ACUS11 KWNS 280438
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280437
KSZ000-NEZ000-280600-

Mesoscale Discussion 2161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...portions of northwest and west-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 635...

Valid 280437Z - 280600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 635
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts will remain possible with
the small bowing complex moving southward tonight. How long the
complex remains severe is uncertain, but an isolated wind risk may
persist for a few more hours. A downstream watch is not expected,
but convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing bowing complex near the KS/NE state line
has remained relatively intense as it moved southward this evening
across WW635. However, MRMS 7km CAPPI and Echo Tops show the
stronger cores have begun to lose some intensity in the last hour.
This is forecast to continue as the complex moves farther south into
increasing nocturnal inhibition. Despite the weakening trend, recent
measured gusts of 58 and 60 mph in Decatur County, KS show the
bowing segment remains severe. The risk for at least isolated strong
to severe gusts may persist for another few hours tonight into
west-central KS before the complex weakens below severe limits. How
far south this may occur remains unclear. WW635 has been extended in
time and area to 0600z and a downstream WW is not currently
anticipated. Convective trends will be monitored if more than an
isolated severe risk develops.

..Lyons.. 08/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7W-y61fc3cgi3udZ1JdFOVlIqRevAmnP0ivunlbS06IRU3rCcvV2EsIm4qDtDQgzHa1-HxlN6sCWmwcz2aiZ50eKgJg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 40060098 40059951 39159916 38269908 38050012 38260093
38940111 40060098

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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