ACUS11 KWNS 280003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280003
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-280100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...central Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634...

Valid 280003Z - 280100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634
continues.

SUMMARY...High-based shower and thunderstorm activity will remain
capable of strong to severe gusts this evening.

DISCUSSION...Across WW634, widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms were ongoing this evening over much of central MT. The
more robust of these clusters (near the Great Falls vicinity) have
produced occasional measured severe gusts over the last 90 min. The
overall environment remains very supportive of strong downdrafts
across much of central MT owing to steep low-level lapse rates (8-9
C/km) and high cloud bases above 3 km. While instability remains
modest (500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) surface temperatures in the upper
80s and low 90s should be sufficient to maintain the ongoing storms
as they move east/northeast this evening. Severe gust potential
appears maximized near the aforementioned established clusters of
storms, but any coherent downdraft will likely be capable of strong
to severe gusts this evening.

..Lyons.. 08/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8nwtOdokOFVc2T-__wJvpqTPAClpm3Pms1DZJFtg9GwsrwIcu27Nb1_Nst_DnNtWq8v_wD8BnI0LRHBRR2h5K3r3ALg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON 47200842 45990743 45640755 45220816 45060874 44731037
44751222 45221288 48941221 48970929 47200842

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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