ACUS11 KWNS 271752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271752
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-271945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...south-central and southeast Pennsylvania into the
West Virginia Panhandle...northern Virginia...and portions of
Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271752Z - 271945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging
wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado is
expected to increase between 19-21Z. A severe thunderstorm watch is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates deepening cumulus
along the high terrain from the WV Panhandle and northern VA into
portions of south-central PA amidst a warming and destabilizing
boundary layer with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, per latest objective
analysis. Continued daytime heating coupled with the glancing
influence of a subtle disturbance passing near and to the southeast
of the area is expected to support a gradual increase in
thunderstorms across the discussion area over the next 2-3 hours.

The degree of instability combined with around 30 kt of deep-layer
shear will support some storm organization, including possible
supercell and/or bowing structures, with the primary hazard being
damaging wind gusts as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen.
Marginally severe hail is also possible, especially with any
supercells that may evolve. A conditional brief tornado threat may
materialize, particularly over northeast MD into far southeast PA,
with storms developing along or favorably interacting with an
outflow boundary associated with ongoing storms over NJ, where
low-level shear may be locally enhanced.

..Mead/Mosier.. 08/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6oFl8-iLp5CZXLDmYv8HEAPz3Ee2MMKUSS5chvmXcVfQooDYHS5SJAHaiby38OKjApaZpDYngDajv6GsIEJJPm6w6oM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39077875 39737844 40637732 40627690 40387647 39907632
39407623 38477666 38207758 38277862 39077875

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)