ACUS11 KWNS 021808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021808=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-022045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0958
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Texas into northwestern
Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021808Z - 022045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon across portions of central/eastern Texas into
northwestern Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas. Locally damaging
wind gusts may accompany the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a remnant outflow
boundary extending roughly west-to-east from north-central Texas
into northeast Texas and far northwestern Louisiana, with a separate
convective outflow boundary analyzed to the north across
southeastern Oklahoma/southwestern Arkansas. South of this secondary
outflow boundary, temperatures in the low 90s F with low-to-mid 70s
dewpoints are supporting strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 3000-3500+ J/kg per
latest objective analysis). Expectation is for thunderstorm coverage
to continue to increase through the afternoon along these boundaries
before moving generally south-southwestward.

Weak deep-layer flow under an upper-level anticyclone will limit
effective shear through the afternoon, with values forecast to
remain below 15-20 kts. While this will largely inhibit
updraft/storm organization, high PWAT contents (1.7+ inches) within
the strongly unstable environment will support water-loaded
downdrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. Small to
marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest convective
cores despite limited effective shear and only modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the 12z FWD observed sounding).
Watch issuance is not expected given the limited potential for storm organization and the resultant low severe magnitude.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!762rvJ-AHbYBW8McDEyGy6ZZOqMPa0H2Q0H8aM4Pf7-fc7XhGaAs2Lhby800gLdVDUZhzDCRg= MhwFyLMLRBWM08J3Cc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 34419350 34469329 34399315 34289303 33619282 33149280
32529293 31729354 31039503 30859616 30769715 30919774
31189802 31489809 31779800 32009787 32429740 32829683
33289594 33619517 33909421 34129376 34419350=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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