ACUS11 KWNS 280247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280246
KSZ000-NEZ000-280415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633...635...

Valid 280246Z - 280415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633, 635
continues.

SUMMARY...A bowing complex of thunderstorms will continue to pose a
risk for severe wind gusts and some hail this evening. It is unclear
how long the complex will persist, but the environment is likely to
remain favorable for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...As of 0245 UTC, central Plains radar imagery showed a well-organized bowing complex moving southward across NE and
approaching the KS border. This complex has a history of severe wind
gusts and is maintaining overall intensity. The environment
downstream remains favorable for severe gusts with large buoyancy
and 40+ kt of northwesterly effective shear. This suggests the
complex may remain capable of severe gusts for several more hours.
Thus, the severe risk continues across WW633 and 635.

More supercellular activity has also matured along the western flank
of the complex in the last hour or two. As the low-level jet (30-40
kt) is forecast to increase tonight, additional upshear development
is possible with some risk for large hail of 1-2 inches in the most
intense cores given 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and increasingly strong
veering wind profiles with height.

..Lyons.. 08/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8X56dT0-iAgz5AO76d3gz_7QvGIuQdw7Viw2ndUAC9xKwi4luKPQjNC85fyjMGjCkTbQqRa7ybIuftm8Uv96Vc7XPOs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 41690196 41380126 41290013 41149968 39269857 39110008
39170122 39430158 40530197 41690196

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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