ACUS11 KWNS 021749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021749=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-022015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0957
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of the southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021749Z - 022015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will bring a risk for
damaging wind gusts and large hail to portions of the southern High
Plains through this evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts developing
thunderstorms along the higher-terrain areas of central/southeastern
New Mexico, with additional development expected farther south into
West Texas by early afternoon. Continued insolation amid moist
southeasterly, low-level flow is expected to support 1000 to locally
2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating this afternoon. RAP forecast
soundings suggest convection moving off of the high-terrain will
initially encounter increasingly deep boundary layers owing to
diurnal mixing, with latest guidance suggesting surface dewpoint
depressions may exceed 40 F by the mid-to-late afternoon. Weak
effective shear across the region (generally less than 20 kts per
latest mesoanalysis) and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will
promote efficient evaporative cooling and outflow-dominant storm
structure, with the potential for damaging wind gusts. Isolated
large hail may also accompany the most robust updrafts owing to
steep mid-level lapse rates.

Farther north across northeastern New Mexico, latest surface
analysis depicts a roughly west-east oriented outflow boundary
extending from the northern Texas Panhandle towards the high terrain
of north-central New Mexico, with two discrete supercells noted in
this region north of I-40 via recent radar imagery. Objective
analysis depicts a corridor of locally greater buoyancy (2000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) and marginally enhanced effective shear (25-35 kts) along
and south of this boundary. This is likely to favor area of locally
greater large hail potential through this afternoon. A brief
tornado/landspout also cannot be ruled out should a storm interact
with the greater low-level shear/surface vertical vorticity analyzed
along this boundary.

Given the expectation for storm organization and severe magnitude to
remain largely limited, watch issuance appears unlikely at this
time. Trends will continue to be monitored, however.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8lx-j9wHht0MrNkvD23NtIfj7D4-S8TpWlXBukXdGhWVn8z0ZY4nehEWis3Vdui_T7w-Po4TZ= qab_14gNgkgD9mfAyo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 35470552 36220521 36700488 36920437 36930386 36850337
36580308 36170292 35500285 34370284 32460291 31690300
30910309 29800341 29390368 29190391 29240418 29400442
29710472 30070488 30410505 30630521 30750547 31100578
31470607 32960599 33580589 35470552=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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