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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2248

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Dec 2 18:34:46 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 021834
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021834=20 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-022230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2248
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1234 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

    Areas affected...Southern New York into New England

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 021834Z - 022230Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates between 1-2 inches per hour remain
    likely across southern New York into portions of New England this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar mosaics show the development of a snow
    band across portions of south/southeastern New York in response to strengthening frontogenesis between the 925-850 mb levels across the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Surface observations and web cams
    under this band are reporting visibility reductions between 1/4 to
    1/2 mile, which given weak winds across the region, are likely being
    driven primarily by moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Broad-scale
    ascent ahead of an approaching upper wave and more focused mesoscale
    ascent within the warm advection branch of an intensifying low-level
    cyclone (augmented by frontogenetical responses) will remain
    favorably phased through the remainder of the afternoon over the
    greater New England region. This will continue to favor widespread light/moderate precipitation and the maintenance and/or development
    of heavier precipitation bands. Consequently, snowfall rates between
    1-2 inches/hour will remain likely for areas north of the surface
    freezing line. Nearly isothermal temperature profiles from the
    surface to around 850 mb suggests that areas near the surface
    freezing line may continue to see rapid fluctuations in
    precipitation type between snow, sleet, and potentially freezing
    rain.

    ..Moore.. 12/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9oVOm6dgiTRpp_AOZf97RN7EcIAjHg_XXlLU68jeMwViQ3JAztGiqzYMeYKh4lBRDhIEUEodh= hG3ikg17n8lh5Xe59Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 42227105 41537270 41247350 41107407 41167459 41297490
    41587521 41947516 42257497 42457469 43647197 43657149
    43567127 43127069 42887051 42647051 42457066 42227105=20


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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 04:29:26 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 060429
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060428
    NEZ000-COZ000-060630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2248
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1128 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

    Areas affected...parts of northeastern Colorado...southwestern
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 060428Z - 060630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A small, but organizing cluster of storms may continue to
    pose a risk for strong to severe gusts near the I-80 corridor, while approaching the North Platte NE vicinity through the 1-3 AM CDT time
    frame. It is not clear that this will require another severe
    weather watch, but trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...As the initial stronger storm cluster dissipated to the east/northeast of the Alliance NE vicinity, vigorous renewed
    thunderstorm development initiated to its southwest, along a
    stalling outflow boundary across the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. This
    activity has generated a number of strong to severe wind gusts
    either side of the northern Colorado/Nebraska Panhandle border over
    the past hour or so, while becoming a bit better organized with a
    developing embedded lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation and
    at least a compact area of stronger 2-hourly surface pressure rises
    on the order of 3-5 mb across the Sidney NE vicinity.

    Aided by a modestly strengthening southerly nocturnal low-level jet
    (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) across the high plains, vertical shear and
    forcing for ascent along the outflow may continue to overcome
    increasing mid-level inhibition (associated with further
    boundary-layer cooling) at least another few hours. Based on latest
    objective analysis, easterly near-surface updraft inflow becomes
    potentially much more unstable eastward along the I-80 corridor
    toward the North Platte vicinity, where surface dew points increase
    to around 70 F.

    ..Kerr.. 09/06/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-NCYDdQd3kCyhkSyUeThDR4-pUFy7BZXWk7hiS_154cCwVzx86QBxvLM_86X6rJPKJx72Bvn_RyM9eyTx80zPF0smMA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...

    LAT...LON 40880240 41190229 41400110 41230039 40510091 40460172
    40580260 40880240

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)