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  • TROPDISC: Tropical Weather Discussion

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 22:50:22 2026
    290
    AXNT20 KNHC 022249
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2230 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 21N,
    moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    depicted from 13N-16N between 38W-43W.

    A well-defined tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along
    59W, south of 23N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. The wave
    is interacting with an upper-level trough to its west, and
    producing scattered moderate convection from 19N-23N
    between 55W-60W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Mauritania
    near 17N17W and continues southwestward to 10N48W. The ITCZ
    extends from 10N48W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is
    depicted from 06N-10N between 15W-33W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak 1018 mb high centered over the N central Gulf near 29N88W
    is leading toward gentle winds across the entire Gulf today.
    Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 24N-27N east of 87W
    due to an upper-level low.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure in place over the region
    will generally allow for moderate or weaker winds and slight to
    moderate seas across the Gulf through the next few days. The
    presence of abundant tropical moisture will favor scattered
    showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the eastern Gulf
    through the weekend.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A weak pressure gradient from the Bermuda High north of the area
    to a 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to locally strong
    trades only in the S central Caribbean with seas 5-6 ft.
    Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 1-4 ft. A
    surface trough extends from central Cuba to near 20N80W with
    isolated showers and thunderstorms near the trough and over E
    Cuba.

    For the forecast, he trough will continue moving WNW through Thu
    night while becoming diffuse. Elsewhere across the basin, the
    pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and relatively
    lower pressure in northern South America will maintain mostly
    fresh trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean,
    and over the western portion of the eastern Caribbean through Sat
    night. These trades are forecast to increase to fresh to strong
    speeds while expanding in coverage over the south-central portion
    of the basin beginning Sun. Winds reaching near gale are expected
    Mon night and Tue night near Colombia and in the Gulf of
    Venezuela. Fresh to strong east winds are expected in the Gulf of
    Honduras Fri night and Mon night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
    winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the
    remainder of the basin during the period.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    The pressure gradient between a weak 1019 mb Bermuda High at
    33N72W and lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is
    forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades with seas 3-6 ft.
    The only exceptions are fresh to locally strong NE winds with
    seas 6-8 ft off of the coast of Western Sahara and the Canary
    Islands. In addition to the convection noted over the Atlantic due
    to the two tropical waves, a surface trough interacting with an
    upper-level low is forcing scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection from 25N-30N between 74W-79W.

    For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
    will continue over the waters W of about 70W through the rest of
    the week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift
    westward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains
    in place. A cold front will then approach from the NW Sat through
    Sun night enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms
    over the NW portion of the area. Moderate to fresh east to
    southeast winds are over the waters south of about 27N between 70W
    and 77W. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will provide for
    generally moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the
    forecast waters.

    $$
    Landsea/Aguirre

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 04:36:56 2026
    158
    AXNT20 KNHC 030436
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0435 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is added to the 0000 UTC analysis/surface map
    along 18W/19W south of 20N. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 07N to 14N E of 20W to the coast of W Africa.

    A tropical wave is along 44W, south of 20N, moving westward at
    around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is on either side of
    the trough axis from 12N to 17N between 40W and 48W. Moderate to
    fresh easterly winds are from 15N to 20N between 40W and 48W.

    A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is
    along 59W south of 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave
    is interacting with an upper-level trough to its west, and
    producing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 24N between
    54W and 61W. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong
    winds near the northern end of the wave axis, particularly from
    19N to 21N between 55W and 59W. Moisture associated with the wave
    will increase the probability of rain across the Lesser Antilles
    today.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
    near 17N16W and continues westward to 14N30W to 10N48W. The ITCZ
    extends from 10N48W to 11N57W. In addition to the convection associated
    with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed
    from 05N to 08N between 20W and 35W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak 1016 mb high pressure centered over the NE Gulf near 29N87W
    dominates the basin, and is supporting light to gentle winds and
    slight seas, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh SE
    winds over the west-central waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
    are affecting the western Florida peninsula and coastal waters.
    Meanwhile, the remnants of Edouard continue to add heavy rainfall
    to flooded areas across east Texas.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure in place over the region will
    generally allow for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
    seas across the Gulf through the next few days. The presence of
    abundant tropical moisture will favor scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the eastern Gulf through the weekend.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A surface trough extends across the central Bahamas and central
    Cuba generating scattered to numerous showers, with embedded
    thunderstorms, over most of Cuba and the Cayman Islands. An
    upper-level low over the SE Gulf of America and the Yucatan
    peninsula is also helping to induce this convective activity.
    The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area
    and the Colombian Low supports fresh to locally strong trade winds
    over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela.
    Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the central
    Caribbean while mainly moderate trades are noted over the eastern
    part of the basin. Gentle to locally moderate winds are occurring
    in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with the strongest winds,
    and 3 to 5 elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where seas are 1
    to 3 ft.

    For the forecast, the trough will continue moving WNW through Thu
    night while becoming diffuse. Elsewhere across the basin, the
    pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure
    in northern South America will maintain mostly fresh trades along
    with moderate seas over the central Caribbean, and over the western
    portion of the eastern Caribbean through Sat night. These trades
    are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds while expanding
    in coverage over the south-central portion of the basin on Sun.
    Winds reaching near gale are expected Mon night and Tue night near
    Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong east winds
    are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Mon night.
    Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
    will continue across the remainder of the basin during the period.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    As previously mentioned, a surface trough extends over the central
    Bahamas and central Cuba, and is generating some shower and
    thunderstorm activity over the Bahamas and regional waters. The
    remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence
    of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1026 mb located
    NE of the Azores near 41N19W. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and a surface trough over Morocco and Western Sahara is
    promoting fresh to locally strong N to NE winds N of 20N and E of
    22W, including the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range
    with this winds. Moderate to fresh winds are just offshore
    Hispaniola with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
    and moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
    will continue over the waters W of about 70W through the rest of
    the week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift
    westward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains
    in place. A cold front will then approach from the NW Sat through
    Sun night enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms
    over the NW portion of the area. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge
    will provide for generally moderate or weaker winds and moderate
    seas over the forecast waters.

    $$
    GR

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 22:22:46 2026
    275
    AXNT20 KNHC 032222
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is analyzed along 21W south of 20N, moving W at
    10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
    from 09N to 16N, E of 22W.

    A tropical wave is along 48W, south of 20N, moving W at around 15
    kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished
    this evening.

    A tropical wave is along 63W, south of 21N, moving west at around
    15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at
    this time.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
    near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N29W and then to
    11N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N50W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 22W and 35W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Scattered moderate convection is focused within 30 nm on either
    side of a pair of surface trough axes, one of which is oriented
    just offshore Florida from near Apalachicola to Tampa Bay and
    another extending southeast from just west of the mouth of the
    Mississippi River to 27N89W. Winds blow toward lower pressure over
    Texas have increased to moderate to fresh offshore NE Mexico and
    within 90 nm of the Texas coast, and moderate to fresh NE winds
    have developed offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal
    surface trough is forming just inland. Otherwise, light to gentle
    winds prevail outside of convection. Seas are 3 ft or less.

    For the forecast, a diurnal trough will develop over the Yucatan
    Peninsula each afternoon supporting locally fresh easterly winds
    over the eastern Bay of Campeche through the forecast period.
    Elsewhere, weak high pressure prevails and will generally allow for
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas through the
    next few days. The presence of abundant tropical moisture will favor
    scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the eastern
    Gulf through the weekend.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
    Colombian low is maintaining fresh to strong trades and 5 to 8 ft
    seas offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Mainly moderate E
    winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin,
    except the NW Caribbean where gentle winds and slight seas are
    present. Scattered moderate convection is noted offshore Costa
    Rica and Panama, in associated with the eastern extension of the
    Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
    ridge and lower pressure in northern South America will maintain
    fresh to pulsing strong trades along with moderate seas over the
    central Caribbean, and over the western portion of the eastern
    Caribbean through Sat night. These trades are forecast to increase
    to fresh to strong speeds while expanding in coverage over the
    south- central portion of the basin on Mon. Winds reaching near
    gale are expected Tue night near Colombia and in the Gulf of
    Venezuela. Fresh to pulsing strong east winds are expected in the
    Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate or
    weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will continue across the
    remainder of the basin during the period.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough extending offshore Florida is inducing scattered
    moderate convection over and north of the northwest Bahamas. The
    remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence
    of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1023 mb located
    NE of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate
    seas prevail across much of the Atlantic S of 25N and away from
    any convection or tropical waves. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
    winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
    will continue over the waters W of about 73W through the end of
    the week as a mid-level low and surface trough gradually shift
    westward while at the same time abundant tropical moisture remains
    in place. A cold front will then approach from the NW late this
    weekend enhancing the potential for scattered and thunderstorms
    over the NW portion of the area. Gentle to moderate east to
    southeast winds are over the waters west of 74W. Otherwise, the
    subtropical ridge will provide for generally moderate or weaker
    winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters.

    $$
    Konarik

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 04:15:48 2026
    868
    AXNT20 KNHC 040415
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0415 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis
    is along 24N, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered
    moderate convection is affecting the islands.

    A tropical wave is along 50W, south of 20N, moving W at around 15
    kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern end
    of the wave axis and mainly from 15N to 18N between 46W and 53W.

    A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
    is along 65W, south of 21N, moving west at around 15 kt. Recent
    scatterometer data show the winds shift associated with the wave,
    mainly across the northern portion. No significant convection is
    associated with this wave at this time.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 10N27W to
    07N35W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N51W to NE Venezuela
    near 09N62W. Convection is limited across the area.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A ridge dominates most of the Gulf region supporting gentle to
    moderate winds, with the exception of fresh to strong winds just
    offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula due to the presence of a
    trough. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. A surface trough is analyzed
    over Florida and extends from 30N81W to 25N85W. Scattered
    thunderstorms are near the trough axis. Convection has flared-up
    over the Yucatan peninsula and SE Mexico.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate
    or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the
    waters through early next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with
    moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a
    diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
    Colombian low is maintaining fresh to strong trades and 5 to 8 ft
    seas offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Mainly moderate E
    winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin,
    except the NW Caribbean where gentle winds and slight seas are
    present. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
    parts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Similar convective
    activity is noted over portions of central America.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
    ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades
    along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. Winds over
    these waters will briefly diminish this weekend then once again
    increase to fresh to strong speeds early next week. Elsewhere,
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will continue
    across the remainder of the basin during the period.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A weak low pressure of 1016 mb is located near 30.5N61W. A surface
    trough extends from the low center to near 27N67W. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are near these features. A 1019 mb high
    pressure remains over the western Atlantic and is centered near
    30N72W. Its associated ridge reaches the Bahamas. Gentle to
    moderate east to southeast winds are seen over the waters west of
    74W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
    influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1024
    mb located NE of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh winds and
    moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic S of 25N and
    away from any convection or tropical waves. Elsewhere, moderate or
    weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will approach from the
    NW late this weekend enhancing the potential for scattered and
    thunderstorms over the NW portion of the area.

    $$
    GR

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 04:15:50 2026
    869
    AXNT20 KNHC 040415
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0415 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis
    is along 24N, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered
    moderate convection is affecting the islands.

    A tropical wave is along 50W, south of 20N, moving W at around 15
    kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern end
    of the wave axis and mainly from 15N to 18N between 46W and 53W.

