ACUS11 KWNS 290342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290341
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290615-

Mesoscale Discussion 2164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern SD into far southeast
ND/southwest MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 290341Z - 290615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may develop late tonight.

DISCUSSION...Capping has thus far inhibited robust storm development
across parts of central/eastern SD. However, increasing low-level
flow noted on regional VWPs is indicative of a strengthening
warm-advection regime that will likely lead to an increasing
coverage of elevated storms late tonight. MUCAPE of near/above 2000
J/kg and sufficient effective shear may result in development of an
elevated supercell or two, before at least modest storm clustering
and upscale growth occurs.

Any initial discrete development or strong embedded cells within
later clustering could pose a threat of isolated large hail.
Increasing low-level stability with time and eastward extent may
hamper severe-wind potential, though some uptick in the wind threat
will be possible if a sufficiently robust cold pool can develop in
association with any nocturnal MCS.

The need for watch issuance is uncertain due to potentially limited
coverage of the severe threat, but trends will continue to be
monitored for development of multiple elevated supercells and/or a well-organized MCS later tonight.

..Dean/Guyer.. 08/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8edHT0nX1JckOLsmI8H-ZktX86T-Q_KLYyheBnmeMoHamCL2f7UP4nvunXgNeox5OPtuqH4um1p-RwqVjCReHCtrchc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 43329945 44109959 45930004 46289779 46009661 45559629
44879610 44309612 43969617 43579639 42919694 43179895
43329945

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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