway to N Butler county OH and across to Shelby, IND. Severe
winds are main concern (please refer to SPC MCD 1926 for more
details); yet, the strong convergence along the leading edge is
ingesting solid deep layer moisture environment near 2" of TPW.
Flux convergence will support very high rainfall production, but
residency is likely to limit totals to less than 1.5". However,
this may come at 15-30 minute range which would be a problem for
locally prone flashy locations and urban/hydrophobic ground
conditions. This will change as the line reaches the lower
foothills of the central Appalachians in Southern to Southeast
Ohio and WV where earlier heavy rainfall have reduced soil
capacity and lowered FFG values to below 1" for much of the the
area with spots lower than .5". As such, flash flooding will once
again become possible across those areas again later this evening.

Currently, inflow to the system is very oblique, almost parallel
with VWP showing nearly westerly inflow from 925-850mb across E
IL, S IND and N KY limiting the potential for flanking line
development at this time. There is some weak convergence for some
development from Ford, IL to Benton, IND counties, this
convergence trof along the inflow streamlines toward the MCV in N
IND is expecting some weaker backing across the Ohio Valley toward
SW flow after 22z. This should increase orthogonal isentropic
ascent over the flanking outflow boundary and increase overall
convection. The uncertainty remains on level of development with
surface rooted convection looking a bit less likely than elevated
convection in an axis a bit further eastward. Either level, deep
layer steering will be parallel to the boundary, orthogonal to the
inflow allowing for a higher potential for NW to SE training band
into the later evening hours, more likely at or after 00z. If
the axis is more elevated, it would more likely overlap areas
affected with the earlier rounds over the last few days,
reaggravating flash flooding potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6qn6yCI47iwVWFYszCeXlcWMuM3ixTPxrnR0obUTzYccN76rO8zk82BoUm4oajlsmBLPQj4wprUsnyakDm6ymnzamcE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LOT...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40718689 40488529 40098337 39748216 39368101
38837992 37938004 37258095 37168212 37538324
38448522 39458709 40098783 40558767

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 22:06:58

AWUS01 KWNH 112200
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-120200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1012
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Far Southern NY
including NYC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 112200Z - 120200Z

SUMMARY...Few scattered thunderstorms oriented for possible
repeating but crossing saturated soil conditions and urban zone
may result in localized 2-3" totals and possible flash flooding
conditions through early overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and Regional RADAR mosaic shows
scattered convective development across northeast PA into northern
NJ. A weak surface low can be analyzed near KPOU along a well
defined surface stationary front that separates higher Tds air
(low 70s) to the south and low 60s to even some mid to upper 50s
across Upstate NY. The core of a 110kt jet is skirting north of
the area providing some weak divergence aloft, but also supporting
low level FGEN strengthening across the NY/PA line providing
sufficient deep layer moisture convergence along the tightening
PWat gradient in the area. Surface to 850mb cyclonic curvature
across the Poconos into Catskills even at 15kts has been
sufficient to provide ascent on conditionally unstable air mass
with 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Solid 35-40kt effective bulk
shear along with RADAR trends suggests some weak rotation in the
scattered cells to further enhance low level moisture flux
convergence. RAP TPW analysis shows a bulge nosing northeastward
through N NJ with 1.75-1.9" values to feed the strengthening
updrafts. Currently cores are fairly narrow but are broadening
with time, likely to support 1.75-2"/hr rates soon. While mean
steering flow is 30-40kts, the flow is parallel to the boundary
and the orientation of the current development, suggestive of
possible repeating/training through the late evening hours.

This is a concern given recent heavy rainfall and saturated upper
soil profiles per NASA SPoRT with 0-40cm ratios in to the upper
60s/lower 70s reaching 90th percentiles for this time of year. As
such FFG values are highly variable, but spots less than 1"/hr
exist across N NJ, with much of the area at or below 2"/hr.
Additionally, broad urban area into NYC would naturally be prone
to intense rates. While slight southward propagation is expected
and may help to deflect prolonged repeating, overall totals of
2-3" can be expected across the area of concern and with low FFG
values, localized incidents of flash flooding are considered
likely.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7oUVAp7vLgQ4TIofBGnVuYrWMpZ9RxpmsbDVYdpdoqYf4_rhxibqC8i_GotAi9xb4_xMTtakpP5SWXt_HggBB1rFciI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41537662 41537580 41377398 41037330 40647333
40477388 40247394 40027401 40177473 40647580
41257661

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 22:38:58

AWUS01 KWNH 112232
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-120400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1013
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
631 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona...Southwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112230Z - 120400Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cells emanating from larger complex over
northern Mexico, likely to increase moisture flux and rainfall
production through the early overnight period. Hourly rates of
1-1.5"/hr and similar 1-2" localized may result in incidents of
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows center of deep layer ridge
centered along the NM/CO line; while a stronger convective
cluster/complex and resultant MCV that developed in NW
Chihuahua/NE Sonora in Mexico is being drawn northwestward into
the US Desert Southwest. This is also helping to direct deeper
layer moisture northward moving the mid-level dry axis seen in
east-central AZ/west-central NM out of the area of concern and
increasing overall moisture values from less than 1" toward 1.25
and maybe locally 1.5" for lower elevations further west in S AZ.
In the lower levels stronger moisture confluence due to the
advancing MCV is filtering moisture out of the Gulf of California
through Sonora in strengthening southwesterly 850-700mb winds,
while surface to 850mb west to northwest low level flow is seen in
VWP across AZ emanating from the lower deserts of southern
Maricopa and W Pima county as well. Overall, this is increasing
instability nosing up from 1000 to 2000 J/kg along the SE
AZ/Mexico border.

The convergence and increase in moisture/unstable air has resulted
in some mountain convection development across Santa Cruz and
Cochise county with some hints starting across the Bootheel of NM
as well. As the MCV lifts north, convective expansion is expected
with rain rates increasing from .75"/hr toward 1-1.5"/hr. Cell
motions will be slow, but forward propagation into the weak inflow
may reduce residency time to less than 1-1.5 hours, so spotty 1-2"
totals are probable across portions of SE AZ and SW NM. Hard
ground conditions will likely see localized high-run off with
scattered incidents of flash flooding possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9_8yFqZbroN5zrFHCGZKCzV7xbh7Y4bAF_8AIwRkd-yfwY1OtofDglzZKxTxUOhiSwsdsld7VKWlf96kU43l9jyPwrQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32771017 32740871 32260694 31700661 31280807
31190861 31211002 31241103 31521164 32041173
32561132

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 23:20:56

AWUS01 KWNH 112320
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-120500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1014
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...South-central IND...Central & Eastern
KY...Western VA...Northeast TN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112320Z - 120500Z

SUMMARY...Repeating cells along old outflow boundary with strong
upstream developing bow/cluster to add sub-hourly 1-1.5" total may
result in scattered spots of 2-3" resulting in localized flash
flooding especially near urban centers and more rugged terrain

DISCUSSION...Active pattern of multiple quick moving bow echoes
continues to repeat through the Ohio River Valley into the
Cumberland Plateau. The second MCS is currently cross the central
Appalachians from S WV into W VA continuing severe winds
accompanied by intense burst of heavy rainfall, typically between
1-1.5" in less than 30-45 minutes. This is in the wake of an
initial decayed MCS that lowered FFG across much of the area with
lingering 100-200 cfs/sq.mi within MRMS Flash unit stream flows,
bringing them back up to 200-400 as the bow passes, reaggravating
flooding conditions.

In the wake of the second MCS, the cold pool helped to push
outflow boundary further southwest than initial expected through
southern IND into central KY. VWP depicts surface to 925 winds
have backed to southwesterly and generally orthogonal to the
boundary, as such scattered but slightly more elevated cells have
been filling in between the trailing flank near Perry/Leslie
county, back across central KY toward Casey to Meade county and
across the Ohio River to Crawford county, IND. The
advected/isentropically ascending air remains very unstable with
MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg allowing for scattered convective initiation
along the line. Updrafts are generally narrow due to weak
inflow/ascent, however, a stronger cluster over Martin county is
starting to bow out as well given the strong rear-inflow jet over
50-60kts. As such, stronger cold pool is increasing forward speed
of the bow and increasing moisture convergence to once again
result in a quick 1-1.5" total in less than 30-45 minutes.

This cluster should intersect areas affected by the weaker
isentropically forced scattered cells will result in scattered
pockets of 2-3" totals and given the heavy quick burst to end, may
result in localized flash flooding conditions given saturated
grounds. This would only be exacerbated in urban/hydrophobic
surfaces. Unlike further north with the second MCS, this third
Bowing MCS is moving through areas not affected by the first or
second round, so incidents of flash flooding may be more isolated
to scattered until reaching the more rugged terrain of the
Cumberland Plateau toward 03z. As such, flash flooding is
considered possible this evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_RZKTWTAL4BFNzhU0Rl9HXv7ZVdgSlnzgo6qPSSsL5V78q23zgCDsq19FUOrwgJJ-uuI4FN3p4wgnqQ1ERnGa2VZYu8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MRX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39168674 38828547 38498464 38198367 37878289
37628185 37508103 37178054 36278228 35698375
36618467 37348614 38258716 38728746 39088743

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 23:52:30

AWUS01 KWNH 112352
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-120500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1015
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
751 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Northern Arizona...Central Western New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112350Z - 120500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered incidents of flash flooding remain possible
into the early overnight hours along western confluent edge of
deep layer ridge with spots of 1-1.5".

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows broad area of glaciated
cirrus within the confluent zone of 500mb flow on the southwest
edge of the deep layer ridge generally coincident with the central
and eastern portions of the Mogollon Rim in AZ into the Mogollon
Mountains of W NM. However, these older glaciated weakening or
dead cells produced outflows outward from the Rim both downslope W
and SW as well as further up into the San Francisco Plateau
providing sufficient convergence on the remaining unstable air
where 1000-1500 J/kg are being utilized with these new developing
cores. Given upstream stronger flow at 700mb, this is also
building eastward through west-central NM allowing for some
downstream repeating into E AZ as well. Still, persistent upslope
flow of 5-10kts will provide the best moisture flux and
convergence over the next few hours, perhaps resulting in
short-term effective stationary motions given inflow counters the
deep layer flow wanting cells to move NNW. Deep layer moisture
remains solid for monsoon at around 1 to 1.25" suggesting hourly
rates up to 1" and spots of 1-1.5" remain possible resulting in
scattered possible incidents of flash flooding through the
remainder of the evening into the early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8TM-g7FfEwNXooLodUa-y_9r6_RePfS2oHK8M-n5OOIBBCQdq5fAqUaNZNQRezWvmNzWWoA5KHqW-Jpzv3ZDMqCw4rQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36831205 36201139 35411021 35150945 34910836
34470795 33930824 33540863 33130935 33101018
33641136 34631262 35811300 36741282

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 16:16:00

AWUS01 KWNH 251615
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Areas affected...Northern FL...Southern GA...Coastal SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251615Z - 252215Z

SUMMARY...Potent thunderstorms containing excessive rainfall rates
around 3"/hr may cause flash flooding in poor drainage spots and
within urbanized areas.

DISCUSSION...At 1530Z, Doppler Radar and GOES East were
highlighting developing thunderstorms within a growing field of
bubbling cumulus clouds over northern FL. The highlighted region
remains downwind of a low-mid level circulation center situated
northwest of Tallahassee where 700mb vorticity advection is being
directed towards northern FL and southern GA. The thermodynamic
profile is ripe for torrential rainfall rates within developing
thunderstorms. The 12Z JAX sounding already contained ~2,800
MLCAPE and PWs >2.0". The 12Z CHS sounding did not feature as much
moisture or instability, but a cold front over southern SC and
southern GA aiding in the production of scattered storms, within a
1.75-2.0" PW and >2,000 MLCAPE environment, would support >2"/hr
rainfall rates this afternoon.

By mid-afternoon, PWs will surpass 2.25" and MLCAPE will increase
to >3,000 J/kg over much of northern FL. Typical sea breeze
circulations will fire off scattered storms, and even as
convective temperatures are met and CIN erodes, storms farther
inland are also likely to develop. West of I-95, 1-hr FFGs that
are above 3.0" in most cases, but areas along I-95 such as
Jacksonville and Savannah are closer to 2.5". Given the storms are
likely to be slow movers (12Z JAX sounding shows <10 kts cloud
layer storm motions), storms within this kind of environment will
be capable of producing close to 3"/hr rainfall rates and locally
higher rates cannot be ruled out. The new 12Z HREF probabilistic
guidance does show some low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for 1-3hr
FFG in far southeast GA this afternoon.

Flash flooding is possible this afternoon with the urbanized
corridors along I-95 and I-10 most at-risk. Typical poor drainage
spots and low-lying areas may also be prone to flash flooding
through early evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-amZoqF-06wALdFFAZkzs3Q_eB1gAOuJXKD7ivZBFwjDNM1hciEUqJ6-NjQlfeC6AroD67IYirSugAKgqxLQjgKEpkw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32887983 32587981 32348009 32038046 31758076
31458097 30898100 30278097 29808089 29298077
28908072 28638076 28448109 28638158 28988186
29428228 29768256 30068273 30218287 30678296
30988290 31098278 31368264 31648247 31918219
32088200 32208172 32528093 32758034 32878007

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 22:05:28

AWUS01 KWNH 252204
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-260402-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
603 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252202Z - 260402Z

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will
materialize through the early evening hours leading to isolated
flash flood concerns within more urbanized zones and flood prone
locations across the Colorado Front Range into the neighboring
High Plains from Nebraska down through the Texas Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite and radar composite note a steady
increase in convective coverage across the Central and Southern
Rockies this afternoon with a few stronger cells migrating
eastward across the High Plains of Northeast New Mexico.
Environmental conditions are ripe for strong thunderstorm genesis
within the confines of the Central and Southern High Plains as the
area remains parked under a broad mid-level ridge providing ample
diurnal heating atop a relatively buoyant airmass present east of
the Continental Divide. At the surface, a couple quasi-stationary
fronts are situated across NE into the WY Front Range, as well as
a secondary stationary front bisecting the Southern High Plains
between OK and the TX Panhandle, arcing back into the adjacent
Northeastern NM High Plains. Strongest cell cluster over NM is
currently a benefactor of the frontal placement with some
anchoring occurring from a stronger mesocyclone development in the
past hour. With SBCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg over the Western
High Plains, suitably buoyant environment with modest mid-level
shear on the northeast flank of the ridge will supplement any
convective elements through the next several hours with an
improvement in the low-level shear potential after sunset with the
addition of a LLJ structure initiating after 00z.

Recent trends in guidance have leaned into a consistent growth of
convection across southwest NE down through the CO Front Range as
we head into the late-afternoon and early evening time frame with
a likely genesis of supercellular modes in the initial development
stage as the formidable thermodynamic conditions favor when
coupled with the 30-40kt Effective Bulk Shear across the region.
Cell mergers will materialize this evening with supercell modes
shifting to more multi-cell clusters with potentially strong
enough cores to produce heavy rainfall rates upwards of 2"/hr as
noted via the latest 18z HREF hourly neighborhood probs. Localized
totals between 2-4" are plausible in areas that are directly
impacted by either the supercell initiation, and/or the eventual
multi-cell clusters. Primary areas of focus for flash flooding
will be the more urban zones due to higher run off capabilities,
as well as those more prone areas within low-water crossings in
areas of eastern CO into western KS, down into the TX Panhandle.
Other area of concern remains near Pueblo within the zone
encompassing the Aspen Acres Burn Scar where very sensitive
grounds remain and a Flood Watch remains in effect. Isolated to
widely scattered flash flood potential will exist in the above
areas through the first half of the evening.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4wq0FLcFWr28aSacsnH4Z84SpAwhhc3U8GQV0F5Hb1iws5cpiy0TAiEuqT8YOleN9BmYvGV0OSdPmo2uv3C8E9xvARw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41590346 41510262 41160146 40880086 40310042
39540033 38610044 37550050 37010059 36560056
36060066 35420120 35180285 35400444 36080465
37050482 38710460 40330470 41220505 41570416

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 04:11:44

AWUS01 KWNH 260411
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-261009-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1126
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Areas affected...eastern Colorado, western Kansas, southwestern
Nebraska, far southeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260409Z - 261009Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential continues across the
discussion area for a few more hours, but may become more
conditional with time.

Discussion...Scattered deep convection continues across the
eastern Texas Panhandle and within a small cluster of storms over
southeastern CO and southwestern KS. The TX Panhandle storms have
formed a complex that is currently weakening, but has prompted
widespread overturning and low-level stabilization from that area
northward into the CO/KS/OK border region. Farther north (from
the cluster of cells near Lamar/Garden City north to southwest
NE), the airmass remains supportive of at least isolated
convection (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE, light easterly low-level flow,
1.1-1.5 inch PW). Storms are slow moving due to weak kinematics
aloft (10-20 knots mean flow), with a couple areas of FFG
exceedance noted in southeast CO/southwest NE over the past hour
or so. Weak/subtle mid-level troughs are noted per
satellite/objective analyses (southwest NE, eastern WY) that could
help overcome convective inhibition and force isolated to
scattered thunderstorms through the night that could result in
additional FFG exceedances -- especially in eastern CO where FFG
thresholds are around 1 inch/hr. Storms (and attendant flash
flood risk) are expected to remain isolated, however. This risk
will persist through at least 10Z/5a central (given convective
signal in the most recent HREF suite).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9cwjdp1Pc-nEe5y4YYu4VCf_fedxlePDAxlaFI6YPRQktEQHrN7yaKXfRTss2SdP0LruTeYHCl0Jh-RSgDAukhb4Djs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42000316 41810204 40900011 40159940 37939927
37080012 37420305 40390422 41730453

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 16:01:50

AWUS01 KWNH 281601
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-282200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0876
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern Pennsylvania through Northern New
Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281600Z - 282200Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of storms will move through eastern
Pennsylvania and into New Jersey through the afternoon. The
strongest cores will be capable of 3 inch/hour rates, which are
likely to cause flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A very impressive shortwave trough over central
Pennsylvania this afternoon will provide the forcing for multiple
rounds of storms which will sweep northeastward across
southeastern Pennsylvania and into northern New Jersey today. The
first round of storms is moving across east-central Pennsylvania
now. This will likely serve to mostly prime the soils for later
rounds of storms. Where the convection gets held up, localized
flash flooding is probable. The main show as far as flash flooding
is concerned will be with the second round currently moving into
central PA now (not shown). This round of storms will also be
moving quickly, but due to destabilization of the column in
between rounds of storms, plentiful forcing both in the lower and
upper levels of the atmosphere, and robust moisture advection from
the west, the storms will have no trouble producing rates as high
as 3 inches per hour. One caveat to this first round not producing
much flash flooding is that widely scattered storms over far
eastern Pennsylvania near the Poconos and Delaware River, as well
as storms trying to form out ahead of this first line could cause
heavy rain to persist locally for far longer than the surrounding
areas as all of the convection sweeps through. This in turn could
cause localized flash flooding, particularly in any urban areas
such as Allentown.

CAMs guidance in general shows this first round of storms
continuing northeast into northern New Jersey, eventually
approaching the NYC metro, likely as a more congealed line.
However, the second round will follow right behind it. The second
round will grow upscale into its own cluster of storms, that
tracks east across southern Pennsylvania parallel to the
Mason-Dixon line, but likely adding new storms that form out ahead
of it. With this second round, scattered instances of urban and
small stream flash flooding are likely, with isolated instances of
significant flash flooding where the heaviest rains persist the
longest. By the 22Z end of this discussion, the storms should be
moving through Allentown and approaching the western suburbs of
Philadelphia. Thus, an update to this MPD is expected by then.

Finally, from Harrisburg northeast along the I-81 corridor, there
remains some uncertainty. The rain will likely be much more
consistent in this area, as well as have some of the best terrain
influences worsening any localized flash flooding, however major
instability (greater than 1,500 J/kg) will struggle to make it
that far north, so the flash flooding risk there has competing
factors to overcome, and will likely not be quite as widespread as
areas further east, especially the urban metros.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8VlYg8nQuUP_H7BSGqrWG3nqvwv6KpnjAt_-mUK_tiu_VTeYmbOkrqbYBasxd0yqokGXQQTVk8AzdWlIVfhYjLfbNNo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41487531 41387482 41167451 41007435 41007435
40727433 40447438 39997467 39787508 39697558
39767654 39797714 39917736 40197749 40437742
40657719 40997674 41207626 41317588

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 05:16:48

AWUS01 KWNH 050516
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-051100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0943
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...SE Nebraska...SW to Central Iowa...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050515Z - 051100Z

SUMMARY...Favorable back-building repeating environment for
elevated thunderstorms overnight. Hourly rates of 1.5-2"/hr
probable to support streaks of 2-4" totals and possible incidents
of flash flooding through late overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Environment is starting to recover well with return
moisture, instability advection from strengthening and broaden LLJ
(25-30kts) in the wake of the initial convective cluster/complex
that continues but is weakening as it enters western IL. While
the surface low and front remain well south in central KS into
northern MO; the 850-700mb frontal zone is sharpening/steepening
in advance of approaching broad larger scale trough over the
Higher Northern and Central Plains as well as the nose of a
70-90kt 250mb jet core out of WY. Diffluence over the Missouri
Valley and the dPVA aloft has aided the strengthening of the LLJ
and FGEN from central NEB through central IA. As the LLJ
slows/broadens at the 850-700mb front, speed and therefore
moisture convergence can overcome the slowly degrading MUCINH and
exploit the steeper lapse rates aloft and therefore pool of
1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE from the western edge of the LLJ axis
across central KS to south-central NEB eastward.
As such, RADAR/GOES-E 3.9um has seen broad area of agitated Cu
grow and cool to scattered CBs across E NEB and SW IA.

CIRA LPW and RAP analysis denotes ample moisture pooled between
the surface and 850mb front across NE KS into SW IA will support
some modest rainfall efficiency as the convective complex
develops/expands across the area over the next few hours. A few
cells are broad enough at this point to support 1-1.5"/hr rates
but this is expected to increase as the larger scale forcing
further helps flux convergence, eventually supporting 1.75-2"/hr
rates. The upper level flow is fairly solid but slightly veered
through the low-level steering from SW to W across 700-400mb,
especially as the preceding wave is helping to flatten 500-1000mb
thickness pattern for a favorable propagation more due east to
promote west to east training/ repeating steering profile. The
more concerning factor is the convective generation point appears
to be stationary or even slightly retrograding over the next few
hours across SE NEB as the approaching jet/dPVA further expands
allowing for a favorable back-building environment. This will
support a longer duration of training especially closer to the source/development point in SE NEB/SW IA.

Spots of 2-4" are probable and may result in localized flash
flooding conditions. There are Hi-Res CAMs even supportive of
higher values in the 5"+ range and this remains a viable
possibility, though these are the traditionally hotter solutions
of the RRFS/NAM-Nest and FV3-LAM, but the setup would not be too
surprising if this were to manifest through 12z, but confidence is
not quite high enough given higher FFG to consider broader areas
of flash flooding likely; but it is close. At this point will
hold off and keep the consideration for flash flooding as
possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-FmUlig2A4m2GQHm1WfbULYorEhYwRz6nDw_-lfPthQ255VG-mrJyZENdAQiUCV4J1vatMa-4KXc-kxqzs0DWC-XpdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42469355 42239298 41809258 41419243 41039247
40639285 40609353 40629466 40629567 40629648
40669723 41149734 41569699 41969595 42379434

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 05:50:52

AWUS01 KWNH 050550
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-051145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0944
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...Much of Maryland...DC...Delaware...Northern
Virginia...Eastern West Virginia Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050550Z - 051145Z

SUMMARY...Narrow but highly efficient/focused slow moving showers
capable of 1.5-2"/hr and focused 2-3"+ totals may result in widely
scattered localized incidents of flash flooding through early
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a classic comma head closed
low over the southern to central Appalachians with broadening
downshear deformation shield of mid to upper-clouds. Embedded
within is a weak 'warm-sector' shortwave over northern VA starting
to shear/shift northeast within the anticyclonic ridge of the mid
to upper-level jet entrance toward the northeast. Deep layer
warm-advection just advance and trailing the wave can be seen very
well in deep layer moisture fields with back-arched nose of
enhanced 2-2.3" Total PWats from the Blue Ridge of N VA extending
southwest into south-central VA. VWP show broad cyclonic curvature
into the effective TROWAL for solid moisture convergence axis in
the vicinity of I-95 and west. A wedge of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
exists from I-95 east across S MD into the southern Delmarva.

So while winds and instability is weak, it is sufficient in a high
potential vorticity environment at the confluence of a broad WAA
regime. Scattered narrow updraft cells are starting to break out
across central to northern VA. Deep warm cloud layer (15Kft+) and
ample moisture support efficient tropical rain-showers with rates
of 1.5-2"/hr. This setup has been consistent with good
historical track record for heavy rainfall production though there
is a bit greater deep layer speed than the prior day or so across
S VA/E NC; so residency may be a bit less than those areas.
However, given proximity to the slow moving deep layer deformation
zone across the region; cells should slow and occasionally pause
to allow for spots of 2-3" possible this morning. Given proximity
to the Washington Baltimore urban corridor, these showers while
very local are prone for localized flash flooding concerns if they
intersect the right area(s), this includes the foothills and peaks
of the Blue Ridge and eastern ridges of the Appalachians which may
have additional low level/upslope support. As such, widely
scattered, localized flash flooding is considered possible through
daybreak.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Aas9thOp771ttjlKPscsHROKR8rJQ2GnKESRv9PftuqTnXRm3r05nI22DkPGqnVNXltJySNpIfIKvZ4znBP-KW4T1k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39667742 39667651 39657568 39067530 38627508
38237516 37907561 37757715 37777791 38067861
38577890 39317879 39657830

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 10:56:24

AWUS01 KWNH 051056
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-051554-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0945
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...southern Iowa, northern Missouri, far western
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051054Z - 051554Z

Summary...An MCS with training convection will persist for a few
more hours this morning, posing an isolated flash flood risk.

Discussion...Training convection has materialized in earnest
generally along an axis between US 34 and the IA/MO border.
Within this axis, areas of 1.5-2 inch/hr rain rates were locally
exceeding FFG in spots, posing an isolated flash flood risk. The
storms were located on the nose of 25-35 kt 850mb flow centered
over eastern KS and northwestern MO, with strong convergence axis
oriented parallel to steering flow aloft favoring training.

The overall scenario for flash flooding will continue for the next
couple of hours given a continued presence of elevated instability
(7C/km midlevel lapse rates) and moisture (1.8 inch PW).
Low-level flow into the axis of convective training will gradually
veer and weaken through the morning hours, eventually allowing for
storms to re-orient and perhaps lose their training character.
While some of this activity may reach western Illinois through
13-14Z, flash flood potential with eastern extent is a bit in
doubt at this time and remains contingent on the degree of
convective training.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7--HqbmklLKMyvNkBvGFGVW-LnfXzpJQ848dwdO4SzB_Ec6vIRQ4QpJrBcClMxhC649XW5tHf6cRv4TzBJEGuNwtSD8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41759444 41689174 41079069 40329069 39949150
40049439 41489554

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 11:24:30

AWUS01 KWNH 051124
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-051622-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0946
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...coastal areas of North and South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051122Z - 051622Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible on an isolated
basis this morning - primarily along coastal areas.

Discussion...Deep convection has remained persistent across the
Gulf Stream and near-coastal areas over the past several hours.
The storms are embedded within a moist and strongly unstable
airmass, with 2.2 inch PW and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE supporting strong
updrafts and efficient, heavy rain rates. Low-level confluence
was also supporting the ongoing convection, and with low-level
trajectories oriented inland from the Gulf Stream, recent
convection has developed just inland from the Gulf Stream with
local rates of 0.5-2 inch/hr noted near Charleston, Georgetown,
and areas just east of Wilmington. While these rates may not
cause flash flooding on a widespread basis, some concern exists
for urbanized areas, where a quick inch of rainfall from efficient
cells could result in local impacts.

Models/CAMs suggest that this threat will persist for a few hours,
with potential for 2-3 inch rainfall totals through 15Z. Flash
flooding is possible given the scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8L3xfTTU9gjH5kGKbikcFUNWJt63zvAwj3ZzZXc7tB2h-WAWWxkmLbEAS0TFAw_NI42-N95wgxRUMVGErgS9tH8SYZU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34877759 34837675 34317701 33447862 32188045
32718066 33308023 34177941

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 16:00:24

AWUS01 KWNH 051555
FFGMPD
IAZ000-051952-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0947
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1154 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...central/southern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051552Z - 051952Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding remain possible
through early afternoon.

Discussion...While a lead convective complex has largely exited
the region to the southeast and weakened (now extending across
northeastern Missouri), renewed convective development has
occurred across southwestern into central Iowa over the past
couple hours. The storms are being aided by ascent associated
with a mid-level shortwave trough approaching the region from
eastern Nebraska, while SPC mesoanalyses indicate lingering steep
lapse rates (near 7 C/km) and elevated instability to support
ongoing convection. 1.9 inch PW values continue to support heavy
rainfall. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates have been noted near/east
of Des Moines, while other convection in southwestern Iowa is
moving toward south-central parts of the state that received 2-4
inches of rainfall this morning and currently have near-zero FFG
thresholds. Flash flooding remains possible on at least an
isolated basis through 19Z/2p central given the rainfall scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7d6PkoD8ZrN1hktiKHJy6fTkm0tmjLCwodC1f9F1SaQnfoeNFr8hc7xqI36R0muAOGtTEBzpVgBJUvFEHG5K-eHhOnI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42209424 42169213 41439128 40749150 40699305
40649540 41769564

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 18:04:24

AWUS01 KWNH 051803
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-052102-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0948
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/northeast MD into central New
Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051802Z - 052102Z

Summary...Local flash flood risk exists - particularly in
urban/low-lying areas along the I-95 corridor from
Washington/Baltimore through Philadelphia and Trenton.

Discussion...A broken band of shallow convection was drifting
northward at about 10-15 knots across the discussion area and
currently extends from near western sides of Baltimore
east-northeastward to near Philadelphia and Trenton. The
convection is embedded within an abundantly moist airmass (2.2+
inch PW values), leading to efficient rain rates (subhourly 0.5-1
inch totals) within the convection. Cells were currently moving
toward urban land surfaces (especially near Philadelphia/Trenton),
which should cause at least isolated excessive runoff issues in
the next 0-2 hours or so.

As this band lifts northward, it'll likely continue intensifying
due to continued surface heating/destabilization in the ambient
environment. A couple of conditional factors for an increase in
flash flood potential exists, including 1) local backbuilding and
2) any local mesocyclogenesis that may evolve as convection
interacts with a subtle remnant boundary/warm frontal feature in
the region. Either of these factors could prolong rainfall and
bump rates to 2 inches/hr. Should this conditional risk
materialize, the combination of rainfall and urban/low-lying areas
would result in an even higher risk of flash flood impacts.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_CWxtgWzFNv8WfQITykmBz4k2Pun4MhX7In6tImNA4LIjLk5-RCNXJC_YgDmfPNcRAWZdZcfnwMb1n3BriQzaRK3r-E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40677521 40437429 40177408 39757460 39297614
38987714 39527758 40147700

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 19:43:14

AWUS01 KWNH 051943
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-060100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0949
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of the upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051939Z - 060100Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms will maintain a threat for
flash flooding into the evening across portions of the Upper OH
Valley over the next 3-6 hours. High rain rates on the sub-hourly
scale will likely result in peak rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches
(locally higher) through about 00Z.

Discussion...1920Z radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms
aligned in a SW to NE axis on the warm side of a diffuse
quasi-stationary front extending from central KY into a low over
southeastern OH, and northward along an inverted trough axis into
far western NY. The front was aligned with a slow moving mid to
upper-level shear axis on water vapor imagery with modest
divergence aloft within the right-entrance region of a 50-60 kt
upper level jet max extending northeastward from eastern OH. A
gradient existed in precipitable water values with 1.5 to 2.0
inches seen on blended TPW imagery and RAP analyses along and just
to the warm side of the front, falling back to about 0.75 inches
over northwestern OH.

low level flow was weak but aligned with the front and deeper
layer mean steering flow from the SW which is a favorable setup
for training. However, the lack of organization of cells due to
the weak shear has resulted in limited residence time for most
cells and outflow dominance. Still, the high moisture environment
has resulted in MRMS-derived rainfall of 0.5 to 1.25 inches in 15
minutes and hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, locally in excess of
2 inches, from northern KY into southern and eastern OH. With slow
movement of synoptic scale forcing over the next 6 hours, cells
will likely continue to take advantage of the 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE in place near and east of the front from KY into OH,
eventually reaching portions of western PA/WV into central WV
which tend to be more hydrologically sensitive to high rain rates.
High short term rates are expected to result in storm total
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches on a localized basis which may result
in a few areas of flash flooding through 01Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6dHgVXnvXh63Uw4o8wPNh3eLOHXMrE4t4USPvRrBe1KIbM7OzfaCzQcfxw7iOhEAPrYMWAiayCnTGLQBhLwa8w3bhMg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41678032 41487960 40137931 38528035 37588174
37508317 37828439 38438459 39178371 40148206
41108123

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 21:37:56

AWUS01 KWNH 052137
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-060200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0950
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...eastern PA into central/northern NY and the NYC
metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052131Z - 060200Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will remain for another
2-4 hours across portions of eastern PA into central/northern NY
and the NYC metro. High sub-hourly rainfall rates will support the
potential for 1 to 2+ inches through 02Z.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 2115Z continued to show scattered showers/thunderstorms extending from portions of southeastern PA
into north-central NJ, although the intensity of rainfall has
lowered compared to earlier this afternoon. Visible satellite
imagery showed a number of low level vorticity maxima embedded
within a broader axis of low level convergence that extended from
the east-central MD/PA border into central NJ, each associated
with locally heavier regions of rainfall. MLCAPE has been limited
to ~500 to 1000 J/kg along this convergence axis, but instability
has also been advecting northward in association with a weak warm
front, with PWs locally in excess of 2 inches.

While the threat for additional flash flooding appears isolated
through the evening, as the diffuse warm front continues to lift
north, weak instability (<1000 J/kg) is forecast by the RAP to
expand into northeastern PA, northern NJ and the NYC metro. Based
on earlier rainfall rates across PA into NJ, the potential will
exist for 15-minute rainfall totals of 0.5 to 1.0 inches and storm
totals of 1 to 2+ inches. Should these higher rates materialize,
heavy rainfall should remain isolated across eastern PA into
northern NJ and southern NY, but overlap with urban or otherwise
sensitive locations could result in flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-n3feBbqWHx8PkPOdSRgqa7EdKtYeyDS7mOEGfbeV_XKOdeXf933WPm_VZsgsbab3xDRbvOqFiMDQbzHYwVjGiYQgyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41577437 41257376 40727369 40147470 39647646
39937719 40557695 41067605 41517526

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 22:50:20

AWUS01 KWNH 052249
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-060445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0951
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...far southwestern NM into central/southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052247Z - 060445Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to expand in coverage into
portions of southwestern NM into southeastern/south-central AZ
through the late evening. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are
expected across these portions of the Desert Southwest on a
localized basis (isolated 3 inches possible).

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite, lightning and radar imagery from
2230Z showed monsoon thunderstorms ongoing across the Mogollon Rim
into the higher terrain of western NM. Estimated instability via
the 22Z SPC mesoanalysis varied from southwestern NM across
central to southeastern AZ, but MLCAPE ranged from ~500 to 2000
J/kg. CIN remained south of the Mogollon Rim but that has been
eroding as evidenced by convective development across some of the
higher terrain of southeastern AZ.

The upper pattern is not much different than yesterday at this
time across the Desert Southwest with an elongated ridge centered
over the central AZ/NM border, however moisture values have
increased for some locations of AZ compared to this time
yesterday, especially closer to southwestern AZ where blended TPW
values showed a greater coverage of 1.6 to 2.0 inch PW values.
Thunderstorms are likely to continue expanding in coverage due to
rain-cooled outflow and new development along terrain features
over the next 2-4 hours. Increasing coverage, especially across
southeastern AZ, should lead to merging and clustering of cells
with westward propagation following the mean steering flow into
the low level easterlies currently in place across southern AZ.
There remains uncertainty with the convective coverage across
central to south-central AZ due to lingering CIN but storm driven
outflow may be enough to overcome the inhibition in some areas.

Despite an expected evolution toward progressive cell motions
toward the west, the environment will be supportive of 0.5 to 1.0
inches of rain in 15-30 minutes and 1-2 inches in an hour. Peak
storm totals are likely to be in the 1-2 inch range, but isolated
2 to 3 inch totals cannot be ruled out through ~05Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VTDNKnG0wyVN45xuHIaH4EjhPtFJ-O3Vy6tBkBjSB2UVb5rRAKBhiHe3J4x_jDmrco2Kxv9Heut9JqRzSb5Bqk_J5s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35311157 34911079 33960944 33230805 32540786
32030792 31140833 30941050 31151159 31751241
32871272 33721270 34551261 35041232

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 02:43:46

AWUS01 KWNH 120243
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-120742-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1016
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1042 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...in and near Middle & Eastern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120242Z - 120742Z

Summary...Cell mergers across the region could lead to hourly rain
amounts to 2.5", which could lead to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...A line of thunderstorms is moving southward through
northeast TN and far southern KY. The line is moving down an
instability gradient, with the main instability pool across
portions of Western and Middle TN, where MUCAPE is 4000-4500 J/kg.
Effective bulk shear of 30 kts is organizing the convection. Out
ahead of the line, individual/less organized thunderstorms are
forming across Middle and Eastern TN as far as far northwest GA.
While inflow at 850 hPa is modest, near 15 kts, this is 2-3 times
the magnitude of the mean 850-400 hPa wind. Precipitable water
values are ~1.8".

The expectation is for cell mergers which would bring hourly rain
amounts up to 2.5" locally, which would be problematic over the
region as this would exceed the three hour flash flood guidance
values and over some of the more sensitive terrain of the
southernmost Appalachians. Another potential problem is that cell
training along a NW-SE or NNW-SSE axis as cells backbuild to the effective/outflow boundary, could become more established at the
850 hPa wind increases 5-10 kt by the end of the MPD period which
could make the flash flooding potential higher. Hourly amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-QzelA9jnxq2iWyUvQ6HQvEKaF9fqba2hozNeUmTvbEZhyY7RrCfYXbL9eVs2Uo8nBiXHbKiGlixLE_ebozxIhrYvO0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36908648 36618467 35848342 34638332 34148462
34608591 35808692

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 03:36:18

AWUS01 KWNH 120336
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-120934-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1017
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of SD & NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120334Z - 120934Z

Summary...A convective complex is expected to grow in scale
somewhat overnight. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals
to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A small cluster of elevated convection is moving
southeast through southwestern SD at the present time, where 700
hPa temperatures are 12-15C, near the edge of more significant
mid-level capping. While there has been some hail contamination,
once the values are adjusted somewhat downward, hourly rain
amounts appear to have peaked in the 1.5-2" range as of late.
Precipitable water values are towards 2". Effective bulk shear is
60 kts. The thunderstorms are moving through an environment of
3000 J/kg of MU CAPE.

The 00z GFS Galvez-Davison Index implies that the convective
complex could grow in scale until 06z or so, and there could be
some occasional redevelopment as it moves near the edge of the
mid-level capping inversion. While the guidance has a good signal
for heavy rainfall somewhere in this region, much of the guidance
is too far north to northeast. The 18z HREF pattern appears
closest, which is within the southern edge of the 00z HREF signal.
The expectation is for the convective complex to start turning
somewhat to the left which would be more aligned with the MU CAPE
gradient and try to orient closer to the 12C 700 hPa isotherm and
remain close to the 850 hPa confluence axis as the complex moves
increasingly east-southeast. Given the ingredients available,
hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible.
Heavy rain could occur within short periods of cell training,
possible cell mergers should any convective form at the leading
edge of the complex, or due to embedded mesocyclones. This degree
of rainfall would be most problematic in urban areas and outside
of the Sand Hills of NE.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9eqrl3vOKDKPqnxm1z0HrSo6c44Cu-m5dD6vs6U0YlvirDvZNNrxtZsOyzfI0QtYWW_Eq887R-jI3v2QP9knlsyRruI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...LBF...OAX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 44590141 44229885 43209667 42179660 41909810
42210073 42980249 43620273

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 04:22:56

AWUS01 KWNH 120422
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-120951-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1018
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1222 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...in and near portions of IN & Southwest OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120421Z - 120951Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have redeveloped
across southeast IN. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" could lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are redeveloping across
portions of IN, with activity in southeast IN starting to grow in
scale as they drop 1.5"+ in an hour. Precipitable water values
are ~1.7" Effective bulk shear is ~30 kts. An area of 4000+ J/kg
of MU CAPE is moving east into west-central IN.

The guidance shows the best 850 hPa confluence shifting from north
to south across the MPD area while the instability gradient shifts
east with time across IN into western OH. The mesoscale guidance
is not sold on this area being problematic for hours, however.
The big question mark is how far east the instability field is
going to be able to progress, which depends upon upscale growth.
The faster upscale growth occurs, the less eastward progress
convection make make across the MPD area. Given the available
ingredients, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4"
are possible. This would exceed the three hourly flash flood
guidance values regionally. Because of questions concerning the
size of the heavy rain signal and its eastward
progression/redevelopment overnight, chose the flash flood
possible tag. Wherever heavy rain falls, flash flooding would be
possible over areas with partially if not completely saturated
soils. Flash flood occurrences could be widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5u0_2kG1zmvZhvJ4SIPyoM68z5ucr7Q8bjoO_rfaXhgSclmo3dAud7o-9r757AqLMuc-urYdHOzJ1Kr_AnzZAX7ueyQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41108662 40888526 39268390 38638453 39768615
40478668

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 04:52:54

AWUS01 KWNH 120452
FFGMPD
AZZ000-121048-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1019
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120448Z - 121048Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
possible overnight across portions of the Mogollon Rim and
southern AZ. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible wherever
cells can cluster/stall/merge.

Discussion...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are moving across
southeast AZ in the vicinity of an easterly wave and in
association with an outflow boundary. Precipitable water values
of ~0.8" lie across portions of the Mogollon Rim, with values of
2" across southwest AZ. The instability pattern appears tied to
the terrain and some of the deserts presently, with MU CAPE up to
3000 J/kg available a bit to the west and northwest of the cluster.

While short term trends in the convection could be downward across
southern AZ as an outflow boundary moves through a less unstable
area, there is concern early Wednesday morning that convection
could pick back up as it moves into the more unstable air of
southwest AZ. Also, thunderstorms southeast of Safford could show
a tendency to redevelop to the west-northwest within the higher
instability in and near the Mogollon Rim. Hourly rain amounts to
2" are possible wherever thunderstorms can stall, grow in
coverage, backbuilding, or merge. This would be a problem in
urban areas, burn scars, arroyos/dry washes, and box/slot canyons.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-wiThMcMG4-l1s0jJkaeZg9GgJUwHmVEBGsYUG-tRJnEFLNcLA5rvQJwp925ddzFiQ5onLI-3gAVkyxBdTe1FUNCehM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35721323 35541143 34460981 33310930 31340999
31221144 31721284 32311413 33341322 33031123
33071111 33121075 33691107 34511340

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 07:12:38

AWUS01 KWNH 120712
FFGMPD
VAZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-121311-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1020
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...IN into eastern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120711Z - 121311Z

Summary...A broadening area of thunderstorms in eastern IN is
expected to shift south-southeast with time. Hourly rain amounts
to 2.5" with additional local totals to 5" should cause at least
scattered occurrences of flash flooding.

Discussion...A broadening area of elevated convection exists
across eastern IN at the present time to the east of an outflow boundary/thermal gradient across central and eastern IL. It has
developed quicker than the mesoscale guidance has suggested and
also has extended more southward than forecast. It is within an
area of moisture gradient which extends south from Michigan and
within a region of confluent westerly flow at 850 hPa. Hourly
rain amounts per radar imagery have broached 2" at times.
Precipitable water values of ~1.8" lie west of the complex. MU
CAPE is 3000-4000 J/kg across central IN. Effective bulk shear of
~30 kts has organized the band.

The 00z HREF, other than being a little slow in its southward
advance, has done a good job depicting the evolution of this
complex thus far, so used it to define the MPD region, accounting
for the hour of slowness noted through 07z. The complex is
expected to move south-southeast with time with convection forward
propagating within an area of difluent 1000-500 hPa thickness as
instability across KY continues to march eastward until its
arrival. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local amounts of 5" are
expected locally. Flash flood guidance is low as recent rains
have partially to completely saturated soils in this area. Due to
this, chose the likely category. Flash flooding occurrences are
expected to be at least scattered in nature across the discussion
area.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_SeMf8I-vmAgJN8g6oWFKST_A16zQX5zvVwB330wT90rQg-tFS1TBAdpA9-cVBaW76I4fj9K9ZERS1AEGyVlSVibgAY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41038630 40928513 38888358 36138330 35748519
38868613 40238655

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 08:51:20

AWUS01 KWNH 120851
FFGMPD
ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-121449-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1021
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
450 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...from eastern NE into northwest IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120849Z - 121449Z

Summary...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity
across portions of IA and northwest IL into mid morning. Hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are possible, which
would be most problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...A convective complex that was over northwest SD at
00z has made the turn to a more easterly path across northeast NE
and appears to have an embedded MCV as of late. Ahead of the MCV,
showers and thunderstorms have very slowly been evolving during
the past hour or two across IA near and ahead of a frontal wave.
Precipitable water values of 1.75-2" exist near and ahead of the
cluster. Effective bulk shear of 40-60 kts exists here. MU CAPE
of 3000-4500 J/kg exists across eastern NE, IA, and northwest IL.

The mesoscale guidance has been too far north with the complex.
Conceptually, the forward propagation vectors (favoring SE
movement) and instability gradient ahead of the cluster (favoring
ENE movement) are leading to the slightly south of east movement
that has recently been observed. Believe this movement would
continue into this morning, which would lead to a solution
somewhat south of the available mesoscale guidance. Where
mesocyclones, cell training, or cell mergers occur, hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 5" would be possible. These
amounts exceed the three hourly flash flood guidance across the
area, and this degree of rainfall would be most problematic in
urban areas. Flash flood issues are expected to be isolated to
widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!84RWDPv2tJCIbDTi0UFa0-d2XUmZlhkY4hHzy2vQhi2Ai8ht0vK1GWsmwHTM5AdAmwqsGESaQIsgM1sznm_of-XqXGc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...FSD...ILX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42759806 42759446 42109049 40908933 40749182
41809770

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 13:13:50

AWUS01 KWNH 121313
FFGMPD
VAZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-121800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1022
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
910 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IN...Western OH...Eastern KY...Eastern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121310Z - 121800Z

Summary...Long lived back building MCS continues to produce
widespread heavy rainfall across eastern portions of the Ohio
Valley this morning. Additional flash flooding is likely given
highly saturated grounds and the expectation of 2-4 inches of
rainfall through the midday hours.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are continuing to depict a
back-building MCS currently centered over eastern Indiana this
morning that has been nearly stationary for the past several
hours. Although recent GOES-E infrared satellite imagery is
indicating a slight decrease in the magnitude of the overall
convection, it has been a slow change overall and the
thermodynamic parameters remain quite favorable for additional
back-building convection to develop through the remainder of the
morning and into the midday hours. The latest SPC mesoanalysis
indicates PWs close to 2 inches near the western boundary of the
complex, along with most unstable CAPE values in the 2500-3000
J/kg range just downstream.

