ACUS11 KWNS 272306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272306
MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-280030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...Hudson Valley into parts of southern New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...

Valid 272306Z - 280030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and a conditional brief tornado
threat will continue into early evening. Storms will gradually
weaken east of the Hudson Valley. No additional watches are
expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 2 hours, marginal supercell structures
have generally evolved into small linear segments. The impacts of a
less unstable airmass to the east and outflow from the south have
likely contributed to a modest decrease in storm organization. The
strongest activity in the Hudson Valley vicinity will still be
capable of isolated wind damage into early evening. A brief tornado
remains possible given some SRH enhancement on the KENX VAD, though
low-level thermodynamics have limited mesocyclone intensity late
this afternoon. With time, a gradual weakening trends is likely to
be observed as storms move into southern New England. Additional
watches are not expected this evening.

..Wendt.. 08/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9odEyv6fxSXMoNZ-339MoVhf3Si6m-FYEA3P3VjysE5BWyqYTCYoybXKOjkKLZXOFb2P0rqRoYETYpBSt8vIksSt5Ws$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 41387616 43187398 43397317 43317273 42807264 41987276
41837333 41207582 41387616

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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