ACUS11 KWNS 021659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021659=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-021830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...central North Dakota into north-central South
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021659Z - 021830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of marginally severe hail and strong to
severe wind will be possible with storms along the cold front
through early afternoon. Additional stronger storms are expected
later in the afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity near the front in central North
Dakota/far northern South Dakota has shown occasional strengthening
MESH cores with marginally severe hail (with up to penny size hail
reported). For now, MLCIN remains in place across much of the
Dakotas but it is steadily beginning to erode to the north with
daytime heating and warming surface temperatures. Deep layer shear
around 30-40 kts may support a few instances of small to severe hail
and strong to severe wind may evolve before a more pronounced severe
threat develops into the afternoon.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8nN3i_abON1FLUWZrzFKkWTa-zkgz1F5WiQTIA7iyb31-5Ej_qHzPCvSOSXhNTheg3GrDjOSU= 8nV6yHpe0sSeQpht2s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 49070166 46650298 45790330 45520261 45620139 45970059
46809977 47709925 48659916 49140043 49070166=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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