ACUS11 KWNS 022229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022228=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...northern South Dakota to northeast North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270...

Valid 022228Z - 030030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will most likely be
concentrated from north-central South Dakota to northeast North
Dakota over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery from KMVX and KMBX shows
semi-discrete cells continuing to grow upscale into loosely
organized convective clusters across northeast ND as they migrate north/northeast along a surface front and a low-level confluence
band. While these storm interactions appear to limiting the
longevity of the severe threat for any particular storm, MRMS and
GOES IR imagery continues to show transient, but intense, updraft
pulses within these clusters.=20

Further upstream, visible imagery shows steadily building cumulus
and the early stages of sustained deep convection across
north-central SD into south-central ND. Given a weakly capped
thermodynamic environment and focsued low-level ascent, the chance
for additional severe thunderstorms emerging from south-central to
northeast ND appears to be increasing. Given southerly flow through
much of the column and initiation along a meridionally-oriented
boundary, some degree of clustering/upscale growth appears likely
through the evening and may favor a severe wind threat. However,
taken in isolation the wind profile sampled by the nearby KBIS VWP
suggests that window may exist for a few semi-discrete supercells
capable of large hail. Recent high-res guidance appears to support
this idea and suggests the primary severe corridor will be
downstream of this activity for the next few hours.

..Moore.. 06/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7CPmEa2nxLrDJh6R0zHZlu2iWePK8CzLlY9pn_Z_ft5OxlqQjXde2408btPLrcpVkJYFW0rvl= L81DALZfx9TN3JQYLw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 47470008 48999901 49009745 48869734 48439726 46269889
45839910 45409925 45239937 45149959 45159998 45200022
45330029 45720038 46440041 46940045 47190039 47470008=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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