The outflow boundary that has developed on the western edge of the
complex is serving as an excellent lifting mechanism for new
convection with 20-30 mph 850mb flow intersecting the boundary,
and this is likely to remain the case over the next few hours. The
latest CAM guidance suite is quite varied in the possible QPF
solutions, but the RRFS appears to have the most realistic
depiction with some additional 2-4 inch totals through 18Z. An
aggravating factor will be the severely compromised flash flood
guidance values across a large portion of eastern Indiana into
northern Kentucky, which has been hammered by multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall in just the past 12 hours, in some cases exceeding
5 inches. Multiple instances of flash flooding are likely.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ARADBORhB2gSZoVf2lR9e9DYqVfJ-1oAoKJgb2Gx7tWTn6vxD_G-8DtWlBxY3rr_ylvL3nZ0WmgojDGracwYxHf2hw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41128607 41128486 40538397 39528397 38718386
37818346 36938298 35928308 35588397 35738530
36468602 37438641 38338673 39538699 40378682

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 15:22:04

AWUS01 KWNH 121521
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-122100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1023
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...Southern NV...Southwestern UT...Northern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121519Z - 122100Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms developing in an anomalously
moist airmass are expected to increase in coverage through the
late morning into the early afternoon hours, with the heaviest and
slower moving storms possibly resulting in some instances of flash
flooding through 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Convection is steadily increasing across northwestern
Arizona late this morning with plenty of monsoonal moisture in
place across the region. PWs are generally on the order of 1.2 to
1.8 inches across western portions of the outlook area from the
latest SPC mesoanalysis, coupled with ample instability given
500-1000 J/kg mixed layer CAPE. This should increase into the
1000-1500 J/kg range later this afternoon, and this should fuel
more widespread convection across much of northern Arizona and
extending into southwestern Utah. There is currently a greater
concentration of storms just to the north of a 850 mb trough
across west-central portions of Arizona.

The current CAM guidance suite is indicating the potential for
patchy QPF maxima of 1-3 inches through 21Z this afternoon, with
the greatest focus likely to be over the northwestern quadrant of
Arizona. Some instances of flash flooding will be possible where
the more persistent and slow moving convection develops,
especially across burn scars, arroyos, or other vulnerable terrain
areas.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!928kSHzUwZGWD9t1C6d4fQVBXVFWR0iQ3LIvxBXbnASW369LNrNmAu-TMJUPgyi4FFnkxiBrMdzZ2g_uB3tUSGLcFqc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38431316 37561249 36701207 35861118 35001017
33911054 33401190 33381326 33801423 34921454
36011499 37411490 38281431

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 18:03:26

AWUS01 KWNH 121803
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-122300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1024
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...Central IL...Central IN...Southern OH...Eastern
KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121800Z - 122300Z

Summary...Widespread heavy rainfall is expected to continue
through the mid afternoon hours across areas that have already
been hammered by flooding rains. Major flooding is likely across
portions of east-central Indiana over the next couple of hours
with rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour at times, and
more scattered instances of flooding across southern portions of
the outlook area.

Discussion...The long-lived, back building MCS that was initially
over Indiana and Ohio has now merged with the more progressive MCS
that has tracked across Illinois. This is leading to continued
enhanced ascent with numerous intense thunderstorms that are
training over areas that have already been inundated with extreme
rainfall, in some cases approaching 8 inches since midnight
between Indianapolis and Richmond, Indiana, based on multiple
gauge measurements. This has lead to incredibly low flash flood
guidance values, generally under a quarter inch/3 hr across this
region, and any additional rainfall will only exacerbate the
serious flooding situation that is ongoing.

The heaviest rainfall rates are likely to subside after 20Z for
the hardest hit areas of central Indiana and western Ohio followed
by lighter stratiform rain behind the main convective line. The
MCS should eventually move over southern Indiana and into northern
Kentucky later this afternoon as the complex becomes more
progressive with time.

Recent CAM guidance has generally been too low in many cases with
observed rainfall thus far today. Looking ahead over the next 6
hours, the RRFS is heavier with its QPF compared to the HRRR, and
the former is the more likely outcome given ongoing trends on
radar/satellite. The RRFS suggests the potential for additional
1-3 inch rainfall across central and into southern Indiana through
00Z, and generally under 2 inches elsewhere. Flash flooding is
likely across eastern Indiana into southwestern Ohio, and is
considered possible farther south within the outlook area.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_v4IwLAVDNunF2QULz58csbBJYgNF8pl_WBr2R163-928nlDhxc0jMsSd1VmY7bw1a-x5ZNAL-014543t8djZR12vmw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41208495 40698397 38978254 37968236 37258282
37058413 37288487 38088614 38688748 39198823
39618831 39938809 40148788 40348697 41028593

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 19:47:02

AWUS01 KWNH 121946
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-130130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1025
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...Central & Southern Nevada...Eastern Central
California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121945Z - 130130Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cells near developing upper-low along steep,
rocky terrain capable of .5-1"/hr which may result in localized
flash flooding conditions

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite depicts a compact closed low over the
central west coast of California continuing to lift northeastward
into the state with typical jet entrance across N CA denoted by
transverse banded high cirrus filaments extending into the core of
the 50-70kt 250mb jet across N NV into S ID. The effective warm
conveyor to the cyclone is extending across the lower Colorado
River angling back westward across the NV Great Basin into the
sharpening TROWAL/Deformation zone generally along the southern
interface of the aforementioned jet entrance region. Due to the
central Sierra Nevada, an effective mid-level triple point
vorticity center is developing across and west of the Sierra
Nevada. CIRA LPW also notes pooled moisture through the central
Valley is ascending up and over the slope of the terrain and
eventually moisture feeding along the eastern slopes out of the
Colorado River Basin will meld and bring overall total PWats from
the .75" range toward 1 to 1.2".

Solid heating over the core of the low to mid-level moisture plume
is increasing instability from 500 toward 1000 J/kg SBCAPE in the
last few hours. Proximity to the developing vorticity center,
convection has started to develop across Mono to eastern
Alpine/Eldorado county CA. However, downstream divergence and
weak dPVA into the deformation zone across central NV is also
enhancing mountain circulation development on many of the ridges
but likely to further expand as the afternoon progresses toward
evening. Cells will likely remain terrain focused for a few
hours and with solid ascent from the destabilization will allow
for a few cycles to moisten the lower profiles for .5"/hr rates to
increase slightly with the increasing moisture from the south.
Isolated cells further south toward southern NV will have deeper
moisture and may be capable to have rates up to 1"/hr. As such,
scattered incidents of localized flash flooding will be considered
possible through the rest of the afternoon into evening hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5LYnsv59GKKVjI-33Tjoh7N6i2O3ZTMJYL1gw9AoeoWogwuvCa6GYJIzXR-kXJzg7ZIrFmrNi29S7cBQfTU78WqoGcA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LKN...REV...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40711556 39991437 38661412 37871431 37001500
36911506 36251552 36641663 36371807 37441867
38281948 39212006 39751907 40431697

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 20:32:10

AWUS01 KWNH 122031
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1026
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Arizona...Western New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122030Z - 130200Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving Monsoon convection capable of 1-1.25"/hr and
widely scattered focused totals of 1-2" may result in localized
flash flooding conditions this afternoon...

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denotes a slight pattern change over
the last day as larger scale trough/closed low approaches the
California coast, as the large scale ridge has broken down over
CO/NM and shifted eastward into the southern Plains. As such,
deep layer flow is starting to likewise transition to a
southwesterly flow. This is drawing more sub-tropical eastern
Pacific northward through the Sea of Cortez, Sonora into the area
of concern. Slow filtering of low level moisture has ascended in
elevation and is starting to reach west-central to northwest NM
over the next few hours with total PWat rising from .75" range
toward 1-1.25 by 00z on generally westerly to southwest 850-700mb
10-15kt flow; while SE AZ will increase toward 1.5". This trend
is noted in surface observations already with low 50s as far
northeast as GUP/GNT and low 60s in SE AZ.

An embedded MCV from last evening's complex in NE Sonora has
lifted toward W Graham county and this was the only area generally
with reduced insolation as higher cirrus eroded slower this
morning into afternoon. Still, broadening SBCAPEs from 1000 to
1500 J/kg are increasing from west to east and mountain
circulation have already resulted in scattered convective
initiation. Deep layer southwest to northeast flow along/ahead of
the weak dPVA from the MCV may increase overall coverage through
the eastern Mogollon Rim into the Mogollon and Black Ranges in NM,
eventually expanding further downstream as well. Given the
increased overall moisture, rates of 0.5-0.75"/hr will increased
to increased to 1-1.25". Given the transition toward the
approaching trough, the winds are still light along the eastern
periphery of the trough's influence, so cell motions will be slow
at 5-10 kts. Additionally, localized mergers or redevelopment
along colliding outflow boundaries will have greatest potential
for highest rates and eventually localized spotty totals to 2".

As typical with monsoon convection, the sub-hourly rate/totals
over rocky, steep ground conditions will have good potential for
localized instances of flash flooding. These incidents should be
scattered in nature for the rest of the afternoon into evening
hours across E Arizona and W New Mexico.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!54xg1AjODFS4JhGVBfOpYkvYsBNleCz9TwqfiRAo6LVuIaW5mrLFWb7JALKw-hZHT0Tkg4xQlegFSM3WBIihMbltv1k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36870870 36830719 36540633 36050588 35780581
35090603 33730710 32420767 31840774 31270804
31210850 31200945 31231081 31641178 32311097
33441068 34371064 35061039 35680988 36360948
36620931

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 20:54:08

AWUS01 KWNH 122053
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-130245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1027
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...Northern AZ...Western NM...Central & Southern
UT...Southern NV...Adj. California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 122100Z - 130245Z

SUMMARY...Broad area of large scale ascent to locally enhanced
monsoon convective activity today. Localized rates of 1-1.25"
with potential of some cell mergers/repeating from SW to NE for
localized 2"+ totals. Flash flooding remains possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows large scale closed low and
associated long wave trough approaching central California, which
has resulted in a downstream change in overall pattern and flow
regime. Compact shortave that was over the Southwest Deserts of
Arizona yesterday was reinforced/enhanced by latent heat release
from activity overnight into this morning, but the shift in
pattern has started to lift it north-northeast,
elongating/shearing it across NW AZ. The older outflow channel
aloft remains well defined with anticyclonic curvature indicative
of right entance broad scale ascent pattern across UT into WY. As
such, dPVA from the shortwave and divergence aloft downstream has
resulted in broad ascent with increase of convective activity
throughout the early afternoon and this trend continues based on
Visible/10.3um EIR loop across the area.

As the wave exits, low level flow is increasing across the Lower
Colorado River Valley providing increased moisture flux up and
through the MCV into S UT. PWats of 1.5-1.75" area starting to be
observed through the lower Valleys even as far as into SW UT
though, higher values are starting to incrase to over 1.25"
through the lower slopes of Utah's central Mountains. Further
insolation into the higher theta-E air moving in, will steadily
increase instability from 1500-2000+ J/kg to support stronger
updrafts. As such, cells will be capable of 1-1.5"/hr depending
on elevation and localized isallobaric inflow. Additionally, deep
layer flow is SSW to NNE and may promote a few repeating cells
with time; though south of the shortwave, stronger upslope flow
may be equal to deeper layer steering resulting in either
stationary motion or even slow southward back-building into SW AZ.
In those cases, localized enhanced totals of 2-2.5" are possible
given longer residency, but most storms will result in focused
1-2" totals. As normal with Monsoon convection, where the rain
falls relative to terrain/steep slopes and or rocky/barren grounds
will enhance risk of localized flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6EYfO-eNuEo6Fnj-ETeXy1aSsCR0hr0WL_eW5a9CdWcVxihhiQPlmKryjOdM5NpjKU7guxGj7tVoAy_yMvTy5aSyn8c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40471083 40080977 38270936 36420979 34641087
33441261 33301454 34491629 36331576 37771476
40071237

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 21:36:40

AWUS01 KWNH 122136
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-130300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1028
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
535 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...Far Southwest IND...Central
Kentucky...North-central Middle & Eastern Tennessee...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122135Z - 130300Z

SUMMARY...Pre-cursory warm frontal cells oriented favorably for
short-term training will eventually be overrun by stronger,
convective line. Streak of 2-3+" totals with quick sub-hourly
1-1.5" may pose localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis denotes outflow reinforced
stationary front crosses central KY from Clinton county to Hart to
Hancock county and separates highly unstable low 90s with upper 70
and 80F surface Tds to support 3500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE from
stabilized air northeast of the boundary. Southwesterly surface
to 925mb is highly convergent along the boundary and is currently
supporting scattered convective initiation along its length back
toward the front's intersection with quickly advancing west to
east squall line in S IND, currently crossing the Ohio River.
While there is some mid-level drying in advance of the squall
line, total PWats remain over 1.75 to 2" and given 15-20kts of
orthogonal flux convergence and strong vertical ascent should
support 2-2.5"/hr rates. Deep layer steering remains more west
than northwest, but generally is slowed so cells have some
capability for residency to lay down scattered 1-2" totals prior
to the main squall sweeping through the area.

As for the squall line, the intersection of it with the front is
likely to have some further enhancement of surface convergence and
as a result lightning density and broader reflectivity pattern was
noted east of Evansville, with slightly higher moisture AoA 2" to
2.25" instantaneous rates would be greater with this cell up to
2-3", however, forward progression on strength of outflow is
limiting time but observations remain around 1.25-1.5" in 30-45
minutes as it passes. This alone is likely to result in runoff
issues in urban locations; however, it it will be this addition of
1-1.5" as it slowly catches the warm frontal cells in advance of
it that may have laid down pre-cursory 1-2". As a result,
scattered areas of 2-3+" totals will exist even as the overall
line is expected to weaken/reduce in intensity toward late
evening. Compound this with increasingly rugged terrain and
naturally lower FFG values into the Cumberland Plateau suggests
localized flash flooding may continue to be possible into
northeast Middle TN and northwest Eastern TN.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!49xvMSFN7mh2ZDvhafPxTeBNrmepe3B4ymiXRPuI_rk7QZkIs1urikEf3Dwph44GVnuJGftLOVLVk4QsR7oRT4IclWo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38308698 38128651 38008635 37788590 37418529
36868423 36298343 35538403 35838509 36758653
37268716 37808770 38268759

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 19:50:32

AWUS01 KWNH 261950
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270147-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1127
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
Southeast U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261947Z - 270147Z

Summary...Increasing threat of flash flooding over the next
several hours as thunderstorms initiate near and along the
proximity of a stationary front over the Southeast U.S. Rainfall
rates upwards of 2-3"/hr are possible in the strongest storms.

Discussion...Current radar and satellite depictions are beginning
to hint at the next round of heavy convective potential across the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast with sights on the
northern half of Mississippi and Alabama, extending back into
Arkansas. A very warm, moist airmass presence has allowed for a
very buoyant and favorable environment capable of producing some
significant thunderstorm genesis across the region as we step
through the latter half of the afternoon into the evening. At the
surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed across central AR
through northern MS and AL as of 18z with a slow southward
progression propelled by outflows stemming from a decaying complex
moving into the region from TN. Aloft, we have two distinct
disturbances that will work in tandem to provide more widespread
convective potential along the front, as well as the surrounding
areas encompassing parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
Southeast. The first is noted with the decaying complex over the
Tennessee Valley pressing south into northern AL. Some strong
low-level convergence is analyzed via the latest RAP mesoanalysis
over the area just west of Huntsville allowing for a few stronger
cells to materialize and provide an isolated flash flood warning
over northwestern AL. The aided ascent coupled with outflows from
the complex to the north will maintain prevalence for more heavy
convective initiation over the next several hours with the
environment south of the front maintaining a significant 3000-4000
J/kg SBCAPE offering, more than capable for enhanced pulse
convection.

Further west into AR and MS, a well-defined CAPE gradient is
located from west to east over central AR into northern MS, noting
the gradient running right along the quasi-stationary front over
the area. Upstream into OK, another mid-level shortwave will
migrate east-southeast around the northeastern flank of a broad
ridge positioned over the Southern High Plains acting as a
suitable forcing mechanism for convective development this
afternoon and evening. Trends have favored a relatively slow
maturation of thunderstorm genesis for the next hour, but by
20-21z, anticipating a much larger coverage of thunderstorms to
materialize as the disturbance migrates closer to the region,
igniting storms along the CAPE gradient situated around the
stationary front. HRRR/RRFS combo have been consistent on this
signature of heavy convection developing over west-central AR with
a few strong cells also materializing over the Ozarks before
sinking southeast with the mean flow.

Rainfall rates in these cells will top between 2-3"/hr as regional
PWATs settle between 1.9-2.2" over the entire AR/MS/AL domain.
Heavy rainfall will allow for totals to enter the 2-4" range, with
a maxima of 6" plausible where cells train over the same area.
Relative storm motions will be fairly weak overall leading to the
threat for several inches of rainfall in a few hours time. Also
will be watching for potential cold pool mergers as noted via some
of the CAMs today, especially in proximity to the Mississippi
Delta where the signal has been present for multiple runs for
later this evening. This could benefit a larger areal footprint of
heavy rainfall with more thunderstorm development within the
convergent boundaries.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-jg2YFTJCcRltzGiJrar2fAqDDdufn6pvrMvjBzMK9QPB_svQjGBSE20-ITv3jyAFZF4yMypwxWSDCZixATwzDwaxY8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...MRX...PAH... SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36759245 36639122 36239085 35669049 35209004
34868923 34668867 34648802 34738730 35248625
35008558 34188570 33558632 33238717 33148784
33058877 32958987 32799096 32649250 32979424
33919461 35039449 36079435 36639333

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 01:52:52

AWUS01 KWNH 060152
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-060745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0953
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...eastern KS into MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060150Z - 060745Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training and repeating thunderstorms are
expected to focus across eastern KS into central MO by 06Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will contribute to 2 to 4 inch totals
through 08Z (locally higher rates/totals), along with possible
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...01Z surface observations showed a quasi-stationary
front extending from northern IL through northern MO into eastern
and southern KS/northern OK. Largely elevated showers and
thunderstorms were ongoing over northern portions of MO where
MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg was in place via the 00Z TOP sounding and
01Z SPC mesoanalysis. Additional thunderstorms had recently
developed about 40-50 miles east of Wichita, KS. Of particular
note was that the region has increased moisture compared to 24
hours ago with PWs of 1.6 to 2.0 inches extending along a broad
region from eastern KS into MO and IL. Aloft, flow was diffluent
across the lower Plains into the mid-MS Valley, located at the
base of a broad mid to upper level trough in place across the
north-central U.S.

Forecasts from the RAP show the low level jet increasing from the
south overnight through 06Z, represented by 25-35 kt at 850 mb
from central KS into central MO. Convergence at the nose of the
low level jet will help to focus a west-east zone of thunderstorms
beneath the diffluent flow aloft. There could be several axes of training/repeating thunderstorms that develop. The environment
will be supportive of hourly rainfall between 1-2 inches and
totals of 2 to 4 inches by 08Z (locally higher rates/totals
possible). Forecast veering of the low level jet after 06Z and
clustering of thunderstorms may shift the focus of heavier
rainfall out of KS into MO, though some uncertainty exists for
when the flash flood threat will end across KS. A mixture of above
and below average rainfall was in place across eastern KS into MO
over the past week, along with varying flash flood guidance
values. Therefore, given uncertainty in exactly where the heaviest
rainfall will setup, the threat is considered possible over likely
at this time.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-oJIY9W-QjTGnq_QakKd8lmWu9gpUJPA4GFSj_WyZ92o7k-BfTJMxbYIGXcFMxnWE6LNJUrpTtxWLk1VxLt0Go2fZAA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40289436 40259307 39709159 39069097 38459099
37789161 37449363 37369567 37749762 39229764
39959575

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 01:02:24

AWUS01 KWNH 060102
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-060600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0952
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...WV, MD Panhandle into western PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060100Z - 060600Z

SUMMARY...An isolated flash flood threat will linger across
portions of WV into the MD Panhandle and western PA for another
3-5 hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and peak additional
rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...0045Z radar imagery showed an axis of scattered
showers and thunderstorms extending from central WV into western
PA, within a zone of weak low level confluence. While mid-level
lapse rates were poor (5.5 to less than 6.0 C/km), a high low
level moisture environment was contributing to pockets of 500-1500
J/kg MLCAPE where rain has not significantly cooled surface
temperatures (per SPC mesoanalysis data from 00Z). Precipitable
water values of ~1.5 to 2.0 inches will continue to support high
sub-hourly rainfall rates of about 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15-30
minutes and 1-2 inches in an hour. Unidirectional southwest flow
remains beneath weakening right-entrance upper jet support which
may continue to aid with lift to some degree over the next few
hours. Therefore, despite sunset and cooling of the boundary
layer, some degree of instability is expected to remain for
another 3-5 hours to support additional but localized heavy rain
and flash flood potential from WV into western PA. Additional
storm total rainfall of 1-3 inches is expected through 06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6_jPxcESX9kqzGiJk8uQ2cLg_F5b0h6Ateze1ATxKmjVXeFYgIsb6KObAsBxHo76CzSVmhfKZ3SWOO1STnAsOAa6fbc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42077862 41887796 41027791 39917811 38637923
38078007 37858092 38068191 38438200 39298090
40098021 41707940 41967915

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 04:39:10

AWUS01 KWNH 060438
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-060900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0954
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 AM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060435Z - 060900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
overnight hours as a shortwave drops southwest towards Mexico.
Slow moving storms with hourly rainfall up to 1.5" could cause
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR satellite this evening shows rapidly
cooling cloud tops across far southeast AZ coincident with
deepening convection noted in the regional radar mosaic. These
storms are developing downstream of a weak shortwave impulse
evident in WV imagery rotating W/SW around the base of the monsoon
ridge, with subsequent convective development occurring along
storm mergers and outflow boundaries. The environment across
southern AZ remains extremely favorable for heavy rain, with PWs
measured by GPS and the 00Z U/A soundings around 1.5 inches
overlapped with impressive MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms
this evening have produced MRMS hourly rainfall as much as 1.5
inches, and these rates are likely to continue for a few more
hours.

Despite the slow loss of daytime heating combined with increasing
convective overturning, the high-res CAMs suggest at least a few
more hours of heavy rain likely within this activity. The
southwest motion of the shortwave will place it more favorably
atop robust thermodynamics, and within a pocket of 20-25 kts shear
to help organize thunderstorms into clusters and multicells. This
will additionally enhance the rain rate potential, which is
reflected by both HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities for
1"/hr that remain above 40% through around 08Z, with similar
evolution noted in the hourly rainfall from the UA WRF. While the
general trend should be for these cells to drift SW on mean 0-6km
winds of around 5 kts, locally slower or chaotic motion is
possible at times through mergers/collisions which could produce
as much as 2-3" of rain in isolated locations.

While intensity should begin to wane in the next few hours, this
area of southeast AZ has been wet recently as reflected by 7-day
rainfall departures that are as much as 300-400% of normal. This
makes the already vulnerable region (due to sensitive features
such as dry washes or burn scars) even more susceptible to runoff
impacts. This is reflected by lowering, but still notable, FFG
exceedance probabilities through 09Z before convection wanes more
rapidly, suggesting the flash flood potential will continue for
several more hours tonight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-znro9JmXPXRX3a5X-ztPM4mEOa9q0HaXtZ0RKnLp3YX3pbptufj2wmTVIRddJxqMS3ok743ehThsvpq5c6eN5dgJMM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32551089 32480996 32230915 31970875 31700858
31360865 31180909 31141041 31321162 31651298
32131361 32451338 32371261 32441180

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 07:48:06

AWUS01 KWNH 060747
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-061300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0955
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern Kansas through much of Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060745Z - 061300Z

Summary...Widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist and
repeat from eastern Kansas through Missouri overnight. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally
higher amounts. This may cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows a broad area
of widespread, but relatively unfocused, thunderstorms stretching
from far eastern Kansas to northeast Missouri. This convection is
forming immediately downstream of a mid-level trough axis
approaching from the Central Plains (through which a weak,
convectively enhanced shortwave has developed over eastern KS)
with additional ascent provided through the RRQ of a jet streak
arcing poleward into the Great Lakes. In the lower levels,
regional VWPs indicate the LLJ at 850mb has increased to 25-30 kts
with some local S/SW backing helping to promote increased
thermodynamic advection. This is materializing as an overlap of
PWs over 2 inches (in convection, 1.6 - 1.8 inches otherwise) with
MUCAPE above 1500 J/kg.

Hourly MRMS rainfall within ongoing activity has been as high as
1.75", but the development thus far has been scattered and
disorganized. This is likely due to modest LLJ intensity thus far,
as well as a lack of overlap between the convergent nose of this
LLJ, which is oriented more E-W, and the accompanying stationary
front which is aligned more NE-SW. However, as the shortwave
approaches from the west, the LLJ should accelerate and subtly
back to force 850mb convergence to be more aligned with the
surface boundary. As that occurs, more cohesive ascent is expected
leading to more organized convection which may becomes an MCS or
rounds of multi-cells within increased 25-35kt bulk shear. During
this time, rain rates are likely to intensify as well, which is
reflected by HREF neighborhood probabilities peaking over 40% for
2"/hr, and supported by HRRR 15-min rainfall that may reach 1"
(brief 4"/hr rain rates.)

Mean 0-6km winds will generally remain progressive at 20-25 kts
from west to east, but this should align generally parallel to the
convergent LLJ nose to result in enhanced training of echoes.
Where multiple rounds of thunderstorms occur, total rainfall of
2-4" is likely, with locally more than 5" possible (10-15%
chance.) While this setup appears favorable for organized or
repeating enhanced rain rates, 3-hr FFG is generally high (2.5-3")
and individual cells will be progressive. For this reason, the
threat remains possible rather than likely, with training driving
the greater risk overnight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-94ZxznreIM2Eb8jNXErvyYplFIbQv-vApeU-yRh_g7BHbxaXs4A9Oe3ro35Zehyo76gty3aIW4Gq38rK7ptipWfB6s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40429419 40219262 39659103 38709000 38168985
37808995 37559050 37449149 37859418 38329606
38999658 39909583

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 19:52:16

AWUS01 KWNH 061951
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-070120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0956
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central Appalachians into the
Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061950Z - 070120Z

Summary...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected across
portions of the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast through the early evening. Isolated flash flooding will
be possible from hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. Impacts will be
greatest across any urban locations or where recent heavy rainfall
has increased soil moisture.

Discussion...1930Z radar imagery showed widely scattered
thunderstorms extending from the central Appalachians into
portions of eastern PA and southern NY with an average movement
toward the northeast at 15-25 kt. Much of the Mid-Atlantic into
the Northeast contained PWs near 2 inches and 1500-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE with virtually no inhibition according to the 19Z SPC
mesoanalysis. However, other than terrain and a lee trough (which
extended from the Catskills down into VA near the Blue Ridge
Mountains), forcing for ascent was not notable to focus any
particular region over another.

Despite the weak forcing, the broad region of ample instability
should play a role in additional storm development as they move
eastward over the next several hours. While sufficient shear
exists for organized cells, most storms should be multi-cellular
or pulse in nature with outflows contributing to additional storm
evolution.

The flash flood threat is broad but appears it will remain
isolated in coverage. The greatest impacts will likely occur where
higher rainfall rates can overlap with urban or otherwise
sensitive locations...such as those that received heavy rain over
the past week. Total rainfall from these storms should be capped
at/near 3 inches, but the majority of cells will produce 1-2
inches, with some areas not getting any rainfall through 01Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Taqg9iD3MSrcExtQdVkR6fmeHssUGX7sdjDVEG9SPv_9jwpXHQDPF3chVnPLHVXrDdMxqDmUb1TYSlaOhcVik8i_tY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42677520 42647446 42457405 42327375 41647354
41187360 40357418 39427555 38507784 37057936
37068000 37508017 38557968 40787760 41687690
42337631

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 20:45:34

AWUS01 KWNH 062045
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-070230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0957
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...southern NM into far western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062043Z - 070230Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible through the
remainder of the afternoon into the early evening across portions
of southern NM into far western TX. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches in 15-30 minutes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 2020Z showed the early
stages of convective development along the Sacramento Mountains
along with a mid-level vorticity max/remnant MCV in central Otero
County. The vorticity max may be providing increased low level
convergence into a portion of the Sacramento Mountains with
area-wide PW values over 1 inch, an increase of 0.1 to 0.2 inches
compared to 24 hours ago via blended TPW imagery. Instability was
estimated to be 500-1000 J/kg via SPC mesoanalysis data and the
18Z soundings from ABQ and EPZ.

The larger scale pattern featured a mid to upper-level ridge
centered across AZ, extending eastward across NM and westward
toward southern CA into NV. The upper ridge placement/orientation
results in very weak deeper layer steering flow (average of 5 kt).
Expectations are for thunderstorms to continue along the terrain
and following the weak mean steering flow toward the south over
time. In addition to the slow movement, there could be cell
mergers and very brief training to support locally higher rates
approaching 2 inches in an hour, but the sub-hourly rain rates
should be the main driver of the flash flood threat with 0.5 to
1.0 inches expected in 15-30 minutes. A lack of shear should keep
cells fairly disorganized in nature, but proximity to a few
notable burn scars in the Sacramento Mountains is a concern for
flash flood impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-J4V7d9iy8pH8STH9sx_96yPXFwPprvWM64-FRanw-1hfGIGZN0oNV7YwHUoZXmIxI4qbWx_8cHv16QCTv42vMDk8D4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34880602 34590500 32040521 30960565 31530656
31670730 32400735 33460686

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 22:05:34

AWUS01 KWNH 062205
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0958
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
604 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...swrn MO, nrn AR into adjacent sern KS and nern
OK.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062202Z - 070400Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rain with hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches and storm totals of 2 to 4+ inches are expected through 04Z
across portions of southwestern MO into northern AR and adjacent
portions of southeastern KS and northeastern OK.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery from 2130Z showed a multi-cell
cluster of thunderstorms just to the ESE of Springfield, MO with
movement off toward the SE, but with embedded training resulting
in localized hourly rainfall amounts near 3 inches in the vicinity
of Strafford, MO (ending 2115Z). While some isolated cells existed
farther south near the MO/AR border into north-central AR, much of
the region was quiet at the moment. Surface observations revealed
a composite outflow boundary that extended from near the MO
Bootheel into north-central AR near Clinton, before curving back
toward the northwest into southwestern MO. Southwesterly low level
flow represented by 10-15 kt in the 925-850 mb layer, was
overrunning the rain-cooled outflow, helping to support activity
across southern MO into northern AR. SPC mesoanalysis data from
21Z showed PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches across the MOKSAROK 4-state
region along with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE with weak to negligible
inhibition.

Expectations are for the ongoing cluster over southern MO to
continue advancing toward the southeast with time, but with
upstream development along its southwestern flank, supported by
low level flow advecting into the region. This will allow for
training potential with hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (but
locally higher rates will remain possible). Near and beyond 00Z,
the RAP forecasts a strengthening of the low level jet from
eastern OK into southwestern MO, which may contribute to increased
convective coverage and additional small thunderstorm clusters.
Mean cluster evolution toward the south or southeast coupled with
a mean west to east motion of individual cells could support
additional training with possible areas of flash flooding through
04Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-7GHkb6L_93wd_2djvAwvvdeYAwKf-GqbKCyiu2awxKeKmqpWEkhQT-Ep_HO87SZNEo6k4Pdy5eltlKXfttuyU3xjI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37829316 37119159 36019096 35279133 34989262
35369408 35949486 36799509 37609460

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 00:32:20

AWUS01 KWNH 070032
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-070530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0959
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
831 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into southwestern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070030Z - 070530Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will exist across
southeastern AZ into southwestern NM through 05Z to 06Z. While
coverage looks to be isolated, locally high rainfall rates of 1 to
2 in/hr look likely at times.

DISCUSSION...0015Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed
lingering thunderstorms across the higher terrain of
eastern/southeastern AZ into southwestern NM, with some southward
development of cells over the past 1-2 hours, on and well ahead of
rain-cooled outflow. Cloud tops on infrared imagery have been
warming over the higher terrain but convective outflow looks to be
igniting additional development toward the south where MLCAPE is
estimated to be 500-1500 J/kg with little to no inhibition via the
00Z SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, PW values were similar to
yesterday (1.0 to 1.4 inches), near climatology for early August.

Isolated thunderstorm development on terrain features and storms
forming on the advancing outflow will provide a locally increased
chance for isolated flash flooding over the next 3-5 hours. Hourly
and sub-hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches appears to fit the
environment given 0-6 km AGL mean layer winds of less than 5 kt in
advance of any outflow. Even storms developing on outflow could
produce a quick 15-30 minutes of rain near 1 inch. Any flash flood
issues are expected to remain localized and beyond 05Z - 06Z,
forecast guidance suggests the bulk of any lingering convection
should be south of the border into Mexico, following a mean
northerly flow around the the east side of a mid-upper level ridge
centered over northwestern AZ.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5HmoC4fVn4rahN4ZYCjD_2y4A4ywPx9FX-AjO8HQD_8rsuu4nSD4n1nEEd-snb6qko3KCuvQxD5J3BrFir3UDmsH4io$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33810999 33790984 33740973 33650959 33530947
33450936 33420916 33410891 33360868 33260844
32900812 32120783 31430782 31130820 31050893
31110988 31281048 31941060 32861046 33381042
33611033 33751021 33801007

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 01:17:04

AWUS01 KWNH 130116
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-130700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1029
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
915 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...Southeast California...Southern Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130115Z - 130700Z

SUMMARY...Colliding outflow boundaries seeking out remaining
conditionally unstable but moist environment in the low valleys.
Small clusters may evolve and progress eastward for random
repeating of areas affected earlier this evening. Rates of
1-1.5"/hr and spots of additional 2" through early overnight
period may result in localized incidents of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite continues to depict enhancing
southwesterly sub-tropical flow in advance of deeper layer closed
low off west-central CA coast. Increasing flux off the warm Gulf
of California combined with outflow boundaries from initial
convection near the Salton Sea merging with southward propagating
outflow off the western Mogollon Rim into the deserts are
providing increasingly broader areas of convergence from SE San
Bernardino to La Paz and now starting across Maricopa county.
Fading visible imagery shows scattered towering Cu starting to
develop into broader updrafts and deeper convection across those
areas.

CIRA LPW notes, .75-.8" Sfc-850mb LPW and broad .5 to .7"
850-700mb cover much of the Lower Colorado into southern Arizona
supporting shifting low level profiles to support increased CAPE
across the Valley floor for these boundaries to overturn. RAP
analysis shows an axis of weakening or zero CINH from E Riverside
to S Maricopa with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to work with.
Slightly lower moisture/theta-E air at the surface further east
into NW Pima county still remains conditionally unstable with
values in the 1000 J/kg range. As such, the scattered convection
will continue to intensify and expand in coverage with rates of
1-1.5" occasionally reaching 1.75" in the strongest cores near the
Colorado River and points east. Deep layer flow shows some
veering in the next few hours as clusters/mergers will form or
propagate along outflow boundaries eastward into that remaining
unstable air across south-central AZ, perhaps with a bith
southwest to northeastward trend toward the lower Mogollon Rim
slopes giving an opportunity after 05-06z to intersect areas
already affected earlier this evening. As such, widely scattered
areas of 1.5-2" totals in 1-2 hours are possible which may result
in localized incidents of flash flooding through the early
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7PyrrcKwBmDn6275ThWPAQ8UamZKfXmJRF2cTOkaiqhJwc6tyqbd97STdHAZGUIWQWWSqUK00z_f2PJ42T7tdxRW3nU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35491499 35171397 34431299 34201139 34201036
33530989 32850990 32131040 31761139 31831242
32181350 32441404 32861440 33531482 33931553
34881582

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 05:11:54

AWUS01 KWNH 130511
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-131100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1030
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Central to Southeast SD...Northeast NE...Western
IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130511Z - 131100Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to advance
off to the east-southeast overnight and may tend to locally train
over the same area. Some areas of flash flooding will be possible
going through the early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a strong
cold-topped MCS advancing across portions of western and northern
NE, with additional broken convection noted across central and
southern SD. The activity is associated with an ejecting shortwave
trough across the northern Plains that is interacting with the
nose of a 30 to 40+ kts southwest low-level jet and the pooling of
a moist/unstable airmass poleward of a stationary front situated
farther south.

MUCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg are still in place with PWs as
high as 1.75 to 2.0 inches. Substantial shear is noted as well
across the north-central Plains and adjacent areas of the Midwest
with effective bulk shear as high as 40 to 50+ kts. This coupled
with the corridor of strong elevated instability will favor
convective sustenance through the remainder of the night along
with convection capable of producing rainfall rates as high as 2
inches/hour.

The latest 00Z HREF guidance supports rainfall amounts going
through the pre-dawn hours as high as 3 to 5 inches locally, with
probabilities of seeing the 3-hour FFG exceeded as high as 30 to
50 percent. This will include primarily areas of central to
southeast SD, northeast NE, and western IA.

Some areas of flash flooding will be possible over the next
several hours as a result. The more sensitive urban areas will be
at greatest risk for seeing potential impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4dwsB2szhWxJpkMjlqCt1q7U46Auh-FweoAthGMQFX5hxDD9Z9AaqDWjtey7pkLLXTt9oflLSLVs5mv6TDb_i7tztlw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DMX...FSD...GID...LBF...MPX...OAX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45050013 44599733 43689484 42589384 41589397
41049511 40969628 41149741 42049865 42620006
43640176 44670161

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 06:20:50

AWUS01 KWNH 130541
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-131140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1031
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
140 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern IN...Central KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130540Z - 131140Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity redeveloping across
portions of southern IN and into central KY may result in some
additional concerns for flash flooding going through early this
morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery is showing
some thunderstorm activity redeveloping across portions of the OH
Valley involving southern IN and central KY. Recent cooling cloud
top trends suggest potential for upscale growth of a northwest to
southeast oriented band of convection over the next few hours.

The activity is focusing in an elevated fashion north of a
stationary front and along an instability gradient, with MUCAPE
values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Warm air advection and
moisture/instability transport associated with a convergent 20 to
30 kt west-southwest low-level jet will favor some convective
sustenance and potential for some upscale growth over the next few
hours.

This is supported by some of the 00Z HREF guidance, although there
is some spatial spread with the details and certainly the amounts.
The latest radar and satellite trends coupled with PWs being up
around 1.75 inches suggest some localized 2 inch/hour rainfall
rates will be possible. Some alignment of the activity with the
deeper layer steering flow suggests some localized cell-training
concerns over the next few hours.

This will support some spotty rainfall amounts through early this
morning of 2 to 4 inches. The 00Z HREF does support some locally
elevated 3-hour FFG exceedance probabilities in especially central
KY near areas that saw heavy rainfall recently, but the overall
footprint for additional heavy rainfall does remain somewhat
uncertain. In general, the flash flood threat through early this
morning should tend to be fairly localized, but the convective
trends over the next few hours will be closely monitored.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6KJFi6qE-agD9a1U0PNNVKxFGs_5OXKOJ10yQyt04gLEjijbLNMWz97lHuHkaiJCV7xHav79Houm54STGlzhfdIuXUU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39428714 39388606 38898471 38248359 37568353
37188425 37318544 37918675 38268728 38878756

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 09:36:54

AWUS01 KWNH 130936
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-131535-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1032
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
535 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Eastern NE...Western and Central IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130935Z - 131535Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to advance off
to the east early this morning across the Midwest in association
with a strong MCS. Locally a few inches of rainfall will be
expected, and this will support a threat for some areas of flash
flooding, especially across the more urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a strong
cold-topped MCS continuing to advance east across the Midwest,
with the heaviest rains currently impacting eastern NE and far
western IA. The convective complex is associated with ejecting
shortwave energy across the north-central Plains that is
traversing the north side of an elevated instability gradient and
poleward of a stationary front.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are noted with PWs across the
region of locally near 2 inches. This coupled with favorable shear
of 40 to 50 kts and the nose of a strong low-level jet of 40+ kts
riding up toward the IA/NE border should continue to help maintain
this larger scale MCS going well into the morning hours as it
advances east down across western and central IA.

Rainfall rates will continue to be high and capable of reaching
1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger storms. In fact, Norfolk,
NE picked up 2.54 inches in one hour from 08Z to 09Z as the core
of the MCS moved through.

The latest 06Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR solutions support
downstream rainfall amounts this morning as high as 3 to 4+
inches. Some areas of flash flooding will be possible as a result.
The more sensitive urban areas will be at greatest risk for seeing
potential impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-2MtAtIqqxCn0xmQRoxusBdCMoEqjBarkEx7keKeOjAcBs0pVNtSBl3ZcZn6VMkk5T8VXx8Z6enhyz99n8Eg_JXvoo4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...FSD...GID...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43209552 43099401 42699235 41959133 41269123
40799196 40649306 40659491 40809638 41169732
41819771 42579744 43109665

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 13:36:16

AWUS01 KWNH 131336
FFGMPD
ILZ000-IAZ000-131830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1033
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
935 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131330Z - 131830Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong-to-severe storms racing east from
central IA may cause areas of flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar and GOES-19 satellite imagery show an
impressive MCC moving east through the heart of IA with a
progressive line of storms heading for eastern IA. Surface
observations show 1-hr rainfall totals topping 1.5" in towns just
south of Des Moines and localized totals approaching 2.0". These
storms have prompted a notable FLASH CREST maximum unit streamflow
response near Des Moines and areas along and south of I-80 in
southwest IA.

The MCC is heading into eastern IA and northern IL where MUCAPE is
500-1,000 J/kg and sfc-6km wind shear is >30 kts. The storms have
been supported by its favorable placement beneath the diffluent
right-entrance region of a strong 250mb jet streak. The MCC has
also been sustained by a SWrly 850mb jet that is currently
surpassing 30 kts just north of the Kansas City metro per RAP
mesoanalysis. This 850mb jet is intersecting the stationary front
located over northern MO and acting as a supportive trigger for
these storms. The RAP forecast shows this LLJ will steadily weaken
heading into late morning, and with less instability present over
northern IL, it is possible these storms lose some of their punch
as they move east.

Despite the potential weakening trend, this MCC is going to remain
a concern for additional redevelopment and the frontal boundary
will also remain a key player in additional storms later on today.
NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40 cm soil moisture percentiles are ranging
between the 70-90th percentiles in eastern IA and northern, which
are a little more sensitive than soils were in southwest IA this
morning. The progressive storm motions will limit the areal extent
at risk of potential flash flooding, but given 1-hr FFGs in
eastern IA and northern IL in some cases are as low as 1.5", there
is the potential for additional flash flooding given the MCC's
history of producing >1.5" rainfall amounts. Poor drainage areas
and locations along I-80, where there is a greater concentration
of suburban communities and thus more hydrophobic surfaces, are
most prone to possible flash flooding.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5eYJjXTCXbic5qhgZs5af5agFbu0H1S37EmItc1Za_5AZsJz4N0PPWLmhWY-fZp1HqMuZcJunlzfG9Sx3pD-_bf0TtI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42489015 42458977 42428935 42358895 42188864
41948851 41668835 41258844 40858864 40558906
40508957 40509012 40519057 40539079 40589118
40709150 40809169 41049196 41449217 41909212
42109191 42349156 42429116 42459073

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 18:00:48

AWUS01 KWNH 131800
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-140000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1034
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Central Rockies & Central High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131800Z - 140000Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms flaring up over the Rockies are likely to
contain excessive rainfall rates that may approach 1.5"/hr. Storms
are likely to drift north and east into the High Plains of
Colorado and Wyoming. Flash flooding is possible, particularly
along complex terrain and burn scars.

DISCUSSION...A longwave trough along the West Coast is working in
tandem with upper-level ridging in the Southeast to direct
anomalous monsoonal moisture over the Central Rockies and High
Plains. Weak 850-500mb layer troughing is in place over the
Intermountain West, fostering sufficient upper-level ascent over
the region. PWs are above 1.0" in along the UT/CO border and east
of the Front Range, while PWs are still above 0.8" in the heart of
the CO Rockies. Regardless of the exact values, PWs throughout the
highlighted region are above the 90th climatological percentile
with some instances where PWs are approaching the 99th
climatological percentile this afternoon. Visible satellite is
also showing strong surface based heating over the CO Rockies and
several storms have developed. RAP forecasts show 1,000-1,500 J/kg
of SBCAPE will be available for developing storms in an
environment within an increasingly saturated 850-500mb layer.

Storms will flare up over the Rockies and drift north and east
thanks to 10-15 kts of SWrly 850-300mb mean flow aloft. Along the
Front Range, a stationary front will also act as a trigger for
additional storms later this afternoon, in addition to outflow
boundaries that propagate outward from afternoon thunderstorms.
With PWs hovering near 1.0" and sufficient instability aloft,
hourly rainfall rates approaching 1.5"/hr will be possible. These
rates could result in flash flooding over the rugged terrain of
the Central Rockies. East of the Front Range, PWs are forecast to
reach 1.25", and hourly rates would potentially surpass 1.5"/hr in
the High Plains later this afternoon. Given these factors, flash
flooding is possible this afternoon through portions of the
Central Rockies and High Plains this afternoon and potentially
into this evening. The I-25 corridor from Denver to Cheyenne are
also at-risk for potential flash flooding this afternoon.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5xTwQ6VRBUnSejJzQ0Ahw7cYIVH7RqDJXUqlt7cG7v33uuCJnUK64i9LDtUvj169ZIoBuC-kUHhq4fvl3wV3FDnbWm0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB...RIW...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 43400604 43390561 43240521 43030486 42700438
42310413 41740394 41220407 40620413 40130400
39680394 39200388 38880396 38470415 38050428
37800441 37430458 37180480 37060507 37060557
37060626 37070686 37080732 37210774 37320803
37500835 37760867 38100905 38350924 38640969
38930984 39390979 39760970 39930954 39990925
40230895 40550872 41300838 41790811 42200788
42660768 43010722 43290675 43370628

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 18:11:52

AWUS01 KWNH 131811
FFGMPD
UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-140000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1035
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Northern & Central NV...Eastern Central
California...Northwest Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131810Z - 140000Z

SUMMARY...Mountain circulation development expected along most
ranges today given solid dynamics setup across the region.
Filtering above average moisture into the Basin Range will allow
for convective cores to reach 1"/hr locally. Spots of 1-1.5"
within rugged/steep terrain may support widely scattered but
localized instances of flash flooding this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES West/East WV mosaic shows elongated closed low
across the central Valley of California elongating with a
vorticity center reaching into Mineral County NV that will
continue to slide northeast along the axis of the elongation
through the afternoon/evening. This will bring subtle but
sufficient CAA aloft to help further steep lapse rates in the
area. A downstream strengthening shortwave with nice broken
transverse banded convective elements along the northern
hemisphere of the circulation due to solid upper-level jet
divergence has also been within a persistent cool conveyor and
western branch of the TROWAL allowing for pooling deep layer
moisture, while a dry slot is forming over central NV.
Sub-tropical jet axis is also providing left exit divergence
across much of the state of NV but even modest divergence is
analzed back to the closed low. All this paints a picture for
solid dynamic support today across the region.

CIRA LPW also notes the pooled moisture in the low levels across
southern and east-central NV into UT bringing total PWats over
1-1.25" along/downstream; while .75-1" across the higher
elevations of the Basin/Range and pooling to a maxim near Reno
along the western slopes of the central Sierra Nevada. Building
SBCAPEs to 1000 J/kg over the Central & Southern Sierra and
1500-2500 J/kg at the nose of the dry slot, should help to have
scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop over the next few
hours. Clustering will be greater along the 700-500mb deformation
zone from Douglas to S Elko county though stronger cells will
likely be further south across Nye to White Pine county. Slow
cell motions are likely expected, especially initially due to
terrain upslope, but given orientation of the deformation zone and
the WSW to ENE cell motions, some repeating could be possible to
allow for localized greater accumulations toward late evening.
Rates of 1"/hr with some short-term higher bursts will result in
scattered to numerous but highly focused 1-1.5" totals throughout
the afternoon into evening.

Given most of the Basin Range has limited soils with
rocky/hard-pan surfaces, the intense short-term rates will likely
result in higher run-off and result in focused/localized instances
of flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7jzOoMul2j2bNClYC7A8gET9WjsJeZCW9xTz0T3UtKFEHm_6ioQThJUHjXU4wGXixuazMsJwPvl24wUAp2qYvot3xqI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LKN...REV...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41951379 41441294 39951236 39121292 38431423
37871535 37131666 36471747 36201826 36411878
38011939 38771979 39602029 40152039 40632005
41311846 41731698 41931542

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 18:29:26

AWUS01 KWNH 131829
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-140030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1036
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...East Central Arizona & Western New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131830Z - 140030Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms capable of producing up to 2"/hr
rainfall rates will likely cause areas of flash flooding,
especially in dry washes and areas with overly saturated soils.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a growing field of agitated
cumulus clouds from the Mogollon Rim on east into western NM and
southeast AZ. RAP mesoanalysis shows most of the highlighted
region will have >1.2" PWs to work with, which is around the 90th climatological percentile for mid-August. There is also no
shortage of MLCAPE for developing storms to tap into with >1,000
J/kg south of the Mogollon Rim and into southwest NM. MLCAPE will
be in the 500-1,000 J/kg range over the higher elevations of
east-central AZ and west-central NM. 850-300mb mean layer winds
are between 5-10 kts according to RAP mesoanalysis, suggesting
developing storms are unlikely to be progressive and could produce
excessive rainfall amounts in a short period of time.

