ACUS11 KWNS 021942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021942=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-022215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0960
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021942Z - 022215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may bring a threat for isolated
damaging downburst winds and perhaps an instance or two of large
hail along the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible satellite imagery and lightning
data indicate an uptick in thunderstorm development across the
eastern Florida Peninsula over the last 30-60 minutes, with
west-northwesterly, deep-layer flow continuing to favor low-level
convergence along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Isolated
thunderstorms near the Jacksonville area have largely struggled to
intensify thus far, likely owing to lingering warm mid/upper level
temperatures around 400 mb sampled by a recent JAX ACARS profile.
Increasing ascent ahead of an approaching upper-level trough across
North Florida (evident in the 12/18z JAX observed soundings) should
continue to support cooling mid-level temperatures. While convective
coverage remains somewhat uncertain (especially across portions of
the northern Peninsula where objective analysis depicts some
lingering inhibition), this should allow for some increase in storm
coverage and intensity through the afternoon.

Moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE per latest
objective analysis) and modest west/northwesterly flow aloft (as
sampled by regional VAD profiles) will support some updraft
organization with any developing storms, with multicells and
marginal supercell structures possible. PWAT contents of 1.7+ inches
will promote water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging
wind gusts. Poor mid-level lapse rates will largely temper the
overall hail risk, but an instance or two of large hail may
accompany the most robust updrafts. An isolated landspout/waterspout
may also be possible where a stronger low-level updraft can interact
with enhanced surface vertical vorticity along the sea breeze and/or
an outflow boundary. The greatest severe risk is likely to manifest
seaward of the Atlantic Coast sea breeze, where easterly winds and
greater moisture in the low-levels will support greater buoyancy and
enhanced effective shear. Watch issuance is not expected due to the
expectation for severe coverage/magnitude to remain limited,
however.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8xhRzNOAy7SCPjOM60xZcyWgQjfXxYV45S2FY1_jPVbnEIuJ0RPpoQb66MdbXcjs_R4dXq8ei= TQx-m8m35Kt01D1AtQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 26898128 27838182 29208218 30258230 30728225 30988207
31028169 30908153 30738138 30378124 29318089 28588041
28458039 28198046 27328005 26877991 26417992 26278003
26238016 26298054 26898128=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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