ACUS11 KWNS 292159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292158
SDZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292158Z - 300000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds would be possible should a
supercell or two develop late this afternoon. Coverage and storm
longevity are uncertain. A watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Beneath a bands of cirrus streaming eastward, a couple
of thunderstorms have developed within a surface trough in central
South Dakota. Farther west, agitated cumulus have also been noted on
visible satellite. Large-scale ascent is quite weak as mid-level
heights have been neutral through the afternoon. Modifying the
observed 18Z UNR sounding suggests that at least a narrow zone of
central South Dakota has become uncapped. Still, temperatures aloft
are somewhat warm. Effective shear of 40-45 kt and long hodographs
would mean organized supercells, should storms mature. Large hail
and severe winds would be the concerns. Storm coverage and longevity
are the main questions given the mitigating large-scale factors
discussed above.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_PAiqo8XmIraZUudOh1E06Fev7DaK8WnsOGIDHQ48X8mzRr5Q1biejx8_tbM4NbNINZ0D2XFmCI6DreL8scsXw-sMKY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 45639918 45780044 45440189 44840181 44390102 44099921
44239880 44769860 45279859 45639918

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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