Additional storms are likely to develop as outflow boundaries
emanating from initial afternoon storms propagate in all
directions. NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-10cm soil saturation percentiles are
quite high due to the multiple rounds of storms the region has
dealt with for several days, topping the 90th percentile in some
cases. Soils in the highlighted region will struggle to handle
much more than 1"/hr rates, and given the available instability
and moisture, hourly rates in southeast AZ in particular could
approach 2"/hr in some cases. Along with dry washes and typical
poor drainage areas, there are likely to be instances of flash
flooding once again this afternoon and evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_6HZv74O8YmCles7jhuGD94DScimYGk3NRCY_qxcfAY8fWzvzUdMDFDYanereQMD4XitKWYOcIl_6nIFkEpIjFlc-Lw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36191131 36131047 36040934 35900817 35640719
35190676 34680663 34070650 33480645 32840645
32170654 31980657 31620704 31280800 31200850
31080919 31030979 31011021 31141064 31501094
32151119 32991117 33601131 33991151 34231187
34421248 34771279 35451290 35881273 36131218

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 18:41:30

AWUS01 KWNH 131841
FFGMPD
COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-140030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1037
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern & Eastern Idaho...Northern
Utah...Western Wyoming...Southwest Montana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131840Z - 140030Z

SUMMARY...Strong developing dynamic environment with increasing
deep layer moisture will support scattered thunderstorms capable
of localized 1-1.25"/hr rates with focused 1-1.75" totals.
Possible incidents of localized flash flooding are possible,
especially in rocky steep slopes or near recent burn scars.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows an elongating mid to
upper-level trough extending from the older closed low in central
California through northern Nevada to near the UT/ID/WY corner.
Right entrance to broad 70kt jet core across much of central MT
combined with approaching nose of sub-tropical jet streak across S
NV is providing dual jet ascent pattern to strengthen a
shortwave/vorticity center over northeast NV. The combination of
dPVA and dual jet ascent/outflow pattern will help overcome
limited insolation, surface heating due to the low-level clouds
from said ascent pattern. Deep layer moisture per CIRA LPW, is
above average especially in the 700-500mb layer in the 95th to
99th percentile; pooled along the deformation zone coincident with
the 500mb trough axis in NE NV to NW WY. Low level moisture has
streamed northward over the last few days in the low levels as
well resulting in increased total PWat values of 1-1.25" across SE
ID into N UT (and even increasing above .75" in the high
elevations of NW and W WY).

MUCAPE will steadily increase with some mid-level steepening of
lapse rates with CAA aloft and proximity to approaching dry slot
over far W UT later this afternoon. Embedded narrow convective
cores have already developed in the enhancing moisture and dynamic
ascent across SE ID, but convergence will increase across the
northern edges of the strengthening shortwave to increase coverage
over SW to south-central ID as well. Breaks in clouds along the
northern periphery of the cloud bank may allow for subtle but
sufficient increase in SBCAPEs across the Sawtooth to Southern
Beaverhead Mtns in SW MT toward late afternoon. Cells will be
slow initially to move from the upslope of the terrain but a broad
southwest to northeast trend may allow for some areas of repeating
and with rates up to 1" in ID to NW WY, localized spots of
1.5-1.75" are possible through 00z. Further south, slightly
greater instability over N UT, but faster west to east motions may
result in similar spotty totals, but in a shorter term. Given
naturally low FFG across most of the area with steep/rocky
slopes...scattered incidents of flash flooding are possible,
especially near burn scars, but should be localized or focused in
areal coverage.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7BsBTUg6KJFuNmMgERxIG5JkkWzQIWCo5TXpTdsjnlKimCX0WDE91EzlSZzvxdHhmLTPKXCYOa6rzilmnYYEkWadpCE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...BYZ...GJT...MSO...PIH...RIW...SLC...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45631059 45480985 45150894 44590807 43800768
42680761 41300846 40440916 39860976 39451061
39631141 40421209 40851242 41571307 41931366
42021401 42091560 42471617 43581597 44421487
45141342 45541194

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 19:18:22

AWUS01 KWNH 131918
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1038
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...East Central Illinois...Central Indiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131915Z - 140000Z

SUMMARY...Small quick moving cluster maintaining vigor with solid
moisture flux convergence converting to 1.5-2" in 30-60 minutes as
it passes. Complex will start to reach compromised upper soil
profiles soon, potentially resulting in quick run-off and
localized flash flooding conditions

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um loop shows small MCC quickly moving
across central IL toward west-central IND with overshooting tops
reaching -70 to -75C. This was a slight uptick within the last
hour and rainfall efficiency increased with it as noted in
back-yard rainfall observations increasing from 1.25-1.35 to
1.5-2" after it passed Bloomington/Normal into eastern IL. The
cluster remains along, just north of the stationary front that
extends across southern IND into NW Kentucky near Louisville and
remains along the tight instability gradient with MLCAPEs hovering
around 2500-3000 J/kg downstream in central and southern IND.
Deep layer flow suggests a southeastward quick progression and
surface to 925mb winds are backed a bit along/north of the front
with lowered temperatures, so there are hints of ingestion of more
stable air may help to deflect the cluster further south-southeast
along the better unstable air. Visible imagery and RADAR denotes
a few mid-level cu/Tcu in this area but with weaker 925-850mb
winds veered to more westward at 10-15kts, convergence is being
driven on forward propagation than further inflow, suggesting
longer duration remains uncertain.

What is not uncertain is the cluster is moving quickly into areas
of recent saturation and flooding into the Southeast quarter of
IND into Northern KY/SW Ohio. NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm saturation
ratios are already rebounding with the 70-80% saturation reducing
toward 65-70% and MRMS Flash has completely removed any recent
surface flows beside the higher larger stem rivers. Still, with
ample moisture of 2-2.25" through depth/surface Tds in the
mid-70s; even forward propagation convergence should support
1.5-2" sub-hourly totals and given limited capacity downstream
(and urban centers of Indianapolis, Bloomington, or Cincinnati),
localized flash flooding will remain possible until the cluster
weakens, as suggested by the HRRR and ARW, or low level flow veers
and strengthens after 00z from the southwest.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8VvtzQfet_gdZ0peZb86UakrMObZhnTIe2VZwJ7A-XrjOCJ_ZAwBdmEMiPe9qtGEdvLeC8FjgW12lxd6-f58hToHqSk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40398748 40378698 40218584 39518431 38788415
38238476 38458595 39088754 39748843 40098848
40328814

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 19:47:36

AWUS01 KWNH 131947
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-140145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1039
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern NV...Southern UT...Northwest AZ...Adj
Southeast CA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131945Z - 140145Z

SUMMARY...More widely scattered but intense cores capable of quick
1-1.5"/hr and focused spots of 2-2.5" and likely result in widely
scattered incidents of flash flooding through late evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts core of 70+kt 200mb
sub-tropical jet is oriented SW to NE across S NV into W UT
generally providing some weak synoptic subsidence across the
region. CIRA LPW continues to show the warm conveyor belt is
utilizing the Lower Colorado River Valley to feed deep layer
moisture into western and central UT before broadening out a bit
through 700mb and includes the sub-tropical 500-700mb enhanced
moisture layer along and east of the upper-level jet core. This
has resulted in 1-1.25" in all but the highest elevations of the
central UT mountains and up to 1.5-1.7" in the Lower CO as far
north as S NV.

The weak but sufficient subsidence has also enhanced some low to
mid-level capping allowing instability to build through the Valley
into south-central UT where MLCAPEs are 1500-2000 J/kg. RAP shows
cap has been eroding and new development has be breaking out
across S UT into NW AZ with greater than normal initial updraft
strength with a few isolated cells as far SW as Table Mountain and
Clark Mountain Range on the CA/NV line. This is further supported
by weak 500mb dPVA for the weak trough extending southeast from
the closed low over central CA. As such, localized inflow will
be slightly enhanced and support 1.5"/hr rates even early. Deep
layer steering should allow for SW to NE cell motions, but
strengthening low level inflow from the River Valley may also
support favorable back-building and eventual southward propagation
of outflow boundaries that could allow for localized areas of
2-2.5". Still, overall coverage should be a bit more isolated in
nature given the broad scale subsidence, but any small deviation
in the sub-tropical jet could support some localized clustering
toward 00z. As usual, rocky, impermeable surfaces are likely to
shed most of the intense rain quickly and should result in widely
scattered to scattered incidents of flash flooding, with greater density/potential further upstream in the deeper moisture feed off
the East Pacific and more isolated to widely scattered downstream
into central and southeast UT.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6wvEv0S0xwvU-Q6kA417DY97lWqnFECjG4SuvdT7ANgyYZkqbJyGmT5tqq0iebcQZL0LyEScUNr7A3H_MsRL7gnUr00$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39541007 39130935 37850925 37360995 36871121
36271212 35561312 34721379 34401483 34751598
35321677 35921725 36651707 37641562 38901325
39351182

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 23:01:46

AWUS01 KWNH 132301
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-140400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1040
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Northern & Eastern KY...Far Southwest
WV...Western VA...Far Northeast TN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 132300Z - 140400Z

SUMMARY...Downstream convection is expanding in coverage along
warm front with favorable orientation to support possible
repeating/training. Given recent saturated soils, as well as
rugged terrain, scattered 2-4" totals are likely to result in
localized flash flooding through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Main cirrus canopy of small MCS across IND continues
to fade and warm as the MCV continues to decouple with the surface
front. The MCV continues to track eastward across into
northern/central OH; while the surface front and instability
gradient remains well defined across eastern KY separating upper
80s over mid to upper 70s dewpoints from the cooler air that
remained under the cirrus canopy over central OH. However, the
MCS did produce a weak surface wave that helped to increase
cyclonic low level flow across the warm sector resulting in
slightly backed southwest surface to 925mb flow per VWP which
provided sufficient convergence along the now effective warm front
in eastern KY to destabilize with additional downstream convective
initiation even as far southeast as the WV/VA/KY border. MLCAPEs
remain over 3000 J/kg and ample 2.25"+ total PWats (mainly below
700mb) will continue to support solid rainfall production with
rates of 2-2.5"/hr possible.

VWP and RAP analysis still continue to show 850-600mb WNW to NW
steering flow generally parallel to the boundary supporting a
corridor for potential training repeating. With the weakening of
the MCS, cell motions are slowing a bit, but this also reduced the
convergence along the leading edge of the convection reducing flux
and rainfall efficiency. However, this does allow for increased
residency and the downstream scattered cells along the frontal
zone will have even weaker steering flow for higher duration. As
such, with repeating and eventual merger by the old MCS
convection, a streak or two of 2-3"+.

Compromised upper soils are saturated with 55-70% ratio per NASA
SPoRT and FFG while rising slowly, remains below 1.5"/hr and less
than 2"/3hr, even with spots of 1.5"/3hr along the NW to SE axis
in eastern KY through the south-central Appalachians of S WV/W VA
and NE TN. As such, exceedance is probable, even with narrower
updrafts reducing the width of the training corridor and so
scattered incidents of flash flooding are considered likely
through the remainder of the evening into the early overnight
period. However, conditions are expected to improve with reducing
instability from loss of daytime heating into the overnight hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4gZjrBXxbR4w2GXIUzHy3eaoM92ei3bzu7JFb2QDymBrgJmCNXzAdA9KGTW7-h7EDhavvIUaFM_Nqm1NeX0OOv5_yAs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38938435 38588308 38298240 37828165 37218146
36718165 36258230 36418346 37198450 37618487
37828497 38428531 38828507

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 13, 2026 23:30:50

AWUS01 KWNH 132330
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-140500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1041
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northeast NV...Northern UT...Far
Southwest WY...Far East-Central CA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132330Z - 140500Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered localized risk of flash flooding
continues through the early overnight hours. Repeat/Training
cells along deep layer confluence axis may result in localized
additional .75-1.25" totals.

DISCUSSION...Strong dynamic forcing continues across the Great
Basin, as closed low continues to elongate and shear northeastward
out of the central Sierra Nevada with downstream vorticity centers
dotted across N NV into SE ID along the cyclonic rotor (left exit)
of the sub-tropical jet that remains 70-80kts from the California
Bight through northeast NV/N UT. This continues the strong
divergence and dPVA pattern from the Reno/Carson City toward Elko,
however, much of area along the Sierra Nevada Range has been mixed
over and a line of scattered convection is becoming progressive
across N Pershing county to SE Churchill into NW Nye county; while
a few lingering but narrowing cells remain along the the peaks of
the Sierra Nevada as remaining moist/unstable air remains
convergent through upslope processes on the backside of the the
upper-low.

RAP 850-700 moisture flux convergence is maximized along/ahead of
the developing line with flanking line convergence across
Inyo/Esmeralda county, with some southerly inflow out of the Lower
Colorado Valley bring Total PWats toward .8-1". SBCAPEs remain
about 1000-1500 J/kg from central NV toward N UT, allowing for
progressive convective line into generally confluent steering
flow. Forward progression should limit overall totals but quick
bursts of up to .75" and repeating nature may allow for streaks of
1-1.25" totals in less than 3 hours. This remains supportive of
localized but widely scattered incidents of possible flash
flooding to occur, given naturally low FFG and intense rates on
hard-pan/rocky grounds.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9a650myKVvC8K4lgLS1S37OZ0KgPYBxYNaT_kUXDjkhSihnt-C25BMu5Yqz2m-z2yJqlOi2F1qrhnuY6HDCub7sqSsk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...RIW...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42011050 41780971 41131001 40131061 39211294
37471598 37051673 36871790 37571874 38331946
38991971 40111877 40881766 41181651 41541353

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 00:12:02

AWUS01 KWNH 140011
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-140605-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1042
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Southeast WY...Northwest KS...Far
Southwest NEB...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140010Z - 140605Z

SUMMARY...Scattered incidents of flash flooding continue in
mountains for a few more hours, while High Plains convection
congeals into a larger complex before advancing northeastward
later overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows strengthening
south-southwesterly upper-level flow continues to slowly advance
eastward through the Four Corners region with modest upper-level
ridging starting to tilt further northeastward with weakly
diffluent flow across the Colorado High Plains. As such, a few
scattered developing thunderstorms remain in the southwesterly
moisture stream from the Southwest utilizing the remaining
instability while still having easterly upslope flow from
additional low level moist air north of stationary front banked up
through the terrain. Scattered overshooting tops cooling to below
-60C extend from S WY to Fremont county, CO, utilizing the
remaining 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPEs in the region. Surface Tds in
the mid to upper 50s even through the Front Range and total Pwats
remaining around 1-1.25" and convergence along both sides of the
range will continue to support 1-1.25"/hr rain rates as they
slowly move off into the Plains.

However, the scattered thunderstorms in the High Plains,
particularly near and north of the strengthening surface low in SE
CO are further strengthening with rapid cooling and overshooting
tops from Elbert to Bent county. The strong cyclonically
convergence low level flow through main steering depth (below
500mb) is also helping to converge the clusters toward a upscale
growing complex over the next few hours. As such, merging
updrafts with deepening moisture flux environment will start to
hourly rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr. As the height-falls continue to
push eastward aloft, Southern Plains LLJ will start to back more
southerly and the surface cyclone will start to lift northeastward
along the front enhancing deep layer moisture convergence (as
deeper low level moisture is north of the boundary) bringing total
PWats into the 1.5-1.75" range. 20-25kts of low level
northeasterly flow will help to slowly propagate the complex
northeast with increasing rainfall efficiency toward 1.75-2"/hr
occasionally, reaching 2.25+/hr locally where mergers occur in the
evolving complex. As such, overall totals will be highly variable
within the complex across eastern CO into NW KS with average
1-1.5", dotted with 2-3"+ localized maxima. Given intensity of
the rates in mergers and totals of 2-3" this will be in the range
of FFG values that also range from 1.5 to over 3" depending on
proximity to ridges/river valleys and sandier soils. Overall
soils have been dry, so while most areas totals will be
beneficial, those quick bursts in mergers will more likely result
in localized exceedance and possible localized flash flooding
through the early overnight period.

A second cluster may form out of individual cells across SE WY,
there is more uncertainty given lower moisture and direct
northeasterly moist/unstable inflow, but 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPEs
and 1.5" total PWats suggest cells could maintain/survive before
drifting southeast into the deeper moisture. So have included the
area in the MPD for possible incident or two of localized flash
flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_3m8xrRv7SQ9Y93jIZtkJRHe33lhGpI7qw42ZOdFYpRDa384dVbpVfHaNVXsgKpUi5HUJZwLPWJGw5-MEKjsSajlSfc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41920480 41820423 41400263 40800129 40170053
39240071 38410189 38000255 38060349 38500425
38370536 38970560 40270582 41610583

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 02:33:10

AWUS01 KWNH 140232
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-140830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1043
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Northern IL...Central and Northern IN...Western
OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140231Z - 140830Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing
further and expanding in coverage over the next several hours.
This will foster an increasing threat for flash flooding and
especially with rather sensitive antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery is showing a
gradual uptick in convection along an elevated instability
gradient situated north of a stationary front across the Middle MS
and OH Valley. A gradual increase in warm air advection/isentropic
ascent over the front is expected over the next several hours as
an uptick in a southwest low-level jet takes place downwind of
modest shortwave energy ejecting out across portions of the
central Plains and Midwest.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg coupled with PWs of near 2
inches will work in tandem with as much as 40 to 50 kts off
effective bulk shear to promote at least some organization to the
elevated convective axis, with a general upscale growth of
activity expected down to the east-southeast with time.

This will facilitate areas of northern IL through central and
northern IN and western OH seeing the greatest potential for heavy
convective rainfall going deep into the overnight hours. The
rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 2 inches/hour with the
stronger storms, and this will be supported by at least some
uptick in moisture transport overnight via some nocturnal
enhancement to the low-level jet.

Cell-training concerns will pose a threat once again for excessive
rainfall totals, and the latest HREF consensus would support some
localized 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals by late tonight. The 18Z
HREF shows an axis of high FFG exceedance probabilities in
particular across eastern IL and central IN (40 to 70 percent)
where FFGs are already fairly low due to the recent rainfall
impacts of the last several days.

As a result, the threat for new areas of flash flooding will be
increasing with time. Locally significant/dangerous areas of flash
flooding will be possible by later tonight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5pt2YV4U8HoNl-05WhBmUCtWu-Q2b1eIFk31KsAmi2na-ZFlfisvw0vRJtSNB218XQY59pWbq-yCdnuXTQ4tKkqhJvI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42178975 41868831 41558694 41198566 40758433
40138369 39388414 39498575 39918752 40368905
40999056 41689089 42089062

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 13:21:08

AWUS01 KWNH 170135
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-170733-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
934 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois
and southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170133Z - 170733Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
forming a complex near/west of St. Louis Metro. Flash flood
potential will accompany this activity through 07Z/2p central.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have increase in coverage
across eastern Missouri recently. The storms are being forced by
a couple of influences: 1) weak mid-level troughing migrating
through zonal flow aloft across the region and 2) low-level
confluence associated with a trough/weak front migrating into the
region from the northwest. These factors were forcing
thunderstorm development amid an abundantly moist airmass (2+ inch
PW) with very strong instability over the Missouri Ozarks (3000+
J/kg MLCAPE), resulting in convective activity with heavy rainfall
potential. Appreciable steering flow exists (around 20 knots or
so), although the east-west orientation of storms near St. Louis
Metro and the propagating nature of convection farther west (near
Jefferson City/Rolla) suggests both the potential for mergers and
eventual upscale growth into a forward propagating complex. The
mergers will likely result in areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates near
St.Louis and along the I-70 corridor in the near future.
Meanwhile, FFG thresholds of around 1.5-2 inch/hr will be exceeded
at times -- also suggestive of flash flood potential.

Ultimately, the extent of the flash flood risk across the
discussion area will depend on the extent and maturation fo
convective coverage and potential for any localized
training/backbuilding to unfold. CAMs suggest that local
backbuilding is a possibility in this regime even though
forward-propagating clusters/lines may end up being the primary
convective mode. Flash flood potential will exist for several
hours tonight (through 07Z).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!60AWdktpY8unnKtDXkRMpYHXSaCpA1aepUNVLlMKmNEdNLlFZVjXOfM2EN3Vixa5bjovFOxUKuoiJe3ZjyAPaJ4vkRM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40008930 39818699 38328684 37628813 36958972
36879203 38479202 39219162 39689110

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 13:30:52

AWUS01 KWNH 170732
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-171330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...Lower OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170730Z - 171330Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with potential for multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the
Lower OH Valley going through the early morning hours. Areas of
flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
cold-topped MCS (tops to near -75 C) advancing eastward across the
Lower OH Valley, with one strong convective segment moving across
far southwest IN and into parts of northwest KY, with some renewed
convective development see back to the west across southern IL.

This activity is associated with a shortwave impulse and
associated surface low crossing the region while interacting with
a frontal zone and the pooling of moderate instability along it.
MLCAPE values are locally around 1500 J/kg with PWs of 2+ inches.
There is a west-southwest low-level jet of 30+ kts around the
southern flank of the vort energy that is overrunning this front,
and that along with focused moisture convergence is helping to
support the organized nature of the MCS.

The forward propagation of the MCS to this point has mitigated the
flash flood threat. However, radar imagery showing some new
convective development back to the west of the initial convective
line. Rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches/hour have been noted with
the strongest cores of the MCS, and this has been allowing for
some brief spotty FFG exceedance.

Since there is some additional upstream convection that will cross
areas that have seen the initial round of heavy rainfall, there
may be sufficient totals to foster some areas of mainly urban
flash flooding in the near-term.

However, the other consideration over the next few hours will also
be areas downstream across central and eastern KY where antecedent
conditions become more sensitive due to recent heavy rainfall.
This is where FFG values are lower and USGS data shows
elevated/high streamflows. If the current MCS can maintain its
character downstream across central and eastern KY through early
this morning, the threat of flash flooding will increase in
coverage and magnitude.

As such, the latest model guidance does support some heavy
rainfall (spotty 2+ inch totals) making it east across these areas
early this morning. Therefore, at least regionally there should be
a concern for localized flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9gNRKvPTZHNmxAmBGz6aa0OV0p0S3vdCGKVxAOXyVnuollec68D6woCaDM28CpAAk3v2AS23Snlelumpbj89J1tK52E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39118458 38868335 38448263 37938242 37478279
37208375 37058511 37068720 37318872 37768933
38388917 38818834 39078687

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 13:35:42

AWUS01 KWNH 161739
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-162230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
139 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania to
Potomac Highlands

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161737Z - 162230Z

SUMMARY...Organized thunderstorms over northeast Ohio will
progress east through western Pennsylvania into this evening.
Cell-training is possible with a localized flash flooding concern
rest of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730Z, an MCS over northeast Ohio is ahead of
an MCV over western Lake Erie. Sufficient instability is
downstream with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Abundant moisture is
present with 2.2" PW over eastern OH that will advect east with
the line. Deep layer westerly flow will keep the system
progressive overall, though development ahead will locally train
with a general 1-2 local 3" rainfall in the forecast into this
evening. 1hr FFG downstream is generally 1 to 1.5", so flash
flooding should be localized to areas with repeating activity.

Unlike areas farther west and south, recent HRRR and RRFS runs
have a decent handle on this convective line with potential for
another round development still ahead of the MCV later. The 15Z
RRFS is hotter than the HRRR with QPF per usual with a risk for 4"
along an axis that does not seem reasonable since the RRFS
depiction is confined too far north compared to reality from
NEXRAD. Flash flooding is considered possible and should remain
localized. This area is rather flood prone, so this area will
continue to be monitored and should a second line develop this
evening, a subsequent discussion would be needed.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!47VzgzNOLgCuChAJK6tKxA5O62HtKUe2NZ5hu7MYaG3Zm6x9_T3Zr8Ou1IdjdJrWzMlglAHuel817EdMgkjpO1LbCI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41887999 41777882 40607822 39227927 39077974
39788100 40298192 41078187 41678124

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 13:36:08

AWUS01 KWNH 170147
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-170500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
945 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Southeast VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170145Z - 170500Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms near and south of
Richmond will be advancing off to the southeast along the I-64
corridor over the next few hours. Some additional pockets of urban
flash flooding will be possible for a few more hours, including
areas around the Hampton Roads/Norfolk vicinity.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a cluster of
cold-topped convection across south-central VA that is propagating
off to the southeast toward the general I-64 corridor in between
Richmond and Norfolk.

The latest RAP analysis still shows a bubble of MLCAPE values
reaching near 2000 J/kg ahead of the small-scale MCS. This coupled
with a very moist column with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches and
relatively convergent low-level flow may allow the activity to
sustain itself for at least another 2 to 3 hours before then
gradually weakening due to loss of daytime heating and convective
overturning.

Rainfall rates with this activity will still be capable of
reaching 2 inches/hour, and since there are some cell-training
concerns seen in the current radar imagery, there may be some
additional highly localized 3+ inch rainfall amounts going through
midnight.

This may foster some additional pockets of mainly urban flash
flooding near the I-64 corridor and down toward the Hampton Roads
vicinity over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4r7NsiBW0KjX8OathikLNiz0jzRkL3UnvTA6CoAgfeAk8MleZWAdYaY20L1hbHabjXJ2ITtdjXDkp4PgpGacIjpeLZQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37667820 37647740 37487666 37067588 36557597
36587704 36857799 37287842

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 13:40:40

AWUS01 KWNH 161854
FFGMPD
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-170053-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of Colorado and New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161853Z - 170053Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage across Colorado and New Mexico today, with at least a few
instances of flash flooding expected through 00Z/6p mountain.

Discussion...Abundant sunshine and mid-level moisture has
contributed to development of a few thunderstorms along higher
terrain from central Colorado southward through south-central New
Mexico. Storms are initially focused on terrain-favored
peaks/ridgelines while also moving slowly due to weak/marginal
steering flow aloft (less than 10 knots). Low-level easterly flow
was also encouraging updrafts via upslope/orographic forcing.
PWATs vary widely across the discussion area and are generally
between 0.75-1 inch in the immediate vicinity of the storms and
points to the west, while increasing to around 1.25 inch with
eastward extent across the High Plains. As storms continue to
expand in coverage over the next few hours, slow movement will
enable spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates to develop, which should
activate excessive runoff in/near burn scar areas on at least an
isolated basis.

Over time, storms will move slowly and erratically while
eventually forming clusters/linear segments especially from
east-central CO into central/northeast NM. These clusters will
continue to pose a flash flood risk through the evening hours as
they ingest higher PW air from the east while obtaining loose
organization, prolonging heavy rainfall locally. Areas of 2 inch
rainfall totals are expected, with flash flood potential remaining
enhanced near local sensitive spots/burn scars. This risk will
exist through at least 00Z/6p mountain time this evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6epi5goEMNPylpWvsTg1I3ch-YS1Q8gvR9Q2mHmMKvH3YcFq6l4mahLLny6CBdKYk7vYBu3OKegFZWu525doy_E_tgQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...EPZ...GJT...GLD...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40770552 40580455 39900295 38820249 37840247
36930287 35790336 33930428 32100504 32150705
32520838 33820869 35540813 36700707 37780687
39630666 40440645

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 13:40:44

AWUS01 KWNH 162223
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170219-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
622 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southern/coastal Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162219Z - 170219Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists across the
discussion area for another 2-4 hours (through 02Z/9p central).

Discussion...Deep convection persists on a scattered basis across
the discussion area, with slow westward propagation around a
mid/upper high centered over AL/GA. These storms have exhibited marginal/modest organization, with areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates
evident per MRMS. The storms also appear to be supported by a
weak mid-level vort max evident in model/objective analyses near
the area. The downstream, pre-convective airmass is plenty
supportive of maintaining updrafts with heavy rainfall (2 inch PW,
2500 J/kg MLCAPE), and with slow (5-10 kt) storm motions, isolated
flash flood potential could evolve especially if rain occurs over
local sensitive/urbanized areas. This threat appears to be
primarily diurnally driven, with a weakening trend expected after
about 01-02Z (9p central) in tandem with the onset of nocturnal
low-level cooling.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-6dOO2aRkewspy-L120yzhYyf0blxSAeprutEb8QmSNjOMJidyIq3Ctpch9DcQbC_XDUOoH_MVzhfgNXuCqhrP3dlrc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31599003 31328809 30848755 30268790 29768974
29939184 31199164

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 13:40:56

AWUS01 KWNH 162221
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170219-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
619 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southern/coastal Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162219Z - 170219Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists across the
discussion area for another 2-4 hours (thorugh 02Z/9p central).

Discussion...Deep convection persists on a scattered basis across
the discussion area, with slow westward propagation around a
mid/upper high centered over AL/GA. These storms have exhibited marginal/modest organization, with areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates
evident per MRMS. The storms also appear to be supported by a
weak mid-level vort max evident in model/objective analyses near
the area. The downstream, pre-convective airmass is plenty
supportive of maintaining updrafts with heavy rainfall (2 inch PW,
2500 J/kg MLCAPE), and with slow (5-10 kt) storm motions, isolated
flash flood potential could evolve especially if rain occurs over
local sensitive/urbanized areas. This threat appears to be
primarily diurnally driven, with a weakening trend expected after
about 01-02Z (9p central) in tandem with the onset of nocturnal
low-level cooling.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!67u_mGhaUGUuKOxT3LmKE_WedZtlBOOUrr1PG1ZMooolpTbZH-REXDxUFEi2no3VlTsBwZzhhN2oBqBAj7ILAKNzKRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31599003 31328809 30848755 30268790 29768974
29939184 31199164

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 13:55:52

AWUS01 KWNH 162237
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-170236-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
636 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...northern Virginia into much of Maryland and the
District of Columbia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162236Z - 170236Z

Summary...A small cluster of thunderstorms could produce heavy
rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr as they traverse northern Virginia
and the Washington D.C. Metropolitan area through 02Z/10p eastern.

Discussion...A mature convective complex is current crossing the
central Appalachians and is approaching the discussion area from
the west -- extending from near Chambersburg, PA to near
Charlottesville, VA. Just ahead of this convective complex,
developing convection has focused near/just west of a warm front
and was located over western DC suburbs from near Sterling to
Winchester. Mean westerly steering flow aloft was enabling
east-southeasterly storm motions at around 20 knots or so, with
slightly faster storm motions noted with the approaching
convective complex. The airmass supporting storms is plenty
moist/unstable (2.2 inch PW, 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). The overall
scenario will support a continued, gradual increase in coverage
of storms across the discussion area along with areas of mergers
and rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr at times. These rates will
fall on urban/sensitive terrain, with local FFG thresholds near 1
inch/hr or so along the entire I-95 corridor and much of the
discussion area. These FFGs will be exceeded at times as storms
continue to evolve. Areas of flash flooding are possible for at
least a few hours (through 02Z/10p eastern) in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_HJ1l93EsF9P3Qys0BoNSWI3HiEWpBhwV3gY0nhKYjrsw1cVDpq3s7AfrNJyhLE2I1jNVC2FgEJXEostkQrkCI_uUP0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39707810 39577680 39057608 38087632 37967822
38477882

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 14:05:42

AWUS01 KWNH 161657
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois through Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161655Z - 162200Z

SUMMARY...Organized thunderstorms over western Illinois should
expand and intensify this afternoon as they shift east through
Indiana. Cell-training is possible with a localized flash flooding
concern rest of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An MCS that crosses northern MO this morning is now
over western IL. Ample instability is downstream with SBCAPE of
4000 J/kg. Abundant moisture is pooled ahead of this MCS as well
with PW to 2.1 to 2.2" extending east across central IN. Deep
layer westerly flow will keep the system progressive overall,
though development ahead will locally train and the bookends
should have prolonged heavy rain. Hourly rainfall estimates
currently around 1.5" should increase as activity further
develops. 1hr FFG downstream is around 1.5" over the northern half
of the discussion area while values are closer to 2" over the
southern half.

The warm start of the HRRR and RRFS have this organized activity,
but both kill it despite the unstable/moist environment, so they
are of little help. Much of the discussion area has recovered
fairly well from recent rains with main stem rivers remaining in
flood. Flash flooding is considered possible from the general 1-2"
rainfall expected with this activity through about 22Z.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9RfYNfl8341anGJgUdrHVg_nhLZYq-W5JG4Efn8tae2ocENv3A09EyJ6wRJ6PZmK6EhUNb6WDIpAd7PuObcWjJMzqdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...LSX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41028811 40628646 40278506 39628485 38828490
38808575 38578787 38358923 38489066 38939170
39609150 40189147 40629122 40879074

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 14:06:12

AWUS01 KWNH 170107
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-170705-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
906 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the High Plains and adjacent
southern/central Rockies

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170105Z - 170705Z

Summary...Flash flood potential lingers across the southern and
central Rockies, but will likely begin to focus from southeastern
Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and southwest Kansas
through 07Z/1a mountain/2a central.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to persist within a
couple of regimes: 1) along the central and southern Rockies on an
isolated basis where lingering instability is enough to continue a
risk of heavy rainfall despite widespread convective overturning
and 2) from northeastern New Mexico into southwestern Colorado,
where evolving convective clusters were interacting favorably with
a moist/unstable axis extending from there eastward into southwest Kansas/western Oklahoma. Steering flow remains weak, supporting
slow storm motions areawide amid PW values of ~1 inch in southern
New Mexico to around 1.5 inch in southeastern Colorado. Areas of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates remain with the dominant cells in this
regime, which is enough to result in local FFG exceedance and
areas of flash flood potential -- especially where heavier
rainfall interacts with burn scars and other sensitive terrain.

Through the overnight hours, flash flood potential will likely
focus from southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico
eastward to adjacent areas of the High Plains (KS/OK/TX). Here, a
well-defined moist axis and weak easterly low-level flow will help
to maintain any convective clusters that move slowly eastward.
FFG thresholds are generally in the 1-2 inch/hr range from
southeast CO eastward, and these values may be exceeded on an
isolated to scattered basis given the character of the approaching
convection. Flash flooding remains possible through at least 07Z
tonight.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8g64Rn8agd1kBos8iZEGBiqsJahRDnS84FsRB3UffMQI3FY-oTnXxEmT-PV_2GTmdyIX5z7why4xrMLqTS1ep4DzHqA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40910373 39340203 38209996 37189953 35940002
35360251 33910491 33490608 35480603 38220572
40270518

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 14:15:42

AWUS01 KWNH 162037
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-170234-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of Ohio into West Virginia, western
Virginia, and eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162034Z - 170234Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are expected through at least
02Z/10p eastern time this evening.

Discussion...An earlier complex of thunderstorms across central
West Virginia has now began to backbuild and orient parallel to
westerly steering flow aloft near Charleston, while additional
developing convection was noted upstream over western Ohio and
vicinity. The storms are embedded in zonal/westerly flow aloft,
with abundant upstream sunshine over the Ohio Valley and weak
mid-level shortwave troughs over the region aiding in scattered
convective development. The storms are in a favorable
thermodynamic environment for heavy rainfall, with 1.6-2.2 inch PW
values and 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE prevalent to support ongoing storms.
Furthermore, 20-30 kt westerly 850mb flow was maintaining the
moist/unstable airmass into the region of convective activity
while further enabling a setup for both forward-propagating and
backbuilding convection.

The overall scenario is setting up for at least two rounds of deep
convection with heavy rainfall to occur through 02Z especially
across central West Virginia. Several areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates are expected given the environment, and these rain rates
should readily exceed FFG thresholds, which are low (around 1
inch/hr or less) areawide due to prior heavy rainfall and wet
soils. With multiple training and/or backbuilding bands of storms
expected across the discussion area (especially from OH into WV),
locally significant impacts are expected through 02Z/10p and
possibly beyond.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_3Q4uex8hk3cfPk3XCLafp5_m6Mi9-iIvg08fGsq9R4WcHNesqW_w_X2ulV37YFPitH-MatBUgP1bUuLKiX3BCPB-iM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX... PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40828280 40258078 39577948 38397961 37977964
37098000 36748050 36688183 36878291 37908426
38818514 40288527 40698432

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 14:21:08

AWUS01 KWNH 170235
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-170600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1034 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KY...Central and Southern WV...Southwest
to West-Central VA...Far Northeast TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170234Z - 170600Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding will be likely over
the next few hours as heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to
advance down to the southeast.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a broken
MCS continuing to advance down to the southeast across eastern KY
through central and southern WV. The activity is associated with
the ejection of shortwave/MCV energy across the central
Appalachians.

An instability axis remains in place across areas of far southeast
KY/northeast TN and across much of southwest VA. However, the
greater instability profiles are generally over southwest VA east
of the Blue Ridge with MLCAPE values as high as 1500+ J/kg. Cloud
top temperatures have been warming a bit with the activity over
central and southern WV, but remain very cold over southeast KY
where enhanced rainfall rates of near 2 inches/hour are occurring.

It is possible that the portion of the MCS over southern WV may be
able to make it into areas of southwest VA where there could be
some convective regeneration given better instability situated
east of the Blue Ridge, but there is considerable uncertainty with
the details of the survival of the MCS downstream.

Areas upstream over southeast KY, far northeast TN, far southwest
VA and adjacent areas of central and southern WV are very
sensitive from recent rainfall. The latest radar and satellite
trends suggest at least locally an additional 2 to 3 inches of
rain may occur.

Given the wet/saturated antecedent conditions, these additional
rains are likely to foster some additional areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6Zn08jg1H5ROhDV9UYokjECmd9Q7AJuXUWRZ19vytuI2sFFy-2nSHYOKTS9_LvkO18EXfqkCassEXGwiH93VDHyVMF0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39407998 39007873 38347870 37387930 36618054
36318196 36218343 36598436 37238442 37838381
38368155

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 17:28:28

AWUS01 KWNH 171728
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-172230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...Southern Ohio into West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171726Z - 172230Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Ohio
will progress east through West Virginia rest of this afternoon.
Cell-training is possible over this sensitive area from multiple
days of repeating rainfall. Localized flash flooding can be
expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As of 17Z, scattered showers have expanded enough
over southern Ohio to warrant inclusion in a discussion. This area
is in a warm sector ahead of a cold front with about 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE and elevated moisture of 2.1" PW. Hourly rainfall estimates
over southeast OH have begun to exceed 1". 1hr FFG is low,
generally around 1" over this area and east through central WV,
from the excessive rainfall across the region over the past week.
This activity is oriented with the deep layer westerly so
prolonged rainfall is expected to continue.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs have a decent handle on this activity
with a general 1-2" local 3" through 22Z. There has been a lack of
lightning so far with this southeast OH activity. Warm rain
processes will keep efficient production and the amount of
instability does suggest further intensification through the
afternoon is likely. Activity will clear behind the cold front,
but that won't clear this discussion area until later this
evening. A subsequent discussion is possible due to ongoing
activity after 22Z.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5N9oB9fyItfQoDuJHeaj6xF7NbDrzVNF8RShKXe4CACI_W_rzMJvmak6q2NtSp-kjYrqx3OBw5cGTATXBdAFIwiUj2Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40558342 40458176 40338034 40257857 39497892
38207991 37818051 38088295 38768444 39868473
40338421

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 18:54:38

AWUS01 KWNH 171854
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-180052-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...much of New Mexico, eastern Arizona, and far west
Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171852Z - 180052Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
and will continue to do so through the afternoon. A few instances
of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Radar/satellite mosaic imagery depicts
deepening/expanding convection across much of the southern Rockies
currently. The storms are primarily tied to terrain-favored
ridgelines initially, though a few areas across west Texas are
also tied to the presence of a mid-level vorticity maximum
providing ascent aloft in that area. Storms are embedded in very
weak flow aloft along with 1 inch PW values and 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, supporting locally heavy rainfall with rates reaching
1-1.5 inch/hr at times. Unfortunately, some of this rainfall will
occur atop sensitive terrain and active burn scars that have been
facilitating excessive rainfall and flash flood impacts the past
few days. Given the aforementioned scenario and the expectation
that rainfall rates will exceed FFG (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) on at
least an isolated basis, a few instances of flash flooding are
expected through 01Z/7p mountain daylight time. Thunderstorms
along the Mogollon Rim should propagate southward toward/through
the Tucson vicinity as well this afternoon.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8jLT2SS1PRcJoTERsK0_9zReju4oE6LMNqHakYTy8V6awJn8dGdh8WrNPBs2hbfenu8j65UY4v-D1k3HFTen18ZwBx4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36840473 34160487 31800413 30630345 29660335
29480407 29870468 31020571 31610653 31780815
31310831 31461110 32201172 34021136 35990958
36790806

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 20:35:18

AWUS01 KWNH 172035
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-180133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...eastern Tennessee, southeastern Kentucky,
southwestern Virginia, far northern Georgia, far northeastern
Alabama, western North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172033Z - 180133Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are producing local 1 inch/hr
rain rates -- enough for isolated to scattered flash flood
potential through 01Z/9p eastern.

Discussion...Abundant surface heating/destabilization has led to
several areas of scattered thunderstorms across the discussion
area so far this afternoon. The storms are in a very
moisture-rich environment (2+ inch PW), with sufficient
instability (3000 J/kg MLCAPE) present for strong convection with
locally heavy rainfall. Appreciable steering flow (approx 25
knots from the west-northwest) has tempered rain rates in most
areas, although local backbuilding in southwestern Virginia and
the abundance of moisture has both prompted areas of 1-1.25
inch/hr rain rates at times beneath storms. These rates are
falling on wet grounds from prior rainfall with FFG thresholds in
the 1-1.5 inch/hr range -- suggesting isolated to scattered flash
flood potential especially given sensitive/varied terrain across
the region.

The ongoing convective and flash flood trends should continue for
a few more hours -- perhaps through 01Z/9p eastern or so. Weak
mid-level shortwave troughs just north of the discussion area were
aiding in convective development and will continue to do so
through the evening. Additionally, increasing convective coverage
should lead to a few mergers/backbuilding that will locally
enhance rainfall potential and rates at times. Models/CAMs depict
a downward trend in convective coverage after dark (00-01Z), and
the flash flood risk will likely follow that same trend.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4kAbkW2W1Uiudhjs59gpMUDD6--zpIfvowu7xNMbk2FCXjlPsy4UBaSveOrgFxPVdR2-EO2wT37DEFM5dvbOiz8K9PA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RAH...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37408225 37348076 36977998 36348013 35288213
34358470 34678602 35548676 36268578 37248421

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 17, 2026 22:53:02

AWUS01 KWNH 172252
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-180150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
651 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia, southern Ohio, and
eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172250Z - 180150Z

Summary...Some potential for flash flooding will persist for a few
more hours along the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the area.
Latest radar/satellite depicts scattered showers and thunderstorm
activity continuing to migrate southeastward across the region.
Areas of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5-2 inch PW continue along
and just ahead of a front entering the region from the northwest,
supporting continued heavy rainfall. Despite the progressive
nature of this convection, ground conditions remain sensitive to
additional rainfall, and FFG thresholds are generally in the 1
inch/hr range (locally lower). The moisture/instability combo may
result in spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates at times, though most
areas are experiencing 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rates due to 20-25 knot
storm motions. It is not out of the question that a few
additional instances of flash flooding occur over the next 2-3
hours given the sensitive/wet ground conditions. A cold front
over southern Ohio and northern Kentucky will continue to sweep
southeastward, ending the threat of heavy precipitation from
northwest to southeast through the early evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4WiNSwjHcjnaD0i6AGRiTmt8gwVZmqTXdLMkLuN8fA1TQmQsQsUu4rPHsB7soOyhas4Hicvoe7kr3xoPYWJ_4az-7dk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39678188 39498008 38937946 38547946 37808012
37558188 37488305 38698374

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 18, 2026 10:38:16

AWUS01 KWNH 181038
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-181530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
637 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Far
Northwest Missouri...Ext Northeast Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181035Z - 181530Z

SUMMARY...Short-term window for repeating elevated thunderstorms
in the wake of dying MCS/Bow echo. Rates of 1.75-2"/hr for 1-2+
hours suggest a stripe of 2.5-3.5" is possible and may result in a
spot or two of flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR denotes a decaying MCS/bow echo across
SW IA into N MO with well defined shortwave while a few bands of
elevated convection are developing WNW to ESE along the
rear-inflow jet for a loose "Bow & Arrow" appearance. Steepened
WNW to ESE isentropic boundary from older outflow and flanking
line is now ideally oriented for strong orthogonal convergence at
850mb with slowly veering LLJ in WAA regime. The LLJ is per KUEX
remains above 30-35kts and resides along the surface to 850mb
q-axis with mid to upper 60s sfc Tds noted across central KS to
south-central NEB. CIRA LPW shows core of 700-500mb moisture
aligning with slightly elevated values through the lower two
layers (sfc-850, 850-700mb) resulting in the enhanced overall
available moisture for TPW at or just above 1.75" for the core.
Mid-level cooling aloft is helping to steepen lapse rates for an
elevated upwind axis of MUCAPE along and west of the upwind edge
of the developing convective line(s), suggesting a bit more
back-building is possible over the next few hours. Given 2000+
J/kg of MUCAPE, updraft intensity to help inflow/flux convergence
should support 1.75-2"/hr rates. A secondary 800-700mb band is
also developing along the far northeast edge of the deep layer
convergence and northern edge of the instability/moisture
graident. While likely a bit less, the orientation is also
slightly favorable for repeating.

Obviously, in a 'Bow & Arrow' complex, the mean steering flow
above 700mb is parallel to the ascent plane and will help to
support repeating/training convection. Hi-Res CAMs are persistent
in earlier veering of the low-level flow and weakening expected
through the next 2-3hrs, but this is also a typical bias that
doesn't often pan out and the balance caused by the LLJ and
steeper outflow influenced isentropic surface especially as
instability remains in the upwind convergence zone. As such,
expect a stripe of enhanced repeating/training to result in
2.5-3.5" totals across central to southeast NEB through the early
morning. Recent rainfall has reduced FFG values across the area
with 1hr FFG less than 2" for most areas and less than 2.5"/3hrs.
MRMS Flash unit stream flow already suggests a solid stripe of
200-400 cfs/sqmi through Valley and S Greely heading toward NW
Merrick county. As such, localized exceedance is possible
suggesting localized flash flooding incident(s) are possible too.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4dC6BACDh9doxZ7yUTfPKTaYeGZGSTOorEnfxuUUakkcFflOiZYRSAU81Ug4tKcBkhL1hWRMuOtxboqVagrkq8U8ku4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42069773 42009624 41429506 40719433 39959454
39759504 39799597 40079725 40469845 40919913
41479905 41609811

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 18, 2026 21:18:32

AWUS01 KWNH 182118
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-190315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
516 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182115Z - 190315Z

SUMMARY...Growing organized convection across parts of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes through this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front will have the potential to produce hourly
rainfall rates up to 2.5" on an isolated basis. Repeating rounds
of storms containing these rates could produce pockets of 2-4"
rainfall totals and lead to at least isolated flash flooding
concerns.

DISCUSSION...Latest 2100Z radar and satellite observations depict
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms both along and
ahead of an approaching cold front crossing from the eastern MI
U.P. to far southern MN, with a weak wave of flow pressure
analyzed over northeast MI and the central MI U.P.. Mean layer
winds ahead of this front are out of the west and nearly parallel
to the approaching frontal boundary for some areas, which provides
potential for training/backbuilding storms for pockets prior to
the FROPA. Instability remains sufficient with SBCAPE of 2000-3000
J/kg in the region and MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg (per SPC's
mesoanalysis), with the greatest values over the inflow region of
IA and southern MN. PWs are also supportive of intense rainfall
rates with values widely above 1.5" into central WI and 1.75"
reaching into southwest WI. The primarily limiting meteorological
factor for heavy rainfall is the fast storm motions, so flash
flooding is contingent on the training/backbuilding risk.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs depict scattered coverage of 1-2" totals
through this evening, but with pockets of 2-4" amounts. This is
particularly evident in the 18Z RRFS across south-central WI.
Rainfall rates per MRMS have already reached up to 2.5"/hr across
southeast MN and going forward can be expected within the heaviest
cells. Backbuilding thunderstorms appear most likely across
southern WI as the front progresses southward and lays parallel
(east-west) to the mean flow by around 00Z. Another area to
monitor will also be located where the frontal boundary proceeds
to orient in a more east-west fashion across the Green Bay, WI
area and the northern MI L.P.. Regardless, mostly dry antecedent
conditions will keep flash flooding to a mostly isolated basis,
with urban centers naturally most at risk to impacts. FFGs vary in
this region, but are lowest (below 2" per 3-hrs) across southeast
WI and into northeast IL and may be more at risk by around 00Z
tonight.

