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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2245

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Dec 2 08:00:18 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 020800
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020759=20
    VAZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-021200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2245
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0159 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

    Areas affected...WV...northwestern VA...western MD...and far
    southwest PA

    Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

    Valid 020759Z - 021200Z

    SUMMARY...Several hours of freezing rain are possible this morning
    from WV into northwestern VA, western MD, and far southwest PA.
    Highest freezing rain rates are expected along the Blue Ridge
    Mountains.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a large precipitation
    shield continuing to expand northeastward across WV into northwest
    VA, western MD, and far southwest PA. Surface observations show
    several sites in southwest WV are currently reporting freezing rain
    while the sites north and east into more of eastern WV and adjacent
    northwest VA and western MD are currently precipitation free.
    Temperatures within the precipitation free zone are currently near
    freezing, and the expectation is that temperatures will cool a
    degree or two over the next free hours as the precipitation
    continues to expand into the region. Recent KRLX imagery shows a
    well-defined melting layer around 4 to 5 kft, suggesting that
    freezing rain could be the predominant precipitation type for at
    least a few hours. Some sleet could occur as well, but the
    shallowness of the cold wedge should keep its occurrence isolated.
    After an initial cool down with temperatures below freezing for at
    least a few hours, temperatures should warm again from southwest to
    northeast, with the primary precipitation type transitioning to a
    rain/snow mix.

    ..Mosier.. 12/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9k8VZdx7zX-YhipbbkZ-h_uUmsUnt5nTQDu2O4TlCAboD_uMdLQB8H67VNVH3hZo8RiPY40gc= qJ7y8_wW7KJCPRQbxc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 38428175 38948138 39638055 39937959 39977907 39677849
    39117818 38647829 38287842 37857870 37707891 37337959
    36998068 37198145 37548171 38428175=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 20:35:28 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 052035
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052034
    NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-052230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2245
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0334 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

    Areas affected...western/central South Dakota into western/central
    Nebraska and eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 052034Z - 052230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms may produce marginally severe hail and
    strong to severe wind this afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing near the surface trough
    across the central Plains. Modifying the 18z sounding from LBF shows
    MLCIN has weakened but remains. Moderate instability was sampled
    above the capping layer. Remaining MLCIN is also depicted in SPC
    Mesoanalysis across much of the central Plains, though temperatures
    warming into the mid 90s across western Nebraska and eastern
    Colorado are slowly eroding the remaining cap. Deep layer flow is
    generally weak, which will likely keep the organized severe
    potential low. However, deep layer shear around 20-30 kts may
    support a few stronger cores capable of marginally severe hail.
    Large dew point depressions and steep lapse rates will favor outflow
    dominant storms capable of a few instances of strong to severe wind.
    Overall, severe potential looks to remain too isolated for watch
    issuance.

    ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/05/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9yJtMLzsQ78jYBCoG1mFZJ2zUzQVHMVWUwHyJt9XJCasgyiCGRfjdxUSXluDrhaUDP7f2kcLxU4mPSuMd-UIkjDDeNE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39410352 41030377 42140364 42920356 45060320 45400295
    45640247 45270123 44770090 44140078 44070082 43830063
    43330034 42329983 41769988 40510035 39520239 39410352

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)