ACUS11 KWNS 271830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271829
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-272030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...northern and
central Delaware...southeast New York...and southwest Connecticut

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630...

Valid 271829Z - 272030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather continues across the watch
area with the greatest threat in New Jersey.

DISCUSSION...Volumetric radar data shows intense thunderstorms
ongoing over northern and southwestern portions of NJ as of 1820Z.
Some supercell characteristics have been observed with these storms,
with wind damage reported with the southern cluster of storms. The
inflow air mass to these storms over eastern NJ is warm and quite
moist with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Additionally, the current KDIX
VWP is sampling a vertically veering wind profile with around 35 kt
of deep-layer shear, which will continue to promote embedded
supercell structures given the moist, unstable environment. In the
near term, the greatest tornado risk appears to exist with the storm
over Monmouth County, NJ with the storms over southern NJ being more
outflow dominant. Otherwise, the primary hazard appears to be
damaging wind gusts with the ongoing activity.

..Mead.. 08/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7JKxDGYgC7Yz236kzSDNP8KKhqHmopwgkWSoT1g-Z7Q1Pd6XiO-DJDlN5g_jIAtgKUhjCZEoOGaX4LBYiWPHG0ERebc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON 39647567 40097533 40587459 40627394 39867405 39217460
39087484 39247549 39647567

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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