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-b33h-NaQy_HdCe0ANU9_WpMB4WYqk7sBu26RWqxCJfIoBoK8ixkngnr4LJoOS0Ho_3XIQEcmY2vpXKJ8I637SfGrCE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DVN...GRB...GRR...LOT...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45588625 45568509 45388427 44978390 44518428
44058522 43408564 42478585 42138734 42388974
42829134 43269204 43709182 43919017 44458863
45318755

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 03:03:04

AWUS01 KWNH 190302
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1086
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northwest to Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190301Z - 190900Z

SUMMARY...An expanding axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
overnight is expected, with rainfall rates capable of reaching 2.5
inches/hour. This coupled with cell-training concerns will favor
an uptick in the threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with GLM/LightningCast data shows a rapidly developing and expanding
axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms across northeast KS and
into far northwest MO. This activity is initiating in response to
a low-amplitude shortwave impulse advancing eastward across the
central Plains.

This energy is interacting with nearby proximity of a frontal zone
draped across central KS through southern MO with an ejecting wave
of low pressure along it fostering the advance of a warm front up
toward the Lower MO Valley. The upper support with the shortwave
energy is also facilitating an uptick in a southwest low-level jet
which should get some nocturnal enhancement overnight. This will
drive a strengthening moisture and instability transport regime
over the warm front and should further support the expanding axis
of mostly elevated convection across northeast KS and into
northwest MO. This in time will begin to advance or develop
farther downstream into central MO as well.

Cell-training concerns in particular will drive the increasing
concern for areas of flash flooding as the expanding shower and
thunderstorm activity will be aligned well with the deeper layer
steering flow. The 18Z HREF/REFS consensus supports some spotty 30
to 50 percent probabilities of seeing the 3-hour FFG values across
the region exceeded, with most areas in the 10 to 30 percent
range. This will be aided by an environment conducive for rainfall
rates reaching as high as 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger storms.

Localized swaths of rainfall totals reaching 3 to 4+ inches can be
expected by later tonight, and as a result, there will be a
gradual increase in the potential for flash flooding including
impacts to some of the larger urban corridors. The Kansas City
metropolitan area will be among the areas at greatest risk over
the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7cKN7nYE_DtpJT2r0qFjRfwVJ_xMpFOZ1svCh1ado1nneJg-_ysoPTVgjQhyIQPN1bmAeRgL4hIwGBUT2DcEKmt0wVQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40099612 39999402 39719285 39129171 38529130
38069147 37869220 38449422 38869597 39109688
39719700

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 09:07:28

AWUS01 KWNH 190907
FFGMPD
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-191400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1087
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KS...Central to Southeast MO...Southwest
IL...Far Western KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190905Z - 191400Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
areas of eastern KS through central MO early this morning, with
eventually areas closer to the Lower OH Valley seeing some heavy
rainfall potential as well. Some cell-training concerns will
persist, and this will maintain a threat for flash flooding given
high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar imagery shows an axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
with some cell-training impacting areas of northeast KS down
through central MO. The activity continues to be driven largely by
the ejection of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the central
Plains which is interacting with an elevated instability gradient
along and north of a warm front lifting gradually northeastward
ahead of a surface low center over southeast KS.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted in close proximity to
the axis of convection, with PWs across the region are 1.75 to 2.0
inches. A low-level jet remains persistent over the area with
values of 40+ kts aimed toward eastern KS through central MO.

Speed convergence associated with the low-level jet coupled with
the thermodynamic environment and about 40 to 50 kts of effective
bulk shear should help sustain the convective threat through at
least the early morning hours. GOES Proxy Visible satellite
imagery shows an agitated CU/TCU field extending back a little
farther west into areas of east-central KS. Steeper mid-level
lapse rates associated with an EML are impinging on this area, and
the latest GLM/LightningCast trend data shows an uptick in
convective potential across eastern KS that suggests new
developing areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next
few hours.

Alignment of the ongoing convective activity with the deeper layer
mean flow will continue to support areas of cell-training. In
time, the larger scale convective mass should also begin to impact
downstream areas of southeast MO, southwest IL and possibly even
far western KY by mid-morning. Rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour will likely continue with the stronger storms over the
next few hours, with some additional spotty storm totals of 3 to 4
inches possible.

Expect at least some potential for additional areas of flash
flooding over the next several hours as this larger scale axis of
convection continues off generally off to the east.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_d_tmHAMqC5AC6apx5L35p4hINe2ZcifoXxd8fPavZJv35Vxy04npEpAX7yFMtRV70krXn0sScaM9VNpWsskwFMUrhQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39369548 39149307 38679079 38128911 37578816
36988835 36748921 37289128 37879374 38359591
38629724 39149713

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 15:52:50

AWUS01 KWNH 191545
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest Missouri...Ext
Southwest Iowa/Northeast Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191545Z - 192100Z

SUMMARY...Stripe of enhanced heavy rainfall with small developing
cluster/MCS due to moisture flux convergence and quick burst of up
to 2-3" totals (1-2 hours) across recently saturated soils
suggests isolated flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...Cluster of rotating/broadening thunderstorms exiting
the eastern Sand Hills of northern Nebraska are starting to expand
with some upscale growth into a smaller, progressive MCS (as noted
in SPC MCD 2038). This upscale growth is supported by weak but
highly directionally confluent low level flow along a stationary
boundary that extends northeastward from St. Joesph toward Aurora
and into a mesolow near the cluster itself near Ord. Surface to
boundary layer Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s and modest
850-500mb moisture noted in CIRA LPW layers. Strong/sharpening
upstream shortwave combined with entrance to west to east 90 jet
provids strong upper level support to further expand to a broader
updrafts in the expanding cluster.

Downstream instability may be a limiting factor due to mid-level
cloudiness especially further south and east, but some clearing
immediately southeast of the cluster is starting to support some
surface heating and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg and slowly expanding
toward 2000 J/kg toward midday. Allowing for continued strong
updrafts, perhaps with isolated downstream development for
eventual repeating/mergers as the main cluster moves through.
Both conditions will increase local residency to allow for rates
of 1.5-2"/hr (given supercell/isallobaric enhanced moisture flux
convergence) to exist up to 2 hours as the cluster grows. As
such, localized totals of 2-3" are becoming more plausible
along/northeast of the front across SE NEB and eventually into NW
MO.

Hydrologically, this area has seen recent heavy rainfall and
saturation of the upper soil profiles with NASA SPoRT 0-40cm
ratios even up to 50-55% across the Loup Valley especially but
still in the 40s downstream into far SE NEB/Missouri Valley
proper. This is 75-85% of normal at this time of year and so
lower FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hr have good potential
of locally being exceeded. As such, spots of flash flooding are
considered possible through the afternoon hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8TtBQTCOrKdoog-T-kFrLjI6sdzEZY5cQHMGAopqBgjRVCEveF_OvJahQ-Weup7OdFJUYtovmuVnffHsEPxux7UOkWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42029854 41779731 41169600 40849523 40409484
39909509 39809578 40129720 40949840 41549889
41889895

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 18:55:08

AWUS01 KWNH 191854
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-200050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1089
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191850Z - 200050Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms along a nearby frontal
boundary extending across the Midwest and Ohio Valley may contain
rainfall rates around 2"/hr at times. Totals could exceed 3"
through 8pm CDT in spots and lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding within a region containing saturated soils. Uncertainty
remains with respect to coverage of the most intense rainfall
rates and will be monitored in future discussions if the flash
flood threat appears more significant.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaic across the Midwest and
Ohio Valley depict smaller scale showers/thunderstorms developing
along a slow-moving frontal boundary across southern IA, with
scattered storms also developing within the warm sector across
central IL/IN. This is all occurring ahead of an approaching short
wave diving across IA/NE and pushing eastward. This feature will
help spark additional thunderstorms that will focus along and just
south of the aforementioned frontal boundary.

Rainfall rates are expected to reach up to around 2"/hr given
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.5-2.0" in the area. 850mb flow
is relatively weak and out of the west (5-15 kts), but will shift
throughout the late-afternoon and evening as a mid-level wave
crosses the region. This will not only provide more focus for
thunderstorms, but weaken the flow briefly and maintain a threat
for slow-moving cells and/or cell mergers. These ingredients
support maximum rainfall totals over 3" and within a region where
6-hr FFG remains mostly below 3" due to extreme rainfall over the
past week or so. 1-hr FFG is below 2" for most areas and even
below 1.5" in parts of central IL and east-central IN/west-central
OH. Should the most intense rainfall rates overlap with these
sensitive regions, flash flooding would be more likely and could
be locally significant. These details will continue to be
monitored.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9q0CR2M_YGxLIpPgBRuKdnTSZLW0pGFiHdws82tUGO2Ej6Z-NqERdR-0MmBsj7kFtEDN_EVA64EDL4_Kc7fkOEYesRw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41339045 41258798 41138562 40738393 39858395
39158655 39038930 39599182 39819468 40809469
41069292

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 21:00:02

AWUS01 KWNH 192059
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1090
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of Central/Southern AZ and Southwest NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192100Z - 200300Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across parts of east-central AZ and
west-central NM are forecast to track southwestward into the
evening hours, with additional storm development anticipated
across southeast AZ. This will produce the potential for scattered
flash flooding. Rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr are possible and
rainfall totals may exceed 2" in south-central AZ.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery depicts a corridor
of cooling cloud tops along the Mogollon Rim of
central/east-central AZ into the White Mts and adjacent
west-central NM. These storms are tracking slowly southwest around
a mid-upper high pressure system situated over northwest AZ. This
will move thunderstorms off the higher terrain and into more
susceptible terrain/populated regions of south-central and
southeast AZ. SBCAPE values per SPC's mesoanalysis are more than
sufficient for strengthening updrafts, with 2000-3000 J/kg
available (much higher than this time yesterday). PWs are also
widely above 1" and peaking above 1.5" in south-central to
southwest AZ.

Latest HRRR and RRFS guidance (RRFS wider coverage of storms and
more aligned with ongoing conditions) depict scattered 0.5-2.0"
totals through 03Z, with hourly rates up to 1.5". Isolated pockets
of over 2" rainfall totals are also highlighted and supported by
12z REFS/HREF probs around 30-60%. Given the dry washes and rugged
terrain in the region, any storms passing over this and any
urbanized locations could quickly lead to rapid runoff and flash
flooding.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5GWNL9cphV9JLkSM8X91ZKasiRWBSejEUre3XFWT9y3A-w7SXxFd1-mR1EtYLQQ_nsOfUMhXzisrh5YRXIILLCHbqe0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35131202 35081144 34451059 34191000 34190916
34520825 34300758 33730755 32680819 31690910
31251014 31181108 31371218 31931275 32891256
33851256 34581269 34921251

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 22:07:04

AWUS01 KWNH 192206
FFGMPD
OHZ000-200105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
605 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of Central OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192205Z - 200105Z

SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of thunderstorms producing maximum
2-3"/hr rainfall rates situated across central OH is expected to
continue for at least the next few hours and lead to
additional/worsening instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar across east-central IN and central OH
depicts an east-west oriented line of training thunderstorms
parallel to a nearby frontal boundary and moving along westerly
mean layer flow. MRMS highlights this axis has produced up to 4"
near Bellefontaine, OH. Given the continued development upstream
and within an axis of greater MLCAPE, these storms should continue
for at least a few additional hours until around sunset, when the
instability gradient weakens and a strengthening mid-level wave
over the Midwest interrupts the better forcing and shifts it to
the south.

As this training band of storms slides east and eventually
weakens, additional areas of flash flooding are likely given 3-hr
FFG largely below 2". Some locally significant flash flooding is
possible particularly due to central OH still recovering from
extreme rainfall amounts over the last week or so.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5gt3f-0eC6uS6ujNS0f8pzabN0T_0oX0Y-3CeTj6owVqZ9llD8FAaZ8uIpyFThNb8mZTEBVTYJWJmxm7zwPIii8dicc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40688420 40598302 40478214 40348169 40018187
40038297 40088411 40138473 40548472

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 20, 2026 00:00:20

AWUS01 KWNH 192359
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1092
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
759 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois and Indiana into far southwest
Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192355Z - 200555Z

SUMMARY...Training bands of thunderstorms containing rainfall
rates of 2-3"/hr are likely to continue into the overnight hours
across central IL and IN, which will likely lead to additional and
worsening flash flooding over the region. This is particularly the
case given the area experienced extreme rainfall amounts over the
last week and ground conditions remain prone rapid runoff and
ponding of water where intense rainfall rates occur. Locally
significant impacts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest 2330Z regional radar and surface observations
depict a cluster of slow moving storms over west-central IL just
ahead of a diving mid-level shortwave across the Midwest, while a
separate training axis of thunderstorms was located over central
IN into east-central IL just to the south of a west-east draped
stationary front. Meanwhile, PWs in the Ohio Valley and Midwest
remain around 1.7-2.0" south of this front with westerly mean
layer flow parallel to the aforementioned frontal boundary. This
creates a ripe environment for training/backbuilding
thunderstorms. Additionally, instability remains sufficient for
updraft maintenance with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg across central IL.

As the mid-level shortwave continues to push eastward this evening
and early overnight, it will also slide a bit south and tug the
better forcing along the frontal boundary a tad south as well.
While this will aid the immediate convection in central IN from
remaining locked in place for longer than a few more hours,
westerly mean layer flow should still promote additional axes of
west-east oriented thunderstorms. The cluster of storms over
west-central IL is also expected to maintain before merging with
central IN activity and increase coverage of intense rainfall.
Rain rates have reached into the 2-3"/hr range and is above local
FFG in the region that falls generally below 2" per 1-hr. These
values are particularly low given the wet antecedent ground
conditions in place after extreme rainfall over the prior week and
prompt the inability for grounds to soak in additional rainfall
before it starts to rapidly runoff/pond. This may lead to not only
numerous instances of flash flooding, but some significant impacts
as well into the overnight hours.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9PUL82oOMA1-q5R8ClMQ8x9O3lonlchC0VtySXdPO9R0aNKrZjd8boOR8oXjW3jvWmZa-ZL4AmmtulUmoSK0PL0iqMM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41279024 41078933 40728845 40488728 40378590
39988475 39438445 39108534 39288742 39748931
40309042 40969076

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 20, 2026 02:05:22

AWUS01 KWNH 200205
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200803-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1004 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western
Kentucky, far northwest Tennessee, and far southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200203Z - 200803Z

Summary...Areas of training convection are expected to materialize
and cause instances of flash flooding through 08Z/3a central.

Discussion...Robust convective development was noted just
northwest of Poplar Bluff in the past hour. The convection was
likely tied to 1) increasing low-level flow across northeastern
Arkansas and resultant convergence in the vicinity of the
developing storms, and 2) the glancing influence of a passing
mid-level shortwave trough over northern Missouri. The storms are
also supported by very steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km based
on mesoanalyses and the most recent 00Z SGF RAOB). The lapse
rates and low-level moisture was supporting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
and 1.8 inch PW, respectively, suggestive of heavy rainfall
potential. While storms may move eastward at an appreciable rate
initially (~30 knots), increasing low-level flow/convergence will
eventually support development of a complex of storms that
exhibits some elements of forward-propagation, training, and
backbuilding over time.

Some concern exists that areas of repeating/training heavy
rainfall will occur over southeastern Missouri, which as
relatively low FFG in a few areas (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) due to
rain that fell over the past 24 hours between Poplar Bluff, Cape
Girardeau, and points northwestward. FFGs are slightly higher
with eastward extent into Kentucky, although 2 inch/hr thresholds
should be exceeded especially where heavy rainfall can persist
locally. Flash flooding is expected in at least a few areas given
the scenario, with the threat spreading eastward from Missouri
(initially) through central Kentucky through 08Z/3a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8WWSXNSDMt417hTAkoK2yK6RRfti9IuCGl_GTj6yDnGie8AZqacsa0YSYCmMvfc3Ys2oaYjoESTIOC1m38JZ4Hd0Npc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38068828 37888666 37208599 36548631 36178936
36649195 37689183 37929056

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 20, 2026 02:08:58

AWUS01 KWNH 200208
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200803-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1007 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western
Kentucky, far northwest Tennessee, and far southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200203Z - 200803Z

Summary...Areas of training convection are expected to materialize
and cause instances of flash flooding through 08Z/3a central.

Discussion...Robust convective development was noted just
northwest of Poplar Bluff in the past hour. The convection was
likely tied to 1) increasing low-level flow across northeastern
Arkansas and resultant convergence in the vicinity of the
developing storms, and 2) the glancing influence of a passing
mid-level shortwave trough over northern Missouri. The storms are
also supported by very steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km based
on mesoanalyses and the most recent 00Z SGF RAOB). The lapse
rates and low-level moisture was supporting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
and 1.8 inch PW, respectively, suggestive of heavy rainfall
potential. While storms may move eastward at an appreciable rate
initially (~30 knots), increasing low-level flow/convergence will
eventually support development of a complex of storms that
exhibits some elements of forward-propagation, training, and
backbuilding over time.

Some concern exists that areas of repeating/training heavy
rainfall will occur over southeastern Missouri, which as
relatively low FFG in a few areas (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) due to
rain that fell over the past 24 hours between Poplar Bluff, Cape
Girardeau, and points northwestward. FFGs are slightly higher
with eastward extent into Kentucky, although 2 inch/hr thresholds
should be exceeded especially where heavy rainfall can persist
locally. Flash flooding is expected in at least a few areas given
the scenario, with the threat spreading eastward from Missouri
(initially) through central Kentucky through 08Z/3a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8t1tNDI1r4r0vaGziV9ckwXl9VJJ1cXD5D9K7ZfVASWRXA9eSHTKdgQ-cf0Ne_hpCxEGOFpCzSPU5o0J2SeZ-w601xk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38068828 37888666 37208599 36548631 36178936
36649195 37689183 37929056

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 20, 2026 03:24:56

AWUS01 KWNH 200324
FFGMPD
AZZ000-200722-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1094
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1123 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...central/southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200322Z - 200722Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose a flash
flood threat for at least another 2-4 hours (through 07Z).

Discussion...Convection has been persistent across the discussion
area over the past few hours -- particularly in eastern AZ where a
weak mid-level vort max and elevated instability (1000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) has supported continued updraft development. Recent radar
mosaic imagery suggests upscale growth into a slowly
westward-moving complex tending from along the Mogollon Rim near
Show Low south-southwestward to near Tuscon. The combination of
weak northeasterly flow aloft and persistent convection
(reinforcing outflow) will enable continued westward propagation
toward a gradually more moist airmass (1.4 inch PW) supporting
increasingly heavy rainfall rates. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates
are expected to migrate westward through Phoenix Metro and
surrounding areas along with southern Arizona desert areas.
Sensitive terrain and urban areas could experience instances of
flash flooding in this regime. Flash flood potential will exist
through at least 07Z/1a Mountain/midnight Pacific.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5_GXIxa-2o-hesvJtbidlcUxCLPcSM-gZwZhQ3M8m0MuVNsjy8oqk-qjIzAfPj1yfbCNG7WnflN0y1w5ISNhXFIdqRo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35671195 35421003 34050964 31660999 31501133
32311419 35271397

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 20, 2026 05:33:38

AWUS01 KWNH 200533
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-200931-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/southern Indiana, southern
Ohio, northern Kentucky, West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200531Z - 200931Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues along the Ohio Valley
and vicinity.

Discussion...While a relatively focused axis of moderate to heavy
rainfall persists from central/southern IN into southwestern Oh,
heavy rainfall is confined to a couple of areas: 1) near Dayton
and vicinity and 2) near Terra Haute. Both of these areas reside
along a low-level boundary that has been convectively augmented by
outflow from prior storms. Both areas of convection are making
slow, but steady progress eastward toward areas that have low FFG
from prior rainfall (near 1 inch/hr in southeastern OH, 1-1.5
inch/hr in southwestern OH and points westward). Light southerly
low-level flow ahead of these convective clusters was helping to
maintain areas of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch PW values ahead of
the complex, and sufficient instability exists downstream to
maintain convection to the Ohio River and OH/WV border region over
the next 3-5 hours or so. Given wet antecedent conditions, soils
capable of excessive rainfall, locally sensitive terrain, and
ongoing 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates (exceeding local FFG), flash
flood potential is apparent with this activity for the next
several hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5AECKYQ68chlGruxB6yJud7Gf7EaEHAzDKOOiFONSri_O6Mv0xEUF0F3tNo75qO9Ko-V-OSTkbqBm_3NKGEVEucYrvk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40648241 40268085 39338048 38348059 37798180
38858712 40258740 40488527

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 20, 2026 08:19:04

AWUS01 KWNH 200818
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-201417-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri, western/central Kentucky, western/Middle Tennessee, and far southern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200817Z - 201417Z

Summary...A mature convective complex remains capable of areas of
backbuilding and training. Flash flood potential continues.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a lead MCS from near
Bowling Green, KY to near Dickson and Dyersburg, TN. Additional
convection continues to backbuild near the Paducah and Cape
Girardeau, MO areas. Much of the convection continues to develop
in response to a southwesterly low-level jet over northeastern AR,
which was maintaining areas of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE on the western
sides of the convection. Low-level convergence was also maximized
an the northeastern side of this LLJ axis from southeast MO into
western TN. 1.9+ inch PW values and upstream mid-level lapse
rates near 7C/km continue to foster strong updrafts as well.
Areas of flash flooding remain possible, with the greatest
near-term threat focused across Cape Girardeau, Paducah, and
surrounding areas that are currently experiencing their second to
third round of heavy rainfall tonight. Spots of 1 inch/hr rain
rates are continuing to foster FFG exceedance in the areas.

Additional backbuilding is expected over at least the next 2-3
hours as the aforementioned AR LLJ veers and eventually weakens.
Westerly, unstable low-level flow will continue to provide a risk
of backbuilding convection especially across western/Middle TN.
Ground conditions are comparatively less sensitive in most areas
(drier antecedent conditions, 2+ inch/hr FFG thresholds),
suggesting that any flash flood risk may be tied to urban and/or
sensitive spots and may be more isolated in nature compared to
MO/KY although if backbuilding can be sustained across
western/Middle TN for multiple hours, the flash flood threat will
increase. The degree/extent of backbuilding and heavy rainfall
duration is a bit uncertain though.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6tnFcJuDM-3mmhPoiBOqp7K06VlXB-jCWmWEuHpNNt_Y8QTktsUNHxZtyHb4SGen-8j2AGmfD1bs74PO74Wv5bZb3Pg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JKL...LMK...LSX...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37908889 37778719 37218547 36458456 35328574
35068869 35308979 36529050 37719027

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 20, 2026 11:39:24

AWUS01 KWNH 201139
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-201700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1097
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Ohio...Northern West Virginia...Western Maryland...Southwest to Central Pennsylvania...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201140Z - 201700Z

SUMMARY...Solid speed, directional and upslope moist flow along a
training warm advection wing of MCV proving to be efficient rain
producer at 1-1.5"/hr. Low FFG and relatively saturated upper
soils through rough terrain support possible incidents of flash
flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and surface observations continues to
show a core of enhanced efficient rainfall just downstream of a
tight compact deep layer cyclone near ZZV moving east. VWP and
RAP analysis shows broad 15-20kt SSW flow through the Ohio Valley
quickly turning south along a well defined west to east
convergence axis downstream of the cyclone to south-central PA.
This is aligned with enhanced .66-.75" surface to 850mb LPW per
CIRA. Though moisture and flux convergence is solid, much of the
mid-level instability has been limited to about 250-500 J/kg.
However, with a fairly high elevated freezing level/WBZ level, any
shallow convection has been efficient in low warm cloud processes
allowing for 1-1.5" hourly rates near the core.

Also with upslope flow and cyclonic curvature and downstream
convergence along the effective warm front has been producing
scattered warm advective showers pre-cursory to the wave. As
such, these showers may allow for additional .5" prior to arrival
of heavier rains. Spots of 1.5-2" are probable through the
morning. The concern is the area has seen prolific rainfall over
the last few weeks and soil conditions are about 55-70% saturated
per NASA SPoRT 0-40cm LIS product which is about the 80-90th
percentile. FFG values about 1"/hr and 1.5-2"/3hrs have good
possibility to be exceeded along the potential repeating
convergence axis suggesting incidents of flash flooding are
possible through the remainder of the morning into early
afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ANFhV2_jXNh0O0TcprpAumkIVdDlx3Sw-EczTT215vYgTbk2PwBy-mxBOPOk88SRPMWe5uBFWJYMV3oUBM5_6YgWxs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41207837 40787761 40097778 39777837 39527920
39208064 39438182 40208194 41067989

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 20, 2026 15:57:28

AWUS01 KWNH 201557
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-202200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Eastern PA...Northern NJ...Northern DE...Central
MD...Northern VA...DC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201600Z - 202200Z

SUMMARY...Approaching, sharpening deep-layer cyclone to interact
with increasing Atlantic moisture expanding thunderstorm activity
capable of very intense thunderstorms capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates
and localized 2-4" totals, especially after 20z. Some repeating
near the front increases potential for higher totals. Proximity
to urban coridor suggests scattered incidents of flash flooding
will be likely.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad long-wave trough across
the Great Lakes tightening into a confluent zone on the northwest
side of sub-tropical ridge over the Eastern Atlantic. This
provides a solid dynamic environment with strengthening
upper-level jet well denote by broaden cirrus canopy over N PA/NY
for a 100+kt 3H jet. The right entrance ascent pattern will remain
strong and a short-wave with a mature MCV is moving quickly
through E OH into SW PA providing strong dPVA to further enhance
divergence and outflow aloft. The return flow around the ridge
is providing the strong thermodynamics off the western Atlantic.
CIRA LPW surface to 850mb shows strong surge of .8 to 1" LPW
across E VA into MD where is is intersecting with a synoptic front
and increasing FGEN across SE PA. Mid-level moisture from the
Upper Ohio Valley is starting to stream through the terrain and
strengthening 850-700mb southwesterly flow to over 35kts per VWP
network, bringing over .5"+ in that layer to bring overall TPWs
from 1.8", increasing toward/over 2" after 18z.

Currently, the MCV is moving quickly along the surface front with
that FGEN forced WAA along and downstream providing sufficient
lift for scattered weak showers along the front along/ahead of the
wave. This will provide an additional .5-1" prior to the core of
the deep wave MCV with strongest moisture flux convergence.
Additionally, the depth of the warm cloud layer is over 12Kft and
so even the weak instability below that layer combined with the
enchained low level moisture is supporting efficient rainfall
production, so as flux increases near the deep layer wave, the
rates increase to 1-1.5"/hr; resulting in a stripe/streak of 2"+
north of the front.

GOES-Visible imagery shows clearing through the northern
Shenandoah Valley into south-central PA, broken cloud coverage
over central MD may limit some insolation, but strong theta-E flux
through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain sees Tds increasing above
72-75F already and tight western gradient can be seen in analysis
fields. This will likely lift and intersect the boundary toward
the 18z time period and timing of the arrival of the MCV. As
such, thunderstorm activity is likely to increase in coverage and
definitely intensity providing stronger moisture flux. MLCAPEs
forecast over 2000 J/kg along the Chesapeake Bay into SE PA
combined with the 2" TPW should allow for 2-2.5"/hr.

Longer/best convergence near the front may allow for increased residency/broader updrafts capable for 2-4" totals in 1-3hrs.
Flash Flooding will become more likely also in timing with peak
intensity crossing lower FFG (1-1.5"/hr, 1.5-2.5"/3hrs) both due
to hilly terrain but also increasingly urban settings along the
I-95/Delaware River Valley. As such, scattered incidents of flash
flooding are considered likely after 19/20z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8RxiZ05MrRWBr2yOFp56P1k8oPoM_jWNce4ckgdaNymfcV3zfSW9e80y6CtMulgIbWPR3334y-FIwntWZ2BUrDgsG48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41777507 41477428 40747406 40047469 39447565
39067650 38507742 38637811 39267814 39797792
40277865 40567878 40997858 41297789 41627671

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 20, 2026 19:34:40

AWUS01 KWNH 201934
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-202200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1099
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201930Z - 202200Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing ahead of the approaching cells
farther west are capable of producing rainfall rates up to 3"/hr.
Flash flooding is possible this afternoon, especially in poor
drainage areas and within more urbanized communities.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar and GOES East satellite show a cluster
of storms have flared up north of a coastal frontal boundary
located over the northern DelMarVa Peninsula and into the Delaware
Valley. The environment is ripe for highly efficient rainfall
rates. RAP mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE has risen between 1,000-2,000
J/kg from the heart of the Chesapeake Bay to southern NJ. PWs are
quite high, ranging between 2.0-2.2" over the coastal
Mid-Atlantic. Brisk SWrly 850mb winds will transport this pool of
anomalous moisture aloft into the rest of southern NJ, where
instability is increasing and dew points are reaching the low-mid
70s. These storms also have exceptional vertical wind shear aloft,
as effective bulk shear values are >40 kts and effective SRH
values are between 100-200 m2/s2. This environment does favor
potential mesocyclones within developing storms, which does help
to further enhance rainfall rates.

MRMS 15-minute rainfall totals are topping out around 0.75" in
some parts of northern DE and southern coastal NJ. This suggests
ongoing thunderstorms are capable of producing 3"/hr rainfall
rates. The concern for flash flooding comes from the potential for
discrete cells over southern NJ and the northern DelMarVa ahead of
the approaching storms from northern VA, central MD, and
south-central PA. The 18Z HRRR shows the potential for additional
cells over the DelMarVa Peninsula that may flare up along the sea
breeze boundary. These storms could briefly back-build before
heading north and east towards the Delaware Bay. Farther north,
the increase vertical wind shear and upper-level forcing ahead of
an approaching 500mb vort max will foster excellent ascent aloft,
allowing for additional storms from the west to reach southern NJ.

Flash flooding is possible this afternoon and into this evening,
given the highly efficient rainfall rates that are both ongoing
and are still to come in areas currently receiving heavy rainfall.
Poor drainage areas and locations with greater influences from
urbanization are most at-risk.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7_n4PG8XRmbtStlLbQrXrgKANS7kV2CdJ20NqSpHd197vsSFPIAUlajgV7laJxH_RzqeZvnCU3eQGudNkOcRSUiigg0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40487409 40457393 40347376 40157374 39817387
39277405 38877425 38427460 38347504 38407552
38477590 38577613 38697627 38837637 39047638
39157613 39247591 39457558 39567536 39727507
39887486 40097460 40277443 40437424

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 20, 2026 21:56:18

AWUS01 KWNH 202155
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-210330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1100
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 202200Z - 210330Z

SUMMARY...A strengthening low-level cyclone will tap into copious
amounts of atmospheric moisture and increasing instability to
produce excessive rainfall rates up to 3"/hr. Flash flooding is
likely this evening in parts of the heavily urbanized I-95
corridor. Locally significant and life-threatening flash flooding
is possible, especially north of the storm track.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite imagery shows a blossoming area
of strong-to-severe storms over southeast PA that are racing
towards the Delaware Valley, with additional storms heading for
the NYC metro. These storms are a byproduct of a volatile
atmospheric setup: a potent 500mb shortwave trough and a 250mb jet
streak's diffluent right-entrance region are providing excellent
upper-level ascent, while a strengthening low-level cyclone in
eastern PA happens to coincide within a highly unstable and
tropical air-mass.

PWs will range between 2.0-2.25" from the I-95 corridor on east
along the NJ Shore and as far north as the Tri-State area. Dew
points in southern NJ and the northern DelMarVa are in the low-mid
70s as well. MUCAPE is highest over the DelMarVa and southern NJ,
but a narrow area of 500-1,000 J/kg MUCAPE is available from
Trenton on north and east to Long Island. Effective bulk shear is

40kts and effective SRH is >100 m2/s2, giving storms the

potential to develop mesocyclones within them. 20Z HRRR area
averaged soundings show warm cloud layers at least 13,000ft deep
and low-mid level RH values >90%. These parameters are indicative
of an atmosphere primed to produce thunderstorms with highly
efficient warm rain processes, which when occurring over a region
that is highly urbanized, is ripe for flash flooding.

Over the next hour, storms will continue to move east through the
I-95 corridor and towards NJ. As the 850mb low moves east and
strengthens, WAA on its eastern flank will lead to wrap-around
anomalous moisture on its northern flank, placing parts of
northern NJ and east towards the NYC metro under a deformation
axis of 925-850mb FGEN aloft. This area of low-level FGEN is
already evident on SPC RAP mesoanalysis, and will continue to move
east this evening. Beneath the 925-850mb FGEN, a narrow corridor
of intense rainfall rates will unfold with hourly rates around
3"/hr likely. New 18Z HREF guidance suggests as high as 30-50%
chances for 1-hr and 3-hr FFG exceedance in northern NJ on east
through the NYC metro this evening.

Portions of northern DE and southern NJ already dealt with storms
over the past couple of hours that have saturated their soils.
Additional storms moving through will contain 2-3"/hr rates and
could cause additional flash flooding, especially in southern NJ.
Farther north over northern NJ, the NYC metro, and eastward to
Long Island, there is increasing concern for at least a couple
hours of 2-3"/hr rainfall rates before finally tapering off close
to midnight. These areas are most at-risk for locally significant
and life-threatening flash flooding with rapid water rises
possible on roads. This could in turn lead to worsening impacts to infrastructure that makes commuting challenging through the
evening hours.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_gxWXUfpmML6m8wAXp0iuji_aQFstiZrZY4YZ31jWWsckYKiUkS6nYrpvvvAoI4iLFhp9eLwAsJDKMWKyqGxx1SMa0w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41667357 41587303 41407282 41077270 40677273
40067320 39317360 38867413 38537468 38177552
38137625 38527733 38947704 39527620 40407602
40667596 41017559 41127488 41327443 41657388

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 05:25:20

AWUS01 KWNH 070525
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0960
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070523Z - 071000Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will expand across
eastern Kansas and then repeat through the morning. Rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr will be common, leading to 2-4" of rain. Flash flooding
is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows development
of thunderstorms across portions of eastern Kansas. This activity
is developing along the nose of a modest but intensifying 850mb
LLJ which has risen to 20-30 kts over southern Kansas and into
Oklahoma. This LLJ is emanating from a plume of 1.5" PWs and 2000
J/kg MUCAPE, helping to transport these robust thermodynamics
northward while concurrently isentropically ascending a stationary
front to the south. The convergence along the nose combined with
this isentropic lift is occurring within a region of mid-level
thickness diffluence to additionally enhance ascent. It is this
WAA beneath the collocated synoptic lift which is resulting in the
rapid expansion of thunderstorms during the past hour.

The high-res CAMs are in good general agreement that thunderstorms
will continue to expand and then repeat across eastern Kansas.
This will be in response to a subtle increase in the LLJ reaching
30-35 kts, while slowly veering more to the ENE. The resulting WAA
should provide sufficient thermodynamic replenishment to allow for
storms to repeatedly fire and then track slowly E/SE through the
morning. With rain rates progged to be 1-2"/hr at times (40-60%
chance of 1"+/hr from both the HREF and REFS), repeating of these
cells could cause stripes of 2-4" of rain with isolated higher
amounts possible (5-10% chance of 5 inches according to the HREF).

7-day rainfall across eastern Kansas has been quite variable, with
some areas receiving very little rainfall while others have
exceeded 200% of normal. This has resulted in a sharp gradient in
soil moisture, and 3-hr FFG that varies from as low as 1.5" to as
high as 4" (gradient from ENE to WSW). Despite this, the
likelihood of repeating heavy rain rates creates FFG exceedance
from the HREF that spikes to 20-30% later this morning, suggesting
at least an isolated flash flood risk is developing. The greatest
chance for impacts appears to be between Wichita and Topeka (in
the vicinity of Emporia and north to I-70) where the LLJ
convergence may maximize and linger, but any location that
receives repeating rounds, especially atop the more saturated
soils, could experience impacts due to flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7pY6b9sRqR1hrT5CYrkHtU3uhOEt5x-6mD4qWrJMh29PTaWaPidgkISdIuwGKqfmgVMxhFPXSrW-0twGBqwckTpLtf4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40039682 39609577 38999482 38129427 37329416
36819477 36749591 36849671 37329739 38159781
38839818 39539852 40029810

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 09:51:14

AWUS01 KWNH 070951
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-071500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0961
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070949Z - 071500Z

Summary...Persistent and slow moving thunderstorms will continue
across eastern Kansas through the morning. Rainfall rates as high
as 2"/hr are likely within these storms, leading to 2-4" of rain
with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a
continued expansion of clusters of thunderstorms positioned over
eastern Kansas. This activity has been ongoing for several hours
now, and is likely to continue well into the morning. Recent MRMS
hourly rainfall has been as much as 2" in isolated locations, with
overnight rain as much as 4" in a narrow corridor between I-35 and
I-70 west of Emporia leading to FLASH unit streamflow response as
high as 300 cfs/smi.

The setup for continued heavy rainfall is quite favorable. Forcing
for ascent continues to be driven by an 850mb LLJ that has
strengthened to 40 kts over central KS, with rapidly veering winds
between 925-700mb helping to advect this moisture (overlapped with
MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg to improve thermodynamics) into the area.
This is seen clearly on the advected LPW fields showing
convergence of the 850-700mb PW directly into the ongoing
convection. The accompanying WAA is not only converging into
850-700mb boundary, but simultaneously isentropically ascending a
stationary front just to the SW within a region of mid-level
thickness diffluence to additionally support large-scale lift.
This suggests that convection will continue well into the morning,
which is supported by high-res CAMs simulated reflectivity.

Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely to continue for several more
hours as indicated by HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities.
This will increase the flash flood risk across the area as storms
repeatedly develop within the WAA and then track E/SE. Although
individual cells should be generally progressive as propagation
vectors are above 20 kts, continued development back into the
elevated thermodynamics to the west will support
training/repeating, and the HREF indicates a 20-25% chance of
locally as much as an additional 5" of rain through late morning.
This will occur atop soils that have become saturated already by
morning rainfall, so any additional rainfall will likely quickly
become runoff, leading to an increased potential for isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7TThY2Lzw_ncSwjzyGJ_szPs-g_dpGG85dUDJxQBVZXX2jtYgKliGfJlC81UVCyZYVAwMKXQKjRmHvOBu9IgXLuqrEU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40319717 40299651 39599599 38489503 37889489
37229498 36759592 36819690 36869717 37079758
37389776 37939801 38789797 39509794 40089765

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 15:04:14

AWUS01 KWNH 071504
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-072101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0962
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1102 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...much of Pennsylvania, far northern West Virginia,
far southwestern New York State, western/northern Maryland

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071501Z - 072101Z

Summary...A few spots of FFG exceedance were noted just northeast
of Pittsburgh over the past couple hours. At least isolated
instances of flash flooding are possible this morning, with an increasing/expanding threat expected through the early afternoon.

Discussion...Scattered deep convection was noted primarily across
the western 1/4 of PA this morning, with more isolated storms
observed over northern WV, central OH, and far southwestern NY
state. The storms are in an abundantly moist environment (2+ inch
PW) that, when combined with modest westerly steering flow, was
fostering areas of 1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates that were locally
exceeding FFG in a few spots. The ongoing scenario should persist
for a few hours due to continued surface heating of this moist
airmass and ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough
approaching from Ohio. Isolated instances of flash flooding are
expected in the short term.

With time, models (particularly CAMs) depict an increase in
convective coverage through the afternoon hours particularly
focused on central PA and vicinity. This increase in convective
coverage should result in increase flash flood potential given the
high PW airmass and modest steering flow, although models also
hint at gradual upscale growth into clusters/linear segments that
might forward propagate and limit the extent (space/intensity) of
rain rates. Still, with downstream areas of central/eastern PA
having been wet from prior rainfall, instances of flash flooding
can be expected through the day on at least an isolated basis.
This threat will likely extend beyond the 21Z expiration time of
this MPD.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9qUx9r_EKkKu68gs0HL89IGbqmUcDHD6--ek4LKzmoQ341hOBetdKXr16jS0HZmWQNAfcCdBAeNpXQf_8VimDDxViBw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42657839 42247627 41297545 39917576 39407742
39247979 40068077 41768004

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 15:25:16

AWUS01 KWNH 071525
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-072123-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0963
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1124 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, western
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071523Z - 072123Z

Summary...Robust thunderstorm development over western Minnesota
will pose a flash flood risk as it spreads eastward/southeastward
across the discussion area through 21Z/4p central.

Discussion...Thunderstorms have quickly developed across western
MN and vicinity (near Willmar, Redwood Falls/west of Mankato) and
were already producing spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates per MRMS.
The storms were in a strongly unstable environment, with 7-8C/km
mid-level lapse rates, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and 1.5+ inch PW values
all supporting intense updrafts with heavy rainfall. Storms are
also forming ahead of a mid-level wave along the ND/MN border, and
confluence along a surface trough/front across western portions of
the discussion area was also fostering updraft development amid
modest convective inhibition.

Models/CAMs are in decent agreement that storms will continue to
expand in coverage while remaining intense with eastward
progression across southern MN/northern IA and perhaps western WI
through the afternoon. There is potential that storms evolve into clusters/lines that forward propagate, though 1.5 inch PW will
support locally heavy rainfall. FFG thresholds are in the 1.5
inch/hr range (locally lower near Minneapolis/St. Paul Metro) and
may be readily exceeded at times on at least an isolated basis.
Soil moisture data (per NASA) suggests wet soils with downstream
extent into southeastern MN and eastern IA, supporting at least an
isolated flash flood threat in those areas. This will will likely
persist through 21Z/4p central today.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7hOFcbOWSbV96q1-BgdSvu3nv-h7oBELFloglax0jlt96wxPxNhUYf97_JkEuirS2OGJ4PqgSJx6hXQIEhBaUANGDL8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46059444 45819284 44919146 43779103 42809142
42259233 42179463 43159548 44159557 45639546

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 18:02:02

AWUS01 KWNH 071801
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-080000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0964
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of New York, New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071800Z - 080000Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms in from Pennsylvania and central
New York state will eventually help prompt isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding across the discussion area through
00Z/8p eastern.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts scattered
thunderstorms across PA/NY generally from Ithaca southward through
Harrisburg and eastward to near Scranton. The storms are in an
abundantly moist airmass (near 2 inch PW), and with weak/modest
steering flow across much of the region (10-15 knots from the
WSW), local rain rates to around 2 inches/hr have been noted per
MRMS at times due to slow storm motions.

Meanwhile, the downstream airmass (encompassing much of the
discussion area) is heating up/destabilizating and will soon
support convection both 1) moving eastward from PA/NY into the
region and 2) developing across the region. Ground conditions are wet/sensitive from prior rainfall over the past few days, and
local FFGs are near zero across northern NJ and around 1 inch/hr
from central NJ through Philadelphia northward into much of
southern NY state. Areas of flash flooding are expected as storms
migrate eastward.

The overall degree of flash flood risk may depend on convective
mode -- more forward propagating convection (with upscale growth)
might limit rain rates some what. Recent radar trends are
concerning though, and suggest that a mix of lines and merging
cells can be expected, increasing local rain rates to 2 inches at
times and on an isolated to scattered basis. Flash flooding is
likely, and some concern exists for impacts to urban areas from
Philadelphia northeastward to New York City and points northward.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_lCT-DrvsqwXmxI3ya_ZKS9wYO3J7DbcnIC16ujZk0OrxGBAhGoyK9e-8Fm9wlpRzBLo5gnqUSGjgCYgKUPz6UJZLdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BUF...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43247572 43247372 42247301 41467295 40727339
40157412 39847519 40277594 41587617 43017663

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 19:28:14

AWUS01 KWNH 071927
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0965
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...OH Valley into central/southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071925Z - 080100Z

Summary...At least isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding
are expected across portions of the OH Valley into the central
Appalachians through the early evening. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches and total rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches are expected.

Discussion...19Z radar imagery across the upper OH Valley into
portions of the central Appalachians showed scattered
thunderstorms with a few regions of greater coverage. Trends over
the past 1-2 hours have shown increased coverage of storms over
southwestern OH, from eastern KY into western VA and along the
Cumberland Plateau of TN. The storms farther north were located
ahead of an advancing shortwave trough, with the right-entrance
region of a 50-60 kt upper jet max enhancing upper level
divergence across portions of the upper OH Valley. The broad
region from the OH Valley to the Appalachians contained 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE and modestly positive PW anomalies of +1 to +2 above
the mean.

Given speed shear was low to modest at best across the area, storm
organization should remain limited across the region but the high
moisture environment and varied storm motions ranging from ~15 kt
up north to ~5 kt down south should allow for locally higher
rainfall rates with hourly values of 1 to 2+ inches expected.
Storm mergers with related outflow interactions and subsequent
convective development could support brief areas of training as
well. While the flash flood threat doesn't appear to be
particularly focused in any given area across the OH Valley into
the central and southern Appalachians, at least a few areas of
flash flooding will be likely given flash flood guidance values
under 2 inches in 1 and 3 hours for portions of the region,
although flash flood coverage should remain limited due a lack of
larger scale forcing.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ei3Vu7eEwx7cEY9EKWxtWelQa4XQH93sypzS1Ul3D_ENoW6RlpB8NYPVhCBfujdZ1xwR6j1AiHHhwgJrj_1gyjj-w8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40018483 39648311 39278175 39078089 38908008
38347989 37958001 37198054 36268135 34978323
34798547 36248551 37588559 38878644 39528637
40008576

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 20:08:42

AWUS01 KWNH 072008
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-080200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0966
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...northwestern AZ into southwestern UT and portions
of southern/eastern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072005Z - 080200Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible through
02Z from northwestern AZ into southwestern UT and portions of
southern/eastern NV. Hourly to sub-hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches
are expected.

DISCUSSION...1945Z satellite imagery showed maturing cumulus and a
few thunderstorms along portions of the higher terrain from
eastern/southern NV into southwestern UT and northwestern AZ. PW
values have increased compared to 24 hours ago over southern NV
and southwestern UT with the 18Z VEF sounding showing 1.4 inches
of precipitable water. PW values were most anomalous across
southern NV with 150 to 200 percent of normal depicted for what is
already the peak climatological max of moisture across the region.
The upper pattern showed that the center of a mid to upper level
ridge was located over southwestern UT with deeper layer steering
flow of 5 kt or less over the region.

