ACUS48 KWNS 240957
SWOD48
SPC AC 240956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the
remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in
the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple
perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same
time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor
northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow
for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry
and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through
day 8.

..Lyons.. 01/24/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 250950
SWOD48
SPC AC 250948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather concerns are negligible for the extended forecast
period. Continued eastern US troughing, reinforced by northwesterly
flow out of southern Canada will replenish a cold, dry and stable
air mass underneath Arctic high Pressure. While some surface
cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic
coast into next weekend, offshore winds should preclude robust
moisture return, negating any thunderstorm or severe risk for the
next several days.

..Lyons.. 01/25/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 261000
SWOD48
SPC AC 260958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A
robust Arctic air mass associated with continued troughing over the
eastern US will be reinforced by several additional perturbations
moving out of Canada and a building western US ridge. As the flow
pattern aloft amplifies, surface cyclogenesis appears possible over
the eastern Gulf and Atlantic seaboard this weekend, further
increasing offshore flow and limiting substantial inland moisture return/destabilization. Thus, thunderstorm potential appears
negligible through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 01/26/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 270951
SWOD48
SPC AC 270950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very
low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend
as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies
along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the
eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early
next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over
the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely
for the foreseeable future.

..Lyons.. 01/27/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 280957
SWOD48
SPC AC 280956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A
highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue
through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A
prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong
surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will
support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass
over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture
transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm
potential for the next several days.

..Lyons.. 01/28/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 290943
SWOD48
SPC AC 290942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast
period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale
troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several
other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft
and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will
reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely
suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable
future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf
Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week,
overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the
extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 01/29/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 301001
SWOD48
SPC AC 301000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will continue throughout the Day 4 to 8
period across much of the nation, as a series of shortwave troughs
move southeastward through the flow. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday into Wednesday across
parts of the Southeast as a trough moves eastward into the eastern
U.S. Weak moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to keep
the stronger instability over the northern Gulf of America. For this
reason, a severe threat is not forecast with this system. Late in
the week, a cold and dry airmass will likely make thunderstorms
unfavorable across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 01/30/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 310959
SWOD48
SPC AC 310958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Embedded within broad midlevel troughing over the eastern half of
the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys and
Southeast on Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. During that time, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along an accompanying
cold front as it moves from east TX across the central Gulf Coast.
However, limited moisture/buoyancy ahead of the front should limit
severe potential.

Thereafter, a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude
thunderstorms across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 01/31/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 010929
SWOD48
SPC AC 010928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A midlevel trough and related cold front will move eastward across
the Southeast and FL Peninsula on Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. While
isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front as it
overspreads the central/eastern Gulf Coast states, limited
moisture/buoyancy will keep the severe risk low. Thereafter,
strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow over the MS/OH Valleys
will reinforce large-scale troughing over the eastern U.S. and
western Atlantic. This will favor a prolonged period of dry,
offshore flow -- limiting thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 02/01/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 020936
SWOD48
SPC AC 020934

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an
upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of
the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance
depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on
Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and
eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of
this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing,
evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains
and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current
indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of
the extended forecast period.

..Weinman.. 02/02/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 030940
SWOD48
SPC AC 030939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On the backside of a broad large-scale trough over the East, dry,
offshore flow will persist across much of the CONUS through at least
Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. As a result, thunderstorm potential will
be low during this time frame. Thereafter, medium-range guidance
depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough/low moving eastward across
the Southwest/northern Mexico and eventually into the southern
Plains by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. However, current indications are
that surface high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the
CONUS will limit boundary-layer moisture return and overall severe
potential.

..Weinman.. 02/03/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 040945
SWOD48
SPC AC 040944

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough
advancing eastward across parts of Mexico and the Southwest on Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday, before emerging over the southern Plains
vicinity around Day 7/Tuesday. While the timing and overall
evolution of this feature remain uncertain (given substantial model differences), current indications are that the
unconsolidated/split-flow nature of the upper-level pattern and
weakly modified Gulf moisture return will limit severe potential.

