ACUS11 KWNS 012041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012041=20
KSZ000-COZ000-012315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0939
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...Much of western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 012041Z - 012315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
potential into this evening. Primary concerns will be severe wind
gusts and large hail. Timing of a potential watch remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus has been gradually attempting to
deepen within a zone of confluent/upslope low-level flow in western
KS, though weak/negligible large-scale forcing for ascent and
lingering inhibition have limited deeper development thus far.
However, continued attempts may be eroding the cap and could support
isolated storm development over the next couple hours.=20

The GLD VWP is sampling deep/enhanced southeasterly flow veering to southwesterly midlevel winds (around 40 kt of effective shear).=20
While development within the confluence zone still remains
uncertain, this wind profile coupled with steep deep-layer lapse
rates and a warm/moist PBL will conditionally support organized
storms to include supercells. Any storms that can develop/mature
will pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts, though a brief
tornado cannot be entirely ruled out given the presence of enhanced
streamwise vorticity for any established storms.=20

Additional thunderstorms evolving out of southeast CO may eventually
move into this environment as well, which would also be capable of
severe wind gusts and hail. While the overall convective scenario
remains a bit uncertain, the area is being monitored for a possible
watch issuance.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ytd7WqaYoFF3Yn1i_p3LT_fYbwr1fDGftRPxpfEolx2IUv1zBGBc7T2a4iJxkOy00k_g67Ba= gvbZSRJaqUsjuW-e3I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 39690163 39840097 39800007 39579951 39149916 38409921
37829992 37500090 37490165 37660195 38210210 38720212
39320202 39690163=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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