ACUS11 KWNS 271651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271651
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-271845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern New
York...northeast Pennsylvania...southwest Vermont...and western
Massachusetts

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271651Z - 271845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather is expected to increase by
18-20Z. The predominant hazard will be damaging wind gusts, with
marginally severe hail and a brief tornado or two also possible. A
severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of early-day showers and thunderstorms now
shifting east of I-81 northeast of Syracuse, visible satellite
imagery indicates deepening cumulus development over the Finger
Lakes into north-central PA. There, cloud breaks have allowed for
greater air mass destabilization to occur with steepening low-level
lapse rates.

While specific details regarding thunderstorm evolution remain
uncertain, recent model guidance indicates a gradual increase in
storm coverage and intensity over the next 2-3 hours from west to
east across the region amidst a warming boundary layer with MLCAPE
increasing to 1000-1500+ J/kg. A belt of enhanced (30-35 kt)
westerly mid-level flow observed by the 12Z Buffalo and Pittsburgh
soundings and current VWPs will yield sufficient vertical shear for
some storm organization, including bowing and transient supercell
structures. The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts, which
will be most likely in areas that see stronger heating and the
resultant steepening of low-level lapse rates. Marginally severe
hail also appears possible. The greatest potential for a tornado or
two will exist with any supercell structures in the Hudson Valley,
where backed surface winds will yield a corridor of stronger
low-level shear.

..Mead/Mosier.. 08/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9vGa-6jV8DVhQ7Uh1Pp94VvlrMQ1kUoA2wWEWSW_hkxZ4h5co1EQM0CqR3F_mR5uR2iquiXAt9HDPvZR9igIt2AVmqs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 41447693 42027708 42557692 43047635 43877500 44147411
44147369 43967336 43237307 42277308 42067366 41547492
41217577 41107635 41237675 41447693

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)