ACUS11 KWNS 262154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262153
ALZ000-MSZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Mississippi into central
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 262153Z - 270000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible this evening with a
cluster of thunderstorms ongoing across MS and AL. Further
clustering is expected as storms move south/southeast.

DISCUSSION...As of 2150 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
of strong to severe storms ongoing near the MS/AL border. Over the
last hour, consolidating outflows have allowed for additional storm
development to take place, bolstering convective intensity within
the ongoing cluster. The warm and very humid air mass remains
strongly unstable ahead of these storms and should continue to
maintain their intensity into this evening. Further aided by weak
ascent at the base of a broad upper trough, storm coverage is likely
to increase over the next couple of hours given little inhibition.
Flow aloft remains weak which will support only modest storm
organizational and a multicellular mode.

Expectations are for outflow to continue to consolidate as it moves south/southeast across eastern MS into central/southern AL. High
PWATs above 2.5 inches will support water-loaded downdrafts within
the more intense cores, potentially capable of occasional damaging
gusts. The primary limiting factor remains to be the modest
deep-layer shear. This should limit storm organization with only
intermittent intensification expected. While an isolated severe risk
is possible this evening a watch appears unlikely at this time.

..Lyons/Smith.. 08/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_921JlPF8mUypQrSp9wSb2BpF4qOJjp26OWvRSWx2JchyNeDJ7brGApIbAVrcdPZdpRYQTE5E7gV7aCZIDFrJxHMOGU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33818816 33848698 33328605 32578585 31358656 31338728
31458812 31648867 32098948 32398980 32739002 32969014
33228989 33818816

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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