While convective inhibition remains at this relatively early hour
outside of the terrain, expectations are for continued daytime
heating to erode remaining CIN across portions of the region with
expanding thunderstorm coverage over the next 3 hours through 23Z.
While the immediate Colorado River Valley along the NV/AZ may stay
free from thunderstorms through the early evening given
uncertainties of eroding CIN, slow movement of cells and the
anomalous moisture should support high rainfall rates with 0.5 to
1.0 inches in 15-30 minutes expected in neighboring locations and
into the Slot Canyon region of southwestern UT. Flash flooding
will be possible with storm totals generally in the 1-2 inch
range, although storm totals locally over 2 inches will be
possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-nQHCaNGCQ3v6Jh-fEt-4OaYdRSVRt-S3l6f1NLAVqt4dwFQd_A6Fh3XoTCFbBYScSG96ifxpTJFF42UbAGftP4862Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39051410 38871305 38511233 37851180 37491170
36911162 36431150 36051149 35571138 35221148
34941190 34821314 34701381 35171470 35351506
35801576 36521648 37181676 37821681 38241656
38631622 38851566 39011507

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 20:46:22

AWUS01 KWNH 072046
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0967
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...D.C. into northeastern MD, northern DE and
southern NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072044Z - 080130Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rain with 1 to 3+ inch totals will pose a
risk of flash flooding from D.C. through northeastern MD, northern
DE and southern NJ. The flash flood threat is expected to
translate from NW to SE through 01Z.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery at 2030Z showed scattered
thunderstorms advancing ESE across eastern and southeastern PA
with an outflow boundary advancing from southeastern PA into
northern MD. Out ahead, a low level confluence axis was supporting
slow moving thunderstorms from Baltimore and points north along
I-95 in northeastern MD. While the outflow is progressive toward
the southeast, convective development out ahead is aligned with
the mean steering flow from WSW to ENE or SW to NE, which should
allow for at least brief areas of training. Thunderstorms are
expected to continue advancing south and east into the northern
Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours and MLCAPE of 2000-2500 along
with PWs near 2 inches will be supportive of high rainfall rates
between 1 and 2 inches in an hour. However, where cell training
maximizes, hourly totals in 2 inches will be possible. The flash
flood threat will be greatest along the urban corridor from D.C.
to Philadelphia, with the threat advancing downstream into
portions of the northern DelMarVa Peninsula and portions of
southern NJ into the early evening hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5lxAfAXOfYW4oroDK9G0-9d8NUjBtrvIs8iPP2m3HLEvuV4nDe79WTGkAdh229hvVGQgGoKpJvQrMn7CWVasWmj6agQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40347455 40347409 39877371 38967475 38707591
38827691 39067718 39407705 39857624 40247531

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 21:38:52

AWUS01 KWNH 072138
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-080330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0968
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
537 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...southern MO into northern AR and eastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072136Z - 080330Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is likely across
portions of southern MO into northern AR and eastern OK through
00Z. Training of heavy rain within the expanding area of
thunderstorms is expected to allow for 2 to 4 inch totals (locally
higher) and areas of flash flooding through 03Z.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery from 2120Z showed a
well-defined MCV over western MO with isolated convective
development to its southwest over southwestern MO. Meanwhile area
radar imagery showed a SSE propagating cluster of thunderstorms
along with an MCV over south-central OK, preceded by an outflow
boundary to its south, curving northward into eastern OK, where
cloud cover from the MO MCV has contributed to a differential
heating boundary between southwestern MO and areas west and north
of the MO MCV. A smaller outflow boundary was also analyzed in the
vicinity of the Ouachita Mountains over south-central AR. The
environment to the south and east of the large
outflow/differential heating boundary contained an estimated
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches via 21Z SPC
mesoanalysis data.

While there is likely some weak subsidence behind a smaller MCV
over north-central AR, advancement of the western MO and OK MCVs
slowly southeast will be coincident with an increase in the
southwesterly 925-850 mb winds from eastern OK into western
AR/southwestern MO into the 15-25 kt range per recent RAP
forecasts. The approaching mid-level ascent coupled with low level
overrunning beneath broadly diffluent/divergent flow aloft should
support an increase in thunderstorms from eastern OK into southern
MO and central/northern AR and over the next 2-3 hours. Individual
cells tracking from west to east are expected to focus axes of
training heavy rain with 1 to 2+ inch per hour rainfall, as the
cluster of storms tracks eastward/southeastward with time. Some
areas of flash flooding may occur as a result.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7IZMFEl4KadTsIy9nPalonlyxyIjUhwFQIQYnXGqDG3evucnsRcFWrDfdmUfz2om3bejnS7KxboZo2hM9dIphS4OUZo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37479106 37219025 36409024 35699084 35329144
34769257 34689380 35179469 36189507 37249365

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 00:09:40

AWUS01 KWNH 080009
FFGMPD
NMZ000-080510-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0969
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...eastern third of NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080007Z - 080510Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of east-central to eastern NM through about 06Z. Peak hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches can be expected in a few locations.

DISCUSSION...2335Z infrared satellite and radar imagery showed
ongoing thunderstorms across portions of the Sacramento Mountains,
northward toward about I-40. Additional, scattered thunderstorms
were located over portions of northeastern NM, to the north of
I-40 and east of I-25. An axis of estimated MLCAPE ranging from
500 to 1500 J/kg extended southwestward from the northern TX
Panhandle into east-central NM where precipitable water values of
0.8 to 1.1 inches existed, per 23Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

The northern half of NM was situated beneath the southeastern edge
of a large mid to upper-level ridge centered over southwestern UT,
with weak deeper layer steering flow from the north to northeast
of less than 10 kt. This was contributing to a few slow moving
cells but a broader outflow boundary was becoming better defined
from Torrance County, northeastward into northeastern San Miguel
County. Meanwhile, the current 15 kt VAD wind measured 850 mb wind
at KFDX is forecast to increase following the typical diurnal
cycle into the 20-25 kt range by 04Z from the northern TX/NM
border into portions of eastern NM, which should increase
overrunning and convergence along the leading edge of the outflow
boundary as it likely continues to advance S to SSE over the next
few hours. The environment will be supportive of locally high
hourly rainfall values of 1 to 1.5 inches, but with isolated
hourly totals near 2 inches possible. These high rates are
expected to affect portions of the eastern third of NM over the
next 3-5 hours. The flash flood threat will likely end from north
to south with time with isolated storm totals generally expected
to be capped in the 1 to 2 inch range (locally 2+ inch totals
possible) given an expectation for increasing forward speed with
the advancing outflow.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6kyBPOW577k_oS_aFv3fIRJE3gRFw-Svklvt7tes2iB7q9XJjqtwDQMc8Sbz-ftrF8gbohY67d5smx6LpJIFKIZdbqI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36250359 36160310 35180313 33600358 32720386
32330456 32330528 32480564 32910586 33840591
34150584 35260568 35810528 36180406

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 01:45:22

AWUS01 KWNH 080143
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-080700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0970
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
941 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...eastern IN into OH/northern KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080140Z - 080700Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be possible from parts of
eastern IN into OH and possibly northern portions of KY through
07Z. Training will support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with
isolated totals of 2 to 4 inches.

Discussion...Radar imagery through 0115Z showed an increase in the
coverage of scattered thunderstorms over eastern IN, located just
on the cool side of a remnant outflow boundary that extended from
just northeast of Indianapolis, IN into northeastern KY. Water
vapor imagery showed an approaching shortwave trough from WI to
eastern MO, advancing eastward, with about 15-20 kt of 925-850 mb
flow in place from the OH River into central IN/OH, out ahead of
the shortwave trough. Central IN seemed to have both the high
moisture (1.8 inch PW) and notable instability (2100 J/kg MLCAPE)
seen on the ILX and ILN soundings, but ILX was drier and ILN was
more stable.

As the upstream shortwave continues to advance east over the next
6 hours, RAP guidance shows the 925-850 mb flow out ahead
increasing into the 20-30 kt range over IN/OH/northern KY. The
increasing ascent ahead of the shortwave and isentropic lift over
the remnant outflow boundary should allow for increasing
thunderstorm coverage across eastern IN into OH over the next 3-6
hours. Areas of stability currently present over southern OH due
to earlier rainfall are expected to destabilize later tonight with
the advection of low level moisture back into the region. While
850-300 mb mean layer winds are progressive from the W to WSW a
20-25 kt, the increasing low level jet of nearly a similar
orientation could support some repeating and training of any
smaller thunderstorm clusters that develop. The environment will
be supportive of hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches with
isolated storm totals of 2-4 inches. With much of the area
containing 3-hr flash flood guidance values of around 2 inches,
some areas of flash flooding may occur through 07Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9P7la5YcLmUEyO6YQN4o5aU3cFfnigPMnnyXFttmi3qADcsKdDMCspIPG9Qj21yd_mV9fyG5051Cjem39xIaGPjerew$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41748217 41298189 40688192 39428248 38668369
38588448 38698582 39268674 40298659 40978573
41348359

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 03:26:30

AWUS01 KWNH 080326
FFGMPD
LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0971
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Southern Missouri through far Northeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080324Z - 080900Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to move slowly
across the Ozarks and towards the ArkLaTex overnight. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are expected, which through slow storm motions or
repeating cells could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows multiple
clusters of thunderstorms moving slowly from southern Missouri
through far northeast Texas. This activity is developing in
response to multiple MCVs noted in radar, downstream of a more
prominent shortwave digging out of the Central Plains. These
features are driving locally enhanced ascent, with additional lift
occurring along outflows and remnant differential heating
boundaries. The thermodynamic environment across the area is
characterized by PWs around 2 inches and collocated MUCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg, to support hourly rainfall which has been measured
via MRMS to be as high as 1.5 - 2.0 inches in the past few hours.

The high-res CAMs differ in the evolution with respect to coverage
and position of convection, but nearly all solutions show at least
scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain rates continuing the next
few hours. The focus will likely be along and south of the current
MCVs as they locally enhanced ascent, while modest 25kt bulk shear
helps organize new development into additional clusters. The HREF
and REFS both indicate a 30-50% chance of at least 1"/hr rain
rates for several more hours, supported by modest 850mb inflow
resupplying the favorable thermodynamics northward into the area.
0-6km mean winds are progged to remain light at just around 5 kts,
and as the inflow veers overnight, Corfidi vectors may collapse to
support weak and chaotic storm motions, aided by boundary
collisions and storm mergers. This will create 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts above 4" possible

Although portions of the Ozarks of AR and MO have experienced
slightly above normal rainfall the past 7-days, much of this
region has been dry, leading to elevated 3-hr FFG that is
generally 3-4 inches. These dry antecedent conditions will likely
limit the flash flood potential overnight. However, an isolated
risk will continue for several more hours, especially where these
intense rain rates move most slowly or across any of the locally
more vulnerable soils.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9WUdpvHSnaEphrnKLG9fG6cvi7BJbOq5TSOy-55dFJITP9bEe07Jig8pclUIXkJDUE0HRWD9DiVJzmCMJxvSWrkhGgE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37729186 37529059 37079033 35919064 34199151
33729200 33339280 32809326 32619405 32899455
33219498 33789532 34769539 36229460 36929408
37449326

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 04:51:52

AWUS01 KWNH 140451
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-141030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1044
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Southern OH...Western WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140449Z - 141030Z

SUMMARY...New rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be expected
locally going through the overnight hours. High rainfall rates and
wet antecedent conditions will support a likelihood for some
additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES satellite and radar data shows heavy
showers and thunderstorms redeveloping across areas of southern
OH, with this activity attempting to advance into western WV. The
activity is generally developing and/or persisting in response to
broader west to southwest flow advancing across the OH Valley,
with a resulting warm air advection pattern driving the eastward
transport of moisture and instability.

Multiple instability gradients are noted across the region, with
one notable one over southern OH and into western WV where MUCAPE
values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg are noted. PWs are quite high with
values of 2.0 to 2.25 inches, and this environment is supporting
rainfall rates as high as 2 inches/hour with the stronger
convective cores.

The latest hires model CAMs are not overly wet here overnight, but
with the current convective trends and cooling cloud tops,
short-term upscale growth of convection is expected. Rainfall
totals may reach into the 2 to 4+ inch range going through dawn,
and this will be supported by the alignment of the convection with
the deeper layer steering flow which will support cell-training
concerns.

Given the very sensitive antecedent conditions and current
radar/satellite trends, at least scattered areas of additional
flash flooding will be likely over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8x57lbDIjwrcvp9EtitAtDCM0rsyF4mtlFcsRyEwEzFpuvxml5W0PxY5WZVP_5tGd9B1Ve5bOpDVfWYBV2Z4gmBbUEc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40348343 40248217 39588097 38938043 38268041
37848099 37968182 38378260 39018366 39538401

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 07:32:40

AWUS01 KWNH 140732
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-141330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern NE...Central/Southern IA...Far Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140730Z - 141330Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible through early this morning from multiple rounds of heavy
showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a strong
MCS lifting northeastward across south-central NE with very cold
convective tops as low as -80C. This convective complex is
generally progressive in nature, and is situated north of a
frontal zone draped across the central Plains and Lower MO Valley.

Shortwave energy advancing east-northeast over the top side of the
subtropical ridge over the southern Plains is interacting with the
nose of rather strong instability gradient oriented up across
southeast NE which is also seen extending east across central and
southern IA and into far western IL. A southwest 30 to 40+ kt
low-level jet is overrunning the aforementioned frontal zone and
is being channeled out ahead of the MCS over south-central NE.

Additional areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are developing
across western IA currently as the nose of stronger warm air
advection and corresponding isentropic ascent crosses this region.

The latest hires multi-model consensus suggests that multiple
rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms may impact areas of
eastern NE through especially central and southern IA through
early this morning. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour will be
expected, and with locally repeating rounds of convection, some 2
to 4 inch rainfall totals will be possible over the next several
hours.

Antecedent conditions across the region are rather moist with
rather low FFG values. This suggests the additional rainfall
threat this morning may produce some isolated to scattered areas
of flash flooding. The more urbanized areas will be at greatest
risk for potential impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!49wK9p5lnvKls_P2EjI58UQHoI_mB8hiGdim_wfa2yEltupG10lLmiL5xdofM589TiHI_UoEWvvTOUPldL8Gc4-dDNQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42829493 42629226 41789045 40689078 40659261
40589526 40169797 40399910 40989943 42099814

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 08:36:04

AWUS01 KWNH 140835
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-141430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1046
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Far Southeast IA...Central IL...Central and
Southern IN...Central and Southern OH...Northeast KY...Western WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140833Z - 141430Z

SUMMARY...An expansive axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue this morning across sizable portions of the OH
Valley. Numerous areas of flash flooding will continue over the
next several hours, with locally significant/dangerous flash
flooding impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a large
area of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting far southeast IA
through central IL, central IN and western OH. The overall
convective footprint remains generally confined to an elevated
instability gradient situated north of a stationary front across
the Middle MS and OH Valley region.

A nose of stronger low-level jet energy (30+ kts) is seen VWP data
riding up across northeast MO and into areas of central and
western IL and overrunning this boundary. Over the last hour, some
very strong overshooting top activity has been noted here with
cloud top temperatures as cold as -80C. Isentropic ascent
continues to extend downstream across central IN and western OH,
and over the next few hours, this will help sustain an axis of
heavy showers and thunderstorms here as well.

MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are in place, with the greatest
values noted over central IL and west-central to southwest IN. PWs
are also quite high and indicative of a tropical environment with
values of 2.0 to 2.25 inches. This will support convection with
extreme rainfall rates capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour for
at least the next few hours.

Developing cold pool activity over areas of central IN through
western OH may help the eastern flank of the convective axis to
settle more to the southeast in time this morning, allowing for
more of a west-northwest to east-southeast convective orientation
that will be conducive for additional cell-training. Already as
much as 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen over the last 6 hours
across parts of eastern IL and central IN based on the latest MRMS
data, with numerous areas of flash flooding ongoing.

The latest multi-model hires guidance suggests that the overall
convective mass should begin to weaken after 12Z (7AM CDT), but
with the level of instability in place across the Lower OH Valley
near this front and the aforementioned low-level jet arriving from
the Middle MS Valley, it is possible that the ongoing MCS activity
may last longer than the model guidance supports. This may
especially be the case across western and central IL down through
south-central IN.

Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches will be possible this
morning before convection eventually begins to wane. Numerous
areas of flash flooding will continue, and some locally
significant/dangerous flash flooding impacts will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9rcC0l8apmR5denQvHasFmidaMm9ddRw56ao7oKTwRSiccZIPEKTZUqhajF_Ejetfsy7xUFirMQ2VBCQ2I4-Yc40ReU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK... LOT...LSX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41428970 40988729 40878580 40918360 40618161
39778057 38718055 38278071 37718131 37718288
38388503 38858782 39419022 40179145 40939156
41389089

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 12:08:52

AWUS01 KWNH 141208
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-141800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1047
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
806 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Central & Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141200Z - 141800Z

SUMMARY...Increasing westerly low-mid level winds and healthy
moisture advection will lead to developing thunderstorms along the
central and southern Appalachians this morning and persist into
the early afternoon. Flash flooding is likely, especially in areas
with highly sensitive soils and along rugged terrain.

DISCUSSION...11Z surface analysis showed a long stationary front
positioned over the OH Valley and stretching as far east as the
DelMarVa Peninsula. Doppler Radar and GOES-19 satellite depicted
an MCV over OH that was responsible for a cluster of potent
thunderstorms in southern Ohio that were making their way east
towards WV. The environment is already ripe for storms that are
likely to contain efficient warm rain processes. PWs are above
1.5" for just about the entire highlighted area, and PWs in
southern OH are topping 2". This highly saturated air-mass in OH
is being directed east within a strengthening area of westerly
850-500mb winds, which are oriented perpendicular to the mountain
range. This means better upslope enhancement in an environment
that is weakly capped and will support more additional
thunderstorms along windward facing slopes of the central and
southern Appalachians.

Developing thunderstorms will have between 500-1,000 J/kg of
MUCAPE at their disposal and 1000-500mb mean RH values are >80%.
As daytime heating increases, surface based heating will be
stronger farther south towards the Smokeys where early glimpses
from visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the cloud cover,
particularly farther upstream in eastern KY, southwest VA, and
eastern TN. In addition, freezing levels are over 15,000ft in some
cases with warm cloud layers up to 13,000ft deep. Soils are also
fairly saturated ahead of these storms with FLASH CREST soil
saturation showing between 50-75% along the Appalachians and some
isolated areas over 75%.

The blend of increasing upslope flow, anomalous PWs that will
approach 2" later this morning, and sufficient instability is
likely to result in storms that contain excessive rainfall rates
over 2"/hr in some cases. 1-hr FFGs for the majority of the
central and southern Appalachians are <1.5", and 3-hr FFGs are
even more concerning, especially in southern WV, SW VA, and
eastern TN with <2" FFGs. Storms will persist into the early
afternoon with potentially more storms later this afternoon. Flash
flooding is likely today in the central and southern Appalachians
with rugged/steep terrain most at-risk.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6d75aoE-gOsuI6le3CsAV31hucaT4vsGpoz3lX1Q7HMJVaKXmHUMLybJSTRbcTAzlfQUKvtjIcJ53O5xhrD_ZwHZVfQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39748023 39717992 39687944 39637923 39477899
39097903 38457928 37807967 37508009 37018053
36628110 36128163 35628211 35518254 35608324
35848348 36328325 36748290 37058253 37488190
37748130 38068078 38758048 38998046 39208047
39528048 39668044

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 13:48:54

AWUS01 KWNH 141348
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-141930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1048
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
947 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern NE...Northeast KS...Northwest
MO...Western IA...Southeast SD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141345Z - 141930Z

SUMMARY...The flash flood threat continues today as an MCV
embedded within anomalous moisture aloft is likely to produce
additional thunderstorms. Additional flash flooding is likely late
morning and into early afternoon as storms potentially produce
rainfall rates up to 3"/hr.

DISCUSSION...GOES-19 satellite imagery and Doppler Radar show a
compact MCV over eastern NE making its way northeast towards the
Missouri River. The axis of heaviest rainfall is where the best
850mb WAA ahead of the MCV is intersecting a cooler airmass over
the Upper Mississippi Valley. RAP mesoanalysis shows PWs between
2.0-2.2" throughout much of the region, which is topping the 99th climatological percentile in many cases. The biggest question lies
in the available instability. Plenty of cloud debris from
overnight thunderstorms is helping to limit surface based heating
initially, but little-to-no capping inversion aloft and the
assistance from the MCV to the west will result any increase in
MUCAPE to support additional thunderstorms this morning and into
this afternoon.

The 12Z HRRR shows that as initial thunderstorm activity
diminishes over northern IA this morning, new storms will flare up
on the eastern and northern flanks of the MCV. Farther south,
where SWrly low-level inflow is interacting with the analyzed
surface front in northeast KS and northern MO, storms may
re-develop in an environment that is likely to see MUCAPE rise to

1,000 J/kg. The copious amounts of moisture (some area-averaged

soundings are saturated as high up as 300mb), increase in elevated
instability, and mid-level support from the MCV is likely to spawn
new thunderstorms that contains hourly rainfall rates as high as
3"/hr. 1-hr FFGs are lowest in eastern NE and along I-80 in
western IA where some FFGs are <1.5" in some cases.

Storms pivoting around the northern and eastern flanks of the MCV
could be the most efficient rainfall producers as they have not
only the anomalous moisture aloft, but also >30 kts of sfc-3km
vertical wind shear, which could help sustain new thunderstorm
activity through early afternoon. Additional flash flooding is
likely in the MO River Valley and as far east as central IA today.
Areas with more saturated soils and poor drainage spots are most
at-risk.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-ueE4UvoAZDFmteQ1EYUpXjSlKuTffnZqd-oJje1Vmqsatthx2kCU2MvrhLVv7gZS-156wrBTbQjfgYZ8b1wWBvsm68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43249571 43089449 42929372 42389276 41479263
40789309 40529382 40299446 39869520 39679570
39219649 39519725 40259717 40539786 40739823
41209834 41499833 41879813 42549763 43119684

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 14:28:28

AWUS01 KWNH 141428
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-142025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1049
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1026 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Northern AZ...Southern UT...Far Southern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141425Z - 142025Z

SUMMARY...Robust thunderstorms tracking over areas with saturated
and sensitive soils could lead to areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES West shows a strong subtropical jet oriented
SSW-NNE over the Lower CO River Valley this morning. The 12Z VEF
sounding showed 250mb winds of 80 kts, which is above the 90th
climatological percentile and right around the max moving average
for mid-August. The jet streak overhead is providing excellent
diffluence overhead while the atmosphere remains weakly capped and
fairly saturated. Storms developed over the Grand Canyon County,
the northern tier of the Mogollon Rim, and as far south just east
of Lake Havasu. Storm motions should be progressive, although near
uniform SSWrly flow aloft is also contributing to upshear Corfidi
vectors that are around 10 kts. Some backbuilding and training
could occur as a result, particularly in areas where higher
terrain is orthogonal to the SSWrly flow within the 850-300mb
layer.

PWs are forecast to range between 1.0-1.25" in the highlighted
area, and MLCAPE should rise up to ~1,000 J/kg over the Lower CO
River Valley by this afternoon. With the presence of the jet
streak aloft fostering upper-level ascent, unusually high vertical
wind shear paired with above normal moisture will support hourly
rainfall rates that could surpass 1.5"/hr in the more intense
storms. Localized rainfall totals over 3" could occur, especially
in areas where training thunderstorms unfold. Soils remains
unusually saturated for much of the at-risk area as well with NASA
SPoRT-LIS showing >90th climatological percentile soil saturation
within the 0-10cm layer. Flash flooding is possible today with
those areas sporting saturated soils, as well as in areas with
rugged terrain, slot canyons, and dry washes.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ZJwEaYh4Xqizxf6_0Hamf4d0kqU7xYXNSTfIu4RwFCM47bDHc1UNboqkD3oxT6UKeWZSy_H9t27W9L8c0Pbwhk5ewU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38891286 38841171 38321113 37331088 36361100
35621094 34791141 34391235 34401355 34361396
34431423 34691436 34991453 35261464 35711468
36591460 37511426 38391377

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 17:40:54

AWUS01 KWNH 141740
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-142345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1050
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
139 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Western MT...Eastern ID...Western WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141745Z - 142345Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over rugged terrain may cause
flash flooding in areas containing sensitive soils (high
saturation and burn scars). Rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr are
possible in the more intense cells this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES West visible satellite imagery and Doppler Radar
are showing a bubbling field of congested cumulus and some
cumulonimbus clouds as of 1715Z. As daytime heating continues,
instability will continue to rise, with RTMA already indicating

200 J/kg of MLCAPE rises over the last few hours. The region

remains beneath an unusually strong 250mb jet streak that aiding
in producing high sfc-6km shear values (>30 kts) in far eastern ID
and western MT. There is also anywhere from 0.75-1.0" PWs that is
available for developing storms, or values that are above the 90th climatological percentile.

Portions of the Bitterroots on east towards the Tetons received
anywhere from 1-2" of rainfall yesterday, which has allowed for
some locations to see an increase in soil saturation. Parts of the
Upper Snake Region on east into western WY now have 0-10cm soil
moisture percentiles above the 90th percentile per NASA SPoRT-LIS.
Combining with atmospheric setup with abnormally saturated soils
does raise the potential for flash flooding this afternoon. 12Z
HREF probabilistic guidance shows low-to-moderate chances (30-50%)
for 6-hr QPF topping 10-yr ARIs from eastern ID to as far north as
the Absaroka, suggesting the potential for rainfall rates to be
heavy enough to prompt flash flood concerns. Hourly rainfall rates

1"/hr are achievable in this setup, and could approach 1.5"/hr in

the most intense storms. The areas most at-risk for flash flooding
are areas that were hit by storms yesterday, as well as burn scars
and locations along rugged terrain.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7QbbCkWEWsZoRxhaYgRxtHiez275SU0bnLO-Xao6vFTWQzZFSEwUZccS5VQwOqLk-vBw-1pWYdtMYkubnCVYenTy8gQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...MSO...PIH...RIW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46501076 46301010 45590956 45200952 44360946
43471005 42571136 42131227 42081280 42251332
42631351 43071344 43341352 43461366 43551382
43681414 43951447 44321472 44921462 45391426
45801385 46151332 46341272 46461176

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 18:38:54

AWUS01 KWNH 141838
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-150040-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1051
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Central Rockies & Central High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141840Z - 150040Z

SUMMARY...Another round of thunderstorms containing hourly
rainfall rates up to 2"/hr are expected. Flash flooding is
possible in areas containing more sensitive soils (high saturation
and burn scars) and within more urbanized communities.

DISCUSSION...GOES-19 shows a growing field of congested cumulus
over the Central Rockies while thunderstorms have flared up over
the Sangre De Cristo farther south. The region is seeing strong
surface based heating with RAP mesoanalysis showing between
400-800 SBCAPE increases over the last three hours. SBCAPE along
and east of the I-25 corridor is forecast to surpass 2,000 J/kg
this afternoon, providing plenty of instability east of the Front
Range. PWs are also over 0.75" in the Rockies while increasing to

1.0-1.25" in the central High Plains. These PWs throughout the

at-risk region remain above the 90th climatological percentile.

The region was hit by scattered strong storms yesterday, which has
raised soil moisture content over the central Rockies and from the
Palmer Divide on north along the I-25 corridor to Denver and
Cheyenne. NASA SPoRT-LIS shows 0-10cm soil moisture values that
are above the 90th climatological percentile, particularly along
the Front Range. Latest 1-hr FFGs remain quite low in the Central
Rockies on east along the I-25 corridor, the Palmer Divide, and
along the I-70 corridor in eastern CO. 1-hr FFGs in these areas
are <1.5"/hr with some localized areas under 1.0". For areas where
repeating storms may occur, some portions of the Front Range have
3-hr FFGs <1.5". These low FFGs highlight the sensitivities in
portions of the at-risk region. Given these factors, flash
flooding is possible again this afternoon and early evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6-9GzSpJss4NccSiHr5_SuZbgssWYxH7TDi4os4qYVVnjHgUgOF_fjslL18x6LbklmyN2CxtM2wfk6DLtab8tv89W2Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41610572 41560504 41520471 41360451 40960453
40510445 40110431 39490412 38930386 38230392
37590398 37240418 36880454 36700474 36390501
36020521 35790546 35890593 36500623 36890629
37240693 37470730 38240751 38820755 39380729
40190727 40620712 40880693 41220655 41440615

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 19:13:04

AWUS01 KWNH 141912
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-150010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1052
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, western
Virginia, northwestern North Carolina, far northeast Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141910Z - 150010Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will pose a flash flood risk
across the central Appalachians and vicinity through at least
23Z/7p eastern.

Discussion...A gradual increase in convective coverage was noted
across the discussion area over the past hour or so, with most
storms focused in one band over southern WV and eastern KY (from
near Beckley, WV to near Lexington, KY). The storms are embedded
on the southern fringe of appreciable flow aloft (30-40 knot
westerly mean steering flow), and while most storms were fairly
progressive, areas of 1.5-2 inch PW values were enabling heavier
rain rates approaching 1 inch/hr in a few spots. Ground
conditions are wet in a few spots, and with areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr
FFG thresholds, it appears that a few areas of flash flooding are
possible over the next few hours.

The extent of flash flood potential over the next few hours will
depend on convective coverage and degree of mergers. CAMs suggest
further upscale growth of the southern WV band of storms with
southeastward extent. These storms should also reach higher PW
values east of the Appalachians, though FFG thresholds also
increase with eastward extent especially east of
I-81/Blacksburg/Roanoke. Instances of flash flooding are possible
on a scattered basis, particularly in low-lying areas and
sensitive terrain. Backbuilding/upstream development in central
to eastern Kentucky also appears possible through the afternoon,
which could prompt another concentrated axis of flash flood
potential there (Lexington vicinity eastward to Jackson) through
23Z as well.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ACVZGIUyj-hei82IkeHpanpWsLSQVvCZPJSQ8hone9-YguKVifdsqFkJeIh6KsrlCLXeD4-x4YyJc9JiZf1zXcxIuI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38588440 38388150 38477926 37417891 36687913
36048022 36108285 36668412 37478520

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 20:51:22

AWUS01 KWNH 142050
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-150249-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1053
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of far west Texas and New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142049Z - 150249Z

Summary...Isolated instance of flash flooding are possible -
particularly near sensitive burn scars and terrain - through
03Z/9p mountain.

Discussion...Areas of thunderstorms are developing amid a very
warm/moist airmass in place across the discussion area. Weak
steering flow aloft (less than 10 kt) was contributing to
slow/erratic storm motions amid areas of 1-1.3 inch PW values,
supporting spots of locally heavy rainfall. Objective
analyses/RAP model and satellite data indicate the presence of a
weak mid-level shortwave trough over south-central New Mexico that
was likely contributing to the increase in convective coverage
along with strong surface heating/insolation. Spots of 1 inch/hr
rain rates were being observed per MRMS on an isolated/spotty
basis, and while these rates weren't exceeding FFG thresholds
areawide, their proximity to locally sensitive terrain and burn
scars suggests the presence of isolated flash flood potential in
this environment.

Most storms are diurnally driven, and the overall meso- to
synoptic scale environment should change very little over the next
several hours. Expect very isolated instances of flash flooding
to remain possible through around 03Z/9p mountain time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Sg77Qj_BNsVcxgocGQrn2OoDDeolHzX468HGquDbMYpNQNZGGezGFEvzgzxYVRJqeKXdRVjLO4Fdp0MKU2qwgm8BSk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35590804 35590718 35280603 35420514 35390475
35270441 34360391 33170368 31970333 30710295
29620297 29120321 29400396 30960542 31640666
31910796 31560831 31670872 33640907 35210891

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 21:19:12

AWUS01 KWNH 142118
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-150317-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1054
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
517 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern Nevada, much of Utah, and northern
Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142117Z - 150317Z

Summary...Areas of slow-moving thunderstorms continue to pose a
flash flood risk across the discussion area. This risk will
likely continue through at least 03Z/9p mountain.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area. Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms have caused several
areas of impacts across far southwestern Utah today. While that
immediate area has experienced a brief lull in convective
activity, surrounding locales continue to experience locally heavy
rainfall (exceeding 1 inch/hr per MRMS) due to slow-moving cells
anchored in modest south-southwesterly steering flow aloft. Cells
are occasionally exhibiting right-moving character, which has led
to local backbuilding and enhancement of rain rates in a few
areas. Rain rates were exceeding FFG at times, and moderate MRMS
Flash responses were also noted -- likely suggestive of local
runoff/flash flooding.

Observations/models are all suggestive that the overall pattern
will change very little through 03Z/9p mountain, with plenty of
insolation and low-level moist advection continuing to provide
sufficient instability for continued thunderstorm development.
Storms may undergo a weakening trend after dark/03Z as low-levels cool/stabilize. Scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected between now and then.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8O3I7ak5qBdk2qyNJSjAB64sn8CWI7Hio4W2VMqV0duz-TKd722QrizSuyYcz_1YsFFvwzMZQPRUuY5CShiEQlRuQfE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40801038 39180951 35980939 34121006 33991349
35911573 36941618 38601629 39491642 40241476
40601191

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 14, 2026 22:25:36

AWUS01 KWNH 142225
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-150323-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1055
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142223Z - 150323Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible - particularly in
urban areas from I-95/Richmond southeastward toward Norfolk and
Virginia Beach through 03Z/11p eastern.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were making steady
southeastward progress from higher terrain of western Virginia and
currently extend from near Charlottesville to South Boston. The
storms were embedded in appreciable west-northwesterly steering
flow aloft, contributing to storm motions of 20-30 knots. Despite
these motions, storms were migrating toward a very high PW airmass
(2-2.3 inch), resulting in very high precipitation potential (and
recent estimates of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates per MRMS near CHO). On
their current track, storms will reach more urbanized (and locally
sensitive) areas of Richmond Metro southeast through Petersburg,
Norfolk, and Virginia Beach in the 2330Z-0200Z (730p-10p eastern)
timeframe. Should these cells maintain their current orientation
and intensity, a few areas of urban flash flooding are possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8C16gxByEX1GYTsQLEow6vCBBpWGR0rF6hxrfq9iXxelq2-I7sGP72TgIYS3uWJ7-LZ_gXF6mBsSg0baJQzpY0yyTAY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38577803 38417691 37587566 36737552 36527642
36567793 36917867 38457884

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 21, 2026 03:51:10

AWUS01 KWNH 210350
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-210949-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1101
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Alabama into northern
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210349Z - 210949Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists with a recently
developed cluster of convection near the Huntsville area. This
convection will slowly migrate eastward while producing areas of
1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates.

Discussion...Deep convection has increased in coverage and began
to congeal into a cluster near the Huntsville, AL area over the
past hour. The storms have formed near a cold front along the
TN/AL border and were being supported by weak ascent associated
with a mid-level wave over Middle Tennessee and a very
moist/unstable airmass along and ahead of the front (2+ inch PW,
3000+ J/kg MLCAPE), supporting efficient rainfall processes
beneath the storms. Furthermore, the storms were in an
environment characterized by weak steering flow aloft (10-20 knots
on average), supporting slow storm motions. The convective
cluster was exhibiting signs of congealing over the past 30
minutes or so, with multiple mergers and slow cell movement
fostering areas of 1.5+ inch/hr rain rates.

Over time, the congealing of this convective cluster should result
in gradual east/southeastward propagation toward northern Georgia.
Downstream areas contain FFG thresholds of around 1.5-2 inch/hr,
which could be exceeded at times given the favorable airmass and
slow cell movement. Downstream areas of sensitive terrain or
urban land surfaces may also be slightly more susceptible to flash
flooding. This risk should exist for at least a few hours tonight
-- perhaps through 09Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9m7-KLQPiZREhtKs-MhWIGy7rLUU3qbUejq8DY44DvJfkQ5eGKxtd78Dt_6Pe2uhj51Tw05Dhi4ZgvJZKH82oZxknsM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35088541 34878407 34438365 33768398 33458587
33918739 34908722

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 21, 2026 15:56:22

AWUS01 KWNH 211556
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-212145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1102
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Much of the Carolinas...Adj. East Central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 211545Z - 212145Z

SUMMARY...Environment for colliding boundaries and sufficient
organization to support 2-2.5"/hr rates with occasionally locally
higher 3"/hr rates probable. Potential for above normal scattered
incidents of 2-4" likely to result in localized flash flooding,
especially near multiple large metro areas through the Piedmont.

DISCUSSION...A favorable moist and unstable environment with
multiple sufficient dynamic elements to help generate strong,
efficient rainfall producing thunderstorms exists across the
Carolinas this afternoon. GOES-E WV suite shows a convectively
enhanced shortwave/MCV at the base of the larger scale trough
currently in Western NC along the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians with a positive tilt trough/orientation back across
central GA. This wave is lifting northeastward behind the initial
convective line. This convective line remains progressive across
SW VA with an outflow/convergence boundary draped southward across north-central NC. A surface front intersects the coast near
Jacksonville, NC before reaching a well defined surface low
northeast of Florence, SC; while the upstream stationary front
remains well defined toward Augusta, GA. However, a differential
heating boundary exists across north-eastern NC (east of the
aforementioned outflow boundary), so while post-frontal, solid
insolation and Tds in the low to mid-70s remain allowing for an
expanding wedge of SBCAPEs across much of eastern and central NC
with tight gradients and rising to 2500-4000 J/kg from near
Charlotte to the SE NC coast. The last piece of forcing is
related to failed convection/outflow boundaries across central SC
lifting northward off the surface frontal boundary; though
sea-breeze may be a contributing factor though not established at
this time.

Being at the base of the long wave trough with elongated
shortwave/vorticity feature along the Appalachians will support
and expanding right entrance region mainly across NC throughout
the early afternoon providing further divergence and deep layer
effective bulk shear around 25-30kts, suggesting a bit more
overall organization and less pulse-like up/downdrafts further
north across the area. However, with overall TPW values of
2-2.25" pooled along the boundary and toward the Atlantic coast,
the modest surface to boundary layer directional convergence may
over-come the weaker overall speeds but allow for quick vertical
ascent and moisture loading. Quick conversion to 2-2.5"/hr rates
are initially possible near the boundary. However, with the
shear/outflow and multiple colliding boundary potential, slow
moving, merging clusters should evolve allowing for localized
enhanced residency and occasional up-tick in rates toward 3"/hr
locally. By 21-22z, there should be scattered areas of localized
2-5", with higher areal concentration generally north and east of
the surface low, near the front.

Hydrologically, the most prone areas/lowest FFG align with the
Fall-line from Augusta to Columbia to Charlotte to Raleigh-Durham
all of which have a solid potential of being intersected by
thunderstorms. Given hourly FFG values less than 2" and 3hr
values of 2-2.5" if directly under the slow moving cells will
likely result in incidents of rapid inundation/flash flooding.
While FFG values are much higher eastward into the Coastal Plains,
FFG value of 3-4"/3hrs still may be exceeded given HREF
probability of 3"/6hr remains above over 50-60% within 40km of any
given point in the MPD area of concern and further expands to over
80% if extending out to 00z. All in all, a wet afternoon/evening
will see incidents of flash flooding but they may be more locally
focused at least initially.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ETGedN8zjbOvNmTcDZE9PGlmhPw2h4zc9p77JvLDVB5jJ3O5FQgCZASfMQ4ZiX4PmRtyuuTpvDqkD5c_W12gWv75E8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36167792 35707692 34857645 34687682 34417736
34187768 33807790 33737871 33767967 33498070
33138221 33528310 34688278 35818112 36087928

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 21, 2026 18:55:48

AWUS01 KWNH 211855
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-220100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern Rockies

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211900Z - 220100Z

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms over the Southern Rockies will
generate ~1"/hr rainfall rates in the most intense cells. Some
mountain ranges were hit with heavy rainfall last night, making
soils more susceptible to flash flooding. Flash flooding is
possible this afternoon with burn scars most at risk.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite shows bubbling towering cumulus
over the Southern Rockies that are starting to produce
thunderstorms over the Sacramento, the Mogollon and Gila
Mountains, and the CO Rockies. The Southern Rockies are set to see
developing storms in an increasingly unstable environment that
will contain >500 J/kg SBCAPE and PWs >0.75". The region dealt
with rounds of storms yesterday, causing soil moisture percentiles
to exceed 80% per NASA SPoRT-LIS. There is a little less
instability than yesterday, however with recent rainfall causing
soils to be more sensitive than yesterday, localized flash
flooding could occur where rainfall rates approach 1"/hr within
slow moving storms.

As outflows emanate away from the first round of storms this
afternoon, additional storms may flare up in the early evening
hours. Flash flooding is possible again this afternoon, primarily
in areas with more saturated soils and the typical worrisome areas
(burn scars, steep terrain).

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_QsqiKdlAieq4uP2DfkqygiDos39ZNBKduYxP0NdrVqq6pmElRnPXk7eGDD_rMF-Le6VKwj-Szkx0GjzigmsmJGP0ys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38730653 38520552 38100513 37210505 36510520
35570545 34890535 33530532 32790540 32610594
32690621 33250620 33720623 34080687 33790733
32990760 32750822 32830866 33140895 33910898
34240895 34950890 35570871 35450808 35570753
36110736 36700753 36920787 37210815 37410839
37580862 37860875 38250873 38440862 38440818
38290740 38310677

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 21, 2026 19:31:48

AWUS01 KWNH 211931
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-220030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1104
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Central to southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211930Z - 220030Z

Summary...Recently fired convection across central Georgia could
produce flash flooding downstream through Southeast Georgia, where
favorable instability (2000-3000 ML CAPE) & moisture (1.5-2"
PWATs) are present.

Discussion...Convection initiated along a pre-frontal surface
trough oriented West to East across central Georgia. These storms
are expected to propagate southeastward into a substantially moist
and unstable environment. Precipitable water values between 1.5-2
inches in southeast Georgia/northern Florida combined with a mixed
layer CAPE environment of 2000-3500J/Kg will support rates in
excess of 2"/hr

Hi-res guidance suggest a scattered heavy rainfall footprint with
pockets of 1-2" rates and isolated 6 hour totals of 2-4" in parts
of southern Georgia. Flash flooding is possible, especially in
vulnerable areas from recent rainfall and poor drainage spots.

Kebede

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_3JQ6Q0r4zPscfAl44KVKzdULQ9jSQdd2OOlRlV-QLcuSjMNOIxW0M7NuZdUxS749Na9VMKvvlOpb9kUIGR03Xv8CQE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33638271 33628209 33378161 32748154 31888180
30878254 30368368 30458479 30838548 31428570
32038532 32658418 33128337

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 21, 2026 20:01:58

AWUS01 KWNH 212001
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-220200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1105
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212000Z - 220200Z

SUMMARY...Robust and slow moving thunderstorms will be capable of
producing torrential rainfall rates >3"/hr this afternoon and
evening. Flash flooding is possible, especially in poor drainage
areas and in more urbanized settings.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis showed a surface convergence
boundary located just north of I-10 with a cold front farther
north and working its way south. GOES East and Doppler Radar show
thunderstorms have formed in an environment that is primed for
producing torrential rainfall rates. RAP mesoanalysis shows PWs
are >2.0" and MLCAPE ranging between 2,500-4,000 J/kg. 18Z HRRR
area-averaged soundings within the at-risk area show warm cloud
layers nearly 14,000ft deep and RH levels within the 1000-500mb
layer are likely to top 80%.

Storms are forming within an environment that will see increasing
850-300mb mean winds out of the NW, directing any storms north of
I-10 towards the I-10 corridor this evening. Storm motions will be
slow at their onset, with MRMS instantaneous rates >3" in some of
these initial thunderstorms. Slower moving cells could generate

3"/hr rainfall rates before either dissipating or drifting south

towards the Gulf Coast. FFGs are fairly high in southern LA and
southern MS, with some areas in southern AL and the FL Panhandle
that have 1-hr FFGs <2.5". Given the higher FFGs, soils will be
able to handle most of the intense rates. That said, areas where
storms are slow to move could lead to flash flooding in poor
drainage areas and in more urbanized areas (ex: New Orleans/I-10
Corridor). Flash flooding is possible in these areas through the
early evening hours.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4nH2liy1Ah1AslCW-kxRzvpb5A6W9bkbgTy8TzmRj54VCqIppgTqzraHHnUvB8qRgbEoDOQVKVSv0T0oLTgjcB9v3Ik$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32649186 32629118 32479074 32289032 32198996
32108920 32138828 32178802 32288730 32188679
32088633 32018597 31888565 31608565 31318575
31168613 30988635 30728674 30458705 30218767
29758878 29678942 29668989 29719055 29929106
30419152 30859188 31359217 31839222 32389217

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 21, 2026 21:13:32

AWUS01 KWNH 212113
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1106
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern & eastern Nevada...western Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212110Z - 220300Z

Summary...Storms initiating along a pair of surface convergence
axes oriented north-south from the Desert Southwest into the
southern Great Basin respectively could produce flash flooding
within zones of favorable ambient moisture, instability and soil
moisture.

Discussion...Radar indicated convective cells initiating across
the state of Nevada will continue propagating northward within the
broad anticyclonic flow of an upper level ridge centered over the
Four Corners this evening. Shortwave impulses embedded within the
larger scale ridge will fuel storm initiation/development through
the Great Basin.

Cells initiating along a surface trough near Elko appear to also
be forced by shortwave energy aloft. Favorable precipitable water
values between 1-1.3" could be sufficient enough to wring out
enough rainfall to produce isolated instances of flash flooding
over relatively dry soils. A pool of 500-1500 J/Kg ML CAPE over
southern Nevada will continue to support the enhancement of cells
that initiate along the inverted surface trough running through
the region over the next few hours. PWs between 1.5-2" are more
than enough to generate flash flooding over the arid southern
Nevada environment.

CAMs suggest cells capable of producing rainfall rates of 0.5-1"hr
over eastern and southern parts of the state over the next few
hours.

Kebede

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8xiGg9JlpDnUJPrqJeK2nTunZ0g6MKJWXc_8qRf0JPorGAnMxTSrrufIR995ypZu26xo9Q2sMso2axJgmrXfCEvWqC4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40701429 40211358 39171369 38081369 36811361
36191432 36101536 36601613 37561660 38691672
39871625 40551548

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 21, 2026 21:41:36

AWUS01 KWNH 212141
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-220330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1107
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 212135Z - 220330Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding are likely this
afternoon and evening as thunderstorms produce rainfall rates up
to 3"/hr. Locally significant impacts are possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES East shows numerous thunderstorms from eastern
GA on north and east through the Carolinas and into southeast VA.
RAP mesoanalysis highlights a tropical air-mass over eastern NC
and central SC with PWs between 2.2-2.5" in place. Despite storms
having used up some of the available instability, MUCAPE continues
to show 1,000-2,000 J/kg from northern NC to the central NC, and
2,000-3,000 J/kg from central SC on east through southern and
eastern NC. HRRR area-averaged soundings show warm cloud layers up
to 14,000ft deep, indicating a fairly deep column of highly
efficient warm rain processes ongoing.

The frontal boundary responsible for initiating these storms over
the heart of the Carolinas, along with outflow boundaries nearby,
will continue to develop additional storms through the early
evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing 2-3"/hr
rainfall rates in areas that are seeing soils quickly saturate.
Storms will move ENE towards the Carolina coast and storms may
propagate far enough north to approach the VA Beach/Norfolk area
this evening. Additional flash flooding is likely with locally
significant flash flooding possible, especially in areas where
back-building and training thunderstorms occur.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-0uhGj688aOQIM9zjnbI47amsaSfuQBhFGKLVP2_SOlR76nSgl__ehxwNLIO78YaofB_vkOY84g-rqU-VswztSI4PLU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36947662 36937609 36847583 36667569 36137556
35607537 35207550 34887579 34547630 34407661
34377703 34327719 33957768 33377802 32797946
32548037 32568129 32658184 33048217 33318214
33568194 33858153 34478093 35038058 35638029
36107959 36167922 36427880 36557839 36737766

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 21, 2026 22:35:20

AWUS01 KWNH 212234
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-220400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1108
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
634 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern WI...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212230Z - 220400Z

SUMMARY...Potent thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front
will be capable of producing up to 2"/hr rainfall rates and
localized max rainfall totals of 2-3" through this evening. Some
training thunderstorm activity is possible, potentially leading to
areas of flash flooding this evening. Urban locations and poor
drainage spots are most at-risk.

DISCUSSION...22Z surface analysis showed a cold front racing south
and east through the heart of the Midwest being the culprit for
initiating scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Some
storms have formed out ahead of the front in far southern WI and
northern IL as well. RAP mesoanalysis indicates the air-mass ahead
of the front is highly unstable with MLCAPE approaching 3,000 J/kg
over Iowa's nose. PWs are above 1.5" from the IA/IL border on east
across northern IL. The 12Z DVN sounding showed a sounding
favorable for discrete cells with effective layer shear between
35-40 kts and effective SRH >100 m2/s2. The sounding also showed
the warm cloud layer was generally 10,000ft deep.

Between the shear, more shallow warm cloud layer, and drier
mid-level RH values, the soundings suggests the environment
overall should limit the areal extent of the flash flood
potential. Not only that, but mean cloud layer winds are 26 kts,
so most storms will be moving along. That said, storms firing
ahead of the cold front have moistened some of the soils in
southern WI and northern IL to the point where additional storms
that have produced between 1-1.5"/hr rainfall rates. 1-hr FFGs in
some of the more urban areas of southern WI and northern IL are as
low as 1.5". Latest 18Z HREF does show some low-to-moderate chance probabilities (20-40%) for 3-hr QPF surpassing 3-hr FFGs near the Chicago/Milwaukee metros.

