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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2249

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 3 01:13:47 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 030113
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030112=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-030715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2249
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0712 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

    Areas affected...coastal northern New England

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 030112Z - 030715Z

    SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow rates on the order of 1/2 to 1+
    inches per hour are possible across southern Maine this evening,
    with heaviest rates most probable near Down East coastal areas
    closer to and after Midnight EST, as strengthening and gusty winds
    contribute to reduced visibilities and blowing/drifting.

    DISCUSSION...A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to continue an east-northeastward migration, generally south through east of the
    Cape Cod vicinity through mid to late evening. This will be
    accompanied by a zone of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric
    frontogenetic forcing to its north through northeast. At
    mid-levels, the Rapid Refresh indicates that this will shift across
    southern Maine through southern New Brunswick, where forecast
    soundings indicate that strengthening lift in (roughly) the 600-500
    mb layer may coincide with temperatures most conducive to large
    dendritic ice crystal growth (around -15 C).

    There is notable spread within and among the various model output
    concerning these details, and potentially varying rates of cyclone
    and upward vertical motion intensification. However, in the
    presence of sub-freezing thermodynamic profiles, guidance generally
    indicates snow rates on the order of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour are
    possible this evening across much of southern Maine. Heaviest rates
    appear most probable near immediate coastal areas of Maine,
    particularly across Down East coastal Maine closer to and after
    05-06Z, when strengthening and gusty east-northeasterly surface
    winds may contribute to considerable blowing/drifting and reduced
    visibilities.

    ..Kerr.. 12/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!63l5TsRTVKHsciZtEOS1CusHX6FbJvW3N87r-cm2eaTmCmslOHiwJhtZEHWE5wtAt6vsNEhgG= 9t18_Dc17nUEMUxiHc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

    LAT...LON 43277133 44757076 45456714 44046610 43626951 43127081
    43277133=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 15:18:56 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 061518
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061518
    NDZ000-061645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2249
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1018 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of western/central ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 061518Z - 061645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm evolution is uncertain, but a threat for isolated
    hail and strong/damaging gusts may persist through the morning.

    DISCUSSION...Vigorous elevated storms have developed across western
    ND, apparently in association with a low-amplitude midlevel
    shortwave trough approaching the area from eastern MT. Steep
    midlevel lapse rates will continue to support moderate elevated
    buoyancy, while effective shear will remain sufficient for some
    storm organization and at least transient supercell structures.
    Large hail and localized strong/damaging gusts will continue to be a
    threat for as long as these storms persist.

    Longevity of the ongoing cluster remains uncertain, due to its
    elevated nature and generally subtle large-scale ascent. The need
    for watch issuance is likewise uncertain, but a longer-term severe
    threat could evolve if this cluster can persist through the morning
    and become closer to surface-based with time.

    ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/06/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8zy0J4o-k0ahY2Df9A4xM19PzxvkJkk4mrosIjPM8RF-VNAt7gmVzZVsNCKI3IFJwbgNaGPId_JHFkygh_SrThSogSA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...

    LAT...LON 47210312 47710283 47910152 47980065 47810021 47560009
    47230028 46960046 46690089 46550148 46510210 46500247
    46540294 46730317 47210312

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)