ACUS11 KWNS 292308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292308
NEZ000-SDZ000-300115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Western into central Nebraska and southwestern
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292308Z - 300115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of loosely organized thunderstorms has produced
several severe gusts over the past couple of hours. Recent
radar/lightning trends have shown some weakening, though a few
severe gusts remain possible into early evening. A watch is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms, with only isolated deeper
convective cores, has continued to produce severe wind gusts in the
55-75 mph range over the past couple of hours. As this line
continues east this evening, it will encounter a drier pocket of air
where dewpoints have been mixing out late this afternoon. Farther
east, in central Nebraska/South Dakota, dewpoints are in the
mid/upper 60s F. MRMS CAPPI data suggests the strongest cores are
losing definition as they encounter weaker buoyancy/greater MLCIN.
Though a modest increase in the low-level jet will occur this
evening, it is unclear if these storms will maintain organization
more than an hour or two given otherwise poor synoptic support. A
few severe wind gusts are possible with this activity.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8dox3gLIUCsdsrd0BcriKpp5c8Km4MGDmuFPJ8umLw6SWNnnu_G2YVCQgJtxcoHNvXP2ssILU8wkSHGjULoSNuHKviI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 41740363 41830358 42120342 42790335 43170366 43420180
43320105 42930082 42200096 41740154 41600205 41740363

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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