    A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
    is along 65W, south of 21N, moving west at around 15 kt. Recent
    scatterometer data show the winds shift associated with the wave,
    mainly across the northern portion. No significant convection is
    associated with this wave at this time.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 10N27W to
    07N35W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N51W to NE Venezuela
    near 09N62W. Convection is limited across the area.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A ridge dominates most of the Gulf region supporting gentle to
    moderate winds, with the exception of fresh to strong winds just
    offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula due to the presence of a
    trough. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. A surface trough is analyzed
    over Florida and extends from 30N81W to 25N85W. Scattered
    thunderstorms are near the trough axis. Convection has flared-up
    over the Yucatan peninsula and SE Mexico.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate
    or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the
    waters through early next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with
    moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a
    diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
    Colombian low is maintaining fresh to strong trades and 5 to 8 ft
    seas offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Mainly moderate E
    winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin,
    except the NW Caribbean where gentle winds and slight seas are
    present. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
    parts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Similar convective
    activity is noted over portions of central America.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
    ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades
    along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. Winds over
    these waters will briefly diminish this weekend then once again
    increase to fresh to strong speeds early next week. Elsewhere,
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will continue
    across the remainder of the basin during the period.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A weak low pressure of 1016 mb is located near 30.5N61W. A surface
    trough extends from the low center to near 27N67W. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are near these features. A 1019 mb high
    pressure remains over the western Atlantic and is centered near
    30N72W. Its associated ridge reaches the Bahamas. Gentle to
    moderate east to southeast winds are seen over the waters west of
    74W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
    influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1024
    mb located NE of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh winds and
    moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic S of 25N and
    away from any convection or tropical waves. Elsewhere, moderate or
    weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will approach from the
    NW late this weekend enhancing the potential for scattered and
    thunderstorms over the NW portion of the area.

    $$
    GR

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 23:17:34 2026
    574
    AXNT20 KNHC 052317
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2315 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is analyzed along 19W, south of 20N, moving W at
    10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted with this feature at this
    time.

    A tropical wave is along 34N, south of 20N, moving W at around 10
    to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis and S
    of 12N.

    A tropical wave is along 64W, south of 20N, moving W at around 10
    to 15 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis
    between 57W and 69W.

    A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 77W,
    and extends from eastern Cuba to near western Colombia. No
    significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
    southwestward to 06N43W. The ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 10N58W.
    Aside from the convection described in the tropical wave section
    above, no activity is noted at this time.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region, anchored by a
    1015 mb high centered near 26N88W. Light to gentle winds prevail
    across most of the basin, except gentle to moderate winds over
    the Bay of Campeche likely due to the pressure gradient between
    the ridge and a surface trough. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the periphery of
    the high pressure, mainly affecting the land areas and nearshore
    waters.

    For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support light to
    gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters into late
    next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off
    western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface
    trough moving west off the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
    Colombian low is maintaining fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas
    offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar wind
    speeds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate
    winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue supporting
    fresh to locally strong trades along with moderate seas over the
    central Caribbean through the weekend. This gradient will tighten
    starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong, locally near-
    gale force, winds and rough seas, early next week. Elsewhere,
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
    through the middle of next week.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough extends from near 30N78W to 25N81W. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are associated with this feature.
    Another trough is analyzed along 72W from 21N to 28N with no
    dominates the remainder of the Atlantic, centered near 26N36W.
    Under this weather pattern, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
    seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally
    prevail across the area into the middle of next week, supporting
    moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A weak cold front will
    approach the northern waters then stall along 31N for the first
    part of next week.

    $$
    ERA

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 04:15:38 2026
    818
    AXNT20 KNHC 060414
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0400 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is analyzed along 21W, south of 20N, moving W at
    10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted with this feature at this
    time.

    A tropical wave is along 36N, south of 20N, moving W at around 10
    to 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis and S of
    15N.

    A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 67W, south of
    20N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near
    the northern end of the wave axis mainly between 56W and 69W.

    A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 78W,
    and extends from eastern Cuba to near western Colombia. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
    near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W, then westward
    to near 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to the coast of French
    Guiana near 05N52W. Convection is limited across the area.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region, anchored by a
    weak 1014 mb high pressure centered near 26N86W. Light to gentle
    winds prevail across most of the basin, except gentle to moderate
    winds over the Bay of Campeche likely due to the pressure gradient
    between the ridge and a surface trough. Seas are generally 1 to 3
    ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over south-central
    Florida and in the western Yucatan Peninsula.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
    gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters into late
    next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western
    Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving
    west off the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
    Colombian low is maintaining fresh to locally strong trade winds
    and 6 to 8 ft seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
    Similar wind speeds and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of
    Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
    prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave over Puerto Rico is supporting
    some convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms have developed
    over parts of Cuba, more concentrated in the central portion of
    the island. Similar convection is also affecting the Cayman
    Islands.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
    ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong
    trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. This
    gradient will tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of
    strong, locally near-gale force, winds and rough seas, early next
    week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
    seas will prevail through the middle of next week.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough extends from 28N71W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift related to the trough
    axis. This feature is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence
    of a ridge, with the main center of 1026 mb located midway between
    the Azores and the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient between
    this high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is promoting
    fresh to strong N to NE winds N of 18N and E of 21W, including
    the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range with these
    winds. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere,
    except just offshore Hispaniola where moderate to fresh winds are
    noted.

    For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally prevail
    across the area into the middle of next week, producing a weak
    pressure gradient. This will support moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas. A weak cold front will approach the northern waters
    then stall along 31N for the first part of week.


    $$
    GR

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 04:15:42 2026
    834
    AXNT20 KNHC 060415
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0400 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is analyzed along 21W, south of 20N, moving W at
    10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted with this feature at this
    time.

    A tropical wave is along 36N, south of 20N, moving W at around 10
    to 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis and S of
    15N.

    A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 67W, south of
    20N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near
    the northern end of the wave axis mainly between 56W and 69W.

    A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 78W,
    and extends from eastern Cuba to near western Colombia. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
    near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W, then westward
    to near 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to the coast of French
    Guiana near 05N52W. Convection is limited across the area.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region, anchored by a
    weak 1014 mb high pressure centered near 26N86W. Light to gentle
    winds prevail across most of the basin, except gentle to moderate
    winds over the Bay of Campeche likely due to the pressure gradient
    between the ridge and a surface trough. Seas are generally 1 to 3
    ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over south-central
    Florida and in the western Yucatan Peninsula.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
    gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters into late
    next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western
    Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving
    west off the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
    Colombian low is maintaining fresh to locally strong trade winds
    and 6 to 8 ft seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
    Similar wind speeds and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of
    Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
    prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave over Puerto Rico is supporting
    some convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms have developed
    over parts of Cuba, more concentrated in the central portion of
    the island. Similar convection is also affecting the Cayman
    Islands.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
    ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong
    trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. This
    gradient will tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of
    strong, locally near-gale force, winds and rough seas, early next
    week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
    seas will prevail through the middle of next week.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough extends from 28N71W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift related to the trough
    axis. This feature is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence
    of a ridge, with the main center of 1026 mb located midway between
    the Azores and the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient between
    this high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is promoting
    fresh to strong N to NE winds N of 18N and E of 21W, including
    the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range with these
    winds. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere,
    except just offshore Hispaniola where moderate to fresh winds are
    noted.

    For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally prevail
    across the area into the middle of next week, producing a weak
    pressure gradient. This will support moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas. A weak cold front will approach the northern waters
    then stall along 31N for the first part of week.


    $$
    GR

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 04:16:22 2026
    516
    AXNT20 KNHC 060415
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0400 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is analyzed along 21W, south of 20N, moving W at
    10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted with this feature at this
    time.

    A tropical wave is along 36N, south of 20N, moving W at around 10
    to 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis and S of
    15N.

    A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 67W, south of
    20N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near
    the northern end of the wave axis mainly between 56W and 69W.

    A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 78W,
    and extends from eastern Cuba to near western Colombia. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
    near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W, then westward
    to near 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to the coast of French
    Guiana near 05N52W. Convection is limited across the area.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region, anchored by a
    weak 1014 mb high pressure centered near 26N86W. Light to gentle
    winds prevail across most of the basin, except gentle to moderate
    winds over the Bay of Campeche likely due to the pressure gradient
    between the ridge and a surface trough. Seas are generally 1 to 3
    ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over south-central
    Florida and in the western Yucatan Peninsula.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
    gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters into late
    next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western
    Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving
    west off the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
    Colombian low is maintaining fresh to locally strong trade winds
    and 6 to 8 ft seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
    Similar wind speeds and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of
    Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
    prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave over Puerto Rico is supporting
    some convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms have developed
    over parts of Cuba, more concentrated in the central portion of
    the island. Similar convection is also affecting the Cayman
    Islands.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
    ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong
    trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. This
    gradient will tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of
    strong, locally near-gale force, winds and rough seas, early next
    week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
    seas will prevail through the middle of next week.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough extends from 28N71W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift related to the trough
    axis. This feature is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence
    of a ridge, with the main center of 1026 mb located midway between
    the Azores and the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient between
    this high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is promoting
    fresh to strong N to NE winds N of 18N and E of 21W, including
    the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range with these
    winds. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere,
    except just offshore Hispaniola where moderate to fresh winds are
    noted.

    For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally prevail
    across the area into the middle of next week, producing a weak
    pressure gradient. This will support moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas. A weak cold front will approach the northern waters
    then stall along 31N for the first part of week.

    $$
    GR

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 08:30:50 2026
    100
    AXNT20 KNHC 060830
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0830 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W, south of 20N, moving W
    at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to
    12N between 22W and 25W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 37N, south of 20N, moving W
    at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave
    axis and S of 15N.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W, south of 20N, moving W
    at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the northern end
    of the wave axis mainly between 65W and 70W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, and extends from central
    Cuba southward into the far eastern Pacific. No significant
    convection is noted in the Caribbean waters with this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W, then
    westward to near 07N43W. The ITCZ continues from 07N43W to near
    08N58W. Convection is limited across the area, aside from the
    areas noted in the tropical waves section above.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    High pressure prevails across the Gulf region, anchored by a 1014
    mb high pressure centered near 26N87W. Light to gentle winds are
    in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are
    over the SW Gulf. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Slight
    seas dominate the forecast waters.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
    gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters into late
    next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off
    western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface
    trough moving west off the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
    Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds
    and moderate seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of
    Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the central
    Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
    prevail elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
    ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong
    trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. The
    pressure gradient will tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader
    area of strong, locally near-gale force, winds and rough seas,
    early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
    moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A pair of surface troughs are over the far western Atlantic
    waters. One off the coast of Florida, and the other surface
    trough extends from 26N71W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. These
    feature are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
    remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence
    of high pressure, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 25N54W.
    Light to gentle winds prevail near the high center, as well as
    along the ridge extending from the high along 26N. A stronger area
    of high pressure, 1025 mb, is centered north of the area near
    35N22W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure,
    and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds N of
    the monsoon trough and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate winds
    prevail. Seas across the forecast area are in the moderate range.

    For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally
    prevail across the area into the middle of next week, producing a
    weak pressure gradient. The weak pressure gradient will support
    moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A weak cold front will
    approach the northern waters then stall along 31N for the first
    part of next week.

    $$
    AL

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 23:06:56 2026
    508
    AXNT20 KNHC 072306
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Tue Sep 08 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2245 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W from 03N
    to 19N. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Isolated
    showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm west of the wave
    from 05N to 07N.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W. It is
    moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    within 240 nm east of the wave from 05N to 08N. Isolated showers
    and thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the wave from 11N to
    18N.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 71W south
    of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers
    and thunderstorms are possible under high cloudiness from 12N to
    17N between 68W and 72W.

    A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86.5W south of 19N.
    It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. For related convection
    information, please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical
    Weather Discussion (TWDEP)

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and
    continues southwestward to 13N24W and west-southwestward to
    09N40W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N47W. It resumes
    near 08N51W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is within
    240 nm south of the ITCZ between 40W and 46W. Similar convection
    is well to the southeast of the trough from 06N to 10N east of
    22W to well inland Africa.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A stationary front is draped across northern Florida and the
    Florida panhandle. The combination of this frontal boundary,
    with deep moisture already in place over the area and an upper-
    level trough digging southward over the southeastern U.S. and a
    trough that extends from central Florida southwestward to
    just of Key and near the Dry Tortugas will continue to favor
    scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the
    eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, the Florida
    peninsula and the southern portion of Alabama, Mississippi and
    southeastern Louisiana going into the middle part of the week.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also evident south of 25N
    west of 90W while isolated showers and thunderstorms are
    elsewhere.

