ACUS11 KWNS 291927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291926
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming and northern Colorado into far
western Nebraska and southwest South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291926Z - 292130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe wind gusts may become more probable across
southeast Wyoming/northern Colorado and into the Nebraska Panhandle
(and possibly far southwest South Dakota) through late afternoon as
high-based convection spreads east.

DISCUSSION...A band of high-based convection has been monitored over
the past 1-2 hours as it translates across southern WY with a slight intensification trend noted via falling cloud-top temperatures. This intensification trend appears to be confirmed by a recent 71 mph
wind gust at KRWL (Rawlins, WY) associated with one of the deeper
cores within the band. Further south into northern CO, additional
high-based convection is noted immediately ahead of a weak vorticity
maximum.

Downstream of this activity, surface temperatures continue to warm
into the low 80s to low 90s, which appears to be eroding lingering
inhibition based on modified regional 18z soundings and GOES imagery
and supporting MLCAPE values on the order of 250-500 J/kg as well as
8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates. Ongoing convection may experience
further intensification as it moves into this somewhat more buoyant environment, resulting in increased efficiency of downward transport
of 40-50 knot mid-level flow that is associated with a narrow 500 mb
jet but resides well within the CAPE-bearing layer.

Some guidance - notably RRFS solutions - hints at a more
consolidated cluster/swath of severe winds emerging over the next
couple of hours, but most recent solutions hint that lingering MLCIN
may be in place downstream within the warm sector. A 19z ACARs
sounding from Denver, CO sampled some lingering inhibition, but may
not be fully representative of the more moist air mass further
north/northeast due to the influence of weak westerly downslope
flow. As such, confidence in the coverage of the severe wind threat
is limited and may be focused to where daytime heating will be
maximized in the coming hours. Regardless, sporadic severe gusts
appear probable as thunderstorm coverage increases through late
afternoon.

..Moore/Mosier.. 08/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-FPpFQG6BjDocPy7XmHK1IQfPcdkQ6K1-opwptDJVLEW8vuWZHGryAImLTgZzzn3vhTqWDp8b-MQ1c95yXhSKI6pPts$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 40310611 40530629 41450655 41830688 42070699 42400679
43420431 43410377 43100312 42760291 42170274 41640267
41240263 40790270 40640311 40250567 40310611

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)