ACUS11 KWNS 281836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281835
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-282100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Areas affected...western Carolinas into northeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281835Z - 282100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage this afternoon, with
locally strong to perhaps damaging gusts possible.

DISCUSSION...A weak wind shift and surface trough currently extend
from southern VA into the western Carolinas and northern GA, with
thunderstorms now forming within this zone. Gradual destabilization
has occurred with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and continued heating is
expected just east of the surface trough.

Lapse rate profiles are not particularly steep, with surface
temperatures mainly in the 80s F. However, minor cooling aloft has
occurred as southern parts of the upper trough graze the area.

Storms should generally increase in coverage through the afternoon
as they encounter the warming air mass to the east. Winds in the
lower levels will remain weak, as will forcing for ascent overall.
As such, most of these storms should continued to be short lived.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 08/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_fPdskax0wGzctpAZFGLnYP_dSVqjVXIBoXotqhiSeMcim_fj9-euN7vfym-YRGQOMh5Oy6YK2MSH3Yc_bRZM3s-Z-s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 34558367 35758206 36038159 36338099 36408009 35967988
35398043 33608354 33638439 33968451 34558367

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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