    Weak high pressure of 1015 mb is centered near 27N93W. Its
    associated weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for
    light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin per
    latest buoy observations, scatterometer data and as few
    satellite altimeter data passes.

    For the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure will
    persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a
    weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle
    winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse
    to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula
    during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving
    westward from the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
    and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
    sustaining fresh to locally strong trades along with moderate
    seas over the south- central Caribbean. Mostly moderate trades
    and moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of
    the northwestern portion of the sea, where light to gentle winds
    are continuing.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
    high pressure and the lower pressure in northern South America
    will begin to tighten tonight, leading to an increase in areal
    coverage of strong winds, locally to near-gale force, through
    Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas
    will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds.
    Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
    will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave
    into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu
    morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front is analyzed extending from weak low pressure
    of 1014 mb near 31.5N71W southwestward to 30N76W and westward to
    inland northern Florida near 30N81W. To the south and southeast
    of this frontal boundary, numerous showers and thunderstorms are
    occurring northwest and north of a line from 31N61W to 27N70W and
    to 23N78W. A mid to upper-level northeast to southwest oriented
    trough situated north of Puerto Rico and the Hispaniola continues
    to support scattered showers and thunderstorms from 18.5N to
    23.5N between 62W and 70.5W. High pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb
    high center near 27N55W pretty much controls the wind regime
    throughout the remainder of the basin. A stronger high center
    of 1027 mb is north of the area at 35W24W. A ridge stretches
    from this high center southwestward to the 1022 mb high and to
    near 25N70W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
    a pair of tropical waves moving through the tropical Atlantic
    region is supporting fresh to strong winds north of 11N and east
    of 27W. These winds are generating rough seas over these waters.
    Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are over the waters west
    of about 70W. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas
    are present elsewhere.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
    of 1022 mb and ridge will gradually shift northeastward and
    strengthen through mid week. This pattern will support moderate
    or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue, then moderate to
    fresh winds south of about 21N Tue night through Thu. A weak cold
    front will stall near 31N through mid week before lifting
    northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across
    these northern waters west of 60W through Tue night.

    $$
    Aguirre

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 23:07:00 2026
    686
    AXNT20 KNHC 072306
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Tue Sep 08 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2245 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W from 03N
    to 19N. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Isolated
    showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm west of the wave
    from 05N to 07N.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W. It is
    moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    within 240 nm east of the wave from 05N to 08N. Isolated showers
    and thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the wave from 11N to
    18N.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 71W south
    of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers
    and thunderstorms are possible under high cloudiness from 12N to
    17N between 68W and 72W.

    A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86.5W south of 19N.
    It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. For related convection
    information, please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical
    Weather Discussion (TWDEP)

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and
    continues southwestward to 13N24W and west-southwestward to
    09N40W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N47W. It resumes
    near 08N51W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is within
    240 nm south of the ITCZ between 40W and 46W. Similar convection
    is well to the southeast of the trough from 06N to 10N east of
    22W to well inland Africa.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A stationary front is draped across northern Florida and the
    Florida panhandle. The combination of this frontal boundary,
    with deep moisture already in place over the area and an upper-
    level trough digging southward over the southeastern U.S. and a
    trough that extends from central Florida southwestward to
    just of Key and near the Dry Tortugas will continue to favor
    scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the
    eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, the Florida
    peninsula and the southern portion of Alabama, Mississippi and
    southeastern Louisiana going into the middle part of the week.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also evident south of 25N
    west of 90W while isolated showers and thunderstorms are
    elsewhere.

    Weak high pressure of 1015 mb is centered near 27N93W. Its
    associated weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for
    light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin per
    latest buoy observations, scatterometer data and as few
    satellite altimeter data passes.

    For the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure will
    persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a
    weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle
    winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse
    to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula
    during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving
    westward from the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
    and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
    sustaining fresh to locally strong trades along with moderate
    seas over the south- central Caribbean. Mostly moderate trades
    and moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of
    the northwestern portion of the sea, where light to gentle winds
    are continuing.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
    high pressure and the lower pressure in northern South America
    will begin to tighten tonight, leading to an increase in areal
    coverage of strong winds, locally to near-gale force, through
    Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas
    will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds.
    Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
    will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave
    into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu
    morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front is analyzed extending from weak low pressure
    of 1014 mb near 31.5N71W southwestward to 30N76W and westward to
    inland northern Florida near 30N81W. To the south and southeast
    of this frontal boundary, numerous showers and thunderstorms are
    occurring northwest and north of a line from 31N61W to 27N70W and
    to 23N78W. A mid to upper-level northeast to southwest oriented
    trough situated north of Puerto Rico and the Hispaniola continues
    to support scattered showers and thunderstorms from 18.5N to
    23.5N between 62W and 70.5W. High pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb
    high center near 27N55W pretty much controls the wind regime
    throughout the remainder of the basin. A stronger high center
    of 1027 mb is north of the area at 35W24W. A ridge stretches
    from this high center southwestward to the 1022 mb high and to
    near 25N70W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
    a pair of tropical waves moving through the tropical Atlantic
    region is supporting fresh to strong winds north of 11N and east
    of 27W. These winds are generating rough seas over these waters.
    Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are over the waters west
    of about 70W. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas
    are present elsewhere.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
    of 1022 mb and ridge will gradually shift northeastward and
    strengthen through mid week. This pattern will support moderate
    or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue, then moderate to
    fresh winds south of about 21N Tue night through Thu. A weak cold
    front will stall near 31N through mid week before lifting
    northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across
    these northern waters west of 60W through Tue night.

    $$
    Aguirre

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 05:24:58 2026
    433
    AXNT20 KNHC 080524
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0500 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W from 03N
    to 19N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant
    convection is noted at this time.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W, moving
    westward near 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at
    this time.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south
    of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted along the wave axis.

    A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W south of 19N, moving
    westward at 10 to 15 kt. For related convection information,
    please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    (TWDEP).

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues
    southwestward to 08N30W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
    07N37W. It resumes near 07N41W to 06N49W. Scattered showers are
    noted along and south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
    convection is along the ITCZ between 41W and 49W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A stationary front is draped across northern Florida and the
    Florida panhandle. The combination of this frontal boundary,
    with deep moisture already in place over the area and an upper-
    level trough digging southward over the southeastern U.S. and a
    trough that extends from central Florida southwestward to just west
    of Key West and near the Dry Tortugas will continue to favor
    scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the
    eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, the Florida
    peninsula and the southern portion of Alabama, Mississippi and
    southeastern Louisiana going into the middle part of the week.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also evident south of 25N
    west of 90W while isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere.

    Weak high pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 28N94W. Its
    associated weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for light
    to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin per latest buoy
    observations, scatterometer data and a few satellite altimeter
    data passes.

    For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will persist
    across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak
    pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds
    and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh
    with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the
    evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the
    peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
    and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
    sustaining fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over
    the south-central Caribbean. Mostly moderate trades and moderate
    are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the northwestern
    portion of the sea, where light to gentle winds are continuing.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas over
    the south-central Caribbean will increase in areal coverage
    through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough
    seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong
    winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
    seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical
    wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu
    morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front is analyzed extending from weak low pressure
    of 1015 mb near 31N72W southwestward to 30N81W. To the south of
    this boundary, a surface trough is analyzed along 79W and S of
    29N. Scattered moderate convection prevails near the trough mainly
    W of 77W. A mid to upper-level northeast to southwest oriented
    trough situated north of Hispaniola continues to support
    scattered showers S of 25N between 64W and 70W. A high center of
    1028 mb is north of the area at 34W28W. A ridge stretches across
    the remainder of the basin. The pressure gradient between the
    high pressure and a pair of tropical waves moving through the
    tropical Atlantic region is supporting fresh to strong winds north
    of 11N and east of 27W. These winds are generating rough seas
    over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are
    over the waters west of about 70W. Moderate to fresh trades along
    with moderate seas are present elsewhere.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
    will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid
    week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas through Tue, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N
    Tue night through Thu. The stationary front will linger near 31N
    through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms
    will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through
    Tue night.

    $$
    ERA

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 05:25:00 2026
    434
    AXNT20 KNHC 080524
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0500 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W from 03N
    to 19N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant
    convection is noted at this time.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W, moving
    westward near 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at
    this time.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south
    of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted along the wave axis.

    A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W south of 19N, moving
    westward at 10 to 15 kt. For related convection information,
    please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    (TWDEP).

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues
    southwestward to 08N30W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
    07N37W. It resumes near 07N41W to 06N49W. Scattered showers are
    noted along and south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
    convection is along the ITCZ between 41W and 49W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A stationary front is draped across northern Florida and the
    Florida panhandle. The combination of this frontal boundary,
    with deep moisture already in place over the area and an upper-
    level trough digging southward over the southeastern U.S. and a
    trough that extends from central Florida southwestward to just west
    of Key West and near the Dry Tortugas will continue to favor
    scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the
    eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, the Florida
    peninsula and the southern portion of Alabama, Mississippi and
    southeastern Louisiana going into the middle part of the week.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also evident south of 25N
    west of 90W while isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere.

    Weak high pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 28N94W. Its
    associated weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for light
    to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin per latest buoy
    observations, scatterometer data and a few satellite altimeter
    data passes.

    For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will persist
    across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak
    pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds
    and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh
    with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the
    evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the
    peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
    and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
    sustaining fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over
    the south-central Caribbean. Mostly moderate trades and moderate
    are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the northwestern
    portion of the sea, where light to gentle winds are continuing.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas over
    the south-central Caribbean will increase in areal coverage
    through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough
    seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong
    winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
    seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical
    wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu
    morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front is analyzed extending from weak low pressure
    of 1015 mb near 31N72W southwestward to 30N81W. To the south of
    this boundary, a surface trough is analyzed along 79W and S of
    29N. Scattered moderate convection prevails near the trough mainly
    W of 77W. A mid to upper-level northeast to southwest oriented
    trough situated north of Hispaniola continues to support
    scattered showers S of 25N between 64W and 70W. A high center of
    1028 mb is north of the area at 34W28W. A ridge stretches across
    the remainder of the basin. The pressure gradient between the
    high pressure and a pair of tropical waves moving through the
    tropical Atlantic region is supporting fresh to strong winds north
    of 11N and east of 27W. These winds are generating rough seas
    over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are
    over the waters west of about 70W. Moderate to fresh trades along
    with moderate seas are present elsewhere.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
    will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid
    week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas through Tue, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N
    Tue night through Thu. The stationary front will linger near 31N
    through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms
    will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through
    Tue night.

    $$
    ERA

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 08:34:20 2026
    697
    AXNT20 KNHC 080834
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0830 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W from 03N
    to 19N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between
    43W and 48W.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 56W, moving
    westward near 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 11N to 17N between 52W and 57W.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 78W, south of
    19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted along the wave axis S of 12N.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, and continues
    southwestward to 09N27W. The ITCZ continues from 09N27W to
    07N40W. It resumes near 07N41W to 06N49W. Scattered showers are
    noted along and south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between
    14W and 20W, and from 05N to 08N between 26N and 32W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A cold front extends across the eastern waters from central
    Florida to Mississippi. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in
    the vicinity of the front. A surface trough has moved westward off
    the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds
    are in the vicinity of the trough. Light to gentle winds are over
    the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
    basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient.
    This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas
    over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate
    seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due
    to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula
    each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
    Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong
    trades along with moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean.
    Moderate to fresh trades and moderate are over the rest of basin,
    with the exception of the northwestern waters, where light to
    gentle winds are noted.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to
    near- gale force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly
    through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the
    persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will
    accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters
    early Wed through Thu morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from near 31N69W to central Florida.
    Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front.
    High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N,
    anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 33N31W. Fresh to strong
    winds are noted N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds
    prevail S of 22N and E of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds generally
    prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range from 15N to 28N
    and E of 45W. Mainly moderate seas dominate the remainder of the
    discussion waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from
    the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas
    will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid
    week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas today, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N tonight
    through Thu. A stationary front will linger near 31N through mid
    week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will
    remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through
    tonight.

