ACUS11 KWNS 272233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272233
NEZ000-SDZ000-272330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern South Dakota and central
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633...

Valid 272233Z - 272330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells will remain capable of large to
very large hail this evening. With time, upscale growth into a
cluster could promote an increasing risk for severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...As of 2230 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
of well-developed supercells ongoing over far southern SD and
north-central NE. 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of northwesterly
deep-layer shear should continue to promote supercell structures
with strong updrafts. Steep mid-level lapse rates (8-9 C/km) and 500
mb temps of -10 to -11C will support hail with these storms. Some
hail could be 2+ inches in diameter, especially with the more
discrete storms on the western end of the ongoing cluster.

Numerous storm interactions with storm splits are being observed
over Cherry County, NE and far southern SD. Continued clustering and
upscale growth appear likely over the next couple of hours and is
also supported by short term model guidance. Further upscale growth,
the strongly buoyant environment and sufficient deep-layer shear may
favor an increasing risk of damaging gusts. A few gusts of 75+ mph
are possible over central and possibly southern NE later this
evening if a sufficiently strong cold pool is able to become
established.

..Lyons.. 08/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!79NdmHrdT0ycgrJuiaPgs_gxY40r871NjUbjxDlAl3JICbcK_dnd5emVjmwK1h7j65vEVfT6nRMofpsjqQVqAERFlsw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 43070341 43610083 42860025 42159987 41899986 41780026
41570114 41520201 41580234 41810270 42050311 43070341

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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