ACUS11 KWNS 031943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031943=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0968
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...eastern Dakotas into far western Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 031943Z - 032215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat to increase into the late afternoon/evening.
Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Remnant outflow/thunderstorm activity continues to move
northward across central South Dakota this afternoon, with
occasional stronger cores producing hail up to 1 inch. Widespread
cloud cover accompanies the surface low/outflow boundary into
western/central South Dakota. Less cloud cover is in place across
eastern South Dakota where temperatures are slowly warming into the
mid 70s to 80s and higher theta-e air is nudging northward.

Exact timing of the more appreciable severe threat remains somewhat
uncertain given cloud cover and slow heating/destabilization.
Guidance suggests that as the outflow lifts northward this evening,
convective initiation will occur along and south of the outflow and
along the cold front to the west. Temperatures warming into the 80s
amid dew points in the low to mid 60s should support MLCAPE around
1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs which
would support supercells capable of large to very large hail and
tornadoes. A watch will be needed to cover this potential by the
late afternoon/early evening.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!474cH97lt3FeGSiuKXsD3O3UtefT-FvT-4F-D-EXUOuPFJqQW3VY_KzUeAQj6EbsDiI3ttGmg= vaQtj_i8REHsXL6CqU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 47339693 46829650 46369631 46169631 45269637 44059695
43409807 43369872 43379899 43419988 43510038 43770077
43950093 44290110 44780104 45430083 46460036 46979984
47349899 47479826 47449756 47339693=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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