    $$
    AL

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 08:34:22 2026
    636
    AXNT20 KNHC 080833
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0830 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W from 03N
    to 19N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between
    43W and 48W.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 56W, moving
    westward near 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 11N to 17N between 52W and 57W.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 78W, south of
    19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted along the wave axis S of 12N.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, and continues
    southwestward to 09N27W. The ITCZ continues from 09N27W to
    07N40W. It resumes near 07N41W to 06N49W. Scattered showers are
    noted along and south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between
    14W and 20W, and from 05N to 08N between 26N and 32W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A cold front extends across the eastern waters from central
    Florida to Mississippi. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in
    the vicinity of the front. A surface trough has moved westward off
    the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds
    are in the vicinity of the trough. Light to gentle winds are over
    the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
    basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient.
    This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas
    over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate
    seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due
    to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula
    each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
    Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong
    trades along with moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean.
    Moderate to fresh trades and moderate are over the rest of basin,
    with the exception of the northwestern waters, where light to
    gentle winds are noted.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to
    near- gale force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly
    through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the
    persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will
    accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters
    early Wed through Thu morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from near 31N69W to central Florida.
    Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front.
    High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N,
    anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 33N31W. Fresh to strong
    winds are noted N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds
    prevail S of 22N and E of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds generally
    prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range from 15N to 28N
    and E of 45W. Mainly moderate seas dominate the remainder of the
    discussion waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from
    the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas
    will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid
    week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas today, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N tonight
    through Thu. A stationary front will linger near 31N through mid
    week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will
    remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through
    tonight.

    $$
    AL

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 17:40:28 2026
    606
    AXNT20 KNHC 081740
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 02N
    to 18N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between
    44W and 53W.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W from 19N
    southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 07N to 19N between 53W and 60W.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 79W, south of
    19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted S of 12N between 80W and 84W, likely enhanced
    by the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and continues
    southwestward to 10N28W. The ITCZ continues from 10N28W to
    08N35W to 10N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is seen from 07N to 15N and E of 22W. Scattered
    moderate convection is also seen from 05N to 10N between 25W and
    34W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A cold front extends across the eastern waters from central
    FL to south-central LA. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
    are in the vicinity of the front. A surface trough has moved
    westward off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf. Gentle to
    moderate winds are in the vicinity of the trough. Light to gentle
    winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas are noted
    elsewhere.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
    basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient.
    This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas
    over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate
    seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to
    a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
    Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong
    trades along with moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean.
    Moderate to fresh trades and moderate are over the rest of basin,
    with the exception of the northwestern waters, where light to
    gentle winds are noted.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to
    near- gale force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly
    through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the
    persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will
    accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters
    early Wed through Thu morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from near 31N70W to central Florida. A
    pre-frontal trough also extends from just north of Hispaniola to
    near 32N58W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of
    the front and trough. Convergent surface winds are also supporting
    scattered moderate convection near the SW Bahamas and FL Straits.
    High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N,
    anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N34W. Fresh to strong
    winds are noted N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds
    prevail S of 22N and E of 60W, with fresh to locally strong winds
    occurring near the Tropical Wave analyzed near 47W. Gentle to
    moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft
    range from 14N to 28N between 21W and 55W. Mainly moderate seas
    dominate the remainder of the discussion waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from
    the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas
    will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid
    week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas today, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N tonight
    through Thu. A stationary front will linger near 31N through mid
    week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will
    remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through
    tonight.

    $$
    Adams

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 17:40:30 2026
    605
    AXNT20 KNHC 081740
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 02N
    to 18N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between
    44W and 53W.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W from 19N
    southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 07N to 19N between 53W and 60W.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 79W, south of
    19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted S of 12N between 80W and 84W, likely enhanced
    by the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and continues
    southwestward to 10N28W. The ITCZ continues from 10N28W to
    08N35W to 10N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is seen from 07N to 15N and E of 22W. Scattered
    moderate convection is also seen from 05N to 10N between 25W and
    34W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A cold front extends across the eastern waters from central
    FL to south-central LA. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
    are in the vicinity of the front. A surface trough has moved
    westward off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf. Gentle to
    moderate winds are in the vicinity of the trough. Light to gentle
    winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas are noted
    elsewhere.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
    basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient.
    This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas
    over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate
    seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to
    a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
    Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong
    trades along with moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean.
    Moderate to fresh trades and moderate are over the rest of basin,
    with the exception of the northwestern waters, where light to
    gentle winds are noted.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to
    near- gale force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly
    through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the
    persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will
    accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters
    early Wed through Thu morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from near 31N70W to central Florida. A
    pre-frontal trough also extends from just north of Hispaniola to
    near 32N58W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of
    the front and trough. Convergent surface winds are also supporting
    scattered moderate convection near the SW Bahamas and FL Straits.
    High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N,
    anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N34W. Fresh to strong
    winds are noted N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds
    prevail S of 22N and E of 60W, with fresh to locally strong winds
    occurring near the Tropical Wave analyzed near 47W. Gentle to
    moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft
    range from 14N to 28N between 21W and 55W. Mainly moderate seas
    dominate the remainder of the discussion waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from
    the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas
    will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid
    week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas today, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N tonight
    through Thu. A stationary front will linger near 31N through mid
    week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will
    remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through
    tonight.

    $$
    Adams

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 22:45:44 2026
    263
    AXNT20 KNHC 082245
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave along 17W north of 03N is moving into the eastern
    Atlantic at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident
    from 10N to 15N between 17W and 22W.

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 49W from 02N
    to 18N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between
    50W and 55W.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 60W from 19N
    southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 58W and 62W.

    A central western tropical wave has its axis near 82W, south of
    19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 21N between 80W
    and 85W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N16W, and continues
    southwestward to 09N30W. The ITCZ continues from 09N30W to 08N35W
    to 10N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
    seen from 06N to 11N between 30W and 35W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A stationary front extends across the eastern waters from Venice,
    Florida to south-central Louisiana. A few showers and thunderstorms
    are in the vicinity of the front. A surface trough persists over
    the southwest Gulf, northeast of Veracruz. Gentle to moderate
    winds are active over the central and west-central Gulf north of
    the trough. Light to gentle winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle
    winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
    through the weekend, producing a weak pressure gradient. This
    will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over
    much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas
    off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a
    diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An upper low is centered between Panama and Jamaica, supporting
    clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean
    between Cuba and Belize. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is
    supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over
    the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and
    moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the
    northwestern waters, where light to gentle winds are noted.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally
    to near- gale force, through Wed night before diminishing
    modestly through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters
    with the persistent strong winds. Fresh to locally strong winds
    will pulse tonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate
    or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large
    easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N
    Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from Bermuda to Fort Pierce Florida. A
    pre-frontal trough also extends from 31N63W to the Windward
    Passage. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along the
    trough from 25N to 30N. The subtropical ridge dominates the
    remainder of the basin, anchored by 1027 mb high pressure near
    31N38W, and extending westward through the northwest Bahamas.
    This pattern is supporting gentle breezes and 3-5 ft seas along
    the ridge axis through the Bahamas, and moderate to fresh NE winds
    and 6-9 ft seas south of the ridge.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will gradually shift
    northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This will cause
    winds to increase slightly S of 21N through Thu. A stationary
    front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting
    northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across
    these northern waters W of 60W through tonight.

    $$
    Christensen

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 04:42:42 2026
    039
    AXNT20 KNHC 090442
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0430 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave along 19W north of 03N is moving into the eastern
    Atlantic at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident
    from 05N to 17N and E of 24W.

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W from 02N
    to 18N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers
    are noted along the wave axis.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 61W from 19N
    southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 58W and 64W.

    A central western tropical wave has its axis near 83W, south of
    19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted along the northern half of the wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues
    southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues from 10N32W to 08N48W.
    Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 200 nm on
    either side of the boundaries and E of 38W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A stationary front extends across the eastern waters from Venice,
    Florida to south-central Louisiana. Scattered showers are in the
    vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are active over
    the central and west-central Gulf north of the trough. Light to
    gentle winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas
    are noted elsewhere.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
    through the weekend, producing a weak pressure gradient. This
    will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over
    much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas
    off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a
    diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An upper-level low is centered between Panama and Jamaica,
    supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the
    northwest Caribbean between Cuba and Belize. The pressure gradient
    between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian
    low is supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas
    over the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and
    moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the
    northwestern waters, where light to gentle winds are noted.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the
    Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near-gale
    force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri.
    Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent
    strong winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse tonight in the
    Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
    to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany
    a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed
    through Thu morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from Bermuda to Fort Pierce Florida. A
    pre-frontal trough extends from 29N61W to 20N72W. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are active along the trough N of 25N
    between 53W-66W. The subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of
    the basin, anchored by 1027 mb high pressure near 34N33W, and
    extending westward through the northwest Bahamas. This pattern is
    supporting gentle breezes and 3-5 ft seas along the ridge axis
    through the Bahamas, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-9 ft
    seas south of the ridge.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will gradually shift
    northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This will cause
    winds to increase slightly S of 21N through Thu. The stationary
    front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting
    northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across
    these northern waters W of 60W through tonight.

    $$
    ERA

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 08:31:02 2026
    220
    AXNT20 KNHC 090830
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0830 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave has its axis near 20W north of 03N, moving
    westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is noted from 10N to 17N and E of 23W.

    A tropical wave has its axis near 53W from 02N to 18N, moving
    westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
    the wave axis.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 64W from 19N
    southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 60W and 64W.

    A central western tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of
    19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
    convection is noted with this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W, and continues
    southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues from 10N32W to
    09N51W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section
    above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
    from 05N to 10N between 33W and 40W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A stationary front extends across the eastern waters. Scattered
    showers are in the vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds
    are noted over the SW Gulf as well as south of the Florida
    panhandle. Light too gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Slight seas
    dominate the Gulf waters.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
    through the weekend, producing a weak pressure gradient. This
    will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over
    much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas
    off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a
    diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Strong to near gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the
    south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
    seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters, except for light
    to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the
    Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near-gale
    force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri.
    Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent
    strong winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse tonight in the
    Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
    to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany
    a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed
    through Thu morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from 31N62W to central Florida.
    Moderate winds are found N of the front. A surface trough extends
    from 29N61W to E Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is noted N of 27N within 180 nm E of the trough. Light
    to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 25N and W of 60W. The remainder
    of the waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1025
    mb high centered near 31N45W. Light to gentle winds are over the
    waters S of the monsoon trough and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh
    winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Moderate to
    rough seas prevail E of 40W, and S of 20N between 40W and 61W.
    Moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from
    the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas
    will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid
    week. This will cause winds to increase slightly S of 21N through
    Thu. A stationary front will linger over the NW waters through mid
    week before lifting northward.

    $$
    AL

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 08:31:08 2026
    219
    AXNT20 KNHC 090830
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0830 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave has its axis near 20W north of 03N, moving
    westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is noted from 10N to 17N and E of 23W.

    A tropical wave has its axis near 53W from 02N to 18N, moving
    westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
    the wave axis.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 64W from 19N
    southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 60W and 64W.

