ACUS11 KWNS 291920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291920
UTZ000-NVZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...parts of east central/northeastern Nevada into west central/northwestern Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291920Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development, including
a few evolving supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail
and wind, through 3-5 PM MDT. While it is not yet certain that a
severe weather watch will be needed, trends are being monitored for
this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Latest Rapid Refresh output continues to indicate that
the stronger mid-level jet streak is in the process of propagating east-northeast of the Great Salt Lake vicinity through southern
Wyoming. However, west-southwesterly flow in the wake of this
feature is forecast to remain on the order of 40+ kt as low as the
600-500 mb layer, maintaining sufficient shear for organized
thunderstorm development.

Aided by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection, the initiation of scattered discrete thunderstorms
appears underway southwest of the Great Salt Lake vicinity into
eastern Nevada, where the boundary-layer remains moist and
insolation is contributing to increasing instability. As lingering
inhibition weakens further, and CAPE continues to increase in excess
of 1000 J/kg, the environment appears likely to become increasingly
conducive to the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a
risk for severe hail. Despite the relatively high boundary-layer
moisture content, these storms may also gradually pose increasing
potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts through late
afternoon, aided by heavier precipitation loading.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 08/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Q2wJ1OffsFtNa_lnGokFHX2Lacug1-dujlzlit-lYeX7IN2c-FmSV7kdrxHmlIqa-2OCIoIVnCiDPfGGchFfU33C5w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...LKN...

LAT...LON 39961558 41041363 41241224 40441175 38961221 39111377
38821543 39961558

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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