ACUS11 KWNS 291732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291731
WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-292000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Utah...southwestern/south
central Wyoming...northwestern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291731Z - 292000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to continue developing and
overspreading the region through 1-3 PM MDT, accompanied by
gradually increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind
gusts and small hail. It is still not clear that this will require
a severe weather watch, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a low-amplitude short wave trough, a
corridor of strengthening frontogenetic forcing for ascent (around
and below 700 mb) has provided the primary focus for thunderstorm
development the past few hours. This forcing is forecast to
continue to shift east-northeastward into/across the southwestern
through south central Wyoming state border vicinity through 21-22Z.

The environment along the baroclinic zone is relatively moist, but
with a still relatively cool boundary layer and weak to modest
low/mid-level lapse rates limiting destabilization. Even so, shear
beneath moderate to strong westerly mid/upper flow, including speeds
of 40-50 kt within the lowest 3-4 km AGL, has been sufficient to
support at least one longer-lived vigorous cell with strong to
severe gusts and marginally severe hail southwest through south of
the Great Salt Lake this morning.

Similar strength convection appears possible over the next few
hours, east of the Wasatch, along the Uinta Mountains through the
western Colorado/Wyoming border vicinity, where ongoing insolation
is contributing to the evolution of an increasingly deeply mixed
boundary layer. Forecast soundings suggest that profiles in lower
elevations may become characterized by 30-40 F surface
temperature/dew point spreads, with CAPE exceeding 500 J/kg. As
this occurs, the environment may become conducive to increasing
thunderstorm development with strengthening downdrafts aiding the
downward transport of strong to severe gusts to the surface.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 08/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7JXuEnGow6HiYE7JiS1FwybPE0v6eRn56KbYQnuxLSTcyGVWXY2BdB6uXchBMziYeTcWUrZAHqWwFZ0X3aGjl31E24M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 40351209 41661088 42070897 41890772 40950751 40350926
39961091 40351209

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at [email protected] and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)