    A central western tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of
    19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
    convection is noted with this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W, and continues
    southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues from 10N32W to
    09N51W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section
    above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
    from 05N to 10N between 33W and 40W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A stationary front extends across the eastern waters. Scattered
    showers are in the vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds
    are noted over the SW Gulf as well as south of the Florida
    panhandle. Light too gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Slight seas
    dominate the Gulf waters.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
    through the weekend, producing a weak pressure gradient. This
    will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over
    much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas
    off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a
    diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Strong to near gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the
    south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
    seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters, except for light
    to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the
    Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near-gale
    force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri.
    Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent
    strong winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse tonight in the
    Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
    to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany
    a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed
    through Thu morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from 31N62W to central Florida.
    Moderate winds are found N of the front. A surface trough extends
    from 29N61W to E Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is noted N of 27N within 180 nm E of the trough. Light
    to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 25N and W of 60W. The remainder
    of the waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1025
    mb high centered near 31N45W. Light to gentle winds are over the
    waters S of the monsoon trough and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh
    winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Moderate to
    rough seas prevail E of 40W, and S of 20N between 40W and 61W.
    Moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from
    the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas
    will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid
    week. This will cause winds to increase slightly S of 21N through
    Thu. A stationary front will linger over the NW waters through mid
    week before lifting northward.

    $$
    AL

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 16:50:04 2026
    800
    AXNT20 KNHC 091649
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave has its axis near 21W from 02N to 19N, moving
    westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is noted from 10N to 18N and E of 27W.

    A tropical wave has its axis near 56W from 03N to 20N, moving
    westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
    from 10N to 17N between 53W and 62W.

    A tropical wave has its axis near 66W from 19N southward, moving
    westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are seen near the wave axis.

    A central western tropical wave has its axis near 87W, south of
    19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
    convection is noted with this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and continues
    southwestward to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W to
    09N54W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section
    above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
    from 05N to 11N between 39W and 50W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A warm front extends from the W coast of FL to a 1017 mb low
    pressure near 28N88W, with a dissipating stationary front and
    frontal remnant trough extending from the low to the Upper TX
    coast. Scattered moderate convection is forming N of these
    features, as well as in the SE Gulf. In the SW Gulf, a surface
    trough is aiding in the development of scattered moderate
    convection S of 22N and W of 94W. Light to gentle winds prevail
    elsewhere and slight seas dominate the Gulf waters.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist through the
    weekend, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas
    over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate
    seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to
    a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Strong to near gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the
    south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
    seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters, except for light
    to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the Windward Passage, in
    association with a surface trough over E Cuba.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to
    near- gale force, through tonight before diminishing modestly
    through Fri. Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the
    persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will
    accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters
    through Thu morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from 31N60W to central Florida.
    Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found N of the front. A
    surface trough extends from 32N57W to E Cuba. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted N of 27N within 200 nm E
    of the trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 25N and W
    of 60W. The remainder of the waters are dominated by high
    pressure, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 34N33W. Light
    to gentle winds are over the waters S of the monsoon trough and E
    of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the
    discussion waters. Moderate to rough seas prevail E of 40W, and S
    of 20N between 40W and 61W.

    For the forecast west of 55W, as high pressure in the central
    Atlantic strengthens into late this week, winds will increase S of
    21N to moderate to fresh through Thu. A stationary front will
    linger over the NW waters through tonight before lifting
    northward.

    $$
    Adams

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 16:50:08 2026
    801
    AXNT20 KNHC 091649
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave has its axis near 21W from 02N to 19N, moving
    westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is noted from 10N to 18N and E of 27W.

    A tropical wave has its axis near 56W from 03N to 20N, moving
    westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
    from 10N to 17N between 53W and 62W.

    A tropical wave has its axis near 66W from 19N southward, moving
    westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are seen near the wave axis.

    A central western tropical wave has its axis near 87W, south of
    19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
    convection is noted with this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and continues
    southwestward to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W to
    09N54W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section
    above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
    from 05N to 11N between 39W and 50W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A warm front extends from the W coast of FL to a 1017 mb low
    pressure near 28N88W, with a dissipating stationary front and
    frontal remnant trough extending from the low to the Upper TX
    coast. Scattered moderate convection is forming N of these
    features, as well as in the SE Gulf. In the SW Gulf, a surface
    trough is aiding in the development of scattered moderate
    convection S of 22N and W of 94W. Light to gentle winds prevail
    elsewhere and slight seas dominate the Gulf waters.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist through the
    weekend, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas
    over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate
    seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to
    a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Strong to near gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the
    south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
    seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters, except for light
    to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the Windward Passage, in
    association with a surface trough over E Cuba.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to
    near- gale force, through tonight before diminishing modestly
    through Fri. Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the
    persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will
    accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters
    through Thu morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from 31N60W to central Florida.
    Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found N of the front. A
    surface trough extends from 32N57W to E Cuba. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted N of 27N within 200 nm E
    of the trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 25N and W
    of 60W. The remainder of the waters are dominated by high
    pressure, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 34N33W. Light
    to gentle winds are over the waters S of the monsoon trough and E
    of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the
    discussion waters. Moderate to rough seas prevail E of 40W, and S
    of 20N between 40W and 61W.

    For the forecast west of 55W, as high pressure in the central
    Atlantic strengthens into late this week, winds will increase S of
    21N to moderate to fresh through Thu. A stationary front will
    linger over the NW waters through tonight before lifting
    northward.

    $$
    Adams

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 23:21:46 2026
    786
    AXNT20 KNHC 092321
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2315 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis
    is near 22W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
    Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
    10N to 18N between 20W and 30W.

    A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is
    near 59W, south of 20N and extends into Guyana, moving westward
    at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave
    axis. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are related to the
    wave from 15N to 18N between 56W and 59W.

    A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along
    68W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave
    supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This
    convective activity is affecting Dominican Republic.

    The tropical wave previously located near 87W is now generating
    showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula and
    northern Guatemala. More information in the eastern Pacific
    Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP).

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 09N37W.
    The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 09N56W. Aside from convection
    noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and
    isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 30W
    and 56W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak 1017 mb low pressure is analyzed near 28N88W, with a
    dissipating stationary front to the E of the low center to near
    Tampa Bay, FL, and frontal trough extending from the low to near
    the Upper Texas coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
    noted over most of the Gulf, mainly N of 22N. Numerous showers
    and thunderstorms are over most of Florida. A diffluent pattern
    aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. In the SW
    Gulf, a surface trough runs from 24N92W to 19N95W. Light to
    gentle winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf waters, with the
    exception of gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas
    over the Bay of Campeche due to the presence of the above mentioned
    trough.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist into the start
    of next week, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight
    seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the
    western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal
    surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low
    continues to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas,
    over the south-central Caribbean. Mainly moderate to fresh
    winds, and moderate seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean
    waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
    the eastern Caribbean likely associated with the passage of a
    tropical wave. Convection has flared-up over most of Cuba, the
    Cayman Islands, and the Gulf of Honduras. An upper-level low
    spinning just south of the Cayman Islands is enhancing this
    convective activity.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the
    area and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to
    near-gale force, offshore Colombia through tonight before
    diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will prevail over
    these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate
    or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large
    easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N
    Atlantic waters through Thu morning.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N56W and continues
    westward to near 29N70W where it becomes a stationary front to
    near 31N79W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found N of
    the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen N of 29N
    and E of the front to about 50W. A surface trough is south of the
    front, and extends from 29N62W across the central Bahamas and
    central Cuba. This feature is generating scattered to numerous
    showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of the forecast waters
    are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high
    centered located SW of the Azores near 35N31W. The pressure
    gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures over NW
    Africa is promoting moderate to fresh NE winds N of 25N and E of
    30W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds
    are observed over most of the tropical Atlantic, and S of 22N
    between 60W and 70W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere.
    Seas are in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, as high pressure in the central
    Atlantic strengthens, winds will increase S of 21N to moderate to
    fresh through Thu. A stationary front will linger over the NW
    waters through tonight before lifting northward.

    $$
    GR

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 04:49:48 2026
    049
    AXNT20 KNHC 100449
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0430 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is near 23W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10
    to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis.

    A tropical wave is near 61W, south of 20N and extends into
    Guyana, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
    noted across the northern half of the wave environment.

    A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along
    70W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave
    supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly N of
    14N.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 20N17W, and continues southwestward to 09N37W.
    The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 11N56W. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of the boundaries
    and W of 21W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak 1016 mb low pressure is analyzed near 28N88W, with a
    surface trough extending from 27N94W to 28N84W. Scattered showers
    are noted near these features. To the SE, a diffluent pattern
    aloft is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms
    over most of Florida. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
    dominate the Gulf waters, with the exception of gentle to moderate
    easterly winds and moderate seas over the Bay of Campeche due to
    the presence of the above mentioned trough.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist into the start
    of next week, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight
    seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western
    Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface
    trough moving westward from the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low
    continues to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas,
    over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and
    moderate seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the eastern
    Caribbean likely associated with the passage of a tropical wave.
    Convection has flared-up over most of Cuba, the Cayman Islands,
    and the Gulf of Honduras. An upper-level low spinning just south
    of the Cayman Islands is enhancing this convective activity.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the
    Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near- gale
    force, through tonight before diminishing modestly through Fri.
    Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent
    strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
    moderate seas will prevail.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N54W and continues
    westward to near 29N69W where it becomes a stationary front to
    near 29N70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found N of the front.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen N of 27N and E of
    the front to about 40W. A surface trough is south of the front,
    and extends from 26N73W to central Cuba. This feature is
    generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of
    the forecast waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a
    1025 mb high centered located SW of the Azores near 35N27W. The
    pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures
    over NW Africa is promoting moderate to fresh NE winds N of 25N
    and E of 30W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh
    trade winds are observed over most of the tropical Atlantic, and S
    of 22N between 60W and 70W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail
    elsewhere. Seas are in general moderate across the Atlantic
    forecast waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front over the NE waters
    will shift east of the area Thu. High pressure ridging will build
    across the region in the wake of the front. Light to gentle winds
    are expected in the vicinity of the ridge, N of 21N. Moderate to
    fresh winds S of 21N will diminish slightly by this weekend.

    $$
    ERA

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 08:32:16 2026
    772
    AXNT20 KNHC 100831
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0830 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W, south of 20N, moving
    westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 22W and 27W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, south of 20N and extends
    into Guyana, moving westward at 15 kt. Limited convection is in
    the vicinity of the wave.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W, south of 19N, moving
    westward at 15 to 20 kt. Limited convection is in the vicinity of
    the wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues
    southwestward to near 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to
    09N59W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section
    above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
    from 06N to 13N E of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 07N to 12N between 30W and 38W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak pressure gradient is over the discussion waters supporting
    gentle to locally moderate winds. These winds are generating
    mainly slight seas over the Gulf waters.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist into early next
    week, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas.
    Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western
    Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface
    trough moving westward from the peninsula each night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area
    and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds
    and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to
    moderate winds, and slight too locally moderate seas, are over
    the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas cover
    the remainder of the Caribbean waters.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
    through early next week. Moderate to rough seas will prevail over
    these waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
    moderate seas will prevail.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N50W and continues
    westward to near 28N60W where it becomes stationary to near
    29N70W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the
    front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N and W of 50W.
    Moderate to fresh winds are also over the far NE portion of the
    discussion waters, in the vicinity of the Canary Islands eastward
    toward the coast of Africa. Light to gentle winds dominate the
    remainder of the discussion waters. Moderate seas prevail over
    much of the area.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front over the NE waters
    will shift east of the area today. High pressure ridging will
    build across the region in the wake of the front. Light to gentle
    winds are expected in the vicinity of the ridge, N of 21N.
    Moderate to fresh winds S of 21N will diminish slightly by this
    weekend.

    $$
    AL

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 17:00:52 2026
    198
    AXNT20 KNHC 101700
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, south of 20N, moving
    westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 12N to 18N between 25W and 32W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W, south of 20N and extends
    into Venezuela, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection
    is in the vicinity of the wave.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 75, south of 19N, moving
    westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection near this wave is primarily
    associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough, described below.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and continues
    southwestward to near 13N22W, then northwestward to 15N29W, then
    southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 07N59W.
    Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above,
    scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
    04N to 14N and E of 22W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
    are also seen NW of the ITCZ, between the western end of the
    feature and the Lesser Antilles.

