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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2246

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Dec 2 09:54:17 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 020954
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020954=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-021400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2246
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0354 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

    Areas affected...OH...northern WV Panhandle...and western PA

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 020954Z - 021400Z

    SUMMARY...Snowfall rates could exceed 1"/hr from OH into the
    northern WV Panhandle and western PA over the next several hours.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a large area of moderate
    to occasionally heavy snow across the middle/upper OH Valley, within
    the northern periphery of the warm conveyor associated with a
    shortwave trough moving into the lower OH Valley. The heaviest
    snowfall is currently ongoing over the southern IN/OH border
    vicinity, just downstream of a mid-level jetlet preceding the
    shortwave. The general expectation is for this jetlet to progress
    northeastward over the next few hours, with an attendant
    northeastward shift of the heavy snowfall anticipated as well. This
    shift would bring the highest snowfall rates, which could exceed
    1"/hr, into central OH shortly and into eastern OH and western PA
    later this morning.

    ..Mosier.. 12/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_V-GzidcZDcYreDqWN0zsN6V8ejJGW9C7_FyWWJATYE8KerVLVWTEggwb8d1MW_nqjcJuaHF-= Etm0xfKDr0pSbaLmfA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

    LAT...LON 40488461 41128213 41878024 41737904 40897871 39588037
    38388253 38908458 40488461=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 21:40:48 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 052140
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052140
    SCZ000-GAZ000-052315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2246
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0440 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southern and coastal South Carolina
    into far eastern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 052140Z - 052315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A risk for primarily damaging/severe wind gusts is
    expected to continue as ongoing thunderstorms evolve southeastward
    toward the SC coast. A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
    needed in the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a broken band of
    convection extending from northeast of the Atlanta Metro into far
    southeastern North Carolina as of 2140 UTC. Occasionally stronger
    downburst signatures have been noted within the marginally more
    well-organized linear segments, and several reports of
    damaging/severe wind gusts have been noted, including a measured 63
    kt (72 mph) wind gust at KFAY at 2048 UTC. The environment
    downstream of ongoing convection in central SC is not too dissimilar
    to areas farther northeast, with MLCAPE of 2500-3000+ J/kg, modestly
    steep low-level lapse rates (particularly inland of the sea breeze),
    and high PW around 2". Combined with modest effective shear of 25-30
    kts, this environment should continue to favor loosely organized
    convective clusters and the potential for water-loaded downbursts
    capable of damaging/severe wind gusts as convection progresses
    southeastward towards the South Carolina coastline. Convective
    trends will continue to be monitored, and a small Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch may be needed downstream within the next hour.

    ..Chalmers/Smith.. 09/05/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!66Qoe7zFXUCmoI7EAAfs0XyxWZ8BGdycUfqMfWSXtWffqs2fQQSsL0A0ZGFFQcWn6yTtHTqiBtajc5AjTZ5GG8kz9Ho$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 34118163 34228075 34188006 34077972 33787931 33387907
    32977917 32278015 32018048 31978094 32328132 32988181
    33508209 34018205 34118163

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)