..Weinman.. 02/04/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 050958
SWOD48
SPC AC 050956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across northern
Mexico on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, before devolving into an open wave
and emerging over the southern Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. While
thunderstorm potential should increase across the region ahead of
this feature, current indications are that weakly modified Gulf
moisture will limit appreciable severe potential -- especially given
modest midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough.

In the wake of this feature, the upper-level pattern should begin to consolidate and amplify, as a large-scale trough develops over the
West. This should eventually favor higher-quality boundary-layer
moisture return into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in
the extended forecast period.

..Weinman.. 02/05/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 060752
SWOD48
SPC AC 060750

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be positioned over
northern Mexico and AZ/NM on Day 4/Mon. This system will progress
eastward across TX and the Gulf Coast states/Southeast through Day
6/Wed. As this occurs, a deepening surface low over the Plains will
support southerly returning flow transporting modified Gulf moisture
northward into parts of the south-central and southeast states
through mid-week. Some increase in thunderstorm potential is
possible with this system, though severe potential appears limited
by weak instability and warm midlevel temperatures.

By the end of the period, an upper ridge is forecast over the
south-central and southeast states, maintaining Gulf moisture from
parts of TX into Gulf Coast states on persistent southerly low-level
flow. At the same time, an upper trough is forecast to deepen over
portions of the Plains and Midwest, and a surface cold front will
develop southward toward the Gulf Coast from Thursday night into
Friday (Days 7-8). Some increase in thunderstorm potential will be
possible, though severe potential is uncertain given poor model
run-to-run inconsistency and questions regarding quality of moisture
return.

..Leitman.. 02/06/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 070853
SWOD48
SPC AC 070851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Tue-Wed -- Gulf Coast States...

An upper shortwave trough embedded within broader upper ridging
across the eastern half of the U.S., will move across the Gulf Coast
states Day 4-5/Tue-Wed. Modified Gulf moisture (50s to near 60 F
dewpoints) will overspread portions of the south-central and
southeast CONUS during this time. The upper trough is expected to
weaken as it moves east, and destabilization is expected to remain
meager. While some thunderstorm potential could emerge, severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat - Southern States...

Another upper trough is forecast to move across the Southwest on Day
6/Thu, and continue eastward across the Southeast through Day 8/Sun. Quasi-zonal flow/weak upper riding will persist downstream from this
feature across the southern Plains into the Southeast, allowing for
some degree of modified Gulf moisture to develop near the Gulf Coast
vicinity. However, forecast guidance varies in the strength of the
developing upper trough, and with regards to potential moisture
return across the south-central/southeast states. Some increase in
thunderstorm potential may develop by the end of the period across
the region, but severe potential appears low/uncertain given large
spread among guidance.

..Leitman.. 02/07/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 080752
SWOD48
SPC AC 080751

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of
the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves
across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across
the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling
aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is
expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected.

Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend.
However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across
the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper
trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern
Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the
southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow
over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at
least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As
the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the
Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing
thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing
boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the
upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this
system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and
ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/08/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 090926
SWOD48
SPC AC 090925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX
to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this
period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and
Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to
timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints
will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.

Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the
Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf
Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML
guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the
current forecast strength and track of the associated surface
cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end
potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic
environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes
15 percent severe delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 02/09/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 100903
SWOD48
SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Fri-Sun -- TX into the Southeast...

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest
into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday,
southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the
trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western
TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture
(upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central
to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model
spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression
of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some
guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further
north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at
least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer
moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer
southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening
through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS
Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall
severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a
somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this
early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 110931
SWOD48
SPC AC 110929

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Sat-Sun -- Texas to the Southeast...

An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day
4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through
Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer
moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a
surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will
deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before
moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within
the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front,
first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday
night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and
Southeast on Sunday.

Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end
severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak
destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector.
However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is
unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement
of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt
trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary,
training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These
uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.

...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed...

Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern
U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from
the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the
period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive
upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing
over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond
Monday.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

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