With these storms also encroaching upon the more populous areas of
southern WI and northern IL, excessive rainfall rates approaching
2"/hr could lead to flash flooding in poor drainage areas within
more heavily urbanized environments. Given those factors,
progressive but potentially multiple rounds of storms could lead
to some cases of flash flooding this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Q4fg3DQJjQL5KUna1-7Wi3x0V-DyRkW3POtQtGREqnD-XkSooKRJjXWss6zF73nd1IsNKvQYntWlCgIb3pUlEFJFCY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43968929 43898887 43808864 43608831 43368800
42808769 42358764 41978761 41628771 41298823
41188900 41318984 41499039 41619076 41879125
42269135 42609111 42899066 43419019 43678993
43898968

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 27, 2026 04:04:50

AWUS01 KWNH 270404
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-271000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1128
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270402Z - 271000Z

Summary...High rainfall rates with 2 to 3+ inch hourly totals and
15 minute rainfall locally in excess of 1 inch are expected to
impact portions of the Lower MS Valley through 10Z. Peak rainfall
totals in excess of 4 inches will be possible on an isolated basis
along with possible flash flooding.

Discussion...GOES East infrared imagery at 0345Z showed pockets of
colder cloud tops from the western AR/LA border into central and
southern MS, associated with thunderstorms containing a general
motion toward the south to southeast. Preceding the thunderstorms,
regional radar imagery and surface observations from 03Z showed an
elongated southward propagating outflow boundary from northeastern
TX into far northern LA and central MS, where it met with a
westward propagating outflow across central/southern MS. The
environment ahead of the composite outflow was very moist with PWs
of 1.9 to 2.2 inches and MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg (via area
00Z soundings and 03Z SPC mesoanalysis data). Northern portions of
the region also contained added lift within the right-entrance
region of a strengthening 70-90 kt upper level jet max extending
eastward from the confluence of the MO and OH rivers, with
diffluent flow to the south across the lower MS Valley.

Expectations are for thunderstorms to continue advancing south to
southeast over the next 3-6 hours, containing hourly rainfall of 1
to 2 inches. However, the unstable and moist environment will
favor efficient rainfall production with 15 minute rainfall
locally over 1 inch and the potential for 2 to 3+ inch hourly
totals where cells locally merge and briefly train. While peak
residence time of heavy rain over any given location is not
expected to exceed much more than 60-90 minutes, the potential for
localized flash flooding will exist, especially across urban or
other locations of poor drainage. Due to a majority of the region
containing high FFG (many areas of 4+ inches in 3 hours), the
coverage of any flash flooding that occurs should remain localized.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9OU9Z9eL6sQ2tzwiK9u93x1xX6rpy6CYLcMy64VUu_amDHEHuEnLDhweUEoYxKpejnlnnzRetI_KlM0fGoD5istp4eE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33498992 33428916 32788881 32188880 31158868
30578960 30699235 31159353 32099399 33029386
33279343 33189208 33369122 33459040

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 27, 2026 09:31:10

AWUS01 KWNH 270930
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-271415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1129
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270928Z - 271415Z

Summary...Extreme rainfall rates containing localized hourly
totals over 3 inches and 15 minute rainfall in excess of 1 inch
will impact southern portions of the lower MS Valley and central
Gulf Coast over the next 3-5 hours. Peak additional rainfall
totals in excess of 4 inches will be possible on an isolated basis
along with possible flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery from 09Z showed a south to
southeastward advancing line of thunderstorms extending from
central LA into southwestern/south-central MS and a second,
smaller cluster advancing southwestward toward Lake Pontchartrain.
MRMS and guage observations have shown extreme rainfall
intensities over the past few hours with these storms, containing
hourly values of 3 to 5 inches across southern MS (~30 miles SW of
Jackson and just west of Gulfport). The environment remains quite
favorable for efficient rainfall production with PWs of 2.0 to 2.3
inches and MLCAPE of ~1500 to 2500 J/kg via 09Z SPC mesoanalysis
data.

Lift atop the leading edge of the outflow boundaries and
divergent/diffluent flow aloft will continue to support peak
hourly rainfall over 3 inches where brief cell training and
mergers occur. A composite outflow boundary is expected to advance
southward into the northern Gulf waters over the next 2-4 hours,
but some low level overrunning along the western edge of the
outflow could support lingering development over portions of
western LA beyond sunrise. The mostly likely locations for the
heaviest rainfall appear to be between roughly Lafayette and the
MS River Delta. It is here where localized rainfall totals in
excess of 4 inches will be possible. Due to the increasing
swamp/wetlands land cover with southward extent, the greatest
flash flood threat will be with any overlap of high rainfall rates
with urban or other locations of poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-qXP3uv-q3vo-Lko5T2XtKVlVn-DvXdyfia0-OMMhLvWrMc2vksU5N8B9EB6udrV9DT2fV3ZRwvg2P1JKmCml8C5JFg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31849018 31598909 30708850 29898846 28908914
28789083 29379329 29459394 30299430 31099392
31459251 31749129

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 27, 2026 10:14:16

AWUS01 KWNH 271013
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-271500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1130
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
612 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...northern Mid-Atlantic into southern NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271011Z - 271500Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash and urban flooding will be possible this
morning across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern
NY. Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected through about
15Z (11 AM EDT), but coverage of higher rates should remain
limited this morning. Increasing coverage of high rainfall rates
may increase into the afternoon hours, beyond the expiration of
this MPD.

DISCUSSION...10Z regional radar imagery showed scattered showers
and thunderstorms over far northern MD into eastern PA, northern
NJ and portions of Upstate NY. The cells were moving toward the
northeast at an average speed of 20-30 kt with some modest
upstream development back toward the southwest. These cells were
likely elevated, forming in response to southwesterly moisture
advection in the 850-700 mb layer and increasing PWs which have
risen about 0.3 to 0.5 inches over the past 6 hours (per GPS data
and blended TPW imagery). MUCAPE values were likely weak with the
10Z SPC mesoanalysis showing 100 to about 500 J/kg for most areas
from eastern PA into NJ and southern NY.

Through 15Z or so, expectations are for showers and thunderstorms
to continue redeveloping with individual cells advancing
northeastward, out ahead of an approaching mid to upper-level
trough over the Great Lakes region. The unidirectional
southwesterly flow within the LFC-EL layer could support some
brief training/repeating across the region with potential for
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. These higher rates should remain
limited in coverage this morning, but overlap with sensitive urban
areas could result in areas of flash flooding across sensitive
terrain and/or urban areas. The onset of daytime heating is
expected to deepen instability profiles later this morning which
may allow for intensification and of cells as they advance toward
portions of New England.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!43jyavmquvTPqW6MrY5FoN8w3KKyHtHZwGNz3a7K3pc3StSbMGVfWDI7etKFX-emBxfb5T6y_SQLEbE8h0wNqnv1jAI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42667414 42467357 42027322 41117337 40267395
39297542 39127652 39497722 40137713 41167675
42337533

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 27, 2026 16:06:24

AWUS01 KWNH 271605
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1131
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1204 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271603Z - 272100Z

SUMMARY...Flash and urban flooding instances should increase
through this afternoon across portions the northern Mid-Atlantic.
Peak hourly rainfall of 2 inches is expected to continue through
about 21Z (5 PM EDT) or so. Additional rounds of heavy rain are
likely this evening, particularly south of Philly.

DISCUSSION...16Z regional radar imagery depicts scattered
thunderstorms from Wilmington to the greater NYC metro. Northeast
motion with some backbuilding continues. Ample moisture exists
with PW around 1.5" north of NYC to 1.8" over Baltimore. An
instability gradient is also present with SBCAPE of 2500+ J/kg
south of Philly and around 1500 J/kg for the NYC metro east onto
Long Island.

Recent HRRR runs favor the southern end of this discussion where
the greater instability is present with good coverage of 2-4" from
the north side of Baltimore through Philly and over southern NJ.
This is reasonable given the strongest current development along
the I-95 corridor north of Wilmington that should expand both up
and downstream. The instability gradient extending east through
Nassau Co warrants expanding the discussion area more than half
way through Long Island.

Widespread urbanization locally reduces 1hr FFG to below 1.5", so
the heavy activity with some upwind propagation warrants a
continued threat for flash flooding through the afternoon hours.
Further activity is expected generally south of current activity
this evening, so anticipate subsequent discussions.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4D9K4YXENp0UTxz-nuGPhL9DVol0rHiJpF0jgWhRtUpp-Z2_XYSPgo0Ywa_gq8pTUKC7co1i0Rs7Ik9RDp8-UWT2SsE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41757352 41297323 40987293 40667274 40387363
39787410 39167471 39127652 39417702 39877668
40327553 40787486 41547418

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 27, 2026 21:01:38

AWUS01 KWNH 272101
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-280300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1132
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...Central and Northern Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 272100Z - 280300Z

SUMMARY...Continued risk of flash and urban flooding across the
Mid Atlantic through the evening hours. Rainfall rates between 1
to 2 in/hr are forecast for the strongest cells leading to local
totals between 2-4 inches in the most impacted areas. Greatest
threat from Central MD through the Philadelphia and New York City
metro areas.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite composite this afternoon shows a
gradual increase in convective coverage back towards the Blue
Ridge with scattered thunderstorms ongoing near PHI and NYC with a
secondary development near the bay breeze in Northeast MD. This
area from Baltimore to NYC will be subject to the greatest threat
for flash flooding through the evening thanks to a favorable
environment with ample instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) along
with PWAT anomalies approaching the 95th percentile over areas
east of the Blue Ridge (1.6-1.9" based on 12z RAOB's and the
latest 19z RAP mesoanalysis). These conditions are primed for
widespread convective coverage through the late-afternoon and
evening as increased mid-level forcing from a trough axis pivoting
through the Ohio Valley will provide sufficient ascent from a
broad diffluent structure directed into the Mid Atlantic. Multiple
boundaries, including an analyzed surface trough over the Blue
Ridge and the aforementioned bay breeze across Northeast MD will
be focal points for convective initiation with the latter likely
being an anchor point for some convection prior to the eventual
QLCS advancement which will push everything to the east. Bay
breeze will also provide better low-level meso enhancement that
could allow for one or two cells to really amplify over the
region, a noted point from a few of the CAMs during the early part
of the evening. This would likely be something to monitor over
Baltimore up through Harford and Cecil counties as a local maxima
as this threat evolves.

Elsewhere, significant rains have already occurred over the
Philadelphia metro into Southern NJ, as well as the NYC metro into
Northern NJ with widespread urban flooding ongoing as of the last
hour. Any additional rainfall will be a cause for concern across
the region leading to a likely flash flood prospect for any
additional thunderstorm impacts this evening. Latest REFS/HREF
probs for >2" are relatively elevated from Central MD up through
Eastern PA into NJ/NYC area, even as general storm motions remain
steady in the grand scheme with the eventual QLCS propagation.
Still, some locally backed flow ahead of the trough advancement
will still allow for some back-building threat across Northern MD
and points northeast leading to an emphasis in the forecast for
these areas being the more favorable zones for flash flooding this
evening. Localized totals of 2-4" are forecast, well above the FFG
thresholds in place over the region.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9d-ZBzfHGGNzAe_SjsyM249qEP6apla867-GmBDafaJpBv_jLknTWMIMeR0KPmLB_VuTn6Q4pjB2kKG5OzP_7NhchXE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41647606 41527495 41307424 41277405 41137377
40847366 40617374 40257390 39887420 39397472
39047546 38767598 38477658 38287697 37837768
37927844 38197882 38717888 38957854 39407796
39697761 40197730 41117689

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 28, 2026 01:06:44

AWUS01 KWNH 280106
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-280605-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1133
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...Central High Plains of Nebraska, Kansas, and Far
Eastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280105Z - 280605Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood opportunities along the path of a
progressive MCS moving due south over Nebraska into Kansas.
Rainfall rates between 1-2"/hr expected leading to localized flash
and small stream flooding along and south of I-80.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous complex of thunderstorms over the Nebraska
Sandhills will continue pushing south within a well-defined
theta_E ridge in place across the Central High Plains. A strong
mid-level vorticity max is currently aiding in keeping the complex
well established from an ascent perspective while the boundary
layer remains very buoyant with a large area of 2500-3500 J/kg
MUCAPE settled over west-central NE down into northwestern KS.
PWATs between 1.3-1.7" across the High Plains are within +1 to
+1.5 standard deviations of climatological norm which puts the
region from North Platte, NE to Goodland, KS firmly between the
75-90th for the period according to sounding climatology. This has
been supportive of rates between 1-2"/hr from the complex as it
migrates quickly south into the region.

Latest hi-res indicates the MCS should make headway through North
Platte proper with a continued forward propagation between 45-60
mph on its way south leading to areas along I-80 near North Platte
down through southwestern NE taking the brunt of the impact from
the complex. Limited observation network within the Sandhills
doesn't provide much in the way of future progs for what can be
expected, however the few obs that are available did manage to see
rainfall rates right around 2"/hr, matching the upper threshold of
the rates with the environment in place. Quick complex motion
should limit more substantial, widespread flash flood prospects,
however, the complex itself is quite aggressive with regards to
severe potential and heavy rain which have a history for some
localized flash and small stream flood potential in the path of
these types of thunderstorm complexes.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4S-Ip6CL1Q76tv0yE4QMFceIZJo7ocgwJmZmaTaTZSdGw44LWb-cJPrMx5FQnDthwnYsUcNdkarrn-wGc54VQ5dRXtI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41559957 41419896 40899876 39949871 39029894
38409965 38390102 38580195 39330221 39960227
40730229 41210205 41340155 41440110 41510024

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 28, 2026 03:28:32

AWUS01 KWNH 280328
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-280730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1134
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...northern Mid-Atlantic into Upstate NY and
southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280323Z - 280730Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will continue to be likely
for portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic region into the
Northeast for another couple of hours, although weakening is
expected after 06Z, which should end the flash flood threat for
most, if not all, locations.

DISCUSSION...0245Z radar imagery showed a slow moving cluster of
thunderstorms over eastern PA with peak MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches (highest over Lancaster County). A
second region of thunderstorms was located over the northern
Catskills into the Capital District of NY. While much of the
region has stabilized with respect to the boundary layer due to
earlier rainfall and nocturnal cooling, and cloud tops were
largely warming, pockets of elevated instability remained given
rich low level moisture and modest 700-580 mb lapse rates locally
greater than 6 C/km. SPC mesoanalysis data from 02Z showed about
500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE from northern MD into southern NY and
southern New England with a mixture of lower/higher CIN.

Low level southwesterly flow was helping to fuel continued
convective development to the north of a rain-cooled boundary
extending westward from southern NJ into southern PA, out ahead of
a larger scale ascent associated with an upper level trough axis
to the west. Additional shower/thunderstorm activity just south of
Harrisburg over the past 30 minutes was being aided by the
upstream environment containing 850 mb dewpoints of 15-16 C, and
southwesterly low level flow.

With high PWs of ~1.6 to 1.9 inches (00Z soundings from OKX, ALB
and IAD), and slow movement of heavy rain cores, hourly rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches, locally 2+ inches, will remain possible in the
short term. However, the larger scale environment will likely
continue to stabilize from continued surface cooling and
convective overturning, which should maintain a gradual weakening
trend over the next 2-4 hours. Until then, a few areas of flash
flooding will continue to be likely, but with activity expected to
diminish after 06Z. There is good model agreement from the latest
00Z HREF/REFS for this evolution, although the guidance might be
weakening storms too quickly.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8rN_2IjDnYP-kkYZ009gmWVgbVa4Hkoa4ZmQl_Go8B_Gg1mymi0TsTPqhnWNb9AjcftQk9VXwfbV1CwYaB9kEsMdLSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...CTP...GYX...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43097358 42897198 42337173 42057223 41617371
40877437 40127501 39777547 39467646 39757759
40437775 41487699 42577527 42947432

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 28, 2026 04:06:36

AWUS01 KWNH 280406
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-280835-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1135
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1205 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Areas affected...WV into central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280403Z - 280835Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible from portions
of WV into central VA over the next 3-5 hours, but with decreasing
potential with time. Hourly rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches,
locally higher, are expected.

DISCUSSION...0350Z radar and infrared satellite imagery showed
slow moving thunderstorms lingering across portions of central and
western VA, into WV across the Allegheny Mountains. Weakening
trends were observed overall across VA given increasing
stabilization occurring into the overnight hours, but localized
strengthening had occurred over WV and along the WV/VA border, to
the south of Lewisburg, WV. It appears the recent uptick was
related to an upper level jet streak seen on water vapor imagery,
extending from the KY/VA border into the western MD Panhandle,
interacting with lingering instability with little to no
inhibition.

Increased ascent tied to the jet streak and lingering instability
of 500 to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE (03Z SPC mesoanalysis and 00Z
soundings from IAD and RNK) should maintain a localized flash
flood concern due to slow moving thunderstorms capable of 1 to 2+
inch hourly rainfall totals. Lift out ahead of the base of an
upper trough moving across the OH Valley is expected to maintain
ascent downstream across the Appalachians into central VA, but
that will be competing with increasingly stability. Expectations
are for an isolated flash flood threat to linger for another 3-5
hours from WV into VA, with potential for renewed convective
development over WV, but a waning in intensity/coverage of
thunderstorms with time. The flash flood threat should largely end
by 08-09Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4jhygXMw_Mstz9ESLok8zQuusKjA-6MHI92I7jJKVStGpdJ8_hYVDW1YvmvhXLTBmPYpxWFSQ7lC50cajjLwo-O50gU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...JKL...LWX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39007998 38847899 38267911 38027860 38197782
37747777 37447805 37137868 37007930 36988022
37068129 37128173 37478212 38158203 38538091

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 28, 2026 17:12:28

AWUS01 KWNH 281712
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-282101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1136
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Areas affected...Eastern MD...Southern DE...Southern NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281709Z - 282101Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms with high rainfall rates will
continue to develop from southern New Jersey to the DelMarVa
Peninsula through the early to mid afternoon hours. Some instances
of flooding will be possible where persistent convection develops.

DISCUSSION...The latest regional Doppler radars are indicating a
rapid increase in slow moving heavy showers and storms, with the
greatest concentration located between Salisbury MD and Atlantic
City NJ. There is a slow moving frontal boundary that is
intercepting a moist and unstable airmass near the coast (PWs near
1.75 inches and surface based CAPE of about 3000 J/kg based on the
latest SPC mesoanalysis) that is fueling robust convection.
Back-building cells have developed that are serving to enhance
hourly rainfall rates approaching 2 inches per hour.

There are a variety of different QPF solutions with respect to the
latest CAM guidance, but the RRFS appears to have the most
realistic depiction based on ongoing radar trends. This model
suggests the potential for scattered QPF maxima on the order of 3
inches through 4 pm local time, and this may result in some
instances of flooding. Some of the heaviest cells are likely to be
offshore after 2 pm as the boundary slowly drifts east.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5bjRrMYrOnl-n6G0zZhGjxJLPdgTR3Slgnqz2Ob5yhN-3ykLmLjCowT4uXxuMgpj52NrAtmBLIHxRcw1g4uIBBBN0UM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39867459 39797416 39487409 38977451 38257507
37987541 38007582 38207601 38547599 39037562
39567510

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 28, 2026 19:06:38

AWUS01 KWNH 281906
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-290005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1137
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Areas affected...Southwest SC...Southern GA...Northeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281905Z - 290005Z

Summary...Additional thunderstorms containing rainfall rates
upwards of 3"/hr at times will support a risk of scattered flash
flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar mosaic this afternoon depicts a persistent area
of thunderstorms over portions of Southeast GA and Southwest SC,
containing peak rainfall rates over 2.5"/hr per MRMS. These cells
are occurring upstream of a weak circulation off the FL Panhandle,
and are generally aligned along a NE-SW oriented surface trough
and differential heating zone. The general alignment of this
boundary to 10 kts of steering flow is supporting some training
and merging of storms in the highlighted area. Thus far, the high
FFGs coupled with ongoing drought conditions in the area have been
able to absorb much of the rainfall, although a few instances of
FFG exceedance are noted over Coastal GA near Savannah.

However, going forward another round of storms is expected to
expand in coverage generally along these boundaries as the
circulation drifts inland while right entrance region ascent
strengthens to the north. With 2.3" PW values and pockets of
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE analyzed in the area by mesoanalysis, the
potential for hourly rainfall rates upwards of 3"/hr in this next
round will exist going forward this afternoon which could breach
the 2.5-3" 1 hr FFGs in the area. Recent runs of the HRRR
consistently shows 3-5" rainfall totals across the highlighted
area through 00z, which corroborates the 12z HREF showing a
similar rainfall footprint. This scenario would support a threat
of scattered flash flooding this afternoon, especially over
sensitive urbanized areas.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6FtG8ZFIKBr1c-p5MQDQM3yV8EZzTGm64GXzRuS9awhMbNkeqQSbyX2pxtqnk1driMG4KY6xb-2m0_bJedNZ-3oAuRU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32708070 32498021 32158033 31688076 30558110
29698121 29718170 30278247 30598376 31018460
31858402 32628139

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 11:52:12

AWUS01 KWNH 221151
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-221700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0819
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
709 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221108Z - 221700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will persist this morning
across central/eastern Virginia with 1-2"/hr rain rates. Repeating
and training of these cells could lead to additional flash
flooding, especially atop recently saturated soils.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows a narrow
line of convection oriented generally west to east across Virginia
from near Blacksburg through Richmond and over to Chincoteague.
This convection is persisting along a narrow 925mb confluence axis
noted via the RAP analysis, which may additionally be enhanced by
both residual outflow from Tusday's convection and a differential
heating boundary on the southern edge of an area of heavy rain
from overnight. Hourly rainfall within this morning activity has
been measured via MRMS to be generally 0.75 to 1.00 inches, with
locally higher embedded amounts.

The environment across Virginia remains favorable for heavy rain
this morning. PWs as measured via recent GPS observations are as
high as 2.1 inches in southeast VA, above the 90th percentile for
the date, as moisture pools south of a slowly advancing cold front
positioned back across the OH/TN Valleys. Additionally, a corridor
of MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg exists along and south of this
confluence boundary to support lift as it gets drawn northward
into the convection. Although mean 0-6km winds are quick at around
40 kts, Corfidi vectors aligned to the mean flow and this
confluence boundary suggest a prolonged period of
training/repeating cells, which could produce an additional 2-3"
of rainfall with locally higher amounts into the aftn.

Rainfall last night was impressive from central VA through the
Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, and over to the Eastern Shore
where 2 to as much as 7 inches of rainfall fell. This has
pre-saturated the soils leading to 0-10cm RSM from NASA SpoRT to
be as much as 80-90%, and compromised FFG to just 1.5"/3hrs. While
the heaviest rain may occur just south of this axis (although the
activity is a bit north of most guidance at this time), any
repeating or training of these heavy rates could lead to rapid
runoff and instances of flash flooding. The most likely impacts
this morning will be across urban areas and these more sensitive
soils, but by this aftn additional development is likely which
could necessitate additional MPDs and more widespread flash flood
potential.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8RDF8JlsY1nlmFQVfjiByr3ae6Fwpl_CmKTy6O6fV7hQWhbhC_dJJt3FvTiCuxtMiL2i6979mDmIYoXwKip33_IDHLA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37957555 37777509 37207478 36837502 36507624
36367772 36577918 36917962 37357922 37717745

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 13:50:54

AWUS01 KWNH 221350
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-221800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0820
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
948 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Tennessee, western North Carolina, southwest
Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221348Z - 221800Z

Summary...Training showers and thunderstorms will continue a flash
flood risk into the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2+"/hr could
cause an additional 2-4" of rainfall atop vulnerable soils and
terrain.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows a narrow
line of thunderstorms extending SW to NE across much of Tennessee
and into western Virginia. This activity is bubbling along a 925mb
convergence axis, into which moisture confluence is intensifying
on slowly veering 850mb inflow around a ridge to the east. This
inflow is additionally drawing elevated PWs (measured via GPS of
1.7 to 2.0 inches, and via the BMX 12Z U/A sounding above the 90th climatological percentile) into a narrow corridor of
already-elevated MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This has resulted in
recent MRMS hourly rainfall as much as 2 inches northeast of
Knoxville, TN.

There continues to be some uncertainty as to the convective
evolution through the aftn, but at least locally excessive rain is
likely. The CAMs are generally too far north with the current
activity, but they suggest convection will gradually sink south
through the day as a slow moving cold front drops into the area.
While the exact evolution (and thus placement of heaviest
rainfall) is still uncertain, there is high confidence that
training of echoes containing rainfall rates of at least 1-2"/hr
(locally higher according to the 15-min HRRR) will persist into
the afternoon. The HREF and REFS exceedance probabilities for 3
inches in the next 6 hours are 15-30% in far northeast TN, but
locally higher rainfall is likely, and the ECMWF EFI also has a
focus for highest probability (>0.95) and SoT above +2 across far
northeast TN, indicating strong agreement across multiple ensemble
systems.

This area is generally sensitive to heavy rain rates due to the
natural vulnerability of the terrain in the Appalachians, as well
as compromised FFG as low as 0.5-1.5"/3hrs due to recent heavy
rainfall. While the threat will be greatest where heavy rain falls
across these more vulnerable areas, any training of 2"/hr rain
rates into the afternoon could result in flash flooding instances.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4cS8lb7Guzq6pxIAGnNK8F03DhN_vyOsoad_goR1ctxdN0-TZIfCeAOO9Xhgi-Qib9RHfCrSwThduFQ8bm6TnbBODgM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37358114 37297990 37017886 36687901 36237978
35898079 35588189 35358288 35148393 35038506
35088602 35238681 35378741 35848740 36078682
37258243

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 16:58:34

AWUS01 KWNH 221658
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0821
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1257 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee, Southern Virginia, Northern
North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221656Z - 222200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to train from SW
to NE from eastern TN through eastern VA this afternoon. Rainfall
rates that at times may exceed 2"/hr could create an additional
2-4" of rain. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon continues to
depict a narrow corridor of convection aligned SW to NE from near
Nashville, TN through The Tidewater Region of VA. This activity is
blossoming and persisting along a 925mb convergence axis leading
to locally enhanced ascent, with additional lift provided via
modest height falls downstream of a broad mid-level trough, and a
weak vorticity impulse rotating northeast near the TN/KY border.
This deep layer lift is occurring within impressive thermodynamics
reflected by SBCAPE that has climbed to 1500-2000 J/kg and
collocated PWs between 1.8 and 2.2 inches. Notably, these PWs
continue to increase (as reflected by trends from the special 06Z
soundings) due to impressive sfc-700mb LPW advection noted in ALPW
fields, leading to CIRA experimental LPW that is above the 95th
percentile into parts of AL/GA/TN.

Several FFWs are already in effect for eastern TN into southern
VA, and it is expected that the convection driving this rainfall
will expand through the aftn, with intensification also possible.
Forcing for ascent will remain in place across the region, which
will interact with increasingly robust thermodynamics as moisture
streaming northward at least peripherally associated with T.S.
Bertha comes into the area. This is reflected by a pronounced
925mb theta-e ridge that will push into the TN VLY, aided by
subtly intensifying 850mb winds within the warm sector ahead of an
approaching cold front. As this occurs, the 850mb winds and mean
0-6km winds will become aligned to each other and the approaching
front, and roughly equal in magnitude, leading to pronounced
training of cells into the evening. With hourly rainfall progged
by both HREF and REFS to have a chance (10-20%) to exceed 2"/hr,
and HRRR 15-min rainfall reaching as high as 0.75" (brief 3"/hr
rates), this could result in stripes of 2-4" of rain with locally
higher amounts.

The CAMs continue to struggle with the latitudinal advance
southward of convection this aftn, and it appears probable that
this convergence band will move more slowly southward than the
guidance indicates. This will prolong the training potential over
vulnerable terrain, as well as primed soils from morning heavy
rain, leading to the increased flash flood risk during the next
several hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VtwNV3MzWtBSO_Nv3DofJQzErsIlvKSorbS2hh9JhQwvo-0A0e_eCNFhqzWwPLGkzGdxiu8jJmqAtpp24vCOaquEko$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...OHX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37887632 37817574 37477549 37017544 36337585
36117720 35737998 35428328 35478449 35648483
36038491 36588434 37108265 37567998 37687862

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 17:45:40

AWUS01 KWNH 221745
FFGMPD
COZ000-UTZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0822
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
144 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Utah and Western Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221743Z - 222300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread across
Utah and western Colorado this afternoon. Hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches is possible, which through slow storm motions may cause
more than 3 inches of rain in isolated locations. Flash flooding
is likely, especially within sensitive terrain or across burn
scars.

Discussion...An extremely anomalous airmass is in place across the
Four Corners this morning, reflected by CIRA LPWs that are above
the 95th, and even 99th, percentiles between 700-300 mb. This is
additionally measured via GPS PWs that are above 1.25 inches as
far north as Montana, suggesting a massive plume of near-record
PWs across the Intermountain West. Although this moisture has
resulted in expansive cloud cover so far this morning, some breaks
have begun to develop, leading to rapid destabilization reflected
by SBCAPE that has exceeded 500-1000 J/kg from southeast UT
through much of western CO. Within this environment, Cu and TCu
have begun to develop across the higher terrain of NM/UT/AZ
suggesting the heavy rainfall threat is beginning to develop.

As the airmass becomes increasingly favorable for convection
during the next few hours, ascent will also maximize in response
to a potent shortwave/MCV clearly evident on the GOES-E WV imagery
lifting into southern UT. This feature will continue to drift
slowly N/NE around the periphery of the mid-level ridge to the
east, leading to downstream divergence and locally enhanced height
falls to produce deep layer lift. Additionally, differential
heating boundaries due to terrain and morning cloud cover will
serve as foci for convective development, and it is likely that
thunderstorm coverage will become widespread in the next few
hours. This is reflected by the high-res CAMs simulated
reflectivity, as well as the UA WRF, and the HREF, REFS, and
15-min HRRR all indicate 1-2"/hr rain rates will be common this
aftn.

A lack of bulk shear will generally keep storms disorganized and
pulse, although small clusters could develop where outflows/storm
mergers occur or along any focused convergent boundaries. While
this should be the exception rather than the rule, slow 0-6km mean
winds of just 5-10 kts aligned with the propagation vectors
indicate a repeating thunderstorm setup capable of producing more
than 3" of rainfall in some locations. 7-day rainfall across this
region has been plentiful, more than 400% of normal in many areas,
further compromising the FFG across an already vulnerable region.
This suggests that any heavy rain rates will quickly result in
runoff leading to instances of flash flooding, with the most
susceptible areas being within steep terrain or across burn scars.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6EuCz1hIuLOhslro2jegIFxnOOpEsQuy835BKxAmW0m86IE3iWf_i4hEX18mmlj-mUUuRt9ufXs49qjNgT7I2qU08rA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40971022 40960878 40600678 39520624 38500636
37630732 37510819 37720885 38030954 38041020
37831103 37441155 37031232 37011287 37241335
37591358 38161363 38891342 39941265 40601159

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 19:25:56

AWUS01 KWNH 221925
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-230100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0823
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Central Virginia northeast through the DelMarVa
Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221922Z - 230100Z

Summary...Training showers and thunderstorms with 1-2"/hr rain
rates will move across northern VA and southern MD through the
evening. Total rainfall of 2-3" is likely, with locally higher
amounts possible, and this could result in instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this aftn shows rapidly
expanding thunderstorms aligned west to east from central VA
towards coastal DE. This activity is blossoming ahead of a cold
front analyzed by WPC to be approaching slowly from the NW, and
along a pronounced 925mb speed convergence axis (possibly
influenced by differential heating due to morning cloud cover
finally eroding) to produce local ascent. Ahead of this front,
925mb-850mb inflow is slowly intensifying towards 25-30 kts,
drawing anomalous moisture northeast as reflected by near-record
925mb dew points and PWs above the 90th climatological percentile.
Overlapping this moisture, MLCAPE has surged to 1000-1500 J/kg,
with a sharp gradient to the north likely acting as the northern
edge of thunderstorm activity through the evening.

The CAMs have been a bit slow to develop activity this aftn, with
current convection outpacing the progs at 19Z. However, the
guidance does suggest that storms will continue to increase in
coverage through the next several hours in a narrow corridor,
which is supported by the ingredients becoming even more robust
immediately ahead of the cold front. MRMS hourly rainfall within
this fresh convection has only been as high as 0.75" so far, but
all 3 ensembles (REFS, HREF, and WoFS) suggest the probability for
1"/hr rainfall increasing to 40-70% by this evening. These high
probabilities occur concurrently with increasing bulk shear to
30-40 kts and aligned propagation vectors/mean 0-6km winds,
suggesting the likelihood of storms backbuilding into the greater
instability, organizing into clusters/isolated supercells, and
then training to the east. Where storms repeat/train, rainfall of
2-3" is likely, with isolated higher amounts possible (10-20%
chance for 5").

This region has received heavy rainfall in the past 24 hrs
(stripes of MRMS 24-hr rainfall 2-4" with locally higher amounts)
which has compromised FFG to as low as 1.5-2.0"/3hrs. Low FFG also
exists within more developed/urban areas. So, despite low FFG
exceedance probabilities of just 10-20%, at least an isolated
flash flood risk appears to be developing through this evening,
especially where the most prolonged training occurs over any
recently saturated soils.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8oRBoUw5J7V1FwcBkJa8EqEdQbk1bSmN2DNYovirFnS3GMGbttIFcQOJpx9C1S2ZpGLBmK7bcOCTKFKVYZznRvti1pk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39197472 38867456 38367477 37917519 37557566
37317635 37157713 37027797 37027874 36967954
37077998 37597987 37947960 38277902 38557810
38647731 38807656 38987561 39117508

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 19:31:50

AWUS01 KWNH 221931
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-230130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0824
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern ID...Southwest
MT...Western WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221930Z - 230130Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates will support a threat for isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding this afternoon.

DISCUSSION....The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with the LightningCast product shows convective initiation taking
place across areas of central and eastern ID through southwest MT
and western WY. Much of the activity is terrain-focused including
portions of the Sawtooth Range, Absaroka Range, and adjacent Wind
River Range. The convection is focusing with the aid of an
approaching shortwave impulse over southern ID which is combining
with the diurnal heating cycle and a substantial pool of monsoonal
moisture.

PWs across much of the Intermountain West are very high even for
the middle to latter part of July, with values of 1.1 to 1.3
inches. These are exceeding the 95th percentile of climatology and
will be favoring convection with very efficient processes for
elevated rainfall rates. Elevated warm cloud depth layers/high WBZ
heights are in place, and the latest OSPO ALPW data shows
substantial vertical depth of moisture with high PWs noted in the
500/300 mb layer.

SBCAPE values have risen to 1000 to 1500+ J/kg and given the
influence of terrain, there should be substantial differential
heating boundaries that set up and facilitate additional
convective initiation going through the afternoon hours. While the
convection should be heavily influenced by orographics, some
activity will be capable of moving off the terrain into some of
the lower elevations.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected with some of
these storms given slow cell-motions and the level of moisture
that is in place. Some persistence of these cells near the high
terrain may support some spotty 2 to 4 inch totals. Some of the
early guidance from the experimental WoFS and also the RRFS
support these rainfall rates/totals.

Some isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible around areas of rugged and sensitive terrain, and this
will include any burn scar areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!55ap8FHMISACnxRODYZemUWfA_MQXUKvCRtsGnLNFbCSuMrRyoL6HSWHFHE_j0LVHtIFtTBLAwZ5TXn5PzC6NEGRle4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...BYZ...MSO...PIH...RIW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46371106 46240988 45450899 43860854 42350921
42041036 42261101 43361180 43501323 43171460
43791560 44961519 45781388 46241225

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 20:02:24

AWUS01 KWNH 222002
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0825
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Northeast AZ...Western and Northern NM...Central
and Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222000Z - 230200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow-moving areas of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms with high rainfall rates will foster a threat for
some areas of flash flooding going into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Deep monsoonal moisture is well entrenched across the Intermountain West and the broader Four Corners region as moisture
lifts north around the western periphery of the deep layer
subtropical ridge over the southern Plains. GOES-W visible
satellite imagery suggests some hints of a weak mid-level vort
center over northwest NM which is lifting northward toward
southwest CO.

This energy coupled with the strong diurnal heating cycle along
with increasingly focused differential heating boundaries and
moist upslope flow over the terrain should drive an increase in
the coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms going through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Already the latest radar
imagery shows scattered areas of convection impacting areas of
northeast AZ through northwest NM and across much of the central
CO high country.

SBCAPE values have already increased to 1000 to 2000+ J/kg, and
PWs across the region are locally as high as 2 to 2.5 standard
deviations above normal. Areas of northeast AZ and western NM are
seeing the greater concentrations of this monsoonal moisture which
is also noted in OSPO ALPW data.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with
the convection, and some of the hires CAMs suggest a threat over
the next several hours for some cell-training which may foster
some of these rainfall totals edging up into the 2 to 4 inch range
going through early this evening. This will promote concerns for
flash flooding. Any of the local burn scar locations, slot canyons
and dry wash locations will as always be most vulnerable to the
these heavier rainfall rates and potential for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!93sGSkKtwCA_BG8d9z0fqYSR3xe9rKczzFkF_36YgQrJ0UxtoV8i8l3VR02uR3lOSOBztdpZakCah_7WW_g1WTEKjWA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40840518 39210438 38030425 37070440 35850481
34510581 34110729 34050853 34290973 35061006
36010971 36830847 37590724 38130664 38790621
39970629 40640611

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 22:57:16

AWUS01 KWNH 222257
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-230455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0826
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TN...Western and Central
NC...South-Central to Southeast VA...Far Southern and Eastern MD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222255Z - 230455Z

SUMMARY...Additional clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
are expected this evening and the early part of the overnight
period. High rainfall rates and locally sensitive antecedent
conditions will favor a threat for additional areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
broken axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of
eastern TN, western and central NC, and up into south-central to
southeast VA. A separate band of convection is noted farther north
over portions of the lower Delmarva that recently exited southern
MD. The convection is aligned in a couple of semi-linear bands
near and south of a cold front that is settling gradually down
through the Mid-Atlantic region.

Convergent low-level flow south of the front coupled with deep
tropical moisture and a moderately unstable airmass will continue
to support areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms going though
the evening hours. MLCAPE values as high as 1000 to 1500 J/kg and
PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches are in place, and this will help support
rainfall rates easily into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range.

Relatively divergent flow aloft around the base of the Great
Lakes/OH Valley upper trough will tend to favor convection
lingering into the early part of the overnight period, and the
low-level flow should remain conducive for multiple bands of
convection to impact especially western and central NC through
southeast VA going through midnight.

The latest hires CAMs including recent experimental WoFS runs
suggest additional rainfall totals locally of 2 to 4 inches, with
perhaps an isolated instance of heavier amounts as suggested by
the 90th percentile output of the 22Z WoFS run.

Generally, the additional rains over the next several hours will
maintain a threat for some areas of flash flooding which will
include not only the more sensitive urban areas, but also some
locations that have moist antecedent conditions.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!87cxLQVJWqILx2McowVSeXbHK6Qg1cEOqXGQtJ1CCsEAaHoW6co9TR16YJKXNrhb-8d1LY3vlsMPphrWDOgVojGfNUY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MHX...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38537646 38347495 37397490 36457561 35887703
35447933 35228135 35108339 35228449 35788476
36228440 36738316 37068165 37237999 37687881
38237751

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 23:22:16

AWUS01 KWNH 222322
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-230520-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0827
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Intermountain West

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222320Z - 230520Z

SUMMARY...Broken areas of slow-moving monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms with high rainfall rates will continue well into the
evening hours across the Intermountain West, including large areas
of Utah, western Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additional areas
of flash flooding are expected, and locally significant impacts
cannot be ruled out for some of the more sensitive slot canyon and
sloped terrain areas.

DISCUSSION...Deep monsoonal moisture is well entrenched across the Intermountain West as moisture continues to lift north around the
western periphery of the deep layer subtropical ridge over the
southern Plains. GOES-W visible satellite imagery along with radar
shows broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms with
generally slow cell-motions.

Multiple MCVs are embedded within the deeper layer flow across the Intermountain West, and this energy coupled with MLCAPE values of
1000 to 1500 J/kg and PWs exceeding the 95th percentile of
climatology will continue to favor convection this evening with
high rainfall rates that will easily reach 1.5 to 2+ inches/hour.
Deep moisture as seen in OSPO ALPW data will be key to
facilitating these high rates, and there will be the added
contribution of upslope flow over the higher terrain.

The slow cell-motions and orographic focus for some of these heavy
showers and thunderstorms may drive some additional rainfall
totals through this evening of 2 to 3+ inches. These additional
rains are supported generally by the overall consensus of hires
CAMs, including the latest experimental WoFS.

These additional rains on top of earlier rains will locally
promote some enhanced runoff concerns and channeling of water away
from areas of steep terrain and especially through some of the
slot canyon locations. Additional flash flooding is expected
through this evening, and locally significant impacts will be
possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Itau4sPoW7t3NJ4EAN_Xa1tLaPJi3iwTUPh5l5CZqhwvtGxGFYeDPVn7mvdh2IRGY8UXvRzU5Fu5UBjHyf9JwoGRQE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PUB...RIW...SLC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42930877 42870708 42000590 40820566 39400636
37680824 36841054 36691231 37121362 37861411
38521417 39131382 40311210 41001115 42461017

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 23, 2026 01:49:58

AWUS01 KWNH 230149
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-230630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0828
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
948 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Northeast AZ...Northwest NM...Southwest to
Central CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230148Z - 230630Z

SUMMARY...Areas of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
continue for at least a few more hours across the Four Corners
region. Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
areas of cold-topped monsoonal convection persisting across
portions of northeast AZ, northwest NM and into southwest and
central CO. The airmass remains anomalously moist across the
region with high PWs locally on the order of 2 to 2.5 standard
deviations above normal. However, gradually the instability pool
across the region is being exhausted through the convective
overturning process and loss of daytime heating.

MLCAPE values are still locally upwards of 1000 J/kg, and this
coupled with the high PWs will still favor pockets of convection
capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour. At
least for a few more hours, this thermodynamic environment coupled
with some forcing associated with a mid-level shortwave and
embedded vorts across eastern UT and western CO should maintain a
broader convective threat. Gradually the coverage and the rainfall
rates should tend to decrease though as the aforementioned
instability pool wanes.

Expect some additional localized rainfall amounts of 2+ inches to
be possible going through the remainder of the evening. These
additional rains may produce some additional areas of flash
flooding, with the normally dry washes and any burn scar locations
most at risk for seeing these impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4HaJ8_s1i0IoOm93XM-BiLzWNkrBjO0SVXt9YMa8WhlhdgU7lLGvieddjRm0eIsfiIwlCrhB6Nx88zWPam6KQ8N-tCw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39340609 39310482 38590408 37150436 36190555
35370691 34710783 34020884 33920994 34681087
36061064 37110940 37610837 38660705

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 23, 2026 05:34:48

AWUS01 KWNH 230534
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-231133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0829
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
133 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Lower Mid-Atlantic...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230533Z - 231133Z

Summary...The threat of flash flooding is expected to increase
tonight as training thunderstorms regenerate over the next few
hours.

Discussion...Radar mosaic across the Lower Mid-Atlantic and
Southern Appalachians depicts an axis of showers and low topped
thunderstorms ahead of a slow moving cold front pressing into the
area. Over the last 6 hours, persistent cell training has resulted
in localized 3-4" rainfall swaths and flash flooding atop areas
with sensitive antecedent soil conditions.

Over the next 2-3 hours, the latest CAMS and experimental WoFS
runs are in good agreement for showers and thunderstorms to
increase in coverage as increasing 925-850 mb moisture transport
removes lingering inhibition ahead of the front. Storms will
continue to tap into a very favorable environment for efficient
rainfall production (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, PW over 2") to support
rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr in the most robust updrafts. Storm
motions will remain on the quick side owing to 30-35 kts of
steering flow, although the favorable orientation to the slow
moving front will favor cell training through the overnight hours.
Over the next 6 hours, the CAMS and recent WoFS runs suggest 3-4"
can be expected in main area of training. This will likely result
in additional flash flooding owing to increasingly sensitive
antecedent conditions across the area. Significant flash flooding
remains possible should the heaviest rainfall overlap with urban
zones or areas impacted by rainfall yesterday.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!78enWBsgbgDSQHvQ9DFAlrAQxYDtWnDBTBZ5eG3mCGXTyjwkyPUuv1It-HkMHYPNyZSqWE1UK-FDw-qft8N0_XeXGA8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...FFC...GSP...HUN...MHX...MRX...OHX...RAH...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37287678 37097563 36337543 35917647 35567935
35278201 35068419 34938564 35558572 36088445
36388258 36837921

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 23, 2026 11:49:40

AWUS01 KWNH 231149
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-231747-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0830
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
747 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TN into NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231147Z - 231747Z

Summary...A slowly southward advancing cold front will support an
isolated to scattered flash flood risk this morning across eastern
TN into NC. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr with localized 2-3" totals
are expected through the morning hours.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery shows showers and
thunderstorms persisting along a cold front slowly dropping
southward from eastern Tennessee into North Carolina. The
environment is characterized by deep moisture, with precipitable
water values generally hovering between 2.0 and 2.3 inches. Deep
layer flow is aligned nearly parallel to the orientation of the
boundary, creating a favorable setup for cell training and
repeating rounds of heavy rainfall.

However, convective intensity is currently being impacted by a
thermodynamic contrast across the front and modest low to mid
level moisture convergence. While robust MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg
remains in place ahead of the boundary, instability drops to
500?1000 J/kg directly along and behind the front, where the
majority of current convective activity is anchored. This reduced
instability along the boundary is generally preventing updrafts
from becoming overly deep or intense. High resolution ensemble
guidance aligns well with these observed trends; both the HREF and
REFS depict neighborhood probabilities of 1"/hr rainfall rates
over 50%, while probabilities for rates exceeding 2"/hr generally
remain under 10%.

Antecedent conditions vary across the region. The northern edge of
the rain shield is currently traversing areas with more saturated
soils; however, the rain is gradually shifting southward into
drier areas featuring higher FFG thresholds. Hourly rainfall rates
of 1 to 2" are expected in spots, leading to 6 hour localized
accumulations peaking in the 2 to 3" range. Nevertheless, a few
stronger cells could briefly train over the same area and locally
produce totals exceeding 2" in an hour. One such training axis is
currently occurring across upslope areas of far southeast TN.
Additional flash flooding through the morning hours should
generally remain isolated in nature, but will remain possible
where rain overlaps more saturated areas and where cell training
pushes hourly rainfall over 2".

By this afternoon, the cold front will continue pushing across
southern and eastern North Carolina into northern South Carolina.
As convection moves further south and taps into the diurnally
destabilizing airmass ahead of the front, storm intensity and
rainfall rates are expected to increase.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7GWXEoGWHIL5y-ndxJm8OoxjQi1-xgvYqxoZzIE60BZCOBeSor61CMgL3sqD57ndeHT-Rw8gf7K_XFsRaw3mZrHKkds$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...FFC...GSP...HUN...ILM...MHX...MRX...
RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 36457707 36287559 35267542 34757689 34727998
35028211 34738493 34858533 34958559 35108566
35588491 36008280 36167988

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 23, 2026 17:26:00

AWUS01 KWNH 231725
FFGMPD
TXZ000-232324-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0831
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Central TX Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231724Z - 232324Z

Summary...Convection associated with a mid-level circulation and
convergence well south-southwest of Tropical Storm Bertha will
move ashore along the central Texas coast. While fast storm
motions and high Flash Flood Guidance will limit widespread
flooding, localized hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches could lead to
isolated rate driven flash flood impacts along coastal areas.

Discussion...Regional radar and satellite imagery show a compact
convective cluster associated with a mid-level circulation well
south-southwest of Tropical Storm Bertha tracking toward the
central Texas coast. MRMS rainfall estimates offshore have
indicated intense rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour within
this feature. Recent observational trends suggest this convection
is undergoing some weakening trend as it approaches the coastline.

Despite this weakening, the thermodynamic environment moving
ashore is extremely moist, featuring precipitable water values
near 2.9 inches. Even in a somewhat diminished state, this deep
tropical moisture profile and ambient instability should be
sufficient to support isolated intense hourly rainfall of 2 to 3
inches as convective cores push inland, with total rainfall
locally exceeding 3 inches.

Fortunately, a couple of factors will act to limit the overall
severity and spatial extent of the flood threat. First, individual
cell motions are expected to remain relatively quick, preventing
prolonged residence times over any single location. Second, FFG
thresholds across the central Texas coast are quite high,
generally around 3 to 4 inches in an hour.