    The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
    across the far SW Caribbean. Numerous moderate and isolated
    strong convection is occurring S of 13N and W of 76W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A surface trough is analyzed from near the Mouth of the
    Missisippi River to near Galveston, TX, with a weak 1014 mb low
    along the trough. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of
    the trough and also along much of the TX coast. Another surface
    trough extends from SW FL to NW Cuba, with widely scattered
    moderate convection occurring across much of the eastern Gulf.
    Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is over the discussion waters
    supporting gentle to locally moderate winds. These winds are
    generating mainly slight seas over the Gulf waters.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist into early next
    week, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas.
    Starting this weekend, winds will pulse to fresh with moderate
    seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to
    a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area
    and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds
    and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean, with winds
    locally near gale-force offshore NW Colombia. Gentle to moderate
    winds, and slight to locally moderate seas, are over the NW
    Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas cover the
    remainder of the Caribbean waters.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
    offshore Colombia and western Venezuela through early next week.
    Moderate to rough seas will prevail over these waters. Elsewhere,
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N48W and continues
    westward to near 28N56W where it becomes stationary to near
    31N74W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the
    front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N and W of 50W, as
    well as E of 50W and S of 20N. Light to gentle winds dominate the
    remainder of the discussion waters. Moderate seas prevail over
    much of the area.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front over the NE waters
    will shift east of the area today, with high pressure building in
    its wake. Light to gentle winds are expected in the vicinity of
    the ridge, N of 21N. Moderate to fresh winds S of 21N will
    diminish slightly by the start of next week.

    $$
    Adams

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 17:00:54 2026
    197
    AXNT20 KNHC 101700
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, south of 20N, moving
    westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 12N to 18N between 25W and 32W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W, south of 20N and extends
    into Venezuela, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection
    is in the vicinity of the wave.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 75, south of 19N, moving
    westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection near this wave is primarily
    associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough, described below.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and continues
    southwestward to near 13N22W, then northwestward to 15N29W, then
    southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 07N59W.
    Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above,
    scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
    04N to 14N and E of 22W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
    are also seen NW of the ITCZ, between the western end of the
    feature and the Lesser Antilles.

    The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
    across the far SW Caribbean. Numerous moderate and isolated
    strong convection is occurring S of 13N and W of 76W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A surface trough is analyzed from near the Mouth of the
    Missisippi River to near Galveston, TX, with a weak 1014 mb low
    along the trough. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of
    the trough and also along much of the TX coast. Another surface
    trough extends from SW FL to NW Cuba, with widely scattered
    moderate convection occurring across much of the eastern Gulf.
    Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is over the discussion waters
    supporting gentle to locally moderate winds. These winds are
    generating mainly slight seas over the Gulf waters.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist into early next
    week, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas.
    Starting this weekend, winds will pulse to fresh with moderate
    seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to
    a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area
    and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds
    and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean, with winds
    locally near gale-force offshore NW Colombia. Gentle to moderate
    winds, and slight to locally moderate seas, are over the NW
    Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas cover the
    remainder of the Caribbean waters.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
    offshore Colombia and western Venezuela through early next week.
    Moderate to rough seas will prevail over these waters. Elsewhere,
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N48W and continues
    westward to near 28N56W where it becomes stationary to near
    31N74W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the
    front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N and W of 50W, as
    well as E of 50W and S of 20N. Light to gentle winds dominate the
    remainder of the discussion waters. Moderate seas prevail over
    much of the area.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front over the NE waters
    will shift east of the area today, with high pressure building in
    its wake. Light to gentle winds are expected in the vicinity of
    the ridge, N of 21N. Moderate to fresh winds S of 21N will
    diminish slightly by the start of next week.

    $$
    Adams

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 22:48:54 2026
    680
    AXNT20 KNHC 102248
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2245 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are moving
    westward over Guinea, Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone reaching
    the Atlantic waters. Based on model guidance, a new tropical wave
    follows this convective activity.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 30W, south of 20N, moving
    westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 12N between 30W and 40W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 67W, south of 20N and extends
    into Venezuela, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave appears to
    enhance convection over western Venezuela.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 76, south of 19N, moving
    westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave
    axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 14N30W to
    09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N42W to the coast of Guyana near
    07.5N59W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
    wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N
    between 40W and 56W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A 1016 mb low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf
    near the Mouth of the Mississippi River. A surface trough extends
    from the low center to near Galveston, TX. Scattered showers and
    thunderstorms are noted over most of the Gulf, mainly N of 22N.
    Numerous showers and thunderstorms are once again over most the
    Florida Peninsula. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce
    this convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms are also
    noted over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala. Otherwise,
    a weak pressure gradient is over the Gulf waters supporting
    gentle to locally moderate winds. Higher winds of 25 to 30 kt are
    observed per scatterometer data over the central Bay of Campeche,
    likely associated with the Yucatan trough. These winds are
    generating mainly slight seas over the basin, with the exception
    of slight to moderate seas over the central Bay of Campeche.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist through early next
    week, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas.
    Starting this weekend, winds will pulse to fresh with moderate
    seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to
    a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low continues
    to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over much of
    the central Caribbean, particularly S of 16N, and in the Gulf of
    Venezuela. Three altimeter passes indicate seas of 8 to 11 ft within
    these winds, mainly offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are
    also evident across the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds,
    and moderate seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters.
    Convection has flared-up over most of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and
    the NW Caribbean. An upper-level low spinning over the NW Caribbean
    is enhancing this convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms
    are also occurring over Hispaniola, and over parts of the SW Caribbean, including the Atlantic coast of SE Nicaragua.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
    offshore Colombia and western Venezuela through early next week.
    Moderate to rough seas will prevail over these waters. Elsewhere,
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from 30N48W to 28N60W to near 30.5N75W.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the
    front, more concentrated from 26N to 29N between 60W and 65W.
    Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are in the wake of the front.
    The remainder of the forecast waters are dominated by high pressure,
    anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure located E of Bermuda near
    32N60W, and another 1024 mb high pressure centered E of the Azores
    near 37N22W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
    lower pressures over NW Africa is promoting moderate to fresh NE
    winds N of 27N and E of 25W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate
    to fresh trade winds are observed over most of the tropical Atlantic,
    and S of 22N between 70W and 74W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail
    elsewhere. Seas are in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast
    waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build SW into the
    waters into the weekend, with light to gentle winds expected N of
    21N closest to the high, and moderate to fresh trades S of 21N.
    By the start of next week, winds will diminish some as the high
    weakens and the pressure gradient relaxes.

    $$
    GR

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 22:48:56 2026
    829
    AXNT20 KNHC 102248
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2245 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are moving
    westward over Guinea, Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone reaching
    the Atlantic waters. Based on model guidance, a new tropical wave
    follows this convective activity.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 30W, south of 20N, moving
    westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 12N between 30W and 40W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 67W, south of 20N and extends
    into Venezuela, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave appears to
    enhance convection over western Venezuela.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 76, south of 19N, moving
    westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave
    axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 14N30W to
    09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N42W to the coast of Guyana near
    07.5N59W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
    wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N
    between 40W and 56W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A 1016 mb low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf
    near the Mouth of the Mississippi River. A surface trough extends
    from the low center to near Galveston, TX. Scattered showers and
    thunderstorms are noted over most of the Gulf, mainly N of 22N.
    Numerous showers and thunderstorms are once again over most the
    Florida Peninsula. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce
    this convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms are also
    noted over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala. Otherwise,
    a weak pressure gradient is over the Gulf waters supporting
    gentle to locally moderate winds. Higher winds of 25 to 30 kt are
    observed per scatterometer data over the central Bay of Campeche,
    likely associated with the Yucatan trough. These winds are
    generating mainly slight seas over the basin, with the exception
    of slight to moderate seas over the central Bay of Campeche.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist through early next
    week, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas.
    Starting this weekend, winds will pulse to fresh with moderate
    seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to
    a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low continues
    to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over much of
    the central Caribbean, particularly S of 16N, and in the Gulf of
    Venezuela. Three altimeter passes indicate seas of 8 to 11 ft within
    these winds, mainly offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are
    also evident across the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds,
    and moderate seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters.
    Convection has flared-up over most of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and
    the NW Caribbean. An upper-level low spinning over the NW Caribbean
    is enhancing this convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms
    are also occurring over Hispaniola, and over parts of the SW Caribbean, including the Atlantic coast of SE Nicaragua.

    For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along
    about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
    ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
    offshore Colombia and western Venezuela through early next week.
    Moderate to rough seas will prevail over these waters. Elsewhere,
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from 30N48W to 28N60W to near 30.5N75W.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the
    front, more concentrated from 26N to 29N between 60W and 65W.
    Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are in the wake of the front.
    The remainder of the forecast waters are dominated by high pressure,
    anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure located E of Bermuda near
    32N60W, and another 1024 mb high pressure centered E of the Azores
    near 37N22W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
    lower pressures over NW Africa is promoting moderate to fresh NE
    winds N of 27N and E of 25W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate
    to fresh trade winds are observed over most of the tropical Atlantic,
    and S of 22N between 70W and 74W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail
    elsewhere. Seas are in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast
    waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build SW into the
    waters into the weekend, with light to gentle winds expected N of
    21N closest to the high, and moderate to fresh trades S of 21N.
    By the start of next week, winds will diminish some as the high
    weakens and the pressure gradient relaxes.

    $$
    GR

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 09:28:42 2026
    458
    AXNT20 KNHC 110928
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0830 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    Scattered moderate convection is located from 05N-15N between
    07W-20W including portions of Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal,
    Gambia and Mali. Based on model guidance, a new tropical wave
    follows this convective activity.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, south of 21N, moving
    westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
    08N-12N between 35W-40W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W, south of 21N and extends
    southward along the Venezuela-Colombia border, moving westward at
    15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
    noted west of the wave axis over Colombia and isolated moderate
    convection from 17N-19N between 73W-76W..

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, south of 20N, moving
    westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 14N-19N between 79W-83W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N44W.
    The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W.
    Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave,
    scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-11N west of 45W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak 1012 mb low pressure is located on the Louisiana near
    30N90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of
    29N between 85W-89W. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are
    occurring north of 20N west of 96W with seas 2-4 ft. Elsewhere,
    winds are gentle with seas 1-2 ft.

    For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh during late
    night and early morning hours off the W Yucatan peninsula
    beginning Sat night, due to a diurnal trough moving toward the SW
    Gulf each evening. Elsewhere, winds will be gentle to moderate for
    the next several days due to the influence of a weak high
    pressure over the N Gulf.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Fresh to strong trades with seas 6-8 ft are occurring over the
    central Caribbean between 67W-77W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to
    moderate with seas 2-5 ft. No additional convection is occurring
    over the Caribbean beyond that described in the tropical wave
    section.

    For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient from ridging
    north of the area to the Colombian Low will continue to force
    fresh to strong with locally near-gale trades over the central
    Caribbean for the next several days. From tonight through Mon
    night, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh
    with locally strong. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from 31N45W to 26N52W to 30N73W.
    Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the
    front. But winds on either side of the front are moderate or
    weaker. The pressure-gradient between the 1019 mb Bermuda-Azores
    High and lower pressure at the ITCZ and monsoon trough is forcing
    moderate to fresh trades with seas of 4-7 ft south of 22N. The
    exception is the fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas of 5-8
    ft near the NW Africa coast north of 20N and the Canary Islands.
    Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.

