ACUS11 KWNS 272022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272022
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-272215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern NY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...

Valid 272022Z - 272215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
continues.

SUMMARY...Through 22-23Z, the greatest severe weather threat is
expected to spread east from the eastern Finger Lakes and vicinity
toward the Hudson Valley/Capital District. Damaging winds will
remain the primary hazard, with marginally severe hail and a brief
tornado or two also possible.

DISCUSSION...Despite considerable cloudiness, which has slowed more
robust air mass destabilization, broken bands of semi-discrete
storms have evolved over portions of central NY, with the most
intense storms extending from north of Binghamton to northeast of
Utica as of 2015Z. That activity is occurring within a kinematic
environment featuring 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, per current KBGM
VWP.

Latest model guidance suggests that storms will continue to
intensify over the next 1-3 hours while progressing toward the
Hudson Valley/Capital District. However, visible satellite imagery
shows the presence of wave-type clouds over the Catskills, which are
indicative of some degree of stability. On the condition that
sufficient instability exists, locally backed surface winds and
resultant stronger low-level shear evident in the KENX VWP (compared
to KBGM) may support an increased supercell risk late this
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will remain the predominant hazard,
though marginally severe hail and a brief tornado or two are also
possible.

..Mead.. 08/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5rvzQBs6b2lxE8du8B-MPb1FmQug-rP3UQ5m1v-co63Bd7aqIrEw1tiEfuu1dmkPn4hYl7JFmFiRILP5AB_zdHoc--Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 42767538 43487495 43607440 43577334 43307334 42727328
42147348 42087388 42087466 42197499 42767538

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at [email protected] and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)