Consequently, the expected peak rainfall rates should primarily
approach or only locally exceed FFG thresholds. While widespread
flash flooding is not anticipated, high rate driven, localized
flash flood impacts, particularly in low-lying, coastal, or
poor-drainage areas, will be possible as this activity pushes
onshore.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8YErWsLYFZn6GOPF5rWY-yosafSHmTROPyz6r6eBesOTlEOgb1s65fXn7UJawXHfk2ujBJRztHfTA00fQgjtX2Z0cpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29099621 28909565 28569567 28169626 27839685
27869728 27959755 28269759 28639716 28979662

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 23, 2026 18:39:06

AWUS01 KWNH 231838
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-240030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0832
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern UT...Western and Central
CO...Western and Northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231837Z - 240030Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be
expected once again today across the central Rockies and adjacent
areas of the Intermountain West. Isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating along with anomalous monsoonal
moisture across the central Rockies and adjacent areas of the
Intermountain West will once again promote at least scattered
areas of showers and thunderstorms today that will be capable of
locally high rainfall rates. Already there are pockets of
convective initiation occurring across central and western CO on
down through northern and western NM. GOES-W based LightningCast
data shows areas of central and eastern UT will also be seeing
convective initiation soon.

A modest shortwave trough/mid-level weakness is noted in satellite
imagery across western CO, with some north/south extension of this
energy. This will combine with the diurnal heating cycle to
promote an expansion of these scattered areas of monsoonal
convection over the next several hours. Differential heating
boundaries and orographic ascent over areas of higher terrain will
also facilitate upscale convective evolution.

SBCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are already in place, with PWs
running as much as 2 to 3+ standard deviations above normal. This
combined with orographics should again help drive some rainfall
rates of 1 to 2+ inches/hour. Some spotty 2 to 3+ inch totals
cannot be ruled out, and there is support for this from some of
the hires models CAMs including the NAM Conest and the RRFS.

Overall, the convective footprint should not be as widespread
today as compared to yesterday since the level of forcing is not
quite as strong, but there will be at least scattered coverage of
convection that should drive concerns for isolated to scattered
areas of flash flooding. Any burn scar locations along with the
more sensitive slot canyons and normally dry washes will be at
greatest risk for seeing flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!51gztriOC-WpU7FoqHOQNeaZCH12brV_oFLyBdsQwTMaTLsk1jLAv4Js9upsPGG6l3hQk_JDPNbGOMw-nFoc0VKK4Pc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...
TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41110688 41090548 40360499 38900490 37500473
36050482 34060615 33390711 33320822 33560902
34230932 35000921 36030932 36830995 37171101
37091275 37761295 38791186 39691147 40501081
40970953 40820861 40900780

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 23, 2026 22:46:16

AWUS01 KWNH 232245
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-240430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0833
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
644 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Northern GA...Central and Upstate SC...Southern
NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232244Z - 240430Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms this
evening with heavy rainfall rates will pose concerns for areas of
flash flooding, including potential for some urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
some expanding and cooling convective tops along a slow-moving
cold front that is draped generally west to east from northern GA
eastward across northern SC and into southeast NC. Surface
observations more recently suggest a couple of weak waves of low
pressure riding along the front with one in northern GA and one in
northeast SC.

MLCAPE values across the region in proximity of the front are on
the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, with PWs that are quite high and
indicative of a deep tropical airmass with values of 2.0 to 2.25
inches. Some areas of southeast NC in fact have PWs that are
locally closer to 2.5 inches.

This deeply unstable and moist environment has been favoring
convection more recently with the cooling convective tops that is
capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour. Much of the activity is
being aided by moderate moisture convergence along the front
itself along with some modest shear that is helping to sustain
some of the broken clusters of convection that have formed. Some
localized areas of upslope flow into parts of the southern
Appalachians is also noted as a player with the convection and
especially over southwest NC.

Some of the recent CAMs suggest some uptick in convective coverage
this evening with some localized rainfall totals by midnight of 3
to 4+ inches which will be aided by some potential for occasional
instances of cell-training. There is some spread in the guidance
with where the heavier rainfall totals should tend to focus, but
generally areas of northwest/upstate SC eastward across the
southern tier of NC should be the main focus since this is where
the better combination of moisture convergence and instability
will be noted.

Expect there to be some potential for additional areas of flash
flooding this evening as a result of these clusters of heavy
showers and thunderstorms. This will include potential urban flash
flooding impacts. Bigger cities such as Charlotte, NC and perhaps
even as far west as Atlanta, GA may see these urban flooding
concerns over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8eIGLw_TixeHjRYgdixIhQ9i9a76iHXDbhk88NK4Pja9k1SrqudZ-3ksN7_aLjT3zkdNsqOC1cN-95xnMrNs9V4WF7E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...MRX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35778117 35527968 35507793 35267673 34827628
34137663 33807752 33737857 33757970 33748124
33498320 33388477 33818548 34428537 34748476
35068364 35668260

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 23, 2026 23:53:26

AWUS01 KWNH 232353
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-240530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0835
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
751 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Far Western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232351Z - 240530Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
this evening will support a threat for isolated to scattered areas
of flash flooding near the Front Range and out across the High
Plains.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows several
cold-topped convective clusters growing generally upscale across
eastern CO with activity near the Front Range and extending east
across the adjacent High Plains.

Modest, low-amplitude shortwave energy ejecting east across
central and eastern CO is interacting with a quasi-stationary
front and a pool of moderate to strong instability to support this
convection. MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg are noted locally,
and pockets of relatively strong moisture convergence are noted in
close proximity to the front.

Southeast low-level flow may tend to increase in strength with
some nocturnal enhancement later this evening across eastern CO
and especially areas of western KS. This will further strengthen
the moisture transport and provide at least an elevated pool of
instability as well. The end-result may tend to be an expansion of
convection with at least some broken MCS activity impacting
eastern CO and western KS through this evening.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected and some spotty
areas of 2 to 4 inch totals will be possible. This may be enough
rain to support an isolated to scattered threat for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-SwOI5cCgP1QhHYaHCU6y6MFIg4Sr3Yq02diRTFtTMnW6VQniSaKb9dwawjlRoz2gS1mku7_0etteyE0JmSS4QI_T7I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41270488 41180405 40830312 40180203 39270097
37990072 37400187 37530391 38590527 39970591
40780587 41150540

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 23, 2026 23:22:12

AWUS01 KWNH 232321
FFGMPD
TXZ000-240330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0834
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232320Z - 240330Z

SUMMARY...Mainly urban flash flooding will continue to be a
concern near and to the southwest of the Houston metropolitan area
this evening.

DISCUSSION...T.S. Bertha continues to advance inland across
southeast TX early this evening, and while the low-level center
has largely been devoid of any deep convection, the recent GOES-E
IR satellite imagery has shown a strong burst of deep convection
around the southwest flank of the circulation. This has allowed
for very heavy rainfall to impact portions of the Houston
metropolitan area over the last hour, and the latest radar and
satellite trends show the axis of deeper and colder cloud tops
shifting southwestward with time.

Strong moisture convergence around the southwest flank of the
system coupled with moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE values
of 1500 to 2500 J/kg) and high PWs of 2.5+ inches will support
extreme rainfall rates within this focused convective cluster
along with some sustainability of the convection at least for the
next few hours.

Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches/hour are expected, and some
isolated spotty totals of 4 to 5 inches where any cell repetition
occurs will be possible. Expect additional areas of mainly urban
flash flooding to be possible this evening as the activity
advances off to the southwest. FFG values are very high across the
region, but with such high short-term rates, the urban flash flood
threat will continue to be notable.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8TqIPFm35ngUin3LNVsDbY0L5XVjORStvkDAlNhDGoDMjQm1KwrrT6NQFwq0ODzjgVfa7T6g0_YNr1v7G4G8t78beFs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30359582 30149513 29859479 29399482 29089516
28589637 28499715 28639782 29079811 29569793
29889762 30249684

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 24, 2026 00:18:14

AWUS01 KWNH 240018
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-240500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0836
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Much of Central and Northern
AZ...Western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240016Z - 240500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms
will continue through this evening. Locally high rainfall rates
will continue to support a threat for mainly isolated areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
monsoonal showers and thunderstorms continuing to impact areas of
western NM up through the Mogollon Rim area of central and
northern AZ, and locally up across southern UT. Some of the
convection has been trending a bit more focused across northwest
AZ to the east of Kingman as some better defined outflow boundary
activity has pushed westward and away from the Mogollon Rim itself.

There are still some pockets of MLCAPE values reaching 1000 to
1500 J/kg, and this instability and proximity of multiple
colliding outflow boundaries in addition to orographics should
still facilitate a persistence of scattered convective clusters
going into the evening hours.

Rainfall rates of as much as 1 to 2 inches/hour will still be
possible over the next few hours, with a couple of spotty 2+ inch
totals not out of the question. This should support an isolated
threat of flash flooding, which may include impacts to any local
burn scar areas, slot canyons and normally dry washes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7o15OMta24aKdmbH4FcNeaqfjEoNAruNFn_1z7uT06f63W7RbLt0L_E7ZvNCvSZvoJUlxBYBSA3z53hTwt1nws54dPM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38171210 37801081 37161011 35970948 35020844
33970765 33140747 32490798 32350883 32611008
33661182 34101355 35071419 36591405 37821343

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 24, 2026 04:39:44

AWUS01 KWNH 240439
FFGMPD
KSZ000-241036-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0837
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1237 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240436Z - 241036Z

SUMMARY...The batch of thunderstorms over northern Kansas will be
the first in a growing area of thunderstorms across eastern KS
tonight. Storms will be capable of producing up to 3"/hr rainfall
rates and flash flooding may occur tonight. More urbanized
settings are most prone to potential flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar and GOES-19 IR show a cluster of strong thunderstorms over northern KS that are working their way east
along and just north of I-70 this evening. Storms are forming at
the nose of a strengthening 850mb jet that will approach 30-35 kts
over southwest KS tonight. There is also strong 850mb theta-e
advection that will overrun a surface-925mb air-mass featuring
cooler temperatures and E-SErly average-layer flow. This setup
acts as a form of isentropic ascent and will support additional
thunderstorms that are likely to form overnight and linger into
Friday AM.

These storms are forming in an environment that is growing
increasingly more saturated with PWs that are forecast to surpass
2.2" tonight, which are above the 99th climatological percentile
this time of year. There is also a narrow plume of 500-1,000 J/kg
of MUCAPE that resides within low-mid levels of the atmosphere
that are >90% RH. Lastly, there is also excellent low-level
vertical wind shear present given the strong veering winds from
the surface to 700mb (RAP mesoanalysis shows sfc-3km shear >30
kts).

FFGs are lowest along I-70 and east of I-35 where 1-hr FFGs are
less than 2"/hr. As storms move east, they will work their way
closer to east-central KS where FFGs are not as low, but a gradual
increase in urbanized communities are also present. MRMS 15-minute
radar estimated rainfall totals are topping out around 0.75",
suggesting hourly rainfall rates approaching 3"/hr are ongoing
within this first batch of storms. Given the copious amounts of
moisture, sufficient instability, and favorable shear aloft, there
is the potential for flash flooding tonight in eastern KS. Poor
drainage areas and urbanized communities are most vulnerable.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4XIXK-fYt8jSsfy6ejQu_i27KA1N_01LiCYhoApqN2QMVa9PmmgiOz9fJ26R33pd5ODPotwDLMcPoCeqU2AzPp7OY2s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39809666 39669537 38479519 38069612 38129768
38689845 39079867 39519858 39739795

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 24, 2026 04:46:42

AWUS01 KWNH 240446
FFGMPD
KSZ000-241036-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0837...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1245 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Corrected for MPD Time Duration Shortened

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240436Z - 241036Z

SUMMARY...The batch of thunderstorms over northern Kansas will be
the first in a growing area of thunderstorms across eastern KS
tonight. Storms will be capable of producing up to 3"/hr rainfall
rates and flash flooding may occur tonight. More urbanized
settings are most prone to potential flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar and GOES-19 IR show a cluster of strong thunderstorms over northern KS that are working their way east
along and just north of I-70 this evening. Storms are forming at
the nose of a strengthening 850mb jet that will approach 30-35 kts
over southwest KS tonight. There is also strong 850mb theta-e
advection that will overrun a surface-925mb air-mass featuring
cooler temperatures and E-SErly average-layer flow. This setup
acts as a form of isentropic ascent and will support additional
thunderstorms that are likely to form overnight and linger into
Friday AM.

These storms are forming in an environment that is growing
increasingly more saturated with PWs that are forecast to surpass
2.2" tonight, which are above the 99th climatological percentile
this time of year. There is also a narrow plume of 500-1,000 J/kg
of MUCAPE that resides within low-mid levels of the atmosphere
that are >90% RH. Lastly, there is also excellent low-level
vertical wind shear present given the strong veering winds from
the surface to 700mb (RAP mesoanalysis shows sfc-3km shear >30
kts).

FFGs are lowest along I-70 and east of I-35 where 1-hr FFGs are
less than 2"/hr. As storms move east, they will work their way
closer to east-central KS where FFGs are not as low, but a gradual
increase in urbanized communities are also present. MRMS 15-minute
radar estimated rainfall totals are topping out around 0.75",
suggesting hourly rainfall rates approaching 3"/hr are ongoing
within this first batch of storms. Given the copious amounts of
moisture, sufficient instability, and favorable shear aloft, there
is the potential for flash flooding tonight in eastern KS. Poor
drainage areas and urbanized communities are most vulnerable.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!44Tho2W8YhGY-pVcRsxc0keAR7v_-T5QYklrLmhuGkZUQdvNJauvWnsd02ZGSLb1lICC7bgedFvd4W25Ddc4Vn5YXrQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39809666 39669537 38479519 38069612 38129768
38689845 39079867 39519858 39739795

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 24, 2026 13:36:16

AWUS01 KWNH 241335
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-241930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0838
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
934 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Northern AL...Northern GA...Adj Souitheast TN,
Western NC, Far Upstate SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241335Z - 241930Z

SUMMARY...Scattered, slow moving thunderstorms capable of intense
focused heavy rainfall (2-2.5"/hr rates) support widely scattered
incidents of possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...13z surface analysis shows a weak surface wave along
the TN/AL/GA intersection just west of Chattanooga which as arched
the front northeastward across far SE TN before northeasterly CAD
flow along the eastern lee of the southern Appalachians have
anchored the front from GVL to LZU to CPP before angling
northeastward near the Fall-line in central SC near HQU. The
upstream portion of the front is dropping southward into northern
AL and is denoted best in the Visible imagery with some weak
northerly flow to help convergence south of the front.

Tds along and west remain well into the mid-70s with some
temperature separation from some weak early morning insolation;
though with broad weak 10-15kts of westerly low level flow, there
are some bubbling convective areas where MUCAPE has risen to over
1000, nearing 1250 J/kg. Orthogonal isentropic ascent to the
front has been the most effective in stronger and broader ascent
with a few cells being efficient enough for a localized 2"/hr
rate/total. However, moving off the front has resulted in
weakening into SC, though the persistent location of the ascent is
supportive of redevelopment and therefore increased potential of
repeating over the next few hours.

The increasing insolation through the morning coupled with weak
capping should see both an increase in coverage as well as
convective vigor, as MLCAPEs reach 1500 J/kg by late morning,
early afternoon hours. Upstream shortwave energy will provide
some dPVA and area (especially GA into the Carolinas will remain
in diffluent flow aloft to support some increased
divergence/outflow for convection. Total PWat values of 2 will
slightly increase toward 2.25" and deep layer steering flow will
remain slightly confluent (increasing to ~20kts) but mostly west
to east to allow for localized repeating/training especially as
the CAD erodes and the front lifts but remains fairly parallel to
the mean flow. Isolated spots of 2-3.5" remain possible, but most
should fall quickly and be in the range of the 1-3 hr FFG values
suggestive of widely scattered to scattered incidents of
focused/localized possible flash flooding. This would only
increase in potential if cells can intersect the prone urban
centers, especially Birmingham and Atlanta.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9pP6wLwRgmP8ixfy23YugVepcTlhmJCIzf7obVAwv5FhItVCUjjgObJaKuLLybv7fH2NEp9nSp7wuvTj3n7t57WxvvU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35448404 35308326 34808281 34008267 33498285
33398363 33438491 33208708 33818794 34358802
34658775 34858644 35398491

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 24, 2026 16:06:26

AWUS01 KWNH 241606
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-242015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0839
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1205 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Northern MS...Central Eastern AR...Adj. Southwest
TN, Northwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241605Z - 242015Z

SUMMARY...Narrow band of slow moving/repeating efficient heavy
rainfall storms capable of 2-2.5"/hr and focused localized 2-4"
totals and possible flash flooding

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite and RAP analysis denote an elongated
WNW to ESE shortwave/mid-level trof axis across western KY into
Middle TN helping to spur a weak surface wave over S TN, helping
to drop the stationary front southward across N MS into
south-central AR per 16z surface analysis. However, 850-700mb VWP
and Rap analysis shows some WAA across central AR and sharpening
850mb FGEN from north-central AR southeastward across N MS. As
such, a tightening of the moisture gradient and low level stratus
can be seen in Visible imagery. This small bifurcation of the
surface to just above boundary layer frontal slope is helping to
increase confluence and pooling of deep layer moisture with Total
Pwats over 2.25" and near 2.5" through this zone. MLCAPE analysis
also notes the sharpened of the gradient and with weak but
orthogonal winds providing solid convergence, the capping eastward
has sufficiently eroded for a narrow band of convection to start
to develop and expanded along the 850mb boundary from central
Eastern AR into north-central MS. Flux is weak given the 10kts of
inflow, but with ample available moisture especially loaded in the
lowest few km of the developing CBs and below the
freezing/Wet-bulb zero levels; efficient heavy tropical rain
showers can produce 2-2.5"/hr. Any localized broadening of the
updrafts may even trip a very isolated increase to 3"/hr locally.

As alluded to above, deep layer steering at or just above the
cloud base front, rapidly shifts more west to east but also has a
solid confluent component, especially across N MS into NW AL along
the southwest flank of the shortwave axis. This should support a
potential for repeating and training to the east and may help to
result in localized 3-4" totals through the early afternoon.
However, as the wave progresses and 850mb winds veer, upstream
redevelopment will reduce and progression of the convective line
will shift eastward into NE MS and perhaps NW AL toward 19z.

Hourly FFG values are high with 2.5-3"/hr and 3hr values in the
3-4" range, so even with training flash flooding risk will be more
isolated to widely scattered in nature and could potentially be
only limited to intersecting urban centers, especially Memphis if
the front can continue the slight northeast propagation seen
recently, though Oxford and Tupelo, MS still remain in some
potential risk of intersection/repeating as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8fR_1iQGwjZklr-Mv6bwhPdW5KL9PKk04IaXE1Zmjg6Ta7dNVdn-_kFauCBpNvbgjEwmAWWyi6ObzDRLEIqrO1H5tJw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35679182 35399016 35088849 34608702 34118679
33768723 33818859 34009010 34469144 35109215

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 24, 2026 18:34:06

AWUS01 KWNH 241833
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-250030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0840
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Four Corners Region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241832Z - 250030Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
foster concerns for at least isolated areas of flash flooding
today given locally high rainfall rates and areas of sensitive
terrain. Local burn scar areas, slot canyons, and the normally dry
washes will be most at risk for seeing runoff problems and flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
convective initiation taking places across the broader Four
Corners region including parts of the central Rockies and adjacent
areas of the Southwest. Strong diurnal heating has promoted MLCAPE
values of 500 to 1000 J/kg at least locally, but these values will
continue to rise going through the afternoon hours with the
persistence of solar insolation.

The subtropical ridge is rather well established over the region,
with monsoonal moisture trapped underneath. PWs are still rather
elevated with the OSPO ALPW data showing the best concentration of
deeper moisture situated across central and western NM up through
southern UT and southwest CO. Some values are still pushing 1.5 to
2.5 standard deviations above normal across these areas, and this
moisture coupled with orographic ascent/terrain and the build-up
of diurnally enhanced instability will favor scattered areas of
convection with rainfall rates capable of reaching 1 to 2
inches/hour.

A lack of deeper layer shear given the presence of the ridge axis
supports pulse mode convection. However, over time as additional terrain-enhanced convection evolves, there will likely be the
development and propagation of multiple outflow boundaries.
Localized collisions of these mesoscale boundaries or interactions
with differential heating/instability gradients will likely
facilitate additional regional development of convection which
could take on a multicell character.

The latest multi-model hires CAMs support as much as 2 to 3 inches
of rain where any cells become anchored near the high terrain or
locally repeating over the same area in vicinity of outflow
boundary collisions away from the terrain. These rains will
support at least isolated areas of flash flooding. Local burn scar
areas, slot canyons, and the normally dry washes will be most at
risk for seeing runoff problems and flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_hXEejXw5urJjY0-Qeqfhy5mg1B2FTp9sZpHLiWVUKYceWsXObY0wN7xYrA53wAZcBxxLdXue-KSC_5DlSguxkj_DDU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...SLC...
TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39260711 38720503 37330452 36310469 34890497
33300478 32600546 32820704 32790817 32780920
33471053 33811100 34201157 34611253 35181337
36121395 37561373 38581256 38831083 39060894

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 24, 2026 19:05:16

AWUS01 KWNH 241904
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-250100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0841
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Northern/Central AL...Northern/Central
GA...Western/ Southern SC...Far Southern NC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241900Z - 250100Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms with potential back-building
across the Carolina's intersecting approaching west to east
moving/repeating cells out of Alabama/Georgia. Ample moisture
should continue to support intense/efficient rates of 2-2.5"/hr.
Random collisions and short-term training/repeating may allow for
localized 2-5" totals for possible localized flash flooding
conditions through this evening.

DISCUSSION...19z Surface analysis shows little change from this
morning with coastal surface low over E NC continuing to drop
southeast along the stationary front as convection builds
southward in the remaining coastal warm sector across SC. The
cold air damning stratiform across the Upstate of SC and western
NC has been stubborn to erode and sharped the stationary front
cross NE GA, intersecting a second surface low over far SE TN. A
cold front continues to advance across N AL, tightening the
overall moisture/instability gradient across central AL into
northern and central GA.

Solid insolation along/south of the front as seen temperatures
rise into the mid to upper 80s, while Tds remain in the mid to
upper 70s and while the profiles are deeply staturated; narrow,
skinny MLCAPEs are still 2000-2500 J/kg. With the slightly
stronger surface wave and southward pushing cold front restricting
the moisture plume; deep layer confluence/convergence has sizably
increased convective activity across northern and central AL
starting to expand into W GA. Availability to 2.25-2.5" total
PWats (loaded mainly below 500mb) will continue to allow for
efficient rainfall production even with limited/weak inflow/flux.
Rates of 2-2.5" are probable and with cell motions of 5-10kts,
residency may allow for localized 2-3" totals and with upstream
development, random repeating could allow for localized 3-5"
totals through the evening.

Downstream into Coastal SC, instability has been reduced due to
some cloud debris from the moisture stream/elevated convection
earlier this morning across Upstate. Still, temps are rising into
the lower 90s across SE GA and far S SC, so MLCAPE values are
starting to approach 2000-2500 J/kg as well. The sharpness of the
frontal zone, as resulted in a narrow 500-1000 thickness ridge
across GA and with weak upstream height-falls and inflow from the
west, propagation vectors are along and south of the front; and
perhaps opposite of deeper steering flow to allow for some cells
to remain relatively stationary or allow for increased residency
of lingering moderate mid-cloud/downshear rainfall to continue for
a few hours after peak 2-2.5"/hr rates. WoFS runs suggest 3-5"
totals are probable especially given corralling effects of the
coastal convergence zone near shore.

If back-building were to occur, merger/collisions of upstream
convection with any developing cluster out of S SC, could further
increase localized totals; however, there is lower confidence in
this evolution toward 00z due to evolutionary spread in the Hi-Res
CAM suite overall. Still, with 2-5" totals scattered across the
area of concern, localized flash flooding risk will continue
through the evening into early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9_8pILfgFL_VCDLg9jXJYgmZOo2RhiSo5w2b_qakM_xc2i0vEZy60KNITt02eHA9gKjB_q1iqg3xwKe3xYYBnGo-vVA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...HUN...ILM...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35408326 34228145 34207951 34407774 33847767
33517856 32647966 32198047 31768105 31938168
32068225 32318410 32478520 32838652 33698752
34128748 34398642 34778505

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 24, 2026 23:36:06

AWUS01 KWNH 242335
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-250400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0842
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern NM...TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242334Z - 250400Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms should
persist through this evening across areas of eastern NM and out
into the TX Panhandle. An isolated threat for flash flooding will
exist given the relatively slow cell-motions and high rainfall
rates.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
locally broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting portions of the southern Rockies and out across the
southern High Plains. Convective tops continue to expand and cool
overall, and there has been an increase in the concentration of
convection across eastern NM in particular over the last 1 to 2
hours.

Much of the convection has been driven by a combination of
moderate instability within a moist airmass along with relatively
focused convergence along a surface trough across eastern NM up
toward the TX Panhandle region. Localized upslope flow also into
the east-facing slopes of the higher terrain including parts of
the Sangre De Cristo Range has facilitated areas of strong and
slow-moving convection.

The current activity should persist through the evening hours
while gradually exhausting the available instability pool which is
still characterized by MLCAPE values locally near 1500 J/kg. The
PWs are generally between 1.25 and 1.50 inches, and the
combination of this with the instability will still help drive 1
to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates in the short-term.

Slow cell-motions and some cell-merger activity will continue to
support some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts through this
evening. This will support an isolated threat for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6IjPAprduLG-5l8g2aGAq8cVDofTWP_B5tklofgMZqa0WPpcygAQ5mmbVpYABQlKMlyR8wvS2GcUC7SQHrF3UwuYh80$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36500409 36230370 35770343 35520299 35980132
35410096 33800241 33150342 33010458 33680540
34680563 35540515 36230476

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, July 25, 2026 00:09:40

AWUS01 KWNH 250009
FFGMPD
MNZ000-250530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0843
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Northern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250008Z - 250530Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with concerns for
cell-training going through the evening hours may drive a threat
for at least localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a few
impressive convective clusters advancing across northern MN which
have exhibited some localized cell-training concerns. The activity
is being driven by the arrival of a shortwave trough and belt of
strong mid-level winds/shear that is combining with approach of a
cold front and strong thermodynamics ahead of it for organized
convection.

MLCAPE value are upwards of 2500 to 3500 J/kg, with PWs of 1.5 to
1.75 inches. This along with effective bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts
is fostering supercell thunderstorms, and there has been some
occasional redevelopment of these cells over the last hour across
northwest MN in behind an initial round of storms that has already
crossed the region and dropped down to the southeast.

The latest HRRR and RRFS guidance is rather robust with their QPF
over the next few hours, with the consensus suggesting localized
swaths of 3 to 5 inches of rain. They may be just a tad high with
their output, but with some of the cell-training concerns noted
recently, it cannot be ruled out.

The antecedent conditions here are quite dry, but the rainfall
rates with the stronger and more organized cells may reach 1.5 to
2+ inches/hour, and any cell-training for heavier totals may
result in their being a localized threat for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8XjW3BDE2u1fYb-8t3D3WZhFpPoIU_Z3oXuQrF3XT5XFVCtR1IMQw3PKGVcAGEYN6HkS3inOT5XnSCChNpeDVfF9Zx0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48819537 48759458 48509336 47969238 47409240
47129307 47159404 47329504 47469564 47719642
47999690 48389692 48579675 48759622

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, July 25, 2026 00:58:14

AWUS01 KWNH 250058
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-250500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0844
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
856 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern AZ...Central and Northern
AZ...Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250056Z - 250500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
continue for at least a few more hours across portions of eastern
AZ through central and northern NM, and also adjacent areas of
southern CO. Lingering areas of high rainfall rates may continue
to drive some additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery continues to
show pockets of cold-topped monsoonal convection across portions
of far eastern AZ and especially central and northern NM. Some
pockets of convection are also persisting locally across southern
CO as well.

Lingering instability with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg will
continue to work in tandem with areas of higher terrain and any
outflow boundaries to support some additional convection for at
least a few more hours. The overall convective footprint should
tend to decrease with the gradual loss of daytime heating and
convective overturning processes, but the radar imagery is
suggesting some subtle hints at an MCV developing over central NM.

This weak MCV will slowly edge westward through this evening and
may tend to help locally maintain a modest dynamical focus for
convection despite the gradual decrease in boundary layer
instability.

Given the depth of monsoonal moisture that is in place and the
available instability, rainfall rates in the near-term will still
be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger cells.
This will thus still support potential for some runoff problems
and isolated areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6JWPFzfpswLA2jgc7aX5bl9CM4axoCPLFFy1y2hy6c8RnRLYwZ8K7kPmGsBQvEHDq3dRF2alTAawhD5iSZHcBrajRHI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38820486 38360432 37550461 35990549 34310566
33040593 32540694 32790867 33480960 34340985
35270973 35990941 36520909 37460818 38280705
38780595

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, July 25, 2026 11:45:48

AWUS01 KWNH 251138
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-251536-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0845
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
737 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251136Z - 251536Z

SUMMARY...Persistent convection focused along a narrow axis of
low-level convergence will pose a localized flash flood threat
near the MO/IL border. Continued backbuilding and cell training
could support localized hourly rainfall of 2-3".

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and IR satellite imagery indicate a
small-scale but resilient area of strong convection ongoing near
the Missouri/Illinois border. This activity is anchored along a
maximum in 925-850 mb low level convergence, which is interacting
with a relatively narrow corridor of instability. Mesoanalysis
indicates moderate instability with CAPE values hovering around
1000 J/kg, co-located with an anomalously moist airmass featuring
PW values in excess of 2.0 inches.

While the overall footprint of favorable ingredients remains
narrow, upstream convective development into the low level flow is
actively supporting localized cell training. Satellite trends show
a persistent and robust updraft that has outlasted recent HRRR
runs which attempted to weaken and move the activity eastward too
quickly. While IR imagery does not suggest the system is growing
upscale into a broader convective complex, the central area of
strong updrafts is persisting.

Over the next few hours, this convection will likely remain
small-scale, but it should gradually expand slightly eastward as
the 925?850 mb moisture transport axis shifts in that direction.
Concurrently, backbuilding on the western flank will remain a
concern. Given the 2"+ PWAT airmass, efficient rainfall production
will support localized hourly rainfall as high as 2-3" within the
strongest cores, resulting in an isolated flash flood risk for
low-lying and sensitive drainage areas.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-vKl7PhouaK2iBn7njDgJ5B53KqsRTR7L6w3B_yo4G_18Uv6zA3wWo9MDhkBUMBcnICqSk5Py5FbB2Wh-GejBqTmXT4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 39569005 39238946 38698900 38238892 38048932
38098982 38659027 38829035 39139060 39389058

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, July 25, 2026 14:48:12

AWUS01 KWNH 251447
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-251946-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0846
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1046 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...Far northeast SC, southern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251446Z - 251946Z

SUMMARY...An expanding convective complex along a frontal boundary
will pose an isolated flash flood risk over the next few hours
from far northeast SC into southern NC. While fast individual cell
motions will limit widespread flooding, brief cell training within
a very moist environment could yield hourly rainfall of 2-3"/hr
and isolated flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and IR satellite imagery show an
expanding area of convection with cooling cloud tops advancing
across far northeast SC into southern NC. This activity is
developing within a thermodynamic environment conducive to heavy
rainfall along an advancing frontal zone. Recent mesoanalysis
indicates precipitable water values around 2.4 inches, values near
the climatological max for late July. Combined with moderate
instability characterized by MUCAPE values between 1000 and 2000
J/kg, the environment will support highly efficient precipitation
production.

Individual cell motions are relatively quick. This fast movement
will act as a primary mitigating factor, preventing widespread or
significant flooding across the region. However, as the convective
complex expands and consolidates along the frontal boundary, the
structure is becoming sufficiently organized to support localized
cell training and repeating of heavy convective cores over the
same areas.

Within the strongest convective cores, intense rainfall locally
reaching 2 to 3 inches per hour are expected. Rates of this
magnitude may begin to locally exceed Flash Flood Guidance
thresholds. While widespread flooding is not anticipated due to
storm motion, the combination of favorable precipitation
efficiency and brief cell training will be sufficient to produce
localized flash flood impacts over the next few hours,
particularly over sensitive drainage basins and low-lying areas

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5eecXWtt4k0wOvJ2HBz8Fs9BiKE3pHfa4Gi5lV--YkrtKvF9P1BvEIVfv_mmczkJ67E9O75fbBTWAMzwAxruzfPnM2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34877722 34357673 33777784 33537874 33547913
34287968 34807841

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, July 25, 2026 16:11:48

AWUS01 KWNH 251611
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-252209-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0847
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...Southern TN, Northern MS and AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251609Z - 252209Z

SUMMARY...A persistent convective cluster tied to a compact MCV
over southern Tennessee will continue to pose a localized flash
flood threat through early afternoon. While regional activity
remains mostly disorganized, diurnal destabilization could allow a
localized threat to expand southward into northern Mississippi and
Alabama and northwest Georgia.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery depict a broad
area of showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley. The synoptic setup features westerly low-level
moisture transport supplying a deep moisture profile with
precipitable water values hovering between 2.3 and 2.5 inches.
While an approaching weak mid-level shortwave is aiding ascent
across the region, a general lack of strong, focused low-level
convergence has kept much of the regional convection disorganized.

The primary exception is a persistent, organized cluster of storms
over southern Tennessee. This activity appears to be anchored to a
compact MCV that is locally enhancing low-level convergence. New
updraft development has been initiating upstream of this feature,
creating an axis of cell training. Given the high PWAT airmass,
this cluster is driving intense hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 3
inches. Over increasingly saturated ground conditions from
previous rainfall, these heavy rates will continue to produce
localized flash flood impacts over southern Tennessee. Confidence
remains low regarding how much longer this MCV-driven feature will
maintain its current organization, with latest IR imagery showing
some cloud top warming trends.

Furthermore, confidence is also low on whether additional
convective organization will occur elsewhere. However, as diurnal
heating continues to fuel an uptick in instability across the
region, there is potential for localized storm intensification
further south across northern MS, northern AL and northwest GA as
this MCV drifts southward. Should any localized boundary
interactions or cell backbuilding materialize within these
southern areas, intense rain rates could produce a localized flash
flood threat.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8iqpLmi3dJ6SZTDbcIS_QnoVUhAlciuek_gMj4Ukf8-IBFQ9UTfby17gxOVpUIPqg4WOroCi-8Lvq3c68RT-SqnolRQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35558716 35158584 34298474 33778536 33428660
33658822 34108986 34479011 35178943 35408850

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, July 25, 2026 18:12:42

AWUS01 KWNH 251812
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-260015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0848
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...Much of North-central & Eastern Arizona...Much of
Western & Southern New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251815Z - 260015Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms developing on the higher
terrain should move off to W and SW with potential upstream redevelopment/repeating. Rates of .75-1.25"/hr may result in
scattered localized flash flooding conditions. Due to
repeating/redevelopment, higher potential for localized 2"+ totals
across the eastern Mogollon Rim and Mogollon Mtns may have higher coverage/potential into this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a broad, symmetric high
pressure is centered just east of the Four Corners with a slightly
elongated SW to E entrapped shortwave feature close to Black Range
in Southwest New Mexico. This wave is helpful of low level
upslope flow from the southern deserts of AZ into the Rim and SW
NM Ranges. As such, mountain cycle upslope/convergence is well
into maturity across much of the area of concern though some areas
of remaining enhanced 700mb moisture across Graham to Soccoro
county. While winds are weak, there is general
convergence/confluence in the 700mb layer along the western and
northwestern edge of the shortwave trof and so increasing
convection, with slightly higher density is expected across the
Eastern Mogollon Rim into the Mogollan Range/Black Range over the
Next few hours. With further direct insolation, MLCAPEs are
expected to rise into the mid-1000s and isallobaric response
should further enhance moisture convergence especially out of AZ.

Deep layer flow will direct most convection westward along the Rim
and across the upper slopes of southwest Arizona through the
afternoon period with spots of .75"/hr increasing toward 1.25"/hr
toward early evening. This should result in localized incidents
of flash flooding given hard, rocky ground conditions across the
area. However, continued easterly and northeasterly confluent
flow out of the Southern High Plains into NM and through the Rio
Grande Valley; an additional round of thunderstorm activity is
expected toward late afternoon/early evening allowing for some
repeating across similar areas with a spot or two of 2" totals.

Sacramento mountains in SE NM...
While not in much of the same regime with confluent flow along the
northern and western side of the shortwave; the upslope response
should be above average today, still responding to the wave along
its southwest periphery. RAP analysis and local mesoscale wind
observations, also suggest counter upslope along the western
slopes too, which may aid to some increased duration/terrain
locking of the convective cells. As noted prior, the upslope
streamers look fairly impressive to suggest a slightly enhanced
day of convective activity. Hi-Res CAMs are supportive of
localized 2" totals along the main ridge and given proximity to
burn scars, flash flooding is considered possible this afternoon
here as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Gm4EnDwR_QS6wwTL068WLA6L8bc5OUxNIRjK6FkkIU9sdZYvrrI7Kgp61FYQsLIzHf11ICbgJ7uvEQf63ycK52OC-Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36590903 35940854 35380794 34650624 34150529
32650523 32440587 33020618 33100674 32810738
32300817 31360876 31210994 31261092 31701149
32721117 33191128 33741170 33951217 34141254
34811303 35721219 35411073 35730997 36160965
36470948

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, July 25, 2026 23:42:36

AWUS01 KWNH 252342
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-260530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0849
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
741 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...Much of Arizona...West-central New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252345Z - 260530Z

SUMMARY...Scattered incidents of potential flash flooding continue
through early overnight, especially in the higher terrain across
the Mogollon Rim into Mogollon

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible imagery shows
organized band of thunderstorms or weak mesoscale complex across
the central Mogollon Rim starting to decend into the lower valley
of central AZ. However, stronger outflow and slightly less
unstable air (higher Temp/Td spread in Sun Valley) and slightly
divergent low level flow, may help to skip over the more populated
area as suggested by the vast majority of hi-res CAM solutions.
However, with night fall, southerly flow off the northern Sea of
Cortez will help to surge northward and sizably increase low level
moisture convergence for additional development over and southwest
of the Phoenix Metro area. Spots of 1"/hr rates should refocus
toward LaPaz and W Mericopa county with some potential into SW
Maricopa as well.

However, instability has been building over SE AZ and newer
development is starting to sprout within the confluent area along
the western portion of the slow moving mid-level shortave near the
AZ/NM border. The outflow out of Gila county should furhter help
to focus convergence and broader scale ascent for increasing
scattered cells. Lower dew-point depressions and increasing total
PWats up to 1.25-1.5" may support increasing rainfall efficiency
with spots of 1.25-1.5"/hr possible.

Upstream along the northern edge of the shortwave trough, had a
bit more insolation throughout the day and slight cooling aloft
with continued east to east-southeast upslope out of the Rio Grand
Valley has helped to see a larger scale over-turning and
convecitve initiation from far Eastern AZ into the Gallo,
Mogolloon Ranges. Solid upstream streets of low cu also suggest
lingering persistence of inflow to help maintain the cells into
smaller clusters that will advance west into the eastern San
Francisco Plateau. Here, northward advancing outflow from the Rim
complex will also increased low level moisture flux convergence to
enhance the leading edge cells. Rates of 1.5" and slowing forward
cell motions may allow for localized 2"+ totals which may result
in localized flash flooding concerns.

Overall, loss of insolation will likely reduce overall intensity
and coverage from 03-06z for most areas, with additional
development likely along the flanking outflow of dying storms
seeking out any remaining areas of unstable air.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4fg2YvwgNOAt2yI1DMX3ql1dMwn5gceos8QtakaeDDKr48V8evt1iflztSo98GOO0uAHNazDSlb-aDTfJpLKY9XU2EI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36190969 35960892 35470837 34820801 33960779
33440818 33330902 33100921 31790926 31290951
31281083 31511176 32251251 32861346 33331398
34111402 34691372 35121331 35401283 35631230
35641151 35881078 36111016

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 09:59:42

AWUS01 KWNH 080959
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-081500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0972
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 AM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Arkansas into far northern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080957Z - 081500Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across
southwest/south-central Arkansas through late morning. Rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are expected, which through slow storm motions
could produce 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a
rapid uptick in thunderstorm activity across southwest Arkansas.
This activity is blossoming rapidly downstream of an MCV evident
in the GOES-E ProxyVis satellite imagery, with the rapid growth
driving a coincident increase in LightningCast probabilities. This
suggests that convection will continue to strengthen the next few
hours, supported by an impressive overlap of PWs measured via GPS
of around 2 inches and MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg. Despite this
convection being quite fresh, hourly rainfall in excess of 1 inch
has already been measured by MRMS, additionally suggestive of the
favorable environment in place.

The high-res CAMs are struggling with this early activity, as both
the HRRR and RRFS are completely missing this new development.
However, there is a signal in both ARWs which is translating to a
reasonable solution in the HREF blended-mean QPF suggesting 2-4"
of rain with locally higher amounts above 5" possible (10-20%
chance from the HREF). This will be due to the anticipated
extremely slow movement of the convection as mean 0-6km winds
remain just around 5-10 kts.

850mb inflow is modest at just 10-15 kts as reflected by both the
SPC RAP analysis and regional VWPs. However, this is still
sufficient to drive strong convergence as it exceeds the mean wind
by almost almost double in some places. The veering of this inflow
will additionally result in Corfidi vectors becoming aligned
against the mean wind and collapsing, which will result in
backbuilding and training cells with net motion approaching 0kts
at times, lengthening the duration of heavy rainfall.

Antecedent conditions are quite dry (NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil
moisture generally below the 10th percentile) from a lack of
recent rainfall, and 3-hr FFG is elevated at 3-4 inches. However,
the favorable setup for very slow moving storms with intense rain
rates could still overwhelm soils, at least locally, leading to
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6i0XH22n0pnAo03t-i74tSXmem3oD7mx8nuvXArQGw4Pq9xKhlzMBWdJQYzP3Pfe5XtSNv5RgCzB0yTFuTgLcqzjkeg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35799328 35589182 34759147 33959151 33299200
32869276 32639359 32809436 33699427 35439397

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 13:01:40

AWUS01 KWNH 081300
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-081557-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0973
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 AM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...West Virginia to Central Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081257Z - 081557Z

Summary... Isolated flash flooding possible across portions of
Western Virginia to central Pennsylvania.

Discussion...Satellite shows brightening cloud tops and increasing
lightning near the West Virginia and Pennsylvania border. Rainfall
rates are nearing an inch per hour on an isolated basis with
eastward moving, training cells embedded in ~30 kt westerly flow
aloft. Storms are embedded with an airmass characterized by
1.5-1.7 inch PWATS and persistent low-level moist advection into
the discussion area. Instability is marginal (~1000 J/kg), but
sufficient to maintain ongoing activity. Additionally, a
mid-level shortwave trough centered over northern Ohio was moving
toward the discussion area, providing ascent to support continued
heavy rainfall beneath the storms.

Isolated flash flooding is possible in sensitive terrain in the
northern West Virginia -- potentially including towns of Fairmount
and Morgantown. The foothills of the Appalachians in southwestern
and central Pennsylvania will also be susceptible to localized
flooding. A quick 1-2 inches of rain in a hour may exceed local
FFG thresholds (currently in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range). The cells
are likely to persist as they move eastward at around 15-25 knots,
reaching portions of south-central PA and western Maryland through
15Z/11a eastern.

Wilder

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_bVI_MqvZ69MBhQY2MqwqAs9DZ8WooGZlGXPGCPn9-PeUVuKMOifmDqKFKyN_mmljP5JbOdTplUMl8oFlerPYmb8h1c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40707936 40637834 40597743 40297680 39757748
39267847 38747948 38548039 38918149 39198188
39218191 40158130 40568060 40668005

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 15, 2026 00:37:10

AWUS01 KWNH 150036
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150535-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...central/northeastern Colorado, southwestern
Nebraska, northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150035Z - 150535Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will gradually spread
northeastward out of Colorado into portion of the High Plains
through 05Z/11p mountain.

Discussion...Areas of scattered thunderstorm activity have evolved
into a series of slow-moving clusters and cells producing
occasional 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates. Recent convective trends
show a couple of forward-propagating segments between Akron/Limon
and near Oshkosh, with upstream cells focused primarily along
remnant outflows from prior convection. The storms are embedded
in very weak mid-level steering flow (less than 10 knots), with
1-1.5 inch PW values (highest with eastward extent) supporting
ongoing, locally heavy rainfall. Rain rates are exceeding FFG
thresholds at times (around 1 inch/hr in many areas), and a few
impacts have been reported near Denver, Cheyenne, and north of
Pueblo.

The downstream, airmass across much of the discussion area
contains a pool of undisturbed instability (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE)
and only weak convective inhibition. Trends suggest that ongoing
activity will continue to slowly propagate northeastward across
the discussion area, gradually reaching the CO/KS/NE border region
over the next 2-3 hours. As it does, locally heavy rain rates
will remain likely given continued slow movement and propagation
toward even more moisture (1.7+ inch PW). FFG thresholds are
slightly higher with eastward extent (around 1.5 inch or more),
suggestive that the ongoing flash flood risk may gradually become
more isolated with time. Storms will take some time to respond to
nocturnal low-level stabilization, and should persist through at
least 05Z/11p mountain time especially where upscale growth has
occurred.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4MZacy7pZNanZQZOELZFQ8xNu6hRwOnXtyg3dIuNkr5TFe1SkJ4qUs0vnEh0rWJ7fzimdu0aaGDGTI1Itmxr_ynBw5E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42160208 41240114 40150099 38710120 38060175
38440405 39980479 41060395 41940386

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 15, 2026 02:51:58

AWUS01 KWNH 150251
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-150830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1057
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1050 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern CA...Far Southern NV...Northwest AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150250Z - 150830Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with strong concerns for cell-training and high rainfall rates will continue through the
evening hours over especially far southern NV, northwest AZ, and
perhaps small portions of far eastern CA. Additional areas of
flash flooding are likely which may include dangerous and
life-threatening impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR/VIS satellite imagery suite
shows cold-topped convection persisting and locally regenerating
over areas of far southern NV, northwest AZ and a small part of
eastern CA. This is occurring with the deeper layer southerly
fetch of monsoonal moisture and instability interacting with and
overrunning a well-defined convectively reinforced cold pool and
associated outflow boundary that is nearly stationary.

Surface observations and satellite data show the southern extent
of the outflow boundary generally anchored in between Bullhead
City, AZ and Needles, CA, with a northeast extent of this over to
just southeast of Grand Canyon, AZ. Radar data over the last hour
has shown a substantial area of regenerating and locally
cell-training convection over portions of Clark and Mohave
Counties.

The latest RAP analysis shows MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg
over the top of the cold pool with the aid of focused southerly
low to mid-level flow around the southeast flank of an upper
trough advancing northeastward toward the southern Great Basin.
Moisture flux anomalies in the 850/700mb layer are also on the
order of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. Satellite
imagery currently is also showing rather divergent flow aloft over
the region given proximity of the upper trough and associated jet
axis, and this is providing deeper layer ascent to help sustain
the convection.

Additional areas of locally focused heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the evening hours, with the
environment capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour, and additional storm totals of as much as 2 to 4
inches. This coupled with the rains that have already occurred
over the last couple of hours will support additional areas of
flash flooding, and at least localized concerns for dangerous and life-threatening impacts. Normally dry washes and any nearby slot
canyon and burn scar areas will be at greatest risk for impacts,
and this may include a heightened threat for downstream flood wave
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6BuljOTsCj9RpDZ3IOqAekikAWvi5I3fnkgM8VtS_glPRWDycYh71e2h6i6cOKrtg18uaRAQ_68VtpNPwgRZy9YcbjE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37081347 37011290 36631228 35941196 35491221
35021323 34841481 35031596 35451627 35811626
36151578 36491487 36931405

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 15, 2026 05:06:42

AWUS01 KWNH 150506
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-151100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1058
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...Far Northeast KS...Extreme Southeast
NE...Southern IA...Northern MO...Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150503Z - 151100Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms with significant cell-training concerns will exist
overnight. Numerous areas of flash flooding are likely with
elevated concerns for high-end and life-threatening impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
shows a well-defined MCV advancing east across central IA which is
in close proximity to a strong elevated instability gradient
situated along and north of a quasi-stationary front draped from
northeast KS through northern MO and into south-central IL.

MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are in place, with extremely
high PWs of 2.2 to 2.4+ inches based on the latest RAP analysis
and GPS-derived DATA. The 00Z RAOB data from KDVN and KILX show
deep WCL profiles with a highly tropical airmass extending deep
through the vertical column.

This environment is supportive of extreme rainfall rate potential
(2 to 4 inches/hour) over the next several hours as developing and
expanding areas of showers and thunderstorms occur along and north
of the stationary front. This will be facilitated by a
strengthening southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts overrunning
the front, promoting enhanced isentropic ascent/forcing, and also
driving enhanced moisture and instability transport into the
southern flank of the MCV crossing through the Midwest.

Very high FFG exceedance probabilities are showing up in the 00Z
HREF, and an analysis of the HRRR-TLE data (last 6 runs) strongly
supports a threat for extremely heavy rainfall totals at least
locally across parts of northern MO, southern IA and through
central IL with elevated concerns for high-end impacts.

Current radar and satellite trends integrated with the hires CAMs
suggest potential for as much as 4 to 7+ inches of rain by dawn on
at least a localized basis where enhanced cell-training takes
place. The environment is highly conducive for this, and with such
high moisture and instability profiles coupling with a belt of
stronger mid-level flow/shear for cell-organization/MCS
development, high-end rainfall rates/storm potential appears
likely.

The antecedent conditions are quite sensitive/moist across
especially areas of southeast IA and central IL due to recent
heavy rainfall, and the FFG values are already low here.
Therefore, the expectation over the next several hours will be for
numerous areas of flash flooding to materialize, with concerns for
dangerous and life-threatening impacts.

The threat will be somewhat lower farther back to the
west-southwest across northwest MO, northeast KS and far southeast
NE, but areas of heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding will
exist here too. This situation more broadly over the Midwest needs
to be very carefully monitored going through the early morning
hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6CGsF9H8-Zs6vels4gYXUGiTdoLH-t9Anm_dxUJMBFmdXfDNiJk9H9h4F4az_zouVcCGYbgrpmEo_Q7brVPjy9fivnE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...LOT...LSX...OAX...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41659034 41558913 41168760 40328728 39818815
39539102 39409352 39089557 39229639 39759676
40239667 40659585 41279397 41529243

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 15, 2026 09:03:02

AWUS01 KWNH 150902
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-151500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1059
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...Southeast IA...Northeast MO...Central and
Northern IL...Central and Northern IN...Far Western OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150900Z - 151500Z

SUMMARY...Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity with locally
extreme rainfall rates will continue this morning. Numerous to
widespread areas of flash flooding including areas of high-end and life-threatening impacts are expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a strong
west/east oriented MCS advancing across sizable areas of the
Midwest. The coldest convective tops (-75 to -80 celsius) are
depicted over far southeast IA through western and central IL.
MRMS data shows extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms with
rainfall rates occasionally into the 2 to 3+ inch/hour range.

All of the convective activity continues to advance east along a
strong elevated instability gradient situated north of a
quasi-stationary front draped from northern MO eastward across
southern IL and adjacent areas of the Lower OH Valley.

MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are in place, with extremely
high PWs of 2.2 to 2.4+ inches based on the latest RAP analysis
and GPS-derived data. Earlier RAOB soundings from 00Z confirmed
deep WCD layers and an environment conducive for extremely
efficient convection with high-end rainfall rates.

This will continue to be supported through early this morning by
the nose of a southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts overrunning
the front. This will sustain enhanced isentropic ascent/forcing
while promoting downstream moisture and instability transport. An
MCV also remains embedded within the larger scale convective mass
across southeast IA, and this coupled with the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment will favor convective
sustenance for several more hours.

Numerous to widespread areas of flash flooding are already
occurring across far southeast IA through western and central IL.
This threat is expected to extend downstream this morning across
eastern IL and much of central IN. By late this morning, areas of
western OH may also begin to be impacted. Low FFG values and high
streamflows per USGS data are noted all across these areas, and
thus the antecedent conditions are very sensitive.

The latest model guidance supports additional rainfall amounts
through this morning as high as 3 to 6+ inches, and especially
with strong cell-training concerns. Given the antecedent
environment, and high rainfall potential over multiple major
metropolitan areas, high-end and life-threatening flash flooding
impacts are expected.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9CwXyETkdfdE6u9Nc9Fuf0dIYseb-PrPcmPJb2qmbO9G8aOskhlgBXWjVQUM-L0qNq2VPA_isflO6K_Vmsacoj-dzic$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41698779 41568653 41298518 40888458 40358443
39828470 39458538 39258700 39418922 39589088
39869256 40119327 40649367 41189329 41449196
41648996

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 22, 2026 11:12:04

AWUS01 KWNH 221111
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-221630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Central Oklahoma...South-Central Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221110Z - 221630Z

SUMMARY...Narrow band of slow moving elevated storms with
favorable orientation for possible repeating along the I-35
corridor places a few urban centers at risk of possible localized
flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR shows expanding line
of scattered cooling tops oriented favorably along/near the I-35
corridor from south-central KS into Central OK. Tops have been
cooling fairly quickly nearing -70C aligned with core of deep
layer moisture but also conditionally unstable air with spine of
2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 1.5-1.75" total PWat. CIRA LPW animation of
Sfc-850 and 850-700mb layers show this weakly curved arc of
enhanced moisture. Low level flow is generally parallel to the
band through 850mb, though 700mb westerly flow is more orthogonal
to the moisture/instability axis likely convergent near the base
of the elevated instability within the vertical profile to seed
the scattered development. Low level southerly to
south-southwesterly inflow response likely further helped to
deepen the vertical depth of the cells, so given the shear though
the layer; cell motions have been slow.

Additionally, while the RAP shows some modest divergence aloft,
animation of GOES-E WV shows a very tight anticyclonic ridge axis
through western OK; likely providing greater than analyzed
divergence for further vertical ascent and outflow for some weak
organization and maintenance of the updrafts. So many conditional
elements have come together for greater than forecast convective
development this morning per Hi-Res CAM suite. While the 09z RRFS
has backed off, the 06z run was more in line with this evolution
and given the natural bias of the RRFS to be a bit more aggressive
with convective initiation in a capped environment (relative to
other CAMs, esp. the HRRR), this seems to be a solution to provide
some guidance in the near-term.

Given the instability, rates and 15-20kts of 700mb flow (as well
as southerly 20+kts of boundary layer inflow), moisture flux is
supporting 1.75-2"/hr rates. However, the weak inflow and veered
profile does hint at weaker overall deep layer convergence, so
updrafts are a bit narrower than ideal for repeating training.
Still, the 700-400mb steering flow along the shortwave ridging in
W OK, may allow for some locations for repeating, though slow cell
motions will likely be the best way to result in increased
residency for spots of 2-4" totals. Given the recent dry
conditions FFG values are higher with exception of north-central
OK where 3hr values are 2-2.5" compared to 3-4"+ further south.
Still, the placement of the line is nearly directly along I-35 and
places larger urban centers in proximity from Wichita to Ponca
City/Stillwater into the Edmond/OKC/Norman areas. So, if ideal training/repeating can align, these will be the areas of greatest
localized flash flooding potential this morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4mdLFXAfqzyTZHNYrztkM78ZL07jvd05XKuNAZiUHvcyDa2btJ4sl_MCid49r0JJMGc1HkoXUvz4fj3-_QgE_mRSKoQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38439827 38119752 36419658 35169636 34199677
33989742 34339778 35449759 36679785 37479818
38149842

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 22, 2026 13:48:54

AWUS01 KWNH 221348
FFGMPD
MIZ000-221930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
947 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Lower Peninsula of Michigan...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221350Z - 221930Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms capable of 1.5"/hr with
localized slow motions further north and back-building/repeating
further south may allow for localized flash flooding concerns
through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows a broad longwave trof centered over
the LP of MI this morning with a stronger upstream shortwave
digging out of WI providing height-falls and
strengthening/sharpening of the surface low near the Mackinaw
Strait with an attendant cold front angling southwest just
crossing the far southeast side of Lake Michigan into SW MI at
this time. A upstream exiting MCV between Lake Erie and Ontario
allows for broadening downstream portion of the longwave trough
with solid diffluence aloft to promote ascent along and well ahead
of the cold front. Instability has been a limiting factor
through eastern MI but RAP analysis modified by recent surface
temperatures suggests weakly capped 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
reducing to 250 J/kg in far E MI, with initial, early morning
convection exhausting much of it. However, that convection helped
develop a WSW to ENE boundary and with favorable southerly
component to low level winds and available unstable air has been
able to develop stronger flanking development with somewhat
favorable orientation to the deep layer mean flow to increase
residency.

Surface Tds in the low 60s and modest mid-level moisture with the
effective warm conveyor pressed eastward is limiting overall
available moisture to around 1.25"; so localized convergence/flux
will be the driving force for rates of 1.5" with occasionally
higher localized peaks. This is falling generally over the core of
the sandier soils of central LP where FFGs are high, but proximity
to urban locations along the I-96 corridor may still pose urban
flash flooding, but at least prep the area for later developing
convection from the cold front toward early afternoon.

Further north, as the shortwave sharpens the mean steering flow
will reduce in the trough especially along/east of the
strengthening surface wave. So cells will increase in residency
toward NE LP. This is also where FFGs are naturally a bit lower
with spots of 1-1.5"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hrs. As such, with
multiple rounds and possible mergers due to the sharpening/pivot
in the line, localized totals of 2-3" are possible and may result
in localized flash flooding concerns toward afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4xiNpVCFzN2qThmE28vTqjO539G32q2S7CzUK7cGTEMXSWszUwgDYZqu0rpyflaj49cKB7d3FfV2XdPYQYsTv_mAUb0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...GRR...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45408442 45358357 44998319 44348316 44148285
43718246 42678240 42378281 42188307 42148364
42158500 42578530 43298490 43808493 44228553
45058512

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 22, 2026 14:50:16

AWUS01 KWNH 221450
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1111
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Middle to Lower Chesapeake Bay Region...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221450Z - 222030Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/training warm-cloud efficient rainfall
production to 2.5"/hr pose localized flash flooding with 2-4"
totals in 1-3hrs.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV and Regional RADAR shows a shortwave
feature moving northeast in the warm conveyor belt southeast of
the tip of the Delmarva Peninsula; while the expanding right
entrance region of a 80-90kt 300mb jet remains directly overhead.
This direct circulation is tightening (FGEN) a SW to NE
convergence/deformation zone across South-central MD into southern
DE. An axis of modest but sufficient low level unstable air
existed through the lower Chesapeake Bay with a wedge of 1000 J/kg
of MUCAPE residing along this axis of deep layer moisture
convergence. As such, shallow thunderstorms developed across
Charles to N Calvert county and extend through the Bay toward
Talbot county. The shallow nature though with solid moisture flux
through channeling up the Bay supports efficient
tropical/warm-cloud rainfall production to support 2-2.5"/hr
rates. In addition, localized frictional convergence along the
edges/inlets of the Bay has resulted in more scattered/isolated
but equally efficient heavy rainfall producing cells. Deep layer
steering and fairly stationary right entrance region suggest slow
forward propagation through the Bay toward the Eastern Shore over
the next few hours.

Observations so far of 1.5 to 3" in about 60-90 minutes and while
the area is fairly sandy in soil type, MRMS Flash response is
reaching 200-300 cfs/sqmi suggestive of localized flash flooding
may be starting soon. Hi-Res CAMs all generally show a core of
2-4" additional totals through 21z, mainly focused directly over
the Bay and nearby coastal areas, though some solutions hint of
higher localized totals of 5"+ as well, suggesting flash flooding
will remain possible into the afternoon hours across the Delmarva
Peninsula, Southern Maryland and the northern Neck of VA.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6_YOVvD65o7Ijq40qETmzOtIav92mqyLNb1lghxYAoYJ0ST4_2nEbsCdGsChgVp5-Z48O8FZnZU3QcvKuSMa9TqzXMY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38917573 38667525 38287505 37747541 37497564
37467600 37797669 38177699 38567702 38907660

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 22, 2026 18:01:52

AWUS01 KWNH 221801
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...North & Eastern OH...Western PA...Far Western
NY...Far Northern WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221800Z - 222300Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms capable of
1-1.5", suggest random intersections resulting in widely scattered
spots of 1.5-2.5". Low FFG (<2"/3hrs) and larger urban areas
suggest incidents of flash flooding are possible this afternoon
into evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows broad long-wave trough across the
Great Lakes with an upstream strengthening/digging shortwave
crossing Lake Michigan which is starting to result a developing
triple-point in central LP of MI as the main surface low in NW
Lake Huron continues to strengthen. A southern stream
wave/vorticity center is well defined across south-central OH
helping to direct the effective warm front from near CLE to ZZV
and UNI eastward with enhanced low level moisture and higher
Theta-E air pooled along it, with MLCAPEs reaching 2000 J/kg,
where warm conveyor belt moisture is also peaked around 1.3-1.5"
for TPW. Surface to boundary layer convergence from SW to SE
across the boundary has resulted in broad convective development
though cells updrafts are broadening, they remain widely spaced
with some hints of multiple north-south oriented bands.
Increased convergence near lake-breeze off Erie, further enhances
shower activity. Given the moisture and solid instability rates
of 1-1.5" are more likely, but totals will probably be in the 1"
range given forward propagation/cell motions eastward are
expected.

Upstream, initial cluster of thunderstorms over SE MI is sliding
into the slightly increased unstable air over north-central OH,
while further convergence along the cold front across
south-central MI into NE IND is starting to build overall as well.
Compared to the warm front, mid-level moisture is a bit less and
overall TPWs are closer to 1-1.25" but directional and speed
convergence may allow for cells to be comparable to the eastern
warm front band, but still similarly progressive and likely to
result in peak of 1" totals; so no one cell is likely to exceed
even the lower FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr. However, given the
increasing coverage and broadening updrafts intersecting
footprints from each round may allow for widely scattered spots of
1.5-2.5" by 00z and with 3hr FFG in the 1.5-2" range especially
along I-70 in central OH to W PA (~2/3hrs across N Ohio) incidents
of exceedance are considered possible this afternoon into evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!57BK0MC42KRlVZxL4NhL7XX9JpU-ovFItYT1XQaeCpEuColPVwMAaN6hwbXx_1lzuSXdDF5VwKb5i9iaWicukw2eNRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42607899 42237837 41297833 40787882 39067998
38988142 39398255 39898334 40788374 41398370
41718319 41558246 41838140 42168054 42278010

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 22, 2026 20:49:30

AWUS01 KWNH 222049
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-230215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...central Rockies into the High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222046Z - 230215Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms will be capable of isolated to
scattered flash flooding across the central Rockies into the
adjacent High Plains through the evening. Rainfall totals of 0.5
to 1.0 inches in 15-30 minutes with 1-2 inch totals are expected.

DISCUSSION...2030Z visible satellite and area radar imagery showed
widely scattered thunderstorms underway across northern NM into
eastern UT, western/central CO and southeastern WY into the
adjacent High Plains of WY/CO. The environment across the region
contained near average to 150 percent above average moisture per
blended TPW imagery from 19Z. MLCAPE was relatively weak over the
terrain, about 250-750 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis data and the 18Z
GJT sounding. Instability was higher but mostly capped across the
High Plains due to warm temperatures near 700 mb and insufficient
moisture in that layer. However, the Rockies were also situated
beneath a ridge centered along the CO/NM border with weak cell
motions of ~5 kt or less from northern NM into eastern UT and
central CO. Wind speeds and shear increase across southeastern WY
into eastern CO where greater capping currently exists, but a
narrow region of greater instability and weaker inhibition was
located along the Front Range into the Laramie Range where some
stronger and slower moving cells were observed.

Expectations are for continued thunderstorm development over the
next couple of hours with slow and erratic movement around the
ridge. In addition to slow movement, outflows and storm mergers
will likely contribute to briefly enhanced rainfall rates with
15-30 minute totals in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range. Given effective
bulk shear of 25-30 kt from southeastern WY into portions of
northeastern CO, better potential for cell organization will exist
across these regions but so does forward speed especially with any
congealing clusters of cells that should forward propagate,
limiting rainfall duration. Isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding will remain a possibility, especially should there be
overlap of slow moving cells with sensitive burn scars.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Zs5kwTXQeNzWCgqbkgYtAIc_2hyeCsnz91tEuty7eJq9cBJBlc8cfvuHYcqJU4eGJ1zU7x5BZKqX4Wib6Hyqgh5PwY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB...RIW...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42720586 42610469 42130407 40790382 39080421
37920438 36880488 36260618 36390794 37350961
38730992 40330926 41900765

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 29, 2026 06:11:18

AWUS01 KWNH 290534
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-291015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1138
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
133 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...eastern SD into southwestern MN and northwestern
IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290532Z - 291015Z

Summary...The potential for isolated flash flooding will exist
across portions of eastern SD into southwestern MN and
northwestern IA over the next 3-5 hours. Areas of training will
support hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches with 2 to 4 inch totals
(locally higher possible) through ~10 or 11 UTC.

Discussion...Radar imagery from 0515Z showed a small thunderstorm
cluster over eastern SD, about 40-60 miles SSE of Aberdeen. This
area of convection was likely elevated, forming on the cool side
of a quasi-stationary front which extended NNW through the
Dakotas. A 40-50 kt low level jet to the east of a south-central
SD surface low and southward extending through axis has increased
moisture in the 925-850 mb layer across eastern SD, eroding CIN
observed on the 00Z ABR sounding, beneath 700-500 lapse rates that
were about 7.0 to 7.5 C/km. Precipitable water values were 1.7
inches on the ABR sounding and MUCAPE was ~2500 J/kg, with
instability dropping off rapidly toward the east per RAP/SPC
mesoanalysis data.

The continued advection of low level moisture into eastern
SD/southwestern MN via ~40-50 kt of 850 mb flow from the S to SSW
should continue to expand higher instability downstream into
portions of southwestern MN through 10Z (forecast MUCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg). Additional erosion of CIN is expected over the
region which may allow for an expansion of the ongoing
thunderstorm cluster south of Aberdeen along with additional
development to the north/northeast. Mean steering flow should take
cells toward the east with potential for short term training.
However, if a larger and more organized cluster of thunderstorms
should form, it is expected to track southeastward, following
Corfidi vectors and the 1000-500 mb thickness orientation,
allowing for some potential for upshear training of cells.
Training will support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches along with
2-4 inch totals (locally higher possible), possibly resulting in
flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!50ok_py0H5cMwfG2UFx-iPz0bkXTimB5lGM9o2pO4O77mNsYo6y7m6UHINrhr8Z9Mc-rE3raWUC6PrUmXgcNI7sboJU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DMX...FSD...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45499769 45489682 45209568 44449408 43389340
42619381 42209474 42349631 42619726 43189815
43829882 44729899 45289848

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 29, 2026 06:27:22

AWUS01 KWNH 290627
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-291225-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1139
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...eastern ND into portions of central/northern MN
and northwestern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290625Z - 291225Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across eastern
ND into central/northern MN and northwestern WI through 12Z. Areas
of training could produce hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and 2-3
inch rainfall in 3 hours or less.

Discussion...Area radar imagery from 0610Z showed widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms over central and northern MN and near
the Red River of the North, about 10-20 miles north of Fargo. This
activity was elevated and light/disorganized in appearance due to
a lack of instability as noted on the 06Z SPC mesoanalysis. MUCAPE
was estimated to be 100-500 J/kg over much of central to northern
MN, but was a bit higher between 500-1000 J/kg along the ND/MN
border where reflectivity was stronger compared to locations to
the east. The small cluster of thunderstorms near the Red River
contained some degree of training with MRMS hourly rainfall
peaking 1 inch across northeastern Cass County as of 0610Z, and
was located downstream of a subtle mid/upper level vorticity max
over east-central ND.

The continued northward advection of low level moisture via 20-40
kt of 805 mb flow over the ND/SD/MN tri-state region is expected
to increase MUCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range from eastern ND
into parts of western/northern MN and up to 500 J/kg for eastern
MN into northwestern WI through 12Z. The increase in elevated
instability will coincide with pockets of eroded CIN, supporting
additional scattered shower/thunderstorm development through the
remainder of the night, with added forcing ahead of the eastward
tracking vorticity max over east-central ND. If cells can align
with the mean steering flow from west to east, training could
support hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and 2 to 3 in totals in 3
hours or less. These localized higher totals could support
isolated flash flooding through ~12Z, though due to ongoing
drought conditions, any impacts would likely be confined to urban
or other areas of poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6_5UAMKoQF5rcLkHR6L1748RBynyki-H5GG_KmXPgiqfhjvBKpGEJRxvDaIiOA86j3BDRLaNUFGDsxPFEP7N-veb3Wo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DLH...FGF...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48099593 47959359 47379141 45858940 44909033
44839240 45299511 46169718 46709802 47799778

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 29, 2026 13:16:50

AWUS01 KWNH 291316
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-291800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1140
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
915 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina & Coastal South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291314Z - 291800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will move slowly along the
coast and near a stationary front through the early afternoon.
Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr will result in axes of 2-4" of
rain with locally higher amounts. This may cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows
persistent moderate rain with embedded convective elements aligned
to the North Carolina/South Carolina coasts. This activity is
developing just ahead of a surface stationary front analyzed by
WPC, with additional convective development occurring along the
front itself, as well as a weakening trough/land breeze boundary.
PWs this morning as measured via regional UA soundings were above
the 90th percentile (2.28" at KMHX, 2.31" at CHS) with saturated
adiabatic lapse rates noted through the entire column depth.
Freezing levels as high as 14,000 ft are supporting warm rain
processes, and this is resulting in hourly rainfall measured via
MRMS as high as 2.5" in the strongest convective cores.

The HRRR is struggling to resolve the current activity this
morning, but the RRFS and 3kmNAM are initializing better and in
agreement that activity will continue to expand/intensify for the
next several hours. This will be driven by MLCAPE spreading inland
from the coast coincident with synoptic ascent within the
favorably placed RRQ of an upper jet streak. While the RAP
suggests there will be some impressive CINH across the Pee Dee
region, otherwise the coasts of NC/SC and much of eastern NC will
support rainfall rates for which the HREF suggests has a 20-40%
chance of exceeding 2"/hr. Mean 0-6km winds of just 5-10 kts (less
along the stationary front where storms may feature nearly 0 net
motion for a while) aligned to the boundary should allow for training/backbuilding, leading to rainfall of 2-4" with locally
higher amounts (10-30% for 5+").

FFG across this region is naturally elevated at 3-4"/3hrs, but
7-day rainfall across parts of the area has been above 300% of
normal leading to somewhat more vulnerable soils. The HREF and
REFS both suggest around a 30-40% chance of FFG exceedance in a
few areas, especially between the Crystal Coast, Downeast NC, and
the Tidewater Region. While in general there appears to be only an
isolated risk for flash flooding through the afternoon, it is this
area that appears to have the greatest risk for impacts.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_GSAqkSSGEHTc551Ax6ma5DqJ8RLAXnzQhABjnkETeRxVDwgl-OybFfaoD9EegErPtEaOI5ota_cqCFdJ-HcbDA1WGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36387695 36217604 36107570 35637537 35187544
34717619 34297706 33677807 33077904 32707983
32768003 33218003 33587957 34027923 34567936
34837953 35127980 35577988 35827961 36037895
36307788

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 29, 2026 15:40:30

AWUS01 KWNH 291540
FFGMPD
FLZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1141
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291538Z - 292130Z

Summary...Widespread showers and thunderstorms will advect onshore
the Atlantic Coast of Florida this morning before refocusing
inland/pinning on the Gulf breeze this afternoon. Rainfall rates
of 2-3"/hr are likely, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...GOES-E water vapor imagery this morning shows an
impressive plume of moisture surging northeast from the Gulf Coast
to along the Atlantic Seaboard. This moisture plume is being drawn
northward within the tail of a jet streak centered over eastern
Canada, and PWs measured via the morning UA soundings are above
the 90th percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology.
Farther east, a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) is
evident, beneath which impressive convective development has
occurred east of the Florida Peninsula. This activity is lifting
slowly northwestward on light (10-15 kts) 850mb flow, impinging
into the coast and then becoming enhanced along the frictional
convergence axis. Within the robust thermodynamics created via the
high PWs and MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg, MRMS hourly rainfall has been
as high as 1.75-2.0 inches along and east of the Gold Coast.

The high-res CAMs are struggling with the ongoing activity this
morning, creating lower than typical confidence in the convective
evolution through this aftn. However, impressive ascent driven via
diffluence in the tail of the jet streak aloft and within a weak
mid-level trough axis just west of the Peninsula, combined with
the more favorable environment beneath the TUTT, should produce
scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the aftn. Some of this
will be activity spreading onshore from the east, but additional
development is likely during the aftn along a weak surface trough
and then more impressively along the Gulf breeze which may become
pinned along the Sun Coast. Hourly rainfall above 2" is possible
(30-40% chance), which through repeating rounds (east) or
pinned/stalled storms (west) could result in 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts.

Much of South Florida has been in a drought recently, and 0-40cm
soil moisture is only in the 10th-30th percentile according to
NASA SPoRT. This has allowed FFG to be widespread of 3-4"/3hrs,
for which the exceedance probabilities are modest. However, the
widespread nature of heavy-rain producing cells could still
overwhelm soils, especially across urban areas, leading to
isolated instances of flash flooding through the aftn.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_YHLGr_2Jc6M2OQ76gUam7D6bN0oeO3krau7OsYYykWa-M7G_cG-yb_fMcscIkz9vnjPU21TCk1gWaUq9r6YHlYHxtI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28258062 28058029 27257985 26467975 25727991
25168039 25048094 25258128 25828178 26658240
27008256 27548273 28018287 28088265 27928244
27658221 27268189 26778143 26378111 26198082
26388062 26938061 27318084 27728105

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 29, 2026 18:14:42

AWUS01 KWNH 291814
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-CAZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1142
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Western/Northern Arizona, Far Southern Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291813Z - 300000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand in
coverage and then repeat from southwest to northeast through the
afternoon. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches may lead to
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E experimental Day-Cloud Phase RGB is
indicating a rapid uptick in glaciating convective clouds across
western and northern Arizona. This activity is blossoming in a
region of near-record PWs (measured via the 12Z UA sounding at PSR
of 1.69 inches) overlapping impressive MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
within the morning CINH erosion to create robust thermodynamics
supportive of heavy rain. The monsoon ridge to the east and an
amplifying trough to the west is pinching the region as well,
allowing impressive 700-500mb LPW to surge northward, further
enhancing the environment. Despite convective development just now
beginning, MRMS hourly rainfall has already exceeded 0.75" in a
few streaks, further indicative of the impressive environment.

The high-res CAMs are a bit slow to capture the ongoing
development, so activity through the aftn is expected to be more
robust than the current CAM suggestions. As weak impulses embedded
within the flow transit overhead the region and tap into the
ethermodynamics, additional convection should rapidly develop, and
widespread thunderstorms are expected more rapidly than the CAMs
indicate. When that happens, the HREF, REFS, and UA WRF all
suggest rainfall rates will exceed 0.5"/hr at times, and may reach
1"/hr. The limiting factor to flash flood impacts will be that the
mean storm motions should be relatively progressive to the
northeast at 15-20 kts, but modest shear around 20 kts and
widespread storms may allow for some mergers/collisions as well as
repeating rounds to enhance the total rainfall. This is reflected
by HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities reaching 10-25% for 2"
in the next 6 hours.

Much of this region has been dry recently, although there have
been pockets of 7-day rainfall across the Slot Canyon region of
Utah, as well as the Mogollon Rim and Low Deserts of AZ, above
300% of normal. However, the natural vulnerability of this region
due to soils and terrain have maintained 1-hr FFG that is
generally 0.75-1.0 inches, which may be exceeded. While the
greatest risk will be across urban areas, burn scars, slot
canyons, and dry washes, any location that receives multiple
rounds of heavy rain through the evening may experience flash
flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Bxy1a-vGKjQbBKvPFeKCcgSR985_Apfna-1PGGZ0GmB_eU4VkKohinDuNsR7AY6pJefcf1FryHiVNq4wky1fSXv0Ao$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37751123 37411058 36571020 35641009 35061042
34141104 32671230 32121298 32111369 32511435
33361434 34341421 35121397 36811316 37351269
37751187

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 29, 2026 19:25:52

AWUS01 KWNH 291925
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1143
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Northern & Central UT...Southwest WY...Northwest CO...East-Central NV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291925Z - 300100Z

SUMMARY...Initial round resulted in quick .3-.6" but additional
upstream thunderstorms are expanding with favorable back-building
along favored terrain to support repeating opportunities over the
next few hours. Intersections of widely scattered spots of 1"+
totals due to multiple rounds poses a low-end risk of localized
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Elongated/shearing stronger shortwave feature
continues to slide northeast into confluent flow across western WY
along the right entrance of well defined 70-80kt 250mb jet. So
strong dynamics aloft along with unstable air resulted in strong
convective line and scattered thunderstorms that have diminished
in coverage and intensity moving into more stable environment
across central WY. However, regional observations note a solid
swath of .25 to .5" totals across N Utah with localized .6-.7"
concentrated with the stronger cells that crossed from S Tooele
across Salt Lake into W Summit county. GOES-E WV shows broader
positive oriented longer wave trough remains upstream with another
jet streak crossing CA into NV at this time. This is further
enhancing left exit divergence to the right entrance region
providing strong vertical ascent across far E central NV into
northern UT. Combine this with a remaining MLCAPE pool of
750-1000 J/kg across that area, additional development upstream is
starting to occur across White Pine to W Tooele county. The more
anomalous element remains the available deep layer moisture that
had filtered northward over the past few days with lower
Valley/Salt Flat Total PWats in excess of 1.25" and .75-1" through
the western and central mountains of Utah.

The overall configuration of the jet is suggestive of an 850mb
wave to develop across west-southwest UT with weak but sufficient
south to southwest confluent 15-20kt flow along and downstream.
This flow is expected to maintain through the evening and support
an environment for redevelopment along the favored upslope. While
deep layer flow is very strong across N UT, steering is reduced
further south and fairly unidirectional (minus the low level confluence/convergence) to suggest convective that can back-build
will have potential for repeating or training elements; though
mean flow will still be quick enough for residency for higher
overall totals like the initial round; it is the potential for 2
or 3 rounds of .25-.5" that may result in localized spots of 1"+
(max 1.25-1.33") in 3-6hrs, especially upwind across UT, as
downstream stability increases through NW CO/SW WY. As such, a
low-end risk of localized flash flooding will be possible through
the evening given FFG values in that similar range at the 3-6hr
time periods.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-hE3G_WZywP1fPNg63wGyr-QKEn5dbJ4iNjMgp9PtE8p4xK0TAGL7YVsMujSm1ssYhYJw4p27gJ3smqMQoE70GpCrQ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...LKN...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41740987 41480856 40510816 39550859 38850943
38151084 37611261 37871354 38461388 38761411
39421493 40271430 41051261 41551100

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 29, 2026 20:55:34

AWUS01 KWNH 292055
FFGMPD
AZZ000-300245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1144
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
454 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292100Z - 300245Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving cells capable of 1-1.5"/hr rates
may pose localized flash flooding risk through night-fall.

DISCUSSION...A favorable environment for slow moving monsoon
thunderstorms is starting to convectively initiate over southeast
AZ. GOES-E WV shows far western extension of large scale ridge
exists across the Rio Grande into northern Old Mexico while strong
northern stream ahead of deepening trough over the Northwest
provides solid sub-tropical return flow across the Southern
Deserts of AZ. The 700-500mb flow is weakly confluent over far SE
AZ, while west-southwest to westerly low level flow continues to
respond and deepen moisture flow out of the deserts toward the
I-19/I-10 corridor. Currently VWP has 5-10kts of westerly flow
but will continue to increase toward 15-20kt throughout the late
evening. Surface Tds in the lower to upper 50s from east to west
will continue to steadily increase as well as southeast edge of
the subtropical moisture stream as presented by the CIRA LPW at
700-500mb. Overall totals will increase by .25 to .33" in spots
reaching 1.5" values toward Tuscon while broad 1.25-1.33" to the
NM/AZ border. Core of highest unstable air remains over the Sun
Valley with values of 1500-2000 J/kg, though Axis extends
southward with gradient of 1000-1500 J/kg along I-19 providing
ample vertical updraft strength.

Current visible imagery shows initial convective initiation across
the typical mountain circulation ranges/peaks across Cochise and
Santa Cruz county into far E Pima and S Graham. As these mature,
sub-cloud evaporation should help as cores mature and become
efficient for 1-1.5"/hr rates. These will remain localized and
with very weak 700-500mb flow, may have sufficient residency for
totals of 1.5"+. This focused but widely scattered nature may
have some increasing clustering toward late evening, but still
should result in localized isolated to widely scattered incidents
of flash flooding through 02z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8oDWZZvVMaH-HM_4RrKeYOwhj8nQ--92v_A8DPqjdvieHW59u5kaEpHmY-6nhlsE7yB7SwHDxocmRd-LhuqHdLbKac8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34361023 34210937 33250937 31770910 31290927
31271024 31321127 31691224 32311245 33411240
33981197 34241105

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 29, 2026 23:42:50

AWUS01 KWNH 292342
FFGMPD
COZ000-UTZ000-300530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1145
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
741 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...North-central & Eastern Utah...Northwest &
West-Central Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292345Z - 300530Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered potential for localized flash flooding
continues through the early overnight period as additional rounds
of storms capable of .5"/hr and additional 1" locally.

DISCUSSION...Strong dynamic setup remains and will likely continue
to force and/or maintain clusters of thunderstorms even as
remaining instability wanes or is exhausted. The early
morning/afternoon shortwave over WY has nearly sheared into the
confluent downstream zone into the Dakotas, though ongoing
convective line across northwest CO is along the right
entrance/influence of that exiting wave to help maintain.
However, convectively reinforced shortwave energy is lifting
northeast around the NW edge of the deep layer ridge further
south; crossing the Four Corners in the next hour or so. DPVA
ascent of this southwesterly low level confluent flow through
remaining conditionally unstable air (~1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE)
across south-central to east-central UT is aligned with deep layer
moisture flux stream that is reaching 1.25" of TPW. Clusters
will maintain solid vertical strength through southeast UT into W
CO and likely intersect the weakening outflow boundary. The convergence/confluence to the boundary and increasingly
unidirectional southwesterly flow (generally parallel to the
boundary) should aid the potential for random intersection of repeating/training remaining thunderstorms as well as, aligning
intersection with prior rainfall footprints across W/NW CO. Rates
of .5"/hr and potential for repeating suggests a streak or two of
up to an additional 1" is possible through the early overnight
period from SE UT into NW/west-central CO. Given lower FFG and
rugged terrain, potential for run-off suggests an isolated
incident of flash flooding remains possible.

Further northwest across north-central UT...
The connecting mid-level deformation zone between the exiting wave
and the approaching northern stream shortwave/jet streak
developing across NV along with entrapped deep layer moisture
through west-central UT (up to 1.3" TPW) and pockets of 1500 J/kg
of MUCAPE continue to support stronger clusters across Juab to
Utah/Sanpete counties. This stronger clusters could pose intense short-term/sub-hourly totals, however deep layer steering flow
continues to be very strong (40-45kts) along the southern edge of
the northern jet stream to limit overall totals to .5-.75" but
given solid upstream forcing, there will continue to be potential
for multiple rounds with localized streak up to 1" perhaps even
overlapping with .75-1" totals from earlier rounds. Given
short-term intensity, localized high run-off still poses isolated
to widely scattered incident or two of flash flooding through the
early overnight period here too.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9IQLAXs1Eg7SWYbRfGsPE-x8BKrHtS7oA6VvOYN_gx1uDmtoYQ7ZES2lk9hVX2hu9e3Xa02e-ffl_blSaSn0zvFLmTc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40830762 40360682 39400683 38500797 37910860
37100982 37071099 37161202 38091124 39131154
39301336 39861372 40571227 40821059

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 30, 2026 00:18:00

AWUS01 KWNH 300017
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-300500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1146
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Arizona...Northwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300015Z - 300500Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding risk continues, particularly
along upstream, unstable edges of older outflow boundaries.
Focused 1-1.5"/hr totals remain possible through early overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite trends show a convectively reinforced
shortwave is amplifying across the eastern San Francisco Plateau
lifting toward the Four Corners into SE UT/SW CO. Along the SW
upwind edge, low level moist, unstable inflow from the Desert
Valley flow is lifting up the Mogollon Rim and intersecting with
initial convective outflow boundaries to support recently
reinvigorated convection from Yavapai through N Gila with some
further development through S Navajo/Apache counties. RAP
analysis suggest remaining pocket of enhanced unstable air with
MLCAPEs of 2000-2500 J/kg across this region and given 10-15kts of
inflow countered by 15-20kts of SW to NE cell motions; favorable
back-building may result in localized stationary or slow motions
allowing for some increased residency. Total moisture in the
upper 50s/low 60s and totals of 1.25-1.4" should allow for
localize rates of 1-1.5"/hr and therefore spots of 1.5-2" are not
completely out of the question; proximity to Rim slopes and
naturally lower FFG (limited soil conditions) would promote solid
run-off and localized flash flooding risk with slow weakening as
instability is exhausted or diurnal waning.

Further east into NM, instability is not as high given later
arrival of shallower moisture/higher theta-E air; however, MUCAPEs
of 1000-1500 J/kg are supporting scattered stronger updrafts
supported by the dPVA from the shortwave lifting northeast and
convergence from outflow and general 850-700mb confluence along
the NW edge of the synoptic ridge over S NM attm. As such,
ongoing clusters can maintain but should be more widely scattered
and may be quicker moving toward the north and northeast as the
wave exits. Still naturally lower FFG over NW NM, and rates to
1"/hr could still result in a possible low-end flash flooding
concern though early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4xcYXEcuRCVB-XMmOZ6MvRfzqAWM5DocPT-0_JXSInVw4ke_xJ9DB7SNASG-wK9uDiJ8mwEkviZa1rb9Y0HstC5468c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36640779 36310668 35430655 34590685 33920817
33880967 33921034 34181244 34321303 35021255
35811121 36121025

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 30, 2026 01:40:02

AWUS01 KWNH 300139
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-300730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1147
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
939 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Northern South Dakota...ext Southern North
Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300140Z - 300730Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/splitting supercells will increase in
coverage as shortwave approaches expanding into a larger west to
east complex with rates up to 1.75"/hr & localized totals of 2-4"
resulting in possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...01z surface analysis continues to show an elongated
stationary front from a surface low north of the Black Hills along
I-90 to another surface low south of PIR and continuing into SW
MN. Moisture remains pooled along the boundary and through the
Missouri River Valley, but deeper low to mid-level moisture exists
across central MN and is advecting east to west under confluent
flow to pool into a broader area of 1.75+ Total PWat east of
surface pressure trof in the Missouri River Valley east of a
developing 850mb low. This low will continue to strengthen as a
well defined but fast moving shortwave crosses out of E WY into
the Dakotas in the next few hours. Deep layer convergence along
that north-south boundary north of the stationary front provided
sufficient ascent to break through weaker capping to utilize
modest 2500 J/kg conditionally unstable air north of the boundary
in the deeper moisture. Proximity to the strong jet aloft but
with enhancing height-falls approaching supports strong effective
bulk shear into the 50-55kt range to support supercell structures
initially. The low level confluence from the east, bent Bunker's
Right moving cell propagation vectors to be well reduced and
therefore propagation has been limited. This resulted in a
localized cell to slow accumulate rainfall totals in SE Walworth
county toward 2-3" and MRMS FLASH (while slightly hail
contaminated), still resulted in pocket of 200-400 cfs/sq. mi.
generally suggestive of a local flooding concern, but was very
small in scale. However, that moisture/hail loading into the
updrafts has recently resulted in some splitting of cells, further
reducing local residency.

However, with the approach of the height-falls is a leading strong
shortwave across E WY that also has a favorable outflow channel to
the northeast in a jet streak denoted in GOES-E WV as cirrus
shield with transverse banding across SE MT into ND. This will
further provide cyclogenesis and direct circulation enhancement to
the frontal zone and strengthen LLJ with SE to NE confluence along
the boundary bringing moisture flux up to bring PWat values over
2" supporting further rates up to 1.75-2"/hr as individual cell(s)
begin to cluster/grow upscale into a complex. RAP forecast
suggests a strong downslope westerly wind burst will surge across
SW SD/NE NEB further aiding to cyclogenesis in the left rotor with
850-700mb flow strengthening to 15-25kts and expanding the deep
layer moisture flux convergence west to east. While not generally
parallel to the strengthening deep layer steering flow, sufficient
bulk shear will continue to support rotating updrafts and reduce
forward motions even hinting at potential for repeating axis
across northern South Dakota. Given this streak(s) of 2-3" with
isolated spot or two of 4" are becoming increasingly possible.

While the region has slightly drier than normal upper soil
conditions (0-40cm per NASA SPoRT LIS RSM product), Hourly FFG
values of 1-1.5" are mixed in with 2-2.5" spots east of 100W;
becoming 1.5-2" and 2.5-3" for the 3 hour range. Given the
potential for 2-3" and spots of 4", localized exceedance is
becoming increasingly possible within/along the 850-700mb shear
axis suggesting localized flash flooding will be possible through
the early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!438bGfqxvjWboJFq8YUIGqf_AuBac8Lwt33BgycFF7W84tsFFUi0cNWyc54-5XxGWVFgXBOQZhnhudlsxk9tuzFLMUs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 46349900 45659812 44849831 44659947 44630131
44870256 45610270 46240138

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 30, 2026 03:17:38

AWUS01 KWNH 300317
FFGMPD
AZZ000-300800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1116 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...southern/central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300315Z - 300800Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will continue for
portions of southern to central AZ over the next 3-5 hours,
although expectations are for a waning trend in convective vigor
into the night.

DISCUSSION...03Z infrared satellite and radar imagery showed an
outflow boundary arcing from Gila to northwestern Pinal and
west-central Pima counties, advancing west and northwest, ahead of
lingering monsoonal convection to its south and east. The outflow
has been associated with an increase in low level moisture,
resulting in a temporary increase in near surface-based
instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.0-8.0 C/km.
As cells have propagated west to north with the outflow boundary's
movement, MRMS has shown hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and
15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 02Z showed 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in
place over south-central to central AZ with varying degrees of
convective inhibition, but overall cloud top trends have shown
warming across Pima County while cooling from northeastern Pinal
into Gila counties. With increasing inhibition and slowing of the
outflow boundary's speed, low level forcing for ascent appears to
be lessening. However, satellite and radar trends suggest
additional convective development appears most likely into
portions of eastern Maricopa, southern Yavapai and northern Gila
counties as the northern portion of the outflow continues to
advance in the direction of ongoing thunderstorms over Yavapai
County. 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected with
the strongest cells and slow cell movement could yield up to about
2 inches of additional total rainfall for isolated locations.
Weakening of cells is expected in the 06-08Z time frame which
should reduce or possibly end the remaining flash flood threat
across AZ.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!90YTRgL0TJMaBW-MzQ5hgCntIjQVcMncTDsFdTXX7B4AtfGEHMLmW-ZCdodifFMYVBZeYmdN47nqZ4VqSQq5Eo91WpA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35141153 35011060 34550963 33740989 32951057
31571174 31641255 31951316 33051303 34231301
34911257

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 30, 2026 22:39:54

AWUS01 KWNH 302239
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-310400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1152
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
638 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...Southern and Central Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302240Z - 310400Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving monsoon thunderstorms will have potential
for clustering and localized rates to 1-1.5"/hr and isolated
totals to 2".

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and regional RADAR mosaic depict a few
axes of convective initiation along the outer periphery of the
deeper layer moisture gradients with the more vigorous across La
Paz into S Mohave county where there is a broad field of cu
indicative of the higher instability. Gulf of California moisture
has pooled through the Lower Colorado into the deserts with high
60s even low 70s Tds across, though mid-level higher capping in
far SW AZ is slightly cooler aloft where the activation and cu
field exists with 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE; with the moisture and
instability axis starting to angle SW to NE across the Sun Valley
into the central Mogollon Rim toward the confluent northern stream
from the coastal Californian Pacific and the south to
southeasterly flow returning out of NW Mexico around the edge of
the ridge.

An MCV from last night's complex over Sonora continues to slowly
drift west toward the Gulf coast, but a northward
confluence/convergence band extends into W Pima county where
convergence and slightly weak anticyclonic curvature into the moisture/instability axis has further maximized moisture
convergence for a few Tcu/CBs in a smaller cu field. A few
isolated thunderstorms along higher mountain ridges in Cochise
county and far SW NM, will continue to advance westward as well;
but strengthening southerly low level flow is expected to help
further expand convective activity into clusters across S central
and West-central AZ through the early overnight. Given total
PWats of 1.75" and 10-15kts increasing toward 20kts, moisture flux
should allow for efficient rainfall with rates up to 1.5"/hr.
Deep layer steering is still weak in the broad area between
streams, at 5-10kts generally convergent to suggest some possible
mergers or at least colliding outflow boundaries to perpetuate new
development. As such, isolated to widely scattered cells may
result in localized 2" totals. Still, even 30 minute intense
rates with .5-1" totals may still result in localized flash
flooding for the remainder of the evening into the early overnight
period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8tQDitV1m9QUjj9AedeZSprgBr5fcCbgjT9Wn8REZ0EM1E_Rwjf63vG6jhjqokAZ05BS4AAzPZJIouwZ-Z2XSxpzQcc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35331208 34271084 33780958 32870961 31550920
31180969 31161029 31301170 31621242 31801292
32621326 33161367 33781448 34611403 35261340

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 30, 2026 23:42:00

AWUS01 KWNH 302341
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-310530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1153
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
740 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Utah...Western Colorado...Northwest New Mexico...Northeast Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302345Z - 310530Z

SUMMARY...Scattered incidents of flash flooding remain possible
though early overnight period as scattered to numerous
thunderstorms cross the Four Corners with sub-hourly .5-1" totals.
A few random repeats may allow for isolated totals to 1.5".

DISCUSSION...GOES-E/W WV suite continues to present a very dynamic
environment across the Intermountain west as upstream shortwave is
digging into a more closed low over central coast of California
with broadening shortwave ridging (and diffluence) across UT/N AZ
while much of CO remains in the expanding right entrance region of
the exiting stronger 90+kt jet. All of which provides broad scale
ascent pattern across the Four Corners to maintain stronger
embedded thunderstorms. Combined with return
moisture/instability out of the low deserts of AZ through the San
Francisco Plateau ahead of a developing shortwave to help
accelerate surface to mid-level southwesterly moisture flux across
the area. As such, GOES-E 10.3um EIR and Visible loop shows
numerous lines of active cores and overshooting tops within
generally WSW to ENE bands across central UT into central CO;
southern UT into S CO and more scattered/fragmented cores across
NE AZ into NW NM. Strong bulk shear is allowing for stronger,
rotating updrafts capable of further moisture flux convergence
into the bases for efficient low level rainfall production. Above
normal (95th percentile) moisture with broad area of 1-1.25" in
lower terrain and .75-1" across the mid-sized ranges provide ample
moisture. However, the higher shear comes at a loss of residency
for any given cells, but sub-hourly totals of .5-.1" remain
possible given updrafts strength via remaining broad area of 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE, that will slowly diminish with loss of heating.
Though orientation of cells with deep unidirectional steering flow
may promote random repeating for very spotty 1.5" totals.

Recent daily cycles of scattered thunderstorms have further
reduced the already naturally low FFG values across the region
with most below 1"/hr and less than 1.5"/3hrs, not to mention
naturally complex terrain/steep slopes, narrow canyons, and
arroyos to help channel the high runoff. As such scattered
incidents of flash flooding remain possible through the early
overnight period across the Four Corners states.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!54W-w1FuzPIGpuB1_old-7de7hVG4DV0hZ5l-rkkfF3F6CSGL8mJvoVrPCSvH-m4PXjM7f0-xa_8LzneaGB3274Y9Q8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40880899 40780784 40220703 39080639 37920700
36980665 35910712 34440820 33960971 34901103
37231174 39131159 40041183 40721067

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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