    For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola
    including the approach to the Windward Passage will be fresh to
    locally strong through early next week. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-
    Azores High situated along 30N should produce only moderate or
    weaker winds across the remaining forecast waters for the next
    several days.

    $$
    Landsea/Delgado

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 09:28:44 2026
    457
    AXNT20 KNHC 110928
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0830 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    Scattered moderate convection is located from 05N-15N between
    07W-20W including portions of Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal,
    Gambia and Mali. Based on model guidance, a new tropical wave
    follows this convective activity.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, south of 21N, moving
    westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
    08N-12N between 35W-40W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W, south of 21N and extends
    southward along the Venezuela-Colombia border, moving westward at
    15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
    noted west of the wave axis over Colombia and isolated moderate
    convection from 17N-19N between 73W-76W..

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, south of 20N, moving
    westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 14N-19N between 79W-83W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N44W.
    The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W.
    Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave,
    scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-11N west of 45W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak 1012 mb low pressure is located on the Louisiana near
    30N90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of
    29N between 85W-89W. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are
    occurring north of 20N west of 96W with seas 2-4 ft. Elsewhere,
    winds are gentle with seas 1-2 ft.

    For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh during late
    night and early morning hours off the W Yucatan peninsula
    beginning Sat night, due to a diurnal trough moving toward the SW
    Gulf each evening. Elsewhere, winds will be gentle to moderate for
    the next several days due to the influence of a weak high
    pressure over the N Gulf.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Fresh to strong trades with seas 6-8 ft are occurring over the
    central Caribbean between 67W-77W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to
    moderate with seas 2-5 ft. No additional convection is occurring
    over the Caribbean beyond that described in the tropical wave
    section.

    For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient from ridging
    north of the area to the Colombian Low will continue to force
    fresh to strong with locally near-gale trades over the central
    Caribbean for the next several days. From tonight through Mon
    night, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh
    with locally strong. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from 31N45W to 26N52W to 30N73W.
    Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the
    front. But winds on either side of the front are moderate or
    weaker. The pressure-gradient between the 1019 mb Bermuda-Azores
    High and lower pressure at the ITCZ and monsoon trough is forcing
    moderate to fresh trades with seas of 4-7 ft south of 22N. The
    exception is the fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas of 5-8
    ft near the NW Africa coast north of 20N and the Canary Islands.
    Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.

    For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola
    including the approach to the Windward Passage will be fresh to
    locally strong through early next week. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-
    Azores High situated along 30N should produce only moderate or
    weaker winds across the remaining forecast waters for the next
    several days.

    $$
    Landsea/Delgado

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 16:57:48 2026
    335
    AXNT20 KNHC 111657
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W, south of 21N, moving
    westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen W of the
    wave axis to near 40W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W, south of 21N and extends
    southward into central Colombia, moving westward at 15-20 kt.
    Scattered moderate convection is seen over the waters SE of
    Jamaica to near the wave axis.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W, south of 21N, moving
    westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
    the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N42W.
    The ITCZ extends from 10N42W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W.
    Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 07N-12N west of 46W.

    The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
    across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated
    strong convection is occurring S of 11N and W of 79W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Broad upper-level troughing and convergent surface winds over and
    across much of the northern Gulf support numerous moderate
    convection from Fort Myers, FL to South Padre Island, TX
    northward. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate winds and
    slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

    For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night off the
    W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal trough moving toward the SW
    Gulf. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker for the next
    several days due to the influence of weak high pressure centered
    over the N Gulf.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Fresh to strong trades with seas 6-8 ft are occurring over the
    central Caribbean between 67W-80W. Moderate to fresh trades and
    moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to
    moderate trades and slight seas prevail elsewhere. No additional
    convection is occurring over the Caribbean beyond that described
    in the tropical waves and monsoon trough/ITCZ sections.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient from ridging north of the
    area to the Colombian Low will continue to force strong to
    locally near-gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next
    several days. From tonight through Mon night, trades over the Gulf
    of Honduras will increase to fresh to locally strong. Elsewhere,
    winds will be moderate or weaker.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N43W to 26N53W to
    30N60W, with a frontal remnant trough then extending to 31N71W.
    Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 100 NM south of
    these features. The pressure- gradient between the 1020 mb
    Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure at the ITCZ and monsoon
    trough is forcing moderate to fresh trades with seas of 4-7 ft
    south of 22N. The exception is the fresh to locally strong NE
    winds with seas of 5-8 ft near the NW Africa coast north of 20N
    and the Canary Islands, as well as a region N of the ITCZ to 15N and
    W of 50W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5
    ft.

    For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola
    including the approach to the Windward Passage will be fresh to
    locally strong through early next week. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-
    Azores High situated along 30N should support only moderate or
    weaker winds across the remaining forecast waters for the next
    several days.

    $$
    Adams

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 23:02:38 2026
    167
    AXNT20 KNHC 112302
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2300 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W, south of 21N, moving
    westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave
    axis.

    A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along
    76W, south of 20N and extends southward into northern Colombia,
    moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is enhancing convection
    over eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

    A second tropical wave is over the NW Caribbean near 83W, south
    of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous
    showers and thunderstorms are along the wave axis affecting
    parts of Honduras and Nicaragua as well as Costa Rica.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N42W.
    The ITCZ extends from 10N42W to the coast of Guyana near 07N60W.
    Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
    moderate convection is noted N of the ITCZ to about 11N and W of
    50W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Convection continues to flare-up over the Gulf region, mainly
    north of 25N, and over the Florida Peninsula as abundant tropical
    moisture remains in place. A diffluent pattern aloft is also
    helping to induce this convective activity. A surface trough is
    analyzed over south Florida and runs from 28N78W to 24N83W.
    Another surface trough is over the central Bay of Campeche. Under
    this weather pattern, gentle to locally moderate winds with slight
    to moderate seas are noted.

    For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night off the
    W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal trough moving toward the SW
    Gulf. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through early
    next week due to the influence of weak high pressure centered
    over the N Gulf.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low continues
    to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over much of
    the central Caribbean, as noted on scatterometer data. Seas are 8
    to 11 ft per altimeter data over the south-central Caribbean.
    Elsewhere moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas
    are evident, with the exception of light to gentle winds over
    the NW Caribbean. Numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms,
    are occurring over Cuba and Jamaica. An upper-level low spinning
    over the NW Caribbean is enhancing this convective activity.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted over Hispaniola.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient from ridging north of the
    area to the Colombian Low will continue to force strong to locally
    near-gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several
    days. From late Sat through Mon night, trades over the Gulf of
    Honduras will increase to fresh to locally strong. Elsewhere,
    winds will be moderate or weaker.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A frontal trough extends from 31N44W to 25N53W to 31N65W. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are observed in association with this
    trough, mainly N of 25N between 55W and 70W. The remainder of
    the forecast waters are dominated by high pressure, with the main
    center of 1023 mb located near the Azores. The pressure gradient
    between the high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is
    promoting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of 20N and E of 20W,
    including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
    observed E of the Lesser Antilles to about 40W, and also just N
    of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
    are in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into
    the Windward Passage will be fresh to locally strong through
    early next week. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-Azores High situated
    along 30N should support moderate or weaker winds across the
    remaining forecast waters for the next several days.

    $$
    GR

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 23:02:40 2026
    166
    AXNT20 KNHC 112302
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2300 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W, south of 21N, moving
    westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave
    axis.

    A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along
    76W, south of 20N and extends southward into northern Colombia,
    moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is enhancing convection
    over eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

    A second tropical wave is over the NW Caribbean near 83W, south
    of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous
    showers and thunderstorms are along the wave axis affecting
    parts of Honduras and Nicaragua as well as Costa Rica.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N42W.
    The ITCZ extends from 10N42W to the coast of Guyana near 07N60W.
    Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
    moderate convection is noted N of the ITCZ to about 11N and W of
    50W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Convection continues to flare-up over the Gulf region, mainly
    north of 25N, and over the Florida Peninsula as abundant tropical
    moisture remains in place. A diffluent pattern aloft is also
    helping to induce this convective activity. A surface trough is
    analyzed over south Florida and runs from 28N78W to 24N83W.
    Another surface trough is over the central Bay of Campeche. Under
    this weather pattern, gentle to locally moderate winds with slight
    to moderate seas are noted.

    For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night off the
    W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal trough moving toward the SW
    Gulf. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through early
    next week due to the influence of weak high pressure centered
    over the N Gulf.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low continues
    to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over much of
    the central Caribbean, as noted on scatterometer data. Seas are 8
    to 11 ft per altimeter data over the south-central Caribbean.
    Elsewhere moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas
    are evident, with the exception of light to gentle winds over
    the NW Caribbean. Numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms,
    are occurring over Cuba and Jamaica. An upper-level low spinning
    over the NW Caribbean is enhancing this convective activity.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted over Hispaniola.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient from ridging north of the
    area to the Colombian Low will continue to force strong to locally
    near-gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several
    days. From late Sat through Mon night, trades over the Gulf of
    Honduras will increase to fresh to locally strong. Elsewhere,
    winds will be moderate or weaker.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A frontal trough extends from 31N44W to 25N53W to 31N65W. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are observed in association with this
    trough, mainly N of 25N between 55W and 70W. The remainder of
    the forecast waters are dominated by high pressure, with the main
    center of 1023 mb located near the Azores. The pressure gradient
    between the high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is
    promoting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of 20N and E of 20W,
    including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
    observed E of the Lesser Antilles to about 40W, and also just N
    of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
    are in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into
    the Windward Passage will be fresh to locally strong through
    early next week. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-Azores High situated
    along 30N should support moderate or weaker winds across the
    remaining forecast waters for the next several days.

    $$
    GR

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 04:50:52 2026
    780
    AXNT20 KNHC 120450
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0430 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W-38W, south of 24N, moving
    westward at 15 to 20 kt. The portions of the wave N of 18N is
    shifting northwestward, forced by middle level southeasterly flow
    behind it. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 25N near
    this portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is also
    about the southern portion of the wave, from 07.5N to 12N between
    34W and 44W.

    A tropical wave previously analyzed over the central Caribbean
    along 76W is no longer clearly evident, and has been dropped from
    the 00Z analysis. However, a wind surge is suggested across that
    area, and is approaching the next tropical wave across the
    western Caribbean.

    A second tropical wave is over the NW Caribbean near 85W-86W,
    south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to
    locally numerous squalls and thunderstorms are across the NW basin
    and Gulf of Honduras, from 15.5N to 20.5N between 78W and 86w.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted about the eastern Pacific
    monsoon trough and Central America and into the eastern Pacific
    waters, affecting parts of Honduras, Nicaragua. Costa Rica and
    Panama.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Senegal near 14N17W, and continues to 09N21W to 13N32W to 11N39W.
    The ITCZ extends from 10.5N43W to the coast of Venezuela near
    08.5N61W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
    wave, numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to
    12N between 47W and 61W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Evening convection across the basin has diminished significantly
    in recent hours, with scattered moderate convection continuing
    across the Florida Big Bend N of 27N. A very weak pressure pattern
    prevails across the Gulf basin, with 1017 mb high pressure over
    north-central Florida yielding a generally light to gentle
    anticyclonic wind flow. Moderate E to NE winds prevail across NW
    and W coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of the
    typical surface trough over the peninsula, while moderate to
    locally fresh winds are near the coast of northeastern Mexico and
    south Texas. Seas are 3 ft or less basin-wide, except 3-5 ft
    within 120 nm of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south
    Texas.

