ACUS11 KWNS 020209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020209=20
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-020415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0951
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...Central Arkansas to far northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...263...

Valid 020209Z - 020415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261, 263
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe wind/hail threat will likely persist for the next
hour or so across central to eastern Arkansas and far northwest
Mississippi. WW 263 has been expanded in space and extended time to
account for this potential.

DISCUSSION...A 48 knot wind gusts was recently reported at KLIT
(Little Rock, AR) associated with thunderstorms that developed along
the outflow boundary of prior convection. While this activity itself
has become outflow dominant, GOES IR imagery continues to show
strong updraft pulses and percolated convection is noted further
south within the very buoyant warm sector. Consequently, it seems
plausible that some wind (and perhaps localized hail) threat should
persist across central AR over the next hour or so before this
cluster substantially weakens.=20

Further east, new convection continues to develop along and ahead of
a migratory outflow boundary across the Memphis, TN region. Despite
the onset of nocturnal cooling, very moist boundary-layer conditions
will modulate the degree of low-level stabilization for the next few
hours, allowing for additional thunderstorm development across the
region. Based on MRMS trends, this convection may periodically
intensify to severe limits and could pose a localized hail/wind
threat.=20

Across both regions, the outflow-dominant nature of the convection
and limited deep-layer wind shear should limit the duration of the
severe threat heading into the late overnight hours, but spatial
expansions and a temporal extension of WW 263 were made to address
the short-term threat.

..Moore.. 06/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_6gL05yBErHoKSm2jq363l25NLoPe3aV50ZSM8IUrNlLxbGaroOgltOC8K4IbiBzd1Mih8oC9= T-l_RqLCb4SAOv7XoI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34729360 34719210 34779147 34959107 35389079 35519054
35509024 35379000 35158976 34628974 34398985 34139025
33949073 33839136 33839208 33939271 34029315 34169349
34349365 34589371 34729360=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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