WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 037
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 28.2N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 27.9N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 27.7N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.1N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 123.0E. 27AUG26. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271200Z IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z,
280900Z AND 281500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (TWENTY) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W
(ETAU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

From WDPN31:

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 17W WILL ACCELERATE, DOUBLING ITS TRANSLATION
SPEED TO 12 KTS BY TAU 24, AS IT IS CAPTURED BY AN ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED SOUTH OF MONGOLIA. THIS STEERING MECHANISM WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, LEADING TO A LANDFALL OVER
OR NEAR WENZHOU, CHINA, AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END TYPHOON.
WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS JUST OVER 12 HOURS REMAINING OVER WARM OCEAN
WATERS, THE COMBINATION OF VWS INCREASING TO 25-35 KTS AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CHINA. THIS RAPID DECAY WILL CONTINUE ONCE INLAND, WITH
DISSIPATION PREDICTED BY TAU 36. AS TY 17W APPROACHES LANDFALL, THE
OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL CONTRACT DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND PERSISTENT VWS.

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