    For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the NE Gulf
    waters during the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh
    speeds each night off the W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal
    trough moving toward the SW Gulf. By the middle of next week, a
    building ridge over the eastern United States and a frontal trough
    will combine to increase winds to fresh speeds over the Gulf
    waters N of 23N.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Weak high pressure is centered N of the basin, between the Bahamas
    and Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge
    and the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds and
    rough seas over much of the central Caribbean S of 18N, as noted
    in recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8 to 11 ft S of
    17N over the south- central Caribbean. Elsewhere moderate to
    locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are evident, with the
    exception of light to gentle winds over the NW Caribbean. An
    upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean is enhancing convective
    activity associated with the tropical wave across the western
    basin. Fair weather prevails across the area E of 78W.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
    ridge north of the area and lower pressures associated with the
    Colombian Low will continue to force strong to locally near-gale
    easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas over the
    central Caribbean for the next several days. Meanwhile, moderate
    to fresh easterly breezes are expected over the next few days in
    the eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the
    Gulf of Honduras late Sat through Mon morning. Elsewhere, moderate
    or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will be prevalent.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A frontal trough extends from 31N44.5W to 25N53W to 31N64W. Upper
    level low pressure located E of the southeast Bahamas is
    supportingscattered showers and thunderstorms S of this trough,
    from 24.5N to 28.5N between 55W and 73W. The remainder of the
    forecast waters are dominated by high pressure, with a 1026 mb
    high center of 1023 mb located offshore of NW Spain, and 1018 mb
    high near 28N69W. The pressure gradient between the eastern
    Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is
    promoting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of 16N and E of 22W,
    including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
    observed E of the Lesser Antilles to about 50W, where seas are 5
    to 7 ft, and also along the N coast of Hispaniola. Moderate or
    weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are, in general, moderate
    across the Atlantic forecast waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate
    the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days. Trades north
    of Hispaniola into the Windward Passage will be fresh to locally
    strong through early next week. Looking ahead, a building ridge
    over the eastern United States and a frontal trough will combine
    to increase winds to fresh speeds and build seas to locally rough
    north of the Bahamas and W of 70W starting early next week and
    continuing through Wed night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
    and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

    $$
    Stripling

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 04:50:56 2026
    781
    AXNT20 KNHC 120450
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0430 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W-38W, south of 24N, moving
    westward at 15 to 20 kt. The portions of the wave N of 18N is
    shifting northwestward, forced by middle level southeasterly flow
    behind it. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 25N near
    this portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is also
    about the southern portion of the wave, from 07.5N to 12N between
    34W and 44W.

    A tropical wave previously analyzed over the central Caribbean
    along 76W is no longer clearly evident, and has been dropped from
    the 00Z analysis. However, a wind surge is suggested across that
    area, and is approaching the next tropical wave across the
    western Caribbean.

    A second tropical wave is over the NW Caribbean near 85W-86W,
    south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to
    locally numerous squalls and thunderstorms are across the NW basin
    and Gulf of Honduras, from 15.5N to 20.5N between 78W and 86w.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted about the eastern Pacific
    monsoon trough and Central America and into the eastern Pacific
    waters, affecting parts of Honduras, Nicaragua. Costa Rica and
    Panama.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Senegal near 14N17W, and continues to 09N21W to 13N32W to 11N39W.
    The ITCZ extends from 10.5N43W to the coast of Venezuela near
    08.5N61W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
    wave, numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to
    12N between 47W and 61W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Evening convection across the basin has diminished significantly
    in recent hours, with scattered moderate convection continuing
    across the Florida Big Bend N of 27N. A very weak pressure pattern
    prevails across the Gulf basin, with 1017 mb high pressure over
    north-central Florida yielding a generally light to gentle
    anticyclonic wind flow. Moderate E to NE winds prevail across NW
    and W coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of the
    typical surface trough over the peninsula, while moderate to
    locally fresh winds are near the coast of northeastern Mexico and
    south Texas. Seas are 3 ft or less basin-wide, except 3-5 ft
    within 120 nm of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south
    Texas.

    For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the NE Gulf
    waters during the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh
    speeds each night off the W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal
    trough moving toward the SW Gulf. By the middle of next week, a
    building ridge over the eastern United States and a frontal trough
    will combine to increase winds to fresh speeds over the Gulf
    waters N of 23N.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Weak high pressure is centered N of the basin, between the Bahamas
    and Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge
    and the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds and
    rough seas over much of the central Caribbean S of 18N, as noted
    in recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8 to 11 ft S of
    17N over the south- central Caribbean. Elsewhere moderate to
    locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are evident, with the
    exception of light to gentle winds over the NW Caribbean. An
    upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean is enhancing convective
    activity associated with the tropical wave across the western
    basin. Fair weather prevails across the area E of 78W.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
    ridge north of the area and lower pressures associated with the
    Colombian Low will continue to force strong to locally near-gale
    easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas over the
    central Caribbean for the next several days. Meanwhile, moderate
    to fresh easterly breezes are expected over the next few days in
    the eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the
    Gulf of Honduras late Sat through Mon morning. Elsewhere, moderate
    or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will be prevalent.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A frontal trough extends from 31N44.5W to 25N53W to 31N64W. Upper
    level low pressure located E of the southeast Bahamas is
    supportingscattered showers and thunderstorms S of this trough,
    from 24.5N to 28.5N between 55W and 73W. The remainder of the
    forecast waters are dominated by high pressure, with a 1026 mb
    high center of 1023 mb located offshore of NW Spain, and 1018 mb
    high near 28N69W. The pressure gradient between the eastern
    Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is
    promoting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of 16N and E of 22W,
    including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
    observed E of the Lesser Antilles to about 50W, where seas are 5
    to 7 ft, and also along the N coast of Hispaniola. Moderate or
    weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are, in general, moderate
    across the Atlantic forecast waters.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate
    the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days. Trades north
    of Hispaniola into the Windward Passage will be fresh to locally
    strong through early next week. Looking ahead, a building ridge
    over the eastern United States and a frontal trough will combine
    to increase winds to fresh speeds and build seas to locally rough
    north of the Bahamas and W of 70W starting early next week and
    continuing through Wed night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
    and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

    $$
    Stripling

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 09:30:26 2026
    177
    AXNT20 KNHC 120929
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0925 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W, south of 25N, moving
    westward at 15 to 20 kt. The portions of the wave N of 18N is
    shifting northwestward, forced by middle level southeasterly flow
    behind it. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 25N near
    this portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is also
    about the southern portion of the wave, from 07N to 12N between
    34W and 44W.

    The tropical wave previously analyzed around 86W has moved into
    the eastern Pacific, please read the Tropical Weather Discussion
    (TWDEP) for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Senegal near 14N17W, and continues to 10N22W to 14N33W to 10N43W.
    The ITCZ extends from 10N45W to the coast of Venezuela near
    10N61W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted
    from 08N to 12N between 46W and 62W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    High pressure over northern Florida and lower pressures over
    Mexico support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and
    moderate seas west of 94W and north of 23N. Moderate easterly
    winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the Bay of Campeche.
    ELsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A few
    showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the eastern
    Gulf waters.

    For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the NE Gulf waters
    during the weekend. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds each night
    off the W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal trough moving toward
    the SW Gulf. By Tue night, a building ridge over the eastern
    United States and a frontal trough will combine to increase winds
    to fresh to locally strong speeds and build seas over the Gulf
    waters N of 23N into late next week. Conditions will improve late
    next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Weak high pressure is centered N of the basin, between the
    Bahamas and Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the associated
    ridge and the Colombian low supports fresh to near gale-force
    easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central
    Caribbean S of 18N. A buoy near 14N76W is showing seas to 10 ft.
    Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in
    the eastern Caribbean, while moderate winds and seas are prevalent
    elsewhere.

    An upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean is producing scattered
    showers and isolated thunderstorms. Fair weather prevails across
    the area E of 78W.

    For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical
    ridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with
    the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to locally
    near-gale easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough
    seas over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Gusts
    to gale force may occur tonight off Colombia. Meanwhile, moderate
    to fresh easterly breezes are expected over the next few days in
    the eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the
    Gulf of Honduras this evening through Mon morning. Elsewhere,
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    An upper-level trough in the SW N Atlantic is producing scattered
    showers and isolated thunderstorms over a good portion of the
    basin, especially between Bermuda and the Bahamas. At the surface,
    a weak high pressure dominates forcing moderate or weaker winds
    and slight to moderate seas west of 55W.

    A broad high pressure centered off Portugal supports moderate to
    locally fresh easterly winds between the Lesser Antilles and 35W.
    Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted east of
    35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas
    prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection is noted between Bermuda and the Bahamas
    associated with an upper- level trough. At the surface, the
    subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the
    next several days. Trades north of Hispaniola into the Windward
    Passage will be fresh to locally strong through early next week.
    Looking ahead, a building ridge over the eastern United States and
    a frontal trough will combine to increase winds to fresh to
    locally strong speeds and build seas to rough north of the Bahamas
    and W of 70W starting Tue and continuing into Thu. Elsewhere,
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

    $$
    Delgado

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 09:30:30 2026
    178
    AXNT20 KNHC 120930
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0925 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W, south of 25N, moving
    westward at 15 to 20 kt. The portions of the wave N of 18N is
    shifting northwestward, forced by middle level southeasterly flow
    behind it. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 25N near
    this portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is also
    about the southern portion of the wave, from 07N to 12N between
    34W and 44W.

    The tropical wave previously analyzed around 86W has moved into
    the eastern Pacific, please read the Tropical Weather Discussion
    (TWDEP) for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Senegal near 14N17W, and continues to 10N22W to 14N33W to 10N43W.
    The ITCZ extends from 10N45W to the coast of Venezuela near
    10N61W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted
    from 08N to 12N between 46W and 62W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    High pressure over northern Florida and lower pressures over
    Mexico support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and
    moderate seas west of 94W and north of 23N. Moderate easterly
    winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the Bay of Campeche.
    ELsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A few
    showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the eastern
    Gulf waters.

    For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the NE Gulf waters
    during the weekend. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds each night
    off the W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal trough moving toward
    the SW Gulf. By Tue night, a building ridge over the eastern
    United States and a frontal trough will combine to increase winds
    to fresh to locally strong speeds and build seas over the Gulf
    waters N of 23N into late next week. Conditions will improve late
    next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Weak high pressure is centered N of the basin, between the
    Bahamas and Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the associated
    ridge and the Colombian low supports fresh to near gale-force
    easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central
    Caribbean S of 18N. A buoy near 14N76W is showing seas to 10 ft.
    Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in
    the eastern Caribbean, while moderate winds and seas are prevalent
    elsewhere.

    An upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean is producing scattered
    showers and isolated thunderstorms. Fair weather prevails across
    the area E of 78W.

    For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical
    ridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with
    the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to locally
    near-gale easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough
    seas over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Gusts
    to gale force may occur tonight off Colombia. Meanwhile, moderate
    to fresh easterly breezes are expected over the next few days in
    the eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the
    Gulf of Honduras this evening through Mon morning. Elsewhere,
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    An upper-level trough in the SW N Atlantic is producing scattered
    showers and isolated thunderstorms over a good portion of the
    basin, especially between Bermuda and the Bahamas. At the surface,
    a weak high pressure dominates forcing moderate or weaker winds
    and slight to moderate seas west of 55W.

    A broad high pressure centered off Portugal supports moderate to
    locally fresh easterly winds between the Lesser Antilles and 35W.
    Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted east of
    35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas
    prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection is noted between Bermuda and the Bahamas
    associated with an upper- level trough. At the surface, the
    subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the
    next several days. Trades north of Hispaniola into the Windward
    Passage will be fresh to locally strong through early next week.
    Looking ahead, a building ridge over the eastern United States and
    a frontal trough will combine to increase winds to fresh to
    locally strong speeds and build seas to rough north of the Bahamas
    and W of 70W starting Tue and continuing into Thu. Elsewhere,
    moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

    $$
    Delgado

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